State Responses to Energy Transitions: Great Power Navies and their Transition from Coal to Oil A dissertation submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Cincinnati In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In the Department of Political Science of the College of Arts and Sciences by Robert B. Nestheide, B.A., July 2016 Committee Chair: Thomas G. Moore, PhD 1 Abstract This dissertation examines state and military responses to energy transitions. The research uses a methodological approach of within-case comparison to examine state and naval policy responses over time during the transition from coal to oil-fueled naval fleets. This framework for categorizing and understanding state reactions to new energy technologies explores the concurrent impact of both systemic and domestic level variables and contributes to the field of political science by exploring the process of technological diffusion. This approach can be replicated and applied to both other states and other energy transitions, providing a platform for future investigations into the impact of energy transitions and the role of state organizations in shaping the outcomes of such transitions. The dissertation contributes to the various literatures by filling a gap in the qualitative assessment of state and military experiences during energy transitions and also by tracing the process by which new energy technology diffused among different states and militaries. 2 3 Acknowledgments I would like to thank Dr. Thomas G. Moore for his support, advice, and thoughtful feedback, provided over the course of my time as a graduate student at the University of Cincinnati. I am also very thankful for the feedback and advice of Dr. Richard Harknett, whose suggestions were integral to the completion of this project. I am particularly thankful for the support and feedback from Dr. Joel Wolfe, who was always willing to discuss the project and regularly reminded me to see the bigger picture. I would also like to thank the Political Science Department, for the years of support and encouragement they have given. I am thankful for the financial support from The Charles Phelps Taft Research Center, the Graduate School and also the Department of Political Science. Lastly, I would like to thank my wife, Shawna Nestheide, and my parents, Dr. Robert Nestheide and Kathy Nestheide, for continual support and encouragement. 4 Table of Contents Chapter 1 – Introduction……………………………………………… 7 Chapter 2 – Energy, Energy Transitions, and Modern Military Organizations: A Review of the Literature…….. 20 Chapter 3 – Military Organizations, Innovation, and Technological Diffusion A Review of the Literature:…………………… 66 Chapter 4 – The American Navy’s Transition from Coal to Oil: 1904-1918………………………………….. 108 Chapter 5 – The British Navy’s Transition from Coal to Oil: 1904-1918…………………………………... 177 Chapter 6 – Comparative Analysis of the U.S. and British Transition from Coal to Oil………………………………. 228 Bibliography……………………………………………………………. 270 Appendix …………………………………………………………… 282 5 List of Figures and Tables 1.1 – American Energy Consumption by source 1850-2000………………………… 22 1.2 – American Energy Consumption by source 1949-2011………………………… 23 1.3 – World Energy Consumption by source 1986-2012…………………………...... 24 5.1 – British Naval expenditure on battleships and cruisers 1889-1904……………… 181 5.2 – United Kingdom Oil Imports by source 1914-1929……………………………. 191 5.3 – Great Power Navy Battleships built and building 1896-1906………………….. 197 5.4 – Fuel Oil purchased by the Admiralty 1902-1912………………………………. 200 5.5 – British, French, and German expenditure on aeronautics 1911-1913………….. 208 5.6 – British Coal production 1820-present………………………………………….. 211 5.7 – British Colliers sunk 1914-1918……………………………………………….. 217 5.8 – British Oilers sunk 1914-1918…………………………………………………. 217 6.1 – General Typology of Energy Transition policies………………………………. 261 Maps 5.1 – German U-Boat attacks around the British Isles 1914-15…………………………. 219 5.2 – German U-Boat attacks around the British Isles 1916…………………………. 219 5.3 – German U-Boat attacks around the British Isles 1917…………………………. 220 5.4 – German U-Boat attacks around the British Isles 1918…………………………. 220 6 1 Introduction The significant role of energy security in state grand strategy is widely acknowledged. However transitions by state militaries from one energy source to another are understudied. Many scholars and scientists have noted the likely future transition from fossil fuels to other, more sustainable, resources. In order to prepare for and manage future likely transitions, it is important that we examine past transitions as a contribution to security studies. This dissertation focuses on great power navies and their transition from using coal to using oil to fuel their fleets. This research will examine state responses to this energy transition and will seek to provide a generalizable framework for understanding state responses to such transitions. Overview Of the Research Problem and Existing Literature Issues of Energy and Energy transitions The subject of natural resources has received considerable attention within the discipline of Political Science, especially within the subfield of International Political Economy1 (IPE) but also in broader security-oriented debates among scholars of international relations involving 1 Simon Bromley, American Hegemony and World Oil (University Park: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1991); C.J. Campbell, Oil Crisis (Brentwood: Multi-Science Publishing Company Ltd., 2005); Frieden and Rogowski in Robert O Keohane, and Helen V. Milner. eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Richard Heinberg, The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, 2003); Mary Kaldor, Terry Karl, and Yahia Said. eds., Oil Wars (London: Pluto Press, 2007); Robert O Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984); Michael T Klare, Blood and Oil (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2004); Georg Koopmann, Laus Matthies, and Beate Reszat, Oil and the International Economy: Lessons From Two Price Shocks (New Brunswick: Translation Publishers, 1989); Morse in Stiles, Kendall W. Stiles and Tsuneo Akaha eds. International Political Economy: A Reader (New York: Harper Collins Publishers, 1991) 7 balance of power theory.2 Fossil fuels, namely coal and oil, with their peculiar importance to both economic and military affairs, serve as an interesting point of intersection between the two fields. Indeed, there is a well-established literature that deals with fossils fuels and the role of oil in particular. At the same time, there also appears to be a lacuna within these literatures relating to transitions from one major energy source to another. Given the non-renewable nature of fossil fuel resources,3 as well as the extensive and increasing consumption of these resources on a global scale, there are occasionally periods of transition 2 On the importance of deciding where to allocate scarce resources see Bull, Hedley. The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics, 3rd ed. London: Palgrave, 2002. pp. 107; On the matter of differentiating between power as resources and power as capability to realize ends see Brooks, Stephen G. and William C. Wohlforth. World out of Balance: International Relations and the challenge of American Primacy. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008. pp. 11 and also on resources and latent power pp. 211; On the preponderance of both power and resources present within status-quo states see Carr, Edward Hallett. The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919-1939: An introduction to the Study of International Relations. New York: Harper Collins, 1946. pp. 119-120; On resource scarcity and its role in his description of a Rawlsian balance of power system see Midlarsky, Manus I. “The Balance of Power as a “Just” Historical System.” Polity Vol. 16, (Winter, 1983): pp. 193 & 200; On a shortage of resources hindering internal balancing in Britain prior to WWII see Papayoanou, Paul A. Power Ties: Economic Interdependence, Balancing and War. Ann Arbor:The Univeristy of Michigan Press, 1999. pp. 107-108, also on the connection between economic resources and military capabilities see pp. 131, most importantly on US policymakers during WWII as defining power as control over and access to resources see also pp. 131. 3 Banks, Ferdinand B. The Political Economy of Oil. Lexington: Lexington Books, 1980; Bromley, Simon. American Hegemony and World Oil. University Park: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1991; Campbell, C.J. Oil Crisis. Brentwood: Multi-Science Publishing Company Ltd., 2005; Hicks, Brian, and Chris Nelder. Profit From the Peak: The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century. Hoboken: Angel Publishing, 2008; Klare, Michael T. Blood and Oil. New York: Metropolitan Books, 2004; Koopmann, Georg, Laus Matthies, and Beate Reszat. Oil and the International Economy: Lessons From Two Price Shocks. New Brunswick: Translation Publishers, 1989; Mabro, Robert. ed. Oil in the 21st Century: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities; Mills, Robin M. The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming. Westport: Prager Publishers, 2008; Mommer, Bernard. Global Oil and the Nation State. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002; Nore, Peter, and Terisa Turner. Oil and Class Struggle.