SAHEL and WEST AFRICA Food Security Update April 2010

SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Food Security Update April 2010

• There continues to be good food availability across the Figure 1. Current food security assessment for April 2010 region. Despite forecasts for below-average rainfall, the 2010/11 season has been off to a good start in most Guinean areas. Assuming these good conditions continue into next month in the southern Sudanian areas, farmers will keep on unloading their crops and there will continue to be adequate supplies of crops on markets across the region.

• On the whole, there has been no major change in the food security situation since last month in high- production areas. Thus, farming areas of the Sudanian zone and Gulf of Guinea are still generally food-secure.

• In contrast, the deterioration in food access in food- deficit areas of northeastern Mali, Niger, and Chad is accelerating. Pastoralists and agropastoralists in these For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, areas are still highly food-insecure despite the please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Source: FEWS NET assistance programs mounted by governments, donors, and NGOs. Conditions could further deteriorate next month with the return of migrant workers and transhumant pastoralists paired with expected rises in market prices. Moreover, with off-season farming activities winding down across the region, there will be a deterioration in nutritional conditions, particularly in the Sahel and, more specifically, in the food-deficit areas of northeastern Mali, northern Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and the far northern reaches of Nigeria.

Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events in West Africa

Better pastoral conditions Transhumance S to N Agricultural hunger season Transhumance N to S Off-season harvest Main season cultivation Main harvest Zones

SAHELIAN Dry season SUDANIAN , Rainy season

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dry season 1st rainy season Dry 2nd rainy season Jan 10 Jan 11 2nd harvest of yams, cocoyams Hunger season 1st harvest (maize) Tuber harvest 2nd harvest

nd Bimodal st GUINEA 2 season cultivation

GULF OF 1 season cultivation Intensive gardening Source: FEWS NET

Current food security situation A look at the current food security situation shows the hunger season about to begin in Guinean areas and harvests of off- season crops winding down. There is still good food availability, but supplies are starting to be less diverse. In fact, the beginning of the hot season has arrested the development of vegetable crops (cabbage, local eggplants, tomatoes, onions,

FEWS NET West Africa FEWS NET Washington Ouagadougou 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: + 226-50 37 47 06 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

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WEST AFRICA Food Security Update April 2010 etc.) and pulses (potatoes and sweet potatoes). Moderate-income and wealthy households with access to power-driven pumps are currently bringing in their last harvests. This decline in off-season crop production will affect the quality of food intake, particularly in the rural areas of the Sahel.

In general, there is adequate food availability across the region to meet needs and while in line with normal seasonal trends, prices are still relatively high compared to nominal averages. Moreover, with the end of off-season farming activities and the gradual onset of the hunger season beginning first in the south and advancing northwards, the already precarious nutritional conditions could further deteriorate as of the beginning of next month, particularly in the Sahel.

The following is a basin-by-basin look at the current situation:

There is an abundance of food crops in markets in the eastern basin (Benin, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad), but prices are still comparatively high. The condition of livestock in all pastoral areas is becoming increasingly alarming, particularly in the Diffa and Tillabery regions of Niger and the Sahelian region of Chad where animals are no longer able to meet their needs for sustenance. They are surviving on the sparse crop residues left by farmers in their fields and a meager supply of woody pasture, which cannot meet their grazing needs. As a result, they are steadily losing weight and as such, are losing market value.

Sources of household income are steadily dwindling with the last harvests of off-season crops, falling prices for livestock, and the arrival of the first wave of what will be a steady stream of migrant workers returning home to their villages beginning in May to plant crops for the 2010/11 growing season. The erosion in last year’s farm income for all wealth groups in farming and agropastoral areas could undercut investment and demand for farm labor in the eastern Sahel for the upcoming season. The current need to earn enough income to purchase food for household consumption will encourage household members to step up their search for local employment, even at this year’s lower wages, instead of investing in planting their own crops. Under these conditions, food access will continue to be the main driver of food insecurity in the eastern basin, and the recovery will take more than one crop year.

Despite the relief programs mounted by governments and donors, there has not been any major change in the food security situation since last month. In general, all food-deficit areas of Niger, Chad, and the far northern reaches of Nigeria are currently moderately food-insecure, while pastoralists and agropastoralists in Niger (mainly in Tahoua, Maradi, Zinder, Diffa, and northern Tillabery) and Chad (particularly in Kanem, Bahr El Gazal, and Hadjer Lamis) are being categorized as highly food-insecure. Like last month, this applies generally to both poor urban and food-deficit rural populations.

A look at conditions in the central basin (Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso) shows the hunger season starting on schedule in southern Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, though food availability is still reportedly good. Bimodal areas and Sudanian areas in the southern reaches of this basin are still generally food-secure thanks to the good harvests in Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and localized areas in Mali and Burkina Faso. The Sahelian regions of Mali and Burkina Faso are moderately food-insecure. In contrast, government programs in the Timbuktu, Gao, and Kidal regions of Mali are able to meet the basic food needs of the local population, but the animal population is currently experiencing serious feeding problems. The Gao region, for example, has been getting shipments of corn from Malanville since February, and any remaining pastoral groups in the area are highly food-insecure. Transhumant pastoralists are expected to return to their homestead by the usual time, in May/June, at which point they will need to buy provisions on local markets. This makes it necessary to strengthen local inventories in these areas in May and June as a way of easing any food insecurity problems arising as a result of a slowdown in trade.

There is still adequate food availability in the western basin (Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone) thanks to last year’s good harvests and regular rice imports. The official marketing season for groundnuts, the main cash crop in this area, is already underway in Senegal and Gambia. This year, sales of cashews in Guinea Bissau were lucrative for farmers. Pastoral conditions in Mauritania and northern Senegal are generally good, with this year’s attractive prices creating highly favorable terms of trade for pastoralist buyers of livestock-grain in both countries. Thus, on the whole, the income brought in by sales of different cash crops is helping to ensure a good food situation for this group of households. As a result, in general, most parts of this basin are currently food secure. There are areas with moderate levels of food insecurity in the following transhumant pastoral areas: Mauritania with poor pasture growth and development, last year’s flood-stricken and pest-infested areas of Guinea Bissau, the Farim district in the Oio

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WEST AFRICA Food Security Update April 2010 region where villages with the worst infestations of Homoxyrrhespes puntipennis lost 90 percent of their crops, the Contuboel, Bambadinca, and Bafata districts in the Bafata region, the Tite district in the Quinara region, and the Catio district in the Tombali region.

In Guinea, the latest increase in oil prices in early March of this year from 5,000 to 6,500 GF/liter, paired with a rise in the world market price of rice, have driven up the price of imported rice. The result is an across-the-board rise in prices for both food (grain, tubers, meat, fish, etc.) and nonfood items, complicating the food and nutritional situation for the entire population.

Progress of the 2009/10 growing season An examination of the satellite rainfall estimate (RFE) shows major rainfall activity throughout the month of March in all Gulf of Guinea countries, extending westward into Sierra Leone, and northward as far as the southern Sahel, particularly into southwestern Burkina Faso and the far southern reaches of Mali and Chad. The second and third dekads of the month saw especially heavy rainfall, bringing rainfall totals for the month above the average in most affected areas. However, a few areas concentrated mainly in a narrow band skirting the coast in southern Nigeria and scattered parts of Togo, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Liberia are reporting rainfall deficits for the month (Figures 2 and 3).

Figure 2. Satellite rainfall estimate of cumulative rainfall Figure 3. Satellite rainfall estimate of rainfall anomalies totals for March 2010 (mm) for March 2010 as a percentage of the average

Source: NOAA/USGS/FEWS NET Source: NOAA/USGS/FEWS NET

According to the short-term forecast, all Gulf of Guinea countries within a narrow belt extending from Nigeria into Sierra Leone and including southeastern Guinea will continue to see heavy rainfall over the week of April 7th through April 14th. There will be especially heavy rainfall activity in Liberia, in the southern border areas of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, in the area between southwestern Burkina Faso and the far northern reaches of Côte d’Ivoire, in Togo, and in southern Nigeria. According to this forecast, southern Nigeria should get some relief after last month’s rainfall deficit. Thus, a look at start-of- season conditions in the Gulf of Guinea countries shows good, relatively well-distributed, rainfall in both time and space, contradicting long-range forecasts for February through April and March through May. This bodes well for a good start to the main growing season for rain-fed crops in the Guinean areas. The water situation for yam and cassava crops is good, ensuring good crop growth and development. However, with National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center forecasts assuming that the progress of the growing season will be affected by rainfall deficits over the coming months, the situation bears close monitoring.

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WEST AFRICA Food Security Update April 2010

According to updated El Niño forecasts as of March 31st, Figure 4. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of the most models are still predicting that this phenomenon probability of below-normal, above-normal, or near-normal will weaken over the next few months. Long-range rainfall for the period from May through July of 2010, as of NOAA forecasts for the period from May through July April predict below-average rainfall for the western Sahel and a small area in the center of the Sahelian zone of Chad (Figure 4). In contrast, the forecast is for average to slightly above-average rainfall in the central reaches of the Sahel, including: eastern Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Nigeria, and southern Chad. Forecasts for the Gulf of Guinea countries for the period from May to July are still predicting below-average rainfall conditions towards the middle and end of the main growing season

(Figure 5). The materialization of these long-range Source: NOAA/FEWS NET forecasts would mean a poor start-of-season in the Figure 5. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of the western Sahel (southern Mali, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, probability of below-normal, above-normal, or near-normal and Mauritania) and a good start-of-season in the rainfall for the period from May through July of 2010, as of eastern Sahel. So far, the main growing season in the April Gulf of Guinea countries is off to a good start, but forecasts are still calling for below-average rainfall, particularly in the southern reaches of the Gulf countries.

Markets and trade There are plentiful supplies in rural and urban markets across the region thanks to large shipments of food crops from surplus areas (Sudanian and Gulf of Guinea areas) to rural and urban markets in deficit areas (Sahelian areas in general and the eastern Sahel in particular). As a result, there are still adequate market Source: NOAA/FEWS NET supplies six months after the end of the harvest season. Thus, in contrast to forecasts for southern Sudanian areas, if the good start-of-season conditions for the 2010/11 growing season in most Guinean areas continue into next month, farmers will keep on unloading their crops and the adequate supply of crops on markets across the region should continue.

In general, prices are currently in line with normal seasonal trends. Food prices are generally stable, particularly prices for rice. However, price levels are generally above the nominal five-year average, except in the western basin where they are fluctuating around the nominal five-year seasonal average.

Corn crops are still the main driver of the price stability and price trends reported all across the region, thanks to last year’s good harvests and the current smooth flow of regional trade.

However, the current state of market equilibrium is still precarious, particularly in the eastern basin. Any disruption in trade could seriously hurt remote deficit areas where grain is sold market-to-market and without the build-up of any inventories, shortages are likely to trigger localized surges in prices.

The following is a basin-by-basin look at the status of markets and trade:

Cross-border trade flows in the eastern basin continue unimpeded, sustained by the business strategy of middle-income farming households in Niger and northern Nigeria, who realized very early on in the year that grain trading offers them good opportunities and that holding onto livestock is risky. Thus, they proceeded to sell off their livestock to raise capital and, since last October, have been engaged in grain marketing activities between surplus and deficit areas. These trade flows, the price gradients or incentives for trade between surplus and deficit areas, and the good level of inventories have

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WEST AFRICA Food Security Update April 2010 generally helped keep prices stable or keep price increases in line with normal seasonal trends. In grain-short areas of Niger, Chad, and the far northern reaches of Nigeria this holds true. With the onset of the rains, these households will buy new animals and inputs to carry on with their farming activities.

In general this year, nominal March prices for corn were down sharply in all reference markets in this basin with the exception of the Kano wholesale market in Nigeria, where they were up from March of last year and above the nominal five-year average for the same time of year. March prices for millet were moderately high compared with last year’s nominal price levels (7 to 15 percent higher) and the nominal average for the same time of year.

However, this price stability and downward trend in prices for corn and other grain crops through the end of March could be negatively affected by the current trend in the exchange rate for the naira in Nigeria vis-à-vis the CFA franc in Niger (Figure 6). Figure 6. Exchange rate for the naira vis-à-vis the In fact, the value of the naira has been steadily rising against the CFA franc (XOF) CFA franc, and the current black market exchange rate used by market traders is at 311 nairas per 1000 CFA francs, compared with last month’s rate of 320 nairas per 1000 CFA francs. This has already caused the price of imported millet from Nigeria on the Maradi market to rise by roughly six percent, or from 16,500 francs per 100 kg sack as of the end of March to 17,500 francs by mid-April. In the face of this trend, the Maradi market is beginning to sell imported corn from Benin, and Niger is starting to import significant quantities of grain from Burkina Faso and Mali. However, a stronger naira could help pastoralists by reviving Nigerian demand for livestock from Niger and raising or Source: www.oanda.com stabilizing what are currently falling prices for livestock.

Moreover, there is good reason to fear a tightening of grain supplies on secondary markets in grain-deficit areas in May, once small-scale traders, or long-time-farmers-turned-grain-traders after selling their livestock, pull out of the market to return to their main occupation with the fast-approaching onset of the rainy season, using their capital to buy seeds and livestock.

Despite plentiful market supplies of foodstuffs and the small number of grain-short households in the central basin, food prices are still high. Thus, nominal millet prices are up by 15 percent from March of last year on the Ouagadougou market in Burkina Faso and by 6 percent on the Segou market in Mali. Prices on these same markets are 35 and 19 percent, respectively, above the nominal five-year average for the same time of year. In general, corn prices are down from March of last year (by 13 percent on the Sikasso market in Mali, 18 percent in Dapaong, and 44 percent on the Kara market in Togo). Markets in the southern and central reaches of the basin are getting adequate grain supplies through traditional trade channels. Rumors of active civil security threats in Gao have not yet had any visible effect on market behavior.

In the western basin, most current business transactions on rural markets in Senegal, particularly on markets in major crop- producing areas, involve groundnuts. As a result, supplies of local grain crops are more or less average. Local demand in Senegal is being satisfied, but there are no large-scale exports to Mauritania. Market grain availability is improving at a moderately good pace, and price levels are average and stable.

In general, nominal grain prices for March of this year in major grain-producing areas were down from the same time last year (by 20 percent in Kaolack for millet crops and by 10 percent in Ziguinchor, Senegal, for corn crops). Nominal March prices for millet were also under the five-year average for the same time of year (by 11 percent).

Rice prices in the western basin are still stable. However, in the face of the jump in oil prices in Guinea from 5,000 GF to 6,500 GF/liter between late February and early March of this year, nominal prices for imported rice also went up, from 2,950 GF in February to 3,360 GF in March. Thus, prices for March of this year were up 12 percent from the same time last year and 15 percent above the nominal five-year average for the same time of year.

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