April 2016 Amstat News 3 Statistics

April 2016 • Issue #466 AMSTATNEWS The Membership Magazine of A the American Statistical Association • http://magazine.amstat.orgM

T’S WHA 2016 MATHEMATICSThe AWARENESS Future MONTH NEXT? of Prediction2035 2020

2005

1990

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1960 ALSO: 1945 Learning on the Left Coast: CSP Has Another 1930 Successful Year

Recognizing the ASA’s Longtime Members

AMSTATNEWS APRIL 2016 • ISSUE #466

Executive Director Ron Wasserstein: [email protected] Associate Executive Director and Director of Operations features Stephen Porzio: [email protected] 3 President’s Corner Director of Science Policy Steve Pierson: [email protected] 5 Recognizing the ASA’s Longtime Members Director of Strategic Initiatives and Outreach 13 ASA Participates in Sixth Climate Science Day Donna Lalonde: [email protected] 14 ASA Leaders Reminisce: Nancy Geller Director of Education Rebecca Nichols: [email protected] 16 Statisticians as Leaders Managing Editor 18 Significance Gets New Look Megan Murphy: [email protected] 19 Learn Survey Research Techniques Production Coordinators/Graphic Designers in the 2016 Summer Institute Sara Davidson: [email protected] Megan Ruyle: [email protected] 20 ASA Receives Grant to Establish Series of REUs Publications Coordinator 22 2016 Mathematics Awareness Month: The Future of Prediction Val Nirala: [email protected] 24 FH17 Requests for NIH, NSF, Federal Statistical Agencies Advertising Manager Claudine Donovan: [email protected] Largely Positive

Contributing Staff Members 27 JQAS Highlights: Fantasy Football, Basketball, Tennis, Amy Farris • Amanda Conageski • Eric Sampson Designing Tournaments Featured in March Issue 28 Review and Edit, Writing Workshops Planned for JSM Amstat News welcomes news items and letters from readers on matters of interest to the association and the profession. Address correspondence to Managing Editor, Amstat News, American Statistical Association, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA, or email amstat@ amstat.org. Items must be received by the first day of the preceding month to ensure appearance in the next issue (for example, June 1 for the July issue). Material can be sent as a Microsoft Word document, PDF, or within an email. Articles will be edited for space. Accompanying artwork will be accepted in graphics file formats only (.jpg, etc.), minimum 300 dpi. No material in WordPerfect will be accepted. Amstat News (ISSN 0163-9617) is published monthly by the American columns Statistical Association, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314- 1943 USA. Periodicals postage paid at Alexandria, Virginia, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Amstat News, 732 30 STATtr@k North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943 USA. Send Canadian address changes to APC, PO Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Rich Hill, Internships Make Such a Difference: The Experiences ON L4B 4R6. Annual subscriptions are $50 per year for nonmembers. Amstat of Four Students News is the member publication of the ASA. For annual membership rates, see www.amstat.org/join or contact ASA Member Services at (888) 231-3473. STATtr@k is a column in Amstat News and a website geared toward people who American Statistical Association are in a statistics program, recently graduated from a statistics program, or 732 North Washington Street recently entered the job world. To read more articles like this one, visit the Alexandria, VA 22314–1943 USA website at http://stattrak.amstat.org. If you have suggestions for future articles, (703) 684–1221 or would like to submit an article, please email Megan Murphy, ASA GENERAL: [email protected] managing editor, at [email protected]. ADDRESS CHANGES: [email protected] AMSTAT EDITORIAL: [email protected] ADVERTISING: [email protected] 32 SCIENCE POLICY WEBSITE: http://magazine.amstat.org Leadership Is Listening: Data-Driven Printed in USA © 2016 American Statistical Association Decision-Making at NIGMS This column is written to inform ASA members about what the ASA is doing to promote the inclusion of statistics in policymaking and the funding of statistics research. To suggest science policy topics for the ASA to address, contact ASA Director of Science Policy Steve Pierson at [email protected].

The American Statistical Association is the world’s largest community of statisticians. The ASA supports excellence in the development, application, and dissemination of statistical science through meetings, publications, membership services, education, accreditation, and advocacy. Our members serve in industry, government, and academia in more than 90 countries, advancing research and promoting sound statistical practice to inform public policy and improve human welfare. departments SIDEBAR N-1 Epitaph for Statisticians Robert L. Hudson, Mississippi State University Written in 1976-1977 while teaching the graduate statistics courses in the psychology department at the Harvard of Mississippi. A mix of squares and roots 34 meetings And cowboy boots, Learning on the Left Coast: CSP Has Another Not entirely random Successful Year But variable Called cruncher and brother 38 education And frequently lover, Christine Franklin Named First ASA They relate to a range K–12 Statistical Ambassador Not entirely discretely But significantly With thoughts of samples and means And filled blue jeans, They live their days Not entirely average But normal But even when behavioral parameters member news are prudent Whether Fisher or Pearson, Gossett, 39 People News or Student 44 Section • Chapter • Committee News Sooner or later the last point must be plotted 45 Professional Opportunities And whether life was robust or should just be blotted When the final test is booted and run The terminal sum is N-1 Follow us on Twitter Corrections www.twitter.com/AmstatNews In the March issue, we wrote that abstract submission opens March 31 for the Spring Join the ASA Community Research Conference, but it closes March http://community.amstat.org/home 31. We apologize for the error. For the Like us on Facebook most up-to-date information about the www.facebook.com/AmstatNews conference, visit http://bit.ly/1S0bais. In the 2017 ASA Board of Directors Follow us on Instagram Candidates story, the workplace for Tony www.instagram.com/AmstatNews An should have been SAS Institute, Inc.

2 amstat news april 2016 president's corner

The Story Behind the ASA Statement on P-Values

lmost 30 years ago (1988), I published a Once the ASA decided to get involved, paper in the Journal of Parapsychology titled how did the process get started? “Successful Replication versus Statistical The board gave me the responsibility of assembling Significance”A in which I argued against the use of a panel of experts on the subject. It wasn’t hard the standard “p ≤ .05” as the criterion for judging to find a great group of statisticians for this task. the success of an experiment. I pointed out the We looked at the literature and identified people problems with p-values that statisticians were well who were actively writing about these matters. We aware of even then, but many scientists (and jour- asked those people who else we should be talking Jessica Utts nal editors) are only now beginning to understand, to and reached out from there. It was important such as the role of sample size in determining statis- to the board that a rich variety of perspectives be tical significance. The paper generated substantial included. In the end, we approached more than discussion, and at the Parapsychological Association two dozen people, almost all of them saying they annual conference that year, someone distributed would be willing to be involved. There was skepti- T-shirts to support my point of view. (See accom- cism on the part of many as to whether a statement panying photo on the next page.) could be agreed upon, but the skeptics wanted to For the past year, the ASA has had a commit- be involved nonetheless. tee working on elucidating principles that should accompany the use of p-values. I asked Ron What happened next? Wasserstein, ASA’s executive director, to answer We went to work. We decided on an outline for some questions about how this came about. the statement and broke the work of creating the MORE ON pieces of the statement into three parts. We formed P-VALUES The ASA recently released a statement subgroups to address each part. Each subgroup had Check out social on p-values, and you were involved a leader, and the leaders began email discussions media responses throughout the process. How did the about the relevant topics. Things moved along, but to the ASA’s ASA decide to get involved? after a while, we began to hit some snags. p-value statement on Page 48. Former ASA Vice President George Cobb suggested the ASA take some action. Many statisticians were Let’s talk about snags. It took a long already quite concerned about statistical issues in time from start to finish on this. the “reproducibility crisis” in science. At its spring Colleagues have expressed surprise 2014 meeting, the board discussed whether to take at that, saying “I could have written this on. Board members observed that this was new a statement on p-values in an ground for the ASA, but agreed it was important afternoon.” Why did it take so long? for us to do. An afternoon won’t get it done, but I admit I had no idea at the outset it would take as long as it did. In what way is this new ground? Like so many things, the issues here are much more Certainly in recent years, the ASA has addressed complicated than they first appear. They are both matters through policy statements—matters foundational and practical, theoretical and method- of importance such as the role of statistics in ological. Issues that have been debated at least since data science, value-added models in educational Fisher and Neyman and Pearson are still in play, and assessment, risk-limiting election audits, quali- Bayesian philosophies and methods add to the mix. fications for introductory statistics instructors, Then there is a whole other dimension. Statisticians and so on. None of these, however, speaks to are happy engaging in these debates, but our intended such a fundamental practice of statistics as does audiences need us to get real, to sort things out and this statement. explain what needs to change in the way they practice

april 2016 amstat news 3 statistics. There are lots of opinions about this. In the words of George Cobb parodying the birthday problem, “How many statisticians does it take to ensure at least a 50% chance of disagreement about p-values?” George says the answer is either 1 or 2! In the end, the statement was not much like the original outline. The long effort and thoughtful deliberation paid off, however, in a statement that should accomplish its purposes. What do you hope this statement will accomplish? We have big dreams for this statement. We’d love to see the practice of science with respect to its use of statistical inference undergo a cultural shift. We envi- sion a “post p < 0.05 era,” one in which scientific argu- mentation is not based on whether a p-value is small enough. In this era, attention would be paid to effect sizes and confidence intervals. P-values, when used, would be reported as values, rather than inequalities The Parapsychological Association gave ASA President (p = .0168, rather than p < 0.05). Indeed, we envi- Jessica Utts a T-shirt in 1988 to support her criticism of sion there being better recognition that measurement p-values. of the strength of evidence really is continuous, rather than discrete. In this era, all the assumptions made that enormously by sharing the statement through their contribute information to inference would be exam- networks, both social media networks and personal ined, including the choices made regarding which data networks. For the really ambitious, giving a seminar are analyzed and how. In the post p < 0.05 era, sound on p-values and statistical inference for nonstatisti- statistical analysis will still be important, but no single cal colleagues in the workplace would be a great way numerical value will substitute for thoughtful statisti- to engage. Many of our members are asked to refer- cal and scientific reasoning. ee papers for journals in other disciplines, and even The journals are the gatekeepers that can usher in may serve as associate editors. They could inform this era. If the statement succeeds in its purpose, jour- those journal editors of our statement and base their nals will stop using statistical significance to determine own reviews on its principles. whether to accept an article. Instead, journals will accept papers based on clear and detailed descrip- Will the ASA be following a similar tion of the study design, execution, and analysis. The process on other topics? If so, what papers will have conclusions based on valid statis- are some possibilities? tical interpretations and scientific arguments, and I think we should be, and I think the board agrees. they will be reported transparently and thoroughly We would love to get ideas from members about enough to be rigorously scrutinized by others. We appropriate topics. Perhaps we could drill further won’t be left scratching our heads trying to sort out down into aspects of the ASA’s recent statement on researcher degrees of freedom. The file-drawer effect the role of statistics in data science. Are there areas will be reduced. of research practice where there are Bayesian meth- We know there are areas of science and related jour- odologies that should be employed but aren’t? There nals following many of these practices already, but we is a lot of concern about multiple testing and con- hope the statement will drive others in that direction. firmatory vs. exploratory research. If there are areas We also know this isn’t change that happens overnight. in which we have things to say that could make a difference, let’s do it! How can ASA members help? The statement can’t achieve its purposes if only statisticians know about it. Members can help

4 amstat news april 2016 Recognizing the ASA’s Longtime Members he American Statistical Association would If you are a longtime member and will be like to thank its longtime members by attending JSM 2016 in Chicago, Illinois, please continuing its tradition of honoring those join us for a reception in your honor. If your Twho joined the association 35 or more years ago. name is not below and you believe it should be, This year, we recognize the following members for contact Amy Farris at [email protected] to correct their distinguished and faithful membership. your record.

50+ Years Khazan C. Agrawal Thomas J. Boardman Norman R. Draper Rudy A. Gideon Gudmund R. Iversen Dennis J. Aigner Donald J. Bogue Satya D. Dubey Dennis C. Gilliland Thomas B. Jabine Murray A. Aitkin Jack R. Borsting George T. Duncan Phil D. Gilliland Laurence F. Jackson Jack Alanen Alan Bostrom Douglas M. Dunn Leon J. Gleser Ronald L. Jacobson Philip J. Ambrosini Kimiko O. Bowman Arthur M. Dutton V. P. Godambe Aridaman K. Jain Carol H. Ammons David R. Brillinger Morris L. Eaton Charles H. Goldsmith Bruce Johnston Sigmund J. Amster Lyle D. Broemeling Bradley Efron Arnold F. Goodman Richard Hunn Jones Theodore W. Anderson Donna J. Brogan Jonas H. Ellenberg Leo A. Goodman Karl G. Joreskog Gary M. Andrew Maurice C. Bryson Robert C. Elston Donald Guthrie Joseph B. Kadane Charles E. Antle Charles R. Buncher William B. Fairley Irwin Guttman Graham Kalton Barry C. Arnold Norman Bush William R. Fairweather Gerald J. Hahn Marvin J. Karson Joseph R. Assenzo John M. Chambers Kenneth H. Falter Martin A. Hamilton Marvin A. Kastenbaum Barbara A. Bailar Herman Chernoff Paul I. Feder J. Wayne Hamman Shriniwas K. Katti John C. Bailar Janet E. Cherry Charles Federspiel Roy Dean Hardy Gordon M. Kaufman R. Clifton Bailey Robert P. Clickner Ivan P. Fellegi William L. Harkness Kathleen M. Keenan John J. Bartko Arthur Cohen Arlin M. Feyerherm David A. Harville William J. Kennedy Noel S. Bartlett Ayala Cohen Stephen E. Fienberg Kenneth Harwood Jon R. Kettenring Rex J. Bates Theodore Colton David John Finney Victor Hasselblad Benjamin F. King David L. Bayless William Jay Conover Richard L. Forstall Ronald W. Helms Elizabeth S. King-Sloan John J. Beauchamp Richard G. Cornell Alan B. Forsythe William G. Henderson John J. Kinney Gerald J. Beck John W. Cotton Martin R. Frankel Neil W. Henry Melville R. Klauber Donald F. Behan David R. Cox Ralph F. Frankowski Jay Herson Michael H. Klein Donald L. Bentley J. R. Crespo Donald A. S. Fraser Milton C. Heuston Gary G. Koch Rudolf J. Beran Ralph B. D’Agostino Edward L. Frome John E. Hewett Uwe Koehn Alan P. Berens Martin H. David Carol Holly E. Fuchs William J. Hill Mel Kollander Mark L. Berenson Herbert T. Davis Wayne A. Fuller Bruce Hoadley Stephen L. Kozarich Robert H. Berk Miles Davis A. Ronald Gallant Vincent Hodgson Lawrence L. Kupper Donald A. Berry John J. Deely Joseph L. Gastwirth Paul W. Holland Thomas E. Kurtz Elmer S. Biles Arthur P. Dempster Donald P. Gaver Myles Hollander Michael H. Kutner William C. Blackwelder Frank T. Denton David W. Gaylor J. Stuart Hunter Ronald E. Kutscher Saul Blumenthal Dennis O. Dixon Jane F. Gentleman Hiroshi Ikeda Peter A. (Tony) Lachenbruch Colin R. Blyth Thomas E. Doerfler Jean D. Gibbons Arthur G. Itkin John C. Lambert

april 2016 amstat news 5 Eugene M. Laska Jerry L. Moreno Walter Piesch J. Richard Schmid J. Richard Trout William J. Latzko Donald F. Morrison S. R. S. Rao Poduri Stanley Schor Bruce E. Trumbo Malcolm R. Leadbetter John W. Morse Ralph D. Pollard Stanley L. Sclove Chris P. Tsokos Eun S. Lee Mervin E. Muller Richard F. Potthoff Donald T. Searls N. Scott Urquhart Ferdinand Lemus Thomas D. Murphy John W. Pratt Daniel G. Seigel Constance van Eeden Fred C. Leone Janet M. Myhre S. James Press Robert J. Serfling Pearl A. Van Natta David Levine Patricia L. Nahas Charles H. Proctor Norman C. Severo Willem R. Van Zwet Eugene Levine Charles B. Nam Dana Quade Babubhai V. Shah James R. Veale Robert A. Lew Joseph I. Naus J. N. K. Rao William F. Shaw Harvey M. Wagner Thomas M. Lewinson Wayne B. Nelson Joan S. Reisch Monroe G. Sirken Ray A. Waller James M. Lucas Marc Nerlove Gladys H. Reynolds Betty J. Skipper Robert C. Walls Edward MacNeal John Neter Robert H. Riffenburgh Armand V. Smith James A. Walsh Brian D. Macpherson Mark J. Nicolich Larry J. Ringer William Boyce Smith William G. Warren Albert Madansky W. Michael O’Fallon Naomi B. Robbins Ronald D. Snee Steve Webb Richard Maisel Anthony R. Olsen Bruce E. Rodda Daniel L. Solomon Bruce S. Weir Colin L. Mallows Richard A. Olshen Charles A. Rohde Edward J. Spar Herbert I. Weisberg Charles R. Mann Anthony M. Orlando Joan R. Rosenblatt Douglas E. Splitstone Raymond L. Wilder Nancy R. Mann Bernard Ostle Paul F. Ross Stephen M. Stigler John Williams Jack A. Marshall Vernon E. Palmour Richard S. Ross George P. H. Styan William H. Williams Harry F. Martz Louis A. Panek Robert A. Rutledge D. Derk Swain Othmar W. Winkler John I. McCool Takis Papaioannou Harold B. Sackrowitz Paul Switzer Robert L. Winkler Robert L. McKnight Robert P. Parker David S. Salsburg Douglas B. Tang John J. Wiorkowski Robert A. McLean Emanuel Parzen Charles B. Sampson Elliot A. Tanis John E. Witcher Curtis Meinert James L. Pate Innis G. Sande Judith M. Tanur Janet Wittes Edward L. Melnick Rusi K.N Patell Eberhard G. Schaich James R. Thompson John Harmon Wolfe Peter F. Merenda Ganapati P. Patil Richard L. Scheaffer Leo J. Tick Donald E. Young Paul W. Mielke Edward B. Perrin Robert R. Scheer Lowell H. Tomlinson Calvin Zippin G. Arthur Mihram Roger C. Pfaffenberger David Schenker James Tonascia

45-49 years Abdelmonem A. Afifi Abdolrahman Azari Gary L. Brager Domenic V. Cicchetti Gerard E. Dallal Robert A. Agnew Charles K. Bayne William M. Brelsford William S. Cleveland James M. Davenport Alan Agresti Laurel A. Beckett Robert L. Brennan Jerry L. Coffey Robert L. Davis Per A. T. Akersten Richard J. Beckman Dwight B. Brock Guy M. Cohen Enrique de Alba Arthur E. Albert Mary S. Beersman Mark Brown Stanley H. Cohen Timothy A. DeRouen Mir Masoom Ali Kenneth N. Berk John A. Burkart Kimon J.E. Constas Susan J. Devlin Mukhtar M. Ali U. Narayan Bhat Kenneth P. Burnham R. Dennis Cook Jay L. Devore Stan Altan Peter J. Bickel Patricia L. Busk Lewis Coopersmith Paula H. Diehr Alfred Jerry Anderson Lynne Billard William L. Carlson Robert J. Costello W. Erwin Diewert Robert L. Andrews Christopher Bingham Margaret D. Carroll Bradford R. Crain Darryl J. Downing W. Tad Archambault David S. Birkes Raymond J. Carroll Giles L. Crane Dennis A. DuBose Jesse C. Arnold John A. Blessing Walter H. Carter John R. Crigler Francois A. Dupuis Ersen Arseven Brent A. Blumenstein Edwin H. Chen David S. Crosby Benjamin S. Duran James N. Arvesen Lennart Bodin Raj S. Chhikara Larry H. Crow Danny Dyer Orley Ashenfelter Gordon J. Brackstone Joseph J. Chmiel Jonathan D. Cryer Robert G. Easterling Corwin L. Atwood Edwin L. Bradley Lee-Jay Cho Gary R. Cutter Brenda Kay Edwards

6 amstat news april 2016 Longtime members Janet D. Elashoff Agnes M. Herzberg Yves Lepage J. Keith Ord Nagambal D. Shah Milton C. Fan Klaus Hinkelmann Donald Lewin Albert C. Ovedovitz Paul Shaman Robert E. Fay David C. Hoaglin David L. Libby Maurice E. B. Owens Gary M. Shapiro Walter Feibes Theodore R. Holford Robert G. Lovell William J. Padgett Ronald E. Shiffler Alan H. Feiveson David W. Hosmer Stanley E. Lunde Darrel W. Parke Iris M. Shimizu Alan C. Fisher David C. Howell Lars Lyberg Leonard J. Parsons Albert P. Shulte Andrew J. Flatt Paul B. Huber George W. Lynch Jon K. Peck Robert H. Shumway Jairus D. Flora William F. Hunt James R. Maar Arthur V. Peterson Jon J. Shuster Sandra Forman Frank L. Hurley Bruce E. Mackey Charles G. Pfeifer Moshe Sicron James W. Frane Huynh Huynh Dennis R. Mar Eswar G. Phadia Jagbir Singh Daniel H. Freeman Dar-Shong Hwang Helen Marcus-Roberts Louis A. Pingel Nozer D. Singpurwalla Mark C. Fulcomer Ronald L. Iman Robert L. Mason Mike Pore Walter Sloboda Mitchell H. Gail Peter B. Imrey Takashi Matsui Stephen L. Portnoy Dennis E. Smith Edward J. Gainer William G. Jackson Clement J. Maurath Ross L. Prentice Mitchell Snyder Daniel J. Gans David Jacobson George P. McCabe Philip J. Press F. Michael Speed Fernando L. Garagorry F. E. James James B. McDonald Bertram Price Randall K. Spoeri John A. Gaudiosi Sreenivasa Rao Lyman L. McDonald Philip C. Prorok M. K. Srirama Jammalamadaka Douglas O. Gause John D. McKenzie Thomas W. Pullum Muni S. Srivastava J. D. Jobson Stephen L. George Glen D. Meeden Madan L. Puri Allan Stewart-Oaten Clifford L. Johnson Gauri L. Ghai Jeff B. Meeker David A. Pyne Robert L. Stout Dallas E. Johnson Prabhakar D. James I. Mellon J. G. Ramage Jerrell T. Stracener Ghangurde Richard A. Johnson Gayle T. Meltesen Calyampudi R. Rao William E. Strawderman Edward J. Gilroy Paul K. Jones William L. Mietlowski George F. Reed Nariaki Sugiura Howard Seth Gitlow John D. Kalbfleisch George A. Milliken Benjamin Reiser Moon W. Suh John R. Gleason John H. Kalbfleisch Satish Chandra Misra Louise C. Remer Michael Sutherland T. F. Glover Balvant K. Kale Robert Mondschein Richard D. Rippe Aaron Tenenbein Prem K. Goel William D. Kalsbeek Douglas C. Bernard Rosner Ronald A. Thisted Judith D. Goldberg Howard S. Kaplon Montgomery Donald C. Ross Carol B. Thompson Robert N. Goldman Joseph D. Kasile Roderick Montgomery Donald B. Rubin Steven F. Thomson J. Douglas Gordon Myron J. Katzoff Billy J. Moore Barbara J. Rutledge Ram C. Tripathi Louis Gordon Thomas Keefe David S. Moore Julia Sabella Bruce W. Turnbull Bernard S. Gorman David L. Kimble John K. Moore Susan T. Sacks Neil R. Ullman David M. Grether Roger E. Kirk Effat A. Moussa Francisco J. Samaniego Gerald van Belle William E. Griffiths David C. Korts Govind S. Mudholkar Douglas A. Samuelson Joseph G. Van Matre Joseph A. Guarnieri Neal Koss Robb J. Muirhead Patricia D. Saunders Lonnie C. Vance Richard F. Gunst Helena C. Kraemer Henry D. Muse James J. Schlesselman Wayne F. Velicer Shelby J. Haberman Richard J. Kryscio Wayne L. Myers Joyce A. Schlieter Paul F. Velleman Hermann Habermann Arabinda Kundu Subhash C. Narula Josef Schmee Hrishikesh D. Vinod Robert E. Hale Lynn Roy LaMotte Glenn L. Nelson James Schmeidler R. Lakshmi Silas Halperin Kenneth C. Land Anna B. Nevius Vishnuvajjala William R. Schucany Chien-Pai Han James M. Landwehr S. Edward Nevius Kenneth W. Wachter Eugene F. Schuster R. Choudary Hanumara Per Lange David S. Newman Sylvan Wallenstein Neil C. Schwertman Lynne B. Hare Kinley Larntz Earl Nordbrock George H. Wang Stuart Scott Larry D. Haugh William D. Lawing Julia A. Norton James F. Ward Nell Sedransk Robert M. Hauser Jerald F. Lawless Marija J. Norusis James H. Ware Subrata K. Sen Douglas M. Hawkins Anthony James Robert L. Obenchain Edward J. Wegman Jolayne W. Service Lawrance William F. Heiland Peter C. O’Brien Lynn Weidman Jayaram Sethuraman Kenneth D. Lawrence Karl W. Heiner Jerry L. Oglesby Sanford Weisberg Juliet Popper Shaffer Russell V. Lenth Robert W. Hertz Leonard Oppenheimer K. Laurence Weldon

april 2016 amstat news 7 James P. Whipple George W. Williams Gooloo S. Wunderlich Eric R. Ziegel Owen Whitby Douglas A. Wolfe Morty Yalovsky Stuart O. Zimmerman David G. Whitmore Robert F. Woolson Ann Graham Zauber 40-45 years Dennis Aaron Bibhuti B. Michael R. Chernick William H. Epstein Robert D. Gordon Bhattacharyya Robert D. Abbott Nanjamma Chinnappa Eugene P. Ericksen Stephanie J. Green Wayne F. Bialas Sandra C. Abbott Joan Sander Chmiel James W. Evans Timothy A. Green William T. Bielby John M. Abowd Jai Won Choi Michael J. Evans William H. Greene Paul P. Biemer Bovas Abraham George W. Cobb Ray E. Faith Joel B. Greenhouse Robert H. Bigelow Judith Abrams Timothy C. Coburn Thomas B. Farver John Vic Grice Richard A. Bilonick Lee R. Abramson Steven B. Cohen Alan Fask Susan Groshen Jeffrey B. Birch C. J. Adcock James J. Colaianne John P. Fazio Marvin H. J. Gruber Herbert L. Bishop Frances J. Adox John R. Collins Ronald S. Fecso Leslie S. Grunes Richard M. Bittman Robert W. Aldred Salvatore V. Colucci Martin Feuerman Victor M. Guerrero Jan F. Bjornstad Francis B. Alt Kennon R. Copeland David F. Findley Perry D. Haaland Mark M. Blanchard Dallas W. Anderson Margaret D. Carl Thomas Finkbeiner Timothy O. Haifley Peter Bloomfield Copenhaver Keaven M. Anderson Nicholas I. Fisher David B. Hall Harvey Blumberg Charles D. Cowan Robert J. Anderson Allen I. Fleishman James L. Hall Dan C. Boger Brenda G. Cox Sharon Anderson Nancy Flournoy Nancy R. Hall Robert J. Boik Andrew Joseph Bengtung Ben Ang Hans-Theo Forst David C. Hamilton Cucchiara James A. Bolognese Lawrence Annable Peter E. Fortini Janet M. Hanley William G. Cumberland Dennis Boos Steve Ascher Mary A. Foulkes Robert C. Hannum L. Adrienne Cupples Marie V. Bousfield Taka Ashikaga Janet F. Fowler David Hardison Robert D. Curley John E. Boyer Anthony C. Atkinson John D. Fox William V. Harper Andrew I. Dale Norman M. Bradburn Agustin F. Ayuso Leroy A. Franklin Frank E. Harrell Prithwis Dasgupta Ellen F. Brewer Stephen P. Baker Martin D. Fraser Stephen P. Harris Roberta W. Day J. Michael Brick Saad T. Bakir David Frontz Kenneth R. Hartmann Michael L. Deaton David R. Bristol Vincent P. Barabba Barbara A. Gabianelli Maurine A. Haver Pierre C. Delfiner Ron Brookmeyer William A. Barnett Stephen J. Ganocy Ronald W. Hawkinson David L. DeMets Dean S. Bross John L. Barone Turkan K. Gardenier Richard M. Heiberger Lorraine Denby Rocco L. Brunelle Michael P. Battaglia Edward E. Gbur Lance K. Heilbrun Wayne S. Desarbo Edward C. Bryant Eileen J. Beachell Robin T. Geiger Harold V. Henderson Thomas F. Devlin Richard K. Burdick Patricia C. Becker Alan E. Gelfand Ellen Hertzmark E. Jacquelin Dietz John M. Bushery Richard A. Becker Fredric C. Genter Thomas Herzog David P. Doane Thomas J. Bzik Jay H. Beder Cynthia D. Gentillon James L. Hess Allan P. Donner Lawrence S. Cahoon Steven Belle Malay Ghosh Eugene R. Heyman Joseph R. Donovan Patrick J. Cantwell Robert B. Bendel David E. Giles James J. Higgins Janice L. Dubien Grant D. Capps James O. Berger Phyllis A. Gimotty Steven C. Hillmer Joseph W. Duncan Arthur Carpenter Roger L. Berger Dennis R. Givens Susan M. Hinkins William D. Dupont Daniel B. Carr Timothy M. Bergquist Beth C. Gladen Jerry L. Hintze L. Marlin Eby Frank C. Castronova James S. Bergum Marcia A. Glauberman Raymond G. Hoffmann Marlene J. Egger Amrut M. Champaneri Catherine S. Berkey Joseph Glaz Thomas P. Hogan Kathleen Louise Emery John P. Chandler Jose Miguel Bernardo Avni Goeksel Alan Hopkins Wil B. Emmert Judith-Anne W. Ernst R. Berndt Richard F. Goldstein Berne Martin Howard Chapman Curtis S. Engelhard David J. Bernklau Joe Fred Gonzalez Ina P. Howell Yogendra P. Chaubey Thomas W. Epps James H. Goodnight Elizabeth T. Huang Gina G. Chen Samuel M. Epstein

8 amstat news april 2016 Longtime members Marla L. Huddleston Mansum A. Lam Michael J. Mazu Melvin L. Ott N. Phillip Ross Mark Hudes Carol J. Lancaster Janet Elizabeth Willis L. Owen Lawrence V. Rubinstein McDougall Mohammad F. Huque J. Richard Landis Mari Palta David Ruppert Stephen A. McGuire David N. Ikle Nicolaas F. Laubscher William S. Pan Estelle Russek-Cohen Joseph W. McKean Duane M. Ilstrup Philip T. Lavin Swamy A.V.B. Paravastu Carl T. Russell Geoffrey J. McLachlan John M. Irvine Sheila M. Lawrence Won J. Park Thomas P. Ryan Christine E. McLaren Alan J. Izenman Johannes Ledolter Rudolph S. Parrish Michael S. Saccucci Don L. McLeish Allen E. Izu Kelvin K. Lee Van L. Parsons Thomas W. Sager William Q. Meeker Kirk A. Jackson Kerry L. Lee Jeffrey S. Passel John P. Sall Cyrus R. Mehta William E. Jackson Martin L. Lee Kevin Pate William M. Sallas Robert J. Meier David Jaspen James D. Leeper Charles L. Paule Allan R. Sampson Kathleen A. Mellars Jean G. Jenkins Stanley A. Lemeshow Karl E. Peace Gilles F. M. Santini Roy Mendelssohn Linda W. Jennings Heryee H. Leong N. Shirlene Pearson Thomas J. Santner Michael M. Meyer Robert W. Jernigan James M. Lepkowski Raymond C. Peck Robert L. Santos Terry G. Meyer Bruce E. Johnson Trudy J. Lerer Peter H. Peskun Nathan E. Savin Joel E. Michalek Paulette M. Johnson Martin L. Lesser A. John Petkau Richard L. Sawyer Richard O. Michaud Gerald A. Joireman Marcia J. Levenstein Daniel Pfeffermann William G. Saylor Mary-Jane Mietlowski Ian T. Jolliffe Bruce Levin John G. Phillips Patricia A. Scanlan John A. Miller David C. Jordan Charles Lewis Philip J. Pichotta Stephen Schacht John Francis Monahan Harmon S. Jordan Shou-Hua Li Linda Williams Pickle Nancy K. Schatz Katherine L. Monti Henry D. Kahn Walter S. Liggett Joseph G. Pigeon Kenneth Schechtman Thomas F. Moore Lee D. Kaiser Lawrence I-Kuei Lin Dale J. Poirier Mildred E. Schmidt George E. Morgan Theodore G. Karrison Carol L. Link William E. Pollard David A. Schoenfeld David R. Morganstein Daniel Kasprzyk Robert E. Little Darwin H. Poritz Timothy L. Schofield Max D. Morris Richard W. Katz George A. Livingston Frank J. Potter Friedrich W. Scholz Barbara G. Robert M. Katz Greta M. Ljung Randall W. Potter John H. Schuenemeyer Mroczkowski Sheryl F. Kelsey Roger Longbotham Manfred Precht Donald J. Schuirmann Lawrence H. Muhlbaier James L. Kenkel Michael T. Longnecker Dale L. Preston Alastair John Scott Leigh W. Murray James L. Kepner Thomas A. Louis Kevin Price William L. Seaver John C. Nash Andre I. Khuri Milton W. Loyer Lloyd P. Provost Joseph Sedransk Elliott Nebenzahl Byung-Soo Kim Jay H. Lubin John N. Quiring Teddy I. Seidenfeld Reinhard Neck Ignatius A. Kinsella Donald M. Luery Tony K. S. Quon Thomas R. Sexton Gary L. Neidert Nancy J. Kirkendall James Lynch Alfred W. Rademaker Glenn R. Shafer James W. Neill Syed N.U.A. Kirmani John MacIntyre Volker W. Rahlfs Arvind K. Shah Margaret A. Nemeth Rudolf G. Kittlitz Michael E. Mack Philip H. Ramsey Mohammed A. Shayib H. Joseph Newton Beat Kleiner Kathleen S. Madsen Gopa Ray Shingo Shirahata El-Sayed E. Nour Stuart A. Klugman Jay Magidson Rose M. Ray Patrick E. Shrout Thomas S. Kenneth J. Koehler Linda C. Malone Nunnikhoven William J. Raynor Andrew F. Siegel Edward L. Korn Charles F. Manski Barry D. Nussbaum Kenneth J. Resser Richard S. Sigman Kenneth J. Koury Kanti V. Mardia David Oakes Mark William Riggs Judith D. Singer Abba M. Krieger Mary A. Marion Kevin F. O’Brien Paula K. Roberson Robert D. Small S. David Kriska Ray L. Marr Ralph G. O’Brien Rosemary A. Roberts Martyn R. Smith Pieter M. Kroonenberg David B. Marx Michael W. O’’Donnell Jeffrey A. Robinson Murray H. Smith Naoto Kunitomo Donald L. Marx Judith Rich O’Fallon Frank W. Rockhold William A. Sollecito Robert Kushler Victor M. Matthews Walter W. Offen Robert N. Rodriguez Dan J. Sommers Alan H. Kvanli LeRoy T. Mattson Patrick D. O’Meara Russell H. Roegner Keith A. Soper John M. Lachin Timothy A. Max Bernard V. O’Neill John E. Rolph Terence P. Speed James R. Lackritz Margaret W. Maxfield Terence John O’Neill Paul R. Rosenbaum Bruce D. Spencer Nan Laird Scott E. Maxwell Joyce Orsini James L. Rosenberger Clifford H. Spiegelman

april 2016 amstat news 9 Nancy L. Spruill Gerald R. Swope Kam-Wah Tsui Katherine K. Wallman Rand R. Wilcox Donald M. Stablein Ajit C. Tamhane Alan R. Tupek Stephen D. Walter Leland Wilkinson William M. Stanish Robert M. Tardiff David L. Turner Chao Wang Jean F. Williams Richard M. Stanley Erica S. Taucher Gregory W. Ulferts Sophronia W. Ward Stephen R. Williams Robert R. Starbuck Marcia A. Testa Jessica M. Utts Herbert W. Ware William J. Wilson David W. Stewart A. Cole Thies Pamela M. Vacek Stanley Wasserman Michael A. Wincek Gerald R. Stewart Hanspeter Thoeni Richard L. Valliant William L. Weber Lawrence C. Wolfe John A. Stewart John M. Thomas Richard Craig Van William E. Wecker Kirk M. Wolter Nostrand Robert A. Stine John H. Thompson Thomas E. Wehrly Wayne A. Woodward Kerstin Vannman Sandra S. Stinnett Mary E. Thompson William W. S. Wei Farroll T. Wright Stephen B. Vardeman Michael A. Stoto Theodore J. Thompson Daniel L. Weiner Tommy Wright Denton R. Vaughan Miron L. Straf Richard B. Tiller Jon August Wellner Marvin Yablon Niels H. Veldhuijzen Donna F. Stroup Ronald R. Titus Roy E. Welsch Michael G. Yochmowitz Joseph S. Verducci Walter W. Stroup Jerome D. Toporek Fredrick S. Whaley Sarah T. Young Hajime Wago Perla Subbaiah Robert D. Tortora Robert M. Wharton Daniel Zelterman Grace Wahba Richard A. Sundheim David C. Trindade Andrew A. White James R. zumBrunnen Joel A. Waksman Robert Sutherland J.R. Roger Trudel Roy W. Whitmore Joseph J. Walker David A. Swanson L. Claire Tsao Howard L. Wiener

35-39 years Michael A. Adena James A. Baldwin H. Christine Bourquin Raymond L. Chambers Michael P. Cohen Joseph Adwere- David L. Banks Robert D. Bowser Charles W. Champ Michael L. Cohen Boamah Thomas A. Bass Michael N. Boyd Promod K. Chandhok Stephen H. Cohen Dennis P. Affholter Karin M. Bauer Nancy J. Boynton Richard A. Chechile Richard Daniel Cohn Mohammad Ahsanullah Andrew Lewis Rollin F. Brant Chen-Hsin Chen Hans Colonius Baughman Adelin I. Albert Mary-Lynn Brecht James J. Chen Charles F. Contant Moraye B. Bear James H. Albert James E. Breneman William W.S. Chen Richard S. Conway Mark P. Becker Jeanne M. Aldred Thomas W. Broene Ching-Shui Cheng Bruce K. Cooil Paula J. Beitler Melvin T. Alexander Roger L. Brown Richard P. Chiacchierini Nancy R. Cook Alexander E. Belinfante Rich Allen Judith A. Buchino Yu-Kun Chiang Peyton J. Cook Michael E. Bellow Paul D. Allison Shelley B. Bull Vernon M. Chinchilli Patricia S. Costello Julia L. Benson Wendy L. Alvey Christine M. Bunck Paul C. Chiou Lawrence H. Cox Peter M. Bentler W. Gregory Alvord Lawrence F. Burant Youn-Min Chou John R. Crammer Nancy Berman Yasuo Amemiya Thomas E. Burk Ronald Christensen Keith N. Crank Debra H. Bernstein John Angle Harry F. Bushar Peter D. Christenson James A. Creiman Charles C. Berry Clifford W. Angstman Richard J. Caplan Tin Chiu Chua Noel A. Cressie James Calvin Berry Thomas Arbutiski David A. Carlin Christy Chuang-Stein Douglas E. Critchlow Jonas V. Bilenas Susanne Aref Lynda T. Carlson Constance F. Citro Leonard A. Cupingood Thomas E. Billings Vincent C. Arena B. Thomas Carr B. Christine Clark Estella Bee Dagum Thomas R. Birkett Stephan Arndt John F. Carter Cynthia Z.F. Clark Robin A. Darton David K. Blough Arlene S. Ash Nancy J. Carter Murray K. Clayton Marie Davidian Carol Joyce Blumberg Tim Baer L. Douglas Case Daren B. H. Cline Bruce M. Davis Douglas G. Bonett Jenny A. Baglivo Aki N. Caszatt Avital Cnaan Charles S. Davis David E. Booth John Bailer Deborah A. Cernauskas Paul E. Coffman Richard A. Davis Richard C. Borden Steven P. Bailey Subhabrata Mark E. Cohen Roger B. Davis Victor Marek Borun Chakraborti

10 amstat news april 2016 Longtime members Thomas M. Davis Arthur Fries Wolf-Dieter Heller Joseph L. Katz Stephen W. Looney Willis L. Davis Shayne C. Gad David H. Henry Jerome P. Keating James T. Love Thomas C. Dawe Paul Gallo Michael Hesney Sallie Keller Joseph F. Lucke Virginia A. de Wolf Michael A. Gates Richard P. Heydorn Elizabeth J. Kelly Helmut Luetkepohl Angela M. Dean Constantine Gatsonis Susan G. Hilsenbeck Joan Kempthorne- Michael J. Luvalle Rawson Roger L. Deaton Jeffrey J. Gaynor Chihiro Hirotsu Michael F. Macaluso Arthur J. Kendall Michael R. Delozier Philip M. Gbur Joseph G. Hirschberg Stephen P. Mack Harry J. Khamis Richard A. Derrig Joseph C. Gfroerer Edward C. Hirschland David Peter Mackinnon KyungMann Kim Jeanne A. Devin Subir Ghosh Douglas A. Hlavacek Donald Macnaughton John E. Kimmel Marie Diener-West John A. Gillespie Myron Hlynka Laurentius Marais Robin Laurence Kirby Ralph Digaetano Michael E. Ginevan Lorrie L. Hoffman Mervyn G. Marasinghe Genshiro Kitagawa Thomas W. Dobbins William J. Glynn Howard R. Hogan James C March John C. Klensin John E. Donmyer A. Blanton Godfrey Larry R. Holden Sue M. Marcus George J. Knafl Gerald A. Dorfman Alfred D. Godfrey Paul S. Horn David A. Marker Henryka K. Komanska Gaylen W. Drape Susan C. Goebel Carol C. House Paul J. Marovich David P. Kopcso Kevin Ward Drummey Miguel A. Gomez- Wei-Min Huang James Martin Villegas Samuel Koslowsky Bonnie P. Dumas Esther Sid Hudes Adam T. Martinsek Nancy M. Gordon Kallappa M. Koti Charles L. Dunn Arthur L. Hughes Michael P. Massagli Barry I. Graubard Ken G. Kowalski Harold E. Dyck Edward Hughes Joe Matsuoka J. Brian Gray Lawrence Krasnoff Jean L. Dyer Allen C. Humbolt Carl A. Mauro Janis G. Grechko Jeffrey P. Krischer Kirk A. Easley Luis H. Hurtado Fred M. Mayes Edwin J. Green Alok Krishen Jeffrey H. Ebersole Deborah D. Ingram Charles Maynard John W. Green Katherine B. Krystinik Robert G. Edson Henry F. Inman Paul R. McAllister Daniel A. Greer Richard A. Kulka Don Edwards Patricia A. Jacobs Donna K. McClish James A. Grimes Lynn Kuo Thomas Barry Edwards Paul D. James Joseph P. McCloskey David J. Groggel Edward Lakatos Bruce P. Ekholm Denis George Janky Kenneth F. McCue Shulamith T. Gross Kuang-Kuo Gordon Lan Paul J. Elson Guillermina Jasso Peter McCullagh Berton H. Gunter Jurate M. Landwehr John D. Emerson Christopher Jennison Daniel L. McGee Ramesh C. Gupta Jerry Langley Patricia A. English Herbert Y. Jew Philip G. McGuire Yesvy Gustasp Stephen S. Langley Eugene A. Enneking Karl-Heinz Jockel Raymond E. McIntyre Sam Gutterman Linda B. Lannom Neil R. Ericsson B. Alan Johnson Kenneth B. McRae Josue Guzman Lisa M. LaVange Kent M. Eskridge Gary R. Johnson Shailendra S. Menjoge Michael Haber Barbara A. Leczynski Mark A. Espeland LuAnn K. Johnson Michael Meredith Michael D. Hale Hyunshik J. Lee Sylvia R. Esterby Robert E. Johnson Samuel Merrill Marc Hallin Kwan R. Lee David Fairley Albyn C. Jones Marianne E. Messina William A. Halteman John J. Lefante Frederick W. Faltin Karen C. Jones R. Daniel Meyer Katherine T. Halvorsen Robert George Lehr Dean H. Fearn Michael P. Jones H. Andrew Michener Michael S. Hamada Greg M. Lepak Michael B. Feil Shelton M. Jones Rosemarie Mick Herbert Hamilton Donald K. Lewis Luisa T. Fernholz David R. Judkins William E. Mihalo John B. Hannon Richard A. Lewis G. Donald Ferree Karen Kafadar Eva R. Miller J. Michael Hardin Steven A. Lewis Christopher A. Field Leslie A. Kalish Michael F. Miller Jeffrey D. Hart Wai K. Li Dianne M. Finkelstein Tzu-Cheg Kao Renee H. Miller Rachel M. Harter Lillian S. Lin Patrick E. Flanagan Roxanne Kapikian David H. Moen Nancy C. Hassett Wayne S. Lindsay T. A. Foster Bruce A. Kaplan Leyla K. Mohadjer Trevor J. Hastie Barbara A. Lingg Anne E. Freeny John M. Karon Donna L. Mohr Gary D. Hatfield Charles L. Liss Larry D. Freese Charles R. Katholi Robert J. Mokken William D. Heavlin Jen-Pei Liu Stephen A. Freitas Barry P. Katz Leslie M. Moore Charles E. Heckler Wei-Yin Loh Frederick L. Freme Darryl Katz Walter T. Morgan

april 2016 amstat news 11 Elizabeth A. Robert A. Parker Gary L. Rosner Mark R. Shenkman David M. Thissen Morgenthien Jeffrey R. Parno Peter J. Rousseeuw Malcolm J. Sherman Neal Thomas June Morita Robert E. Parson Andrew L. Rukhin Weichung J. Shih Peter James Thomson Christopher H. Morrell Lee Parsons George C. Runger Lucy Shneyer Anthony D. Thrall David T. Morse Sharon M. Passe Keith F. Rust Gary L. Shoop Luke-Jon Tierney Michael J. Morton Robert J. Pavur Roland T. Rust Stanley A. Shulman Naitee Ting Linda L. C. Moss Roxy L. Peck Steven W. Rust Arthur R. Silverberg Ruey-Shiong Tsay Tetsuro Motoyama Jane F. Pendergast Jim Rutherford Jeffrey S. Simonoff Siu-Keung Tse Mohamed Ahmed Amin Moussa Elgin S. Perry Pedro J. Saavedra Terry L. Sincich Clyde Tucker Ronald P. Mowers Kimberly T. Perry William H. Sachs Douglas R. Sizemore Thomas P. Turiel Daniel H. Mowrey John D. Pesek Jerome Sacks Christopher John Thomas J. Uryniak Skinner Nitis Mukhopadhyay David W. Peterson Mehmet Sahinoglu Esa Ilkka Uusipaikka Joan H. Skurnick Keith E. Muller John J. Peterson Ulderico Santarelli Mark J. VanRaden Charles Eugene Smith Alvaro Munoz Joseph D. Petruccelli Michael J. Santulli Steven J. Verhulst Elizabeth C. Smith Jay Munson Gerald L. Phillips Adriano L. Sarmiento Steve P. Verrill Richard J. Smith Bengt Muthen Walter W. Piegorsch Miles M. Sato Joseph G. Voelkel Richard L. Smith Haikady N. Nagaraja Gregory F. Piepel John W. Sawyer Robert L. Vogel Robert A. Smith Jayalakshmi Natarajan Chester H. Ponikowski Stephen M. Scariano Joachim Vollmar Stephen J. Smith William Navidi Dudley L. Poston David J. Schaeffer Edward F. Vonesh Longtime members Longtime Tom A.B. Snijders Larry Alan Nelson Paul N. Powell Daniel W. Schafer Howard Wainer Karen L. Snowdon-Way Dean V. Neubauer J. Michael Price Nathaniel Schenker Paul G. Wakim Ying C. So Tie-Hua Ng Louis H. Primavera Mark J. Schervish Lars Walloe Jose Francisco Soares Truc Truong Nguyen Howard M. Proskin Mark F. Schilling Chai-Ho C. Wang Francisco P. Soler Joyce C. Niland Jamie K. Pugh Brian R. Schlain Ann E. Watkins Eric R. Sowey David Butcher Nolle William M. Pugh David C. Schlotzhauer Carol Weideman Floyd W. Spencer Michael A. Nolte Clifford R. Qualls Mark D. Schluchter David L. Weimer John J. Spinelli Phillip N. Norton James O. Ramsay Paul R. Schneeman Clarice R. Weinberg Gene D. Sprechini Robert M. Norton Dabeeru C. Rao Daniel James Schnell William J. Welch Kadaba P. Srinath Douglas W. Nychka Richard F. Raubertas John R. Schoenfelder James G. Wendelberger Edward J. Stanek Thomas W. O’Gorman Howard L. Rauch John D. Schoolfield Joanne R. Joel H. Steckel Wendelberger Francis G. Ogrinc Domenic J. Reda Donald E. Schreiner Leonard A. Stefanski Glenn D. White William P. O’Hare Nancy Reid Charles B. Schriver Seth M. Steinberg David C. Whitford Akinori Ohashi William K. Rice Linda Kay Schultz Lorraine C. Steiner David A. Whitney Noboru Ohsumi Wasima N. Rida Phyllis A. Schumacher Barbara Stevens Dexter C. Whittinghill Thomas H. Oliphant William J. Riley Steven J. Schwager David S. Stoffer Priya J. Wickramaratne Frank Olken James S. Roberts Lawrence A. Schwartz Maura E. Stokes Christopher John Wild John A. Ondrasik Edwin L. Robison Sidney H. Schwartz S. Lynne Stokes William E. Wilkinson George Ostrouchov David M. Rocke Michael Schwarzschild Mark C. Strong Thomas R. Willemain Soo Peter Ouyang Richard A. Rode James R. Schwenke Mark Lionel Suda Jeffrey R. Wilson William J. Owen Mark H. Rodeffer David W. Scott Stephen R. Sulpor William E. Winkler Albert Palachek Jack Rodgers Joanne B. Severe James J. Swain Luke G. Wolfe Alberto Palloni Ward Rodriguez Joseph Severs Yoshio Takane Glenn S. Wolfgang J. Lynn Palmer Nestor Rohowsky Bahman Shafii Roy Noriki Tamura F. Lennie Wong Deborah L. Panebianco Javier Rojo Ramalingam Shanmugam Deborah L. Tasky John Charles Wurst Sastry G. Pantula Anthony M. Roman Steven J. Shapiro Robert L. Taylor Emmanuel Yashchin Corette Breeden Parker Elvezio Ronchetti Mack C. Shelley George R. Terrell Linda J. Young Mary R. Parker Robin L. Rose John T. Shelton Brian J. Thelen Elizabeth R. Zell

12 amstat news april 2016 Photo by Emanuel Saavedra Leonard Smith, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Robert Corell, and Steve Pierson met to discuss climate science research and climate change impacts in February. ASA Participates in Sixth Climate Science Day Steve Pierson, ASA Director of Science Policy wo members of the ASA Advisory Senate staffers—the afternoon prior about the CSD Committee on Climate Change Policy message and how to conduct an effective meeting. (ACCCP) participated in the sixth annual The preparation has also traditionally included a TClimate Science Day (CSD) in February. Leonard climate science communications expert. This year’s Smith of the London School of Economics and expert, Katherine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University, Pembroke College, Oxford, completed his sixth gave her talk, “Talking Climate: Why Facts Are Not CSD and Daniel Cooley of Colorado State Enough,” by webinar (http://bit.ly/1UPNy2X). University his first. Participants and the science society profession- Smith and Cooley were among 22 scientists par- als noted two encouraging developments in the ticipating in 80 meetings with members of Congress U.S. House of Representatives on climate change, or, more likely, their staff about their climate science which is generally a polarizing issue. One was the research and climate change impacts possible for the formation of the Bipartisan Climate Caucus, which state or congressional district. The participants, who was announced the day of the CSD briefing and were partnered with a scientist of another discipline headed by Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) and Rep. for their day of meetings, also offered themselves as Ted Deutch (D-FL). Smith’s team met with staff for resources on any climate science questions. both offices and learned the new caucus plans to Unlike most congressional visits days, CSD does start out with four Republicans and four Democrats not have a policy ask such as to support a certain bill and emphasize informational briefings relating to or budget. Instead, the ask is that they consult one climate change impacts. For any member to join the of the scientists or participating societies when they caucus, he or she will have to find a member of the have a climate science question. For this year’s event, other party with whom to join. the message that science societies agree climate change The other development was the 2015 is happening, with human activity being almost cer- Environmental Stewardship Resolution 424, spon- tainly the primary driver, was made more explicit. In sored by Rep. Chris Gibson (R-NY) and 11 fellow the past, this message was implicit, with a 2009 letter Republicans expressing “the commitment of the signed by the heads of 18 science organizations (http:// House of Representatives to work constructively on bit.ly/1X9Np98) included in the leave-behind packet. creating and supporting economically viable and CSD is sponsored and organized by the Climate broadly supported solutions to measured changes in Science Working Group, which is comprised of 20 global and regional climates.” professional associations and other scientific organi- For more information about CSD, contact ASA zations. To prepare for the meetings, the participants Director of Science Policy Steve Pierson at pierson@ heard from a variety of speakers—including two amstat.org. n april 2016 amstat news 13 ASA LEADERS REMINISCE Nancy Geller James Cochran In the sixteenth installment of the Amstat News series of interviews with ASA presidents and executive directors, we feature a discussion with 2011 ASA President Nancy L. Geller.

All your degrees are in mathematics. Q How then did you become a biostatistician? I majored in math at The City College of New A York (CCNY), where I took and really liked probability theory. I applied to graduate schools with the intent of doing a PhD in probability theory, but almost all the activity at that time was in math departments. In graduate school, I had been told that if I wanted to study probability theory, I also had to study statistics, and so I did, and my thesis was on the distribution of test statistics of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov type. After my PhD, my first faculty position was Nancy L. Geller has been the director of at the University of Rochester’s Department of Statistics, which cemented my love for statistics. the Office of Biostatistics Research at the I then became an assistant professor in the statis- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of tics department at the University of Pennsylvania. the National Institutes of Health since 1990. That department is in the Wharton School, and She directs a group of 12 statisticians who business and economics was never my interest. collaborate in the design, implementation, After a few years at Penn, I moved across town monitoring, and analysis of multicenter to be the biostatistician at the Medical College of clinical trials in heart, lung, and blood Pennsylvania. If they knew how little biostatistics I diseases and sleep disorders. She also knew, they probably wouldn’t have hired me! But administers all statistical activities of the certainly my PhD trained me to educate myself, so National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. I was able to study biostatistics—specifically survival analysis—on my own. The position was a lonely She has been and continues to be involved one and, after one year, I took the opportunity to in the design and analysis of a number of move to Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center large cardiovascular and hematopoietic to have statistical, as well as, medical colleagues. stem cell transplantation trials, including That’s when I became a real biostatistician! the Women’s Health Initiative clinical trial of hormone replacement therapy, the What did you initially find most attractive Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Q about the opportunity to join the National Diabetes or ACCORD trial, and several Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, or NHLBI, at multiple myeloma trials. the National Institutes of Health? After 10 years at Sloan-Kettering, I was interested Geller has published more than 200 papers A in trying something new. The biostatistics group in the statistical and medical literature. She at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute is an associate editor of Biometrics and had a long and illustrious history of leadership in a fellow of both the American Statistical the field. The opportunity to lead it was an honor I Association and the International Statistics found compelling and still do after many years. Institute. She was the winner of the 2009 What do you find most rewarding in your Janet L. Norwood Award for Outstanding Q current position as director of the Office of Achievement by a Woman in the Statistical Biostatistics Research with the NHLBI? Sciences and 2011 president of the I find participating in medical research quite American Statistical Association. A compelling. At NHLBI, there are always new

14 amstat news april 2016 challenges and opportunities to learn new things, that concerned assessing accrual in clinical trials. both about statistics and medicine. And it is amaz- Those authors could have improved their paper if ing and thrilling how smart everyone around me only they had a biostatistical collaborator! While is! I also enjoy mentoring my junior colleagues. I could initiate collaboration with these authors, it is more likely that I collaborate with colleagues Mentoring of statisticians early in their at NHLBI about this topic. As for whether our Qcareers is critical to their professional suc- colleagues are improving with respect to these cess, especially in a nonacademic setting. How skills, graduate programs in biostatistics today does the NHLBI handle mentoring of its early are teaching soft skills as well as technical skills, career statisticians? As director of the Office of and I think that should help statisticians appreci- Biostatistics Research with the NHLBI, have you ate what it takes to be a successful collaborator. established mentoring programs for the statisticians you bring into your office? You worked on cancer research early in I mentor many people, but particularly my Q your career, and then you moved into A junior colleagues. When someone joins the heart, lung, and blood research. What moti- Office of Biostatistics Research, they are mentored vated this transition? by more than one more experienced member of our A statistician can work in any field of appli- group. Often I do a project with them, but since A cation. Although I never considered going to different people have different styles and person- medical school, I always found medicine interest- alities, it is important that new members of the ing. My transition from cancer to heart was not group do a project with others, as well. Mentoring motivated by the medical area, but by the opportu- is thus quite informal, and everyone knows they nity to do something different in medicine and the can ask questions of others in the group. We opportunity to find new statistical problems. also have a research seminar that meets regularly with presentations both by outsiders and mem- What was the most surprising or interesting bers of our group. This fosters an open learning Q thing that happened to you while you were environment and the sharing of research ideas. on the ASA Board of Directors? First, I was pleased to learn that the ASA works In your presidential address at the 2011 Joint A very smoothly, often because Ron Wasserstein Q Statistical Meetings in Miami Beach, you stat- and other senior staff will always pick up the slack ed, “A unique feature of being a statistician is that if someone else (like the ASA president) misses you may collaborate in any discipline whatsoever, something or cannot do it. Those who work for COMING UP and you may change fields of application as occa- the government have certain restrictions on their Please return to this column next month, sions arise.” You then emphasized that this results participation in financial matters and in lobby- when we will feature in statisticians being unique in seeking out col- ing—such as visits to members of Congress—and an interview with laborators and interdisciplinary opportunities, these were activities others had to undertake. I was 1997 ASA President which in turn requires us to develop skills that pleased and perhaps a bit surprised that the board Jon Kettenring. will enable our colleagues in other disciplines to worked so cooperatively and that we were never understand and appreciate our contributions. Do short of volunteers, no matter what the task. you feel that practitioners of our discipline are The prestige that comes with the office was a improving with respect to these skills? bit of a surprise, especially when people who never I’ve already mentioned that I switched from talked to me before were suddenly so kind! These A business to biostatistics and, within biostatis- things aside, the travel as ASA president and meet- tics, from cancer to heart, lung, and blood dis- ing statisticians from all over the world was really eases. That was quite deliberate, but sometimes interesting. My international travel was especially you initiate collaborations by serendipity. After gratifying, with trips to Korea, Israel, Ireland, and getting to NHLBI, I remember thinking that Sri Lanka. The hospitality at the professional meet- before I could talk to the clinicians, I had better ings I attended and by the faculty and students at learn the new vocabulary. I found myself unable these places was amazing! I also had the opportuni- to speak in sentences, never mind paragraphs. The ty to meet a number of eminent statisticians, such first challenge I set for myself was to say athero- as Sir David Cox and C.R. Rao. sclerosis without stuttering! Then I progressed to sentences, and then to paragraphs. It’s very hard Knowing what you know now, if you had it to initiate collaboration if you don’t know the Q to do all over again, would you? terminology that the potential collaborator uses Of course! It was a great experience. n every day. I just presented a paper at a journal club A

april 2016 amstat news 15 Statisticians as Leaders “Leaders are made, they are not born. They are made by hard effort, which is the price which all of us must pay to achieve any goal that is worthwhile.” – Vince Lombardi

Matthew J. Gurka and Vaneeta K. Grover

In recent years, the ASA has made attempts to ele- Speakers for 2016 JSM Course: Preparing Statisticians vate leadership in the statistics profession, spearheaded for Leadership by a two-day course at JSM. Preparing Statisticians for Leadership: How to See the Big Picture and Have Jon Kettenring, RISE director at Drew University and 1997 ASA president More Influence has been offered at the previous two Christy Chuang-Stein, NISS, former vice president at Pfizer, and ASA Fellow Joint Statistical Meetings and will be offered again at JSM 2016 in Chicago. Nathaniel Schenker, deputy director at NCHS and 2014 ASA president It features known statistician-leaders and provides guidance on personal leadership development—not just as leaders in our statistical groups, he notion of leadership has been studied but as leaders in larger organizations. and discussed in detail, with countless We were recent participants in this course and will books, journals, and websites devoted to be co-facilitating the upcoming course with Gary Tthe topic. Yet, leadership is often overlooked in Sullivan, senior director of global statistical sciences at the statistics profession. We as statisticians either Eli Lilly & Company. Here, we reflect on our experi- do not see ourselves as “natural born” leaders or ences and discuss the importance of leadership in our Preparing Statisticians for we simply do not have the desire to pursue leader- profession from the perspectives of both academia and Leadership: How ship opportunities. industry, respectively. to See the Big Picture and Have More Influence is a cContinuing education course that has been offered at the of biostatistics. I found myself the Beyond practical skills and previous two Joint founding chair of one of five new sharing of others’ experiences, Statistical Meetings, departments, charged with build- however, the most important and will be offered ing degree programs and recruiting focus of this course is the notion again at JSM 2016 in Chicago. faculty and students. This oppor- that we, as statisticians, should tunity came to me much earlier think about leadership opportu- Matthew Gurka in my career than expected, and nities in our larger organization, I quickly sought opportunities to not just within our statistics Professor and Associate learn about leadership. group(s). This had a profound Director, Institute The JSM leadership course impact on my career. I found for Child Health Policy, was a unique chance to focus on myself taking on leadership roles University of Florida leadership within the context of in the school as a whole, not just our statistics profession. What isolating myself in my depart- is leadership anyway? How does ment. I have welcomed the he term “accidental leader” is one lead those who report to opportunities to continue to do Tnot a novel one, but it cer- you, but also how does one “lead statistics, but also to help lead in tainly applies to me. Shortly after up” and “manage” the people to the larger environments where I I arrived at my previous institu- whom we answer? These are the am located, which has now taken tion (West Virginia University), a types of questions discussed in me to my new position at the school of public health was formed, detail during this course, and it University of Florida. along with a need for a department helped me tremendously.

16 amstat news april 2016 decisions” as statisticians, but Not ‘Just a Statistician’ also develop the skills required To summarize, this course had for negotiations, effective com- an incredible impact on two munication, and taking on the statistician’s career journeys. It leadership role. not only introduced them to the One of the strengths of the general notion of leadership and course is that it touches differ- all that goes with being a good Vaneeta Kaur ent learning styles—discussions, leader, but it also made them Grover hands-on exercises, and listening reflect on leadership opportuni- Manager, Statistician, to the experiences of what did ties for them as statisticians. The GlaxoSmithKline and did not work from leadership skills they inherently have as speakers. This had a big impact on statisticians—listening, patience, my career. It made me think about flexibility, integrity, the ability to my role, my responsibilities and communicate difficult concepts have played leadership roles in opportunities for future develop- to others—are also the charac- I different capacities since I was ment. As a result, I recently made teristics that make good leaders in high school. However, trans- a career change from the chemical in general. lating [those experiences] into industry, being the sole statistician We need to abandon the leader as a statistician was not that at Chemours, to a team of statisti- phrase “I’m just the statistician” straightforward. The JSM leader- cians at GlaxoSmithKline with a and actively think about oppor- ship course helped me understand greater opportunity for leadership. tunities in which our unique skill the importance of considering the I was able to leverage my learning sets can contribute to our larger bigger picture (strategy and busi- from the course during the inter- organization. We encourage you ness direction). It not only iden- view and hiring process and expect to consider leadership in your tified the ways in which we can to apply and grow other leadership own career trajectories, and we get a “seat at the table” for discus- concepts as I begin my new career hope to see you at the leadership sion and “influence the business at GlaxoSmithKline. course in Chicago! n

april 2016 amstat news 17 Significance Gets New Look Brian Tarran, Significance Editor

egular readers of Significance may have but the magazine content is now arranged into the already noticed things look a little dif- following three main sections: ferent. To coincide with the start of a • In Brief serves as a window to the world of newR volume, both the print and online magazine statistics, while offering a perspective on the underwent a major redesign recently. wider world as seen through the lens of sta- While many readers will subscribe to the tistics. Here, readers will find a mix of news, notion—put forward by Bill Gates in the mid- analysis, and new regular features, including 1990s—that “content is king,” the editorial staff “Statistically Speaking,” which seeks to chal- thought it was time for a bolder, more eye-catch- lenge published claims and misuses of statistics, ing design that would capture the attention of as and “Ask a Statistician,” where the public has a wide of an audience as possible. chance to ask questions of statistical experts. Significance was a unique proposition when it • In Detail offers a deeper dive into topi- launched more than a decade ago, and it remains cal issues. Citizen science, the human sex so. Its purpose is to entertain and inform, to ratio, and peer review are discussed in our demonstrate the importance of statistical think- MORE ONLINE February issue, while future issues will fea- If you are interested ing, and to explain the contributions statistics ture our regular mix of sports, politics, and in writing for makes to our understanding of key issues and business-related articles. Significance, visit the role it plays in society. Our content is meant http://bit.ly/2206Rsm. to be read by, and have relevance to, statisticians • In Practice is an entirely new section devoted and other data professionals, but our goal is to to explaining how statistical tools and meth- reach beyond these communities as well. Half of ods are applied, as well profiling statisticians that battle involves capturing people’s attention, and the work they do. A recent issue includes which—in a world awash with news and informa- an overview of the use of screening tools tion sources—is no easy feat. designed to catch illegal business cartels and From our masthead on down, we have taken on an interview with AIG’s chief data scientist. a new design, yet we continue to publish the same However you choose to read Significance— content subscribers have enjoyed reading for the whether online or in print—members of the edi- past 12 years. Online, it’s largely business as usual, torial staff hope you love what you find within. n

18 amstat news april 2016 Learn Survey Research Techniques in the 2016 Summer Institute ow in its 69th year, the Summer Institute in Survey Research Techniques offers courses Summer Institute Staff and workshops on many aspects of survey Jim Lepkowski, Director Nresearch. These courses and workshops are aimed at Jill Esau, Program Coordinator various skill levels and in time frames ranging from Patsy Gregory, Program Assistant one to eight weeks. Some courses require participants to have a Jodi Holbrook, Program Assistant quantitative background and/or familiarity with survey research methods, while others are aimed at The program draws on a renowned group of those who have little or no experience in the field instructors who teach in the program partly because but want to learn basic concepts. Topics include the of the enthusiasm of the students. Those who attend fundamental principles involved in drawing samples, the Summer Institute are highly motivated—gradu- designing questionnaires, data collection, and analy- ate students, professionals, government employees, sis of survey data. and other academics. Some instructors say teaching The program begins June 6, and courses meet in the Summer Institute is the highlight of their year. through July 29. Most courses are held two to three The positive attitude of most of the students ener- hours every weekday for one week or two weeks, and gizes the faculty, some of whom fondly remember many meet two or three days a week for four weeks their own experience as students in the program. or eight weeks. Courses offered in a compressed time For details, visit the Summer Institute website at frame can be demanding. Participants are assigned www.si.isr.umich.edu. You also can call (734) 764- readings, homework, written projects, and exams. 6595 or (877) 880-9389 for more information. n

SAVE ATE! DET2 THE D International Conference on Questionnaire Design, Development, Evaluation, and Testing

The 2016 International Conference on Questionnaire Design, Development, Evaluation, and Testing (QDET2) will take place November 9–13, 2016, at the Hyatt Regency in Miami, Florida.

Keynote Speakers Mario Callegaro, Google UK Gordon Willis, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health

QDET2 will be the rst international conference in more than a decade devoted to both the design of survey questionnaires and the methods used for their development, evaluation, and testing. It will provide a creative environment for researchers from across the world working in government, academia, and the private sector to share new solutions and fresh approaches to survey measurement, questionnaire design, and evaluation.

Details at ww2.amstat.org/meetings/qdet2

april 2016 amstat news 19 ASA Receives Grant to Establish Series of REUs Kumer Das, Monica Jackson, Sallie Keller, Donna LaLonde, Stephanie Shipp, Jessica Utts, and Mark Daniel Ward

he American Statistical Association below. This material is based upon work support- recently received a $380,340 National ed by the NSF under Grant No. DMS-1560332. Science Foundation (NSF) grant to establishT a series of undergraduate research expe- SPIRAL at Morgan State University, riences on campuses throughout the United coordinated by Monica Jackson States with the goal of invigorating the under- The goal of the Summer Program in Research and graduate research community in statistics. Learning (SPIRAL) is to provide a mentoring struc- The project is for 2016–2018, with three ture for under-represented minorities and women research experiences for undergraduates (REU) that promotes active engagement in mathematics and sites per year, for a total of nine REU sites. At statistics. With a supportive structure, the participants each site, four students will work in teams so will be encouraged to pursue and remain in mathe- that 36 students will participate during the life matics and/or statistics with the hopes that they diver- of the project. At each site, students will conduct sify the talent pool of fully trained mathematicians/ research for 10 weeks. They will investigate com- statisticians in academia, government, and industry. plex data sets from varied scientific and engineer- This year, the statistics project will be in the ing disciplines in which statistics plays a key role field of spatial statistics. Students will investigate for data analysis. methods for detecting clusters and global cluster- Recruitment will target (but not be limited ing patterns. In addition, they will analyze a data to) women, minorities, and persons with disabil- set with a spatial correlation structure. ities. Supported students must be U.S. citizens, The program is three-pronged: nationals, or permanent residents. One expected outcome is a greater number 1. Students will participate in research of students who are well prepared for graduate seminars in mathematics and statistics in study in statistics. Moreover, we expect these which research projects will be investigat- experiences will influence the students’ career ed in teams. Each team will write a final paper discussing their results and give an choices in the long run. Most of the projects are oral presentation. anticipated to have a significant interdisciplinary component. Thus, the students will see how 2. There will be an intensive four-week course statistics has an impact on fields such as engi- emphasizing mathematical proofs with neering, atmospheric science, health care, and all problem workshops and daily homework kinds of public policy. that consists of three modules—applied A goal of the ASA is to promote undergradu- mathematics, statistics, and basic founda- ate research experiences in statistics. Faculty who tions of mathematics—to assist the stu- want to respond to the NSF’s REU solicitation dents in their research projects. in August are welcome to seek feedback from our 3. One day a week will be devoted to profes- team of investigators; we are glad to help our col- sional development and career awareness, leagues who are starting (or continuing) their own enhancing the students’ view of the math- REU programs on their campuses. Moreover, the ematical and statistical world. ASA will coordinate three more REU sites in 2017 and three more in 2018. If you are interested in SPIRAL was created as an REU that would applying for such an REU site, please write to address the issues of human capital and materi- [email protected] for more information. ally strengthen the students’ foundation so they The three NSF-sponsored REU sites admin- return to their schools at a higher level than when istered thr ough the ASA this year are described they left. Students will be advanced first-year or

20 amstat news april 2016 The students will see how statistics has sophomore students who have completed calculus an impact on fields such as engineering, II, are pursuing a major in mathematics or statistics, and who have at least a 3.2 average. atmospheric science, health care, SDAL DSPG at Virginia Tech, coordinated by Sallie Keller and all kinds of public policy. and Stephanie Shipp The Social and Decision Analytics Laboratory (SDAL)—located in Arlington, Virginia—will host the Data Science for the Public Good (DSPG) REU program. SDAL is part of the Biocomplexity System and has been classified as one of the 29 pub- Institute of Virginia Tech and central to their lic universities nationally named a doctoral research “information biology” theme to study massively university by the Carnegie Foundation. This REU interacting systems from molecules to policy. site offers sophomores, juniors, and seniors the The SDAL research is at the interface of data opportunity to perform summer research in the analytics and understanding (modeling) the social fields of Big Data analytics, data dimension reduc- condition quantitatively at scale. In this con- tion, text mining, and image processing. text, the DSPG program will introduce students Students will be engaged in all stages of the Big to how communities are struggling to provide Data analysis cycle. Stat REU at LU is designed to health, safety, security, employment, and leisure spark and sustain excitement about undergraduate to their citizens in an environment of constricting research throughout the statistics discipline. The resources, increasing inequality, rapidly increas- students will further be trained in all aspects of ing technological innovations, and growing glob- research, from the ethics code to using library and al networks. This provides a rich and mutually online resources to delivering oral presentations to rewarding opportunity to leverage community using LaTeX to write statistical papers. n knowledge and massive data resources with statistics, social science, and data science research. The DSPG research projects planned for this summer are based on social science and statistical theory, research, and practice. The projects SPRING RESEARCH CONFERENCE are driven by real problems of interest to local municipalities that collect data as part of their Illinois Institute of Technology is hosting the 2016 Spring Re- daily operations. The goal is to liberate and search Conference, May 25-27, 2016, in Chicago, IL. Details, in- repurpose these natural flows of data to answer cluding updated conference program and submission informa- their questions. tion, are available at http://iit.edu/src2016. Students will become part of SDAL teams that are vertically integrated across researchers, SRC has a history of more than two decades, and continues to ex- from undergraduate students to senior faculty, plore many important topics, including statistical methodologies and horizontally integrated across multiple sta- and theories on design and analysis of experiments, uncertainty tistics and social science disciplines. Students quanti cation, computer experiments and statistical comput- will engage in all phases of the data cycle—data ing, applications of data science in business, industry and gov- source discovery, data acquisition, profiling, and ernment policy making, methods on quality improvement and evaluating the data for completeness, uniqueness, measurement system, etc. is year’s keynote speakers are Je and consistency and developing and conducting statistical analyses. Wu from Georgia Tech, Henry Wynn from London School of Economics, and Dennis Lin from Penn State. Join us in Chicago. Stat REU at Lamar University, coordinated by Kumer Das Stat REU at Lamar University (LU) is a 10-week research and academic experience. LU is one of eight institutions in the Texas State University

april 2016 amstat news 21 WHAT’S 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2050 NEXT? 2016 MATHEMATICS AWARENESS MONTH The Future Of Prediction

pril is Mathematics Awareness Month (MAM), and the Joint Policy Board for Mathematics (JPBM) has selected “The FutureA of Prediction” as the theme. Yogi Berra, paraphrasing Niels Bohr, said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Throughout Mathematics Awareness Month 2016, we will explore how mathematics and statistics are the future of prediction, providing insights and driving innovation. During the month, we will be asking the question, “What’s next?” and exploring how mathematicians and statisticians contribute to society. Effective prediction is essential to improving medicine; monitoring climate; providing sufficient, safe food supplies; and much more. Mathematics and statistics provide fundamental tools to see and shape the road ahead. The JPBM’s goal for MAM 2016 is to encourage students to study mathematics and statistics, explore career opportunities, and investigate how mathematics and statistics provide the tools to make accurate predictions possible.

22 amstat news april 2016 WHAT’S 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 2020 2050 NEXT?

2016 Mathematics Awareness The Future ofMonth Prediction

TELEPHONES Yogi Berra, paraphrasing Niels Bohr, said “It’s tough to make predictions, especially WATCHES COMPUTERS about the future.” Throughout Mathematics Awareness Month 2016, we will explore INTERNET OF THINGS how mathematics and statistics are the future of prediction, providing insights and “Want to make accurate predictions? Get lucky, get psychic, or get data! Good data + great statistical driving innovation. During the month, we will be asking the question, “What’s methods = great future for prediction!” next?” and exploring how mathematicians and statisticians contribute to the future. JESSICA UTTS, 2016 American Statistical Assocation President

JOIN THE DISCUSSION! So, visit the website and join the quest to help us predict future timeline entries. Share your thoughts by tweeting What does the “Future of Prediction” mean @mathaware or sharing on to you? www.mathaware.org

■ 2011 Nest Labs, Inc., architect of the ■ 1971 thoughtful home, ■ 1924 ■ 1917 A team of IBM engineers ■ 1994 introduces the John Harwood 156 YEARS invent the floppy disk. Reza Raji described the concept in Nest Learning Finnish inventor Eric Tigerstedt invents the first files a patent for a “pocket-size IEEE Spectrum as “[moving] small Thermostat. successful packets of data to a large set of folding telephone with a very self-winding ■ 1982 nodes, so as to integrate and thin carbon microphone.” watch system. ■ 1969 The concept of a network automate everything from home The quartz watch is of smart devices was appliances to entire factories.” ■ 1948 introduced. In place demonstrated with a Claude Shannon publishes of a balance wheel modified Coke machine ■ “A Mathematical Theory of ■ 2004 2011 (oscillates at 5 beats at Carnegie Mellon At the Consumer Electronics Show in Communication” in the Bell Motorola introduces the per second), it uses a University, becoming the January, more than 80 new tablets were System Technical Journal. Razr clamshell phone and sells quartz crystal first Internet-connected announced to compete with the iPad. resonator that appliance. more than 50 million by 2006. vibrates at 8,192 Hz, powered by an oscillator circuit. 1875 ■ 2020 1900 Theo Priestley, technology strategist 1915 and Forbes contributor, predicts 1930 there will be 50 billion connected 1945 “things” by 2020. 1960 ■ 1876 1975 Alexander Graham Bell is granted 1990 U.S. Patent 174,465 for his 2005 "Improvement in Telegraphy.” 2020 WHAT’S NEXT? ■ 1963 2050 ■ 1930s American Telephone 2065 The rotary dial telephone & Telegraph Company ■ 2007 PARTICIPATE ONLINE becomes common. (AT&T) introduces the ■ 1985 ■ Apple’s Steve push-button telephone. 1974 Microsoft ■ 2015 TO GET THE MOST ■ 1943-1944 Personal Jobs introduces introduces the iPhone. Apple releases Two University of Pennsylvania computers the Windows the Apple Watch. OUT OF MATHEMATICS professors create the Electronic begin to hit operating Numerical Integrator and Calculator the consumer AWARENESS MONTH system. ■ 1999 (ENIAC)—the “grandfather” of market. The term “Internet digital computers. The machine filled MORE ONLINE “The industrial revolution has become the of Things” was a 20-foot by 40-foot room. Visit the website to: information revolution, with mathematics and coined by British ■ 1984 entrepreneur ■ Explore the mathematics and Casio creates the Databank, a Kevin Ashton. statistics as the power tools of a new ■ 2014 statistics that power prediction calculator watch that can store Wearable tech goes big. Fitness Visit www. economy. Phones now predict when you will appointments, names, addresses, trackers (such as the FitBit Flex, ■ Participate in weekly challenges get home. Search engines predict the spread and phone numbers. shown) and smart watches gain of disease. Numerical models predict the mainstream popularity. ■ Ask an expert a question mathaware.org to: weather. Math makes new inventions possible.” ■ 1994 ■ Submit your “Future Timex introduces the Datalink—a watch that of Prediction” video 2016 Mathematical Association of America President can wirelessly transfer • Explore the FRANCIS SU, data to a PC. SPONSORED BY THE JOINT POLICY BOARD FOR MATHEMATICS: AMERICAN MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY • AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION • MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA • SOCIETY FOR INDUSTRIALwww.mathaware.org AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS mathematics and statistics that power prediction • Participate in In addition to a MAM poster, the website at weekly challenges www.mathaware.org hosts a number of resources for this year’s observance—including articles and Mathematics Awareness Month, held each year in • Ask an expert a essays—to show how mathematics and statistics April and sponsored by the JPBM, was established question make prediction possible and highlight the exciting by presidential proclamation in 1986 to increase work mathematicians and statisticians are doing. public understanding of and appreciation for math- • Submit your Activities for Mathematics Awareness Month ematics. The JPBM is a collaborative effort of the “Future of will be organized on local, state, and regional American Mathematical Society, American Statistical Prediction” video levels by schools, college and university depart- Association, Mathematical Association of America, ments, student groups, and other interest groups. and Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Individuals and organizations may contact Donna Visit www.mathaware.org for resources and LaLonde at [email protected] for more infor- information. Like us on Facebook and follow us mation about participating. on Twitter at @MathAware. n

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april 2016 amstat news 23 FH17 Requests for NIH, NSF, Federal Statistical Agencies Largely Positive Difficult Funding Environment Makes Increases Unlikely Steve Pierson, ASA Director of Science Policy

resident Obama’s requested budget for Fiscal well as potential projects to collaborate with industry Year 2017 (FY17)—his final budget request— to test novel devices in the human brain, new ways maintains his record of proposing generally to address Big Data from the brain, and developing Phealthy increases for the National Institutes of Health devices for mapping and tuning brain circuitry.” (NIH), National Science Foundation (NSF), and For Big Data to Knowledge (BD2K), the request many federal statistical agencies. Realizing increases proposes an increase of $6.2 million (9.8%) to $69.1 of any amount will be challenging, however, because million. The FY15 level for BD2K was $40.8 mil- the overall federal budget for discretionary funding lion. NIH documentation states that, in FY17, increased only 0.3% (from $1.067 trillion to $1.070 “The program will support development of Big trillion). Moreover, the requested increases for NIH Data software, reference data sets, and data analy- and NSF—2.6% and 6.7%, respectively—largely sis and dissemination methods. The program will rely on a new mandatory funding mechanism unlike- work to make Big Data software innovations avail- ly to be adopted by this Congress. Nonetheless, the able and user-friendly. It will also support innova- ASA urges its members and the broader statistical tive approaches to advance biomedical science using community to contact their senators and representa- crowdsourcing and interactive digital media.” It also tive and ask them to support increases for the agen- reports, the program “now includes 11 Centers of cies they most support. Excellence for Big Data Computing as well as NIH- funded scientists across the country working to NIH, NSF, and AHRQ develop new software, methods, and other solutions The FY17 request for NIH is $33.1 billion, an to solve the puzzles presented by collecting, analyz- increase of 2.6 % over the FY16 level, but $1.8 bil- ing, and sharing large biomedical data sets.” lion is from the proposed new mandatory financ- For the National Cancer Moonshot, NIH docu- ing. Without the mandatory financing, the FY17 ments state the elements of the FY 2017 Cancer request is only $31.3 billion, a decrease of $1 mil- Research Initiative include the following: lion from the FY16 level. • Developing new techniques to detect The increase includes $680 million for Vice cancer earlier President Biden’s cancer moonshot, announced in President Obama’s State of the Union Address. The • Developing new vaccines to prevent cancer- requested budget also proposes $100 million more causing infections and vaccines to target for the president’s Precision Medicine Initiative genetic changes that can cause cancer (PMI)—to raise the total budget to $300 million in • Expanding recent successes in cancer immuno- FY17—and another $45 million for the president’s therapy to a much wider range of tumor types BRAIN Initiative, which would bring its total funding to $195 million. • Expanding research on mutations that drive According to NIH documents, the $100 mil- cancer and determine how cells respond to lion increase for PMI would be used to continue cancer the ramp-up of the national research cohort toward • Accelerating progress on detecting and 1 million plus participants and activities to include treating childhood cancers informatics, building a biorepository, genome analy- • Fostering enhanced data sharing to speed sis, and core phenotyping. The additional funding discovery and verify treatment response for the BRAIN initiative in FY17 would “continue to support basic neuroscience research, human neu- • Funding other promising opportunities in roscience, neuroimaging, and training initiatives, as cancer discovery, prevention, and treatment

24 amstat news april 2016 $400 million of the $500 million (6.7%) Smart Systems (CEMMSS); Cyberinfrastructure requested increase for the NSF is from the new Framework for 21st Century Science, mandatory funding scheme. Without the manda- Engineering, and Education (CIF21); Innovation tory funding source, the increase is only 1.3%. Corps (I-Corps™); Research at the Interface The FY17 request continues the same four cross- of Biological, Mathematical, and Physical foundation investments as in the FY16 request: Sciences (BioMaPS); Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES); and Secure • Understanding the Brain ($142 million) and Trustworthy Cyberspace (SaTC). The NSF • Risk and Resilience ($43 million) Research Traineeship (NRT) program was omit- • Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy, ted from this list in FY17. and Water Systems ($62 million) The FY17 budget request for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) is for • Inclusion across the Nation of $364 million. This is an increase of 9% of over Communities of Learners of FY16, but it reverses the cut from FY15 to FY16 to Underrepresented Discoverers in restore the agency to it FY15 level. In addition to Engineering and Science ($16 million) the $364 million, the AHRQ request also includes The request also maintains support for $106 million from the Patient-Centered Outcomes NSF-wide priorities as in FY16: Clean Energy; Research Trust Fund, an increase from the $94.5 Cyber-enabled Materials, Manufacturing, and million it received from the fund in FY15.

Table 1—FY17 Budget Requests for NIH, NSF, AHRQ, and the 13 Primary Federal Statistical Agencies

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Change Request from FY16 Research Agency (amounts in millions of dollars) NIH 30623 29300 30070 30311 32311 33116 2.6% NSF 6884 6884 7172 7344 7463 7964 6.7% AHRQ 381 371 371 364 334 364 9.0%

Statistical Agency (amounts in millions of dollars) BEA 92.2 89.8 95.0 96.3 105.1 110.7 5.3% BJS 41.3 41.3 45.0 41.0 41.0 58.0 41.5% BLS 609.0 577.2 592.2 592.2 609.0 641.0 5.3% BTS 25.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 0.0% Census 942.4 841.7 945.0 1088.0 1370.0 1660.0 21.2% EIA 105.0 99.5 117.0 117.0 122.0 131.0 7.4% ERS 85.4 79.1 85.8 85.4 85.4 91.0 6.6% NASS 167.8 175.2 170.4 172.4 168.4 177.0 5.1% NCES 247.0 226.0 235.0 232.1 261.0 274.0 5.0% NCHS 154.1 154.1 155.4 155.4 160.4 160.4 0.0% NCSES 43.3 41.6 47.1 58.3 58.5 60.0 2.6% ORES 29.0 27.5 26.9 29.0 25.9 27.0 4.2% SOI 38.7 33.1 35.0 36.6 37.9 38.0 0.3% *ERS, NASS, and NCHS went through accounting changes last year and so the FY15, FY16, and FY17 levels aren’t comparable with the FY13 and FY14 levels.

april 2016 amstat news 25 Federal Statistical Agencies characteristics of new farmers and ranchers, and The proposed budgets for the federal statisti- $626,000 to conduct research on conservation prac- cal agencies range from flat—for the Bureau of tice adoption and drought mitigation by American Transportation Statistics (BTS), National Center farmers and ranchers in drought-prone regions. for Health Statistics (NCHS), and Internal Revenue The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sees a $32 Service Statistics of Income Division (SOI)—to million requested increase (6.8%), which would increases of 21% for the U.S. Census Bureau, help offset its approximately 12% cut in purchas- which is ramping up for the 2020 decennial census, ing power since FY10 due to inflation. It also seeks and 37% for the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). $1.6 million to add an annual supplement to the The requested increase for the Bureau of Economic Current Population Survey, $3 million for the first Analysis (BEA) is 5.3% on paper, but it’s a larger year of activities for a survey of employer-provid- increase for its programs because its FY16 budget ed training, and $2.5 million for the Consumer includes funds of approximately $5 million for its relo- Expenditure Survey development of a supplemental cation to the Census Bureau headquarters in Suitland, statistical poverty measure. Maryland. Their requested increase includes $2.6 mil- The 5% requested increase for the National lion for inflationary adjustments salaries, non-labor Center for Education Statistics (NCES), according activities, and other personnel expenses and proposes to its budget documents, would support “the collec- a Regional Economic Dashboard ($3 million) and the tion, analysis, and dissemination of education-relat- Accelerating and Improving the Quality of Economic ed statistics in response to both legislative require- Indicators (AIQEI) initiative ($1.9 million). ments.” It also includes $7.1 million to re-initiate the The $131 million (7.4% increase) proposed for Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Birth Cohort, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is to $2.5 million for a study on student loan repay- continue its current data collection, analysis, and ment and defaults, and $2.8 million to expand the dissemination activities and expand its work in four Teaching and Learning International Survey. areas, including achieving more regional detail on The National Center for Science and petroleum data and analysis; enhancing energy effi- Engineering Statistics’ (NCSES) requested increase ciency data of commercial buildings; gaining a bet- is for the development of enhanced data access ter understanding of domestic energy markets in the tools, techniques, and visualizations; new data col- context of the world energy system; and collecting lection techniques building on administrative data and analyzing data on personal vehicle transporta- and other Big Data sources; and questionnaire rede- tion to develop projections of motor fuel demand. sign and survey improvements to support improved The substantial requested increase for the data on measures of innovation and educational Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)—which largely and career pathways for scientists and engineers. repeats the (unsuccessful) FY16 request—includes The flat funding request for SOI will likely $6 million to provide subnational estimates from mean their freeze on external hires—in place for the National Crime Victimization Survey. the last several years—will continue into FY17 and The National Agricultural Statistics Service similarly for the freeze on almost all promotions. (NASS) would see an $8.6 million (5.1%) increase, The Social Security Administration Office of including $2 million to add questions to existing Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES) has a surveys (e.g., for cattle, hogs, and poultry); $3 mil- requested increase of $1.1 million, or 4.2%. lion to survey beginning farmers at a regional level The 21% requested increase for the U.S. Census of detail; $1 million to study modern farm struc- Bureau has an additional $179 million for the 2020 ture; and $1 million to enhance current satellite- Census, including $20 million for the American based agricultural monitoring to provide crop con- Community Survey to reduce program risk and dition, soil moisture, crop progress, and crop yields. respondent burden. It also includes $5 million The Economic Research Service (ERS) has a 6% for the 2017 Economic Census and Census of requested increase to $91 million, which, if imple- Governments, $3.3 million for the AIQEI initiative, mented, would help offset cuts—due to inflation and $8.4 million to modernize economic statistics. and sequestration cuts—to its budget since FY10. It Details about the FY17 federal statistical agency also proposes $4 million to update the 2012 National requests can be found at http://bit.ly/1RQl85Y, along Household Food Purchase and Acquisition Survey, with links to the analyses from the Consortium of $500,000 to examine differences in demographic Social Science Associations. n

26 amstat news april 2016 JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN SPORTS HIGHLIGHTS Fantasy Football, Basketball, Tennis, Designing Tournaments Featured in March Issue Mark E. Glickman, JQAS Editor-in-Chief

he March 2016 issue (volume 12, issue 1) of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS) consists of four articles with appli- Tcations to fantasy football, basketball, tennis, and the optimal design of tournaments. “An Analytical Approach for Fantasy Football Draft and Lineup Management” by Adrian Becker and Xu Andy Sun is the Editor’s Choice article for this issue and available for free download for 12 months. The article develops and investigates a methodology for selecting lineups in fantasy NFL Thinkstock photo football that is optimized for winning an entire The March issue of JQAS features an article asking: “Is NFL season. The approach uses historical data to There a Pythagorean Theorem for Winning in Tennis?” construct player and team performance predictions, and then builds a mixed integer programming model heteroscedasticity. The results of the modeling that uses the predictions to guide draft selections and approach are demonstrated on NBA game out- weekly lineup management. The approach is dem- comes from 2006–2014 and compared to the bet- onstrated on lineup picks for several NFL seasons. ting market’s point spreads. “Bayesian Optimal Design of Fixed Knockout Finally, “Is There a Pythagorean Theorem for Tournament Brackets” by Jonathan Hennessy and Winning in Tennis?” by Stephanie Kovalchik Mark Glickman extends published work by the sec- investigates the appropriateness of Bill James’ ond author to construct knockout tournaments that “Pythagorean theorem” in baseball for measur- globally optimize a specified utility function given ing tennis win frequency. The paper investigates partial information about players’ strengths. The the application of the Pythagorean theorem to 27 paper discusses Monte Carlo estimates of the expect- candidate measures of tennis performance based on ed utility and demonstrates a simulated annealing results from competitive tennis from 2004–2014. algorithm to optimize the expected utility over the The paper also investigates the Pythagorean theorem space of candidate tournaments. The paper focuses applied simultaneously to all measures by developing mainly on designing tournaments that maximize the a logit-linear regression model in which the trans- probability the best player wins the tournament, but formed candidate measures are the predictors. The also considers other utility functions such as maxi- author finds that converted break points has the best mizing the probability the best two players meet in relationship with future winning frequency within the final round of the tournament. the Pythagorean theorem framework. “Modeling and Forecasting the Outcomes of These articles are available to all members of NBA Basketball Games” by Hans Manner devel- the Section on Statistics in Sports and on a sub- ops a state-space model for predicting NBA bas- scription basis from the JQAS website, which ketball outcomes. The model accounts for home- can be found at www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas. court advantage and instances when teams play Also, prospective authors can find the journal’s back-to-back games. The framework includes a aims and scope, as well as manuscript submission model component that addresses team-specific instructions, on the website. n

april 2016 amstat news 27 Review and Edit, Writing Workshops Planned for JSM

wo workshops are planned for JSM 2016 experienced researchers who are non-native English in Chicago that are designed for new speakers. Participants are expected to prepare an researchers to develop capabilities for agreed-upon revision of a (limited) critiqued por- Tresearch publication. The Writing Workshop for tion of the draft manuscript to return to the men- New Researchers continues the series of work- tor for further comment. The working lunch on shops in which each participant receives individu- Wednesday will focus on further discussion and al mentoring by an experienced journal editor. feedback, as well as allow time for follow-up dis- Additionally, the new Review and Edit Workshop cussions between participants and their mentors. will be offered by a team of executive editors of The writing workshop is designed for research- leading journals to junior researchers as they take ers with a PhD in statistics or biostatistics awarded up new responsibilities for reviewing technical or anticipated during 2010–2016. Attendance articles and joining the ranks of associate editors. will be limited, with applicants within 0–3 years post-PhD receiving preference. Writing Workshop for New Researchers Applications (www.surveymonkey.com/s/writing The goal of the Writing Workshop for New workshopjr) are due June 1; successful applicants Researchers is to provide instruction for writing will be notified by June 30. Applications received journal articles and grant proposals. Participants after June 1 will be considered if space is avail- will be required to provide a recent sample of their able. There is no fee for participation, but partici- writing, which will be reviewed by a senior men- pants must agree to attend the full workshop with tor. The sample can be a current draft of an article exceptions permitted for a conflict with a partici- to be submitted for publication or an early ver- pant’s scheduled presentation. Partial travel sup- sion of a grant proposal. Submission of the writ- port is anticipated for participants without other ing sample is required at registration, although funding. If space is available, researchers at insti- an updated draft may be submitted in July to the tutions outside the United States will be admitted. mentor. (Participants benefit maximally by choos- Registration at JSM is required. ing an early draft written solely or primarily by the participant and not under review or edited by a Review and Edit Workshop senior coauthor or mentor.) Reviewing technical articles for publication and Mentors will be former journal editors and determining which of these are published in program officers. They will critique the submit- statistical journals is the lifeblood for statistical ted material and provide individual feedback. research. Quality in reviewing and selection of Participants will be expected to initiate a revi- manuscripts for publication depends upon skilled sion in response with additional feedback from reviewers and editors. With many new journals their mentors. both online and in print, both reviewers and edi- The workshop consists of three sessions and tors are taking on these responsibilities without a a final working lunch. On Sunday, the morning great deal of personal experience. The goal of this session will be a tutorial on effective writing tech- workshop is to assist new reviewers and editors by niques for technical articles. The afternoon session drawing on the experience of senior editors. will take up specific issues such as requirements of Speakers and mentors will be experienced specific journals, ethics, dealing with reviews, and senior editors. The workshop will be a half day, revisions. It will conclude with individual conver- beginning with a working breakfast. The program sations between mentors and participants. will be in two sessions, the first on reviewing and The Wednesday morning session will focus on the second on editing. A one-hour tutorial will be specific issues for participants whose native lan- followed by separation into three or four round- guage is not English, with commentary by panels of tables, each led by one of the editor-mentors.

28 amstat news april 2016 Thinkstock photo The Review and Edit Workshop is designed for researchers who publish in the statistical literature and hold a doctorate awarded since 2008 in statistics, biostatistics, or a related field.

The first session tutorial will address such ques- reviews they have written or received. Participants tions as: What constitutes an “excellent” review? will be asked to prepare materials in advance. What does an editor need to know from a review- The Review and Edit Workshop is designed for er? What does the author need to know from the researchers who publish in the statistical literature reviewer? Which judgments should be made by and hold a doctorate awarded since 2008 in sta- reviewers and which by editors? tistics, biostatistics, or related field. Attendance at The second session tutorial will focus on ques- the Review and Edit Workshop will be limited, and tions like: What are the paradigms for operating a applicants within 3–7 years post-PhD will receive journal? What really is the job of an associate editor preference. Applications (www.surveymonkey.com/s/ (depending on the journal’s editorial model)? How writingworkshopjr) are due by June 1; successful should judgments be reached about finding review- applicants will be notified by June 30. Applications ers? How should the reviews received be evaluated? received after June 1 will be considered if space is What about complaints (legitimate or not)? How is available. There is no fee for participation. Partial the role of an (executive) editor different? travel support is anticipated for participants with- Roundtables will be small groups organized out other funding. If space is available, research- around their areas/types of research. Participants ers at institutions outside the United States will be will discuss real examples, synthesized examples, and admitted. Registration at JSM is required. n

april 2016 amstat news 29 columns

STATtr@k Internships Make Such a Difference: The Experiences of Four Students

Compiled by the Statistical Partnerships Among Academe, Industry, and Government Committee

RUOBIN GONG, PhD Student, time. Three U.S. public school districts part- Harvard University nered with us and provided historical student While an undergraduate at the University of enrollment, academic performance, and disci- Toronto, I was fascinated with cognitive behav- pline data, with which we built at-risk student ioral research. The training I received was typi- early prediction models. Throughout the fellow- cal of an experimental psychologist, covering ship, my teammates and I operated on a high everything from running experimental subjects level of “vertical” autonomy, fulfilling tasks to writing fMRI processing scripts. Statistics as a from directly communicating with partners to discipline was first introduced to me that way. I calibrate inferential goals and resolve data gaps didn’t make out the Cohen’s Ds, Newman-Keuls, to constructing our own query database to pre- or Latin squares at the time, but nevertheless grew senting and documenting our modeling work to a secret appreciation for the principled inferen- both internal and external audiences. tial reasoning statistics has to offer. In the fall of Real-life data is incredibly messy—they look 2013, I took a leap of faith and began to pursue a nothing like that design matrix X we see in a PhD in statistics at Harvard University. regression course. Moreover, whenever things Life as a PhD student is undeniably rewarding, can go wrong, they will go wrong. Throughout despite not being the easiest. Pressure, self-doubt, the past summer, I have been tremendously and sleep deprivation cannot offset the excitement grateful for my teammates and peer fellows, when an algorithm finally works, a model fits, or for they gifted me with not only subject-matter a derivation checks out. But as a scientist-turned knowledge for writing Python functions to fix- statistician, something still feet restless: the desire ing Git catastrophes, but also the art and prac- to be in sync with real-life data problems. It takes tice of working in teams toward a mutual goal. far more than statistical proficiency to carry out I treasure the experience for all it has taught me a project from end to end; an overseeing vision and have no doubt it will prove crucial to forg- can only be gained through hands-on experience. ing successful collaborations with statisticians, So when I came across Data Science for Social scientists, and practitioners alike. Good (DSSG) at the beginning of 2015, I immediately knew I needed to take part in it. After a TYLER G. KINZY and JAMES P. short application and a Skype chat with the direc- NORMINGTON, Master’s Students, tor, Rayid Ghani, my summer was set and I was University of Minnesota Chicago bound. From James: Tyler and I are both pursuing mas- DSSG is The University of Chicago summer ter’s degrees in biostatistics at the University of fellowship that works with government and non- Minnesota. Our department regularly notifies us profit organizations to use data-driven methods about internship and employment opportunities, to address their pressing concerns, employing data and the university has a job posting site that is that are readily available but cannot be put to effi- regularly updated with both internal and external cient use. Last summer, it created an unprecedent- positions. We both started applying to a handful ed learning experience for an amazing cohort of of applications, finally securing interviews and 42 fellows, thanks to the dynamic nature between offers with the Allina Health Division of Applied the projects and people. Representing diverse aca- Research (DAR). demic backgrounds, we the fellows worked on 12 All my previous work experience was in soft- projects for social good, tapping into every facet ware, teaching, or running a register. I entered of the phrase’s meaning. the graduate program with no research experi- My project focused on identifying high- ence and felt lucky to find a position at DAR, school students at risk of not graduating on a dynamic group of scientists, researchers, and

30 amstat news april 2016 columns

statisticians who work alongside medical staff to Steven Willke, Undergraduate improve the quality of care delivered locally and Student, The Ohio State University nationwide. It’s exciting to say the least. I am a senior at The Ohio State University study- I mostly work with emergency services data, ing economics and actuarial science. I came to which is concerned with pre-hospital care—care Ohio State with aspirations to become an engi- at the scene of incident, ambulance procedures, neer. However, I realized after a year that only the and dispatcher and paramedic performance. I quantitative challenge of engineering intrigued primarily work in Stata, writing scripts to read in me, so I switched my academic focus to math- raw data, preparing it for analysis, and then con- ematics and economics. Very quickly, I knew I ducting that analysis. Analyses I have conducted made the right decision. vary in complexity, but the usual suspects include I became even more confident after my experi- Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, Chi-square tests, trend ence working with Kelly Zou at Pfizer as a statis- tests, and inter-rater reliability tests. Examples of tical intern the summer after my sophomore year. current studies are evaluating cardiac arrest pro- In the classroom, I learned important mathematical tocol adherence based on the American Heart concepts, but I actually got to use things I learned Association’s 2015 guidelines, assessing paramed- with Kelly. I also was exposed to concepts I would ics’ well-being and job burnout via survey, and not be taught until later in my collegiate career. For assessing the effectiveness of sepsis education. I example, I was lucky enough to work on a project in also have taken the reigns in claiming lead ana- which we researched the differences between fixed lyst roles, writing methods sections, and preparing effects modeling and random effects modeling, institutional review board packages. which I didn’t learn in a more traditional sense until Working at Allina has given me the research my junior year in an econometrics class. This proj- backbone necessary to enter either academia or ect was eventually published in Applied Statistics in industry, a backbone I severely lacked when begin- Biomedicine and Clinical Trials Design. Working ning my graduate studies. As I reflect on my Allina on that project, along with the rest of my internship experience, I am grateful for the opportunity to experience, reassured me that I wanted to do some have an effect on meaningful research, the lessons sort of quantitative investigation work for a living. I have learned, and the friendships I have made. I would encourage fellow undergraduate students interested in statistics or another quantitative field to From Tyler: I differed from James in that I worked seek out and take advantage of opportunities like the for five years in health care before enrolling as a one I had. I remember feeling nervous about working master’s student. My previous work was in behav- with people with PhDs and master’s degrees while I ioral research, so the more clinical setting at Allina was still an undergraduate student, but the people I was a welcome change. worked with were very willing to teach me and give I was immediately impressed with DAR’s diver- me work that interested and challenged me. Even sity in research areas and the autonomy afforded though I commuted to work 90 minutes every day, to investigators and interns alike. The research I always looked forward to going into work. I really is unique in its almost immediate application to enjoyed the atmosphere of intelligent people working the health system—something I feel is sometimes together using various statistical methods to assess the lacking in more academic environments. safety and effectiveness of a drug, to improve clinical I mainly work on research that describes and and outcomes research study practices, and to assure aims to improve health care delivery in critical methodologic quality in other processes at Pfizer. care units. Studies have included identifying risk I was extremely lucky to have accomplished indi- factors for respiratory failure in elective orthope- viduals like Kelly to talk with about various fields dic surgeries and predicting cerebral performance and the options available to people with statistics after receiving therapeutic hypothermia. Analyses expertise. I told her about my interest in an actuarial vary from the purely descriptive to using general- career and she gave me advice about how to be suc- ized estimating equations models to account for cessful in the field. Although there is still a long road time-clustered to building predictive models using ahead of me to become a fully credentialed actu- penalized regression. ary, I am happy with the position I am in at this The internship has been a great experience, stage of my studies. I’m about to have my second allowing me significant sway on study design, internship for a major insurance company and my analysis, and dissemination of findings. And, of experience as a statistical intern has not only set me course, Allina has introduced me to many amaz- apart in obtaining those internships, but also has ing individuals who I look forward to collaborat- almost surely improved the likelihood of achieving ing with in the future. my actuarial ambitions. n

april 2016 amstat news 31 columns

SCIENCE POLICY Leadership Is Listening: Data-Driven Decision-Making at NIGMS Jake Basson This month’s science policy guest columnist, Jake Basson, writes about his data-driven decision- making work at the National Institute for General Medical Sciences. His effort and that of his colleagues exemplify the growing effort within the federal government to better integrate evidence and rigorous evaluation in budget, management, and policy decisions. Future columns will spot- light similar work in other agencies. Basson is doing this work as a AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, an opportunity more statisticians should take advantage of. —Steve Pierson, ASA Director of Science Policy became interested in science policy and moti- the institute’s leadership, reporting on such matters vated to improve data literacy after completing as trends in grant applications, funding decisions, my PhD in biostatistics and witnessing polar- research outcomes such as publications and citations, Jake Basson was izingI discussions about such challenging issues as and other data relevant to the efficient and effective born in Milwaukee, climate change and the alleged link between vac- administration of programs and policies. Wisconsin, and earned his BS cines and autism. I chose to pursue a Science and Most exciting to me, I’ve observed that OPAE in biology from Technology Policy Fellowship with the American analyses are not rejected, ignored, or shelved. Instead, the University of Association for the Advancement of Science NIGMS leadership actively embraces the role of ana- Wisconsin-Madison. through their Big Data and Analytics program. I lytics as a crucial part of a data-driven, accountable His graduate work took a position at the National Institute for General decision-making process. As a result, data generated at Washington Medical Sciences (NIGMS) in a newly revamped through the OPAE’s analyses are consistently used University in Saint Louis was in analytics office that is leading the charge toward to inform the forward momentum of the institute statistical genetics data-driven decision-making at NIGMS. What I’ve against an ever-changing landscape of science, tech- of complex traits found here is encouraging to any statistician hoping nology, fiscal responsibility, and legislative policy. with a focus for a more active role for analytics in policy formu- on gene-gene lation, implementation, and evaluation. Informing Policy interactions in Situated within the office of the NIGMS direc- One example of how the OPAE’s data analyses con- blood pressure. tor, the Office of Program Planning, Analysis, and tribute to decision-making can be observed in its Evaluation (OPAE) grew rapidly in 2015, going recent analyses of laboratory productivity as a func- from two to 10 full-time employees. This growth tion of the amount of funding received from both in both personnel and resources—achieved NIGMS and NIH sources. through a combination of new hires and reassign- Building on a prior analysis that focused on ments of existing positions—reflects the NIGMS outcomes from a single year, this work looked at commitment to ensuring a heightened level of scientific funding versus productivity over a three- stewardship and maximal return on investment year period and used a broader set of metrics than for tax-payer dollars. were considered in earlier analyses. OPAE’s analy- To that end, the OPAE focuses on performing sis illustrated the law of diminishing returns, with data-driven analyses and evaluations of both NIGMS funding beyond a certain threshold not producing research programs and funding mechanisms and on proportional gains in productivity as measured by communicating the results of such analyses to key publication and citation rates. decision-makers within the institute and National NIGMS director, Jon Lorsch, presented these Institutes of Health (NIH). Its team of multidisci- data to the institute’s advisory council in September plinary data scientists puts the power of data analyt- of 2015. In particular, the data provided firm foot- ics and statistics to use in their advisory capacity to ing to defend the institute’s “750k policy” that

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stipulates grants to investigators who would have Centers for Systems Biology program, which has more than $750,000 in funding from all sources provided more than $350 million since 2003 undergo an additional round of review by the insti- to promote development of multidisciplinary tute’s advisory council. research, training, and outreach focused on sys- Some stakeholders mistakenly perceive the policy tems-level biomedicine. as a hard cap on funding, while others focus on spe- Bearing in mind the collaborative nature of cific counter-examples of highly funded investiga- science, the OPAE also recently used geographic tors who are also perceived to be highly productive. analysis of collaboration networks to evaluate the Having concrete data has been key to NIGMS’ efficiency and synergy of program project grants decision to continue implementation of its 750k and the contributions of team-based versus individ- policy. In addition, these results suggest funding ual science. Further, the OPAE used yet a different more labs at lower levels may achieve better returns approach to determine whether the R37 MERIT than funding fewer labs at higher levels, provid- awards are achieving their intended goal. ing support for NIGMS’ decision to diversify The R37 MERIT award is a modification of the rather than concentrate its portfolio. This insight traditional R01 research project grants and is award- informed the design of the recently launched ed to highly meritorious investigators to provide an Maximizing Investigator’s Research Award funding extended period of stable funding to allow them to mechanism, which was developed in part to con- take more research risks. Using medical subject head- tribute to the breadth and diversity of the institute’s ings (MeSH terms), the OPAE measured changes research portfolio while maximizing scientific cre- in scientific focus over the life of these awards to ativity and flexibility. assess the extent to which R37-funded investigators Not only has this productivity analysis played branched out into more diverse areas of research rela- an important role in informing policy formula- tive to their R01-funded counterparts. tion within NIGMS, but the institute’s leadership is making a concerted effort to communicate and Supporting a Data-Driven Institute disseminate the findings more broadly. For instance, As the above examples illustrate, the OPAE con- these results were shared with the directors of other tributes to ensuring that robust, reproducible, and NIH institutes and centers to help inform consider- meaningful data inform the institute’s pursuit of ations related to the effective funding of investiga- its mission. Currently, the office is in the process tors in challenging or unpredictable fiscal times. A of creating a performance monitoring dashboarding short video also was created by Lorsch for the biol- system so program officers and other staff can read- ogy outreach site iBiology, presenting these data and ily access data related to the institute’s performance his thoughts about their implications to the scien- in the pursuit of the goals listed in its strategic plan. tific community at large and the general public. You Development of this dashboarding capability is part can view this video at http://bit.ly/1USXVmH. of a broader effort to expand the capacity of the institute to access, analyze, communicate, and use Evaluating Programs different data types. As I noted above, the institute’s primary role is Staff members within the OPAE are also working to maximize the potential for important scientific to build relationships with other NIH institutes and discoveries while ensuring a return on taxpayers’ centers and with institutions outside the NIH to investments in the areas of fundamental biomedi- access a wider range of data and broaden portfolio cal research and training. To this end, OPAE is analysis techniques. Representatives from the OPAE developing metrics and techniques for evaluat- are also participating in a new NIGMS initiative to ing the institute’s research programs and funding assess the ways in which collaborative science is cur- mechanisms. In the last year, OPAE conducted rently supported and whether development of alter- several focused data analyses to support outcomes native mechanisms is warranted. evaluations of two major NIGMS programs: Collectively, these examples illustrate that the the Biotechnology Research Resources program, curation, analysis, visualization, and communica- which funds numerous centers to develop novel tion of robust, reproducible, and meaningful data technologies and provide research resources across play an important role in many of the NIGMS’ a wide range of scientific fields, and the National functions. Statisticians rejoice! n

april 2016 amstat news 33 meetings

Learning on the Left Coast: CSP Has Another Successful Year

Jim Rutherford, CSP Steering Committee Chair he Conference on Statistical Practice (CSP) T expanded its boundaries by visiting the West Coast this year. The ASA’s 5th meeting for statistical practitioners was the biggest yet, with more than 550 attendees at the Westin San Diego February 18–20.

ASA President Jessica Utts shares a video clip showing how statistics are presented in the media during her keynote presentation at CSP 2016.

Photos by Megan Ruyle and Sara Davidson

Micah Thornton, right, of Southern Methodist University Darwin Deason Institute for Cyber Security, talks about his poster titled “Sample Size Calculations Using Techniques from Power Analysis.” Conference attendees chat with exhibitors during a break.

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Kim Love-Myers discusses her poster titled ”Moving from Academia to Private Practice.”

Peihua Qiu of the University of Florida teaches a short course titled Modern Statistical Process Control Charts and Their Use as a Tool for Analyzing Big Data. CSP 2016 conference attendees talk during a lunch break.

Participants heard talks such as “Effective Data serving the needs of statistical practitioners by Visualization: Understanding What the Mind providing a forum to learn, share, and discuss Sees” and “Machine Learning Variable Selection statistical techniques, innovations, and best prac- for Credit Risk Modeling.” CSP also featured short tices. Still, the small size allows for a more per- courses ranging from bootstrap methods and personal environment, making it easier for attendees MORE ONLINE mutation tests to adaptive designs, as well as tuto- to participate in discussion during the sessions Look for all this and rials, exhibits, poster sessions, practical computing and courses and connect with each other dur- more in Jacksonville, Florida, which will demonstrations, social events, and the keynote ing the scheduled break times. The shortest talks host CSP 2017. address provided by ASA President Jessica Utts. are 45 minutes to allow thorough discussion. By www.amstat.org/ CSP continues to grow each year, highlight- design, the CSP conference space is generally meetings/csp/2017 ing the importance of a conference dedicated to one common area in which the exhibitor booths,

april 2016 amstat news 35 meetings

Sally C. Morton of the University of Pittsburgh presents her talk about business acumen.

Gail Walker listens as Felicia Hardnett of the CDC discusses her poster, which focuses on three classes of statistical Tim Hesterburg of Google teaches during a short course titled Bootstrap methods for comparing survival after AIDS diagnosis across Methods and Permutation Tests. population subgroups.

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AWARD WINNERS

JOHN J. BARTKO AWARD LINGZI LIU AWARD LESTER R. CURTIN AWARD Joy Houchun Liu, Cornell University Peng Liu, University of Pittsburgh Brittany Bailey, The Ohio State University

opening mixer, poster sessions, continental breakfasts, and breaks are shared. Every year, we receive comments regarding the advantages of the unique set-up and small size that allow for enhanced networking. One of the most popular themes continues to be “Communication, Impact, and Career Development.” The courses and sessions in this theme provide participants with tools that can be used to enhance communication with colleagues and customers, have a positive impact on their organization, and develop leadership skills. The CSP Mentoring Program also continues to be a success. Developed by the Committee on Applied Statisticians, the program establishes 1:1 mentoring relationships to help provide an opportunity to enhance personal and professional development goals. The program was limited to 40 participants and filled quickly. For the second year, we recognized outstanding student posters from great contributions. The CSP 2016 Best Student Poster Award went to Micah Thornton of Southern Methodist University Darwin Deason Institute for Cyber Security for “Sample Size Calculations Using Techniques from Power Analysis.” The runners-up were Brittney Bailey of The Ohio State University for “Classroom to Collaboration: A Grad Student’s Tips for a Successful Transition” and Sophi Yu-Pu Chen of the University of Michigan for “A Web-Based System for Randomized Assignment in Clinical Trials Using Minimization.” n CSP 2016 attendees check out exhibits during the conference.

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Christine Franklin Named First ASA K–12 Statistical Ambassador

he ASA is pleased to Generation Science Standards announce Christine Franklin include increased statistics con- as the inaugural ASA K–12 tent, especially at the middle- and StatisticalT Ambassador. Franklin will high-school levels. With the recent provide leadership in the creation Statistical Education of Teachers (SET) and presentation of professional Report, it is clear there is a need for development materials for teacher professional development for teacher educators and teachers. She will pres- educators in addition to expanded ent at national conferences, conduct professional development for pre- workshops, collaborate with ASA Christine Franklin service and in-service teachers. chapters to enhance their education The ASA and National Council initiatives, and assist in outreach to the STEM edu- of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) released a cation community. joint statement about the importance of and need Franklin is a recognized leader in K–12 statistics for preparing pre-service and in-service teachers to education. She is the lead author of the GAISE Pre- teach the increased statistics content in the standards. K–12 and SET reports, a proponent of the inclusion To enhance teacher training and student learning of increased statistics content in the Georgia K–12 in these areas, teachers need access to materials and standards, a recent Fulbright Scholar focusing on sta- professional development supported by statistics edu- tistics education in New Zealand, an ASA Founders cation research and tied to current statistics require- Award recipient, a former AP Statistics chief reader, ments in the standards. a member of the presidential initiative workgroup to The ASA currently provides teacher professional provide career information to AP and other K–12 development through the Meeting Within a Meeting teachers, and the current chair of the ASA/NCTM (MWM) Statistics Workshop, Beyond AP Statistics Joint Committee on Curriculum in Statistics and Workshop, and K–12 statistics education webi- Probability. She also has authored or co-authored two nars. However, more outreach is needed to make a textbooks and numerous articles and book chapters national impact, and the timing is critical. Through related to K–16 statistics education. Finally, she was the new K–12 statistical ambassador position, we a key member of the National Science Foundation– will advance the national dialogue to prominently funded LOCUS project, chairing the committee that include the need for every child to be able to apply developed statistical assessment items for grades K–9. statistical thinking in problem-solving. This will not As her credentials affirm, Franklin is a true sta- only contribute to K–12 education, but will ensure tistics education ambassador. Her retirement from that policymakers and decision-makers recognize the the University of Georgia at the end of this academ- value of the statistics discipline. In light of the 2016 ic year creates a unique opportunity for the ASA update of the GAISE College Report and the updated to formalize this role and share her passion with Curriculum Guidelines for Undergraduate Programs more teachers. It was Franklin’s Fulbright experi- in Statistical Science, the ambassador will also pro- ence working at the K–12 level internationally that mote collaboration between K–12 and undergradu- brought her awareness of the great need for support- ate statistics education, including teacher educators. ing efforts in statistics at K–12 internationally, not Big Data has focused the nation’s attention on just in the United States. Franklin will start as the data science and new standards have raised the K–12 statistical ambassador in September to expand expectations for both students and teachers, so the her statistics education work with K–12 teachers, timing is right for a K–12 statistical ambassador. teacher educators, and other stakeholders. Franklin will be available to ensure that statistics The Common Core State Standards for education is recognized as central to ensuring all Mathematics adopted by most states and the Next children are “college and career ready.” n

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ASA Welcomes Slate of New Editors

he ASA welcomes the following incoming Association and former co-editor of the Journal of editors: Human Resources. Clark and Dehejia will serve as co-editors from JASA Applications and Case Studies and T 2016–2018, taking over from Rong Chen of Rutgers Coordinating Editor: Montserrat Fuentes, University and Shakeeb Khan of Duke University. North Carolina State University Search Committee: Keisuke Hirano and Jonathan Fuentes completed her editorship of the Journal Wright (co-chairs), Elie Tamer, Mark Watson, and Jeff of Agricultural and Biological Statistics at the end Wooldridge of 2015 and transitioned immediately to edi- Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics: tor of JASA Applications and Case Studies and coordinating editor. She earned her PhD in 1998 Dianne Cook, Monash University from The University of Chicago and has been on Cook holds a PhD from Rutgers University and the North Carolina State University faculty since is a fellow of the American Statistical Association. then. Fuentes possesses a strong research record, Her research is in data visualization, exploratory including more than 70 refereed journal articles. data analysis, multivariate methods, data mining, Her research work is focused on statistical meth- and statistical computing, resulting in more than ods for environmental data. 50 journal articles and book chapters, a book on Fuentes’ term is from 2016–2018, and she takes interactive graphics, and numerous open-source over for outgoing editor, Joseph Ibrahim of The software products, including xgobi, ggobi, cran- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. vas, tourr, tourGui, GGally, and nullabor. Cook Search Committee: Hal Stern (chair), Sudipto has developed new methods for visualizing high- Banerjee, David Banks, Marina Vannucci dimensional data using tours, with projection pursuit guidance and manual control, pipelines Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Co-Editors: for interactive graphics, and a grammar of graph- Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ics for biological data. Her most recent work and Rajeev Dehejia, New York University focuses on bridging the gap between statistical Clark earned his PhD in economics from the inference and exploratory graphics. She plans to University of Michigan and is currently vice enhance the reproducibility of the methods in president of macroeconomic policy at the Federal articles published in JCGS. Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He has made impor- Cook’s term is from 2016–2018, taking over for tant methodological and empirical contributions Thomas Lee of the University of California at Davis. in forecasting and macroeconomics and published JCGS Management Committee: Susan Holmes extensively in econometrics, statistics, and econom- (chair), Roy Welsch, George Michailidis, Hadley ics journals. Clark’s work at the Federal Reserve Wickham, and Berwin Turlach makes him especially well suited to judge the Technometrics: Dan Apley, Northwestern importance of empirical papers in macroeconomics and finance as an associate editor. University Dehejia is professor at the Wagner School of Apley is familiar with Technometrics, having served Public Service of New York University. He is a two terms as an associate editor. His research record prominent researcher in empirical microeconom- demonstrates in-depth knowledge of areas that are ics, development economics, and statistical meth- high on the journal’s agenda and includes publi- ods for causal inference and program evaluation, cations on statistical process control with complex including propensity score analysis. He has pub- data structures, engineering statistics, Gaussian lished extensively in econometrics, statistics, and process modeling, and applications involving Big economics journals and has served as an associ- Data. All are areas in which Technometrics has estab- ate editor for the Journal of Business & Economic lished a strong presence, and members of the man- Statistics since 2010. He is also a former associate agement committee view Big Data as an area that editor for the Journal of the American Statistical holds great potential for the journal.

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Apley will continue to promote areas that JNPS Search Committee: Suojin Wang (chair), are established strengths of Technometrics while Ian McKeague, Alan Welsh, and Lijian Yang pointing to directions under the general head- Statistical Analysis and Data Mining: Niall Adams, ing of “analytics” that can serve as springboards to emerging and exciting directions in statisti- Imperial College, London cal research and application. He also noted the Adams has extensive experience in statistical expanding role of service organizations in indus- data mining as both an academic researcher try and the importance to them of analytics. and a practitioner. His awards have been both Apley will serve as editor-elect for 2016, and as an individual (Winton Research Prize, 2011; his term will be from 2017–2019, taking over for Rector’s Award for Excellence in Research Peihua Qiu of the University of Florida, Gainesville. Student Supervision, 2012) and as part of a team Technometrics Management Committee: David (“The Engineer” Technology and Innovation Steinberg (chair), Connie M. Borror, Ronald Does, Award, Aerospace and Defense category, 2009, Doug Montgomery, Robert Mee, Dean Neubauer, as a co-leader; Credit Collections and Risk, and Scott A. Vander Wiel Contributions to the Credit Industry, 2012, as Journal of Statistics Education: Soma Roy, a team member). He has served on the editorial panels for Applied Statistics and Journal of California Polytechnic State University the Royal Statistical Society Series C (2008–2012) Roy holds a PhD in statistics from The Ohio and the editorial board for Statistical Analysis and State University and has been involved with Data Mining (2009–2014). JSE—first as a referee, and then as associate edi- Adams’ term will run from 2016–2018, taking tor and editor of data sets and stories—since over for David Madigan. 2008. She has a great deal of relevant teaching Statistical Analysis and Data Mining Search experience and the support of colleagues who Committee: Joe Verducci (chair), Xiaotong Shen, and understand and appreciate the journal. These Cynthia Rudin connections are vital to the success and contin- SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification: ued growth of JSE. Roy presented the search committee with a Dave Higdon, Virginia Tech University number of ideas in her vision for JSE, including Higdon is a dominant figure in the development and ideas for new columns and sections and topics application of complex models and advancing the for special issues. area of uncertainty quantification (UQ). His publica- Roy’s term will be from 2016–2018, taking over tion record is extensive; he co-chaired the influential for Michelle Everson of The Ohio State University. National Research Council report on UQ in 2012. JSE Search Committee: John Gabrosek (chair), He also played an important role in the estab- Jackie Dietz, Bob Stephenson, and Chris Franklin lishment of the Journal on Uncertainty Qualification (JUQ) and currently serves as an associate editor. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics: Jun Shao, Higdon has worked extensively with applied math- University of Wisconsin ematicians and other scientists, especially during Shao has a PhD in statistics from the University his tenure at Los Alamos National Laboratory. His of Wisconsin and brings an array of academic and statistical expertise and stature is of the highest, industry experience to JNPS. He is a fellow of the an important consideration in the role of editor- ASA and Institute of Mathematical Statistics and in-chief at JUQ. His new position at Virginia Tech served as president of the International Chinese offers the potential for widening JUQ’s scope to Statistical Association in 2007. His editorial experi- include complex social science models. ence includes a term as co-editor for the Journal of JUQ Search Committee: Jerome Sacks (chair), System Science and Complexity, Journal of Multivariate James Berger, and Max Morris Analysis, and Sankhya and associate editor of the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology: Journal of the American Statistical Association and Statistica Sinica. Roderick Little, University of Michigan Shao’s term is from 2016–2018, and he takes Little has extensive editorial experience, includ- over for Irene Gijbels. ing serving as coordinating and applications

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editor for the Journal of the American Statistical and served as the inaugural associate director for Association from 1992–1994, associate editor for research and methodology and chief scientist at the Applications and Theory and Methods sec- the U.S. Census Bureau. While his primary positions of JASA, and associate editor for Biometrics. tion at Michigan is in biostatistics, he is also a He also has served as co-chair of the advisory research professor in the Survey Research Center committee of JSSAM since the journal’s inception at the University of Michigan Institute for Social (until stepping down recently because of the edi- Research and has published extensively on survey torial search). research topics. Little also has an extensive background and JSSAM Search Committee: Michael Link understanding of the field. He was a statistician (chair), Rachel Caspar, J.K.N. Rao, Peter Miller, at the World Fertility Survey from 1976–1980 and Mary Thompson n

Senior Statisticians Talk Disability Statistics

From left, first row: Mary Batcher, Jennifer Madans, Monroe Sirken, Tom Jabine, Barbara Mader, Doug Samuelson. From left, middle row: Elizabeth Margosches, NJ Scheers, Walter Rosenkrantz, Carl Pierchala, Maurice Owens, Dan Kasprzyk, David Whitford, Larry Wiener, Mel Kollander. From left, back row: Mike Messner, Fritz Scheuren, David Nolle, Clifton Bailey, Jerry Gates, Mike Cohen, Pepi Lacayo.

he Washington, DC, senior statisti- from third-world countries. Madans and her cians’ monthly gathering had about colleagues took the data from fairly nonexistent 25 attendees in February, including in 2000 to today, when countries can compare TMary Batcher, candidate for ASA president; how well those with disabilities are functioning Tom Jabine; and Monroe Sirken. in their countries. Jennifer Madans, associate director for sci- Since its founding, the society has grown ence at the National Center for Health Statistics from a few participants to more than 70 and the 2015 honoree for the Roger Herriot members. If you are interested in attending Award for Innovation in Federal Statistics, gave a future meeting, contact Mel Kollander at a talk titled “The Coming of Age of Disability [email protected] or Mike Fleming at charles. Statistics.” In it, she addressed some of the chal- [email protected]. Each meeting is limited to lenges of measuring disabilities so the data can 35 attendees, and the next meeting is sched- be compared internationally, including data uled for September.

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SAMSI Poised to Help Hone Gravitational Wave Astronomy

Aerial view of the LIGO detector in Livingston, Louisiana; a twin detector is located in Hanford, Washington.

Jamie Nunnelly, SAMSI Communications Director

long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, two hole. The LIGO project announced the discovery to large black holes—each with a mass of about the world on February 11, 2016, dubbing the event 30 suns—reached the end of an aeons-long GW150914. Now, the NSF’s Statistical and Applied orbitalA dance. In the final second of their separate Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI) will help existences, they spiraled toward each other, whirling astronomers take the next steps in making the most with a frequency that quickly rose from tens to hun- of this and future gravitational wave discoveries. dreds of cycles per second. At last, they touched, In November of 2014, SAMSI sought input then violently merged in the space of about 20 mil- from the astronomical community for a year-long liseconds, producing a single black hole that quick- program that would gather astronomers, statisti- ly settled down to a bloated, lone existence. cians, and applied mathematicians to address chal- Had a video camera been present, it would like- lenging interdisciplinary problems in astronomy. ly have seen little; black holes are black, after all, Led by statistician G. Jogesh Babu of Penn State regions where gravity is so strong that not even light University, a team of scientists identified a set of can escape. Yet during that final merger, the power timely research directions under the overarching emitted was larger than all the power being emit- and overlapping themes of time-domain astrono- ted in light by all the stars in all the galaxies in the my and survey-based astronomy. With renovations observable universe. to LIGO nearing completion, gravitational wave The merger shone, not in electromagnetic waves, data analysis was quickly identified as a focus area, but in gravitational waves. The black hole binary’s along with exoplanets (which are detected via time dance continually sloshed the fabric of space and series measurements), synoptic surveys (an emerg- time in its vicinity, sending out waves carrying news ing mode of large-scale automated time-domain of the invisible event as fluctuations in the spatial observing), and cosmology. separations of objects, and in the flow of time. They In September of 2015, scientists gathered at followed paths outward from the merger in all direc- SAMSI to plan the 2016–2017 Program on Statistical, tions at the speed of light, diminishing in amplitude Mathematical, and Computational Methods for but maintaining their shape, an encoding of the Astronomy (ASTRO). The planning team included story of the merger in the dynamics of spacetime. LIGO scientists who had just learned of the candidate After a billion-year journey, the waves reached Earth. detection and had to keep it secret until confirmed. This is not the start of a science fiction tale. On Of five working groups planned for the ASTRO September 14, 2015, the waves from that distant program, four will address LIGO data analysis chal- merger met the Laser Interferometer Gravitational lenges in concert with related challenges in other areas wave Observatory (LIGO) and produced a signal, of time-domain astronomy (a fifth working group will the culmination of more than four decades of effort focus on statistical problems in cosmology). sponsored by the National Science Foundation The ASTRO program is just the latest of several (NSF) and international sources. Months of analy- productive programs SAMSI has hosted to build sis by many dozens of scientists confirmed its real- interdisciplinary partnerships between astronomers, ity and enabled detailed measurement of the prop- statisticians, and mathematicians. To read more about erties of the merging black holes, and of the final the ASTRO program, visit http://bit.ly/1pxXjXr. n

42 amstat news april 2016 people news

Obituaries John Michael the department of applied statistics and was John Rhodes Michael passed away on January 7 chaired by F. N. David. D.V. was the depart- after a long illness. ment chair at UC-Riverside from 1985–1988 John was born and raised in the and retired in 2000, but remained active in Washington, DC, area and graduated from the department through his research with Duke University in 1967. After graduation, colleagues, periodic voluntary teaching, and he went on to serve in the United States Air an array of social- and career-oriented events Force as an intelligence offer/captain during with students. the Vietnam War until 1973. D.V. was a recognized scholar for his con- A scientist at heart, John forever pursued tributions to information theory, discrete new ways of thinking and questioning tradi- data analysis, and nonparametric statistics tional paradigms. So after his service in the Air that included the analysis of multidimen- Force, he continued his education and earned sional contingency tables and correspon- his PhD in statistical science from Southern dence analysis. In 1978, he published a book Methodist University and another PhD in with Solomon Kullback titled Information industrial organizational psychology from The Approach to the Analysis of Contingency Tables. George Washington University. This text was the basis for his popular gradu- John worked as a research scientist and con- ate course in the analysis of discrete data. sultant and published numerous renowned sci- D.V. is a fellow of the American Statistical entific papers. Association and an elected member of the To read his full obituary, visit http://bit. International Statistical Institute. ly/220wtZp. During his career at UC-Riverside, D.V. mentored 13 PhD students and was a strong Joseph Garcia advocate for many others. Affectionately Joe Garcia passed away on August 27 after a known as “Dr. G,” D.V. was an open and short illness. embracing figure in the department, always A technical director at Combustion looking for the potential in every student Engineering and teacher at the Hartford Graduate and searching out opportunities for them center of Rensselaer, he “retired” to Newcastle, to demonstrate it. He was a regular reader Maine, where he taught math and statistics at of Advanced Placement Statistics exams. In Southern Maine Community College. 2012, the department established an annual Read more about Joseph at http://bit. Gokhale Lecture, in which speakers primar- ly/1TMoqLk. ily aim their talks to undergraduate students. In 2006, through donations and his own Dattaprabhakar Vinayak (D.V.) Gokhale personal bequest, D.V. established the D.V. Dattaprabhakar Vinayak (D.V.) Gokhale, Gokhale International Grants in Statistics emeritus professor in the statistics depart- Program in collaboration with the Institute ment at the University of California at of International Education. The program is Riverside, passed away February 27, 2016, designed to enable statistics students and fac- shortly before his 80th birthday. ulty to participate in an exchange program Studying under a Fulbright travel grant between India and the United States. from the Institute of International Education, D.V. will be remembered as a kind and D.V. earned his degree from the University considerate friend by all who had occasion to of California at Berkeley under the mentor- interact with him for his ready smile and incli- ship of Erich Lehmann. Following his grad- nation to be genuinely interested in listening uation, he spent a year at the University of to other people. In addition to his wife, Asha, Pune, India, before joining what was then the he is survived by a son, Vinay, and his wife, department of biostatistics at UC-Riverside in Rani; a daughter, Dalika, and her husband, 1970. The department subsequently became Robert; and four grandchildren.

april 2016 amstat news 43 section • chapter • committee news sectionnews Physical and Engineering are 1–1.5 years. Investigators at research expenses, and honoraria Sciences all levels are encouraged to apply; and travel expenses for visit- however, award recipients must be ing lecturers to the investigator’s Byran Smucker, JSM Program ASA and Biometrics Section mem- home institution. Chair-Elect bers prior to project initiation. A project period with a start The Section on Physical and A three-page application is date no earlier than July 1 and an Engineering Sciences (SPES) is due May 30 and should be in the end date no later than December sponsoring the following three following format: 31 also should be specified. roundtable sessions at JSM 2016 • Title, Objectives, and Applications should be submit- in Chicago: Specific Aims ted electronically to the Strategic • Learn More About Initiatives Subcommittee chair, the Industrial Virtual • Background, Significance, Tanya Garcia, at tpgarcia16@ Collaboratory, an A.M. and/or Rationale gmail.com. All investigators will roundtable session hosted • Design and Methods be expected to submit a brief by Jennifer van Mullekom report at the conclusion of the of Dupont • Deliverables/Products project to the subcommittee chair. Questions should be addressed to • Is Your Mixed Model • Personnel/Budget either Garcia or to the subcom- Analysis Mixed Up?, a Allowable expenditures include mittee co-chair, Page Moore, at P.M. roundtable hosted by supplies and other program costs, [email protected]. Phil Gibbs of SAS domestic travel (when necessary The section will also sponsor • Online Experimentation: to carry out the project), profes- five continuing education cours- What It Is and Why sional expertise (e.g., instructional es and six invited sessions at the It Is So Important, a designer or webmaster), and cost 2016 Joint Statistical Meetings in P.M. roundtable hosted of computer time. Expenditures Chicago. Visit last month’s sec- by Peter Qian of the not allowed are secretarial/admin- tion news at http://bit.ly/1SzXjSq University of Washington istrative personnel, tuition, for details. n foreign travel, faculty salaries, If you are interested in attending these sessions, registration is required. More information about these roundtables can be found at www.amstat.org/ Integrating Quality and Statistics: A Transformative Alliance meetings/jsm/2016. n QUALITY AND PRODUCTIVITY Biometrics RESEARCH CONFERENCE Edited by Sheng Luo, Biometrics DoubleTree by Hilton • Tempe, Arizona • June 14–16, 2016 Section Publications Officer The ASA Biometrics Section The goal of the conference is to stimulate interdisciplinary research invites applications for funding to among statisticians, scientists, and engineers in quality and productivity, support projects developing inno- industrial needs, and the physical and engineering sciences. vative outreach projects focused on enhancing awareness of bio- For information on the conference, contact either Rong Pan at [email protected] or Steven Rigdon at [email protected]. statistics among quantitatively talented U.S. students. Of particular interest are projects that will encourage students to pursue WWW.QPRC2016.COM advanced training in biostatistics. The section anticipates funding up to three projects this year, with The deadline for submitting a contributed paper total funding of $3,000–$5,000 has been extended to May 1, 2016. per project. The project timelines

44 amstat news april 2016 professional opportunities

Professional Opportunity listings may not exceed 65 words, plus equal opportunity information. The deadline for their receipt is the 20th of the month two months prior to when the ad is to be published (e.g., May 20 for the July issue). Ads will be published in the next available issue following receipt. Listings are shown alphabetically by state, followed by international listings. Vacancy listings may include the institutional name and address or be identified by number, as desired. Professional Opportunities vacancies also will be published on the ASA’s website (www.amstat.org). Vacancy listings will appear on the website for the entire calendar month. Ads may not be placed for publication in the magazine only; all ads will be published both electronically and in print. Rates: $320 for nonprofit organizations (with proof of nonprofit status), $475 for all others. Member discounts are not given. For display and online advertising rates, go to www.amstat.org/ads. Listings will be invoiced following publication. All payments should be made to the American Statistical Association. All material should be sent to Amstat News, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314- 1943; fax (703) 684-2036; email [email protected]. Employers are expected to acknowledge all responses resulting from publication of their ads. Personnel advertising is accepted with the understanding that the advertiser does not discriminate among applicants on the basis of race, sex, religion, age, color, national origin, handicap, or sex- ual orientation. Also, look for job ads on the ASA website at www.amstat.org/jobweb.

Maine Ohio n Assistant or Associate Professor (applied n The Cleveland Clinic Department statistics). The Husson University School of Quantitative Health Sciences is of Science and Humanities invites appli- recruiting for faculty and master’s- cations for a full-time, ranked faculty level biostatisticians and statistical position in applied statistics to begin in programers. Details for all positions, fall 2016. Teaching responsibilities will as well as application instructions, are include statistics courses at the general on our website: www.lerner.ccf.org/ education level, as well as upper-level qhs/jobs/ EOE. courses. For complete job details, please visit: http://bit.ly/24MwVJQ. Job ID: Pennsylvania 7866534. EOE. n Janssen R&D, LLC, a Johnson & Johnson company, is seeking a senior New Jersey biostatistician, nonclinical statistics n Vice President, Statistics & & computing, in Spring House, PA. Psychometrics. Educational Testing Responsibilities include experimental Service (ETS), Princeton, NJ, seeks a design, data analysis, interpretation, leader for its R&D division. Will provide and communication of results. MS strategic, tactical, and financial oversight in statistics with 4+ years experience and be responsible for data analysis and or PhD in statistics with 2+ years of psychometric support of major testing experience. Familiarity with nonlinear products and contracts, and psycho- modeling, Bayesian methodologies, metric research. Requires doctorate and and generalized mixed modeling 12 years of experience. For a full list of is desirable. Please visit http://bit. responsibilities and to apply, please visit ly/1RSnLWT for more information. http://bit.ly/VP-Psychometrics. EOE. EOE.

april 2016 amstat news 45 South Carolina n The multidisciplinary hearing research program in the department of otolaryn- gology-head and neck surgery, Medical University of South Carolina, is searching for a collaborative faculty colleague with expertise in applied multivariable longitudinal analyses, multi-level modeling, nonlinear regression, Bayesian methods, and nonparametric testing. Strong skills needed in descriptive analysis, modeling of data, and graphic inter- faces. Master’s degree or PhD in applied statistics, biostatistics, or related fields. http://bit.ly/24MwRtw. The Medical University of South Carolina is an EEO/ AA employer. Texas n Biostatistics faculty position. Assistant/ associate professor (tenure-track) to work in Division of Clinical and Translational Sciences (DCTS) within Internal Medicine (IM) at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth).Will work closely with a multidisciplinary team of biostatisticians, epidemiologists, and clinicians. Interested candidates should refer to the job posting at http://bit.ly/1M3eMMn. Click “Faculty/ Join us this summer for Staff Physicians” and enter the requisi- tion #161268 for more information. The University of Texas Health Science Center JSM 2016 at Houston is an EO/AA employer. M/F/ D/V. This is a security-sensitive position and thereby subject to Texas Education Code ß 51.215. A background check will CHICAGO be required for the final candidate. July 30−August 4 KEY DATES n The University of Texas at Dallas Department of Mathematical Sciences is May 2: Registration and housing open seeking applications for a clinical professor position in actuarial science, to begin June 1: Early registration deadline September 1, 2016. All areas of actuarial science will be considered. Curriculum June 29: Housing deadline vita, a letter of interest and descrip- tions of educational background and June 30: Regular registration deadline teaching experience, and at least three letters of reference should be submitted July 21: Late registration deadline via ONLINE APPLICATION FORM: http://bit.ly/21hy2N2. AA/EOE. Learn more at www.amstat/org/jsm.

46 amstat news april 2016 AMSTATNEWS ADVERTISING DIRECTORY

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april 2016 amstat news 47 SOCIAL CHATTER What our followers are saying online FOLLOW US Amstat News: The ASA releases a statement on p-values and statistical significance. community. amstat.org Read it online for free in The American Statistician: http://bit.ly/1p4Knb2.

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www.instagram Joana Amaral Paulo .com/AmstatNews FINALLY! Will include as a citation in several of my manuscripts...

Nature News&Comment • @NatureNews Alex Sverdlov American Stats Assoc issues warning over misuse Great news indeed! I bet of P-values: http://ow.ly/Z9Kgx #pvalue this paper will hit 1K citations in 1 year.

Nicholas Horton • @askdrstats The Nature News piece should be required reading for all statisticians and data scientists! @AmstatNews

This month, in honor of SITW • @StatsInTheWild Math Awareness Month, The @AmstatNews taking an official position on we’ll ask our followers to p-values is a VERY big deal. look into their crystal balls and predict the next big stats trend. Stefan Müller • @stfnmllr This statement might have a significant impact… Follow us to read the – no, let’s better say long-lasting effect! responses or send us one @AmstatNews #pvalue of your own. Don’t forget to tag @AmstatNews and Amy Hogan • @alittlestats #mathawarenessmonth What do I <3 more? @AmstatNews statement and follow @MathAware. on #pvalue or the transparency w/ the process that led to it? #statschat

48 amstat news april 2016