Beyond Subjective and Objective in Statistics
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The Interpretation of Probability: Still an Open Issue? 1
philosophies Article The Interpretation of Probability: Still an Open Issue? 1 Maria Carla Galavotti Department of Philosophy and Communication, University of Bologna, Via Zamboni 38, 40126 Bologna, Italy; [email protected] Received: 19 July 2017; Accepted: 19 August 2017; Published: 29 August 2017 Abstract: Probability as understood today, namely as a quantitative notion expressible by means of a function ranging in the interval between 0–1, took shape in the mid-17th century, and presents both a mathematical and a philosophical aspect. Of these two sides, the second is by far the most controversial, and fuels a heated debate, still ongoing. After a short historical sketch of the birth and developments of probability, its major interpretations are outlined, by referring to the work of their most prominent representatives. The final section addresses the question of whether any of such interpretations can presently be considered predominant, which is answered in the negative. Keywords: probability; classical theory; frequentism; logicism; subjectivism; propensity 1. A Long Story Made Short Probability, taken as a quantitative notion whose value ranges in the interval between 0 and 1, emerged around the middle of the 17th century thanks to the work of two leading French mathematicians: Blaise Pascal and Pierre Fermat. According to a well-known anecdote: “a problem about games of chance proposed to an austere Jansenist by a man of the world was the origin of the calculus of probabilities”2. The ‘man of the world’ was the French gentleman Chevalier de Méré, a conspicuous figure at the court of Louis XIV, who asked Pascal—the ‘austere Jansenist’—the solution to some questions regarding gambling, such as how many dice tosses are needed to have a fair chance to obtain a double-six, or how the players should divide the stakes if a game is interrupted. -
National Academy Elects IMS Fellows Have You Voted Yet?
Volume 38 • Issue 5 IMS Bulletin June 2009 National Academy elects IMS Fellows CONTENTS The United States National Academy of Sciences has elected 72 new members and 1 National Academy elects 18 foreign associates from 15 countries in recognition of their distinguished and Raftery, Wong continuing achievements in original research. Among those elected are two IMS Adrian Raftery 2 Members’ News: Jianqing Fellows: , Blumstein-Jordan Professor of Statistics and Sociology, Center Fan; SIAM Fellows for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, and Wing Hung Wong, Professor 3 Laha Award recipients of Statistics and Professor of Health Research and Policy, 4 COPSS Fisher Lecturer: Department of Statistics, Stanford University, California. Noel Cressie The election was held April 28, during the business 5 Members’ Discoveries: session of the 146th annual meeting of the Academy. Nicolai Meinshausen Those elected bring the total number of active members 6 Medallion Lecture: Tony Cai to 2,150. Foreign associates are non-voting members of the Academy, with citizenship outside the United States. Meeting report: SSP Above: Adrian Raftery 7 This year’s election brings the total number of foreign 8 New IMS Fellows Below: Wing H. Wong associates to 404. The National Academy of Sciences is a private 10 Obituaries: Keith Worsley; I.J. Good organization of scientists and engineers dedicated to the furtherance of science and its use for general welfare. 12-3 JSM program highlights; It was established in 1863 by a congressional act of IMS sessions at JSM incorporation signed by Abraham Lincoln that calls on 14-5 JSM tours; More things to the Academy to act as an official adviser to the federal do in DC government, upon request, in any matter of science or 16 Accepting rejections technology. -
Front Matter
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-14577-0 - Probability and Mathematical Genetics Edited by N. H. Bingham and C. M. Goldie Frontmatter More information LONDON MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY LECTURE NOTE SERIES Managing Editor: Professor M. Reid, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom The titles below are available from booksellers, or from Cambridge University Press at www.cambridge.org/mathematics 300 Introduction to M¨obiusdifferential geometry, U. HERTRICH-JEROMIN 301 Stable modules and the D(2)-problem, F. E. A. JOHNSON 302 Discrete and continuous nonlinear Schr¨odingersystems, M. J. ABLOWITZ, B. PRINARI & A. D. TRUBATCH 303 Number theory and algebraic geometry, M. REID & A. SKOROBOGATOV (eds) 304 Groups St Andrews 2001 in Oxford I, C. M. CAMPBELL, E. F. ROBERTSON & G. C. SMITH (eds) 305 Groups St Andrews 2001 in Oxford II, C. M. CAMPBELL, E. F. ROBERTSON & G. C. SMITH (eds) 306 Geometric mechanics and symmetry, J. MONTALDI & T. RATIU (eds) 307 Surveys in combinatorics 2003, C. D. WENSLEY (ed.) 308 Topology, geometry and quantum field theory, U. L. TILLMANN (ed) 309 Corings and comodules, T. BRZEZINSKI & R. WISBAUER 310 Topics in dynamics and ergodic theory, S. BEZUGLYI & S. KOLYADA (eds) 311 Groups: topological, combinatorial and arithmetic aspects, T. W. MULLER¨ (ed) 312 Foundations of computational mathematics, Minneapolis 2002, F. CUCKER et al (eds) 313 Transcendental aspects of algebraic cycles, S. MULLER-STACH¨ & C. PETERS (eds) 314 Spectral generalizations of line graphs, D. CVETKOVIC,´ P. ROWLINSON & S. SIMIC´ 315 Structured ring spectra, A. BAKER & B. RICHTER (eds) 316 Linear logic in computer science, T. EHRHARD, P. -
Strength in Numbers: the Rising of Academic Statistics Departments In
Agresti · Meng Agresti Eds. Alan Agresti · Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics DepartmentsStatistics in the U.S. Rising of Academic The in Numbers: Strength Statistics Departments in the U.S. Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. Alan Agresti • Xiao-Li Meng Editors Strength in Numbers: The Rising of Academic Statistics Departments in the U.S. 123 Editors Alan Agresti Xiao-Li Meng Department of Statistics Department of Statistics University of Florida Harvard University Gainesville, FL Cambridge, MA USA USA ISBN 978-1-4614-3648-5 ISBN 978-1-4614-3649-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-3649-2 Springer New York Heidelberg Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2012942702 Ó Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. -
Memorial to Sir Harold Jeffreys 1891-1989 JOHN A
Memorial to Sir Harold Jeffreys 1891-1989 JOHN A. HUDSON and ALAN G. SMITH University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England Harold Jeffreys was one of this century’s greatest applied mathematicians, using mathematics as a means of under standing the physical world. Principally he was a geo physicist, although statisticians may feel that his greatest contribution was to the theory of probability. However, his interest in the latter subject stemmed from his realization of the need for a clear statistical method of analysis of data— at that time, travel-time readings from seismological stations across the world. He also made contributions to astronomy, fluid dynamics, meteorology, botany, psychol ogy, and photography. Perhaps one can identify Jeffreys’s principal interests from three major books that he wrote. His mathematical skills are displayed in Methods of Mathematical Physics, which he wrote with his wife Bertha Swirles Jeffreys and which was first published in 1946 and went through three editions. His Theory o f Probability, published in 1939 and also running to three editions, espoused Bayesian statistics, which were very unfashionable at the time but which have been taken up since by others and shown to be extremely powerful for the analysis of data and, in particular, image enhancement. However, the book for which he is probably best known is The Earth, Its Origin, History and Physical Consti tution, a broad-ranging account based on observations analyzed with care, using mathematics as a tool. Jeffreys’s scientific method (now known as Inverse Theory) was a logical process, clearly stated in another of his books, Scientific Inference. -
ZCWPW1 Is Recruited to Recombination Hotspots by PRDM9
RESEARCH ARTICLE ZCWPW1 is recruited to recombination hotspots by PRDM9 and is essential for meiotic double strand break repair Daniel Wells1,2†*, Emmanuelle Bitoun1,2†*, Daniela Moralli1, Gang Zhang1, Anjali Hinch1, Julia Jankowska1, Peter Donnelly1,2, Catherine Green1, Simon R Myers1,2* 1The Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Roosevelt Drive, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; 2Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom Abstract During meiosis, homologous chromosomes pair and recombine, enabling balanced segregation and generating genetic diversity. In many vertebrates, double-strand breaks (DSBs) initiate recombination within hotspots where PRDM9 binds, and deposits H3K4me3 and H3K36me3. However, no protein(s) recognising this unique combination of histone marks have been identified. We identified Zcwpw1, containing H3K4me3 and H3K36me3 recognition domains, as having highly correlated expression with Prdm9. Here, we show that ZCWPW1 has co-evolved with PRDM9 and, in human cells, is strongly and specifically recruited to PRDM9 binding sites, with higher affinity than sites possessing H3K4me3 alone. Surprisingly, ZCWPW1 also recognises CpG dinucleotides. Male Zcwpw1 knockout mice show completely normal DSB positioning, but persistent DMC1 foci, severe DSB repair and synapsis defects, and downstream sterility. Our findings suggest ZCWPW1 recognition of PRDM9-bound sites at DSB hotspots is critical for *For correspondence: synapsis, and hence fertility. [email protected] (DW); [email protected] (EB); [email protected] (SRM) †These authors contributed Introduction equally to this work Meiosis is a specialised cell division, producing haploid gametes essential for reproduction. Uniquely, during this process homologous maternal and paternal chromosomes pair and exchange Competing interests: The DNA (recombine) before undergoing balanced independent segregation. -
A Parsimonious Tour of Bayesian Model Uncertainty
A Parsimonious Tour of Bayesian Model Uncertainty Pierre-Alexandre Mattei Université Côte d’Azur Inria, Maasai project-team Laboratoire J.A. Dieudonné, UMR CNRS 7351 e-mail: [email protected] Abstract: Modern statistical software and machine learning libraries are enabling semi-automated statistical inference. Within this context, it appears eas- ier and easier to try and fit many models to the data at hand, thereby reversing the Fisherian way of conducting science by collecting data after the scientific hypothesis (and hence the model) has been determined. The renewed goal of the statistician becomes to help the practitioner choose within such large and heterogeneous families of models, a task known as model selection. The Bayesian paradigm offers a systematized way of as- sessing this problem. This approach, launched by Harold Jeffreys in his 1935 book Theory of Probability, has witnessed a remarkable evolution in the last decades, that has brought about several new theoretical and methodological advances. Some of these recent developments are the focus of this survey, which tries to present a unifying perspective on work carried out by different communities. In particular, we focus on non-asymptotic out-of-sample performance of Bayesian model selection and averaging tech- niques, and draw connections with penalized maximum likelihood. We also describe recent extensions to wider classes of probabilistic frameworks in- cluding high-dimensional, unidentifiable, or likelihood-free models. Contents 1 Introduction: collecting data, fitting many models . .2 2 A brief history of Bayesian model uncertainty . .2 3 The foundations of Bayesian model uncertainty . .3 3.1 Handling model uncertainty with Bayes’s theorem . -
IMS Bulletin 39(4)
Volume 39 • Issue 4 IMS1935–2010 Bulletin May 2010 Meet the 2010 candidates Contents 1 IMS Elections 2–3 Members’ News: new ISI members; Adrian Raftery; It’s time for the 2010 IMS elections, and Richard Smith; we introduce this year’s nominees who are IMS Collections vol 5 standing for IMS President-Elect and for IMS Council. You can read all the candi- 4 IMS Election candidates dates’ statements, starting on page 4. 9 Amendments to This year there are also amendments Constitution and Bylaws to the Constitution and Bylaws to vote Letter to the Editor 11 on: they are listed The candidate for IMS President-Elect is Medallion Preview: Laurens on page 9. 13 Ruth Williams de Haan Voting is open until June 26, so 14 COPSS Fisher lecture: Bruce https://secure.imstat.org/secure/vote2010/vote2010.asp Lindsay please visit to cast your vote! 15 Rick’s Ramblings: March Madness 16 Terence’s Stuff: And ANOVA thing 17 IMS meetings 27 Other meetings 30 Employment Opportunities 31 International Calendar of Statistical Events The ten Council candidates, clockwise from top left, are: 35 Information for Advertisers Krzysztof Burdzy, Francisco Cribari-Neto, Arnoldo Frigessi, Peter Kim, Steve Lalley, Neal Madras, Gennady Samorodnitsky, Ingrid Van Keilegom, Yazhen Wang and Wing H Wong Abstract submission deadline extended to April 30 IMS Bulletin 2 . IMs Bulletin Volume 39 . Issue 4 Volume 39 • Issue 4 May 2010 IMS members’ news ISSN 1544-1881 International Statistical Institute elects new members Contact information Among the 54 new elected ISI members are several IMS members. We congratulate IMS IMS Bulletin Editor: Xuming He Fellow Jon Wellner, and IMS members: Subhabrata Chakraborti, USA; Liliana Forzani, Assistant Editor: Tati Howell Argentina; Ronald D. -
Elect New Council Members
Volume 43 • Issue 3 IMS Bulletin April/May 2014 Elect new Council members CONTENTS The annual IMS elections are announced, with one candidate for President-Elect— 1 IMS Elections 2014 Richard Davis—and 12 candidates standing for six places on Council. The Council nominees, in alphabetical order, are: Marek Biskup, Peter Bühlmann, Florentina Bunea, Members’ News: Ying Hung; 2–3 Sourav Chatterjee, Frank Den Hollander, Holger Dette, Geoffrey Grimmett, Davy Philip Protter, Raymond Paindaveine, Kavita Ramanan, Jonathan Taylor, Aad van der Vaart and Naisyin Wang. J. Carroll, Keith Crank, You can read their statements starting on page 8, or online at http://www.imstat.org/ Bani K. Mallick, Robert T. elections/candidates.htm. Smythe and Michael Stein; Electronic voting for the 2014 IMS Elections has opened. You can vote online using Stephen Fienberg; Alexandre the personalized link in the email sent by Aurore Delaigle, IMS Executive Secretary, Tsybakov; Gang Zheng which also contains your member ID. 3 Statistics in Action: A If you would prefer a paper ballot please contact IMS Canadian Outlook Executive Director, Elyse Gustafson (for contact details see the 4 Stéphane Boucheron panel on page 2). on Big Data Elections close on May 30, 2014. If you have any questions or concerns please feel free to 5 NSF funding opportunity e [email protected] Richard Davis contact Elyse Gustafson . 6 Hand Writing: Solving the Right Problem 7 Student Puzzle Corner 8 Meet the Candidates 13 Recent Papers: Probability Surveys; Stochastic Systems 15 COPSS publishes 50th Marek Biskup Peter Bühlmann Florentina Bunea Sourav Chatterjee anniversary volume 16 Rao Prize Conference 17 Calls for nominations 19 XL-Files: My Valentine’s Escape 20 IMS meetings Frank Den Hollander Holger Dette Geoffrey Grimmett Davy Paindaveine 25 Other meetings 30 Employment Opportunities 31 International Calendar 35 Information for Advertisers Read it online at Kavita Ramanan Jonathan Taylor Aad van der Vaart Naisyin Wang http://bulletin.imstat.org IMSBulletin 2 . -
Statistical Science Meets Philosophy of Science Part 2: Shallow Versus Deep Explorations
RMM Vol. 3, 2012, 71–107 Special Topic: Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science Edited by Deborah G. Mayo, Aris Spanos and Kent W. Staley http://www.rmm-journal.de/ Deborah Mayo Statistical Science Meets Philosophy of Science Part 2: Shallow versus Deep Explorations Abstract: Inability to clearly defend against the criticisms of frequentist methods has turned many a frequentist away from venturing into foundational battlegrounds. Conceding the dis- torted perspectives drawn from overly literal and radical expositions of what Fisher, Ney- man, and Pearson ‘really thought’, some deny they matter to current practice. The goal of this paper is not merely to call attention to the howlers that pass as legitimate crit- icisms of frequentist error statistics, but also to sketch the main lines of an alternative statistical philosophy within which to better articulate the roles and value of frequentist tools. 1. Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat: Did you hear the one about the frequentist. “who defended the reliability of his radiation reading, despite using a broken radiometer, on the grounds that most of the time he uses one that works, so on average he’s pretty reliable?” or “who claimed that observing ‘heads’ on a biased coin that lands heads with probability .05 is evidence of a statistically significant improve- ment over the standard treatment of diabetes, on the grounds that such an event occurs with low probability (.05)?” Such jests may work for an after-dinner laugh, but if it turns out that, despite being retreads of ‘straw-men’ fallacies, they form the basis of why some statis- ticians and philosophers reject frequentist methods, then they are not such a laughing matter. -
STATISTICAL SCIENCE Volume 36, Number 3 August 2021
STATISTICAL SCIENCE Volume 36, Number 3 August 2021 Khinchin’s 1929 Paper on Von Mises’ Frequency Theory of Probability . Lukas M. Verburgt 339 A Problem in Forensic Science Highlighting the Differences between the Bayes Factor and LikelihoodRatio...........................Danica M. Ommen and Christopher P. Saunders 344 A Horse Race between the Block Maxima Method and the Peak–over–Threshold Approach ..................................................................Axel Bücher and Chen Zhou 360 A Hybrid Scan Gibbs Sampler for Bayesian Models with Latent Variables ..........................Grant Backlund, James P. Hobert, Yeun Ji Jung and Kshitij Khare 379 Maximum Likelihood Multiple Imputation: Faster Imputations and Consistent Standard ErrorsWithoutPosteriorDraws...............Paul T. von Hippel and Jonathan W. Bartlett 400 RandomMatrixTheoryandItsApplications.............................Alan Julian Izenman 421 The GENIUS Approach to Robust Mendelian Randomization Inference .....................................Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen, BaoLuo Sun and Stefan Walter 443 AGeneralFrameworkfortheAnalysisofAdaptiveExperiments............Ian C. Marschner 465 Statistical Science [ISSN 0883-4237 (print); ISSN 2168-8745 (online)], Volume 36, Number 3, August 2021. Published quarterly by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 9760 Smith Road, Waite Hill, Ohio 44094, USA. Periodicals postage paid at Cleveland, Ohio and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Statistical Science, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Dues and Subscriptions Office, PO Box 729, Middletown, Maryland 21769, USA. Copyright © 2021 by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics Printed in the United States of America Statistical Science Volume 36, Number 3 (339–492) August 2021 Volume 36 Number 3 August 2021 Khinchin’s 1929 Paper on Von Mises’ Frequency Theory of Probability Lukas M. Verburgt A Problem in Forensic Science Highlighting the Differences between the Bayes Factor and Likelihood Ratio Danica M. -
A Matching Based Theoretical Framework for Estimating Probability of Causation
A Matching Based Theoretical Framework for Estimating Probability of Causation Tapajit Dey and Audris Mockus Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of Tennessee, Knoxville Abstract The concept of Probability of Causation (PC) is critically important in legal contexts and can help in many other domains. While it has been around since 1986, current operationalizations can obtain only the minimum and maximum values of PC, and do not apply for purely observational data. We present a theoretical framework to estimate the distribution of PC from experimental and from purely observational data. We illustrate additional problems of the existing operationalizations and show how our method can be used to address them. We also provide two illustrative examples of how our method is used and how factors like sample size or rarity of events can influence the distribution of PC. We hope this will make the concept of PC more widely usable in practice. Keywords: Probability of Causation, Causality, Cause of Effect, Matching 1. Introduction Our understanding of the world comes from our knowledge about the cause-effect relationship between various events. However, in most of the real world scenarios, one event is caused by multiple other events, having arXiv:1808.04139v1 [stat.ME] 13 Aug 2018 varied degrees of influence over the first event. There are two major concepts associated with such relationships: Cause of Effect (CoE) and Effect of Cause (EoC) [1, 2]. EoC focuses on the question that if event X is the cause/one of the causes of event Y, then what is the probability of event Y given event Email address: [email protected], [email protected] (Tapajit Dey and Audris Mockus) Preprint submitted to arXiv July 2, 2019 X is observed? CoE, on the other hand, tries to answer the question that if event X is known to be (one of) the cause(s) of event Y, then given we have observed both events X and Y, what is the probability that event X was in fact the cause of event Y? In this paper, we focus on the CoE scenario.