Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy 1800 K Street, N.W. • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1 (202) 775-3270 • Fax: 1 (202) 457-8746 Web: http://www.csis.org/burke Iraq’s Evolving Insurgency and the Risk of Civil War Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
[email protected] With the Assistance of Eric M. Brewer & Sara Bjerg Moller Rough Working Draft for Outside Comment Revised: June 22, 2006 Copyright CSIS, all rights reserved. All further dissemination and reproduction must be done with the written permission of the CSIS Cordesman: Iraq’s Evolving Insurgency 6/22/06 Page ii Executive Summary Later Coalition reporting has shown that the insurgency managed to increase the average number of weekly attacks during the period from around 470 in mid-2005 to 620 in May 2006, and succeeded in triggering a steady increase in civil violence and sectarian and ethnic conflict. While Coalition casualties averaged under 20 per day from the spring of 2005 to the spring of 2006, even a partial count of Iraqi casualties rose from less than 60 per day during February 2005 to February 2006 to 78 per day during February though May 2006.1 The quarterly reports that the Department of Defense issued to Congress do not seem to count many low-level incidents and types of civil violence.2 They omit coverage of major problem areas like Arab-Kurdish ethnic violence in the Kirkuk area, and Shi'ite violence in the Basra area. They still, however, report serious increases in civil conflict and the fact that most Iraqis came to see Shi'ite and Kurdish militias as a growing threat to security by the spring of 2006.3 Even the Coalition's partial count of Iraqi civilian casualties showed an increase from 10% of its national total in January 2006 to 13% in March 2006, and from 10% to 18% in Baghdad.