2020 WHAT HAPPENED & WHAT’S NEXT THE 2020 INCUMBENT BEGAN ELECTION DAY IN A HISTORICALLY WEAK POSITION Approval/Economic Approval Presidential Polling Average Clinton ‘96 59%/57% Clinton ‘96 Clinton +9% Bush ‘04 49%/50% Bush ‘04 Bush +1.5% Obama ‘12 9%/44% Obama ‘12 Obama +.07% Trump ‘20 43%/51% Trump ‘20 Biden +7.1%
Generic Congressional Ballot House/Senate/Electoral College Clinton ‘96 D+ 8% Clinton ‘96 +2/-2/379 Bush ‘04 Tied Bush ‘04 +3/+4/286 Obama ‘12 R+ .02% Obama ‘12 +8/+2/304 Trump ‘20 D +7.4% Trump ‘20 +?/-1/232 HISTORIC VOTER TURNOUT BENEFITTED BOTH SIDES KEY SENATE RESULTS 116th Congress: 53R - 47D | 117th Congress: 50R - 48D (Georgia Pending) Democratic Flips Republican Flips Arizona - Mark Kelly Alabama- Tommy Tuberville Colorado - John Hickenlooper Republican Holds Democratic Holds Alaska - Dan Sullivan New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen Iowa - Joni Ernst Michigan - Gary Peters Kansas - Roger Marshall Kentucky - Mitch McConnell Montana - Steve Daines North Carolina - Thom Tillis South Carolina - Lindsey Graham Texas - John Cornyn NEW FACES IN THE SENATE ALL EYES ON GEORGIA - JANUARY 5 GA REGULAR GA SPECIAL Sen. David Perdue (R): 49.7% Raphael Warnock (D): 32.9% Jon Ossoff (D): 47.9% Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 25.9% Shane Hazel (L): 2.3% Rep. Doug Collins (R): 20% Other Dems on ballot: 15.9% Other Reps on ballot: 3.5% KEY DATES Third-party candidates: 2.3% Nov. 18: Mail absentee ballots start to be sent out Dec. 7: Last day to register to vote IN AGGREGATE Dec 14: Early in-person voting starts Republicans-49.4% Jan 5: General Election Runoffs Democrats- 48.8% Other- 2.3% BRIEF HISTORY OF RECENT GEORGIA POLITICS PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS SELECT RUNOFF RESULTS ‘92 Senate YEAR D R General Election - D 49.2% R 47.7% '92 43.7% 42.9% Runoff - R 50.7% D 49.3% '96 45.8% 47.0% ‘08 Senate '00 42.9% 54.7% General Election - R 49.8% D 46.8% Runoff - R 57% D 43% '04 41.3% 57.9% '08 46.9% 52.2% ‘18 Secretary of State General Election - R 49.1% D 48.7% '12 45.5% 53.3% Runoff - R 51.9% D 48.1% '16 45.3% 50.4% There have been 8 statewide runoffs since 1988, '20 49.5% 49.3% Democrats have only won one KEY HOUSE RESULTS 116th Congress: 232D - 197R - 1I | 117th Congress: 219D - 204R (13 Seats Pending) Democratic Flips Republican Flips GA-07: Carolyn Bourdeaux (Open) CA-39: Young Kim (Cisneros) NC-02: Deborah Ross (Open) CA-48: Michelle Steel (Rouda) NC-06: Kathy Manning (Open) FL-26: Carlos Gimenez (Mucarsel-Powell) FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (Shalala) IA-01: Ashley Hinson (Finkenaur) MN-07: Michelle Fischbach (Peterson) MI-03: Peter Meijer (Open) NM-02: Yvette Herrell (Torres Small) NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (Rose) OK-05: Stephanie Bice (Horn) SC-01: Nancy Mace (Cunningham) UT-04: Burgess Owens (McAdams) DEMOCRATIC HOUSE LEADERSHIP TOP POSITIONS (UNCONTESTED) ASSISTANT SPEAKER RACE Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA-12) Katherine Clark (MA-05) Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (MD-05) David Cicilline (RI-01) Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (SC-06) Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08) DCCC CHAIR RACE Tony Cardenas (CA-29) CAUCUS VICE-CHAIR RACE Sean Patrick Maloney (NY-18) Pete Aguilar (CA-31) Marc Veasey (TX-33) Robin Kelly (IL-02) Deb Haaland (NM-01) REPUBLICAN HOUSE LEADERSHIP Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (CA-23) Whip Steve Scalise (LA-01) Conference Chair Liz Cheney (WY-AL) RPC Chair Gary Palmer (AL-06) NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (MN-06) COMPETITIVE DEM COMMITTEE RACES COMPETITIVE GOP COMMITTEE RACES NEW HOUSE CHAIRS/RANKING MEMBERS 117th CONGRESS HOUSE AGENDA Administration Elections, voting rights, whistleblower protection Agriculture COVID relief, CFTC/ child nutrition reauthorization Appropriations Earmarks, abortion funding, government funding Armed Services Innovation, competition, “reasonable” budget Budget Budget resolution with reconciliation instructions Ed & Labor College affordability, wage increases, COVID relief Energy & Commerce Clean energy, strengthening the ACA, data privacy Financial Services Rental and mortgage assistance, COVID relief Foreign Affairs US diplomacy, presidential war authority, China, Israel Homeland Security Oversight of DHS agencies, immigration Judiciary Big tech antitrust, immigration, police conduct Natural Resources Climate change, environmental justice, oversight Oversight & Reform COVID oversight, USPS, ensuring an accurate census Rules Reclaiming constitutional authority, COVID rules Science, Space, Tech Extreme weather conditions R&D Small Business COVID relief and response T&I Surface transportation reauthorization, infrastructure Ways & Means COVID relief, trade, pensions, SALT, EITC SENATE LEADERSHIP NEW SENATE CHAIRS/RANKING MEMBERS 117th CONGRESS SENATE AGENDA Agriculture COVID relief, child nutrition programs reauthorization Executive Branch Oversight- Judiciary, HSGAC, HELP, Finance Appropriations FY 21 spending bills, COVID relief Armed Services Navy shipbuilding, advanced tech, China, 5G Banking Nominations Budget The nation’s fiscal future Commerce Privacy, social media liability, aircraft safety ENR “All-of-the-above” energy approach, COVID relief EPW Highway bill, water infrastructure Finance Healthcare, tax provisions, COVID relief Foreign Relations International institutions, authoritarianism, China, health HELP COVID response, higher education, healthcare, pensions HSGAC Cybersecurity, counterterrorism, opioids, extremism Indian Affairs Health, economic development, Hawaiian/Alaskan issues Judiciary Big tech scrutiny, nominations Rules and Admin Federal elections law, campaign finance Small Business COVID relief, additional assistance programs Veterans’ Affairs Non-VA healthcare options, electoring health records THE DEMOCRATIC BIG TENT THE BIDEN AGENDA: BUILD BACK BETTER KEY BIDEN STAFF ALREADY APPOINTED Ron Klain Dana Remus Chief of Staff Counsel to the President
Steve Ricchetti Mike Donilon Counselor to the President Senior Advisor
Jen O’Malley Dillon Julia Rodriguez Deputy Chief of Staff Director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA 02) Senior Adviser and Head of the Annie Tomasini White House Office of Public Engagement Director of Oval Office Operations REPLACING KAMALA HARRIS 2021 REDISTRICTING: A DEMOCRATIC DISASTER 2022: SENATE REPUBLICANS PLAYING DEFENSE AGAIN? 2022: THE BATTLE MOVES TO GOVERNOR’S MANSIONS KEY UPCOMING DATES KEY UPCOMING DATES