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Status of Climate Change Resilience in Malaysia – Research Findings and Recommended Action Plans

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Status of Climate Change Resilience in Malaysia – Research Findings and Recommended Action Plans STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE IN MALAYSIA – RESEARCH FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDED ACTION PLANS DR. SAIM SURATMAN Deputy Director General National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) STAKEHOLDER FORUM FOR INCORPORATING CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN THE NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES POLICY ACTION PLANS 27 OCTOBER 2014 PULLMAN HOTEL, PUTRAJAYA OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION 2 OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION 3 OVERVIEW Climate change resilience can be generally defined as the capacity for a socio-ecological system to: 1. absorb stresses and maintain function in the face of external stresses imposed upon it by climate change and 2. adapt, reorganize, and evolve into more desirable configurations that improve the sustainability of the system, leaving it better prepared for future climate change impacts. or it is the ability to survive and recover from the effects of climate change. From wikipedia and Rockefeller Foundation 4 Key Area of Probable OVERVIEW Vulnerabilities to Climate Change FLOODS HYDROELECTRIC POWER RIVER FLOW An increase Changes in flow decrease clean Changes in river in extreme power generation flow impacts water weather will supply, water lead to higher quality, fisheries river flow, and recreation runoff and activities flooding DROUGHTS Higher temperatures AGRICULTURE changes in Increase demand for precipitation will irrigation lead to droughts HABITAT Warmer river DELTA LEVEES temperatures Sea level rise will stress cold-water threaten Delta levees GROUNDWATER species Lower water tables due to hydrologic WATER QUALITY changes and greater Salt water intrusion from demand cause some WATER USE rising sea levels will shallow wells to go dry Demand for affect the Delta and agriculture, urban & coastal aquifers environmental water will increase 5 OVERVIEW Facts about Malaysia: . Country: consist of Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak; total land area – 330,000 km2 & bounded by a coastline 4800km; . Climate: characterized by uniform temperature, high humidity and copious rainfall mainly due to maritime influence; . Rainfall distribution: affected by the seasonal wind flow pattern coupled with the local topographic features; . Annual rainfall: 2,000mm to 4,000mm; much influenced by two monsoon periods occur between November-March and May-September; . Annual rainfall volume: 320 billion m3 for Peninsular Malaysia; 194 billion m3 for Sabah, and 476 billion m3 for Sarawak; and more than 150 river system; . Groundwater resources: (safe yield per year) 14,700 million m3 in Peninsular Malaysia, 5,500 million m3 in Sarawak, and 3,300 million m3 in Sabah . Main water supply: 97% sourced from rivers and reservoirs 6 Observed Climate Change in Malaysia . Increased in ambient Temperature: . Mean Annual Maximum Temperature: Highest changes based on 61 years record (1951-2012) is 0.7°C per decade (Source: MMD) . Rainfall . Increased rainfall intensity -> 1- hour rainfall intensity (2000-2007) increased by 17% compared to 1970s values (Source: JPS) . “Extremely High Intensity” rainfall (540mm/day) . Dec 2013: Massive floods in Kuantan & Kemaman . Flood damages ~ roads, bridges, slopes, schools, houses, agriculture (Source: NAHRIM) 7 OUTLINE OVERVIEW NAHRIM CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER R&D VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION MEASURES DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATION 8 Regional Hydro-climate Change Studies Peninsular Malaysia 2006: (2006) A regional hydrologic- atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called ‘Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) was developed East Malaysia 2010: (2010) A regional hydrologic- atmospheric model of East Malaysia called ‘Regional Hydro-climate Model of Sabah and Sarawak (RegHCM-SS) was developed; 9 LOCATION OF SELECTED DRAINAGE SYSTEM MUDA [3,330km2] KELANTAN [11,900km2] PERAK Guillemard Bridge [7,770km2] Syed Omar Jerangau Jam. Iskandar SELANGOR DUNGUN [1,450km2] [1,480km2] Rantau Panjang Temerloh PAHANG Jam. Sulaiman [19,000km2] KLANG [480km2] JOHOR [1,130km2] Rantau Panjang 10 DESIGNATED SUB-REGIONS OF SABAH AND SARAWAK SABAH SARAWAK “EXTENSION OF THE STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGIC REGIMES AND WATER RESOURCES OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA” 12 EXTENSION OF THE STUDY Regional Hydro climate Model (RegHCM-PM) 2006 : RegHCM-PM downscaled Canadian (~410km resolution) to fine spatial resolution (~9km) 2013/2014: revisit hydro-climate change projection for Peninsular Malaysia. 3 GCMs – MPI-ECHAM5, CCSM3 and MRI- CGCM2.3.2 GCMs Domain 15 Realizations , SRES A1B, B1, A2 and A1Fi 150 310km GRID Downscaling GCMs (~150-310km) to watershed scale spatial resolution of 6km Hourly time interval resolution 1ST Domain 54x54km GRID 2nd Domain 18x18km GRID 3rd Domain 6x6km GRID 13 LOCATION OF SELECTED DRAINAGE SYSTEM GIS INTERPOLATI ON 6KM GRID 334 GROUND GEOSPATIAL MAP OF OBSERVATION GROUND OBSERVATION RAINFALL RAINFALL 6KM STATIONS RESOLUTION 14 LOCATION OF SELECTED DRAINAGE SYSTEM Muda Kelantan Sg. Muda di Jam. Syed Omar Sg. Kelantan di Jam. Guillemard (Stn. No. : 5606410) (Stn. No. : 5721442) Dungun Sg. Dungun di Jam. Jerangau Perak (Stn. No. : 4832441) Sg. Kinta di Weir G di Tg. Tualang (Stn. No. : 4310401) Selangor Sg. Selangor di Rantau Panjang Pahang (Stn. No. : 3414421) Sg. Pahang di Lubok Paku (Stn. No. : 3527410) Kelang Sg. Klang di Jambatan Sulaiman (Stn. No. : 3116430) Linggi Sg. Liggi di Sua Betong Johor (Stn. No. : 2519421) Sg. Johor di Rantau Panjang (Stn. No. : 1737451) Muar Batu Pahat Sg. Muar di Buloh Kasap Sg. Lenik di Ladang Cha’ah (Stn. No. : 2527411) (Stn. No. : 2130401) . More extreme weather conditions in the future (2025-2050) may be expected since higher maximum and lower minimum rainfall are observed. Increase in maximum monthly rainfall of up to 51% over Pahang, Kelantan and Terengganu. Decrease in minimum monthly rainfall from 32% to 61% for all over Peninsular Malaysia. 1-DAY MAX. PRECIPITATION SG. KELANTAN SG. KEMAMAN SG. KUANTAN 1-day Max. precip.(mm) SG. JOHOR- MERSING Event on 3 December 2013 - Sg Kuantan Event on 3 December 2013 - Sg Kemaman 2006 & 2010 Study: Projected increase in mean surface temperature Kelantan PENINSULAR MALAYSIA Muda 2040 0.94oC 2070 2.02oC o Dungun 2100 2.72 C Perak SABAH 2040-2050 2090-2100 Min. 1.36oc 2.31oC o o Pahang Mean 1.51 C 3.27 C Selangor Max. 2.22oC 4.01oC Klang Johor Linggi Muar Batu Pahat SABAH & SARAWAK 2040-2050 2090-2100 Min. 1.36oc 2.31oC Mean 1.51oC 3.27oC Max. 2.22oC 4.01oC SARAWAK 2040-2050 2090-2100 Min. 1.08oc 2.03oC Mean 1.23oC 3.10oC Max. 1.61oC 3.24oC Projected changes in mean stream flows Kelantan PENINSULAR MALAYSIA Muda 2010-2040 8.27 m3/s 2040-2070 22.36 m3/s 2070-2100 53.82 m3/s Dungun Perak KEDAMAIAN (WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS) Pahang 2040-2050 2090-2100 Selangor Low Flow(m3/s) 1.75/(3.40) 3.18/(3.40) High Flow(m3/s) 218.9/(100.8) 148.4/(100.80) * (3.40) simulated historical period 1980-2000 Klang WATER SUPPLY WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS Johor Linggi Muar WATER SUPPLY Batu Pahat & FLOODS FLOODS WATER SUPPLY FLOODS WATER SUPPLY FLOODS & FLOODS SARAWAK R. (FLOODS) 2040-2050 2090-2100 Low Flow(m3/s) 2.91/(4.05) 6.16/(4.05) High Flow(m3/s) 89.42/(98.42) 133.91/(98.42) RegHCM-PM2 Simulated Average, Maximum and Minimum mean monthly discharge (cms) at selected watersheds, 1970-2000 and 2010-2100 periods Higher Lower Projected extreme Rainfall events: Peninsular Malaysia 800 8 1000 10 800 746 8 900600 9 6 848 TERENGGANUKELANTANPERAKJOHOR 719 546 900700 537 9 7 700 7 800 PAHANG4807015 Ibu Bekalan1839196 JKR Spg. Mawai – Kuala 829 8 800500 Taiping Sedili 607 600 8 5 562105249300384513033 Ldg. G.Kg BrinchangMenerong Kerilla 579 600 462.6mm – 24691 Jan 2004 6 700600 442856545mm478.5mm .7mm – –7 Nov15 Nov 1980 1994 7 6 929mm – 19 Nov 1988 652 700 552 7 495 632 C) ° 500 387 5 C) 400 4 ° 600 378 6 C) C) 500 5 ° ° 600 6 C) 352 555349 ° 346 340 519 453 513328 426 326 495 399 318 390 312 500400 378 303402 5 4 500 451 447 362 5 Day Rain (mm) Rain Day 400 347 4 - 300 370 370 370 3 Day Rain (mm) Rain Day 276 - 268 270 Day Rain (mm) Rain Day 413 318 347 - Day (mm) Rain Day 310 340 410 - 255 Day Rain (mm) Rain Day 393 1 389 302 - 400 376 294 290 382 4 400300 367 234311 280 4 3 Max. 1 Max. 275 349270 356 356362 226 350 351 349 289 ( Rise Temp. Realtive Max. 1 Max. 300 338260 344 332 331 3 Max. Max. 322 ( Rise Temp. Realtive Max. 1 Max. 267 313 312 ( Rise Temp. Realtive Max. 1 Max. 306 229 304 253 ( Temp.Rise Realtive 200 239 245 2( Rise Temp. Realtive 300 226 274 3 200 252 248261 245 2 194 204 200 182 2 131 202 200 126 131 131 2 200 2 100 88 1 100 68 76 69 1 54 5367 60 100100 68 43 1 1 100 55 56 26 39 22 1 1728 11 20 16 1128 11 30 49 17 244 20 32 19 3 22 23 19 15 15 12 1515 361 12 10 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 95 0 0 1 0 19 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 00 20250 20260 20270 20280 20290 20300 20310 20320 20334 20340 20410 20420 20433 20440 20450 20460 02047 02048 2049 02050 0 0 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 0 20252025 20262026 20272027 20282028 20292029 20302030 20312031 20322032Projection 20332033 20342034 Year 20412041 (2025 20422042 -2050) 20432043 20442044 20452045 20462046 20472047 2048 2049 2050 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032Projection 2033 2034 Year 2041 (2025 2042 -2050 2043) 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 ProjectionProjection Year Year (2025(2025 --2050)2050) Projection Year (2025 -2050) _____ Relative Temperature Rise 100-YEAR 1-DAY GREATEST RECORDED - - - - - - - - Frequency of Max 1D rainfall DESIGN RAINFALL MAX.
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