12 Established 1961

Analysis Monday, November 27, 2017

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Egypt’s options dwindling in fight against militants

The scale of the bloodshed was vastly higher than past militant attacks but the Egyptian government response the same: Three days of mourning, reassuring messages in the media that things are under control, and the president promising vengeance. The identical pattern in the aftermath of Friday’s attack on a mosque in Sinai, which killed 305 people, raises the question whether Egypt has any options left in the fight against Islamic militants. The military has thrown tanks, fighting vehicles, fighter-jets, warships and helicopter gunships along The inside story of Mugabe’s downfall with tens of thousands of security forces in three years of conflict with extremists, including an affiliate of the Islamic State group in the northern part of the Sinai Inside State House in Harare, was in the over his loyalty to Mnangagwa,” the report said. Reuters put Some were disguised as baggage handlers, their military Peninsula. tightest spot of his 37-year rule. Tanks were on the streets questions about this exchange and other aspectsof this arti- fatigues and weapons hidden beneath high-visibility jackets The area has been under emergency law for several and troops had occupied the state broadcaster, from where cle to Mugabe’s spokesman, George Charamba. In an enig- and overalls, one security source said. Realizing they were years and the entire country since April. Security the army had announced it had taken control of . matic text message dated Nov 23, he replied: “Enjoy Reuters outnumbered and outgunned, Chihuri’s police team backed forces have forcibly evacuated areas adjacent to the Mugabe, 93 years old but still alert, remained defiant. The copy. Goodnight.” Two spokesmen for Chiwenga declined to down, allowing Chiwenga to touch down without incident, border with Gaza, razing residents’ houses and farm- only leader the country had known since independence was comment. After another tense meeting with Mugabe on Nov the security source said. Mugabe’s spokesman did not com- lands. They have blown up underground tunnels that refusing to quit. At a tense meeting with his military top 5, Chiwenga left Harare on a pre-arranged official trip and ment on the incident. authorities believe militants used to smuggle weapons brass on Nov 16, the world’s oldest head of state put his foot travelled to China, which wields significant influence as a and fighters in from neighboring Gaza, ruled by the down: “Bring me the constitution and tell me what it says,” he major investor in Zimbabwe. A day later, Mugabe sacked ‘Very alarmed’ Palestinian militant group Hamas. ordered military chief Constantino Chiwenga, according to Mnangagwa as vice president and purged him from ZANU- Two days later, Chiwenga and a group of military com- These measures have shown few tangible results. two sources present. PF, the liberation movement that Mnangagwa had served manders demanded a meeting with Mugabe at his official The firepower and troop deployments in Sinai have An aide brought a copy of the constitution, which lays out since his youth and for which, as a young militant caught State House residence in Harare, an ornate colonial villa com- kept militants from holding territory but have not pre- that the president is commander-in-chief of the armed bombing a train, he had nearly been executed. For the gener- plete with stuffed leopards and thick red carpets, according vented them from carrying out assassinations that ter- forces. Chiwenga, dressed in camouflage fatigues, hesitated als, Mugabe had gone too far. The military immediately acti- to a government source. They said they were “very alarmed” rorize the population and launching deadly attacks on before replying that Zimbabwe was facing a national crisis vated a “Code Red” alert, its highest level of preparedness, a at the firing of Mnangagwa and told Mugabe to rein in his military and police posts and convoys and recently a that demanded military intervention. Mugabe retorted that military source said. wife and her G40 faction, whom they accused of trying to daylight robbery in Sinai’s largest town. the army was the problem, according to the sources present. divide the military, according to the government official, who Then the beleaguered president indicated that perhaps they Assassination plot was present at the discussions. “What do you think should be ‘Brute Force’ could find a solution together. Moments after Mnangagwa was ousted on Nov 6, the done?” Mugabe demanded of the soldiers as he sat slumped In a televised address, a livid Abdel-Fattah Al-Sssi, The meeting marked the start of an extraordinary five- security details assigned to him and his house were with- in an armchair. The generals asked him to give assurances that Egypt’s general-turned-president, pledged the use of day standoff between Mugabe and Zimbabwe’s supreme law drawn, according to a statement he issued later. He was told they too would not be purged. Mugabe’s response was luke- “brute force” in response to Friday’s attack. “The on one side, and the military, his party and Zimbabwe’s peo- his life was in danger. “Security personnel, who are friendly warm, the government source said. Chiwenga told Mugabe armed forces and police will forcefully take revenge for ple on the other. The generals wanted Mugabe to go, but to me, warned me that plans were underfoot to eliminate me he would be making his concerns about the G40 faction pub- our martyred sons and restore security and stability in they also wanted a peaceful “coup”, one that would not once arrested and taken to a police station,” Mnangagwa lic. Hours later, Chiwenga summoned reporters to the mili- the short period ahead,” he vowed. There is little public irreparably tarnish the administration aiming to take over, said in a Nov 21 statement. “It was in my security interest to tary’s main barracks near Harare to issue a statement. “We discussion of how to conduct the war and northern according to multiple military and political sources. leave the country immediately.” must remind those behind the current treacherous shenani- Sinai area is closed off to journalists, making it difficult The president finally accepted defeat only after he was From Harare, he managed to escape over the border into gans that, when it comes to matters of protecting our revolu- to assess what’s going on. In the overwhelmingly pro- sacked by his own ZANU-PF party and faced the ignominy neighboring Mozambique, where he caught a plane to China, tion, the military will not hesitate to step in,” he said, reading government media, talk about the conflict is largely of impeachment. He signed a short letter of resignation to according to one source familiar with his movements. There from a prepared text. The following afternoon, Reuters focused on cheering the military and police, commem- parliament speaker Jacob Mudenda that was read out to he met up with Chiwenga, the source said. Reuters could not reported six armored personnel carriers heading towards the orating their “martyrs” and urging the public to rally lawmakers on Nov 21. Mugabe, who had run Zimbabwe confirm the account; but an intelligence report from Nov 13 headquarters of Mugabe’s Presidential Guard on the outskirts around Sisi. since 1980 and overseen its descent into economic ruin while indicates that Mugabe suspected some of his generals of of Harare. It was unclear whose command they were under. The closest authorities came to admitting shortcom- his wife shopped for luxury goods, was gone. The country preparing to overthrow him from China. “A number of gener- At the time, the city’s residents were on edge but still unsure ings was last month when Sisi removed the armed erupted into ecstasy. Parliamentarians danced and people als are now in China ready to plot Mugabe’s ouster with what it all meant. forces’ chief of staff and top police generals after a poured onto the streets in their tens of thousands to cele- Mnangagwa,” the report said. It was not clear which gener- planned attack on militants in the Western Desert went brate a political downfall that sent shockwaves across Africa als, and whether their travel to China was authorized. The line went dead disastrously wrong. The operation left over a dozen and the world. Mugabe’s spies suspected old allies had turned against At around 6 pm on Nov 14, Mugabe’s motorcade headed counterterrorism police officers dead and exposed To many, the end of Mugabe had been unthinkable only to his private “Blue Roof” residence, a heavily fortified com- poor coordination among security and intelligence one week before. Reuters has pieced together the events pound in the capital’s leafy northern suburb of Borrowdale. agencies. leading up to Mugabe’s removal, showing that the army’s Army had backed Meanwhile, social media buzzed with pictures of armored It also illustrated the problem posed by Egypt’s long action was the culmination of months of planning that vehicles driving along roads to Harare, sparking frenzied desert border with Libya - a country mired in chaos stretched from Harare to Johannesburg to Beijing. Mnangagwa for speculation about a coup. and rife with armed Islamic militant groups - through Increasingly concerned, Grace put in a call shortly after 7 which weapons and fighters can be smuggled. That has Bitter rivalry months, finally pm to a cabinet minister asking to get WhatsApp and fueled a second front of militant violence in the west, Drawing on a trove of intelligence documents from within Twitter shut down, according to one source familiar with a with signs of arms movements to the Sinai extremists. Mugabe’s feared Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO), got its way recording of the conversation. The minister, whose identity Egypt’s response has been in line with a longstanding Reuters reported in September that the army was backing Reuters is withholding for safety reasons, replied that such a model of fighting a conventional war against an oppos- , then vice president, to succeed move was the responsibility of state security minister Kembo ing army. Indeed, recent years have seen up to $15 bil- Mugabe when the time came. The report detailed how Mohadi. “No-one will stand for a coup. It cannot happen,” lion in arms deals, largely for big-ticket items such as Mnangagwa, a lifelong friend and former security chief of said Grace, commonly referred to as Amai, which means two helicopter carriers, submarines, assault helicopters Mugabe, might cooperate with Mugabe’s political foes in the ageing president. An intelligence report, dated Oct 30, Mother, according to a source who heard the recording. and fighter jets. order to revive the economy. It caused furore in Zimbabwe’s said Beijing and Moscow both supported regime change out Mugabe’s voice is then heard on the line: “As you have heard But critics have called for a counterterrorism strate- media and political circles. of frustration at Zimbabwe’s economic implosion under from Amai, is there anything that can be done?” The minister gy in Sinai rather than the reliance on a conventional Bitter rivalry intensified between Mnangagwa and Grace, Mugabe. “China and Russia are after change,” the report gave the same response, about the responsibilities of state deployment of overwhelming force. There are some Mugabe’s 52-year-old wife, who also hoped to take over as said. “They are after change within ZANU-PF as they are security, and the line went dead, the source said. Mohadi trained counterterrorism soldiers and police deployed, president and had the backing of a ZANU-PF faction known sick and tired of Mugabe’s leadership. The two countries are declined to comment. but most are poorly trained regular troops and police as G40. In early October, Mnangagwa said he had been air- even ready to clandestinely supply arms of war to Two hours later, two armored vehicles rolled into the lifted to hospital in South Africa after a poisoning attempt in Mnangagwa to fight Mugabe.” conscripts whose main skill is manning a checkpoint. Pockets Hill headquarters of the Zimbabwe Broadcasting August. He pointed no fingers - but he didn’t need to. Grace’s Neither China’s Defense Ministry nor Foreign Ministry Warplanes and attack helicopters have limits in a Corporation (ZBC), according to ZBC sources. Dozens of swift response was to deny it and accuse her rival of seeking responded to a request for comment. The Foreign Ministry rugged mountain terrain that the militants know far soldiers sealed off the site and stormed into the studios sympathy; she belittled him as nothing but an employee of had previously said Chiwenga’s visit was “a normal military better than the military does. And forces moving with where they accosted staff, snatching their phones and halting her husband, according to a report in the state-run Herald exchange mutually agreed upon by China and Zimbabwe”. tanks and heavy vehicles are often ambushed by the programs. State-owned ZBC, widely seen as a mouthpiece newspaper. As the pressure built, Mugabe became increas- Reuters sent written requests for comment to the Kremlin, more agile militants using light arms, machine guns, for Mugabe, switched to broadcasting pop music videos. roadside bombs and suicide bombers. ingly paranoid about the loyalty of army chief Chiwenga, a the Russian Defense Ministry and the Russian Foreign career soldier and decorated veteran of Zimbabwe’s 1970s Ministry. None of them responded. Mugabe’s inner circle, nearly all of them G40 loyalists, had no idea what was under way, according to four sources Heavy-handed bush-war against white-minority rule. Mugabe’s spies, who China has long taken an interest in Zimbabwe, having permeated every institution and section of society in supported Mugabe’s forces during the liberation struggle. familiar with their conversations. Information Minister Simon Sisi recently said security forces are hampered by Khaya Moyo called Defense Minister to the presence of civilians in Sinai, requiring extreme Zimbabwe, were warning him the military would not accept After independence it developed connections there in min- Grace as president. “Mugabe is very worried of a coup,” one ing, security and construction. Russia has also had ties to ask if he had any information about a possible coup. caution which benefits the insurgents. But critics say Sekeramayi said no, but tried to check with military chief the military has been heavy-handed as is, deepening intelligence report, dated Oct 23, said. “Mugabe was openly Zimbabwe since the early 1980s, and in 2014 a Russian con- told by senior CIOs that the military is not going to easily sortium entered into a partnership to develop a $3 billion Chiwenga. Chiwenga told Sekeramayi he would get back to the distrust of local tribes who have long claimed dis- him. According to the sources, Chiwenga never did. Moyo crimination. Male family members are sometimes accept the appointment of Grace. He was warned to be platinum mining project in the country. ready for civil war.” Chiwenga’s trip to China culminated in him meeting remains in hiding and was unavailable for comment. arrested if another member is suspected of militancy, Sekeramayi declined to comment. according to Sinai rights activists. Soldiers and police Reuters reviewed the document, and hundreds of other Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan in Beijing on Nov at checkpoints are notorious for mistreating people, intelligence reports dating back to 2009, before the coup 10. Two sources with knowledge of the talks told Reuters took place. The documents come from within the CIO, but that Chiwenga asked if China would agree not to interfere if Security detail they say. Roads are often blocked and mobile phone As ministers in the G40 faction tried frantically to work services disrupted. Houses have been razed to clear Reuters could not determine for whom they were written. he took temporary control in Zimbabwe to remove Mugabe The CIO is split into factions, some pro- and some anti- from power. Chang assured him Beijing would not get out what was going on, Chiwenga’s men closed in on zones for military control and people forcibly evacuat- Mugabe’s compound. According to a source briefed on the ed. Even those who oppose the militants become less Mugabe. In late October, Mugabe summoned Chiwenga to a involved and the two also discussed tactics that might be showdown, according to another of the documents, dated employed during the de facto coup, the sources said. situation, Albert Ngulube, a CIO director and head of likely to help security forces. Mugabe’s security detail, was driving home around 9.30 pm At the same time, the militants brutally intimidate Oct 30. It said Mugabe confronted the army chief about his Reuters could not establish whether Mnangagwa met Chang. ties to Mnangagwa and told him that going against Grace Having got wind of the talks in China, Mugabe summoned after visiting Mugabe. He met an armored car on Borrowdale residents from cooperating with security forces, kid- Brooke, a side road leading to Mugabe’s house. napping suspected collaborators and dumping their would cost him his life. his still-loyal police commissioner, Augustine Chihuri, and his “Chiwenga was warned by Mugabe that it is high time for deputy, Innocent Matibiri, to detain Chiwenga on his return When Ngulube confronted the soldiers and threatened to decapitated bodies on the streets of El-Arish, Rafah shoot them, they beat him up and detained him, the source and other north Sinai towns for all to see. So the locals him to start following. He mentioned to Chiwenga that those to Harare, government and security sources said. The pair fighting his wife are bound to die a painful death,” the intelli- assembled a squad of 100 police and intelligence agents. But said. Ngulube was later released, but had suffered head and provide the military with little actionable intelli- facial injuries, the source added. Spokesmen for Chiwenga gence.—AP gence report said. At the same meeting, Mugabe also the plot leaked and Chiwenga supporters managed to pull ordered Chiwenga to pledge allegiance to Grace. He refused. together a counter-team of several hundred special forces and Mnangagwa declined to comment. Reuters was unable “Chiwengwa refused to be intimidated. He stood his ground soldiers and agents as their commander’s plane approached. to contact Ngulube.— Reuters