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Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 1 ISSN 0111-1736 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 152 Autumn 2018 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 2 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 151 Autumn 2018 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected] CONTENTS Page Foreword from our President 3 Kidson Medal 4 Conference 2018 4 Around the Regions 5-6 Pacific Climate Conference 6-8 AMOS/ICSHMO 2018 (Ben Nistor) 8-9 Summer: NIWA review 10-11 Notable events 11-18 Christchurch, Ben Tichborne 18-19 Pick of the clips 19-62 Your Committee 2018 President Sylvia Nichol Immediate Past President Daniel Kingston Secretary Katrina Richards Treasurer Gregor Macara Circulation Manager Lisa Murray Auckland VP Petra Pearce Hamilton VP Tim Gunn Wellington VP James Renwick Christchurch VP Jiawei Zhang Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston Journal Editor Nava Fedaeff with Jim Renwick Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt Website Liaison Stefanie Kremser General Committee Mike Revell, Michael Martens Hydrological Society liason Charles Pearson Co-opted by committee Ciaran Doolin Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 3 Dear Members We have just put out a call for nominaons for our presgious Kidson Medal, closing June 15 th . am very much hoping to see a number of nominaons come from the Society’s membership. am wring this in the week that marked the 50 th anniversary of the Wahine storm (otherwise known as e(-tropical cyclone Giselle). grew up in Wellington and, even though was very young at the me, sll have vivid memories of that storm. ,hen this week, another storm wreaked havoc across much of the country, with snow in the South sland, and rain, gales, lightning and tornadoes in the North sland. t serves to remind us of the importance of being prepared for these events through the best possible weather forecasng. .est wishes Sylvia Nichol, President of the Meteorological Society of New 0ea- land 10 1pril 1238 10 1pril 2018 Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 4 ,he Edward Kidson Medal7 call for nominaons (Deadline7 June 15, 2018) ,he Meteorological Society of New 0ealand ( nc) is now calling for nominaons for the Edward Kidson Medal. ,he award is made every two years and was 8rst awarded in 2003 ,he award is named in honour of Dr Edward Kidson, Director of the New 0ealand Mete- orological Service from 1227 to 1232. Kidson was instrumental in placing New 0ealand meteorology on a sound scien8c foong and is regarded as a key 8gure in the develop- ment of meteorology and climatology in this country. His own scien8c work in meteorology covered a wide 8eld and he had an internaonal reputaon for his papers on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulaon. His papers on New 0ealand's climate remained standard works for many years. ,he Edward Kidson Medal is awarded to the author of an outstanding recent scien8c paper published in a refereed scien8c journal, which7 advances the science of meteorology and/or climatology, or advances understanding of the in>uence of meteorology and/or climatology or other meteorological factors in other 8elds of scien8c or human endeavour or, conversely, the in>uence of other sciences or endeavours in meteorology and/or climatology, or reports on a signi8cant and novel scien8c, educaonal, social or economic applicaon of meteorology and/or climatology. Nominees for the Edward Kidson Medal should normally be New 0ealand residents but others who have a signi8cant connecon with New 0ealand, parcularly in the 8eld of the atmospheric sciences, will be considered. 1ll nominaons must either be by a cur- rent member of the Meteorological Society or include a wri?en endorsement by a cur- rent member. Rules for the consideraon and awarding of the Kidson Medal of the Meteorological So- ciety of New 0ealand can be found on our web site. Nominaons, with supporng state- ments and including copies of the relevant paper, should be sent to7 infoAmetsoc.org.nB ,he deadline for nominaons is June 15, 2018 ,he winner, if any, will be announced in Dece mber 2018 CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC N0 Hydrological Society D N0 Meteorological Society Joint Eonference S1FE ,HE D1,E 4 - 7 December 2018 Ehristchurch 1bstracts Open 15 1pril Registraons Open 1 May see conference website at h?p7//nBhsnBms2018.co.nB/ CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC 1ROIND ,HE REG ONS Meengs that MetService members were invited to during Summer7 Firtual hub/hui 7 14 February7 Deep South Ehallenge Seminar K5 14 February Drew Lorrey D Petra Pearce on historic weather and the N0 earth system model n this seminar, oM the back of the highly successful 1ERE7 1ntarcca conference, N W1 climate sciensts 1ndrew Lorrey and Petra Pearce take you back to the days when weather observaons about 1ntarcca and the Southern Ocean were recorded in black ink on parchment. Drew and Petra are part of a Deep South Ehallenge project which is tesng the ability of the N0 Earth System Model (N0ESM) to simulate reality, by comparing its results against modern and historical observaons. ,he N0ESM is designed to simulate how our climate will change over the coming dec- ades. t’s highly comple(, modelling everything from weather systems to changes in 1nt- arcc sea ice, ocean temperatures to stratospheric chemistry. f, in comparison with past climate and atmospheric data, the model accurately repli- cates the past, we’ll have increased con8dence that the model can accurately simulate future changes in climate. ,o gather comprehensive historical climate data, the project sees sciensts and histori- ans working together to recover meteorological observaons over the southern hemi- sphere made as far back as 1850. Rescued data are being archived and made publicly available through the nternaonal Surface Pressure Databank and N W1's database. Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 6 Dunedin 23 February7 NEondions leading to the unprecendented low 1ntarcc sea ice e(tent during the 2013 austral spring seasonN 1bstract77 ,he 2013 austral spring was characteriBed by the lowest Southern Hemisphere sea ice e(tent seen in the satellite record and coincided with anomalously warm surface waters surrounding most of 1ntarcca. ,wo disnct processes contributed to this event. First, the e(treme El NiOo event peaking in DecemberPFebruary 2015/2013 contributed to pronounced e(tratropical sea surface temperatures anomalies and sea ice e(tent anomalies in the eastern Ross, 1mundsen, and .ellingshausen Seas that persisted in part unl the following 2013 austral spring. Second, internal atmospheric variability of the Southern 1nnular Mode promoted the e(ceponal low sea ice e(tent in NovemberP December 2013. ,hese results suggest that a combinaon of tropically forced and inter- nal atmospheric variability contributed to the unprecedented sea ice decline during the 2013 austral spring, on top of a background of slow changes e(pected from greenhouse gas and oBone forcing. Paci8c Elimate Ehange conference February 2018 media reports 1 former New 0ealand prime minister has warned that climate change has the potenal to force a legal and po- lical upheaval that the world would underesmate Qat its perilR. New 0ealand would not be able to solve this problem alone and it would need levels of internaonal coopera- on Qnot yet achievedR. Fictoria's Disnguished Fellow of Law Sir GeoMrey Palm- er ... internaonal cooperaon needed to deal with Npeslence, war, famine and deathN. mage7 David Robie/PME nstagram Speaking in a keynote address at the Paci8c Ocean Eli- mate Eonference at ,e Papa Museum in Wellington yes- terday, Sir GeoMrey Palmer said a largely une(plored as- pect of climate change lay in the Qpotenal to force the revision of many fundamental and long accepted methods of doing government and organising its instuonsR. Q,he four horsemen of the 1pocalypse in the SbiblicalT book of Revelaon were peslence, war, famine and death. Elimate change has the capacity to produce those condions to a worrying e(tent in the future,R said Sir GeoMrey, now disnguished fellow in Fictoria Iniversity’s Faculty of Law. QWe underesmate at our peril the challenges that it will Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 7 bring and that it has brought already.R He cited riots and massive refugee >ows as some early e(amples. Sir GeoMrey said New 0ealand would need to ensure that the instruments of government P both domescally and internaonally P were adjusted to meet the challenges and this Qposes a formidable set of issuesR. Sir GeoMrey made the comments in an analysis of a recent landmark, but unsuccessful, legal challenge to the New 0ealand government over climate policy made by a 23-year-old law student, Sarah ,hompson. He also gave an in- depth overview of the state of environmental law in the country. CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC 1 prominent New 0ealand research scienst says sea level rise from the 1ntarcc ice sheet may be twice that of previous esmates. Fictoria Iniversity of Wellington's director of the 1nt- arcc Research Eentre ,im Naish was a speaker at the Paci8c Elimate Ehange Eonvenon, Wellington. Photo7 RN0 Paci8c/Dominic Godfrey He is working on a new project to improve esmates of sea level rise around New 0ea- land and the Paci8c. Dr Naish said the last assessment report of the ntergovernmental Panel on Elimate Ehange may have underesmated the 1ntarcc contribuon. He said a high emissions pathway could be even worse than formerly understood. NWe may have under-esmated the 1ntarcc contribuon by 1 metre, by the end of the century.
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