CLF Donors FROM: Dan Conston, President, Congressional Leadership Fund DATE: November 7, 2020 RE: 2020 House Update: a Resounding Success
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TO: CLF Donors FROM: Dan Conston, President, Congressional Leadership Fund DATE: November 7, 2020 RE: 2020 House Update: A Resounding Success OVERVIEW AND WHERE WE STAND CLF and House Republicans accomplished a historic victory on Election Night. Despite most prognosticators projecting Republican losses of as many as 15-20 seats, we brought home astounding wins. Because CLF was by far the dominant spender on the House side, we had to cover huge parts of the map, ultimately spending $140 million on IE’s in 54 races. ● So far, our record is 36-11, with 7 races outstanding. We have not lost a single defensive incumbent seat yet. ● Of the 22 races CLF spent $3 million or more in, we are 17-2, with 3 yet to be called. ● Of races that have been called, our spending ROI is 86%. ● Of the 10 offense pickups for Republicans so far, CLF spent in 9 and spent $4 million or more in 8 of them. ○ To that point, where CLF went in big, our spending was difference-making – we are on track to win our 10 biggest spending offense districts. (See pages 2 & 3) There are incredible members-elect to show for it. Of our 10 offense pick-ups, all are women, minorities or veterans. This freshman class will fundamentally change the makeup of the House Republican Conference. All told, this puts Republicans on path for a net pick up of 7 to 12 seats. CLF and House Republicans, behind the leadership of Leader Kevin McCarthy, outperformed all expectations, and our success is the direct result of three factors: 1. CLF in 2020 was the largest House super PAC in U.S. history. We were well-financed enough to take an outsized role in helping propel top and underfunded campaigns to victory. 2. CLF and NRCC IE spending protected key incumbents in what appeared to be a challenging environment in the suburbs, while doubling and tripling down on our key offense districts. 3. The work put into recruiting diverse, compelling candidates that were able to overperform. Leader McCarthy’s vision as a candidate recruiter cannot be overstated. RAISED MORE THAN EVER BEFORE & EXPANDED OUR ROLE TO MAKE UP THE CANDIDATE FUNDRAISING GAP CLF raised over $160 million, eclipsing our 2018 record for its best fundraising cycle ever. CLF’s spending in the 2020 campaign makes us the largest House super PAC IE in US history. This allowed us to close one of Republicans’ biggest disadvantages this cycle: severe candidate-side fundraising differentials. To put this in stark terms: In the top 50 offense races, Republican candidates were outraised in all but 3 districts. In the top 20 incumbent Republican defense races, half (10 of 20) were outraised by their Democrat challengers. And for the open seats, all but 2 were outraised by the Democrat. The Green Wave from 2018 never crested. From August through Election Day, House Democrat candidates had an astounding $88 million more booked on television than GOP candidates did – a disadvantage compounded by the preferential rates candidates pay for advertising. rd As you’ll see below, Democratic candidates collectively were only the 3 largest advertiser in House races, but the single largest advertiser by total GRPs. Candidate-side fundraising remains one of the biggest structural problems for House Republicans. CASE STUDY: HELPING ELECT STAR GOP RECRUIT STEPHANIE BICE After star GOP recruit Stephanie Bice won a highly competitive primary in late August, it was publicly clear that her campaign had little money left on hand. The day after Bice won her primary, CLF granted money to a CLF-allied women’s group so they could run positive advertising in support of Bice. CLF also began spending online advertising dollars to independently drive small-dollar GOP donors to a WinRed fundraising page that enabled donors to easily make contributions to both CLF and Bice’s campaign. Those small-dollar donors ultimately contributed six-figures to Bice’s campaign via the CLF-established WinRed page. CLF carried the entire negative message against Horn in August and September, focusing on oil and gas. It was consistent and powerful. We opened field offices for individual voter contact and ran a ballot chase operation to turn out low-propensity Republicans. The race stayed close in September. By October, Bice, a strong fundraiser and candidate, had replenished significant resources. She was then able to defend herself on TV, while both CLF and other groups, including the NRCC’s independent-expenditure unit, carried the negative oil-and-gas message late. While prognosticators predicted a Horn victory, Bice won by 5 points on Election Day. OTHER INITIAL EXAMPLES OF CLF’S OUTSIZED ROLE TO HELP CANDIDATES CLF expanded its role significantly beyond the typical outside spender playbook of negative tv ads, mail and digital. In a number of races, CLF carried all advertising, ran field programs, ballot chase and GOTV programs, mail, phone and text voter contact, and more. For example: NY-11 - CLF invested $5.6 million to help Nicole Malliotakis ● CLF carried nearly all GOP advertising. Our message was powerful featuring a series of former Staten Island police dismayed by Max Rose. We bought :15 broadcast TV ads, giving us the same power as House Majority PAC’s :30 ads for half the price. Democrats spent $13 million on TV alone and lost. SC-01 - CLF spent $4.3 million to propel Nancy Mace ● While prognosticators counted us out in SC-01, in mid-October CLF saw a clear path to victory and moved quickly to capitalize. CLF added in an additional $1 million, doubling down. We carried the full GOP IE message in Charleston in October, as well as running a comprehensive individual voter contact program. UT-04 - CLF supported Burgess Owens with $4.5 million ● Similar to OK-05, CLF ran early positive ads, ran negative ads defining Ben McAdams, opened field offices and ran a ballot chase program, ran a similar WinRed program as in OK-05 which resulted in $350,000 in donations to Owens’ campaign, and more. TX-22 - CLF boosted Troy Nehls with $6.4 million ● CLF carried the entire GOP TV advertising presence in the race. We also opened field offices to assist with in-person voter contact outside of Nehls’ base in Fort Bend County. DOUBLED DOWN IN OFFENSE SEATS LATE, WHILE PROTECTING GOP INCUMBENTS As Election Day neared, the national political environment appeared to present significant challenges for Republican incumbents in suburbia. CLF reacted, moving quickly to build a firewall and ensure Democrats could not get a foothold. At the time of writing, not a single House incumbent lost their race. While we moved to protect incumbents, CLF never once took the gas off our key offense seats. In the final weeks, in addition to bolstering the 10 most “competitive” offense districts, CLF saw promise in two races that prognosticators considered Dem-leaning: SC-01 and IA-01. We doubled down our investment in both, adding additional millions in the final 3 weeks in both races and carrying the GOP message late. This critical late spending in top offense and key defense seats made the difference in helping candidates like Nancy Mace, Ashley Hinson, Beth Van Duyne, Burgess Owens, Yvette Herrell, Carlos Gimenez, Michelle Fischbach, Andrew Garbarino, Claudia Tenney and more, as well as helping re-elect Members like Ann Wagner, French Hill, Richard Hudson, Steve Chabot, Lee Zeldin, Brian Fitzpatrick and many more. GOING BIG ON FIELD, WHILE DEMOCRATS STAYED HOME House Democrats actively discouraged their campaigns from knocking doors, telling Members it wasn’t “safe or smart to do so.” But with countless voters stuck at home, CLF took a different approach, investing in ways to continue knocking doors while staying safe in the pandemic. CLF went big on field, investing $10 million to put boots on the ground in a number of our top races and for our national ballot chase programs to get out the vote. These efforts clearly paid off, giving CLF a critical leg up to deliver victory in a number of key races. CLF’s field programs made a major difference in the districts where CLF defeated incumbent Democrats like Joe Cunningham (SC-01) and Kendra Horn (OK-05) and other districts where Democrats came up short including those of Don Bacon (NE-02) and Congressman-elect Troy Nehls (TX-22). CLF’s ballot chase programs also helped propel our candidates to victory against Collin Peterson (MN-07), Abby Finkenauer (IA-01), Xochitl Torres-Small (NM-02) and Max Rose (NY-11) while ensuring wins in a number of defense districts where we implemented them including Ann Wagner (MO-02), Rodney Davis (IL-13), John Katko (NY-24), and more. DIVERSE, IMPRESSIVE RECRUITS PROPEL GOP TO VICTORY The significant investments that Leader McCarthy and the NRCC put into recruiting stronger candidates helped lay the groundwork that led to our wins. They set out from Day 1 to put forward the strongest and most diverse recruiting class in a generation. Every single seat Republicans flipped was won by a woman, a minority or a veteran. In every top race, Republicans put forward a dynamic candidate, with an impressive story that resonated with the voters of their districts and it paid off. Recruitment was a marked improvement over cycles past and continuing the efforts put into it this cycle into 2022 and beyond will be crucial to our path to retaking the House next cycle. The GOP flips and key open seats defended include: Fischbach (MN-07) Mace (SC-01) Hinson (IA-01) Bice (OK-05) Herrell (NM-02) Gimenez (FL-26) Salazar (FL-27) Gonzales (TX-23) Spartz (IN-05) Malliotakis (NY-11) .