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Dr. Khaled Okasha General Manager Dr. Abdel-Moneim Said Academic advisor Editing By Dr. Ahmad Amal Contributors Ezzat Ibrahim Khaled Baramawy Salah Khalil Art Direction By Eslam Ali Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse on GERD Contents 4 Multiple media and faulty content 10 Technical fallacies 14 Picking a fight 20 The “national project” delusion 24 History and the victim mentality Multiple media and faulty content Dr. Ahmad Amal Chief of African Studies Unit at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies he Ethiopian position over the Grand than his predecessors Hailemariam De- Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is weak from multiple aspects, rang- salegn and Meles Zenawi, who was regarded T by many as the “spiritual father” of the pro- ing from insufficient technical studies, to the absence of successful political manage- ject. Ahmed spoke about the dam during his ment of the file, and the explicit violation of inauguration speech at the parliament, and the principles of international law to which on many other occasions. He sought to em- Ethiopia had previously committed itself in ploy the GERD project to restore his image international agreements. as a national leader after doubts hovered over him due to his discriminatory policies, However, Ethiopia has managed through- which primarily aimed at consolidating his out the past decade to appear stronger and power, even without referring back to the more stable than it really is. It wouldn’t have people in general elections. been able to build and market this image of itself, domestically and internationally, In addition to Ahmed, there is Foreign Min- without the support of a media discourse to ister Gedu Andargachew, who had never oc- achieve this fundamental goal. It is this dis- cupied a diplomatic post prior to rising to course that in many critical instances was the helm of the Foreign Ministry in 2019. the sole source of support for the Ethiopian Andargachew assumed his position within negotiator. the framework of the delicate ethnic balanc- es Ahmed uses to consolidate his authori- As such, there is an urgent need to decon- struct the Ethiopian media discourse on the GERD, be it in terms of its structure related to those responsible for its production and launch, or in terms of its content and the multiple manifestations of contradiction to the reality on the ground. Multiple media Ethiopia utilized multiple media to spread its discourse on the GERD. Several officials appeared associated with the issue, starting with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has been keen to employ the file politically more 4 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD ty. The prime minister was in favor sisted Bekele remain in his position of empowering the Amhara group despite his frequent cabinet reshuf- through positioning its members in fles. Although Bekele has an aca- several sovereign posts, such as the demic background, his statements army chief of staff for the first time carried the largest share of fallacies Bekele’s in decades, and the foreign minis- since they were connected to sever- statements try that Andargachew has headed al technical issues that constitute provided after his resignation as president of the key weak points of the Ethiopi- solid proof the Amhara region. an negotiator. Bekele’s statements provided solid proof Ethiopia en- Ethiopia Andargachew is an exemplary em- gaged in negotiations in bad faith engaged bodiment of extremist Amharic and without any real desire to settle in negotia- nationalistic trends, whose strict differences with Egypt and Sudan. tions in bad statements on the GERD can only be faith and read in light of his narrow national- without ist biases, which are manifested at times by the desire to monopolize any real de- the management of the water of the sire to settle Blue Nile, and at other times in the differences expansion in the Sudanese territo- with Egypt ries. These clear expansionist as- and Sudan pirations are meant, in the view of their supporters, to revive the Am- haric “empire” once more at the expense of other Ethiopian ethnicities and neighboring countries. It is not possible to let the state- In addition to the official Ethiopian ments of Seleshi Bekele, the expert statements, several Ethiopian press on water resources engineering, platforms launched hostile media pass by unnoticed. Bekele became campaigns against Egypt, and then Ethiopia’s minister of water, irriga- Sudan. They deliberately promoted tion and energy in 2019, during the racist “hate speech”, which came reign of Desalegn. Abiy Ahmed in- mostly in the form of reports that The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 5 lacked depth and solidness and were full of phen Mnuchin, and a campaign to depict unjustified hostility toward the Egyptians. the dam as an issue of a symbolic signifi- The campaigns target driving the Ethiopian cance for the various Ethiopian ethnicities, and foreign audience to the alleged convic- claiming their hopes are pinned on this tion that the development Egypt achieved project alone to achieve the prosperity they throughout its history came at the expense have awaited for decades. of the deteriorating economic and living conditions in Ethiopia. Faulty content The Ethiopian rhetoric sought to build a minimalist narrative to justify and pro- mote the Renaissance Dam project. The narrative has spread due to its dependence on addressing the emotional, not logical, aspects of its recipients. Ethiopia adopted the rhetoric of “injustice” in addressing the Ethiopian interior, so that the ruling elites of the Ethiopian nationalities, in conflict The Ethiopian hate speech was not limited for decades, would be exempt from any re- to press campaigns, after Ethiopia and its sponsibility for faltering development in supporters from the Middle Eastern used the country and hindering its returns to the social media platforms to launch a coordi- public. nated attack carefully prepared against the Egyptian position through a number of ac- The Ethiopian narrative also addressed counts directed to Arab audience. The at- the “guilty conscience” of the world, hold- tacks aimed at employing the GERD issue ing foreign countries responsible for the to pressure the Egyptian decision-making miserable conditions in which millions of on other regional fronts that have been wit- Ethiopians live and which could allegedly nessing accelerating shifts in recent years. witness a qualitative change if the international community accepts what the Ethio- pian government proposes to grant it full control over all the international rivers that it shares with its immediate and indirect neighbors. To spread the Ethiopian narrative on the largest scale, Ethiopia armed its rhetoric with a very hostile character toward Egypt by dropping on Egypt’s shoulders a huge amount of fallacies that contradict the facts of the contemporary history of interactions between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, whether in the final stages of colonialism or during the era of independence. This comes in addition to the extensive use of social media platforms directed at Eng- That Ethiopia depends extensively on fal- lish-language audiences the world over. lacies makes its discourse contradictory. Ethiopia employed social media outlets to Its excuses to assert its right to monopolize exert great pressure toward supporting its the water of the Blue Nile blows in its face position to withdraw from the Washington its claim that the GERD is a development negotiations. Ethiopia launched a coordi- project that will not result in any “serious nated attack on the US administration, par- harm” to Egypt or Sudan. ticularly against the Treasury Secretary Ste- 6 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD As far as procedures are concerned, miserably failed following the posi- Until pres- the Ethiopian discourse on the Re- tions of many upstream countries, ent, the naissance Dam is based on shame- such as South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopian less, blaring lies, whether when it Kenya. These countries have close rhetoric is comes to the size of the project, its relations with Egypt, which were returns, necessities or sources of boosted in recent years, leading to still keen funding. The lies extend to Ethio- the failure of repeated Ethiopian to tamper pia’s announcements regarding the attempts to drive a wedge between with the development of its position on ne- Egypt and Nile Basin countries. content of gotiations in their various tracks. Fundamental determi- the GERD This logic was most evident in the issue by Ethiopian prime minister’s pledge nants in Arabic not to harm Egypt’s water Regardless of the way Egyptian trying to interests during his visit to Cairo in media treat the GERD issue and turn it into June 2018. Ahmed relieved himself its effectiveness in conveying its a con- soon after of his vow. multiple messages to its audienc- frontation es at home and abroad, the reality between Ethiopia’s discourse was not void of at present imposes the need to de- “Arab” its extensive efforts to shuffle the construct the Ethiopian media dis- Egypt and cards and distort the track of negoti- course, being a key tool for Ethiopia ations either to stall the talks to gain to consolidate its policies. This is a “African” time and impose a fait accompli, or mission that should be carried out upstream to achieve future political goals that according to clear determinants. countries. help the Ethiopian regime partially treat the extremely disturbed politi- The most important of these de- cal and security conditions. terminants is to suffice by present- ing the Ethiopian discourse as is, Until present, the Ethiopian rheto- which brings out its contradiction ric is still keen to tamper with the and falsehood, throughout the past content of the GERD issue by trying 10 years in general, and in the last to turn it into a confrontation be- two years in particular, without dis- tween “Arab” Egypt and “African” turbing the recipient by trying to re- upstream countries.

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