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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 1St to 10Th July 2020

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Dekadal Climate Alerts and Probable Impacts for the Period 1St to 10Th July 2020 REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC-NOCC www.onacc.cm; [email protected] ; Tel : (237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 49 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 1st to 10th July 2020 July 2020 © ONACC July 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°49 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro st th ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 1 to 10 July 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also makes an assessment of the st th st th for ecasts made for the dekad from 21 to 30 June 2020. This dekad from 1 to 10 July 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture-bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-easterly direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action over the entire national territory, especially in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the High Plateaux zone (West and North-West regions) and the Coastal zone (Littoral and South-West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Tcholliré, Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Ngaoundal and Tibati, in the Adamawa Region; - Bafia Ngoro, Yoko, Nkoteng, Yaounde, Obala, Monatélé, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko and Eséka, in the Center Region; - Yokadouma, Lomié, Bélabo, Bertoua, Batouri, Bétaré-Oya, Ngoyla, Abong-Mbang and Mintom in the East Region; - Kribi, Zoetele, Sangmelima, Djoum and Ambam, in the South Region; - Fou mbot and Foumban, in the West Region; - Mundemba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, in the Southwest Region; - Nyanon, Pouma, Dizangué, Mouanko, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Penja, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Mbanga and Dibombari, in the Littoral Region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a remarkable decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mindif, Mora, Maroua, in the Far North Region; - Guide, Poli and Touboro, in the North Region; - Tignère, Ngaoundéré, Mbakaou, Meiganga, Mbe, Tibati, Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Betare Oya, Moloundou and Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region; - Lolod orf and Akom II, in the South Region; - Benakuna, in the Northwest Region. NB1 : During this period, there is a high probability of significant thermal deviations in the town of Poli and Touboro (North Region), Tibati (Adamawa Region) and Bétaré Oya (East Region). II.2. For Precipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts in excess of historic values recorded for the same period and in excess of those recorded in the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in the following localities: - Maroua, Bogo, Kaélé, Mora, in the Far North Region; - Dembo, Touboro, Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli, Tcholliré, Pitoa and Rey Bouba, in the North Region; - Mbakaou, Meiganga, Ngaoundal, Banyo, Tibati, Ngaoundéré, in Adamawa Region; - Ngomedzap, Messondo, Bondjock, Biyouha, Monatélé, Yoko, Ngoro, Deuk, Ngambe Tikar Bafia, Nkoteng, Ntui and Akono, in the Centre Region; - Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Betaré-Oya, Salapoumbe and Yokadouma, in the East Region; - Ndop, Fundong, Benakuma, Wum, Kumbo, Bali, Santa, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Nkum, Bamenda and Nwa, in the Northwest Region; - Dschang, Bazou, Mbouda, Bafang, Bafoussam, Santchou, Bamendjou, Bazou, Tonga, Bangangté, Foumbot, Foumban and Makam, in the West Region. - Eyumojock, Fontem, Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamuso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuka, Idenau, Mamfe, Akwaya and Upper Bayang, in the Southwest Region. 2 - Douala, Edea, Pouma, Yabassi, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Njombe, Penja, Mbanga; Manjo, Ngambe, Dizangué, Mouanko, Ndom, Nyanon and Song Loulou, in the Littoral Region. III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 1st to 10th July 2020 1) For precipitations e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone During this period we expect: A high probability of recording precipitation quantities; - much higher than what was recorded in the dekad from 21st to 30th June 2020 in the a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone localities of Mamfe, Akwaya, Upper Bayang, Bamusso, Buea, Limbe, Muyuk, Idenau, A high probability of recording; Eyumojock, Fontem and Nguti in the South West region. - rainfall amounts around the average recorded during - higher than the volume registered in the dekad from the 21st to 30th June 2020 in the st th the dekad of 21 to 30 June 2020 in Maroua, Bogo localities of Douala, Edea, Pouma, Yabassi, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Ndjombe, Kaele Mora, in the Far North region; Penja and Mbanga Manjo, Ngambe, Dizangue and Mouanko; around the mean at On the other hand, they will remain around average in Ndom, Nyanon and Song Loulou in the Littoral region. Gamboura, Mokolo, Mindif, Mogodé, Makari, NB3: 1) This dekad is marked by: Kousséri, Maga, Waza, Bourrah and Hina. - rainfall amounts above the average recorded during a high probability of very intense rainfall in the North-West Region (including the st th the dekad of 21 to 30 June 2020 in Dembo, Touboro, localities of Benakuma, Wum and Fundong), the Southwest Region (including the Garoua, Lagdo, Guider, Poli, Tchollire, Rey Bouba and localities of Nguti, Toko, Konye Mundemba, Bamusso and Limbé) and the Littoral Region, the West Region, with a significant risk of flooding, landslides and Pitoa in the North region. mudslides, the potential consequences being the destruction of plantations, NB2: This dekad will be marked by the progressive infrastructure (buildings, electricity poles, etc.) and homes, etc.; setting in of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions). b) In the Guinean high savannah zone A high probability of recording above-average rainfall amounts recorded in the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in Mbakaou, Meiganga, Ngaoundal, Banyo, Tibati, and Ngaoundéré in the Adamaoua Region Moreover, in the border with Nigeria, notably the localities of Tignère, Mayo Baleo and Bankim, these amounts of precipitation will remain around the average recorded in the last dekad. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities ; higher than those recorded in the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in Ngomedzap, Messondo, Bondjock, Biyouha, Monatélé, Yoko, Ngoro, Deuk, Ngambe Tikar Bafia, Nkoteng, Ntui and Akono, in the Central Region; However, these amounts of rainfall will remain around the average in Eséka, Mbalmayo, Obala, Yaounde, Awae, Endom and Nkol-Metet. above the average recorded during the dekad of 21-30 June 2020 in Belabo, Mindourou, Batouri, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Betaré-Oya, Salapoumbe and Yokadouma, in the East Region; However, they will remain around the average recorded at the same time in Ngoyla, Moloundou, Lomié, Garoua Figure 1: Variation in precipitation quantities for the current dekad as compared to what was registered in the dekad from 21-30 June 2020 Boulai and messamena. st Source: ONACC, June 2020 - around the mean recorded in the dekad from 21 to 30th June 2020 in Kribi, Nyabizan, Campo, Djoum, Lolodorf
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