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China Consumer Staples Sector

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China Consumer Staples Sector China Consumer Staples 26 January 2016 China Consumer Staples Sector Switch focus to the small wonders With cost tailwinds likely to ease in 2016, we recommend focusing on fast-growing categories and premium products We prefer small companies with revenue upside (“Davids”) over giants that can’t respond quickly to changing market dynamics (“Goliaths”) Anson Chan, CFA Buy selectively: we like Vinda and upgrade UPCH to Buy (1); we (852) 2532 4350 downgrade Hengan, Tingyi and Fufeng to Hold (3) [email protected] What's new: We are cutting 2016-17E EPS for 9 of the 12 China Key stock calls Consumer Staples companies by 2-33%. On our new numbers, the stocks New Prev. under Daiwa coverage are trading at PER discounts to international peers Uni-President China (220 HK) Rating Buy Underperform (16x 2016E PER vs. 21x), despite the peers having slower EPS growth Target 6.20 7.00 (9% vs. 16% for packaged food companies, per Bloomberg). We believe Upside p 19.2% this disparity indicates the risk of an EPS growth slowdown for the China Vinda International (3331 HK) players is priced in. In 2016E, we expect: 1) the revenue of most staples Rating Outperform Outperform players to slow further YoY from a relatively high base, and 2) gross-margin Target 14.30 17.40 expansion to slow as cost tailwinds ease. We remain Neutral on the sector. Upside p 10% Want Want China (151 HK) Rating Buy Buy What's the impact: Shift from big to small, old to new. We cut 2015- Target 7.30 8.50 17E revenue for 11 of the 12 companies by 1-14%, due mainly to: 1) shifts Upside p 47.2% in market share and channels, which often favour small players with new hit Hengan International Group (1044 HK) products and foreign brands, and 2) a high consumption base for items like Rating Hold Outperform beer and noodles, which means that market-share leaders can no longer Target 66.00 87.00 rely on their strengths (traditional distribution networks, dominant shares in Downside q 2.6% key categories), whereas small players are well placed because of their Tingyi Cayman Islands (322 HK) Rating Hold Outperform flexibility in product launches. For example, we forecast Vinda to see a Target 9.60 12.90 revenue CAGR of 23% over 2015-17 due to its increasing exposure to Upside p 5.8% online channels, as well as acquisitions, vs. a flat (0%) CAGR for Hengan. Source: Daiwa forecasts Cost tailwinds to subside: We still expect slight gross-margin expansion Daiwa’s China Staples Sector coverage for most of the staples downstream companies in 2016E (up <1pp YoY), Recommendation driven mainly by product-mix changes. Our growth forecasts are much The Davids Vinda Outperform (2) weaker than the surge seen in 2015E (2-4pp), as we believe some Modern Dairy Buy (1) commodity costs will rebound from a low base. At the same time, the weak Huishan Sell (5) CNY:USD will likely weigh on companies with large proportions of USD Uni-President China Buy (1) The Goliaths debt and/or imported raw materials. Hengan and Vinda have the most USD Hengan Hold (3) exposure in terms of their COGS (30-60%). Mengniu Hold (3) Tingyi Hold (3) Tsingtao Underperform (4) What we recommend: We like relatively small companies with the potential China Resources Beer Hold (3) for revenue growth on market-share gains and/or product-mix Fufeng Hold (3) improvements. Hence, we upgrade Uni-President China (UPCH) (220 HK, The Somewhere in betweens Want Want Buy (1) HKD5.20) to Buy (1), from Underperform (4); we also like Vinda (3331 HK, WH Group Outperform (2) HKD13.0, Outperform [2]). Want Want (151 HK, HKD4.96, Buy [1]) is our Source: Daiwa sole Buy (1) among the large-cap staples companies (strong cash flow, share buyback support). Meanwhile, we downgrade Hengan (1044 HK, HKD67.75), Tingyi (322 HK, HKD9.07) and Fufeng (546 HK, HKD2.61) to Hold (3) on price competition and potentially slow volume growth. How we differ: Our 2016-17E revenue and EPS are 1-9% and 2-39%, respectively, lower than consensus, reflecting our concern about market- share losses among the big players, and our bearish CNY assumptions. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 81 China Consumer Staples Sector: 26 January 2016 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg China Huishan Dairy Holdings 6863 HK 2.95 Sell Sell 1.87 1.60 16.9% 0.055 0.056 (1.9%) 0.073 0.088 (17.9%) China Mengniu Dairy 2319 HK 11.08 Hold Hold 11.70 14.50 (19.3%) 0.663 0.695 (4.5%) 0.636 0.752 (15.4%) China Modern Dairy Holdings 1117 HK 1.45 Buy Buy 3.00 3.30 (9.1%) 0.126 0.156 (19.5%) 0.172 0.214 (19.6%) China Resources Beer 291 HK 12.30 Hold Hold 12.40 13.40 (7.5%) 0.361 0.399 (9.6%) 0.530 0.517 2.5% Fufeng Group 546 HK 2.61 Hold Buy 2.55 5.00 (49.0%) 0.241 0.254 (5.0%) 0.260 0.348 (25.1%) Hengan International Group 1044 HK 67.75 Hold Outperform 66.00 87.00 (24.1%) 3.487 3.742 (6.8%) 3.675 4.195 (12.4%) Tingyi Cayman Islands 322 HK 9.07 Hold Outperform 9.60 12.90 (25.6%) 0.067 0.069 (3.9%) 0.069 0.079 (12.4%) Tsingtao Brewery 168 HK 28.80 Underperform Underperform 26.80 32.00 (16.3%) 1.211 1.305 (7.2%) 1.191 1.330 (10.4%) Uni-President China 220 HK 5.20 Buy Underperform 6.20 7.00 (11.4%) 0.195 0.197 (0.9%) 0.232 0.219 6.2% Vinda International 3331 HK 13.00 Outperform Outperform 14.30 17.40 (17.8%) 0.479 0.641 (25.3%) 0.570 0.851 (33.1%) Want Want China 151 HK 4.96 Buy Buy 7.30 8.50 (14.1%) 0.042 0.046 (9.7%) 0.050 0.054 (7.8%) WH Group 288 HK 4.40 Outperform Outperform 4.80 5.50 (12.7%) 0.042 0.041 1.8% 0.056 0.054 2.6% Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Daiwa’s China Staples Sector coverage: the Davids, the Goliaths, and the somewhere in-betweens Recommendation Product Revenue YoY% Gross profit margin % 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E The Davids Vinda Outperform (2) Tissue paper and personal hygiene products 18.0% 31.0% 16.2% 31.5% 32.1% 32.1% Modern Dairy Buy (1) Raw milk and dairy products -0.9% 8.5% 7.8% 34.4% 35.5% 40.6% Huishan # Sell (5) Raw milk and dairy products 13.9% 24.3% 13.8% 57.5% 55.9% 56.5% Uni-President China Buy (1) Instant noodles and bottled drinks 5.1% 8.0% 4.9% 35.4% 36.2% 36.1% The Goliaths Hengan Hold (3) Tissue paper and personal hygiene products 2.0% -0.8% 1.1% 48.8% 49.5% 49.3% Mengniu Hold (3) Dairy products -1.9% 3.7% 2.5% 32.2% 31.2% 31.5% Tingyi Hold (3) Instant noodles and bottled drinks -9.4% 0.6% 2.5% 32.5% 32.3% 32.8% Tsingtao Underperform (4) Beer -3.3% -4.2% 1.4% 31.4% 32.0% 32.7% China Resources Beer Hold (3) Beer n.a. 3.8% 4.5% 34.6% 35.8% 36.4% Fufeng Hold (3) MSG 4.1% 9.4% 1.0% 16.2% 14.7% 15.5% The Somewhere in betweens Want Want Buy (1) Snacks, dairy products -6.5% 6.1% 6.9% 43.6% 43.9% 43.8% WH Group Outperform (2) Fresh and processed pork -1.0% 6.1% 5.4% 15.9% 15.6% 15.6% Source: Daiwa forecasts Note: #FY16-18E numbers for Huishan as the company’s year-end is on 31 March China Consumer Staples Sector: contribution of commodities to 2016E COGS (downstream) and revenue (upstream) (%) Snacks/ Industry dairy beverage Soft drinks and noodles Dairy products Brewery Personal-care products Packaged meat Company Want Want Tingyi UPC Mengniu Huishan Modern Dairy Tsingtao/CRB Hengan Vinda WH Group Locally sourced /sourced in non-USD currencies Palm oil <2 7 7 Flour <3 8 8 Sugar 5 5 5 3-5% PET chips <5 30 30 <10 <5% China: 7 0-80% Pork of COGS ~30% of Raw Milk <3 30-40 ~80% of revenue revenue Corn Feed: 70% of upstream operation Sourced overseas Milk powder 15% 10% Wood pulp – short fibre ~10-15% 50-60% Wood pulp – long fibre Source: Daiwa estimates 2 China Consumer Staples Sector: 26 January 2016 Table of contents 2016: the year when strengths become weaknesses ............................................ 4 Big players are likely to underperform this year..................................................................4 Prefer the Davids to the Goliaths ..................................................................................... 10 Cost tailwinds to subside .......................................................................................13 Cost trends turned neutral on gross margins ................................................................... 13 Impact of CNY depreciation – mainly on the debt side ..................................................... 18 Valuations and recommendations .........................................................................20 Rerating opportunity for selected stocks .......................................................................... 20 The Davids ...................................................................................................................... 22 The Goliaths .................................................................................................................... 24 The somewhere in-betweens ........................................................................................... 27 Risk ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Commodity prices – main risks, upside or downside ........................................................ 28 Downside ........................................................................................................................ 28 Company Section Uni-President China ......................................................................................................... 29 Vinda International ........................................................................................................... 33 Want Want China ............................................................................................................. 37 China Modern Dairy Holdings .........................................................................................
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