REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ------

ONACC-NOCC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 49

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 1st to 10th July 2020

July 2020

© ONACC July 2020, all rights reserved

Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC).

Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction

This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°49 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major

international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro st th ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1 to 10 July 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the st th st th for ecasts made for the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2020. This dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action over the entire national territory, especially in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the High Plateaux zone (West and North-West regions) and the Coastal zone (Littoral and South-West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY

II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Tcholliré, Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - and , in the Adamawa Region; - , Yoko, , Yaounde, , Monatélé, , , , and Eséka, in the Center Region; - Yokadouma, Lomié, Bélabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Bétaré-Oya, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang and Mintom in the East Region; - Kribi, Zoetele, Sangmelima, Djoum and Ambam, in the South Region; - Fou mbot and Foumban, in the West Region; - Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, in the Southwest Region; - , , Dizangué, , , Bare-Bakem, , , , Mbanga and , in the Littoral Region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a remarkable decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mindif, Mora, Maroua, in the Far North Region; - Guide, Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Tignère, Ngaoundéré, Mbakaou, Meiganga, Mbe, Tibati, Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Betare Oya, Moloundou and Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region; - Lolod orf and Akom II, in the South Region; - Benakuna, in the Northwest Region. NB1 : During this period, there is a high probability of significant thermal deviations in the town of Poli and Touboro (North Region), Tibati (Adamawa Region) and Bétaré Oya (East Region).

II.2. For Precipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts in excess of historic values recorded for the same period and in excess of those recorded in the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in the following localities: - Maroua, Bogo, Kaélé, Mora, in the Far North Region; - Dembo, Touboro, Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli, Tcholliré, Pitoa and Rey Bouba, in the North Region; - Mbakaou, Meiganga, Ngaoundal, Banyo, Tibati, Ngaoundéré, in Adamawa Region; - , , , , Monatélé, Yoko, Ngoro, , Tikar Bafia, Nkoteng, and , in the ; - Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Betaré-Oya, Salapoumbe and Yokadouma, in the East Region; - Ndop, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo, Bali, Santa, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkum, Bamenda and Nwa, in the Northwest Region; - Dschang, Bazou, Mbouda, Bafang, Bafoussam, Santchou, Bamendjou, Bazou, Tonga, Bangangté, Foumbot, Foumban and Makam, in the West Region. - Eyumojock, Fontem, Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamuso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuka, Idenau, Mamfe, Akwaya and Upper Bayang, in the Southwest Region. 2 - Douala, Edea, Pouma, Yabassi, , Dibombari, , Njombe, Penja, Mbanga; , Ngambe, Dizangué, Mouanko, Ndom, Nyanon and Song Loulou, in the Littoral Region.

III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th July 2020

1) For precipitations e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone

During this period we expect: A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - much higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2020 in the a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone localities of Mamfe, Akwaya, Upper Bayang, Bamusso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuk, Idenau, A high probability of recording; Eyumojock, Fontem and Nguti in the South West region. - rainfall amounts around the average recorded during - higher than the volume registered in the dekad from the 21st to 30th June 2020 in the the dekad of 21st to 30th June 2020 in Maroua, Bogo localities of Douala, Edea, Pouma, Yabassi, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Ndjombe, Kaele Mora, in the Far North region; Penja and Mbanga Manjo, Ngambe, Dizangue and Mouanko; around the mean at

On the other hand, they will remain around average in Ndom, Nyanon and Song Loulou in the Littoral region.

Gamboura, Mokolo, Mindif, Mogodé, Makari, NB3: 1) This dekad is marked by: Kousséri, Maga, Waza, Bourrah and Hina. - rainfall amounts above the average recorded during a high probability of very intense rainfall in the North-West Region (including the st th the dekad of 21 to 30 June 2020 in Dembo, Touboro, localities of Benakuma, Wum and Fundong), the Southwest Region (including the

Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba and localities of Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamusso and Limbé) and the Littoral Region, the West Region, with a significant risk of flooding, landslides and Pitoa in the North region. mudslides, the potential consequences being the destruction of plantations,

NB2: This dekad will be marked by the progressive infrastructure (buildings, electricity poles, etc.) and homes, etc.; setting in of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions).

b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording above-average rainfall amounts recorded in the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in Mbakaou, Meiganga, Ngaoundal, Banyo, Tibati, and Ngaoundéré in the Adamaoua Region Moreover, in the border with Nigeria, notably the localities of Tignère, Mayo Baleo and , these amounts of precipitation will remain around the average recorded in the last dekad. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities ; higher than those recorded in the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in Ngomedzap, Messondo, Bondjock, Biyouha, Monatélé, Yoko, Ngoro, Deuk, Ngambe Tikar Bafia, Nkoteng, Ntui and Akono, in the Central Region; However, these amounts of rainfall will remain around the average in Eséka, Mbalmayo, Obala, Yaounde, Awae, and Nkol-Metet. above the average recorded during the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Betaré-Oya, Salapoumbe and

Yokadouma, in the East Region; However, they will remain around the average recorded at the same time in Ngoyla, Moloundou, Lomié, Garoua Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad as compared to what was registered in the dekad from 21-30 June 2020 Boulai and messamena. st Source: ONACC, June 2020 - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30th June 2020 in Kribi, Nyabizan, Campo, Djoum,

Lolodorf , Akom II, Ambam, Sangmélima, Ebolowa and Zoétélé, in the South Region. d) In the high plateaux zone NB4: : This dekade from July 1 to 10, 2020 corresponds to: A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - the extension of the rainy season in the area of the High Guinean -- well above the historical average and the dekade-half savannahs (Adamawa Region), the High Plateaus (West and Northwest average of 21-30 June 2020 in Ndop, Fundong, Regions), the Monomodal Rain Forest Zone (Littoral and Southwest Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo, Bali, Santa, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkum, Bamenda and Nwa, in the North-West Regions); Region; - the actual installation of the small dry season in the Bimodal Rainforest - well above the historic value recorded in the dekad of area (Centre, South and East Regions). 21 to 30 June 2020 in Dschang, Bazou, Mbouda, Bafang, Bafoussam, Santchou, Bamendjou, Bazou, NB5: During this dekad, there is a high risk of landslides, and mudslide as Tonga, Bangangté, Foumbot, Foumban and Makam, in a result of heavy rains and soil saturation in the Littoral, Northwest, West, the West Region. Southwest, North and Far North Regions.

3 2) For Temperatures a) For Maximum Temperatures Based on the historical maximum temperature averages recorded from 1979 to 2018, including 33.36oC in the Far North Region; 31.71oC in the North Region; 29.10oC in the Adamawa Region; 27.53oC in the Centre Region; 27.30oC in the South Region; 28.10oC in the East Region; 24.73oC in the West Region; 25.41oC in the Northwest Region; 25.99° degrees Celsius in the Southwest Region and 25.62° degrees Celsius in the Littoral Region, there is a high probability of recording average maximum temperatures during this period:

- around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Kaélé and Mindif; below average in Yagoua, Bogo, Kousséri, Makari, Maroua, Mokolo, Maga, waza and Mora, in the Far North - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Furu Awa and Fungom, Wum and Tinto; Region; around the average in Ako, Ndop, Bali, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Benakuma and Nwa, in the North West - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Dembo, Guider, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, region Pitoa, the northern parts of Tcholliré, Poli and Touboro; above-average in the southern parts of - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Magba , Tcholliré, Poli and Touboro in the North Region;- Dschang, Penka Michel, Fokoué, Bandja, Batcham, Bouda, Nkongni, Bazou, Bafoussam, Massagam, - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Meiganga, Ngaoundéré and Tignère; and Bangangté; above-average in Foumbot and Foumban, in the West region; around the historical average in Banyo; above the historical average in Ngaoundal and Tibati, - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Adamawa Region; Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko; around the average in Nguti, Idenau, Fontem, Buea, Kumba, Ekok, - above the historical average recorded at the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Bafia Ngoro, Upper Bayang and Wabane; below the historical average in Eyumojock and Mamfe, In the South West Yoko, Nkoteng, Yaounde, Obala, Monatélé, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko and Eséka, in the Centre region; region; - around the historical average recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Mindourou, - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Ngambè, Manjo, Loum, Ndom, Moloundou; below-average in Garoua-Boulai; above-average in Yokadouma, Lomié, Bélabo, Yingui, and Edéa; above-average in Nyanon, Pouma, Dizangué, Mouanko, Douala, Bare- Bertoua, Batouri, Bétaré-Oya, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang and Mintom in the East region; Bakem, Penja, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Mbanga and Dibombari, in the Littoral Region - Around the historical average recorded at the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Campo and Akom II, Nyabizan, Ebolowa and Lolodorf; above-average in Kribi, Zoétélé, Sangmelima, Djoum and Ambam in the South region;

(a) (b)

Figure 2: Variations in average maximum temperatures for the current dekad (b) compared to those registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018; (a) (Source: ONACC, June 2020)

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st th Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2020 and the average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020, there is a high probability of registering mean maximum temperatures:

- around the decade-old average of 21-30 June 2020 in Kribi, Ebolowa, Sangmélima, Zoétélé st th - below those recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Kaele and Mindif; around the mean in Lolodorf, Nyabizan, Djoum, Ambam, Campo, Akom II, Ma'an, Nyete and Mvangan, in the Kousseri, Maroua, Waza, Maga, Yagoua, Mora, Bogo and Mokolo in the Far North South Region; region; - around the decade-long average of 21-30 June 2020 in Mamfe, Nguti, Mundemba, Fontem, st th - around those recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in in Rey-Bouba, Garoua, Dembo, Guider, Kumba, Buea Muyuka, Limbé, Tiko, Idenau, Eyumojock and Konye, in the South-West Lagdo, Pitoa, the northern part of Tcholliré, the northern part of Touboro and the northern Region;

part of Poli; below the average of the last decade in the southern part of Chulliré, the southern - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Dizangué, Mouanko, Melong, Yabassi, part of Touboro and the southern part of Poli, in the North Region; Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Loum, Manjo, Douala, Ngambè, Ndom and Edéa; above-average st th - around the values recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Tibati, Ngaoundal, Tignere, in Yingui, Nyanon and Pouma, in the Littoral Region;

Banyo, Ngaoundere and Meiganga in the Adamawa region; - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Bali, Kumbo, Tinto, Munkep, - below the decade average of 21-30 June 2020 in Mindourou and Garoua Boulai; around the Bamenda, Santa, Benakuma and Wum, in the North-West Region; average in Yokadouma, Belabo, Moloundou, Abong-Mbang, Batouri, Bertoua, Ngoyla, - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Bafoussam, Kouoptamo, Koutaba,

Lomié and Bétaré-Oya, in the East region; Foumbot, Batcham, Mbouda, Bafang, Bangangté, Dschang, Foumban, Tonga, Bazou, and - around the values recorded from 21st to 30th June 2020 in Bafia Akonolinga, Nanga Makam in the West region. Eboko, Yoko, Ngoro, Monatélé, Yaounde, Obala, Mbalmayo, Yaounde, Nkoteng, Deuk, Mbandjock , Eseka and Messondo, in the Centre Region;

Figure 3: Variations in average maximum temperatures forecast for the dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020 (b) compared to those recorded in the dekad of June 21-30, 2020 (a). Source: ONACC, June 2020

a b

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020, particular attention should be paid to localities that have a very high probability of experiencing an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to their

historical averages for the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include:

- Tcholliré, Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Ngaoundal and Tibati, in the Adamawa Region; - Bafia Ngoro, Yoko, Nkoteng, Yaounde, Obala, Monatélé, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga

Eboko and Eséka, in the Centre Region;

- Yokadouma, Lomié, Bélabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Bétaré-Oya, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang and Mintom in the

East Region; - Kribi, Zoetele, Sangmelima, Djoum and Ambam, in the South Region; - Foumbot and Foumban, in the West Region; - Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, in the Southwest Region;

- Nyanon, Pouma, Dizangué, Mouanko, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Penja, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Mbanga and

Dibombari, in the Littoral Region

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a) For Minimum Temperatures Based on the historical average minimum temperatures registered for the same period from 1979 to 2018, including 23.75oC in the Far North Region; 23oC in the North Region; 20.20oC in the Adamawa Region; 19oC in the Centre Region; 20.78oC in the South Region; 19.67o degrees Celsius in the East Region, 16.29o degrees Celsius in the West Region; 16.57oC in the Northwest Region; 19.60o degrees Celsius in the Southwest Region and 20.2o degrees Celsius in the Littoral Region, there is a high probability of recording minimum temperatures: -around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Waza, Yagoua, Kousseri Mokolo, Kaélé, Bogo,kousseri Bogo and Yagoua; below the historical average recorded at the same time in Mindif, Mora, Maroua, in the Far North region; -around the historical average recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Tcholliré and Rey Bouba; lower than the historical average recorded at the same time in Guide, Poli and Touboro; North region; -below the historical average recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Tignère, Ngaoundéré, Mbakaou, Meiganga, Mbe, Tibati, Meiganga; around the historical average recorded at the same time in Banyo,In the Adamawa region; - around the historical average recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Belabo, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, Lomié, Batouri, Ngoyla and Yokadouma; below the historical average recorded at the same time Betare Oya, Moloundou and (a) Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region; (b) - above the historical average recorded in the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Kribi, Campo and Sangmélima; around the average in Zoétélé, Nyabizan, Ebolowa; Lolodorf and Akom II in the South region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Fundong, Wum Bamenda, Nwa, Bali, Kumbo, Santa and widekum; below-average in Benakuna, in the North-West Region;

- above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Buea, Tiko, Eyumojock and Mamfe; around the average recorded at the same time in Muyuka, Kumba, Bamusso, Mundemba, Nguiti, Fontem, Idenau and Limbé, in the South West region. - above the historical average recorded at the same period of 1979-2018 in Dizangué, Edéa, Mouanko, Mbanga, Douala; around the historical average recorded at the same time in Nkongsamba , Yabassi, Melong, Manjo, Loum and Punjab, in the Littoral. region.

Figure 4: Variation of minimum average temperature for the dekad 1st to 10th

July 2020 (b) compared to the averages registered during the same period from 1979 to 2018 (a)

Source: ONACC, June 2020

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Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded during the decade of June 21-30, 2020 and the average minimum temperatures st th forecast for the decade from 1 to 10 July 2020, there is a high probability of recording average minimum temperatures:

- around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Kaélé, Mindif, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, Kousseri, Mora, Maroua, Waza and Mokolo, in the; Far North region; - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Pitoa, Lagdo, Tchollire, Garoua, Poli, Mandingrin, Touboro and Rey Bouba, in the; North region; - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Tibati, Mbakaou, Banyo, Meiganga and Ngaoundéré, in the Adamawa region; - around the average recorded in the decade of 21-30 June 2020 in Obala, Mbandjock, Figure 4: Variations in average minimum temperatures for the

Nkoteng, Mbalmayo, Akonolinga, Ngoro, Eséka, Nanga Eboko, Yaoundé, Yoko and current dekad (b) compared to historical averages from 1979 to 2018 for the same period. Monatélé, in the Centre region; Source: ONACC, June 2020 - around the average recorded in the period of 21 to 30 June 2020 in Abong-Mbang, (b) Bertoua, Garoua-Boulai, Batouri, Yokadouma, Lomié, Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, (a) Ngoyla, Betaré Oya , Yokadouma and Moloundou, in the East region;

- above the june 21-30, 2020 average in Nyabisan, Lolodorf and Ambam; below average in Djoum and Sangmelima; around the average in Ebolowa, Zoetélé, Kribi, Campo and Akom II, in the South region; - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Douala, Mouanko, Yabassi, Loum, Melong Manjo, Mbanga, Mouanko, Nkongsamba, Edéa, Dizangué and Punja Littoral Region; - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Dschang, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bamendjou, Bamendjing, Bafang, Bazou, Tonga, Bangangté, Foumban and

Magba, in the West Region; - around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Wum, Nwa, Batibo, Bamenda, Fundong, Kumbo, Santa, Bali, Benakuna and Widikum, in the North-West Region; Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures forecast for the -around the average recorded from 21 to 30 June 2020 in Mamfe, Eyumojock, Guti, dekade from 1 to 10 July 2020 (b) compared to those recorded at Buea, Tiko, Kumba, Mundemba, Idenau, Dikome Balue, Bamusso and Muyuka, in the the dekade of 21 to 30 June 2020 (a). Source : ONACC, June 2020 South-West Region.

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Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 1st to 10th July 2020, particular attention should be paid to the localities that have a very high probability of experiencing a decrease in average minimum temperatures compared to its historical values

for the same period from 1979 to 2018, which could lead to cold nights. They include;

- Mindif, Mora, Maroua, in the Far North Region; - Guide, Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Tignère, Ngaoundéré, Mbakaou, Meiganga, Mbe, Tibati, Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region;

- Betare Oya, Moloundou and Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region;

- Lolodorf and Akom II, in the South Region;

- Benakuma, in the Northwest Region.

9 IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: d) In the water and energy sector: A high risk of recording cases of: - a high risk of registering cases of destruction of electricity production and transmission - destruction of crop fields such as banana plantations, maize fields, fruit tree equipment and materials (poles, transformers etc...) as a result of intense rains plantations etc., in the North-West, South-West, West, Adamawa and Littoral accompanied by strong winds, as well as lightning in the Centre, Adamawa, East, South, regions; millet, maize, peanut, cotton fields in the North and Far North regions, North West, South West, West and Littoral regions ; following heavy rains and strong winds and storms; - a high risk of contamination of water catchment areas by polluted runoff in the Centre, - degradation of stocks or reserves of agricultural produce due to humidity, in the Adamawa, East, South, North-West, South, North West, South West, West and North-West, South-West, West, Adamawa and Littoral regions; and heavy rains Littoral regions. in the North and Far North regions; - tuber and root rot in the soil due to waterlogging in the North-West, South-West, e) In the Public Works sector: West and Littoral regions. high risk of recording cases of:

- increased weed proliferation and diseases as a result of continuous rainfall in -roadway degradation in the Centre, Adamawa, East, South, North-West, Southwest, West many localities in the Centre, East, South, North-West, South-West, West, and Littoral, North and Far North regions, as a result of heavy rains coupled with the Littoral and Adamaoua regions obstruction of waste disposal channels; - flooding of crops in low lying areas of the Centre, East, South, North-West, -Destruction of bridges and culverts in some localities in the Northwest, West, Southwest, South -West, West and Littoral regions, following intense rains; Centre, South, Littoral, North and Far North regions as a result of heavy rains. b) In the health sector: f) In the environment and biodiversity sector: A risk of recording cases of: A high risk of registering: - an increase in cholera cases in many localities and some large towns in the - landslides and mudslides as a result of heavy rains and waterlogging of soil in the Sudano -Sahelian and Littoral zones; Littoral, Northwest, West and Southwest Regions; - an increase in cases of other water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, - floods in the coastal area, particularly in the localities of Limbe, Tiko, Buea, in the dysentery, etc.), following the poor quality of drinking water, in the five agro- South-West Region and Douala, Yabassi and Mouanko, in the Littoral Region, in the ecological zones and particularly in precarious areas and large agglomerations; North (Garoua) and in the Far North (Maroua, Maga etc.) Regions.

- an increase in cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, etc.), in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; g) For the urban sector: - an exacerbation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, a high risk of registering cases of : hypertension, systemic disorders in children, women in menopause, people - degradation of roads in the Centre, Adamawa, East, South, North-West, Southwest, West suffering from diabetes, in most localities of the country during this period. and Littoral, North and Far North regions, as a result of heavy rains coupled with the obstruction of waste disposal channels; c) In the livestock sector: -Destruction of bridges and culverts in some localities in the Northwest, West, Southwest, - numerous cases of epizootic diseases due to humid and cold weather in some Centre, South, Littoral, North and Far North regions as a result of heavy rains. localities in the southern part of the country notably in Adamawa, East, Centre, Littoral, South, West, North West and South West regions;

10 st th VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2020

Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Agro Ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High plateau Savannah Forest Regions Far North North Adamawa East Centre South West Nord West South West Littoral

Minimum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 24,51 23,37 20,38 19,55 19 20,63 16,55 16,67 19,54 20

Trend forecasts

Success rates of Forecasts (%) 93 91,3 93,8 90,8 95,2 95 94,4 96,7 95 91,8

Maximum temperatures

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(°C) 34,34 32,29 29,20 28,55 28 27,83 24,73 25,50 26,28 25,94

Trend forecasts

Forecasts success rates (%) 75,1 77 83 80,2 79,4 81 78,3 80 82,7 80,4

Precipitations

Historic mean from 1979 to 2018(mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204

Trend forecasts ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈

Forecasts success rates (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

≈ = Around the mean; = Reduction; = Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - Continue to sow and/or maintain suitable crops in the different areas according to the 2020 agricultural calendar proposed by ONACC for the current agricultural season. -The early harvesting of certain crops such as maize, roots and tubers according to agricultural schedules in the southern regions of the country.

b) In the health sector - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); - Avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of homes; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gears in localities experiencing cold nights during this period; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; - Strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of cholera and their care.

c) In the livestock sector - organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases in the five agro-ecological zones

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.onacc.cm

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