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Canada Perspective 2019

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Canada Perspective 2019 CANADA Global economic Space markets are Investors showing a expansion continues, resilient and rents bias to quality as the but risks are growing are rising cycle matures BENTALL KENNEDY, 2019 CANADA PERSPECTIVE | A We would like to Altus Group, Archival Economic Data RBC Capital Markets, RBC Economics acknowledge the St. Louis Fed (ALFRED), Avison Young, Research, RBC Financial Group, RealNet BMO Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, Canada, REALPAC, Recode, Residential assistance we received Bloomberg, BuildForce Canada, CB Construction Council of Ontario, Ryerson from the following Insights, CBRE, CBRE Econometric Centre for the Study of Commercial Advisors, Calgary Economic Development, Activity (CSCA), Statista, Statistics Canada, parties in completing Canada Mortgage and Housing Scotiabank Economics, SunTrust Robinson this report: Corporation (CMHC), Canadian Real Humphrey, TD Economics, US Department Estate Association (CREA), Canada Visa, of Transportation, Urbanation, WeWork. CMLS Financial, Colliers International, Conference Board of Canada, CoStar, We would also like to thank the many Cushman & Wakefield, eMarketer, individuals who are employed by these Emergent Research, Environics Analytics, parties as well as the real estate owners Global Coworking Unconference and managers who helped us with Conference (GCUC), Globe & Mail, Haver insights and guidance along the way. Analytics, Gluskin Sheff, Hofstra University, International Council of Shopping Centres The information and statistics contained (ICSC), International Monetary Fund in this report were obtained from sources (IMF), J.C. Williams Group, Jones Lang deemed reliable. However, Bentall La Salle, KPMG, MSCI REALPAC Canada, Kennedy Group does not guarantee Macrobond, Montreal Institute for Learning the accuracy or completeness of the Algorithm (MILA), L2 Inc., National information presented, nor does it Autonomous Vehicle Technology and assume any responsibility or liability Innovator Directory, National Association for any errors or omissions. All opinions of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT), expressed and data provided herein are National Council of Real Estate Investment subject to change without notice. Fiduciaries (NCREIF), National Post, Prequin, Organisation for Economic Co- This report cannot be reproduced in operation and Development (OECD), part or in full in any format without the prior written consent of Bentall Kennedy Group. Bentall 5, Vancouver, BC BBENTALL | BENTALL KENNEDY, KENNEDY, 2019 2019 CANADA CANADA PERSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE Contents 2 Executive overview Key takeaways for real estate investors heading into 2019 4 Global economy What do asymmetrical risks mean for the global expansion? 8 Canadian economy Steady growth, but downside risks building 14 Special topic: demographics A deep dive into surging population growth 16 Office Tech clusters, co-working and how technology is changing the decision making process 22 Retail Will online grocery disrupt needs-based retail formats? 28 Industrial Urban infill becoming a critical component of modern logistics 34 Multi-residential Confluence of factors threaten new supply 40 Capital markets Above trend returns, but are they sustainable? BENTALL KENNEDY, 2019 CANADA PERSPECTIVE 01. EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Executive overview Up-in-quality as cycle matures Tour KPMG, Montreal, QC Investor sentiment As we look ahead to 2019, the Global growth has peaked but remains strong outlook for global economic remains solid growth remains solid. But there Despite increased headwinds and supported by are increasing signs that growth is emerging signs of slower economic solid real estate slowing and is more fragile as trade activity, mid-3.0% global GDP growth fundamentals and tensions linger between the U.S. and is anticipated for 2019. China. Financial markets are more healthy job growth, volatile as they grapple with some U.S. growth resilient but downside major global central banks steadily Strong stateside demand combined economic risks are tightening monetary policy. Barring with the expected approval of the an unforeseen financial shock, United States-Mexico-Canada building. mid-2019 will mark the longest U.S. Agreement (USMCA) will support economic expansion in history. And, slower but steady Canadian growth. although real estate fundamentals in Canada are solid, there are many “Help wanted” pressing questions for investors. Record low unemployment and a How much further can this economic mismatch of skills will become the expansion run? Have real estate biggest challenge for Canadian values peaked or is there a new businesses. pricing paradigm for institutional quality real estate? How to invest Immigration is a boon for growth prudently at this stage of the cycle? Canadian cities are capitalizing on the opportunity to attract economic What do we see in the year ahead? migrants. Signs of a growing populist Here are the key takeaways from this wave threaten this key labour source. year’s Canada Perspective. 2 | BENTALL KENNEDY, 2019 CANADA PERSPECTIVE KEY TAKEAWAYS: THE YEAR AHEAD KEY TAKEAWAYS: Global growth steady Real estate fundamentals as Not enough purpose-built rental but more fragile strong as ever apartments 1 Business optimism and consumer A myriad of tailwinds for demand confidence remain high, near historic have accelerated rent growth. Supply U.S. growth levels, which bode well for real is up, but rising land and construction remains solid estate demand. Developers remain costs and an inefficient approval 2 disciplined. process make new construction very challenging. Record low Technology’s impact on knowledge unemployment work accelerates Investors exhibiting an “up-in- 3 Not only is tech affecting the demand quality” bias for space, but it’s changing the future But that hasn’t slowed the pace of Immigration positive of work, office space design and investment activity, which is expected for growth building operations. to reach a new all-time high in 2018. 4 Strong momentum should continue Cyclical headwinds add to negative into 2019. Property fundamentals sentiment in retail 5 as strong as ever Borrowers are adjusting well to higher Ample availability of low-cost debt interest rates but at the expense of Favourable lending conditions should consumer spending. Grocers are continue to provide liquidity. Technology impacts ramping up digital offerings. 6 knowledge work Industrial and multi-residential Not enough industrial real estate outperform Supply constraints and steady These sectors should continue to Slowing consumption logistics demand will continue to generate the highest returns across 7 a headwind for retail exert upward pressure on rents, property types as they offer the especially for urban infill locations. greatest prospects for rent growth Institutional investors are clamouring and remain under-allocated in many Short supply of for increased exposure to the sector. portfolios. 8 industrial real estate Operational excellence will be paramount to performance Short supply of Healthy operating fundamentals 9 purpose-built and strong investor demand for real rental apartments estate should help support valuations in the face of higher interest rates. Investor sentiment Future returns will become harder to 10 remains strong come by as valuations have inched higher. But supply-side constraints and steady tenant demand will limit Ample availability of the downside risk of space market 11 low-cost debt dislocation. Investors will need to exercise patience and prudence Best opportunities when navigating this maturing cycle. are in industrial and 12 multi-residential Operational 13 excellence is critical 301 College Street, Toronto, ON BENTALL KENNEDY, 2019 CANADA PERSPECTIVE | 3 02. GLOBAL ECONOMY Global economy Expansion continues, but growth has peaked GDP Growth: Y/Y % Change G7 2.0% (2019F) EMERGING 4.7% (2019F) There are undoubtedly signs of decelerating growth in the global 2.5 2019F 2018F economy. Faltering leading US 2.0 indicators from the Organization Canada for Economic Co-operation 2.0 and Development (OECD) and Germany 1.9 modest downward revisions to France global growth projections for 1.6 2018–19 by the International Italy 1.0 Monetary Fund (IMF) both signal UK a more challenging economic 1.5 environment ahead. Japan 0.9 Eurozone 6.2 Projected global China GDP growth India 7.4 1.8 3.7% 2019F Russia Brazil 2.4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Source: IMF, Deutsche Bank Research 4 | BENTALL KENNEDY, 2019 CANADA PERSPECTIVE Leading indicators signal softening outlook U.S. labour shortage accelerating OECD Confidence Indices Persons (Millions) LEADING CONSUMER BUSINESS JOB VACANCY UNEMPLOYED PERSONS 102.5 16 102.0 14 101.5 12 101.0 10 100.5 8 100.0 6 99.5 4 99.0 2 98.5 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Source: OECD Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Trade tension between U.S. and China could dampen growth The outlook for global growth is and China would undoubtedly far from dour. In its October, 2018, have spillover effects on the global forecast, the IMF projected average economy. But at the time of this annual global GDP growth to run near writing, the two sides agreed to a 3.7% through 2020. Growth over the temporary and partial truce in hopes preceding five years was 3.5%. In that a long-term deal can be reached. China, economic reports are mixed, but growth is projected to hold above In the U.S., household wealth has 6.0% annually. Meanwhile, in North been bolstered by the home price America, leading indicators of near- and stock market gains of the term growth
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