Israel and Middle East News Update

Thursday, March 18

Headlines: ● Netanyahu: Our Polls Tell Us We Have Enough for Coalition ● Emirati Minister: UAE Won't Get Involved in Israeli Election ● US Memo Details Biden Administration's Palestinian 'Reset' ● Abbas Rival Dahlan Says President Failed Palestinians ● Palestinians Get Vaccine Doses Through WHO Program ● Receives Formal Letter From ICC Informing of Probe ● Rouhani Says Hardliners Sabotage Goal To Lift Sanctions ● Lebanon President To PM: Form Cabinet Now or Quit

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “A Cold Shoulder’’ - By Shimrit Meir

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Planting the Seeds of No-Confidence’’ - By Yuval Karni

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President Editor: Yousef Bashir News Excerpts March 18, 2021 Axios Netanyahu Seeks a Majority To Block His Corruption Trial Israelis will go to the polls next week for the fourth time in two years with Prime Minister Netanyahu running an aggressive campaign against a splintered opposition. Netanyahu's path to a 61-seat majority would require him to form an ultra-right-wing government, dependent on the votes of Jewish supremacists and anti-LGBT and pro-annexation members of . With a majority, Netanyahu could pass a law or take other steps to delay or end his corruption trial. He denies that's his aim, but prospective members of his coalition have announced they would support it. Current polls show Netanyahu’s bloc at 58 seats, but things could easily shift in his direction on election day. The 3.25% electoral threshold means several small parties will either win around 4 seats or be left out entirely. Voter fatigue, particularly on the left, also makes turnout unpredictable. Dig Deeper ‘‘Netanyahu Courts Arab Voters as 'Abu Yair'’ (Al-Monitor)

Ynet News Emirati Minister: UAE Won't Get Involved in Israeli Election The UAE will not get involved in Israeli electioneering, an Emirati minister of state said, in pointed comments amid new reports that Netanyahu was planning to visit ahead of the elections. Netanyahu, in power since 2009, has sought to burnish his credentials as Israel's leading statesman as part of his re-election pitch. A UAE visit could have aided that effort. "From the UAE's perspective, the purpose of the Abrahamic Accords is to provide a robust strategic foundation to foster peace and prosperity with Israel and in the wider region," tweeted Anwar Gargash, advisor to UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed. The UAE had never confirmed the visit but said that it was setting up a $10b investment fund aimed at strategic sectors in Israel. Dig Deeper ‘‘Israel-Jordan Tensions Rise Over Canceled Trips and Campaign Rhetoric’’ (Axios)

Jerusalem Post US Memo Details Biden Administration's Palestinian 'Reset' The Biden administration will reportedly push for a two-state solution based on the pre-1967 lines, with mutually agreed upon land swaps, reinstating US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to more traditionally held positions than those of former president Trump. A memo titled “The US Palestinian Reset and the Path Forward,” which was revealed to the Abu Dhabi- based The National, also showed that the Biden administration is planning on announcing a $15m aid package in coronavirus-related humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians as early as this month. While behind closed doors, Netanyahu has participated in peace negotiations based on the 1967 lines, publicly the formula is not very popular in Israel, particularly among the right wing, which is expected to further expand in the Knesset after next week’s election.

2 Ynet News Abbas Rival Dahlan Says President Failed Palestinians Mohammed Dahlan, a former top Palestinian official exiled in the UAE, branded his rival president Mahmoud Abbas a failed leader in an interview ahead of Palestinian elections. The Gaza-born Dahlan did not announce his candidacy to replace Abbas but voiced his commitment towards the "governing of the Palestinian people". "Under Abbas's reign, divisions grew stronger and living conditions became deplorable," Dahlan said from Abu Dhabi where he is a security adviser to UAE strongman Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. Abbas, who took power following the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, "failed to do what he promised", Dahlan added. Convicted of corruption by a Palestinian court, Dahlan moved to UAE a decade ago but has sought to raise his profile in the Palestinian territories in recent months. The 85- year-old Abbas has not indicated whether he intends to run again. Dig Deeper ‘‘Dahlan Courts Gaza, Hamas with Vaccine Deliveries Ahead of Elections’’ (Al-Monitor)

Associated Press Palestinians Get Vaccine Doses Through WHO Program The Palestinian Authority (PA) said it will receive just over 60,000 coronavirus vaccine doses over the next 48 hours, the first shipment provided by a World Health Organization partnership aimed at helping poor countries. That’s only enough doses to vaccinate 31,000 people out of a population of nearly 5 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Israel, which has faced criticism for not sharing more of its supplies with the Palestinians, has already vaccinated 5 million people, more than half of its population, and has largely reopened its economy. An Israeli security official confirmed the shipment, which arrived in Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport, and said about a third of the vaccines would be sent to Gaza. Until now, the PA had received 2,000 doses from Israel and acquired another 10,000 doses of the Russian-made Sputnik V vaccine. Authorities in the Gaza Strip, ruled by Hamas, have received 60,000 doses in shipments organized by Mohammed Dahlan. Dig Deeper ‘‘Settler Leader: Use PA Terror Funds To Vaccinate Palestinians’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Times of Israel Israel Receives Formal Letter From ICC Informing of Probe Israel has reportedly received a letter from the International Criminal Court formally detailing the scope of its war crimes investigation against Israel and the Palestinians, Channel 13 reported. According to the report, the letter arrived over the weekend and the National Security Council has already met to begin formulating Israel’s response. The report said the brief one-and-a-half page letter briefly laid out the three main areas it intends to cover: the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas, Israeli settlement policy, and the 2018 Great March of Return protests, a series of violent demonstrations along Gaza’s border with Israel that left dozens of Palestinians dead. Neither Israel, not the ICC published the letter or acknowledged it had been sent. Israel reportedly has 30 days to respond, the report said, adding that Jerusalem is leaning toward doing so after largely refusing to cooperate with the ICC until now. However, Israel is expected to use its response as an opportunity to once again voice the argument that the ICC has no jurisdiction to hear the case.

3 Reuters Rouhani Says Hardliners Sabotage Goal To Lift Sanctions Iran’s pragmatist president accused hardline opponents of obstructing efforts to lift US sanctions, in remarks that demonstrate how an upcoming election in Iran is now looming over the new US administration’s plan for a thaw. “It is a great betrayal of the Iranian nation if any faction or person delays the end of the sanctions even for one hour,” Hassan Rouhani said in televised remarks. “The small minority that is obstructing this path needs to stop its destructive act. If it stops … the government can break the sanctions,” Rouhani added without elaborating. So far, Iran and the Biden administration are at loggerheads over which side should move first to revive the agreement, with Tehran demanding Washington first lift sanctions and Washington calling on Tehran first to resume compliance with the deal. France’s foreign minister blamed Iranian pre-election politics for hindering the nuclear deal’s revival. The stalled nuclear deal has been a flagship policy for Rouhani, a pragmatist who won landslide victories in the last two presidential elections against hardline opponents by promising to open Iran’s economy up to the world. Dig Deeper ‘‘Scoop: Inside the US- Israel talks on Iran’’ (Axios)

Associated Press Lebanon President To PM: Form Cabinet Now or Quit Lebanon’s president called on the prime minister-designate to form a government immediately or step aside as the country plunges deeper into economic crisis. In turn, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri swiftly challenged President Michel Aoun to step down, a sign of a prolonged political crisis. The intractable political battle comes against the backdrop of an economic crash that is proving to be the most serious challenge to the small country’s stability since its 15-year civil war ended in 1990. In a televised statement, Aoun said that Cabinet lists proposed by Hariri, who was named to the post of premier last October, did not meet the minimum requirements needed to preserve national accord. Aoun urged Hariri to meet him at the presidential palace and work together on forming a government or step aside if they cannot agree. The call seems an attempt to deflect blame for months-long political battle in which both sides have traded accusations of obstruction. Dig Deeper ‘‘France, Others Set To Increase Pressure on Lebanon's Politicians, Diplomat Says’’ (Reuters)

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – March 18, 2021 A Cold Shoulder By Shimrit Meir ● Netanyahu wanted to build his current election campaign on two victory pictures: vaccines and peace. There is no need to evince the vaccines; we all took a selfie with our bared shoulder. But not everyone has had a chance yet to enjoy the fruits of peace personally. That is why Netanyahu insisted, time and time again, on holding a first official state visit to the UAE [before the election]. Maybe he thought that the sort of pressure that had worked so well with Pfizer’s CEO would also work with UAE Crown Prince Mohammad bin Zayed. ● Netanyahu might ultimately form the most right-wing government in Israeli history, but his current campaign is his most [politically] centrist ever, with its messages about peace with Arab countries and equality for the Arab citizens of Israel. One of the places that Netanyahu visited yesterday was the Druze village, Kisra, in the Upper Galilee. While the words “love,” “equality” and “unity” appeared in several languages on the screen behind him, Netanyahu said: “When you send me knafa, I view that as an act of sabotage,” making a dad joke about his diet. He spoke at length about the vaccines while, for some reason, the French word “amour” appeared on the screen behind him. He only briefly touched on the peace agreements, which he usually talks about at length in his meetings with Arab voters. The push notifications yesterday reported that the Emiratis were angry, but he appeared to be even angrier. ● Officials in Abu Dhabi said that they repeatedly had tried to gently decline [Netanyahu’s request for a meeting] before they dispatched their former foreign minister to write on Twitter that the “UAE will not be a part in any internal electioneering in Israel.” They said that they have nothing against Netanyahu, personally. After all, he is their historic partner and he may also be their future partner, but he should have realized that there are some things that the Emiratis were amenable to doing during Trump’s term in office and are currently less inclined to do now that Biden is in office. One doesn’t simply volunteer to take part in someone else’s election campaign free of charge. One expects to get something in return, preferably from the Americans, and bin Zayed currently stands to gain nothing from doing so. Quite to the contrary. ● The Biden administration has acted maturely thus far and, as opposed to the previous administration, has scrupulously refrained from meddling in the Israeli election. They know that they have no way of winning here; working against Netanyahu will only help Netanyahu. However, the message that was quietly conveyed to the Emiratis was clear: the US has a new president, even if the Israelis are still in denial; events that have a Trumpian air to them, such as lavishly hosting Netanyahu on the eve of an election, aren’t going to win the Emiratis any points in Washington. Netanyahu should have taken the very blunt hint that the Jordanians gave him last week. No matter how angry he might have been, King Abdullah, who has close ties with the UAE and needs its economic support, would never have prevented Netanyahu from holding an official visit in the UAE had it been his impression that Mohammed bin Zayed was eager to host Netanyahu. 5 ● It seems that the Emiratis are still suffering from the trauma of the negative media coverage [in Israel] that accompanied the flow of Israeli tourists to the UAE, and from the fact that the people traveling to Dubai while the pandemic was raging were perceived here as acting with of out-of-touch hedonism, importing coronavirus mutations and, to a certain extent, Likud-supporters. A Bibi-ist vacation. The Emiratis made a real effort to maintain their relationships with other public figures in Israel, such as the president and the cabinet ministers from Blue and White, despite their lesser political relevance. But what they want most is to avoid being sucked into the bubbling cauldron of Israeli politics. We will welcome everyone like kings after the election, they say. Just leave us out of it.

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – March 18, 2021 Planting the Seeds of No-Confidence By Yuval Karni ● Throughout the course of his years in office, Prime Minister Netanyahu has undermined the legitimacy of the various law enforcement agencies—the police, the State Attorney’s Office and the Attorney General’s Office. Netanyahu did not do that because he had discovered flaws in those organizations; nor did he do that because he felt that the time had come for major reforms in the law enforcement agencies (reforms certainly are needed, and some criticism is certainly legitimate). Rather, he did so for one reason only: the criminal investigations into his alleged actions and the decision to indict him. Had Netanyahu’s critique been made in good faith, he would have introduced reforms or would have demanded that changes be made before he became the subject of an investigation under the purview of the above three organizations. In his attempt to have the cases against him dismissed—at least dismissed by the public—he has attacked the organizations that were tasked with overseeing the investigations and the pursuant legal decisions. Ultimately, everything is personal. ● Now, just a few days before the election, the Likud has decided to place another state organization in the pillory: the Central Elections Committee. In the last few elections, several Likud backbenchers made allegations against the committee about voter fraud in the Arab sector. Their primary goal was to have cameras installed in polling stations in Arab cities, towns and villages, arguing that there was rampant voter fraud there. Yesterday those efforts were ratcheted up a notch, and Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin said that he has no confidence in the Central Elections Committee. Levin, who fills the most stately position in the Knesset, yesterday accused [Justice Hanan Melcer, who served as] the chairman of the Central Elections Committee in 2019 of making improper rulings. “That was very grave,” said Levin. ● When asked whether he currently has faith in the Central Elections Committee, Levin said: “We trust nothing.” To the best of my recollection, the were fair and honestly held, with a handful of local incidents that had no impact on the final results. No Israeli election has ever been won because of either a well- oiled voter fraud machine or negligence by the Central Elections Committee, which changed the results of the election in defiance the public’s will. Would anyone in the Likud even consider attacking the Central Elections Committee at present in order to undermine its legitimacy if party officials not afraid that the results might not be favorable for Netanyahu? ● Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Liberman said that this [the attacks on the legitimacy of the Central Elections Committee] is [part of] an orderly plan by Netanyahu: he wants to undermine public confidence in the Central Elections Committee so as to be able to send his supports out to storm the Knesset, operating on the very same model of the Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol. Liberman spoke last night with the Knesset Officer to make sure that the Knesset Guard was prepared for that scenario. The United States of America is the strongest democracy in the world.

7 ● That democracy was tainted by demonstrators and lawbreakers who refused to accept the election results, made allegations about voter fraud without a shred of evidence and in the end tried to sabotage the democratic process of presidential succession. Israel is also a strong democracy. We must not end the fourth election in Israel with anything similar to the insane scene we saw play out in Washington.

8