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EMB DAY Executive Aviation Oct2013

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EMB DAY Executive Aviation Oct2013 Embraer Day Marco Tulio Pellegrini - COO Executive Aviation Oct. 31 st , 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Market recovery depends on many factors Willingness to invest Stock Markets Business Pre-owned Aviation Wealthy Market Traffic Population Corporate Profits Finance Exchange conditions Rates Sales of New (for small jets, and Asia Business mainly) Jets This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Source: Embraer Analysis U.S. corporate profits 2.500 2.249 2.000 +41% +125% 1.500 1.000 US Corporate Profits (US$ (US$ Bi) Profits US Corporate 500 0 Q2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: BEA – Bureau of Economic Analysis and Embraer estimates, September 2013 Seasonally adjusted at annual rates This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Worldwide HNWIs population 11.9 10.8 11.0 10.1 10.1 9.6 8.8 8.2 8.6 7.7 Population (mi) Population 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa Source: World Wealth Report 2013 edition This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Business Jet Traffic – United States 220 2007 190 2013 160 2012 Movements X 1000 X Movements 130 2009 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: FAA – September 27 th , 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. World GDP growth rates Source: EIU, September 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Business jets pre-owned market inventory 12.9% 8.3% 3.500 28% 2483 jets 672 jets Fleet older than 10 yrs 3.000 Up to 10 yrs & positions 24% Total fleet % for sale 2.500 20% 2.000 16% 1.500 12% 1.000 8% Units (Bars) Units 500 4% % of active fleet (Lines) fleet active of% 0 0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 TD Source: Jetnet and Embraer Analysis, September 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. EEJ Fleet for sale 100 50% % of active fleet 95 EMBRAER Total fleet for sale 45% 90 40% 85 35% 80 30% 75 25% 70 20% 12% 65 15% 60 10% #sale fora/c ofEmbraer 55 5% for sale as % of active fleet active of % as sale for 50 0% Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Despite a large amount of small jets in fleet, Embraer fleet for sale is currently below the world average of 12.3%. Source: Jetnet and Embraer Analysis, October 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Pre-owned asking prices # Total Fleet for sale Average discount 150% 3200 ↑ 141% since peak 100% 2800 ↓ 18.5% since peak 50% 2400 # Total Fleet for sale for Fleet Total # Av. discount (Relative to May 2009) May to (Relative discount Av. 0% 2000 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Recovery will depend on an improvement in pre-owned prices. Owners are postponing substitutions. Source: Jetnet and Embraer Analysis, October 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Top 5 business jets in residual value performance Retail / Avg Equipped* 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Year of Manufacture Phenom 300 Citation CJ4 G550 Lineage 1000 7X * Average equipped price in 2013 economic conditions for all years. Source: Aircraft Bluebook, October 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Top 10 best “liquidity” performers DAYS ON DAY ON ACTIVE FLEET FLEET Rank MODELS MARKET MARKET (US) FLEET FOR SALE FOR SALE (%) 1st EMBRAER PHENOM 300 125 102 139 4 3% 2nd CITATION CJ4 149 238 130 3 2% 3rd GULFSTREAM G-350 157 N.A. 11 2 18% 4th GULFSTREAM G-550 169 120 411 12 3% 5th LEARJET 40XR 179 215 91 5 5% 6th CITATION XLS+ 191 131 143 10 7% 7th GULFSTREAM G-450 230 130 271 19 7% 8th EMBRAER PHENOM 100 234 256 285 19 7% 9th CHALLENGER 300 237 304 414 22 5% 10 th FALCON 2000LX 237 83 123 6 5% Source: Jetnet, October 2013. This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Fractional market consolidation: control duopoly Active fractional shares - market share 11% 73% Directional Aviation Control 12% 3% 1% NetJets Flight Options Flexjet CitationAir Others Directional Aviation will more than double its participation (from 11% to 23%). Source: Embraer analysis based on Jetnet database. October 2013. This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Phenom 300 in fractional operators FLIGHT OPTIONS NETJETS 25 aircraft delivered to date 10 aircraft delivered to date Flight Options also operates 6 Legacy 600 Source: Jetnet and Embraer Analysis, October2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Owners utilization profile (average FH/year) EMBRAER Owners 616 Hawker 350 Cessna 372 Bombardier 393 Dassault 440 Gulfstream 445 Large Jets 433 Medium Jets 393 class Owners OEM Owners Small jets 344 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Embraer owners tend to have a better annual utilization leading their businesses to higher productivity. Good option for management prospects. Source: Jetnet IQ 2Q13 report proprietary data. This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Next 10 years Bizjet Forecast This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Market Recovery in slow motion US Corporate profits at record levels MILD GROWTH HNWI at record levels World GDP growth is moderate Used market inventory leveled off but prices are still an issue Traffic recovery on track but slower than expected European markets still at risk; emerging countries slowing down Lack of confidence is holding the bizjet market turnaround USA market dictates the speed of recovery This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. 2014-2023 market forecast 1200 Deliveries Forecast (units) Units US$ 225 17,3 1000 1345 Ultra Large 82,2 800 Ultra Long Range 1670 Large 1270 600 Supermid 920 64,7 400 Midsize 1140 Midlight 31,1 1780 17,8 200 Light 17,3 Entry 900 15,8 4,2 0 Deliveries Revenues 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 N10YF 9,250 jets and US$ 250 Bi in the next 10 years This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. 2014-2023 market forecast by region EMEA North America 2,330 a/c (25%) 4,530 a/c (49%) US$ 70 Bi (28%) US$ 117 Bi (47%) China 805 a/c (9%) US$ 29 Bi (11%) Asia Pacific 725 a/c (8%) US$ 21 Bi (8%) Latin America Worldwide 860 a/c (9%) 9,250 units US$ 15 Bi (6%) US$ 250 Bi Source: Embraer 2013. This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. THE BUSINESS TODAY This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Embraer product portfolio Ultra-large EIS 2009 Ultra-Long Range Large EIS 2010 Super Mid-Size EIS 2002 Mid-size EIS 2014 Mid-light EIS 2015 Light EIS 2009 Entry EIS 2008 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Executive Aviation - Revenue evolution (US$ million) 1292 1210 1119 937 838 874 582 246 278 145 175 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR 24.4% This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. EEJ market share evolution since EIS (units) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Market share Market 15% 10% 5% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 22% accumulated since EIS, within the markets EEJ competes Source: Jetnet and Embraer analysis – July, 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. EEJ market share (revenues) 21.8 17.3 18.2 18.1 17.7 Total Revenues (in US$) 5% 6% 10% 7% 5% 8% 4% 3% 8% 6% 7,3% 4,2% 5,9% 6,4% 6,9% Others 23% 25% 21% 21% 27% Hawker-Beech Embraer 12% 18% 15% 17% Gulfstream 22% 19% 9% 10% Dassault 13% 7% Cessna Bombardier 33% 33% % OEM Share – Share US$ OEM Revenues % Total 29% 28% 27% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: GAMA and Embraer analysis – July, 2013 This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent. Backlog evolution (US$ million) 7200 5500 4900 4700 4400 3200 2800 1800 500 500 100 300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013TD CAGR 17% This information is the property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written consent.
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