UnderstUnderstandinganding ’Iran’ss AssemblyAssembly ofof ExpertExpertss

Policy Brief #1 November 2006 UnderstUnderstandinganding Iran’Iran’ss AssemblyAssembly ofof ExpertExpertss

Contents Editorial Board Anoush Ehteshami - Safeguarding the Door of Power 3 Mahjoob Zweiri The Evolving Nature of Power in Iran

- Election Facts and Figures 4 Contributors - The Constitutional Role of the Assembly 5 Rights and Limitations Ehsan Abdoh Iren Campari - Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Assembly of 6 Fouad Marei Experts Election Muhammad Saleh The Man of Power in Peril Afshin Shahi Arlene Taylor - Reformists and the Elections 7 Mahjoob Zweiri

- Mesbah-Yazdi and Forthcoming Elections 8 The Man of Shadows Moves into the Open

- Women and the Elections 9

- The Outcome 10 Possibilities and Different Scenarios

Centre for Iranian Studies, Al Qasimi Building, Elvet Hill Road, Durham DH1 3TU, [email protected] SafeguardingSafeguarding thethe DoorDoor ofof PowerPower The Evolving Nature of Power in Iran Eighteen months after the election election, or more importantly what tional conservatives led by of President Mahmoud the outcome of this election will Rafsanjani, and neoconservatives Ahmadinejad, Iranians will once mean to Iran and Iranian politics? led by Mesbah-Yazdi. This conflict again go to the polls to vote, this The elections will have an indirect could eventually put an end to the time to elect the Assembly of impact on the President and the political future of Ahmadinejad, who Experts, which deals with monitoring Majlis (parliament), this will come enjoyed the support of Mesbah- the performance of the leader through the exisiting Supreme Yazdi in the last presidential elec- (Velay-e-Faqih). Iranians have to Leader, Khameini, or any tions in 2005. Undoubtedly, there is make the decision about which 86 one who succeeds him. The eight- the prospect of significant confronta- experts should do this job. Again the een months of Ahmadinejad's presi- tion within Iranian politics. This is fully prepared, dency has proved that the Supreme would be a real possibilty if the and the registered number of 496 Leader is not far away from influenc- Supreme Leader was to give his full candidates will have to face a written ing events within the country. Three support to Rafsanjani and his list, examination in order to ascertain the examples help to illustrate this point. which Rafsanjani needs to stop any adequency of their religious qualifi- Firstly, it was the Supreme Leader's attempt to question his authority as cations. Furthermore, if they pass decision to form a foreign policy long as he is alive. If this does not this examination, they will then also committee, following the perception happen this will mean the third face an interview process. Even of Ahmadinejad as a loose cannon defeat for Rafsanjani in less than 2 some previous members of the cur- in matters of foreign policy. years, which will further hamper his rent Assembly had to sit the written Secondly, on the economic front, the political career. exam, although it has been argued Supreme Leader also ordered the by some people, such as Majeed government to quickly deal with the Despite the power jostling between Ansari, that it is both illegal and inac- problem of inflation. Thirdly, the the Iranian political forces, the curate to do so. nature of the new will influence Iranian Those who succeed in the vet- domestic politics and foreign ting process will then qualify to policy. Therefore there will be stand for the elections. changes in long term policies, Moreover, those who are especially if the Ahamdinejad eventually elected will have an government keeps going in indirect impact on Iranian poli- the current direction which it tics, as the main job of the has chosen in regards to Assembly of Experts is to Iranian politics. There will monitor and assess the per- also be some changes on the formance and qualifications of foreign policy front, especially the leader for a term of eight if the neoconservative faction years. The reason why they will now Supreme Leader also urged the win a majority in the upcoming elec- enjoy an eight year term is due to government to sell shares of govern- tions. However, this will not be the fact that, in the future, the 5th mental companies to Iranian work- recognised in the short term, simply Expert elections will occur at the ers in order to distribute the wealth. because there will be an unseen same time as the 10th Majlis elec- Additionally, Ayatollah Khameini has conflict of interests which will slow tions. Therefore it has been also tried to control the foundations down any political decision-making assumed that this Assembly of (Bonyads), such as the Oppressed process. Experts will continue doing its job Foundation, the Fifteenth of without the need for new elections. Khordad Foundation and other simi- In summary, these elections add a Most importantly, as the soon to be lar organisations which legally are new chapter to the previous Iranian elected Assembly of Experts will tax exempt and out of the control of understanding of democracy and enjoy a longer eight year term, the the President and the Majlis. In elections, and with power being cen- Iranian political forces are pushing these elections, Khamenei himself is tral to the elections, one faction is hard to win more seats in the trying to limit any movement from therefore pitted against the other. It Assembly in the knowledge that they those who call themselves the third might be understood as being will then be able to significantly movement, supported by Mesbah- improper, but this is religious affect the Iranian polical scene. Yazdi, as they will be a threat to his democracy according to Iranian pol- authority. It also appears that there itics! There is a question about what this is real competition between tradi-

Centre for Iranian Studies, Al Qasimi Building, Elvet Hill Road, Durham DH1 3TU, [email protected] 3 FactFactss && FiguresFigures

In these elections, eighty six seats will be elected from thirty electoral constituencies. The distribution of these candidates will be according to the following map and table:

Centre for Iranian Studies, Al Qasimi Building, Elvet Hill Road, Durham DH1 3TU, [email protected] 4 AA constitutionalconstitutional rolerole ofof thethe AssemblyAssembly Rights and Limitations

The unexpected victory of Mahmoud As demonstrated, the Assembly of the Supreme Leader indirectly Ahmadinejad in the recent presiden- Experts acts as a representative appoints the members of the tial election surprised, if not gal- body to democratize the role of the Assembly of Experts through the vanised, many internal and external Supreme Leader, the most powerful Guardian Council. Consequently observers of the Iranian political figure in Iranian politics. one could argue that, as the scene. Ahmadinejad's hardline rhet- Consequently, the Islamic Republic Assembly of Experts are subject to oric, fundamentalist religious senti- often identifies the Assembly of approval by the Guardian Council, ments, militant approach to the state Experts as "the source of legitima- which itself is subject to the of Israel, and alleged nuclear ambi- cy". However, in spite of the appar- Supreme Leader, there is very little tions has increasingly placed Iran at ent democratic role of the Assembly space left for political maneuvering. the centre of international attention. of Experts, the same constitution It also raises the important question The outcome of the previous elec- also provides additional clauses about just who will supervise the tion, and the radical shift of power which clearly undermine the demo- conduct of the Supreme Leader him- from one side of the political spec- cratic nature of the Assembly of self. trum to another, should provide us Experts. By examining the constitu- with enough reasons to recognise tional role of the Supreme Leader, Having reviewed the selective per- the importance of Iranian elections the democratic deficit of the formance of the Guardian Council and their wider repercussions. Assembly of Experts becomes during previous elections, it seems Baring in mind the political potential apparent. plausible to expect minimal room for of the Iranian elections, we thus a fair competition which would ade- have significant reason to analyse One article in particular can be iden- quately represent those from differ- the forthcoming election vigilantly. tified within the constitution which ent sides of the political spectrum in This article will briefly examine articulately outlines the political Iran. whether the election set to take jurisdiction of the Supreme Leader. place on the 15th December 2006 There are 11 sections in Article 110 The Guardian Council was widely will, constitutionally speaking, have which give the Supreme Leader the criticised for its act of political the capacity to reshape the political overarching authority over other favouritism and selectivism during milieu in Iran. components of the system, including the presidential election of 2005. the legislature, judiciary and the Out of 1014 people who registered Before engaging ourselves in analy- executive. The Islamic Republic for the presidential candidacy, only a sis and speculation regarding the attempts to justify such monopolisa- small number of candidates were outcome of the election, it is essen- tion of power by referring to the role selected to participate in the elec- tial to examine the constitutional role of the Assembly of Experts, which is tion. Unsurprisingly, most of those of the Assembly, and also its legal elected and responsible for the disqualified by the Guardian Council jurisdiction within the political frame- selection of the Supreme Leader. were either independent, or work of Iran. Clearly, the legal Therefore, they are implications of belonged to the reformist parties. authority of the Assembly of Experts, indirect democracy taking place Subsequently, due to the constitu- and its constitutional rights and limi- through the Assembly of Experts to tional limitation of the Assembly of tations, can help us speculate as to elect the Supreme Leader. Experts, it is difficult to anticipate the possible political outcome of the However, the sixth section of the that the election scheduled to take election. Article 110 suggests otherwise, as it place in December will result in any clearly indicates that the Supreme drastic social or political change. It According to Article 107 of the Leader has the authority for the seems almost implausible to predict Iranian Constitution "the task of "appointment, dismissal, and that the Council of Guardians, the appointing the Leader shall be vest- acceptance of the resignation of the most conservative entity within the ed with the experts, elected by the fuqaha' in the Guardian Council". framework of the Islamic Republic, people…The Leader thus elected by would approve the kind of candi- the Assembly of Experts shall Candidates for the Assembly of dates who could question the legiti- assume all the powers of the vilayat Experts are also subject to approval macy of the Supreme Leader from al-amr and all the responsibilities". by the Guardian Council. the seats of the Assembly of Hence, Article 107 provides the Accordingly, no one can gain the for- Experts. Assembly of Experts with the legal mal qualification required to partici- capacity to elect, supervise and pate in this election unless they even disqualify the Supreme have gained approval from the Leader. Guardian Council. In other words,

Centre for Iranian Studies, Al Qasimi Building, Elvet Hill Road, Durham DH1 3TU, [email protected] 5 HashemiHashemi andand thethe AssemblyAssembly ofof ExpertExpertss ElectionElection The man of power in peril

For most Not surprisingly Hashemi Rohaniat Mobarez (The Society of observers, Rafsanjani's failure in the elections Activist Clergy) and Jamehei Hashemi is directly linked to the image of the Modaresin Hozei Elmieh (The Rafsanjani all-powerful man of the Islamic Society of Religious Tutors of Qom) has always Republic. This image made him placed Hashemi Rafsanjani on their been the responsible for the Islamic regime's list of candidates. This move was powerful failure to create a stable economy, supported by the non-clerical sector, man of the along with its offenses to human the conservative's old elite, with one Islamic rights and other political wrongdo- of its members commenting that "the Republic. ings. Such a reputation does not election of the Assembly of Experts His political bode well in the elections. is different from the presidential career is election; Hashemi's place is among filled with key positions: Interior Some people still believe that the experts" . Minister in 1979, the Speaker of Hashemi Rafsanjani is the most Parliament in three terms from powerful man in the Islamic This image of moderation and unity 1980-1989 and President of the Republic, and there is no doubt that was broken on October 28th, when Islamic Republic in two successive he holds a considerable amount of the supporters of Ayatollah Mesbah- terms from 1989 to 1997. But more political capital within the regime. Yazdi announced that Hashemi importantly Hashemi Rafsanjani is However, at least for the time being, Rafsanjani will not be included on known to have significant responsi- Hashemi Rafsanjani is merely strug- their list of candidates. It seems that bility for some of the most important gling to maintain every scrap of Hashemi Rafsanjani will have to decisions in the history of the Islamic power still left in his grasp and con- face Mesbah-Yazdi, his long-time Republic of Iran. His role in the end- solidate his disadvantaged position. antagonist, in this election. ing of the Iran- war has been Currently he is Chairman of the Hashemi Rafsanjani can count on largely debated, and it is speculated Expediency Discernment Council of the support of the old elite of conser- that he was one of the directors of Iran, a position in which his ability to vatives, who will not appreciate the emergency meeting of the maneuver is most limited due to the Mesbah-Yazdi's move, but he has Assembly of Experts on 3rd June close alliance between President several disadvantages that might 1989, which resulted in the promo- Ahmadinejad and the chairman of prove fatal. Firstly, for the moment, tion of Seyeed to the the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi's political supporters rank of Supreme Leader. In addition . His political allies - such as President Ahmadinejad to all this, there has been a lot of hold only 40 of the 270 seats of the and Ayatollah Jannati - appear to be debate and speculation about his parliament, and all of his protégées more powerful than Hashemi family's alleged large wealth and and close friends have been pushed Rafsanjani's. Then there is the fact financial influence. out of high and middle ranking gov- that the constituency of is ernmental positions. The image of usually somewhat passive toward This image of an all-powerful godfa- the all-powerful man is becoming a the Assembly of Experts and its ther figure has been seriously dam- distant memory with each passing election. Furthermore, the voters of aged in recent years. Hashemi day. Tehran have shown little courtesy Rafsanjani's first major failure toward Hashemi Rafsanjani in the occurred during the parliamentary And now on the eve of election for previous elections. These factors elections of 2000, when the voters of the Assembly of Experts, Hashemi can in turn benefit Mesbah-Yazdi's Tehran refused to give him their sup- Rafsanjani has to protect one of his supporters and allies, who can be port, and the one time speaker of last traditional strongholds. In the certain of a small but sufficient num- three parliaments and the winner of last election he won his seat effort- ber of votes. two presidential elections had to lessly and was elected as the sec- endure the humiliation of not even ond deputy chairman of the Even with such disadvantages, being among the top 30 elected Assembly, and he is most likely keen Hashemi Rafsanjani has no other MP's of the capital. The 2005 presi- to hold on to this position. In the option but to participate in this elec- dential election delivered an even past the groups which usually con- tion and maintain his seat within the more serious blow to Hashemi trol the Assembly of Experts were in Assembly. Failure to do so will Rafsanjani's reputation, when he favor of Hashemi Rafsanjani's pres- result in his position being further lost the presidential marathon to the ence in the Assembly. In the autumn undermined from a disadvantaged populist upstart Mahmoud of this year two of the most influen- one to a hopeless one. Ahmadinejad. tial clerical groups, Jamehei

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The reformists who have already but the fact that he also questions It seems that the debate regarding experienced two heavy electoral the very framework of the Assembly the legitimacy of the Assembly has defeats identify the Guardian of Experts. engaged many figures, who in one- Council as the main reason for their way or another are part of the very failures. Among all the existing He argued that the role of the system that was designed to main- debates that are currently taking Supreme Leader is not only reli- tain the pre-eminence of the place in Iran, I find the comments by gious, as the scope of his jurisdiction Supreme Leader and Vilayet-e- former minister Mousavi Lari the also encompasses the military, faqih. The increasing factionalism most interesting. security, economic, political and cul- and political division among the tural spheres. Therefore the political elite has become increas- Unsurprisingly, his criticism of the Assembly needs to be more com- ingly evident, thus such divisions are Guardian Council was his point of prehensive in order to include no longer dealt with behind closed departure, and he also expressed experts from other essential fields, doors. his vision for a more democratic not only religion. Being a cleric him- Assembly of Experts. For example, self, he added that the Assembly is The categorical failures of the he questioned the decisive role of elitist, and thus needs to open up to reformist element in the last two the Guardian Council in undemocra- the wider section of society, instead elections made it evident that, as tically selecting the candidates. of simply embracing the selected long as the Council of Guardians However, his criticisms of the clergy. maintains its superlative position, Council did not seem to be the reformists will not have a restricted to the Assembly of serious chance to play an Experts. Nevertheless, fol- imperative role within the lowing the arbitrary and political framework of the selective acts of the Council Islamic Republic. Although in the run up to the presiden- the reformists monopolised tial election, most reformists, the executive and legisla- including Mousavi Lari him- ture through the landslide self, criticised the Council as electoral victories under being the key obstacle in president Khatami, they still their attempts at achieving failed to implement the nec- true reform and democracy essary reforms. within Iran. Today however, the Iranian Furthermore, Mousavi Lari political map has taken on a also made a comment in different shape, with the leg- relation to the religious quali- islature, the executive and fications of the candidates, all the councils appointed by as the adequacy of their reli- the Supreme Leader now gious credentials is currently dominated by the hardliners. the sole decision of the Within such a climate, it Council of Guardians. would be difficult to predict Mousavi Lari instead sug- the possible infiltration of the gested that, rather than let reformists into the Assembly the Guardian Council decide, of Experts. However, it such examinations and deci- seems more than likely that sions should take place with- Mousavi Larry most reformist candidates in seminaries. He therefore will be disqualified, and recommended that the seminaries More interestingly, he argued that once again an election will be autonomously provide references there is no constitutional obstacle to orchestrated to choose the "chosen for the candidates regarding their prevent women participating in the ones". religious qualifications. forthcoming election for the Assembly of Experts. This was said In fact, what makes Mousavi Lari's in light of the rejection of ninety comments very interesting is not just female candidates who were cast off his criticism of the Guardian Council, for presidential election in 2005.

Centre for Iranian Studies, Al Qasimi Building, Elvet Hill Road, Durham DH1 3TU, [email protected] 7 Mesbah-YMesbah-Yazdiazdi andand ForthcomingForthcoming ElectionsElections The Man of Shadows Moves into the Open

From the early autumn, two of the Ahmedinejad and Mesbah-Yazdi oldest and most influential factions of Iran's clergy, Jamehei Rohaniat Mobarez (The Society of Activist Clergy) and Jamehei Modaresin Hozei Elmieh Qom (The Society of Religious Tutors of Qom) announced their resolution on hav- ing a joint list of candidates for the upcoming elections of the Assembly of Experts. The Islamic Motalefeh (Coalition) Party, another grand organization of the old conservative elite, supported this unified act with much enthusiasm. On 22nd October the names on the list were revealed, and included two individu- als who contradicted each other in every aspect: Akbar Hashemi- Rafsanjani, the former president and current chairman of the Expediency Council, and Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, the religious ally - and alleged mentor - of President the most forceful and inflexible kind, As mentioned before, Mesbah-Yazdi . he has been one of the greatest has not been a very well known indi- antagonists of Hashemi Rafsanjani's vidual in Iran's politics; some of his This act was considered an attempt moderation policies, along with rivals have concluded that such to persuade different rightwing con- Khatami's reformist discourse. On behaviour is natural for an oppor- servative groups into unity through one occasion he attacked Hashemi tunist who did not have the courage political compromise; however it Rafsanjani for considering the con- to stand up against the shah's was obvious that this attempt will not cept of religious leadership (Velayat) regime. However, such a low profile receive the support of all involved an earthly matter which can be does him much credit; it demon- parties. Soon after, the editor of determined by ordinary people , and strates patience and long term plan- Partove Sokhan, the weekly journal on another occasion he discredited ning in a country where 'making the dedicated to publishing Mesbah- the legitimacy of elections. In one most at the present time' is the most Yazdi's views, announced that a of his recent interviews regarding popular maxim. Residing in Qom, group of Mesbah-Yazdi's supporters cultural matters of society, he com- Mesbah-Yazdi has spent most of his will have their own list of candidates, mented that "in the last sixteen time studying and teaching, enhanc- a list which will not include Hashemi years [since the passing of Ayatollah ing his theories, training protégées Rafsanjani. Khomeini] the cultural matters have and expanding his political connec- not only failed to improve but the sit- tions and influence, and now it Until the late 1990's Mesbah-Yazdi uation has been exacerbated." seems that it is harvesting time. was not a recognized personality in Mesbah-Yazdi's own discursive lan- Iran's political arena, but in recent guage and literature demonstrates Immediately after being elected to years he has acquired the most haz- his total disapproval of both the presidency, Mahmoud ardous reputation. His political and Hashemi Rafsanjani's and Ahmadinejad made a symbolic visit religious rivals within the Islamic Khatami's somewhat liberal policies to the holy city of Qom. His move regime consider him a power hungry toward social liberties and indicates became more figurative and mean- opportunist who did not dare to par- that he believes in a far more force- ingful when his first meeting was ticipate in the anti Shah movement . ful approach toward social and polit- with Mesbah-Yazdi. This was per- Some have even accused him of ical matters, which can be even haps a momentous event, signifying ordering the brutal assassination of more severe than a return to the the fact that after years of staying in many secular intellectuals . Mesbah- Islamic revolutionary discourse of the shadows, Mesbah-Yazdi is Yazdi is known to be a hardliner of the 1980's. ready to move into the open. And

Centre for Iranian Studies, Al Qasimi Building, Elvet Hill Road, Durham DH1 3TU, [email protected] 8 their own list of candidates in clear knows no bounds, and he even disregard to the united front of the deems himself qualified for occupy- old conservatives, it became clear ing the status of spiritual leadership that now after years of biding time, of the Islamic Republic. One should he feels strong enough to make an be hesitant to accept such claims, open and clear claim for power. however one thing is certain, Mesbah-Yazdi and Ahmadinejad By reviewing the statements made supporters have begun another by Ahmadinejad and Mesbah- phase of undermining Hashemi Yazdi, the intimate proximity of the Rafsanjani by attempting to deny two becomes apparent. Both of him even his traditional position them despise and reject any kind within the Assembly of Experts, and of westernisation and emphasize if they succeed and Mesbah-Yazdi Islamic values in governing the secures a vital position within the society which should be main- assembly, his axis with Ahmadinejad tained by forceful and revolutionary will become more powerful and methods. Both of them oppose might become a foundation for a any kind of moderation used by the surgical restructure within the hierar- previous governments and have chy of the Islamic Republic. publicly labeled them as grave mis- takes. In every way they are a

Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi matching pair. when in the last week of October The enemies of Mesbah-Yazdi have Mesbah-Yazdi's supporters revealed claimed that his appetite for power

WWomenomen andand thethe ElectionElection For the first time in the history of the decisions regarding candidate It is no secret that women make up Islamic Republic of Iran it seems approval in the upcoming elections. a substantial proportion of voters in possible that women may run for This claim about greater female par- the country. As they become more election to the Assembly of Experts. ticipation may well derive from the educated and observant of socio- According to a member of the fact that women are gaining more political realities in Iran, they will Assembly of Experts, there are no and more cultural power in Iran, in undoubtedly begin to assert their constitutional restrictions for fact recent research has shown that rights more forcibly in order to play a women, so long as they can provide the number of women at Iranian uni- more effective role in Iranian political evidence of their expertise in reli- versities has now overtaken the life. gious matters; hence they should number of male students. This have acquired (authority for means that greater numbers of Acknowledging the possible inclu- interpretation of religious laws) or Iranian women will increasingly pos- sion of women in the Assembly of they should otherwise be a Mujtahid, sess the necessary skills and edu- Experts could be a pragmatic reac- basically they should have achieved cational background to reach higher tion by the state to the emergence of the highest degree in Islamic teach- working positions than men. this powerful social class. This may ing. well be one of the reasons behind the sudden change of position This event is significant that took place among the con- because, until now, it has been servative men dominating the impossible for women to partic- ruling class. Nevertheless, ipate in the elections. In the until the names of the candi- last elections for the Assembly dates are published, it is not of Experts, held in 1998, nine possible to say whether it was women put themselves forward simply a claim to boost the as candidates to run for elec- interest and the hope for the tion. Nevertheless, the election, or a truly effective Guardian Council did not change in favour of women. approve them, and it is the very same Guardian Council which will once again make the final

Centre for Iranian Studies, Al Qasimi Building, Elvet Hill Road, Durham DH1 3TU, [email protected] 9 TheThe OutcomeOutcome Possibilities and Different Scenarios

The elections for the Assembly of Yazdi and Ahmadinejad at bay. and influence can shift the balance. experts will be held in less than a In the last ten years Khameini has month and it has been established This political race has two less prob- silently but persistently attempted to by experience that in Iran any politi- able outcomes: either Hashemi will limit and weaken the power of cal event will not be determined until be muscled out, or Ayatollah Yazdi Hashemi and to secure his religious the very last minute. Also there is will lose his gamble. In the first case, position as spiritual leader and while the fact that the Assembly of Experts Hashemi will be further isolated and he has never openly attacked is not an important and popular elec- might even be forced into retire- Hashemi, he has silently approved tion for many Iranians -particularly ment, while Ayatollah Yazdi will his undermining. Khameini has also for the youth. Boycotting the elec- probably be able to secure a high silently approved and supported the tions has never been successful in position within the Assembly of rise of Ahmadinejad and the new Iran but on some occasions in Experts -possibly as vice-chairman- generation of conservatives, in hope Tehran things got serious. In the last and create a powerful and danger- that the weakening of Hashemi and elections for city Councils less than ous axis with Ahmadinejad. the old conservative elite would 45 percent of the voters participated Otherwise, Hashemi's position, strengthen his position. Khameini and in the presidential election last which has been extremely weak- has also demonstrated a level of year out of 8.23 million of people ened by his loss in last year's presi- support toward Ayatollah Yazdi, entitled to vote 3.89 million partici- dential elections, will be consolidat- despite the fact that many friends pated, that is roughly 47 percent. In ed and he will be able to employ and foes have warned that Ayatollah the last Assembly of Experts elec- Yazdis appetite for power has no tion in 1998, 54 percent of entitled limits and Khameini might become people participated. Consequently his next victim. If Khameini is indeed predicting the outcome of the in alliance with Ayatollah Yazdi and Assembly of Experts is extremely Ahmadinejad, he might try to per- difficult if not impossible; however suade Hashemi to abstain, however there are different probabilities that he can not openly commit such an can and should be discussed. action. This might trigger a wider debate regarding his position within At the moment it seems that the real the political field which might turn to clash in this election will be between Khameini's disadvantage. The best the old conservative elite and the instrument of influence in new generation of conservatives. Khameini's Hands is the Guardian The latter support the list of council. Already the Council has Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. Ayatollah deemed the absolute majority of Yazdi, the alleged religious mentor reformist candidates unfit to enter of Ahmadinejad, has somewhat the election as they did in the previ- openly defied the compromise list ous occasions. But the Guardian presented by the old conservative Council has the power to negate the elite and has refused to put Akbar Ayatollah Khamenei votes of different constituency areas Hashemi and Hassan Rohani in his of any city; this tactic has been used list of candidates. This is a clear such success to resist Ayatollah against the reformists in previous attempt by Ayatollah Yazdi to under- Yazdi and Ahmadinejad's pressure. years. An important question is mine Hashmi's position and promote At the moment neither of these sce- would Hashemi and the old conser- his own position within the Assembly narios seem probable, due to the vative elite, allow such an action? of Experts. fact that neither of the two sides are strong enough to achieve such an The best possible scenario is that The old elite have had many dis- outcome, unless one of them pull an both Hashemi and Ayatollah Yazdi agreements and quarrels with ace from its sleeve and force the will find their way to the Assembly of Hashemi during the last 16 years, other side to withdraw. The position Experts and will continue to wage but not only did they not approve of the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali their war within the Assembly, where Ayatollah Yazdis move but were Khameini will be critical in such cir- Hashemi will have the higher ground somewhat outraged by it. Thus cumstances; Khameini is not strong due to his senior and more experi- Hashemi can count on the old elite enough to independently win the enced position but the situation will in order to keep the supporters of Assembly of Experts but his support remain as a political standstill.

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