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Kunnskapsgrunnlag/Områdeanalyse NORDLAND, TROMS OG FINNMARK, SAPMI Kunnskapsgrunnlag/områdeanalyse NORDLAND, TROMS OG FINNMARK, SAPMI Oktober 31, 2020 Jukka Teräs, Vigdis Nygård, Sindre Myhr, Stig Karlstad NORCE Samfunnsforskning NORCE N o rw e gi a n R e se ar c h C e n tr e AS www.norceresearch.no Table of contents Foreword ........................................................................................................ 2 Executive Summary .................................................................................... 2 Background ................................................................................................ 3 Regional facts ............................................................................................. 4 3.1 Demography .......................................................................................... 6 3.2 Labour market and industry structure ................................................. 10 3.3 Health & Healthcare ............................................................................ 17 3.4 Smart & green & sustainable North Norway ....................................... 21 3.5 Infrastructure and connectivity ........................................................... 25 3.6 Sámi area ............................................................................................ 29 3.7 Functional area ................................................................................... 35 3.8 Smart specialisation ............................................................................ 36 3.9 Nordic comparison .............................................................................. 38 4. Conclusions / SWOT analysis, North Norway ............................................ 40 References ................................................................................................... 42 1 NORCE N o rw e gi a n R e se ar c h C e n tr e AS www.norceresearch.no Foreword As an assignment by Troms & Finnmark County Council, Nordland County Council and Sametinget, an expert work has been made by NORCE to prepare a knowledge base Områdeanalyse/Kunnskapsgrunnlag on North Norway with relevance to the EU programmes SV/FI/NO, Kolarctic, and NPA taking place in the years 2021-2027. The expert work took place in September-October 2020. The reporting of the work includes Kunnskapsgrunnlag/Områdeanalyse del A (this document) and Kunnskapsgrunnlag/Områdeanalyse del B (Appendix with additional background information and statistics). Executive Summary Norway has decided to participate in the EU programmes SV/FI/NO, Kolarctic and NPA under the period 2021-2027. This document is a joint knowledge base (Områdeanalyse/Kunnskapsgrunnlag) for the North Norway regions and Sametinget to be used in the preparation of the SV/FI/NO, Kolarctic and NPA programmes. The document includes an analysis of the themes of regional development in North Norway selected by the reference group of the project. The key findings of the analysis include: • North Norway has the same major strongholds as before the previous EU programme period 2014-2020, including abundance of natural resources and high level of knowledge especially related to Arctic conditions • Major challenges include e.g. demographic development and attracting competent labour force • Climate change and green transition are high in the agenda, including new international initiatives such as e.g. the EU Green Deal, with a significant effect on North Norway • The unexpected COVID-19 pandemics in 2020 has changed the economic and social landscape in North Norway, too, with dramatic changes in the outlook of e.g. tourism and travel. The regional analysis needs to be complemented by constantly updating information of COVID-19 and its consequences to North Norway. Recovery from COVID-19 in the North, as well as building up resilience for potential future shocks, should be given extra attention. The cornerstones of the EU policy for 2021-2027 are well-suited for the EU programme development in North Norway despite the COVID-19 effect. The major themes of a smarter Europe, a greener and low-carbon Europe, a more connected Europe, a more social Europe, and a Europe closer to citizens fit into the regional development of North Norway in an excellent way. The EU programmes (SV/FI/NO, Kolarctic, and NPA) in 2021-2027 play an essential role especially in unlocking the full potential of interregional and transnational cooperation in the North. 2 NORCE N o rw e gi a n R e se ar c h C e n tr e AS www.norceresearch.no Background Norway has decided to participate in the EU programmes SV/FI/NO, Kolarctic and NPA under the period 2021-2027. Interreg V-A - Sweden-Finland-Norway (Nord) 2021-2027 addresses the most important cross-border challenges linked to the implementation of the Europe 2020 Strategy in the north parts of Sweden, Finland and Norway. Kolarctic 2021-2027 is a financing programme for supporting cooperation between the countries in the North Calotte and northwest Russia. The NPA Northern Periphery and Arctic 2021-2027 programme addresses challenges, joint opportunities and transnational cooperation in the Euro-Arctic zone, parts of the Atlantic zone and parts of the Barents region. In relation to the programmes, the participating regions shall prepare a joint programme document which will be guiding the selection of the prioritized investment and policy areas (out of the ones defined by the EU Commission). The joint programme document should be based on regional analysis and regional SWOT and to be anchored to regional and national strategies, as well as to the relevant EU strategies such as the Baltic Sea Region Strategy and the EU Arctic strategy. In order to have the same understanding of the participating Norwegian regions, KMD has expressed their wish for the North Norway regions and Sametinget to prepare a joint knowledge base (Kunnskapsgrunnlag) to be used in the preparation of the SV/FI/NO, Kolarctic and NPA programmes. The joint knowledge base should be prepared having in mind the five EU policy themes for 2021- 2027: a smarter Europe, a greener and low-carbon Europe, a more connected Europe, a more social Europe, and a Europe closer to citizens (fostering the development of urban, rural and coastal areas and local initiatives). This report is prepared by NORCE. The preparation work has been steered by Troms & Finnmark County Council, Nordland County Council and Sametinget which have also participated in data collection to support the analysis. The Knowledge base for North Norway (KMD 2019), which was prepared for KMD in 2019 by NORCE, has served as one of the major sources for this report, too. COVID-19 pandemics causes significant changes in the business and social environment and expectations of future activities in North Norway. The analysis presented in this report is based on statistics until the end of 2019. The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemics in North Norway, as understood in the situation of October 2020, have been considered under qualitative analysis where relevant in this report. 3 NORCE N o rw e gi a n R e se ar c h C e n tr e AS www.norceresearch.no Regional facts Like most of the northern parts of the Scandinavian countries, North Norway consists of predominantly sparsely populated, remote regions. With a population density of only 5 per km2, large areas of land are mostly unsettled, and the distance and travel time between towns and villages can be long – especially in former Finnmark county, where the population density is 1,6 per km2 and difficult weather and terrain makes travelling challenging and time-consuming. Large rural areas and sparse population equates to difficulties providing basic services to the population, and travel time to necessities like postal services, banks and hospitals can amount to several hours or more in some areas. Table 1 summarizes the basic facts of Northern Norway. Figure 1 illustrates the population density in Northern Norway. Table 1: Regional facts about North Norway. Sources: NORCE, Statistics Norway. Region Area (km2), Population Population Centrality Typology of land (total) (2020) density (1000=most region** central)* Troms & 70 930 243 311 3 per km2 land 668 (Group 5) Predominantly rural, Finnmark (115 871) area remote region Nordland 35 760 241 235 7 per km2 land 648 (Group 5) Predominantly rural, (80 558) area remote region Northern 106 690 484 546 5 per km2 land 658 (Group 5) Norway (196 429) area Norway 304 073 5 367 580 18 per km2 822 (Group 3) (323 809) land area *Weighted average of centrality levels for municipalities. Grouped into 6 groups where 1 is most central, 6 least central.1 **Based on Dijstra & Poelman (2018). 1 See ssb.no/klass/klassifikasjoner/128, retrieved 2020-10-04. 4 NORCE N o rw e gi a n R e se ar c h C e n tr e AS www.norceresearch.no Figure 1: Population per km2 land area, 2020. Sources: NORCE, Statistics Norway and the Norwegian Mapping Authority 5 NORCE N o rw e gi a n R e se ar c h C e n tr e AS www.norceresearch.no 3.1 Demography Population and migration The well-known patterns of an aging population and centralization are central features of northern Norwegian demography. To keep young people and especially competent and relevant labour is a long-standing issue in the region, and more so in the more rural municipalities. Some of the regional centers, such as Alta, Tromsø and Bodø have a history of increasing population, but this is fueled by migration from the less urban parts of northern Norway and from abroad. Domestic migration streams, also from the regional centers, and especially young women,
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