0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page i TAIWAN 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page ii This page intentionally left blank 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page iii TAIWAN Nation-State or Province? FIFTH EDITION John F. Copper Rhodes College A Member of the Perseus Books Group 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 4:53 PM Page iv Copyright © 2009 by Westview Press Published by Westview Press, A Member of the Perseus Books Group Every effort has been made to secure required permissions to use all images, maps, and other art in- cluded in this volume. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, address Westview Press, 2465 Central Avenue, Boulder, CO 80301. Find us on the World Wide Web at www.westviewpress.com. Westview Press books are available at special discounts for bulk purchases in the United States by cor- porations, institutions, and other organizations. For more information, please contact the Special Mar- kets Department at the Perseus Books Group, 2300 Chestnut Street, Suite 200, Philadelphia, PA 19103, or call (800) 810-4145, ext. 5000, or e-mail [email protected]. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Copper, John Franklin. Taiwan : nation-state or province? / John F. Copper. — 5th ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8133-4422-5 (alk. paper) 1. Taiwan. 2. Taiwan—International status. I. Title. DS799.C67 2009 951.24'9—dc22 2008034596 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page v To My Loving Wife 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page vi This page intentionally left blank 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 4:53 PM Page vii CONTENTS Preface xi Acronyms xiii Map of Taiwan xiv 1 THE LAND AND THE PEOPLE 1 Physical Setting, 2 Climate, Soil, and Natural Resources, 6 Population, 8 Ethnic Groups, 11 Culture, 15 Transportation and Communications, 18 The Media, 21 Tourism, 24 Notes, 26 2 HISTORY 29 Prehistory and Early History, 30 Western and Chinese Rule, 33 Part of the Japanese Empire, 37 World War II, 40 Part of China Again, 43 Taiwan as the Republic of China, 46 Taiwan Ruled by Chiang Ching-kuo, 50 Taiwan Under Lee Teng-hui, 53 Chen Shui-bian’s Taiwan, 57 Notes, 61 vii 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page viii viii • Contents 3 SOCIETY 67 Social Structure and Order, 68 Ethnic Issues, 70 Languages and Religions, 76 Early Forces of Social Change, 82 Economic Development and Social Change, 86 Education, 91 Social Welfare, 96 Other Social Problems, 99 Notes, 102 4 POLITICAL SYSTEM 107 Political Culture and Tradition, 108 The Constitution, 111 The National Assembly and the Presidency, 116 The Five-Branch Government, 120 Local Government, 127 Political Parties, 131 Elections, 138 Ideology, Modernization, and the Future, 143 Notes, 146 5 THE ECONOMY 151 The Economy to 1950, 152 Economic Recovery and Boom: 1950–2000, 155 Economic Growth Strategies, 161 Key Industries and the Taiwan “Economic Miracle,”165 The Labor Force, 168 Trade, Investment, and Energy, 172 A Model of Economic Development, 178 The Economy Under Chen Shui-bian, 180 Notes, 182 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page ix Contents • ix 6 FOREIGN AND MILITARY POLICIES 187 Background, 188 Diplomatic Decline and Partial Recovery, 190 Domestic Affairs and Foreign Policy, 193 Taiwan’s National Security Policy, 197 Taiwan and the United States, 202 Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China, 207 Taiwan and the Rest of the World, 213 Ties with International Organizations, 218 Notes, 222 7 THE FUTURE 227 Beginning Assumptions, 228 External or Global Variables, 233 Internal or Domestic Variables, 238 Alternative Futures, 244 Summing Up, 249 Selected Bibliography 251 Index 261 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page x This page intentionally left blank 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page xi PREFACE According to a recent edition of the US Central Intelligence Agency’s often-cited World Factbook there are 268 “entities” in the world, of which 192 are “independent states” and 63 are “dependencies and areas of special sovereignty.” Taiwan alone is in the category of “other.” The reason it is in this category is because whether Tai- wan is a sovereign nation-state or a province of China is in question. Much else about Taiwan is either unique or uncertain, or both. In the past Taiwan was called a “pariah nation”—an authoritarian country diplomatically isolated. But even before it lost that opprobrium Taiwan became widely hailed as a “model country” for its economic (rapid growth with equity) and political (quick but peaceful democratization) “miracles.” Taiwan ranks very high in almost all of the criteria used to measure globalization— trade, foreign investment, travel in and out, etc. Yet it is the world’s most isolated nation (if it is a nation) by other criteria—ranking last in memberships in interna- tional organizations and second to the last in the number of foreign embassies it hosts. Taiwan is the only important “national entity” not a member of the United Nations. Taiwan has one of the best militaries in the world. It is often listed as a country that is capable of building nuclear and chemical/biological weapons. Some say it has already. Yet Taiwan’s existence is tenuous; it would likely survive but a few days or weeks if the United States were to decline to guarantee its security. Leaders in Beijing say Taiwan is China’s territory. In 2005, China’s parliament wrote a law declaring it will use nonpeaceful measures against Taiwan if it declares independence—even though the current government of China has never exercised control over Taiwan, and its leaders say they will not kill their own people in war. America’s Taiwan policy is likewise contradictory. When establishing diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979, the Carter administration agreed that Taiwan is a part of xi 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page xii xii • Preface China. Yet only a few months later Congress passed a law (the only one of its kind) setting the parameters of US-Taiwan relations that treated Taiwan as a sovereign state. So is Taiwan a US protectorate? If America abandons Taiwan, it loses its credibil- ity and its allies in Asia. It may as well retreat into isolationism. If Taiwan were to allow the military forces of another country a presence on the island or proclaim its legal independence, China would likely use its military to prevent either. Thus most analysts label the Taiwan Strait the world’s number one “flashpoint.” The world’s only superpower and its only rising power, both with nuclear weapons targeted at the other, seem poised to fight over Taiwan—the only nonnegotiable is- sue between them. In 1996, they almost did. Taiwan says that being a democracy it should decide its future. It held its first-ever direct presidential election to underscore this. Seeing this as a sign of secession, China conducted intimidating missile tests near Taiwan’s shores. In reaction the United States sent the biggest military force to the area since the Vietnam War. For a while a U.S.-China conflict appeared imminent. When asked about independence or unification with China, the vast majority of Taiwan’s citizens favors the status quo. This arguably isn’t relevant, even though Taiwan is a democracy, and it should matter. Similarly it does not help solve the matter of Taiwan’s status, now or in the future. Two other puzzling facts about Taiwan: It is more linked to China economically than most members of the European Community are to each other. Taiwan’s eco- nomic health literally depends on China, and most people in Taiwan know this. Political links, however, are almost nonexistent. Will economics or politics decide Taiwan’s future? No one seems to know. In the following pages the author will examine the background, details, and problems associated with this “other” place. This means looking at its geography, history, society, economy, political system, and its foreign and defense policy with an eye on the issue of Taiwan having nation-state status or not. The Chinese terms used in this book have been mostly rendered into English script using the Wade-Giles system long used in Taiwan, though with an individual’s name, the author uses the spelling that that person prefers. The term “Beijing” is used for the capital of China; “Peking” is used for that same place when it was writ- ten that way in the past. In some instances, for convenience, the spelling used in China is included in parentheses for names or places. John F. Copper 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 9:50 AM Page xiii ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BCC Broadcasting Corporation of China CAL China Airlines CNA Central News Agency DPP Democratic Progressive Party EPZ export processing zones GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GNP gross national product GSP Generalized System of Preferences JCRR Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction KMT Nationalist Party or Kuomintang NIC newly industrializing country NP New Party PFP People First Party PLA People’s Liberation Army TMD theater missile defense TRA Taiwan Relations Act TSU Taiwan Solidarity Union WTO World Trade Organization xiii 0813344225-FM.qxd 10/27/08 4:53 PM Page xiv Taiwan 0813344225-text.qxd 10/27/08 11:53 AM Page 1 1 THE LAND AND THE PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC just east of the south-central coast of China, the island of Taiwan comprises most of the land area of the nation known officially as the Republic of China—also called Nationalist China, Free China, the Republic of China on Taiwan, the Republic of Taiwan—but most often referred to as just Taiwan.