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Overcoming Barriers to Collective Action Through Transboundary Water Negotiation Along the Blue Nile River

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Overcoming Barriers to Collective Action Through Transboundary Water Negotiation Along the Blue Nile River Pursuing the Common Good: Overcoming Barriers to Collective Action through Transboundary Water Negotiation along the Blue Nile River By Yasmin Zaerpoor B.S., Animal Physiology and Neuroscience, University of California - San Diego, CA (2006) M.S., Urban Planning, Columbia University, New York, NY (2012) Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Policy and Planning at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2019 ã 2019 Yasmin Zaerpoor. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author _____________________________________________________________________ MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning August 12, 2019 Certified by ___________________________________________________________________________ Professor Lawrence Susskind Dissertation Supervisor, Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning Department of Urban Studies and Planning Accepted by __________________________________________________________________________ Professor Lawrence Vale Chair, PhD Committee Department of Urban Studies and Planning Pursuing the Common Good: Overcoming Barriers to Collective Action through Transboundary Water Negotiation along the Blue Nile River by Yasmin Zaerpoor Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in August 12, 2019 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Policy and Planning ABSTRACT We are headed towards a global water crisis. While technological advancements may help reduce this gap, achieving global water security will also require establishing self-enforcing agreements negotiated among countries that share transboundary rivers. At its core, transboundary water governance is a type of collective action problem (Olson 1965), in which sovereign actors must cooperate to achieve a collective interest. In this research, I attempt to delineate common procedural and context-specific barriers to collective action within transboundary water negotiations in the Nile River Basin. I compare efforts by three countries – Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan – to pursue collective action in two separate, but related, face-to-face negotiations related to water use: the basin-wide negotiations on the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (1997 – 2010) and the ongoing project-specific negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which started in 2011. Between 2015 and 2018, I interviewed over 50 Egyptian, Ethiopian, and Sudanese negotiators; transboundary water scholars and academics; and journalists and reviewed primary and secondary documents to identify the perceived barriers within these negotiation processes. The conventional approach to treaty-making is through negotiations among state actors. I argue that while many barriers related to the number of actors and degree of heterogeneity among them (as defined by differences in their capacity, access to information, preferences, beliefs, and identities) can be addressed through procedural interventions, non-procedural interventions by both state- and non-state actors are necessary to reduce these barriers at different scales (e.g., between negotiators or between negotiators and the public) in the short-, medium-, and long-term. Furthermore, I argue that multi-track water diplomacy is increasingly necessary in the Nile Basin due to several context-specific factors: the ‘securitization’ of water, frequent political transitions, and lack of public trust. Based on this research, I offer a list of procedural- and non-procedural interventions that can be employed by state- and non-state actors to reduce different types of barriers. Although reducing these barriers will not guarantee collective action, I argue that these interventions can create a more enabling environment in which collective action can occur. Thesis Supervisor: Lawrence E. Susskind Title: Ford Professor of Urban and Environmental Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2 Acknowledgements I have looked forward to writing these acknowledgements nearly as much as completing the PhD journey. I am forever indebted to my advisor – Lawrence Susskind. Larry, I am so thankful for your support over the past five years, the opportunity to work with you on so many exciting projects (Malaysia Sustainable Cities Program, Water Diplomacy Workshop, teaching Water Diplomacy), and for opening your home to us. You are so generous with your time and energy and have been a wonderful advisor and mentor. I hope to be as passionate a teacher, as engaged/influential a practitioner, and as helpful as you are to anyone that reaches out to you for advice. Thank you for all of your support. And thank you for introducing me to Leslie. Leslie, you are one of my heroes. Our IPA tastings, walks, lunches by the pond, and hearing about your adventures are among my favorite moments over the past five years. With immense gratitude to the rest of my committee – James Wescoat and Dale Whittington – for guiding me and providing constructive feedback this past year. Jim, my gratitude to you starts before I even began the PhD, when you spent an hour on the phone with me describing DUSP and resources I should consider if I planned to study water governance. You were generous with your time, encouraging, and supportive throughout the process, even kindly responding to my first full draft of the dissertation with ‘I look forward to reading this!’. Any early scholar will recognize what a relief these words are to see, especially from a respected mentor. Dale, as someone that has worked on the Nile for a very long time, I have really appreciated your feedback and suggestions on additional sources and perspectives to inform my work. … Among my favorite aspects of my research have been the people I have met along the way. To my mentors and friends whose work on the Nile has helped inform my own: Ana Cascão and Alan Nicol – thank you both for mentoring me, opening so many doors, introducing me to the magic that is Ethiopian ginger/honey tea, informally advising me throughout, and for your friendship. Kevin Wheeler – I’m so glad our paths intertwined as often as they did during our research (from Cambridge to Cancun to Cornwall to Kigali) and that it has cemented into deep friendship. David (and Jane) Grey – thank you for opening your home to me and Kevin, the walks along the coast, that ‘interesting’ rendition of Midsummer Night’s Dream at the beautiful Minack Theater, and our long discussions about the Nile. John Waterbury – your framing of the Nile as a collective action problem heavily influenced my framing of the Nile, and I am grateful for your generous responses to my emails. I recognize the inherent problems with writing about a place (or process) that is not your own. I do not consider myself a Nile ‘expert’, but very much a scholar in the process of trying to make sense of a complex situation. My deepest gratitude to the actual experts who gave me their time for interviews. Rarely do you get the opportunity in life to travel to places with such rich history and culture and gain access to experts of the thing that you are excited to learn about. There are too many people to list, but an extra ‘thank you!’ to Professor Seif (and Ammar Abbker) and Fekahmed Negash for helping me arrange my interviews in Sudan and Ethiopia and for their support throughout. To my friends from Egypt – Lama, Abeer, ‘YasMina cubed’ (Mina S. and Mina G.), Ramy and Tina, Jasmine, Ayah, Rawia, Mirette, Rasha, and Tarek – thank you for making Cairo feel like (a) home. To the Sudanese family that invited me to their home and showed me their city after meeting me on a 2.5 hour flight from Cairo – Samia, Marwa, Shima, Fatih, Ahmed, Baian, Rouka, Ameera, Zienab – I will cherish your kindness and generosity forever. I was lucky to see Khartoum through the eyes of those who love it and hope that the peaceful demonstrations lead to real, and positive, change. … 3 To my friends from the Malaysia Sustainable Cities Program (Jessica Gordon, Takeo Kuwabara, Selmah Goldberg, Kelly Heber, and Bettina Urcuioli), the incredible MIT graduate students that we took with us to Malaysia, the wonderful people we worked with in Malaysia (hello Prof. Hamdan!), the generous people that gave us their time to learn about sustainable urban development in Malaysian cities, and the extremely hard- working MSCP scholars – thank you, thank you! It is rare to work on a project with so many good people. Takeo, our friendship was the first that made me feel like Cambridge was (a) home. Thank you for your infinite patience and kindness, and for always advocating so passionately for the people around you. Selmah, thank you for always being so supportive, handling the MSCP program like a boss, and for your friendship along the way. You will forever be my bucket-list making friend. Kelly and Bettina – thank you both for being so welcoming in those early days of the program (and beyond)! … To my PhD cohort (the ‘Supremes’) – Jessica Gordon, Prassanna Raman, Daniel Gallagher, Aria Finkelstein, Laura Delgado, Hannah Teicher, Jason Spicer, and Jeff Rosenblum – thank you! Jess – I could not have asked for a more wonderful person to share the PhD experience with since day 0 (starting with the blustery weekend during Open House and
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