DOCSLIB.ORG

Knowing and Unknowing Reality – a Beginner's and Expert's Developmental Guide to Post-Metaphysical Thinking

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Knowing and Unknowing Reality – a Beginner's and Expert's Developmental Guide to Post-Metaphysical Thinking Knowing and Unknowing Reality – A Beginner's and Expert's Developmental Guide to Post-Metaphysical Thinking Tom Murray1 Table of Contents Preface 129 Introduction and Some Foundations 131 The Metaphysics to Come 131 A Developmental Perspective 136 The Meaning-making Drive and Unknowing 140 Magical, Mystical, and Metaphysical Thinking 144 Meaning-making in Magical, Mythical, and Rational Thinking 144 Mysticism and Logic 153 Metaphysical Thinking and Action Logics 155 Interlude: Three Historical Arcs 157 (1) The Rise and Decline of Rationality 158 (2) A Brief History of Belief Fallibility 160 (3) An Evolution in Understanding Ideas vs. the Real 162 A Philosopher's Knot – Knowing and Being Entangled 165 Is there a God? – Philosophers as Under-laborers 165 Two Truths: One Problem 167 Truth, Belief, Vulnerability, and Seriousness 171 Contours of the Real 178 What is Really Real? 178 Constructing the Real 182 Reification and Misplaced Concreteness 191 Embodied Cognition and Epistemic Drives 195 From 4th into 5th Person Perspective 195 Embodied Realism and Metaphorical Pluralism 201 Epistemic Drives 211 Phenomenology and Infinity 220 Conclusions and Summary 230 References 238 Appendix – Developmental Basics 244 1 Tom Murray is Chief Visionary and Instigator at Open Way Solutions LLC, which merges technology with integral developmental theory, and is also a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Massachusetts School of Computer Science. He is an Associate Editor at Integral Review, is on the editorial review board of the International Journal of Artificial Intelligence in Education, and has published articles on developmental theory and integral theory as they relate to wisdom skills, education, contemplative dialog, leadership, ethics, knowledge building communities, epistemology, and post-metaphysics. See www.tommurray.us [email protected] INTEGRAL REVIEW January 2019 Vol. 15, No. 1 Murray: Knowing and Unknowing Reality 129 Preface Depending on one's tolerance, or even love, for uncertainty and the unknown, "post- metaphysical thinking" can be either a fascination or a real downer. And by "interest in uncertainty and the unknown" I don't mean that effervescent attraction to the mystical, magical, esoteric, and unbelievable – I mean the blunt confrontation with how, when it comes down to it, the certainty that one holds for much of one's beliefs and knowledge is bewilderingly undeserved. To get the most out of this text it is best to consider how it applies to one's own knowledge, in addition to reading it as an exploration of the indeterminacies of knowledge in general. But for those truly interested in where the post-metaphysical arrow points, you know that it is about attitudes of deep curiosity, listening, and humility – skills of letting go, letting be, and letting come – that we long to see more of in our world. Here already the reader can sense how being "post-metaphysical" relates to spirituality. I have had a lifelong interest in the nature of knowledge, belief, and uncertainty. This philosophical curiosity paralleled my avocational experiences in various forms of conflict resolution and dialogue processes, alongside studies in cognitive psychology and philosophy. Amidst the confluence of perspectives found in real dialogue and deliberation one must come to terms with, as I call it in this text, "the sources of belief fallibility." How intelligent, well-informed, well-meaninged people can come to very different conclusions is a koan-like puzzle I was drawn into. I've been trying to let this puzzle solve me for over 40 years. I find myself immersed in both scientific communities and New Age (or "Cultural Creative") communities, and judge that conversations between them are rife with straw men and confirmation biases. This text is, in one sense, an outcome of my own internal process, over decades, of allowing the voices of these diverse perspectives to listen to each other with appreciation, empathy, and respectful criticism. I believe that the future of humanity requires spirituality; but that what passes for spirituality now is insufficient. My hope is that I have worked out a few knots of tension between these worldviews to support their integration for others. To do this I have attempted to make accessible some historically recent advances in philosophical and scientific thought that inform the humility with which we must hold our beliefs. This text began as an appendix within a larger book-length text that is in-process. The book is about "wisdom skills" from a developmental perspective, and explores the relationship between wisdom, "complexity capacity," and "spiritual clarity" – weaving in findings from cognitive and brain sciences. Among other things, it takes a post-metaphysical look at wisdom and spiritual development, and relates that to ego development. That book (draft) includes an appendix explaining my perspective on post-metaphysics. As this Integral Review special issue began to take shape, I decided to turn that appendix into a paper, and in the end, that became a large project in itself, in which I have combined most of what I have said on the topic of post-metaphysics, scattered among a dozen papers in the last decade. I must admit that post-metaphysics is a soapbox that I kept finding myself standing on in the middle of writing about other things, and this text is my attempt to get it all out of my system, package it up, and put it to rest (!). Though I have written many scholarly papers, the Wisdom Skills book is my first attempt to reach a broader audience. The text you are reading on post-metaphysics is similarly written – with INTEGRAL REVIEW January 2019 Vol. 15, No. 1 Murray: Knowing and Unknowing Reality 130 the intention to be understandable by anyone who likes to follow contemporary ideas about spirituality, philosophy, and human potential. Thus it does not have the density of references expected in an academically styled paper, and it explains some ideas at a level of detail that some readers of this journal may find lumbering or obvious. My aim is to bridge the gap between scholarly and popular texts to make the key ideas behind post-metaphysics meaningful and practical outside of academic and "integrally informed" communities of theory and practice. I hope the extra space I have taken to move carefully through many interconnected ideas is worth the journey for you. That being said, I have not held back any thoughts on the topic because they were too advanced, and the title "A Beginner's and Expert's Guide..." signifies that I am confident that advanced readers will find novel ideas and useful insights within. What began as an appendix and then an article has grown to the scope of a booklet or monograph. The chapters in this text are relatively stand-alone so that the reader may explore any part directly. For those who prefer having an overview in the Preface, I refer you immediately to the Conclusion, which is primarily a summary of the text’s themes. I should state up front that your author has not achieved a stable state of non-dual awareness or spiritual awakening according to any of the various definitions – yet in this text I dare to provide some commentary on the claims of some well-known spiritual teachers who are clearly advanced souls (or "realized" individuals). The reader may wonder how I assume the authority to write about many subjects, including non-duality, and offer opinions that differ from esteemed mystics and scholars. First, I try not to venture into any proposition for which I do not have at least an intuitive experiential taste of its validity (partial truth), though in some sections I am also treading into waters that may be over my head (it's hard to know how deep the water is when one is swimming). Second, I try hard to acknowledge the profound experiences of these teachers, and the deep source(s) from which their wisdom comes. What I am trying to tease out is a less metaphysical interpretation, or a more reflective and explicit metaphysics, of their claims – one that is appropriate for an open-ended, open-hearted, open-minded march into the 21st century. Thanks to modern internet technology, I am blessed to live in a time in which I can listen to online lectures, dialogues, and interviews with many dozens of "awake" individuals. I notice not only where they seem to agree, but also where they seem to disagree or offer different perspectives. I am grateful for living in an age when these resources are available, allowing me to have some understanding of a territory I could never have had access to alone, nor even with a small set of sage mentors. Those of us who listen attentively to many such teachers may even see novel pools of breadth, depth, and color that are unseen by teachers who stick to their own philosophical frameworks. It must be noted, as these teachers often do, that intellectual listening is no substitute for deep experience (or practice), yet I have found that hearing multiple perspectives that relate to my own experiences and intuitions deepens my understanding and gives me confidence in knowing where I have something to offer within the larger conversation. I have particularly enjoyed listening to Shinzen Young, Adyashanti, A.H. Almaas, Hari Alto, and Vinay Gupta, all of whom have expressed a non-dogmatic and open-ended curiosity about the nature of their own spiritual journeys. I am inspired by how much wisdom and depth they hold – even as they describe and delight in their own profound unknowing. As the reader will see in this paper, I am also indebted INTEGRAL REVIEW January 2019 Vol. 15, No. 1 Murray: Knowing and Unknowing Reality 131 to Jürgen Habermas, George Lakoff, Ken Wilber, Roy Bhaskar, and Dan Brown, whose writings and teachings have greatly informed me.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Gold Medal IPO 2012 Tadas Krisciunas, Lithuania
    Tadas Krisciunas (Litauen) - Goldmedaille bei der IPO 2012 in Oslo Topic Nr. 4: “And when we question whether the underlying object is such as it appears, we grant the fact that it appears, and our doubt does not concern the appearance itself but the account given of that appearance – and that is a different thing from questioning the appearance itself. For example, honey appears to us to be sweet (and this we grant, for we perceive sweetness through the senses), but whether it is also sweet in its essence is for us a matter of doubt, since this is not an appearance but a judgment about the appearance.” Sextus Empiricus, Outlines of Pyrrhonism I. 10 (2nd century AD). Among the schools of Hellenistic philosophy, one of much interest for anyone with an interest in epistemology flourished. Skeptics, as they were called, combining the negative1 arguments of the rival- ing schools of Stoics and Epicureans, tried to disprove2 the possibility of knowledge. One of the key works in the tradition of Hellenistic skepticism is Sextus Empiricus’ “Outlines of Pyrrhonism.” As the title shows, in the work, Sextus Empiricus tries to outline the skeptical tradition started by Pyrrho. In this essay, I am going to discuss a certain distinction made by Sextus Empiricus. The distinc- tion is between what the philosopher calls appearances and underlying objects (D)3. I will try to compre- hend the motivation for such a distinction and the logical consequences of it. However, I will try to give some arguments against this distinction, showing how the problems the distinction addresses can be dealt with in other ways.
    [Show full text]
  • The Divine Within: Selected Writings on Enlightenment Free Download
    THE DIVINE WITHIN: SELECTED WRITINGS ON ENLIGHTENMENT FREE DOWNLOAD Aldous Huxley,Huston Smith | 305 pages | 02 Jul 2013 | HARPER PERENNIAL | 9780062236814 | English | New York, United States The Divine Within: Selected Writings on Enlightenment (Paperback) Born into a French noble family in southern France, Montesquieu practiced law in adulthood and witnessed great political upheaval across Britain and France. Aldous Huxley mural. Animal testing Archival research Behavior epigenetics Case The Divine Within: Selected Writings on Enlightenment Content analysis Experiments Human subject research Interviews Neuroimaging Observation Psychophysics Qualitative research Quantitative research Self-report inventory Statistical surveys. By the decree of the angels, and by the command of the holy men, we excommunicate, expel, curse and damn Baruch de Espinoza, with the consent of God, Blessed be He, and with the consent of all the Holy Congregation, in front of these holy Scrolls with the six-hundred-and-thirteen precepts which are written therein, with the excommunication with which Joshua banned The Divine Within: Selected Writings on Enlightenment[57] with the curse with which Elisha cursed the boys [58] and with all the curses which are written in the Book of the Law. Huxley consistently examined the spiritual basis of both the individual and human society, always seeking to reach an authentic and The Divine Within: Selected Writings on Enlightenment defined experience of the divine. Spinoza's Heresy: Immortality and the Jewish Mind. And when I read about how he decided to end his life while tripping on LSD I thought that was really heroic. Miguel was a successful merchant and became a warden of the synagogue and of the Amsterdam Jewish school.
    [Show full text]
  • Constraints on an External Reality Under the Simulation Hypothesis
    Constraints on an external reality under the simulation hypothesis Max Hodak (Originally: 9 May 2020, Last Revised: 14 November 2020) Abstract Whether or not we are living in a simulation has become the subject of much lighthearted conjecture. Despite it being often considered an unfalsifiable question, here I present an argument that places strong contraints on the nature of any universe that contains ours as a \simulation," and I argue that these constraints are so strict that the most likely conclusion is that we are not living in a simulation. The crux of the idea is that almost any external world-simulation interface allows for Lorentz violations, and that these cannot be remedied in a simulation that implements quantum mechanics as we observe it. These arguments do not preclude all possibility that we are living in a simulation, but they impose significant constraints on what such a thing could mean or how the physics of the \external" universe must work. 1 Assumptions all practical purposes.1{3 The analysis that follows requires making three key Assumption A. A simulation should be somehow assumptions. accessible to its creators. Assumption C. The state of a valid universe Similarly, this is difficult to formalize fully gen- must be internally consistent at all times. erally, but for a quantum mechanical universe like ours with Hermitian observables, we can say some- Consistency is an essential property of any thing like the space of positive operator-valued mea- mathematically-describable physics; when we dis- sures available to the creators of the simulation is cover contradiction implied by our mathematics, we not empty; that is, they have some way to measure know that something must be wrong.
    [Show full text]
  • A Critical Engagement of Bostrom's Computer Simulation Hypothesis
    A Critical Engagement of Bostrom’s Computer Simulation Hypothesis Norman K. Swazo, Ph.D., M.H.S.A. Professor of Philosophy and Director of Undergraduate Studies North South University Plot 15, Block B, Bashundhara R/A Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh Email: [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract In 2003, philosopher Nick Bostrom presented the provocative idea that we are now living in a computer simulation. Although his argument is structured to include a “hypothesis,” it is unclear that his proposition can be accounted as a properly scientific hypothesis. Here Bostrom’s argument is engaged critically by accounting for philosophical and scientific positions that have implications for Bostrom’s principal thesis. These include discussions from Heidegger, Einstein, Heisenberg, Feynman, and Dreyfus that relate to modelling of structures of thinking and computation. In consequence of this accounting, given that there seems to be no reasonably admissible evidence to count for the task of falsification, one concludes that the computer simulation argument’s hypothesis is only speculative and not scientific. Keywords: Bostrom; simulation hypothesis; Heidegger; Dreyfus; Feynman; falsifiability 1. Introduction In a paper published in 2003, Nick Bostrom argued that at least one of several propositions is likely to be true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage, i.e., (fp≈0); (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof), i.e., (fI≈0); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation, i.e., (fsim≈1). (Bostrom 2003) Proposition (3) is characterized as the simulation hypothesis, thus only a part of Bostrom’s simulation argument.
    [Show full text]
  • Schwitzgebel May 12, 2014 1% Skepticism, P. 1 1% Skepticism Eric
    1% Skepticism Eric Schwitzgebel Department of Philosophy University of California at Riverside Riverside, CA 92521-0201 eschwitz at domain: ucr.edu May 12, 2014 Schwitzgebel May 12, 2014 1% Skepticism, p. 1 1% Skepticism Abstract: A 1% skeptic is someone who has about a 99% credence in non-skeptical realism and about a 1% credence in the disjunction of all radically skeptical scenarios combined. The first half of this essay defends the epistemic rationality of 1% skepticism, appealing to dream skepticism, simulation skepticism, cosmological skepticism, and wildcard skepticism. The second half of the essay explores the practical behavioral consequences of 1% skepticism, arguing that 1% skepticism need not be behaviorally inert. Schwitzgebel May 12, 2014 1% Skepticism, p. 2 1% Skepticism Certainly there is no practical problem regarding skepticism about the external world. For example, no one is paralyzed from action by reading about skeptical considerations or evaluating skeptical arguments. Even if one cannot figure out where a particular skeptical argument goes wrong, life goes on just the same. Similarly, there is no “existential” problem here. Reading skeptical arguments does not throw one into a state of existential dread. One is not typically disturbed or disconcerted for any length of time. One does not feel any less at home in the world, or go about worrying that one’s life might be no more than a dream (Greco 2008, p. 109). [W]hen they suspended judgement, tranquility followed as it were fortuitously, as a shadow follows a body…. [T]he aim of Sceptics is tranquility in matters of opinion and moderation of feeling in matters forced upon us (Sextus Empiricus, c.
    [Show full text]
  • The Modal Future
    The Modal Future A theory of future-directed thought and talk Cambridge University Press Fabrizio Cariani Contents Preface page vii Conventions and abbreviations xi Introduction xii PART ONE BACKGROUND 1 1 The symmetric paradigm 3 1.1 The symmetric paradigm 3 1.2 Symmetric semantics 4 1.3 The symmetric paradigm contextualized 10 1.4 Temporal ontology and symmetric semantics 14 Appendix to chapter 1: the logic Kt 17 2 Symmetric semantics in an asymmetric world 19 2.1 Branching metaphysics 20 2.2 Branching models 21 2.3 Symmetric semantics on branching models 27 2.4 Ways of being an Ockhamist 32 2.5 Interpreting branching models 32 PART TWO THE ROAD TO SELECTION SEMANTICS 39 3 The modal challenge 41 3.1 What is a modal? 42 3.2 The argument from common morphology 44 3.3 The argument from present-directed uses 45 3.4 The argument from modal subordination 48 3.5 The argument from acquaintance inferences 52 iii iv Contents 3.6 Morals and distinctions 54 4 Modality without quantification 56 4.1 Quantificational theories 57 4.2 Universal analyses and retrospective evaluations 59 4.3 Prior’s bet objection 60 4.4 The zero credence problem 61 4.5 Scope with negation 64 4.6 Homogeneity 66 4.7 Neg-raising to the rescue? 69 5 Basic selection semantics 73 5.1 Selection semantics: a first look 74 5.2 Basic versions of selection semantics 78 5.3 Notions of validity: a primer 81 5.4 Logical features of selection semantics 82 5.5 Solving the zero credence problem 83 5.6 Modal subordination 85 5.7 Present-directed uses of will 86 5.8 Revisiting the acquaintance
    [Show full text]
  • The Inception of Simulation
    The inception of simulation: a hypothesis for the role of dreams in young children Serge Thill ([email protected]) Henrik Svensson ([email protected]) Cognition & Interaction Lab, University of Skovde¨ PO BOX 408, 541 28 Skovde,¨ Sweden Abstract e.g. Shanahan 2006; Ziemke et al. 2005) of the functionality In the present paper, we present an argument and an initial of simulations and their neural substrate. model connecting research into the functional role of dreams However, current accounts of simulation do no address the with simulation theories. Traditionally, although theories that question of the phylogenetic origin and how simulations de- describe the refinement of simulations exist, the origin of these simulations is not considered in detail. Similarly, research into velop in the child. Hesslow (2002) emphasized that simula- the functional role of dreams tends to focus on adults, with less tion theory explains cognitive functions in terms of phyloge- regard to the dreams of young children. netically older brain functions, i.e., functions that evolved to Here, we suggest that a functional role of dreams in infants allow mammals to eat, move and reproduce. Thus, it might through to early childhood may be the inception of these simu- be possible to claim that part of the explanation can be off- lations. We show that the proposed model can present a unified explanation for functions of both the phenomenological expe- loaded to the explanation of the evolution and development of rience of dreaming as well as other aspects of brain activity perception and action processes themselves. However, while during sleeping, e.g.
    [Show full text]
  • The EFPA Test-Review Model: When Good Intentions Meet a Methodological Thought Disorder
    Perspective The EFPA Test-Review Model: When Good Intentions Meet a Methodological Thought Disorder Paul Barrett Cognadev Ltd., 18B Balmoral Avenue, Hurlingham, Sandton 2196, South Africa; [email protected]; Tel.: +64-21-415625 Received: 2 November 2017; Accepted: 27 December 2017; Published: 31 December 2017 Abstract: The European Federation of Psychologists’ Associations (EFPA) has issued sets of test standards and guidelines for psychometric test reviews without any attempt to address the critical content of many substantive publications by measurement experts such as Joel Michell. For example, he has argued that the psychometric test-theory which underpins classical and modern IRT psychometrics is “pathological”, with the entire profession of psychometricians suffering from a methodological thought disorder. With the advent of new kinds of assessment now being created by the “Next Generation” of psychologists which no longer conform to the item-based, statistical test theory generated last century, a new framework is set out for constructing evidence-bases suitable for these “Next Generation” of assessments, which avoids the illusory beliefs of equal- interval or quantitatively structured psychological attributes. Finally, with no systematic or substantive refutations of the logic, axioms, and evidence set out by Michell and others; it is concluded psychologists and their professional associations remain in denial. As with the eventual demise of a similar attempt to maintain the status quo of professional beliefs within forensic clinical psychology and psychiatry during the last century, those following certain EFPA guidelines might now find themselves required to justify their professional beliefs in legal rather than academic environments. Keywords: measurement; EFPA guidelines; assessments; psychometrics; standards 1.
    [Show full text]
  • A Practical Mathematical Solution to the Simulation Argument
    How Many Simulations Do We Exist In? A Practical Mathematical Solution to the Simulation Argument Hutan Ashrafian Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London and Institute of Civilisation Correspondence to: Dr Hutan Ashrafian Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, 10th Floor Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother (QEQM) Building, St Mary’s Hospital, Praed Street, London, W2 1NY, UK [email protected] Key words: simulation; probability; future; kardashev; humanity; civilization; computer; philosophy; existence Abstract The Simulation Argument has gained significant traction in the public arena. It has offered a hypothesis based on probabilistic analysis of its assumptions that we are likely to exist within a computer simulation. This has been derived from factors including the prediction of computing power, human existence, extinction and population dynamics, and suggests a very large value for the number of possible simulations within which we may exist. On evaluating this argument through the application of tangible ‘real-world’ evidence and projections, it is possible to calculate real numerical solutions for the Simulation Argument. This reveals a much smaller number of possible simulations within which we may exist, and offers a novel practicable approach in which to appraise the variety and multitude of conjectures and theories associated with the Simulation Hypothesis. Key words: simulation; probability; future; kardashev; humanity; civilization; computer; philosophy; existence Introduction The Simulation Argument (SA) has gained significant public momentum and prominence in the contemporary public zeitgeist. This is because it exquisitely captures the large range of possibilities offered by the range, depth and fidelity of digital technology to address fundamental existential questions of humanity.
    [Show full text]
  • A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument
    universe Article A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument David Kipping 1,2 1 Department of Astronomy, Columbia University, 550 W 120th Street, New York, NY 10027, USA; [email protected] 2 Center for Computational Astophysics, Flatiron Institute, 162 5th Av., New York, NY 10010, USA Received: 24 June 2020; Accepted: 31 July 2020; Published: 3 August 2020 Abstract: The Simulation Argument posed by Bostrom suggests that we may be living inside a sophisticated computer simulation. If posthuman civilizations eventually have both the capability and desire to generate such Bostrom-like simulations, then the number of simulated realities would greatly exceed the one base reality, ostensibly indicating a high probability that we do not live in said base reality. In this work, it is argued that since the hypothesis that such simulations are technically possible remains unproven, statistical calculations need to consider not just the number of state spaces, but the intrinsic model uncertainty. This is achievable through a Bayesian treatment of the problem, which is presented here. Using Bayesian model averaging, it is shown that the probability that we are sims is in fact less than 50%, tending towards that value in the limit of an infinite number of simulations. This result is broadly indifferent as to whether one conditions upon the fact that humanity has not yet birthed such simulations, or ignore it. As argued elsewhere, it is found that if humanity does start producing such simulations, then this would radically shift the odds and make it very probably we are in fact simulated. Keywords: simulation argument; Bayesian inference 1.
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Mental Simulation in Primate Physical Inference Abilities
    bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.14.426741; this version posted January 17, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC 4.0 International license. The role of mental simulation in primate physical inference abilities 1Rishi Rajalingham, 1 Aida Piccato, and 1,2 Mehrdad Jazayeri 1McGovern Institute for Brain Research, 2Department of Brain & Cognitive Sciences, 5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA Correspondence: [email protected] Acknowledgments 10 R.R. is supported by the Helen Hay Whitney Foundation. M.J. is supported by NIH (NIMH-MH122025), the Simons Foundation, the McKnight Foundation, and the McGovern Institute. Author contributions R.R. and M.J. conceived the study. R.R. collected the monkey data, A.P. collected the human data. R.R. 15 performed all network analyses. M.J. supervised the project. R.R. and M.J. wrote the manuscript. Competing interest The authors declare no competing interest. 20 Data availability The data used to generate the associated figures will be made available upon request. Code availability The code used to generate the associated figures will be made available upon request. 25 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.14.426741; this version posted January 17, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
    [Show full text]
  • Ignoramus, Ignorabimus? on Fundamental Uncertainty in Ecological Inference
    Ignoramus, Ignorabimus? On Fundamental Uncertainty in Ecological Inference Martin Elff Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author) Thomas Gschwend MZES, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany e-mail: [email protected] Ron J. Johnston School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK e-mail: [email protected] Authors’ note: We thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and sugges- tions on earlier version of this paper. R code and data to replicate analyses presented in this paper are available on the Political Analysis Web site. 1 ABSTRACT Models of ecological inference have to rely on crucial assumptions about the indiv- idual-level data-generating process, which cannot be tested because of the unavailabil- ity of these data. However, these assumptions may be not satisfied by the unknown data and this may lead to serious bias in the estimates relative to the true values of the data. The amount of bias, however, cannot be assessed without information that is unavailable in typical applications of ecological inference. We therefore construct a model that at least approximately accounts for the additional, non-sampling error that may result from possible bias incurred by an ecological inference procedure, a model that builds on the Principle of Maximum Entropy. By means of a systmatic simula- tion experiment, we examine the performance of prediction intervals based on this second-stage Maximum-Entropy model. The results of this simulation study suggest that these intervals of true values are at least approximately correct if all possible con- figurations of the unknown data are taken into account.
    [Show full text]