Israel and Middle East News Update Thursday, March 18 Headlines: ● Netanyahu: Our Polls Tell Us We Have Enough for Coalition ● Emirati Minister: UAE Won't Get Involved in Israeli Election ● US Memo Details Biden Administration's Palestinian 'Reset' ● Abbas Rival Dahlan Says President Failed Palestinians ● Palestinians Get Vaccine Doses Through WHO Program ● Israel Receives Formal Letter From ICC Informing of Probe ● Rouhani Says Hardliners Sabotage Goal To Lift Sanctions ● Lebanon President To PM: Form Cabinet Now or Quit Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “A Cold Shoulder’’ - By Shimrit Meir ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Planting the Seeds of No-Confidence’’ - By Yuval Karni S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President Editor: Yousef Bashir News Excerpts March 18, 2021 Axios Netanyahu Seeks a Majority To Block His Corruption Trial Israelis will go to the polls next week for the fourth time in two years with Prime Minister Netanyahu running an aggressive campaign against a splintered opposition. Netanyahu's path to a 61-seat majority would require him to form an ultra-right-wing government, dependent on the votes of Jewish supremacists and anti-LGBT and pro-annexation members of Knesset. With a majority, Netanyahu could pass a law or take other steps to delay or end his corruption trial. He denies that's his aim, but prospective members of his coalition have announced they would support it. Current polls show Netanyahu’s bloc at 58 seats, but things could easily shift in his direction on election day. The 3.25% electoral threshold means several small parties will either win around 4 seats or be left out entirely. Voter fatigue, particularly on the left, also makes turnout unpredictable. Dig Deeper ‘‘Netanyahu Courts Arab Voters as 'Abu Yair'’ (Al-Monitor) Ynet News Emirati Minister: UAE Won't Get Involved in Israeli Election The UAE will not get involved in Israeli electioneering, an Emirati minister of state said, in pointed comments amid new reports that Netanyahu was planning to visit ahead of the elections. Netanyahu, in power since 2009, has sought to burnish his credentials as Israel's leading statesman as part of his re-election pitch. A UAE visit could have aided that effort. "From the UAE's perspective, the purpose of the Abrahamic Accords is to provide a robust strategic foundation to foster peace and prosperity with Israel and in the wider region," tweeted Anwar Gargash, advisor to UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed. The UAE had never confirmed the visit but said that it was setting up a $10b investment fund aimed at strategic sectors in Israel. Dig Deeper ‘‘Israel-Jordan Tensions Rise Over Canceled Trips and Campaign Rhetoric’’ (Axios) Jerusalem Post US Memo Details Biden Administration's Palestinian 'Reset' The Biden administration will reportedly push for a two-state solution based on the pre-1967 lines, with mutually agreed upon land swaps, reinstating US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to more traditionally held positions than those of former president Trump. A memo titled “The US Palestinian Reset and the Path Forward,” which was revealed to the Abu Dhabi- based The National, also showed that the Biden administration is planning on announcing a $15m aid package in coronavirus-related humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians as early as this month. While behind closed doors, Netanyahu has participated in peace negotiations based on the 1967 lines, publicly the formula is not very popular in Israel, particularly among the right wing, which is expected to further expand in the Knesset after next week’s election. 2 Ynet News Abbas Rival Dahlan Says President Failed Palestinians Mohammed Dahlan, a former top Palestinian official exiled in the UAE, branded his rival president Mahmoud Abbas a failed leader in an interview ahead of Palestinian elections. The Gaza-born Dahlan did not announce his candidacy to replace Abbas but voiced his commitment towards the "governing of the Palestinian people". "Under Abbas's reign, divisions grew stronger and living conditions became deplorable," Dahlan said from Abu Dhabi where he is a security adviser to UAE strongman Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. Abbas, who took power following the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, "failed to do what he promised", Dahlan added. Convicted of corruption by a Palestinian court, Dahlan moved to UAE a decade ago but has sought to raise his profile in the Palestinian territories in recent months. The 85- year-old Abbas has not indicated whether he intends to run again. Dig Deeper ‘‘Dahlan Courts Gaza, Hamas with Vaccine Deliveries Ahead of Elections’’ (Al-Monitor) Associated Press Palestinians Get Vaccine Doses Through WHO Program The Palestinian Authority (PA) said it will receive just over 60,000 coronavirus vaccine doses over the next 48 hours, the first shipment provided by a World Health Organization partnership aimed at helping poor countries. That’s only enough doses to vaccinate 31,000 people out of a population of nearly 5 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Israel, which has faced criticism for not sharing more of its supplies with the Palestinians, has already vaccinated 5 million people, more than half of its population, and has largely reopened its economy. An Israeli security official confirmed the shipment, which arrived in Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport, and said about a third of the vaccines would be sent to Gaza. Until now, the PA had received 2,000 doses from Israel and acquired another 10,000 doses of the Russian-made Sputnik V vaccine. Authorities in the Gaza Strip, ruled by Hamas, have received 60,000 doses in shipments organized by Mohammed Dahlan. Dig Deeper ‘‘Settler Leader: Use PA Terror Funds To Vaccinate Palestinians’’ (Jerusalem Post) Times of Israel Israel Receives Formal Letter From ICC Informing of Probe Israel has reportedly received a letter from the International Criminal Court formally detailing the scope of its war crimes investigation against Israel and the Palestinians, Channel 13 reported. According to the report, the letter arrived over the weekend and the National Security Council has already met to begin formulating Israel’s response. The report said the brief one-and-a-half page letter briefly laid out the three main areas it intends to cover: the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas, Israeli settlement policy, and the 2018 Great March of Return protests, a series of violent demonstrations along Gaza’s border with Israel that left dozens of Palestinians dead. Neither Israel, not the ICC published the letter or acknowledged it had been sent. Israel reportedly has 30 days to respond, the report said, adding that Jerusalem is leaning toward doing so after largely refusing to cooperate with the ICC until now. However, Israel is expected to use its response as an opportunity to once again voice the argument that the ICC has no jurisdiction to hear the case. 3 Reuters Rouhani Says Hardliners Sabotage Goal To Lift Sanctions Iran’s pragmatist president accused hardline opponents of obstructing efforts to lift US sanctions, in remarks that demonstrate how an upcoming election in Iran is now looming over the new US administration’s plan for a thaw. “It is a great betrayal of the Iranian nation if any faction or person delays the end of the sanctions even for one hour,” Hassan Rouhani said in televised remarks. “The small minority that is obstructing this path needs to stop its destructive act. If it stops … the government can break the sanctions,” Rouhani added without elaborating. So far, Iran and the Biden administration are at loggerheads over which side should move first to revive the agreement, with Tehran demanding Washington first lift sanctions and Washington calling on Tehran first to resume compliance with the deal. France’s foreign minister blamed Iranian pre-election politics for hindering the nuclear deal’s revival. The stalled nuclear deal has been a flagship policy for Rouhani, a pragmatist who won landslide victories in the last two presidential elections against hardline opponents by promising to open Iran’s economy up to the world. Dig Deeper ‘‘Scoop: Inside the US- Israel talks on Iran’’ (Axios) Associated Press Lebanon President To PM: Form Cabinet Now or Quit Lebanon’s president called on the prime minister-designate to form a government immediately or step aside as the country plunges deeper into economic crisis. In turn, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri swiftly challenged President Michel Aoun to step down, a sign of a prolonged political crisis. The intractable political battle comes against the backdrop of an economic crash that is proving to be the most serious challenge to the small country’s stability since its 15-year civil war ended in 1990. In a televised statement, Aoun said that Cabinet lists proposed by Hariri, who was named to the post of premier last October, did not meet the minimum requirements needed to preserve national accord. Aoun urged Hariri to meet him at the presidential palace and work together on forming a government or step aside if they cannot agree. The call seems an attempt to deflect blame for months-long political battle in which both sides have traded accusations of obstruction. Dig Deeper ‘‘France, Others Set To Increase Pressure on Lebanon's Politicians, Diplomat Says’’ (Reuters) 4 Yedioth Ahronoth – March 18, 2021 A Cold Shoulder By Shimrit Meir ● Netanyahu wanted to build his current election campaign on two victory pictures: vaccines and peace. There is no need to evince the vaccines; we all took a selfie with our bared shoulder. But not everyone has had a chance yet to enjoy the fruits of peace personally. That is why Netanyahu insisted, time and time again, on holding a first official state visit to the UAE [before the election].