Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 1 ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 152 Autumn 2018

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 2 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 151 Autumn 2018 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected]

CONTENTS Page Foreword from our President 3 Kidson Medal 4 Conference 2018 4 Around the Regions 5-6 Pacific Climate Conference 6-8 AMOS/ICSHMO 2018 (Ben Nistor) 8-9 Summer: NIWA review 10-11 Notable events 11-18 Christchurch, Ben Tichborne 18-19 Pick of the clips 19-62

Your Committee 2018 President Sylvia Nichol Immediate Past President Daniel Kingston Secretary Katrina Richards Treasurer Gregor Macara Circulation Manager Lisa Murray Auckland VP Petra Pearce Hamilton VP Tim Gunn Wellington VP James Renwick Christchurch VP Jiawei Zhang Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston Journal Editor Nava Fedaeff with Jim Renwick Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt Website Liaison Stefanie Kremser General Committee Mike Revell, Michael Martens Hydrological Society liason Charles Pearson Co-opted by committee Ciaran Doolin

Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 3 Dear Members

We have just put out a call for nominaons for our presgious Kidson Medal, closing June 15 th . I am very much hoping to see a number of nominaons come from the Society’s membership.

I am wring this in the week that marked the 50 th anniversary of the Wahine storm (otherwise known as ex-tropical cyclone Giselle). I grew up in Wellington and, even though I was very young at the me, I sll have vivid memories of that storm.

Then this week, another storm wreaked havoc across much of the country, with snow in the South Island, and rain, gales, lightning and tornadoes in the North Island. It serves to remind us of the importance of being prepared for these events through the best possible weather forecasng.

Best wishes Sylvia Nichol, President of the Meteorological Society of New Zea- land

10 April 1968 10 April 2018

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 4 The Edward Kidson Medal: call for nominaons (Deadline: June 15, 2018)

The Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc) is now calling for nominaons for the Edward Kidson Medal. The award is made every two years and was first awarded in 2003 The award is named in honour of Dr Edward Kidson, Director of the New Zealand Mete- orological Service from 1927 to 1939. Kidson was instrumental in placing New Zealand meteorology on a sound scienfic foong and is regarded as a key figure in the development of meteorology and climatology in this country. His own scienfic work in meteorology covered a wide field and he had an internaonal reputaon for his papers on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulaon. His papers on New Zealand's climate remained standard works for many years. The Edward Kidson Medal is awarded to the author of an outstanding recent scienfic paper published in a refereed scienfic journal, which: advances the science of meteorology and/or climatology, or advances understanding of the influence of meteorology and/or climatology or other meteorological factors in other fields of scienfic or human endeavour or, conversely, the influence of other sciences or endeavours in meteorology and/or climatology, or reports on a significant and novel scienfic, educaonal, social or economic applicaon of meteorology and/or climatology.

Nominees for the Edward Kidson Medal should normally be New Zealand residents but others who have a signiﬁcant connecon with New Zealand, parcularly in the ﬁeld of the atmospheric sciences, will be considered. All nominaons must either be by a current member of the Meteorological Society or include a wrien endorsement by a current member.

Rules for the consideraon and awarding of the Kidson Medal of the Meteorological So- ciety of New Zealand can be found on our web site. Nominaons, with supporng state- ments and including copies of the relevant paper, should be sent to: [email protected]

The deadline for nominaons is June 15, 2018

The winner, if any, will be announced in Dece mber 2018 ======

NZ Hydrological Society & NZ Meteorological Society Joint Conference SAVE THE DATE 4 - 7 December 2018 Christchurch Abstracts Open 15 April Registraons Open 1 May see conference website at hp://nzhsnzms2018.co.nz/ ======

AROUND THE REGIONS Meengs that MetService members were invited to during Summer: Virtual hub/hui : 14 February: Deep South Challenge Seminar #5 14 February Drew Lorrey & Petra Pearce on historic weather and the NZ earth system model In this seminar, oﬀ the back of the highly successful ACRE: Antarcca conference, NIWA climate sciensts Andrew Lorrey and Petra Pearce take you back to the days when weather observaons about Antarcca and the Southern Ocean were recorded in black ink on parchment. Drew and Petra are part of a Deep South Challenge project which is tesng the ability of the NZ Earth System Model (NZESM) to simulate reality, by comparing its results against modern and historical observaons. The NZESM is designed to simulate how our climate will change over the coming dec- ades. It’s highly complex, modelling everything from weather systems to changes in Ant- arcc sea ice, ocean temperatures to stratospheric chemistry. If, in comparison with past climate and atmospheric data, the model accurately repli- cates the past, we’ll have increased conﬁdence that the model can accurately simulate future changes in climate. To gather comprehensive historical climate data, the project sees sciensts and histori- ans working together to recover meteorological observaons over the southern hemisphere made as far back as 1850. Rescued data are being archived and made publicly available through the Internaonal Surface Pressure Databank and NIWA's database.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 6 Dunedin 26 February: "Condions leading to the unprecendented low Antarcc sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season" Abstract:: The 2016 austral spring was characterized by the lowest Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent seen in the satellite record and coincided with anomalously warm surface waters surrounding most of Antarcca. Two disnct processes contributed to this event. First, the extreme El Niño event peaking in December–February 2015/2016 contributed to pronounced extratropical sea surface temperatures anomalies and sea ice extent anomalies in the eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen Seas that persisted in part unl the following 2016 austral spring. Second, internal atmospheric variability of the Southern Annular Mode promoted the exceponal low sea ice extent in November– December 2016. These results suggest that a combinaon of tropically forced and internal atmospheric variability contributed to the unprecedented sea ice decline during the 2016 austral spring, on top of a background of slow changes expected from greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

Paciﬁc Climate Change conference February 2018 media reports

A former New Zealand prime minister has warned that climate change has the potenal to force a legal and po- lical upheaval that the world would underesmate “at its peril”. New Zealand would not be able to solve this problem alone and it would need levels of internaonal cooperaon “not yet achieved”.

Victoria's Disnguished Fellow of Law Sir Geoffrey Palm- er ... internaonal cooperaon needed to deal with "peslence, war, famine and death". Image: David Robie/PMC Instagram Speaking in a keynote address at the Pacific Ocean Cli- mate Conference at Te Papa Museum in Wellington yesterday, Sir Geoffrey Palmer said a largely unexplored as- pect of climate change lay in the “potenal to force the revision of many fundamental and long accepted methods of doing government and organising its instuons”. “The four horsemen of the Apocalypse in the [biblical] book of Revelaon were peslence, war, famine and death. Climate change has the capacity to produce those condions to a worrying extent in the future,” said Sir Geoffrey, now disnguished fellow in Victoria University’s Faculty of Law. “We underesmate at our peril the challenges that it will

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 7 bring and that it has brought already.” He cited riots and massive refugee flows as some early examples. Sir Geoffrey said New Zealand would need to ensure that the instruments of government – both domescally and internaonally – were adjusted to meet the challenges and this “poses a formidable set of issues”. Sir Geoffrey made the comments in an analysis of a recent landmark, but unsuccessful, legal challenge to the New Zealand government over climate policy made by a 26-year-old law student, Sarah Thompson. He also gave an in- depth overview of the state of environmental law in the country. ======A prominent New Zealand research scienst says sea level rise from the Antarcc ice sheet may be twice that of previous esmates.

Victoria University of Wellington's director of the Ant- arcc Research Centre Tim Naish was a speaker at the Pacific Climate Change Convenon, Wellington. Photo: RNZ Pacific/Dominic Godfrey He is working on a new project to improve esmates of sea level rise around New Zea- land and the Pacific. Dr Naish said the last assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may have underesmated the Antarcc contribuon. He said a high emissions pathway could be even worse than formerly understood. "We may have under-esmated the Antarcc contribuon by 1 metre, by the end of the century. So add another metre to the 1 metre we're already predicng for global sea level," he said. Dr Naish echoes the stance of Samoa's prime minister that temperature rise should be limited to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels and that the 2 degrees commitment of the Pacific COP meeng is too high.

PCCC2018 team organisers with keynote speaker Sa- moa PM Tuilaepa (centre) and VUW’s Pala Molisa, James Renwick, Lu- amanuvao Winnie Laban and SPREP's Kosi Latu. Pho- to: RNZ Pacific / Dominic Godfrey Sciensts at a recent climate summit in New Zea- land's capital gave some stark warnings about the rapidly changing weather paerns in the Pacific. Their consensus was that the Pacific will face the harshest consequences of global warming before other parts of the planet.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 8 The climate change summit began as remnants of Cyclone Gita swept through Welling- ton. Acknowledging Gita, New Zealand's climate change minister James Shaw drew people's aenon to a previous category 5 storm which devastated Fiji. "So take Cyclone Winston two years ago. Officially it was a Category 5 cyclone, but the Met-Service experts tell me that it had much stronger winds than the 230 kilometre-an- hour upper limit of a Category 5 cyclone." Dr Renwick says the region can expect an acceleraon of extreme events and variability. "So you can have stronger and more prolonged droughts at the same me as you get heavier rainfall events when it's raining. So that idea that we get more extremes at either end of the rainfall scale is definitely there... more energy in the climate system. Warmer seas. Warmer air. So when you have a tropical cyclone it's likely to be more intense." The director of the New Zealand Climate Change Research Instute Dave Frame says tropical regions all face noceably accelerated change. But he says temperature increase is more pronounced in the Pacific because of the oceanic environment. Dr Frame cites coral bleaching and die-back caused by warming oceans as an example. The director of Victoria University's Antarcc Research Centre Tim Naish says warming oceans and connued global emissions could lead to a drasc increase of the Antarcc ice sheet's melt. "We may have under-esmated the Antarcc contribuon by 1 metre, by the end of the century. So add another metre to the 1 metre we're already predicng for global sea level." However his colleague James Renwick says if governments curb their emissions and keep warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial mes, this would save the West Antarcc ice-sheet. In the process, it would limit the contribuon to sea level rise from the ice- sheet's melt to a maer of cenmetres. "There's sll the glaciers melng and sea- waters expanding because it's warming so we would sll get something like half a metre of sea level rise over the next century but yes, if we don't, then it could be many mes that." The climate experts all echoed the sentiment of Samoa's prime minister that the 2 degree target of the Paris Climate Agreement is too high and action was needed to achieve the 1.5 degree ambition. Tuilaepa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi told the conference promises were not enough and that action was needed now.

STUDENT TRAVEL GRANT – AMOS-ICSHMO 2018 Travel Report by Ben Nistor In early February I parcipated in the joint 25 th Australian Meteorological and Oceano- graphic Society and 12 th Internaonal Conference for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (AMOS-ICSHMO 2018). This years conference was held at UNSW Syd- ney with over 600 parcipants coming together from a wide variety of locaons. As a Masters students at Victoria University of Wellington, under the supervision of Prof. James Renwick and Dr Suzanne Rosier from NIWA, it was neat to be able to present the ﬁndings of my research (and have a few days break) now that I am in the ﬁnal weeks of

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 9 wring up! During the conference I delivered an oral presentaon on ‘Detecng surface climate changes due to ozone depleon using “weather@home”’ in addion to presenng a poster on ‘The role of anthropogenic forcings in an extreme rainfall event in Christchurch, New Zealand’. These were both well received generang some great conversaons and I even managed to get tweeted by a couple of academics which was a first for me! A highlight of the conference was being able to listen to and meet the authors of numerous papers I have cited over the years. On the first day it came as a great surprise to re- alise that I had been listening to David Thompson, a leader in research on the surface climate influences of stratospheric ozone depleon, who I mistook to be just another Thompson given he looked much younger than I had ancipated and was talking on a different topic. A keynote talk I parcularly enjoyed was given by the disnguished coral reef scienst Prof. Terry Hughes who reported on the health and prospects for the Great Barrier Reef in our warmer world. Unfortunately, the prognosis is not great with 2/3rds of shallow reefs in the GBR experiencing unprecedented mortality and recurrent bleaching becoming the new normal for coral reefs. On a brighter note, the conference dinner was thoroughly enjoyed on a balmy sun kissed Sydney evening making for a wonderful occasion. Aer a short period of confusion around the wharf to assemble at we boarded the Sydney2000 from Circular Quay and took-in the stunning views of the city from the harbour. This conference dinner will certainly be a hard one to beat at future conferences. I sincerely want to thank the Meteorological Socie- ty of New Zealand for their financial support which made it possible for me to aend this conference. Ben with his poster on the role of anthropogenic forcings in an extreme rainfall event for Christ- church.

Our conference dinner awaits us (yes it was on that boat!).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 10 SUMMER 2018

New Zealand's hottest summer on record. Temperature Hottest summer on record. The nation -wide average temperature for summer 2017 -18 was 18.8°C (2.1°C above the 1981 -2010 from NIWA’s seven station temperature series which began in 1909). Summer temperatures were well above average (>1.20°C above the summer average) across all regions. Rainfall Highly variable from month to month and heavily impacted by two ex -tropical cyclones during February. Summer rainfall in the South Island was above normal (120 - 149%) or well above normal (>149%) over Canterbury, Marlborough, Nelson, and Tasman, and near normal (80 -119%) to below normal (50 -79%) around Otago, South- land, and the West Coast. North Island summer rainfall was above or well -above normal around Wellington and much of the upper North Island, and near normal or below normal over remaining North Island locations including Taranaki, Manawatu - Wanganui, Hawke’s Bay, and Gisborne. Soil moisture As of 28 February, soils were wetter than normal for the time of year across the upper North Island and the central and upper South Island. Soil moisture was near normal elsewhere, although parts of Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne, and Southland had slightly below normal soil moisture.

Overview Summer 2017 -18 was New Zealand’s hottest summer on record. Overall, the season was characterised by mean sea level pressures that were higher than normal to the east and southeast of New Zealand, and lower than normal over and to the west of the country. This pressure pattern delivered more frequent warm northerly and north- easterly winds than normal, consistent with La Niña conditions. Additionally, the per- sistence of high pressure over the Tasman Sea (another feature of La Niña) during No- vember and early December had prevented the mixing of cool, deeper ocean water with the surface resulting in anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the region. This combination of high SSTs and an increased frequency of northerly winds delivered unprecedented warmth to the country during summer. The nation -wide average temperature for summer 2017 -18 was 18.8°C (2.1°C above the 1981 -2010 summer average from NIWA’s seven station temperature series which began in 1909). This makes summer 2017 -18 the hottest summer on record for New Zealand, topping the historical record formerly held by the summer of 1934 -35 (which was 1.8°C above the 1981 -2010 summer average). The season got off to a hot start with nearly the entire country observing well -above average (>1.20°C of average) warmth during December 2017. This was the second - warmest December on record at 18.1°C (2.4°C above the 1981 -2010 December average from NIWA’s seven station temperature series) and 38 locations recorded record high mean December temperatures. Most of the country received below normal (50 -79% of normal) or well below normal (<50% of normal) rainfall during December. By the end of the month, soils were significantly drier than normal for the time of year across a large portion of the North Island, Tasman and northern West Coast, interior Canter- bury, and much of Southland and interior Otago. Near normal to above normal soil

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 11 moisture was observed along the east coast of the North Island, coastal Marlborough, and Westland to Fiordland. January 2018 was the hottest month on record for New Zealand (20.3°C; 3.1°C higher than the 1981 -2010 January average). All but a handful of stations recorded well above average temperatures throughout the country during January 2018 and 94 locations observed their highest mean January temperatures on record. Several tropical airmasses in January led to elevated rainfall levels throughout much of the top half of the South Island, as well as many areas of the North Island. Rainfall was below normal (50 -79% of normal) or well below normal (<50% of normal) for much of Southland, Otago, and Hawke’s Bay. February 2018 was characterised by the passage of ex -tropical cyclones Fehi and Gita which brought significant amounts of rainfall to parts of the country. Rainfall was well above normal (>149% of normal) across much of the upper North Island, Wellington - Wairarapa, the upper South Island, Canterbury and Otago. Elsewhere, rainfall was above normal (120 -149% of normal) or near normal (80 -119% of normal). In terms of temperatures, above average (0.51°C to 1.20°C above average) to well above average temperatures were observed across the North Island and upper South Island, near average (+0.50°C to -0.50°C of average) in the middle and lower South Island, and below average (0.51°C to 1.20°C below average) in parts of Otago and southern Canterbury.

Further highlights Fifty -four locations across New Zealand recorded their hottest summer on record, thrity -nine their second -hottest and nine their third -hottest. The highest temperature was 38.7°C, observed at Alexandra on 30 January The lowest temperature was 0.2°C, observed at Mt Cook (Airport) and Tekapo on 20 December. The highest 1 -day rainfall was 297 mm, recorded at Upper Takaka on 17 January. The highest wind gust was 165 km/hr, observed at Akitio on 19 December. Of the six main centres in summer 2017 -18, Auckland was the warmest, Dunedin was the coolest and driest, Wellington was the sunniest, and Hamilton was the wettest and least sunny. For further information, please contact: Mr Chris Brandolino, Principal Scientist Tel. 09 375 6335

NOTABLE WEATHER IN NZ – SUMMER 2017 -18

This summer was a memorable one, due to the record heat of December and January making it the warmest on record for NZ. Sea temperatures were also unusually warm, contributing to three major storms in January and February, the latter two being ex - tropical cyclones.

DECEMBER 1st - Thunderstorms in many inland areas of both islands. (continuation of weather pattern of late November) 2nd - Afternoon thunderstorms in inland North Island areas. 3rd - Very warm in many areas. New record December minimums are recorded at

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 12 Manapouri and Nugget Point. (both 16C) 5th - High maximums in many areas, with December records broken in Mt Cook Vil- lage (30C), Castlepoint (29C), and at Farewell Spit. (27C) However, a cooler southerly change affects lower South Island, dropping the very warm temperatures. 6th - Very warm day in west of South Island and many North Island places. New record December maximums are recorded at Whatawhata, Waikato (30C), and Rotorua. Other highs include 32C in Taumaranui, 27C in Rotorua, 26C in Stratford, and 25C in Waiouru. A few afternoon thunderstorms about South Island high country. 7th - Unusually warm in lower South Island, eg 31C maximum in Ranfurly (new De- cember record) and 28C at Manapouri. Wellington is also very warm with a 28C maximum at airport. 8th - Even hotter day in many parts of South Island, as flow tends northwesterly. Han- mer records new December record high of 34C, while Cheviot reaches 33C. 8th/9th - Heavy rain in Fiordland and South Westland. Slips on SH6 north of Haast on 9th. 13th - Heavy rain in parts of South Canterbury. This is welcome after a very dry spell, but causes flooding in Timaru. 18th - Downpours cause localised severe flooding in Bay of Plenty. Rotorua's eastern suburbs are worst affected, along with parts of Tauranga. Some thunderstorms elsewhere in upper North island, with a lightning strike bringing down power -lines on Auckland's North Shore. 19th - Gales in parts of lower South Island, especially Central Otago, with some damage reported in Alexandra. Wanaka records gust of 82 km/hr. 26th/ 27th - Heavy rain causes flooding in parts of Wellington region. Thunderstorms on Coromandel Peninsula. Cool southerly flow over NZ, with temperatures in sharp contrast to warmth of previous weeks. Light snow on some alpine areas, while light frosts are recorded in some (mostly) inland areas of South Island. 30th - Heavy rain in Fiordland, eg 127mm recorded at Secretary Island.

JANUARY 4th -6th - Deep low brings stormy weather to northern and central areas. (see details below) 10th - Heavy rain in parts of North Canterbury (42mm at Waipara) and Nelson area. (95mm at Appleby) 11th - Just a day after region is declared a drought, very heavy rain causes flooding in Westland, including both Greymouth and Hokitika. 197mm recorded in Hokitika (a new January record) and 113mm in Greymouth. Low cloud and fog cause disruption at Wellington Airport. 12th - Thunderstorms in many parts of North Island. A station near Te Awamutu records 36mm in one hour during a storm. Heavy rain also in northwest of South Island, with 125mm recorded at Farewell Spit. 13 th – Heavy rain continues in Golden Bay, closing several roads, including Coling- wood to Puponga. 14th -16th - Exceptionally warm in the far south. Invercargill reaches over 30C on all three consecutive days, unprecedented since its records began in 1905. Record Janu- ary maximums broken during this period include 35C at Dunedin Airport (16th), 32c in Lumsden (14th), 30C at Tiwai Point (15th), and 28C at Milford Sound. (15th - 20C minimum on 16th is also a new January record, so is Dunedin’s 21C at same time) 17th/18th - Heavy rain again in north of South Island, with some more slips and flooding in Tasman/Nelson area. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms in lower South Island

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 13 on 18th. 23rd - Thunderstorms in several North Island areas. Downpours affect some places, including Auckland, Whangarei, and Napier. Flash flooding hits North Shore and central Whangarei. During Hawkes Bay storm gusts reach 111 km/hr in Napier, the highest for January on record. 25th - 37C maximum at Waiau; 36C in Hanmer 25 th -31 st – Numerous stations record high minimums during this period, the highest being 24C at Ngawi, South Wairarapa, on 31 st . 26th - 36C maximum in Wanaka, a new January record. Thunderstorms in many northern and central areas, particularly about southern Marlborough, Bay of Plenty, and Waikato. 28th - Afternoon thunderstorms in interior high county of upper South Island. Light- ning strikes ignite fires near lakes Sumner and Tennyson. 30th/31st - Very hot day in east of South Island and Wairarapa. Record January maximums include 37C in Clyde, Cheviot, and Waiau (both on 30th), 36C in Hanmer, 35C in Balclutha (31st), 35C in Masterton (31st), and 33C in Oamaru. (31st) 31st - Northerly gales in some parts of lower South Island, eg 83 km/hr gust recorded in Wanaka.

FEBRUARY 1st -3rd February - Stormy weather resulting from ex -tropical cyclone Fehi causes damage in many areas. (see details below) 4th/5 th – Some further thunderstorms in north of North Island. 5th /6 th – Fresh snow on southern South Island ranges in a cold southwesterly flow. On- ly 12C maximum at Secretary Island on 5 th . 10 th /11 th – Thick fog causes disruption at Wellington Airport. 11 th – Heavy rain in some areas exposed to the north and west. Nelson region especially affected, with the Maitai River overflowing in Nelson and slips affected roads in the area. 109mm rain recorded at Takaka. Some surface flooding in Whangaparoa, North Auckland. Unusually humid over most of NZ, with dew point temperature of 22C in Wellington at 6pm. This is the (Kelburn) station’s highest on record. 12 th /13 th - Warm night in many parts of North Island under cloud and a light north to northeast flow. Minimums are in the low 20s in many areas, with numerous place recording new January records. 16 th – Heavy rain in southwest of southwest, due to front in northwesterly flow. 125mm recorded at Manapouri. Same airflow brings very warm temperatures to areas east of the mountains, including a 32C maximum at Mt Cook Village. 17 th – Very warm 28C maximum in Hawera, under a warm north to northwest flow. 18 th – Thunderstorms with heavy rain on South Island West Coast. Some 9000 lightning strikes observed. Slips in several places along SH6 between Westport and Haast.

20 -22nd - Ex -tropical cyclone Gita brings stormy weather to areas (see details below) 24 th /25 th – Heavy rain in Fiordland, with 281mm recorded at Milford Sound. Tourists have to be helicoptered out from Doubtful Sound, after a slip on Wilmot Pass Road strands them there. Cool southerly flow, with daytime temperatures about 10C lower than the previous day, when there was a northwesterly flow.

MAJOR EVENTS 4th -6th January - Deep low brings stormy weather to northern and central areas

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 14 A deep low of subtropical origin (off southeastern Queensland) swept southeast over NZ during this period, with heavy rain and gales affecting many areas, especially in the North Island. Abnormally high tides and storm surges also caused significant damage about northern coasts.

The deep low moved from the North Tasman Sea onto the upper North Island late on the 4th and then moved slowly southeast to be centred over southern Hawkes Bay by the end of the next day.

Severe gales accompanied the low in northern and central areas; initially north to northeast on the 4 th , but tending southwesterly over the North Island on the 5 th . The northern North Island was particularly hard hit by the winds, which downed many trees and power -lines. A woman was killed by a falling tree in Rotorua. Record high gusts for January were recorded in Rotorua (91 km/hr on 5 th ), Motu (104 km/hr on 5th ), Dargaville (109 km/hr on 5 th ), Whakatane (95 km/hr on 5 th ), and Kaikohe. (89 km/ hr on 4 th ) Heavy rain fell in the north of the North Island, with 62mm recorded at Whatawhata, near Hamilton. Surface flooding affected some areas, most notably the Coromandel Peninsula. SH25 Thames -Manaia and SH2 through the Waioeka Gorge were closed by slips for a time.

While wind and rain caused damage, significant coastal devastation was also caused by the combination of low pressure, king tides, along with the very strong winds. These resulted in storm surges flooding several areas. The worst affected areas were near Auckland and about the Firth of Thames. In these areas, the sea washed over the shore to damage roads and properties. The small town of Kaiaua was devasted by the surge, with mud and debris lying everywhere.

Overnight 5 th /6 th , the low moved southeast to lie to the east of Marlborough by the morning of the 6 th . This resulted in southerly gales and more heavy rain from about Banks Peninsula to Cook Strait. SH1 north and south of Kaikoura was closed by slips, and there was some flooding of the lower Heathcoate and Avon Rivers in Christ- church. By contrast, a side effect of this storm system was a fohn southeasterly flow over the lower South Island West Coast, with Haast recording a new January record high of 29C. Conditions eased during the day over NZ as the system moved further offshore.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 15

Mean sea -level analyses for 1pm NZDT 4th January to 1am NZDT 7th January in 12 - hour steps are shown here. ======

1st -3rd February - Stormy weather resulting from ex tropical cyclone Fehi causes damage in many areas.

Former tropical cyclone Fehi moved into the North Tasman Sea during the 31st, with its southern edge combining with a trough moving in from the southwest. This storm then crossed NZ, bringing extensive damage due to wind, rain, and coastal storm surges.

During the 1st, the deep low swept southeast across the South Island to lie southeast of Otago by the evening. The system brought a period of very stormy weather to many areas, this time also affecting areas further south than the previous big storm. The South Island West Coast was particularly hard hit by the wind and rain, with widespread slips, flooding and fallen trees. 115 tourists were stranded between Haast and Fox Glacier. Like the January storm in northern areas, low pressure, wind -driven seas and high tides caused severe storm surges along the coasts. The Nelson area was also adversely affected by the storm surges. High gusts recorded on this day included 154 km/hr in Kaikohe (a new February record), 137 km/hr in Kelburn, Wellington, and 85 km/hr at Blenheim Airport.

As the low moved further southeast during the day, a strong, colder southerly developed over the south of the South Island, with heavy rain and gales developing in these areas too. Totals included 59mm in Dunedin, 51mm in Wanaka, and 41mm in Ranfur- ly. Further north, Canterbury and Kaikoura were sheltered from the rain in the northwesterlies, but the winds reached gale, with gusts. Temperatures became very warm with maximums pushing into the mid -30s. (34C maximum in Kaikoura – a new

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 16 February record) The combination of heat and wind helped fan several small fires.

Overnight 1 st /2 nd , the low moved further away to the east, with a cool southerly flow spreading over the country. Fresh snow dusted South Island mountains, with about 5cm on Mt Hutt. A small secondary low developed just off Buller. The flow gradually weakened during the 3 rd , but the small low moved further north to lie to the west of the North Island. This brought thunderstorms to several western parts of the North Island. A particularly heavy downpour lashed the Waitakere Ranges of West Auckland late in the day, with flash flooding inundating several homes at Piha and drowning two trampers as they tried to cross a swollen river.

Mean sea -level analyses for 1pm NZDT 1 February NZDT to 1am NZDT 4 February in 12 -hour steps are shown here.

20 -22 February - Ex -tropical cyclone Gita brings stormy weather to many areas

The third major storm originating from lower latitudes to affect NZ this summer caused severe damage to many areas due to very heavy rain and severe gales.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 17

Gita had already swept through the western Pacific, with damage resulting in parts of Samoa, Tonga, and the southern -most Fijian islands. It then swung south into the North Tasman Sea during the 18 th and 19 th , with warnings being issued for many parts of NZ.

By the 20 th , as an ex -tropical low and mixing warm sub -tropical air from the north (new January records with 22C minimums in Kaitaia and Kerikeri) and cooler air from a southerly change from the south, Gita moved onto NZ. The worst of its wind and rain affected central NZ. Torrential rain affected two main areas – Northwest Nel- son/Golden Bay and the Kaikoura Coast. Both these areas suffered from widespread flooding and slips, with SH60 over the Takaka Hill and SH1 both north and south of Kaikoura both closed for many days. An exceptionally high total of 202mm was recorded in Kaikoura over both days, more than the combined total of the previous three months. 53mm of this fell in just one hour between 4 -5pm on the 20th, a record hourly total for the station. In Motueka 148mm was recorded on the same day.

Taranaki was lashed by particularly severe northwesterly gales, causing widespread damage. Falling trees and power -lines resulted in road closures, power -cuts and other damage. The significant was a tree falling onto and rupturing a pipeline, which disrupted water supplies to New Plymouth. Gusts reached 130 km/hr in Hawera and 104 km/hr in New Plymouth, both new records for February. Gales affected many other areas, with gusts of 109 km/hr in Whanganui, 95 km/hr at Farewell Spit, and 82 km/hr in Dargaville.

Meanwhile, a strong south to southeast flow to the south of the low resulted in unsea- sonably low daytime temperatures in the east of the South Island on the 20 th and 21 st . Record low maximums of only 10C were recorded in Oamaru (same as July’s average maximum), Cromwell, Alexandra, and Roxburgh on 21st. Even colder on the same day were 6C in Tekapo and Mt Cook Village, and 9C in Queenstown and Wanaka. Not sur- prisingly, the mountains in these areas received an unseasonable dumping of snow, with 50cm recorded at the Remarkables Ski -field, and a dusting at the summit of the Crown Range. As well as about Kaikoura, heavy rain also caused some flooding in Canterbury, with a bridge washed out between Geraldine and Fairlie, though only mi- nor surface flooding affected Christchurch. Record high rainfall totals of 158mm in Akaroa and 117mm were recorded on the 20 th .

Overnight 21 st /22 nd , the storm system moved away to the southeast, leaving a cool south to southwest flow and easing weather over the country. However, five houses had to be evacuated on the Kapiti Coast, due to flooding resulting from high tides and lin- gering heavy swells during the early hours of the 22 nd .

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 18

Mean sea -level analyses for 1am NZDT 20 January to 1pm NZDT 22nd January in 12 - hour steps are shown here. ======MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH – SUMMER 2017 -18

DECEMBER The month was dominated by very warm, settled weather, but a few brief cooler damp spells. Temperatures were well above normal, reaching into the mid -30s on the 8th. By contrast, cooler northeasterlies brought some rain on the 13th, and cold southerlies (following a very warm Christmas Day) also delivered showers on the 26th, along with a dusting of snow on the Alps.

JANUARY This was another very warm month, but unlike December, was also notable for two spells of heavy rain. These rainfall events – on the 5 th and 10 th /11 th , pushed the monthly total to above normal. The 5 th was a particularly wet day, with some flooding in low -

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 19 lying areas, while there were also gale southerlies on that day. However, there was virtually no rain during the second half of the month. Some days reached into the 30s.

FEBRUARY Like January, February was both warmer and wetter than normal, with two rainfall events contributing much of the total. These were due to ex -tropical cyclones Fehi and Gita affecting NZ on the 1 st /2 nd and 20 th /21 st respectively. The first storms brought gale force and hot northwesterlies on the 1 st (maximums into the mid -30s), but also colder southerlies on the 2 nd and 20 th /21 st , with snow on the Alps on both occasions. The 11 th and 26 th were also wet days, but not nearly as much rain fell.

======] WEATHER AND CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS IN THE MEDIA

Sizzling summer to spark sprinkler ban 1 Dec 2017 Janine Rankin/Stuff

DAVID UNWIN/STUFF The humble umbrella is being used for protection against the sun, not the rain, as Palmerston North continues to bask in the heat. A scorching summer has Palmerston North poten- tially facing its most serious water shortage in years. The connuing hot, dry weather will see residents told to put the sprinklers and irrigation systems away from Friday. (Abridged). https://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu -standard/news/99430934/sizzling -summer -to -spark -sprinkler -ban

Tips for surviving the sweltering heat 4 Dec , Otago Daily Times TOP TIPS TO STAYING COOL: 1. Stay hydrated throughout the day. Simple advice, but mum is always right - drink lots of water to ensure you stay hydrated. 2. Freeze. It might sound a bit quirky, but putting your sheets or pillow in the fridge is said to be very effective. Take them out when you're ready for bed and enjoy a cool sleep. 3. Keep the curtains, particularly in the bedroom, closed during the day. It will keep the sun out. Open the windows in the evening when the air is cooler. 4. Fill a hot -water bottle up with cold water instead and place it in the freezer. Place it under your feet or use it when you go to sleep. If it's too cold, cover it with a light cloth or hand towel. 5. Place a bowl of ice in front of an electric fan for even cooler air. FOR PETS:

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 20 6. Take your pet to a groomer or vet for a haircut for the summer. Then they can enjoy exercise times rather than lying around trying to stay cool all day. 7. Frozen treats: Rubber chew toys that can be filled with treats can be frozen overnight for your fur friend. Make ice blocks by freezing a bowl of water with dog bis- cuits or other treats inside. The frozen goodies act not only as a treat but as an activi- ty for your pet. 8. Take your pet for a swim. Simple and fun. (Abridged). https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/tips -surviving -sweltering -heat

Supermoon 2017: ferries cancelled, king tides to hit NZ 5 Dec Anna Loren /Stuff Ferries will be cancelled and higher -than -normal king tides are expected as 2017's only supermoon looms large in New Zealand skies. In Auckland, some afternoon ferry services between downtown and Half Moon Bay would be replaced by buses on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday due to lower than normal tides. "The supermoon causes both higher and lower tides, which means that when it's at its lowest the water level will not be high enough for ferry services to run at Half Moon Bay," Auckland Transport spokesman James Ireland said. A supermoon occurs when a moon is both full and at the point in its orbit when it is closest to Earth, which means it will appear bigger than normal. It will also appear brighter as the Earth is nearly at its closest to the sun. The effect of a supermoon is a greater gravitational pull on the ocean, which results in extreme tides and a "king tide" – the highest tide of any given year. However, MetService meteorologist Kyle Lee said the tide caused by the supermoon's pull would only be "a few centimetres" higher than a normal king tide, which occurred about four or six times a year. "The difference you'll see between the two is quite negligible ... it's not going to be something dramatic." While this supermoon is 2017's one and only, 2018 will start with two in succession. Supermoons are set to occur on January 2 and 31. (Abridged). https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/99494659/supermoon-2017 -ferries -cancelled -king - tides -to -hit -nz

New Zealand's sea temperature swing largest in world 5 Dec 2017 Newshub

The water temperature in the Tasman Sea is well above normal - a whopping 6degC more than average for the start of December. The increase has been driven by a La Nina climate system, and scien- tists say a continued warming of our ocean could permanently damage our fisheries and lead to tropical cyclones. NIWA meteorologist

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 21 Ben Noll says the "very impressive marine heatwave" has led to the largest deviation from normal temperatures in the world. The warmth is more than just skin -deep. Temperature anomalies of 1degC to 3degC are being found in the top 200 metres. NIWA climate scientist Nava Fedaeff says this is due to the lack of storms, which churn up the ocean and reduce temperatures. (Abridged). http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new -zealand/2017/12/new -zealand -s-sea -temperature -swing -largest -in -world.html

Insurance payouts: Most expensive weather events of 2017 6 Dec, 2017 Insurance companies have faced record payouts for weather-related damage across New Zealand in 2017 - and they say the situaon will only get worse with climate change. Insurers have this year made losses of more than $242 million from weather events - including several large-scale ﬂoods, ﬁres and cyclones - making it their most expensive year on record, according to the New Zealand Insurance Council. Insurance premium are expected to rise . MOST EXPENSIVE WEATHER EVENTS OF THE YEAR SO FAR: Cyclone Debbie - April - $91.5m in insurance paid out

Two houses on Cambridge Rd have lost a part of their backyard to slips caused by heavey rain from Cyclone Debbie and Cook. Photo / John Bor- ren

Upper North Island ﬂoods - March - $61.7m Fire crews assist people from a flooded building as a massive amount of rain caused flooding in the town centre of New Lynn, Auckland. Photo / Dean Purcell. South Island ﬂoods - July - $31.1m

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Flooding in Oamaru as a winter storm brings heavy rain and floods to the South Is- land. Photo / Waitaki Aquatic Centre

Port Hills ﬁres - February - $18.3m General view of the devastation caused by the bushfires that blazed through the Port Hills overlooking Christ- church. Photo / Alan Gibson

Cyclone Cook - April - $17.2m Cyclone Cook aftermath in Napier: About 10 trees along McDonald Street Napier were uprooted crushing two cars. Photo / by Paul Taylor (Abridged). http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ news/article.cfm? c_id=1&objectid=11954107

Wellington welcomes arrival of rain, after almost 30 days without it 13 Dec Tina Cummings and Jason Higgins/ Dominion Post The pavements are wet, the sky is full of clouds – it's back to the Wellington we used to know.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 23 After almost 30 days without rain, the dry spell finally broke on Wednesday. Metservice recorded 4mm of rain at Wellington Airport by 8pm and, as the rain began falling in the city, Wellingtonians took to social media to express their gratitude.

SUPPLIED Willis St on Wednesday.

KEVIN STENT/STUFF The Hu River, which resem- bles more of a creek at the moment. (Abridged). https://www.stuff.co.nz/ dominion -post/ news/99803636/Wellington - welcomes -arrival -of -rain - after -almost -30 -days - without -it

Lion Breweries struggles to meet demand for beer in hot weather 14 Dec, 2017 Aimee Shaw / NZ Herald

Hot weather has sent beer con- sumpon skyrockeng - causing havoc for brewing giant Lion, which is struggling to keep up with demand. The company has fallen behind on deliveries across the North Island and sales are up 20 per cent on last year, Lion spokeswoman Gene- vieve O'Halloran said. (Abridged). http://www.nzherald.co.nz/ business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11959418

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 24

Whanganui has experienced a record 40 dry days 18 Dec, 2017 Wanganui Chronicle

Whanganui's current dry spell is longer than that which caused a drought in 2013. Summer has only just begun, but Whanganui's summer is already a record -breaker. As of 9am Monday, Whanganui has experienced 40 dry days in a row - beating its previous record of 38 days. A dry day is one in which less than 1mm of rain has fallen in a 24 -hour period. (Abridged). http://www.nzherald.co.nz/wanganui -chronicle/news/article.cfm? c_id=1503426&objectid=11961798

Late Warning on Storm 19 Dec Sunlive

City council staff and contractors had little warning on the intensity of last night's thunderstorm that resulted in surface flooding across parts of the city. Cameron Road flooded from 15 th Avenue through to Greer- ton, and there were reports of flooding on 21 st Avenue, 15 th Av- enue and Fraser Street. But it wasn't until 7.30pm that MetService issued a thunderstorm warning for Tauranga, based on its live radar. “This meant that the storm was already underway and that there was a higher risk of intense rainfall,” says the city council's emergency manager Paul Baunton. “When this occurs, we don't get the opportunity to pre -clear drains or ponding hotspots. During the storm, our contractor was very active in responding to areas where flooding was occurring and staff were supporting them. The contact centre increased its staff to manage the additional calls.” The thunderstorm watch in place during the afternoon was for the North Eastern part of the North Island and didn't give any certainty, apart from stating weather conditions existed that might cause thunder, says Paul. (Abridged). https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/169323 -late -warning -on -storm.html

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 25 MetService challenges council claim 21 Dec Sunlive /Andrew Campbell MetService corporate affairs general manager Jacqui Bridges is taking issue with Tau- ranga City council claims that it received a late warning for Monday evening's thunderstorm, which resulted in blocked drains and surface flooding across parts of the city. In a press release attributed to the city council emergency manager Paul Baunton, the council says it wasn't until 7.30pm that MetService issued a thunderstorm warning for Tauranga based on its live radar. It meant the storm was already underway and there was a higher risk of intense rainfall. Jacqui says severe thunderstorm watches and warnings work quite differently from watches and warnings for broadscale severe weather. She shared a link to the MetService blog which explains the difference between outlook, watch and warning. “Severe thunderstorm watches are issued up to 12 hours in advance for potential severe thunderstorms, giving people a heads -up that the weather conditions look favour- able for the development of local-scale severe weather in the area(s) covered in the watch,” says Jacqui. “Because the identification of severe thunderstorms takes place as they are forming, local -scale Warnings are only issued when severe thunderstorms have been identified and are trackable by our weather radar. “This is standard practice across most National Weather Services. Typically, severe thunderstorm warnings are issued for the next hour , and are updated as the cell is tracked through the area.” According to MetService's page the time to prepare for thunderstorms, pre -clearing drains and ponding hotspots, is during the ‘Watch'. MetService issued its severe thunderstorm watch 12 hours before the thunderstorm event happened. The severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 07.15pm when a severe cell was detected. The response from Tauranga City Council is that on Monday afternoon, council staff were satisfied with their assessment of the possible thunderstorm based on the information they had. “Each event that occurs provides an opportunity for improvement and we will review our thunderstorm preparations,” says Tauranga City Council com- munications manager Aimee Driscoll. (Abridged). https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/169491 -metservice -challenges -council -claim.html

Hey MetService, you've ruined Christmas: 20 Dec 2017/Stuff ROBERT KITCHIN/STUFF MetService meteorologist Lisa Murray talks through the forecast process for Christmas Day.

Predicting the country's Christmas Day weather begins 10 days before.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 26

It's not unheard of for the MetService to receive angry phone calls if someone's Christmas Day weather turns to custard. Meteorologist Lisa Murray has experienced it first -hand, when a woman called to complain her family barbecue had been ruined by rain. With so much riding on Christmas Day, there is no day more important for the forecasters to get it right. When it comes to getting forecasts wrong, MetService meteorologist Lisa Murray says her family are her worst critics. Forecasting begins 10 days before Christmas. "At 10 days out, we get three models into the MetService, we look at which one's doing the best, and it makes an automated forecast." The next forecast comes at six days out. This is where the meteorologists come in. "We run in -house models, adding in that knowledge and expertise, comparing three global models, and coming up with a forecast of what is most likely to happen." By three days out, more information is available, and the ability to predict accurately goes up. "By Christmas Day we are looking at observations on radar, so you can track the rain. (Abridged). https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/100034291/hey -metservice -youve -ruined -christmas - the -importance -of -getting -the -forecast -right

Heavy downpours cause flooding chaos in Wellington 26 Dec, 2017 New Zealand Herald An aggressive front moving across the North Island today is keeping central region emergency services busy with flash flooding. Fire and Emergency New Zealand spokesman David Meikle said crews had had about a dozen calls for help with flooded buildings and properes this morning.

"They're all related to surface ﬂooding, which has been caused by this heavy rain." MetService says on Twier the capital's airport experienced 15.8mm of rain in one hour this morning, "more than the last 48 days added together". (Abridged). hp://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arcle.cfm?c_id=1&objecd=11965959 https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one -news/new -zealand/flooding -in -wellington -after -more -rain - than -last -48 -days -added -together -falls -airport White Boxing Day on southern ski field

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 27 27 Dec , Otago Daily Times

Mt Hutt webcam. Photo: NZ Ski Snow is already falling on a Canter- bury ski field just a day after parts of the same region basked in record high temperatures. Snow started to fall at Mt Hutt on Boxing Day and continues today. The same icy southerly blast is about to bring a coating to the Cen- tral Plateau tomorrow when strong winds and are snow expected on the volcanic peaks. MetService forecaster Cameron Coutts said strong winds would whip through the mountains "We are talking a dusting on the Central Plateau tomorrow. There's quite a low freezing level. People will get to see a bit on the Tongariro Cross- ing." He said snow in Southern Alps and Central Plateau wasn't unheard of in the middle of summer. (Abridged). https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/white -boxing -day -southern -ski -field

2017 - the year where four seasons were in each season 27 Dec, 2017 NZ Herald The year's weather was crazy as snow fell in summer and winter was one of warmest ever. January's icy blast We were just a few weeks into the new year when the first major storm struck the country. A weather bomb wreaked havoc across both islands bringing destrucve gales, extensive flooding and widespread travel disrupon. It hit the West Coast of the South Island on January 18 before sweeping up the country over several days., Then Temperatures took a wintry turn as the wild weather moved in. It was so cold 30cm of fresh snow coated Cardrona ski field in the middle of summer. March storms The Tasman Tempest struck in the first week of March leaving many parts of Auckland underwater and stranding hundreds of school children on camps in the Hunua Ranges and Coromandel.

Massive amount of rain caused ﬂooding in New Lynn Photo/Dean Puccell

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Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 29 As the mop-up got up underway a final aernoon burst of rain flooded around 50 homes in West Auckland with roads turning to rivers. The downpour was so intense a culvert collapsed in New Lynn near a set of shops. The five days of flooding across the upper North Island le a whopping $61.7m insurance bill. April's Cyclone Debbie aermath The autumnal weather chaos connued as the remnants of Cyclone Debbie lashed the North Island in early April. The country was put on high alert as the large storm moved in with virtually no region escaping the wrath of the tropical torrent. The worst moment of the storm came on April 6 as Edgecumbe was swamped by a catastrophic stopbank failure.

A catastrophic stopbank failure left much of Edgecumbe under water in April. Photo / Alan Gibson

April's Cyclone Cook Barely a week aer Cyclone Debbie had blown out to sea a second ex-tropical Cyclone Cook took aim at New Zealand. Cook was inially expected to make a direct hit on Auck- land but instead tracked east at the last minute making landfall in Whakatane . It then worked its way quickly down the east coast of both islands unleashing torrents of rain and strong winds one Hawke's Bay resident described as "enormous gusts like freight trains". The phenomenal rain led to 35 places recording their weest or near-weest autumn on record – including most main centres. Whangaparaoa recorded 791mm - a massive 294 per cent of normal. Wintry July storms The tropical-fueled storms of April gave way to a winter that became our 11th warmest on record. But aer a balmy June a brutal winter storm hit on July 12 bringing heavy snow to low levels in Otago and Canterbury and the central North Island. Towering seas, punishing gales and heavy snow and rain lashed central New Zealand for three days. It was followed by a potent second winter storm that led to widespread flooding in Can- terbury and Otago. Many towns were cut off and a state of emergency was declared across Otago and several Canterbury districts as floodwaters rose to near-historical levels. Oamaru had its weest July day ever recording 161mm in 24 hours. November's Roxburgh flash flood A violent thunderstorm late November swept through the central Otago town of Rox- burgh sending silt-laden floodwaters pouring through streets and large boulders spilling across roads. Up to 50mm of rain fell in just 30 minutes forcing people from their homes - and trapping others inside.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 30 Snovember A final icy blast saw temperatures dive as snow fell in parts of the South Island for the last me this year. The short-lived cold snap saw winds ramp up to more than 100km/h in the centre of the country and snow to low levels in the south and heavy rain in most areas as it swept north. Sizzling summer leading up to Christmas Cromwell had 12 consecuve days where the temperature was at 25C or above – with three of those higher than 30C - which is the most ever for November. As the year comes to an end Canterbury clocked up a new record going 46 days without rain and breaking a 64-year-old record of connuous days without rain. But rain did come late on Christmas night - a boon for firefighters trying to contain a destrucve wildfire in nder-dry condions near Hororata, 56km west of Christchurch. (Abridged). http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11965733

A sea of mud claims jandals as bad weather sweeps over Rhythm and Vines 30 Dec Stuff A sea of mud pulled the soles of flimsily uncovered footwear into its opaque trap. They had been warned about Thursday night storms. Rhythm and Vines kicked off Friday afternoon, with 20,000 punters treading Waiohi- ka Estate to the music of headliner Schoolboy Q and Auckland DJ Max Key.

TAYLA OMEARA/STUFF A sea of mud covers the walkways at Rhythm and Vines. In the proliferating terraced mosh pit at Rhythm and Vine's main stage, envious danc- ers looked longingly at the gumboot wearing veterans on Friday. But by Saturday afternoon, revellers had swapped plastic ponchos for sunscreen. https://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/music/gig -reviews/100259863/a -sea -of -mud - claims -jandals -as -bad -weather -sweeps -over -rhythm -and -vines

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 31 MetService warns of dangerous waves 31 Dec 2017 NZ Newswire Dangerous swells are set to arrive along the country's western coasts on New Year's Day and beachgoers need to be on the lookout, MetService says. "[The] swell is expected to rise on west coast beaches during New Year's Day, which could take beach users by surprise," it said. "Waves may not appear large at first but will rise through tomorrow." The swell is being produced by persistent gales south of Australia. (Abridged). https://www.msn.com/en -nz/news/national/metservice -warns -of -dangerous -waves/ar - BBHwu7j

Whanganui surfers revel in big waves after calm spell 2 Jan, 2018 By: Laurel Stowell/ Wanganui Chronicle

EASY RIDER: Surfer Rhys John catches a big wave at Morgan Street beach on new year's day. Surfer Nathan Old heard the waves would be big and went to Whanganui's Morgan Street beach on new year's day to play in them. He got some good rides, and was heading home at midday Boaties and coastal people had been warned that big waves would hit New Zealand yesterday. They were generated by a storm south of Australia, lashed along by strong westerly winds. During the calm weather there was little surf, so "wave -starved" surfers were all agog at indications a swell was coming. It came yesterday. "It started really early this morning, very clean and very big, a really fast -moving swell. We have had a really beautiful surf today," he said. "There are some very excited surfers in this town. It's fun times." http://www.nzherald.co.nz/weather/news/article.cfm?c_id=10&objectid=11968318

Hurricane-strength winds due tomorrow 3 Jan Otago Daily Times A sub -tropical storm with hurricane -strength winds is taking aim at New Zealand. The weather will pack up today before the storm makes landfall tomorrow. The storm is on track to hit the top of the country tomorrow before sweeping down the country, affecting all the North Island and the north and east of the South Island. The country's forecaster is warning the significant weather system has the potential to bring severe weather to northern and central New Zealand. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/hurricane -strength -winds -due -tomorrow

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 32 Strong Gusts and king tides on way 3 Jan Radio NZ A subtropical storm developing west of Queensland will move across the country over the next two days, likely bringing king tides and winds of up 100km/h. MetService said heavy rain warnings were in place for Northland and Auckland (up to 25mm/h), Coromandel, Bay of Plenty including Rotorua, Mount Taranaki, Marl- borough (up to 30mm/h) and Nelson (up to 40mm/h). Nelson was expected to receive a total of up to 160mm of rain over nine hours. Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said parts of the North Island were more at risk of inundation from the king tides than others are. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/347390/weather -warning -strong -gusts -and - king -tides -on -way

Most of North Island coastline at risk of flooding on Thursday and Friday 3 Jan, 2018 NZ Herald Surface flooding has hit Palmerston North and Masterton following severe thunderstorms which pelted the area this evening. Streets filled with water as the dark clouds rolled in, bringing intense downpours that overwhelmed stormwater drains. Strong onshore winds mean that king des on Thursday and Friday, coupled with waves the size of a double-decker bus, pose a threat to many low-lying communies. This map shows where the storm is predicted to be at 4pm tomorrow.

A weather map as Thursday's storm closes in. Photo / Earth.nullschool.net

Niwa is warning the approaching storm is bearing similaries to ex- Tropical Cyclone Ita, which struck at Easter three years ago inun- dang coastal communies across the upper North Island and blow- ing buildings to pieces on the South Island's West Coast.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/wanganui -chronicle/news/article.cfm? c_id=1503426&objectid=11968929

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Thousands without power in N Island due to storm 4 Jan, TVNZ

Waves smashing over the banks at Long Bay Motor Camp near Coro- mandel Town as it nears high tide. Photo: NZ Herald A woman is dead after a tree fell on her car in Rotorua's CBD. The storm caused also brought flooding to parts of the Coromandel and Thames region and grounded flights in Auckland. - The Auck- land region is worst affected with 5000 homes without power according to Vector. Waves of up to 7.5 metres were recorded by a buoy at Baring Head off Wellington. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/ national/thousands -without - power -n-island -due -storm

Monster waves lash Wellington as high tide hits in strong winds 6 Jan, ROBERT KITCHIN/STUFF The MetService warned that the capital's south coast in particular may see flooding, and it did. Lowry Bay near Eastbourne got the worst of the high tide and strong winds that whipped debris and waves over Marine Parade. Wellington's low lying coastal areas were hammered by huge waves and surface flooding as a strong southerly coupled with a super high tide. High tide hit at 9.11am in Wellington, and saw The Esplanade in Petone hit with large waves, spraying dog -walkers and parked cars.

Simon Woolf snapped this photo of the Interislander powering through Cook Strait on Saturday. Surface flooding had been reported in Eastbourne's Sunshine Bay mid -morning, and waves could be seen lashing vehicles along the suburb's only main access road: Marine Dr.

Further south, along the exposed coast south of Wainuioma- ta, waves at Baring Head were about 4.5 metres tall on Saturday morning, MetService meteorologist Tom Adams said. Interislander spokesman Mark Thompson said numerous sailings had to be cancelled because of rough seas from Friday night, and some Saturday morning passen- gers faced delays.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 34 The recorded wind speed at Wellington Airport this morning was 74kmph, and most flights were running as scheduled. - Stuff

Waves lash Petone's coastline along The Esplanade on Sat- urday morning, as high tide hits following a storm. https://www.stuff.co.nz/ national/100367611/surface - flooding -and -monster -waves -lash -wellington -as -high -tide -hits -in -strong -winds

The storm by numbers: Which areas got the most rain and the strongest winds 6 Jan MetService have released the numbers from the storm that wreaked havoc in the last couple of days. Kerikeri felt it the most on Thursday, with 82mm of rain in 24 hours, followed by Ro- torua with 75mm and Whitianga with 66mm of rain. Thursday also saw 161km/h winds in Kaeo and 128km/h winds at Marsden Point. On Friday, Gisborne was subjected to 30mm of rain in one hour, while at Wellington Airport there was 15.2mm of rain in one hour. The weather is still in force in parts of the country, with eight metre waves in the Cook Strait today and strong winds hitting some areas. Mt Kaukau in Wellington saw 142km/h winds today, while Len Bons Bay in Banks Peninsula, Canterbury, had 124km/h winds. A Metservice spokesperson told 1 NEWS that the gusts in Kaeo were the highest recorded during the storm and that the majority of the North Island (except the Mana- watu and Kapiti regions) experienced between 50mm – 200mm of rain. Nelson and the Marlborough and Canterbury regions experienced similar rainfall. https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one - news/new -zealand/storm - numbers -which -areas -got - most -rain -and -strongest - winds

Thames Coast Rd open for convoys following last week's monster storm 8 Jan, 2018 / NZ Herald

The Thames Coast Rd has been closed after copping some of the severe weather. Photo / Michael Shepherd - Finch

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One lane of the Thames Coast Rd is opening for public convoys this morning aer being hit by last week's devastang storm. hp://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arcle.cfm?c_id=1&objecd=11971166

'A year of two halves': 2017 weather breaks records 8 Jan /Stuff

Last year was the fifth warmest year on record in New Zealand and one in which swings between extremes toppled longstanding records nationwide. Niwa's annual climate summary for 2017, released on Monday, shows the year's weather was hard to pin down: it was largely defined by warm temperatures and high rainfall, but ended with record -breaking dry -spells and meteorological drought. Civil Defence declared eight states of emergency, with weather causing most of those, making it the most eventful year since a public list started in 2002. The year started off wet and extended to an incredibly soggy March and April as the Tasman tempest and ex -tropical cyclones Debbie and Cook contributing to record amounts of rain and flooding. The year's weather was caused in large part by prevailing high pressure patterns in the east, with northerly winds. The year ended with a marine heatwave and a high pressure system, leading to warm, settled conditions. The average air temperature nationwide was 13.15C, about 0.5C above the long term average. That made it the fifth warmest year since 1909, beaten by 2016, 2013, 1999 and 1998. In terms of sunshine, the top of the South Island was once again the place to be. The wider Nelson area ended the year with 2633 hours of sun, followed by Marlbor- ough with 2605 hours. Several other places were sunnier than usual. The South Island's West Coast, for example, had a particularly sunny year: Westport, Hokitika and Greymouth all sur- passed 2000 sunshine hours, which made them sunnier than most major cities. hps://www.stuﬀ.co.nz/naonal/100329656/a-year-of-two-halves-2017-weather-breaks- records hps://www.radionz.co.nz/news/naonal/347652/2017-a-year-of-weather-extremes- niwa

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 36 Hobby weather-watcher in his element as summer mixes drought and storms 8 Jan Kelvin Teixeira/Stuff There is never a dull day when you're a weather-watcher, and Kāpi Coast's Murray Eg- gers has been in his element lately. The "extraordinary" weather since spring has been a highlight in the 15 years the Paraparaumu reree has been recording daily temperatures and rainfall. He does this from his home, using equipment purchased from the local hardware store. It is an inexpensive hobby - his thermometers cost less than $5 each, similar to his rain gauges which essen- ally are just plasc measuring cups on wire stands. A clipboard, paper and pen are used to jot down the readings, with the data then entered onto his comp With "an inquiring mind", he wanted to prove that the temperatures he felt at home were actually slightly higher than the official readings. This was because most official meteorological equipment was located at airports, which were often near the coast and where sea breezes cooled the air. Since spring, each month has been sunnier and with higher temperatures, says Mur- ray Eggers."I'm almost wishing it continues because I want to capture a record - it would be wonderful." hps://www.stuﬀ.co.nz/dominion-post/news/100350833/hobby-weatherwatcher-in- his-element-as-summer-mixes-drought-and-storms

Drambuie on the rocks one day, in pieces the next 11 Jan Last week's severe summer storm swept 20 boats ashore, completely destroying at least one.

SUPPLIED During the storm Drambuie was on the rocks along Tamaki Drive. Auckland's Tamaki Drive, which stretches along the Waitematā harbour, experienced storm surges and a king tide.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 37 SUPPLIED The next day Drambuie was smashed to pieces. hps:// www.stuﬀ.co.nz/ auckland/local-news/ east-bays- courier/100415189/ Storm-leaves-boat- Drambuie-shaken-not- srred-and-smashed- on-Tamaki-Drive

Cost of storms in NZ pushing up premiums, insurance brokerage says 11 Jan Sunlive

New Zealand is now ranked as a “high haz- ard” for floods and cyclones by the World Bank funded Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This announcement comes on the back of a dramatic rise in the cost of storm related insurance claims over the past three years has seen. It's too early to say how much the January 5 storm cost in claims and the New Zea- land insurance Council is unlikely to know for four months, but similar weather disas- ters are expected to continue to strike New Zealand until at least the 2060s, according to data from the World Meteorological Organisation. Jo Mason, who is CEO of one of the country's largest insurance brokerage groups, NZbrokers, says new insurance claim data shows the number of storm and flood insurance claims in NZ has increased by 56 per cent over the last three years and the cost of these claims has increased by 70 per cent. hps://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/170862-storm-related-claims-increasing.html hps://www.stuﬀ.co.nz/business/industries/100320666/cost-of-storms-in-nz-pushing- up-premiums-insurance-brokerage-says

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 38 Residents evacuated in Greymouth as flooding, rains hit 11 January 2018

Surface flooding in Greymouth Photo: Sup- plied / NZ Police The Greymouth area has already received 150 mil- limetres of rain overnight, forcing road closures, slips and surface flooding. About 75mm of rain fell on Greymouth within two hours today, according to MetService. https:// www.radionz.co.nz/news/ national/347889/residents -evacuated -in -greymouth -as -flooding -rains -hit

Storm surge's wall of water one of the biggest recorded in Firth of Thames 12 Jan Dominico Zapata/Stuff Many of New Zealand's coastal areas were hit by high winds, heavy rains and a storm surge causing widespread damage. Some called it a wall of water, others compared it to a tsunami. However you describe it, the storm surge that flooded Firth of Thames locales last Friday was among the worst on record for the area. The sea level at the peak of the storm was near that of the Hauraki Plains floods of 1938, according to Waikato Regional Council data. Water levels in the storm were more than a metre higher than a normal high tide, "We are still assessing ... but, as a guide, this is one of the biggest events that have occurred in the Firth of Thames in recorded history," said Waikato Regional Council's Rick Liefting.

DOMINICO ZAPATA/STUFF The storm ripped seal off the Thames Coast Road and washed out some of the layers under the seal.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 39

"The water levels were more than a metre higher than your 'normal' high tide." An offshore tide gauge in Tararu recorded a 2.8m water level, the regional hazards team leader said, though waves would have exceeded that. The biggest "storm tide event" on the Firth of Thames was in 1938, he said, when much of the Hauraki Plains was submerged and the water level was estimated at 3m. "As a guide, this is one of the biggest events that have occurred in the Firth of Thames in recorded history," Stopbanks on the plains stopped them going under this time, Liefting said, but mid - storm, the water was nearing the top of those built by the Piako River. Three key factors combined to beef up the storm, he said: low atmospheric pressure, winds, and a king tide. "It occurred smack bang on the highest tide of the year." The only thing missing to create a perfect storm was heavy rain. https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/100471363/Storm-surges -wall -of -water -one -of -the -biggest -recorded -in -Firth -of -Thames

Govt report says access to weather data is restricted and costly, sﬂing innovaon 12 Jan By Derek Cheng / NZ Herald

A Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment report, released this afternoon, has found that the Government has a monopoly on New Zealand weather data, which is stifling innovation and research.

The report - Weather Perming: Review of open access to weather data in New Zealand - was ﬁnished last April but only published today. It found that access to weather data was costly and restricve when compared with the USA, Norway, Australia, the UK and France.

"The New Zealand model is at the most commercial and restricve end of cost and limita- ons on data use ... Some people believed that MetService and Niwa used their monopoly on weather data to sﬂe compeon in the market for value-added services." Costly access to data was in part due to the funding models for MetService and Niwa, which were more reliant on Government subsidies than other countries.

"The key is balancing the monopoly industry (MetService and Niwa) that produces weather observaonal data, and the compeve industry that uses data as a resource," the report said.

Weatherwatch.co.nz head forecaster Philip Duncan told the Herald that opening up access to the data would increase compeon and li forecasng accuracy. Duncan accused the previous Naonal-led Government of burying the report in an elec- on year. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11974135

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 40 Invercargill has hottest day on record at 32.3°C 15 January 2018

Oreti Beach in Invercargill yesterday. Photo: Supplied / Ezicab Invercargill The MetService said the official temperature at Invercar- gill's airport at around 5.30pm yesterday reached 32.3°. It's only the sixth time since 1993 the temperature in the city has exceeded 30°. Before yesterday, the hottest temperature Invercargill had ever experienced was 32.2° in 1921. https://www.radionz.co.nz/ news/national/348068/invercargill -has -hottest -day -on -record -at -32 -point -3-degreesc

Explained: How you get your temperature forecasts 17 Jan, By Jamie Morton, NZ Herald The highs and lows reported on the TV news just didn't gel with what you felt outside that day. While weather forecasng is indeed a science, that doesn't mean the MetService figures reported each night in your city were the same at your house - or even your part of town. If you're checking TVNZ's website, you'll find today's high and low in Auckland is 24C and 19C, yet it's 25C and 20C on nzherald.co.nz. Take a look at the official Met- Service website and you'll see Auckland Central is forecast to hit a high of 24C - but it's going to be slightly cooler at North Shore (23C) and slightly hoer at Waitakere (25C). "Each media outlet has their own approach, depending on how focused they are on urban versus regional areas, observaons versus forecasts, what meframe constutes a day," MetService forecaster Lisa Murray said. That included choosing which sites they focused on, and what they did when an "outlier" site recorded the highest value. In other cases, it came down to ming. "The daily maximum temperatures on TV are the highest temperatures so far that day, up to the me we send the informaon to the media outlets," Murray said. "There may be occasions when the highest temperature occurs later in the evening, so that would not be captured." And as for how those temperatures were actually captured, most figures for most towns and cies - including Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch - were recorded at airports. This was to offer the most accurate current condions for aviaon, but also meant sea breezes could make for cooler temperatures that might be otherwise slightly higher in the middle of the city.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 41

Regardless, our diverse landscape and the simple fact we're surrounded by ocean meant there would always be variaons in temperature on any given day or night. "It is very possible that there are other places in a city or region who would experience higher or lower temperature," Murray said. "This is can be due to to- pography, being close to the sea, direcon of slope and other influencers like the built or natural micro-environment. Or it could just reflect the set-up of your home thermome- ter, which would record higher temperatures if fied to the side of a brick house in direct sunlight, or set too close to the ground. Ideally, thermometers needed to be about 1.3m above ground; protected from direct sunlight, rain and snow; and placed in a well exposed posion, preferably four mes its height away from obstrucons like trees and buildings. All temperatures measured by MetService were recorded on highly sensive instruments in ideal locaons, out of direct sunlight and away from heat sources, housed in Stephen- son's screens. But good recording spots for official staons are hard to find. "Our observaon network is set up in occurrence to the World Meteorological Organisa- on recommendaons, where standard enclosures and a standard exposure are used, so temperatures are comparable from place to place and from day to day," she said. Along with the other requirements, sites had to be secure from vandalism, with reliable access to power and communicaon, and few obstrucons - something most urban and subur- ban areas couldn't offer. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11976586

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 42 Weather agency scruny 18 Jan Otago Daily Times By Paul Gorman

Dr Megan Woods The Government will look into an apparent double -up in which New Zealanders are paying millions of dollars a year to support two national weather forecasting agencies. State -owned enterprise MetService is New Zea- land's official provider of weather warnings and a range of government -funded forecasts. But in recent years Crown research institute climate agency Niwa has boosted its forecasting unit, building up a vigorous social media profile and employing extra meteorologists who predict and comment on approaching extreme or notable weather. Niwa is spending $18 million upgrading its ultra -fast supercomputers. These not only generate climate -change projections and scenarios of the effects of natural events, but, according to Niwa's website, also produce ''the six days of Niwa Weather forecasts that help you find the best time to do all the important things you want to do’’. Others in the weather sector, including private forecasting companies WeatherWatch and Blue Skies Weather and Climate, are worried taxpayers are now having to fund competing government agencies and say the situation is unparalleled elsewhere in the world. There are concerns the public may be confused about whom to listen to when severe weather is on the way and also about the struggle with Niwa and MetService to get access to what WeatherWatch and Blue Skies say should be publicly available, ‘’open’’, data. Complaints about the forecasting double -up to former state -owned enterprises minister Steven Joyce were to no avail. Minister of Research, Science and Innovation Dr Megan Woods said she was going to look into the matter and ‘’ensure there isn’t undue duplication of roles and effort’’. Niwa declined to comment on the minister’s move and chose not to answer questions. MetService spokeswoman Jacqui Bridges said it would be ‘’happy to assist and collab- orate’’ with Dr Woods. The potential for public confusion about severe weather warnings was a concern, Ms Bridges said. ‘’MetService places great importance on communication with news media and the public to ensure awareness of its role as New Zealand’s uthorized weather warnings service, and to maintain high public trust and confidence in its forecasts and warnings.’’ MetService had not complained to ministers or the Government about Niwa’s forecasting service, she said. A much -awaited Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment report on public access to Niwa and MetService weather data, released last Friday, found their restrictions were some of the toughest in the world and might be stopping third -party competition and hamstringing innovation. Consultant PwC said Dr Woods would be given options ‘’to increase access to observa- tional weather data’’. ‘’Depending on the minister’s decision, there may be future investigation into impacts on MetService and Niwa if more weather data access were to be further opened up.’’

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 43 Dr Woods said she had already asked officials to consider how that data could be freed up. ‘’I have some concerns around the way the current commercial model operates.’’ WeatherWatch owner Philip Duncan said it was ‘’good news’’ Dr Woods was willing to look into the government forecaster duplication. However, he was not ‘’jumping for joy’’ after several previous efforts to get this far had been hampered by ‘’no transparency, misleading comments from ministers and no accountability’’. Blue Skies Weather founder and forecaster Tony Trewinnard said he was concerned about potential conflicts of interest ‘’when the gatekeepers of data are also looking to profit from it’’. ‘’It’s hard enough competing with one government -funded competitor, let alone two,’’ he said. Mr Trewinnard said giving government -subsidised agencies some independent free - market competition, able to operate with the same data, was a good thing. Forecasng facts • The former New Zealand Meteorological Service was split into the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research and the MetService in 1992. • MetService was set up as a state -owned enterprise with responsibility for weather forecasting. • Niwa was established as one of the Crown research institutes, primarily charged with carrying out atmospheric and water research. • MetService now employs about 250 staff and has several subsidiary companies. • Niwa has close to 600 employees, runs forecasting arm NiwaWeather, and oversees 13 national science centres and a handful of subsidiary companies. [email protected] https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/weather -agency -scrutiny

Unsettled outlook for weather agencies 22 Jan Otago Daily Times editorial The weather seems a strange subject to get into a dispute over. Yet something is clearly not right in New Zealand’s meteorological world. What the weather does or does not do affects us all. It is the grand backdrop to our daily comings and goings. The weather’s vagaries can determine the success or failure of a business or sector, and, at worst, threaten safety and lives. We can do nothing to change it. Put simply, New Zealand is a long, skinny country with big mountains and a lot of coastline, located in the middle of the tempestuous westerly wind belt. For those rea- sons it can be a nightmare to accurately forecast the weather. MetService is the state - owned enterprise charged with providing core government -funded forecasts, including regional, city, marine and mountain predictions. It is also the World Meteorological Organisation’s designated "national meteorological service" for New Zealand, which means it is responsible for issuing official warnings of severe weather. Niwa, on the other hand, is one of the Crown research institutes set up to carry out sci- entific research which might ultimately have commercial benefit. Its main fields are atmospheric and hydrological research, along with climate -change investigations. Despite this, it has become increasingly active in weather forecasting, establishing its own NiwaWeather unit. This has put it on a potential collision course with MetService and private forecasting companies such as Canterbury’s Blue Skies Weather and Auckland’s WeatherWatch.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 44 MetService says it has not formally complained to the Government or ministers about the national forecasting double -up, which is costing taxpayers millions of dollars every year. Whether the SOE has complained behind -the -scenes may be a different matter. Niwa would not answer questions put to it by this newspaper, which does nothing to help the public know what is really going on. It is hardly surprising that WeatherWatch and Blue Skies Weather, and others like them, are irked by what they see as meteorological muscling -in. And it seems grossly unfair that those providing competition in the sector — often focused on providing specific local forecasts for specialised clients — are unable to compete on a level foot- ing because the real -time and historic data from Niwa and MetService cannot be ac- cessed without a licence that could cost thousands of dollars.In many cases it has been volunteer observers across New Zealand who have taken weather readings for the public good over more than 100 years. There is no reason why this information should have to be bought. Up -to -date information, including weather radar images which show how areas of precipitation are moving and forming, is free in other countries but attracts a charge here. MetService and Niwa were established in 1992 shortly after SOE Airways Corporation had begun setting up its own aviation weather forecasting business to compete with the former New Zealand Meteorological Service, a government department. The Jim Bol- ger -led National government quashed that move and split the old meteorological service in two — allocating forecasting to the new MetService and research to Niwa. That shake -up came about at least partially because of unwanted competition. Now, it would appear we are back in a similar position.More than 25 years on from that change, it is certainly time for a comprehensive look at the Niwa -MetService overlap. Why should taxpayers be paying for two government -funded agencies? Who allowed this to happen? And why should those organisations be able to stymie true competition for private forecasters? Taxpayers fund both a police force and a prison service. We would not expect prison officers to attend a burglary and push police officers out of the way as they did so. They each have a job to do and are given our money by the Government to do that particular work. It is encouraging that Minister of Research, Science and Innovation Megan Woods has said she would examine the situation. Clearly, the last government was happy to let things slide so it could receive revenue from forecasting from both. Perhaps it is time to go back to one national weather agency? https://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/editorial/unsettled -outlook -weather -agencies

Predicting weather like popping corn 23 Jan Sunlive

Bay of Plenty residents may be hit with thunderstorms today, while their neigh- bours down the road may experience fine weather. File photo. The Bay of Plenty's weather has been unpredictable of late, with sunny days suddenly turning grey and heavy rain failing to eventuate. MetService meteorologist Tom Adams says the nature of the weather at the moment means thunderstorms and oth-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 45 er severe weather events tend to be isolated. “These are spots of heavy rain surrounded by areas with very little. That's the nature of the weather at the moment – it's very convective. “You get thunderstorms or ‘heat showers' – smaller version of a thunderstorm, without the thunder, basically – popping up in places, but you could be half a kilometre away and get nothing.” “It's like microwaving popcorn and trying to anticipate which piece of popcorn will explode first,” says Tom. https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/171617 -predicting -weather -like -popping -corn.html

Ominous images show severe thunderstorms hing Napier 23 Jan 1-News

Thunderstorm over Napier. Source: Mark Bibby Impressive pictures of thunderstorms hitting the Napier region have been sent in to 1 NEWS NOW this afternoon, as the Met- Service issues warnings of severe thunderstorms making their way towards Auckland. https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one -news/new - zealand/man -pulled -water -in -auckland - critical -condition

Sewage flows at Auckland beaches after hyper -local rainstorm 23 Jan AMY BAKER AND LAINE MOGER /Stuff Two Auckland beaches have been con- taminated with sewage following a storm which caused flash floods on the North Shore.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 46 https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/100799627/flash -flooding -hits -upper -harbour

11,000+ lightning strikes in storm - and it's not over yet 26 Jan Supplied by Tinelle Sullings/ NZ Herald The North Island has experienced 11,323 lightning strikes today and the intense thunderstorm isn't over yet. Thunderstorms and hail have hit the Eastern Bay of Plenty, causing power outag- es and small ﬁres. The weather system is moving north and Hamilton is now experiencing hail, heavy rain and thunder.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/ nz/news/article.cfm? c_id=1&objectid=11982908

Goneburger: Another weather record, aer Wanaka swelters in 35.2C heat 27 Jan Cherie Howie /NZ Herald Another day, another weather record bites the dust. This me it's Wanaka, already in the grip of a heatwave, which rubbed out an old high temperature record. Temperatures have soared in the late aernoon to 35.2C - smashing the previous record of 34.5C measured in Febru- ary 2005. Wanaka has been the grip of a heatwave for more than a week. A meteorological heatwave is when the daily maximum temperature is higher than the average maximum by at least 5C for ﬁve consecuve days. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11983260

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 47 Middlemarch Otago sizzles at 37.4C as South Island centres soar above 30C 30 Jan

It has been another day of blazing heat, with the central South Island bearing the brunt of it as temperatures reached the high thires. Otago, again, was the centre for scorching temperatures as Middlemarch, Northwest of Dunedin, peaked at 37.4C at 4pm, The Na- onal Instute of Water and Atmospheric Research reported. The scolding heat in Mid- dlemarch marked the tenth hoest January temperature on record for the country. It was followed by Cheviot in North Canter- bury (37C), and Clyde in Central Otago which reached its hoest temperature on record (36.7). Earlier in the day, at 1pm, Hanmer Forest and Waiau in Canterbury were hoest at 35.6C. Today’s 37.4C is the warmest temperature recorded in New Zealand in nearly SEVEN years--since 6 February 2011 when Timaru reached 41.3° http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11984817

Final ﬁgures: January hoest NZ month in 150 years 1 Feb, 2018 By: Jamie Morton Science Reporter, NZ Herald A top climate scienst has called it: January was the hoest month that New Zealand has had in 150 years. Dr Jim Salinger, who pioneered Niwa's benchmark seven-staon series, used to analyse climate trends, said January's temperature had come in at a scorching 20.2C that’s 3C above average. "This makes it the warmest of any month in reliable temperature records dang back to 1867," said Salinger, an honorary research fellow at the University of Otago. Former record-breaking months were February 1998 at 19.6C and February 2016 at 19.5C. The previous warmest January was in 1956 with 18.8C. "The main reason for the hot early summer and the marine heatwave around New Zea- land over this period was a strongly posive Southern Annular mode, causing the storms whirling around the Southern Oceans to contract towards the Antarcc connent, with no cold outbreaks into the Tasman Sea and New Zealand area," Salinger said. "The frequent ancyclones tracking over the Tasman Sea across the South Island and to the east have allowed the seas to heat up, producing the marine heatwave." http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11985980

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 48 Cloud overshadows super blue blood moon over much of New Zealand 1 Feb / Stuff

ROB WILLIAMS The super blue blood moon seen just after the peak eclipse from Welling- ton, New Zealand. Cloud cover has ruined the triple celestial treat of the first super blue blood moon since 1866 for many Kiwi sky -watchers, especially in the South Island. hps://www.stuﬀ.co.nz/naonal/101027999/ cloudy-skies-could-threaten-kiwis-view-of-the- super-blue-blood-moon

Sting in the tail for Auckland as passing storm is accompanied by king tide 1 Feb Stuff CATRIN OWEN/STUFF A king tide closed Tamaki Drive in Auckland on Thursday morning. The storm is almost past, but ex -tropical cyclone Fehi has a sting in its tail for Auck- land. Torrential rain lashed many parts of the city on Thursday night following periods of heavy rainfall earlier in the day, causing severe flooding. Tamaki Drive was pre - emptively closed around 8:30pm ahead of the day's second king tide, which hit at 9:10pm.

AUCKLAND TRANSPORT Flooding strikes Auckland's Tamaki Drive on Thursday morning as a king tide hits at the same time as a storm from the tropics. MetService meteorologist Tui McInnes said it was a coincidence the same combination of weather events was happening again, after a king tide coincided with a storm in January. hps://www.stuﬀ.co.nz/auckland/ local-news/101067611/Flooding- closes-Aucklands-Tamaki-Dr

Flights disrupted and roads closed as high winds continue to batter Wellington 1 Feb Stuff / AMELIA WHITE

The sea swell combined with a king tide has eaten the sea wall, protecting the Plimmerton fire station, for the third time in 5 years.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 49 Multiple flights in and out of Wellington Airport have been disrupted as winds gusting more than 140kmh continue to hammer the Wellington region. A wind gust of 142kmh was recorded at Mt Kaukau in Wellington about midday.

SHONA CROASDALE/SUPPLIED Alfie Croasdale, 9, enjoyed sitting through the waves at Plimmerton Beach during the storm. His mum, Shona Croasdale, said the photo was taken about 1pm on Thursday afternoon and "he was loving it".

ROSS GIBLIN/STUFF Water laps the boatsheds at Mana in Porirua.

hps://www.stuff.co.nz/ naonal/101081258/highways-flood- and-flights-stop-as-winds-close-to- 140kmh-hammer-wellington-region

From 'unbelievable' summer to 'biblical' storm 1 February 2018 Glen Scanlon "Unbelievable"; "I've never seen any- thing like it"; "Biblical". People caught up in the aftermath of ex -Tropical Cyclone Fehi all put it a little differently but they were captur- ing the same feeling - astonishment.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 50 Flooding in Westport Photo: Chris Cooper

Westport's race course, Paerson Park, was completely covered in water. Photo: West- port Trong Club In Westport, farmer and local trong club spokesman John Reedy Jnr agreed it felt a bit "biblical" aer rescuing horses from stables and a race course which was underwater. "It's unbelievable. The storm surge just came up - we had half a metre of water in the stables. I've never seen it like that." https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/on -the -inside/349437/from -unbelievable -summer -to - biblical -storm

Wild weather: In pictures 1 Feb, 2018 12:01pm

Members of yacht club try to protect the club- house in Nelson. Photo / Tim Cuff

Water flows thru probation office on Revel St Hokitika Photo / Joe Morgan http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11986110

Storm Fehi brings destrucve rain, winds to NZ 1 February 2018 States of emergency have been issued after thousands were left without power and others evacuated in the wake of ex -cyclone Fehi.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 51

Half an hour before high tide at West- port Massive waves smash into seawall at Plimmerton. Photo RNZ/John Barr https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/349412/storm -fehi -brings -destructive -rain - winds -to -nz

Storm Fehi's path of destrucon 1 February 2018 Thousands of people around the country are without power, perhaps for 48 hours, and others face a long clean -up after the ex -tropical cyclone.

Fox Glacier access road on Thursday. Photo: Department of Conservaon https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/349391/storm -fehi -s-path -of -destruction

By the numbers: Rain, wind and low (and high) temperatures during the storm 1 Feb Stuff Ex -tropical cyclone Fehi is bringing with it severe weather including winds stronger than 160kmh and up to 100mm of rain Forecasters predicted heavy rain, flooding and thunderstorms as Fehi passes over the country. We're part way through that now, and it's been just as bad as they said - in Nelson, people are being rescued with inflatable boats, while on the West Coast high winds have felled hundreds of trees and cut power. Here are a few stand -out facts and figures generated by the storm so far. MetService meteorologist Arno Dyason said Cape Foulwind, near Westport on the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 52 West Coast, had gusts hitting 161 kmh. Gusts along the West Coast ranged from 130kmh in towns to 160kmh in exposed areas. In Wellington, Mt Kaukau had experienced gusts of up to 140kmh and other exposed suburbs in the city had gusts "easily into the 130s", he said. Mount Cook aerodrome's weather station had recorded 142mm of rainfall in the 12 to 18 hours to 2pm on Thursday. Meanwhile, on the western slopes of the Southern Alps, up to 180mm had been received. Despite the rain, it was still hot in some places. According to Met- Service, the temperature in Christ- church reached 34.5C just before 1.30pm on Thursday. That made it the city's hottest day in two years.

Waves pound the Boulder Bank at Glenduan north of Nelson. Niwa said ex -tropical cyclone Fehi's path has been over some of the most unusually warm parts of the Tasman Sea, likely influencing the weather system stronger than it would have been otherwise. Meteorologist Ben Noll said on January 30 the marine heatwave in the Tasman had hit 7.4C warmer than average. hps://www.stuﬀ.co.nz/naonal/101081333/by-the-numbers-rain-wind-and-low-and- high-temperatures-during-the-storm

Storm leaves chaos in its wake 2 Feb, 2018 By: Alice Peacock [email protected] @amarypeacock The fury of ex-cyclone Fehi has passed over New Zealand, leaving a trail of ﬂooded homes, torn-up roads and more than 100 motorists facing a night in their cars.

Snow in summer: The latest twist to our weird weather week 2 Feb Stuff MARJORIE COOK/STUFF

Social media users shared their images of snow A MetService meteorologist said snowfall had been visible on some of its webcams overnight, but it had melted owing to warm temperatures during the day. Among the other areas that received snow were the Crown Range Road, Mount Aspiring and the Lindis Pass. hps://www.stuﬀ.co.nz/ naonal/101120583/snow-in-summer-the- latest-twist-to-our-weird-weather-week

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hp://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/arcle.cfm?c_id=1&objecd=11986467

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Climate change making storms 'more intense' says scienst 2 February 2018 Charlie Dreaver , RadioNZ From record -breaking heat to flooding and gale force winds, New Zealand has had more than its fair share of extreme weather this week.

Last week Dunedin hit a record 35°C, yesterday the Boathouse on Nel- son's waterfront was hit by storm. Photo: RNZ / Supplied Peter Moﬀa However, sciensts are warning this could be the new norm. Naonal Instute of Water and At- mospheric Research (Niwa) principal scienst Dr Sam Dean said there were contribung factors as to why the storm hit so hard. 'It's always going to be the La Niñas, the underlying natural variability in the climate system, to make some years more stormy, than other years," he said. "Climate change is making our storms, when they do happen, more intense. We've also got that higher sea level and we've got that increased rainfall.” https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/349537/climate -change -making -storms -more -intense -says -scientist

NZ must prepare for climate change impacts, says PM 2 February 2018 Benedict Collins Radio NZ The impact of recent major storms demonstrates the government's huge responsibility to prepare the country for the impacts of climate change, the Prime Minister says.

Jacinda Ardern -- errac weather shows we need to address climate change. Photo: RNZ / Rich- ard Tindiller The Naonal Instute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) believes La Nina, climate change and rising sea levels have all played a role in the severe eﬀects of the latest storm event and has warned there could be another severe storm before summer is over. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/349521/nz -must -prepare -for -climate -change - impacts -says -pm

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 55 Tonga declares state of emergency ahead of Tropical Cyclone Gita 12 February Stuﬀ MICHAEL DALY Tonga has declared a state of emergency as it prepares to be baered by a category 4-strength Tropical Cyclone Gita.

TVNZ Downtown Apia after Tropical Cyclone Gita - then just a category 1 storm - passed over Samoa on Saturday. Average wind speeds close to the centre were expected to be over 200kmh by 7pm on Monday.

NTCWC https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south - pacific/101348969/Very -destructive - hurricane -force -winds -expected -to -hit - Tonga -Monday -evening

That’s a lot of rain 13 Feb Stuff Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said the organisation's climate station in Alba- ny, on the North Shore, collected 434.6mm of rain between January 1 and February 13. "That's a lot of rain," he said. That was equal to the total amount of rain collected at the same station between July 10 and December 31 2017, he said. https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/101413216/thats -a-lot -of -rain -rainfall -in -44 -days - equal -to -entire -last -half -of -2017 -for -auckland -niwa -says

Flooding in Northland cancels schools, closes roads as ﬂooding hits parts of NZ 13 Feb, 2018 NZ Herald School's out for kids in the Far North as ﬂooding closes more than a dozen schools. More than 100mm of rain could fall in the region today - up to 40mm an hour. MetService has issued a heavy rain warning for Northland and has predicted thunderstorms and downpours.

Heavy rain created a spectacular dis- play at Whangarei Falls. Photo / Sup- plied MetService forecaster Cameron Cous said up to 80mm had fallen over the past 24 hours http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11993397

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 56 Cyclone Gita brings destrucon to Tonga 14 February 2018 Disaster assessment teams in Tonga say water, shelter and food are the immediate needs for people still reeling from the destruction brought by Tropical Cyclone Gita overnight. Gita hit Tongatapu as a category four cyclone with winds of more than 233km/h. It has since moved away from Fiji and has been upgraded to a category five. Tonga's Red Cross said the level of damage to crops, homes, vegetation and infra- structure was ex- tremely high following the cyclone. "The scene in Nukualofa is very devastated... You can see fallen trees and even fallen houses, and they are still in a mess."

Tonga’s Parliament House after cyclone GITA . Supplied. The owner of Real Tonga Airways said there was no power at Fua'amotu International Airport on Tongatapu, where the airport buildings have sustained some damage and there is significant flooding. The only positive aspects were that there was no storm surge because the worst of the cyclone hit at low tide, and that the cyclone did not last as long as was expected. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/pacific/350257/cyclone -gita -brings -destruction -to - tonga

Cyclone Gita 'worst in living memory' on Fiji's Ono-i-Lau 14 February 2018 A community leader on the Fiji island of Ono -i-lau says the damaging winds from yesterday's cyclone Gita were the most frightening and dangerous on living memory on the island. Ono -i-Lau and Vatoa, in the Southern Lau island group between Fiji's main islands and Tonga suffered from gales, heavy rain and coastal flooding when Gita hit yesterday . https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/ pacific/350372/cyclone -gita -worst -in -living - memory -on -fiji -s-ono -i-lau

West Coast gets 9000 lightning strikes 18 February 2018 The West Coast had around 9000 lightning strikes as a thunderstorm and heavy rain

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 57 worked its way up the South Island. MetService forecaster Cameron Coutts said most of the lightning strikes were out to sea. https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/350613/west-coast -gets -9000 -lightning -strikes

Cyclone Gita set to be the most southern tropical cyclone ever 18 February 2018, NZ Herald

Cyclone Gita expected to strike New Zealand late on Tuesday. (Photo/ NZ Herald) Cyclone Gita could break a record by strik- ing further south than any previous tropical cyclone, according to one forecaster. The tropical cyclone is sll classiﬁed a Category 3 as it moves through the Paciﬁc, where it is expected to make a U-turn toward middle New Zealand. http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/cyclone -gita -set -to -be -the -most -southern - tropical -cyclone -ever/

Ex-cyclone Gita to split in two as it crosses the country overnight 20 Feb Stuﬀ Ex -cyclone Gita will split in two separate systems as it crosses the country overnight, the MetService says. "It is technically splitting into two low pressure centres as it crosses the South Island today," MetService meteorologist Ciaran Doolin said. "It will split as it moves around the Southern Alps."

The estimated track of ex -cyclone Gita, from Met- Service. The weaker of the two, forming near Westland, would be "very shallow" and would bring some rain as it moved over the north of the South Island. Kaikōura faced isola- tion as heavy rain, slips, rock falls and swell dan-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 58 gers closed State Highway 1 in both directions and also the inland route, SH70, with huge waves picked to hit coastal areas as the storm intensifies. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/101562512/Flooding-road -closures -and -flights - cancelled -for -areas -worst -hit -by -Cyclone -Gita

Several Christchurch residents evacuate as Heathcote River threatens to overﬂow 20 Feb Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel declared a local state of emergency earlier on Tuesday and urged people to head home before ex- Cyclone Gita hit. Residents of Christchurch's Eastern Tce leave their flood - prone homes before the weather worsens on Tuesday. "We would normally lin- ger longer but our experience is you wake up and it's around the house," Emily Dunstall said.

STACY SQUIRES/STUFF Sisters Maisie, 8, and Ruby Lovelock,12, enjoy a few moments before evacuating their home. Tasman District Mayor Richard Kempthorne declared a state of emergency at 7.20pm on Tuesday . Further flooding was expected to happen in Takaka over the next few hours and residents were asked to consider evacuating their homes if they thought they were at risk. https://www.stuff.co.nz/the -press/ news/101586507/Christchurch -Mayor - Lianne -Dalziel -declares -local -state -of - emergency -as -ex -Cyclone -Gita -nears

Cyclone Gita live updates: Weather chaos; high winds and heavy rain 20 Feb, 2018

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11998403

Gita strikes: Seven districts declare state of emergency 20 Feb 2018

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Christchurch, Buller, Grey District, Selwyn, Westland, Tasman and Taranaki have each declared a state of emergency as ex -tropical Cyclone Gita shows her heavy hand. The downpour has also led to record rain- falls particularly in Kaikoura, where 194.4mm had fallen by about 7.40pm - four times more than the monthly normal, according to Niwa. A total of 53.6mm of rain fell in the area between 4 and 5pm - the wettest hour on record and over a month's worth of rain in only an hour. https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/gita - strikes -seven -districts -declare -state - emergency

Cyclone Gita: SH1 closed north and south of Kaikoura 20 February 2018, Press Release: NZTA The NZ Transport Agency is advising motorists that State Highway 1 has been closed north and south of Kaikoura due to heavy rain and the risk of slips and rockfalls.. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/AK1802/S00524/cyclone -gita -sh1 -closed -north -and - south -of -kaikoura.htm

New Plymouth is in the grip of a water shortage crisis. 21 Feb ANDY JACKSON/STUFF

NPDC The water emergency map on the NPDC website shows the areas with normal supply (green), limited supply (yellow) and normal supply unavailable (red). Severe water restrictions are in place for New Plymouth and out- lying towns, water must be boiled before being drunk and thousands of residents are being asked to avoid flushing their toilets.

SIMON O'CONNOR/STUFF Residents are allowed just five litres per person. Thousands of houses across Taranaki remain without power. https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki -daily -news/news/101590124/New -Plymouth -district - remains -in -state -of -emergency -as -severe -water -restrictions -are -put -in -place

Cyclone Gita: Wild weather grounds ﬂights, knocks down power pole in Wellington

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 60 20 Feb Dominion Post Wellington copped nearly a month's worth of rain in one day thanks to Gita. February usu- ally sees about 51mm of rain the entire month, but 48mm fell at Wellington Airport on Tuesday. POWER LINES COMES CRASHING DOWN

MONIQUE FORD/STUFF A power line blocks Raroa Rd in the Wellington suburb of Highbury on Tuesday after a mix of wet weather and nearby excavation work consipred to bring it down. http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion -post/news/101586124/wellington -spared -worst -of - weather -from -excyclone -gita

Recap: Cyclone Gita hit New Zealand 21 February 2018

Flooding in the Takaka val- ley. Photo: RNZ / Logan Church About 6000 people are still trapped in Golden Bay as rain caused slips More than 120 schools and 70 early learning centres remain closed in Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Canterbury, Nelson, Marlborough, West Coast, Otago and Waikato. Follow RNZ's live coverage:

Three hundred and fifty tonnes of rock has been dumped into the sea north of Wellington, as contractors scramble to fix a section of State Highway One.

In photos: Cyclone Gita aermath 21 February 2018

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 61 Cyclone Gita has swept across New Zealand, causing flooding, slips and damage. RNZ's photographers and reporters have been out documenting the aftermath

GITA lining up New Zealand and an incoming cold front https://www.radionz.co.nz/ news/national/350901/in - photos -cyclone -gita -aftermath and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/ news/article -5419827/Footage - shows -force -Cyclone -Gita -New -Zealand.html

Snow, heavy rain and surface ﬂooding hits Otago 21 Feb NZSKI The Remarkables ski field in Queenstown had about 50cm of new snow on Wednesday morning. Queenstown and Wanaka ski fields got up to 1 metre of fresh snow overnight. https://www.stuff.co.nz/ national/101627495/snow -heavy -rain - and -surface -flooding -hits -otago and https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/ national/350871/recap -cyclone -gita - hit -new -zealand

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter152 Autumn 2018 Page 62 New category 6 may be added to cyclone classiﬁcaons due to climate change 22 Feb Stuﬀ

NASA/JMA HIMWARAI Tropical Cyclone Gita hit Tonga with sustained winds of over 230kmh and gusts of up to 278kmh. Increasingly powerful cyclones might mean the need for a new category to classify them - category 6. In fact, there have already been cyclones that could be classed as category 6. Climate Change Min- ister James Shaw told Radio NZ : "The MetService experts tell me that it (Winston, which smashed Fiji in 2016 ) had much stronger winds than the 230kmh upper limit of a category 5 cyclone. "It's just that the international cyclone rankings don't go higher than category five. Experts at the Pacific Ocean Climate Change Conference in Wellington were told on Wednesday that New Zealand and the Pacific region were going to be hit hard by changes to weather patterns caused by climate change. Niwa climate scientist Brett Mullan said climate change would contribute to stronger cyclones by increasing sea temperatures. MetService manager of specialist weather services, Chris Noble, said the question of adding a sixth category was an interesting one, and a factor that had to be considered was that of the response to a cyclone. "That's really what the category system is designed to address, is to communicate how severe the system is and then linking to that, what should the response by the public or the emergency managers be, and once you get to category 5, I think it becomes a little bit academic whether it's a 5 or a 6. - Stuff https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate -news/101666312/new -category -6-added - to -cyclone -classifications -due -to -climate -change

MetOcean Soluons awarded $500,000 for beer weather-predicon tool 28 Feb, 2018 Otago Daily Times -By Yvonne O'Hara MetOcean Soluons, which is part of the New Zealand MetService, has been awarded $500,000 for a two-year project to develop a predicve tool using machine learning that will help southern farmers and contractors make harvesng decisions, and keep forestry workers safe. Raglan-based MetOcean technical manager Dr Dave Johnson and his team are developing a hyper-local and precise forecasng system, which will analyse the huge amounts of data sent from satellites, and idenfy potenal and immediate, rapidly developing, localised convecve (ie thunderstorms, squalls, hail, heavy rainfall) weather events. Funding came from the Ministry of Business, Innovaon and Employment's Endeavour Fund last year. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/weather/news/article.cfm?c_id=10&objectid=12003631

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