Dr. Khaled Okasha General Manager

Dr. Abdel-Moneim Said Academic advisor

Editing By Dr. Ahmad Amal

Contributors Ezzat Ibrahim Khaled Baramawy Salah Khalil

Art Direction By Eslam Ali Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse on GERD

Contents

4 Multiple media and faulty content

10 Technical fallacies

14 Picking a fight

20 The “national project” delusion

24 History and the victim mentality Multiple media and faulty content

Dr. Ahmad Amal Chief of African Studies Unit at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

he Ethiopian position over the Grand than his predecessors Hailemariam De- Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is weak from multiple aspects, rang- salegn and Meles Zenawi, who was regarded T by many as the “spiritual father” of the pro- ing from insufficient technical studies, to the absence of successful political manage- ject. Ahmed spoke about the dam during his ment of the file, and the explicit violation of inauguration speech at the parliament, and the principles of international law to which on many other occasions. He sought to em- Ethiopia had previously committed itself in ploy the GERD project to restore his image international agreements. as a national leader after doubts hovered over him due to his discriminatory policies, However, Ethiopia has managed through- which primarily aimed at consolidating his out the past decade to appear stronger and power, even without referring back to the more stable than it really is. It wouldn’t have people in general elections. been able to build and market this image of itself, domestically and internationally, In addition to Ahmed, there is Foreign Min- without the support of a media discourse to ister Gedu Andargachew, who had never oc- achieve this fundamental goal. It is this dis- cupied a diplomatic post prior to rising to course that in many critical instances was the helm of the Foreign Ministry in 2019. the sole source of support for the Ethiopian Andargachew assumed his position within negotiator. the framework of the delicate ethnic balanc- es Ahmed uses to consolidate his authori- As such, there is an urgent need to decon- struct the Ethiopian media discourse on the GERD, be it in terms of its structure related to those responsible for its production and launch, or in terms of its content and the multiple manifestations of contradiction to the reality on the ground. Multiple media Ethiopia utilized multiple media to spread its discourse on the GERD. Several officials appeared associated with the issue, starting with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has been keen to employ the file politically more

4 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD ty. The prime minister was in favor sisted Bekele remain in his position of empowering the Amhara group despite his frequent cabinet reshuf- through positioning its members in fles. Although Bekele has an- aca several sovereign posts, such as the demic background, his statements army chief of staff for the first time carried the largest share of fallacies Bekele’s in decades, and the foreign minis- since they were connected to sever- statements try that Andargachew has headed al technical issues that constitute provided after his resignation as president of the key weak points of the Ethiopi- solid proof the Amhara region. an negotiator. Bekele’s statements provided solid proof Ethiopia en- Ethiopia Andargachew is an exemplary em- gaged in negotiations in bad faith engaged bodiment of extremist Amharic and without any real desire to settle in negotia- nationalistic trends, whose strict differences with Egypt and Sudan. tions in bad statements on the GERD can only be faith and read in light of his narrow national- without ist biases, which are manifested at times by the desire to monopolize any real de- the management of the water of the sire to settle Blue Nile, and at other times in the differences expansion in the Sudanese territo- with Egypt ries. These clear expansionist as- and Sudan pirations are meant, in the view of their supporters, to revive the Am- haric “empire” once more at the ex- pense of other Ethiopian ethnicities and neighboring countries.

It is not possible to let the state- In addition to the official Ethiopian ments of Seleshi Bekele, the expert statements, several Ethiopian press on water resources engineering, platforms launched hostile media pass by unnoticed. Bekele became campaigns against Egypt, and then Ethiopia’s minister of water, irriga- Sudan. They deliberately promoted tion and energy in 2019, during the racist “hate speech”, which came reign of Desalegn. Abiy Ahmed in- mostly in the form of reports that

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 5 lacked depth and solidness and were full of phen Mnuchin, and a campaign to depict unjustified hostility toward the Egyptians. the dam as an issue of a symbolic signifi- The campaigns target driving the Ethiopian cance for the various Ethiopian ethnicities, and foreign audience to the alleged convic- claiming their hopes are pinned on this tion that the development Egypt achieved project alone to achieve the prosperity they throughout its history came at the expense have awaited for decades. of the deteriorating economic and living conditions in Ethiopia. Faulty content The Ethiopian rhetoric sought to build a minimalist narrative to justify and pro- mote the Renaissance Dam project. The narrative has spread due to its dependence on addressing the emotional, not logical, aspects of its recipients. Ethiopia adopted the rhetoric of “injustice” in addressing the Ethiopian interior, so that the ruling elites of the Ethiopian nationalities, in conflict The Ethiopian hate speech was not limited for decades, would be exempt from any re- to press campaigns, after Ethiopia and its sponsibility for faltering development in supporters from the Middle Eastern used the country and hindering its returns to the social media platforms to launch a coordi- public. nated attack carefully prepared against the Egyptian position through a number of ac- The Ethiopian narrative also addressed counts directed to Arab audience. The at- the “guilty conscience” of the world, hold- tacks aimed at employing the GERD issue ing foreign countries responsible for the to pressure the Egyptian decision-making miserable conditions in which millions of on other regional fronts that have been wit- Ethiopians live and which could allegedly nessing accelerating shifts in recent years. witness a qualitative change if the interna- tional community accepts what the Ethio- pian government proposes to grant it full control over all the international rivers that it shares with its immediate and indirect neighbors.

To spread the Ethiopian narrative on the largest scale, Ethiopia armed its rhetoric with a very hostile character toward Egypt by dropping on Egypt’s shoulders a huge amount of fallacies that contradict the facts of the contemporary history of interactions between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, wheth- er in the final stages of colonialism or dur- ing the era of independence. This comes in addition to the extensive use of social media platforms directed at Eng- That Ethiopia depends extensively on fal- lish-language audiences the world over. lacies makes its discourse contradictory. Ethiopia employed social media outlets to Its excuses to assert its right to monopolize exert great pressure toward supporting its the water of the Blue Nile blows in its face position to withdraw from the Washington its claim that the GERD is a development negotiations. Ethiopia launched a coordi- project that will not result in any “serious nated attack on the US administration, par- harm” to Egypt or Sudan. ticularly against the Treasury Secretary Ste-

6 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD As far as procedures are concerned, miserably failed following the posi- Until pres- the Ethiopian discourse on the Re- tions of many upstream countries, ent, the naissance Dam is based on shame- such as South Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopian less, blaring lies, whether when it Kenya. These countries have close rhetoric is comes to the size of the project, its relations with Egypt, which were returns, necessities or sources of boosted in recent years, leading to still keen funding. The lies extend to Ethio- the failure of repeated Ethiopian to tamper pia’s announcements regarding the attempts to drive a wedge between with the development of its position on ne- Egypt and Nile Basin countries. content of gotiations in their various tracks. Fundamental determi- the GERD This logic was most evident in the issue by Ethiopian prime minister’s pledge nants in Arabic not to harm Egypt’s water Regardless of the way Egyptian trying to interests during his visit to Cairo in media treat the GERD issue and turn it into June 2018. Ahmed relieved himself its effectiveness in conveying its a con- soon after of his vow. multiple messages to its audienc- frontation es at home and abroad, the reality between Ethiopia’s discourse was not void of at present imposes the need to de- “Arab” its extensive efforts to shuffle the construct the Ethiopian media dis- Egypt and cards and distort the track of negoti- course, being a key tool for Ethiopia ations either to stall the talks to gain to consolidate its policies. This is a “African” time and impose a fait accompli, or mission that should be carried out upstream to achieve future political goals that according to clear determinants. countries. help the Ethiopian regime partially treat the extremely disturbed politi- The most important of these de- cal and security conditions. terminants is to suffice by present- ing the Ethiopian discourse as is, Until present, the Ethiopian rheto- which brings out its contradiction ric is still keen to tamper with the and falsehood, throughout the past content of the GERD issue by trying 10 years in general, and in the last to turn it into a confrontation be- two years in particular, without dis- tween “Arab” Egypt and “African” turbing the recipient by trying to re- upstream countries. This attempt spond to the fallacies and multiple

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 7 manifestations of inconsistency. Several of the Ethiopian discourse on the GERD and Egyptian experts exerted enormous efforts the context of these tones within Ethiopia’s to refute Ethiopia’s allegations, believing domestic policies. Based on facts on the that tracking the Ethiopian discourse on the ground, all of Ethiopia’s intense statements Renaissance Dam is sufficient to reveal its regarding the Renaissance Dam, including fallacy. those that referred to military alternatives, came against the background of severe do- It is also vital to adopt a comprehensive mestic disturbances, which prompted the approach in monitoring the Ethiopian dis- Ethiopian government to adopt an “escape course on the Renaissance Dam, which forward” approach to distract local public takes into account the emergence of a pat- opinion with the GERD and to provide “na- tern for the distribution of roles among tional” justification to exert more pressure Ethiopian officials, one of which adopts -ex on the opposition, using the pretext the op- tremism to address internal public opinion, position is weakening the government dur- while the other adopts moderation to avoid ing its “heated” confrontation with Egypt. provoking intense Egyptian reactions. In both cases, the crux of the official Ethiopian Therefore, the Egyptian Center for Strate- rhetoric is filled with the same fallacies. It is gic Studies published a series of studies thus important to monitor and analyze the that deconstruct the Ethiopian media’s dis- Ethiopian discourse. Many Ethiopian me- course on the GERD and bring to the fore its dia and social media accounts are merely fallacy and contradictions. It has become “an echo” of their government’s position on necessary to do so amid the continuous the issue of the Renaissance Dam, and they stumbling of negotiations despite the in- carry the same messages of the official dis- creasing international interference in the course but to a different audience, which is issue and especially with the unprecedent- something that must also be covered care- ed escalation and hostility seen in the Ethi- fully and analytically as an important part opian discourse. of the Ethiopian discourse.

The third and final determinant relates to the necessity of taking into account the close link between the calm and escalating tones

8 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 9 Technical

fallacies

Khaled Baramawy Journalist and expert on digital media

hroughout the history of bilateral with enough technical studies for such gigantic relations between Egypt and Ethiopia, projects; and whether it is ready to negotiate TEgypt has never denied Ethiopia’s right with flexibility and in good faith to resolve to use the natural resources on its land or those the fundamental technical disagreements that that pass through it for development purposes. concern downstream countries, particularly However, when Ethiopia’s projects involve the those related to holding off the Nile waters and River Nile, which it shares with other countries the collapse of the dam. and on which other peoples’ existence depends, all the parties involved have to negotiate and This paper presents the suspicious and cooperate in good faith to minimize the chances contradictory Ethiopian position regarding the of potential losses and maximize mutual technical dimensions of the Renaissance Dam, benefits. by relying on two main sources: the statements of Ethiopian officials, and the reports of the These facts seem, simply, logical. Nonetheless, impartial international parties involved in or the reality of the decade-long painstaking concerned with the negotiation process. negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) between The size and capacity of GERD downstream Egypt and Sudan and upstream reservoir Ethiopia, reveal Ethiopia’s stringency in all Of the most controversial technical issues the technical points up for negotiations. This about the GERD is the capacity of its reservoir, was clearly demonstrated when Ethiopia which is many times the actual need to generate ignored the reports of the International Panel electricity, especially with the continuous of Experts (IPoE) in which Ethiopian experts Ethiopian insistence that the Egyptian and were members. Ethiopia categorically rejected Sudanese sides bear all the expected negative the reports. The same thing happened with the impacts due to the first filling of the dam and reports of the consultancy offices, and again during the years of drought and prolonged with any serious attempt to accurately and drought. objectively assess the dam and its effects. One of the evidences of this is the statement Ethiopia’s positions raise countless doubts of Zerihoun Abe, a member of the Ethiopian about two things: whether Ethiopia is armed GERD negotiating team, who said: “Egypt and

10 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD Sudan will have to deal with droughts Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) in as a natural phenomenon.” He didn’t favor of Ethiopia in 1964, in which it say, for example, that the three was proposed at that time to build four countries should cooperate to alleviate small and medium-sized dams. It was the possible damages resulting from stated in that report that the capacity Ethiopia re- the dam! of the proposed dam reservoir near lied, with- the Sudanese border (the site of the out any Instead of providing facilities and Renaissance Dam) does not exceed updates, on showing flexibility during negotiations, 11.1 billion cubic meters. Throughout the techni- the Ethiopian side began to increase the negotiations, Ethiopia has not cal report the targeted technical specifications submitted any more recent independent conducted during the course of negotiations, studies on the dam. by the Unit- such as increasing the targeted energy ed States generated from the dam, increasing Bureau of the size of the reservoir, raising the Reclama- height of the dam, and complicating tion (USBR) the process of filling and operation. in favor of By going back to the initial studies Ethiopia in on which the dam was based (using On 13 March 2011, Reuters published 1964 its various names that have changed an official statement by Ethiopian over the years from the Project X, Electric Power Corporation’s said that to the Border Dam, the Millennium the GERD will produce 5,000 MW of Dam, and finally the Grand Ethiopian electricity in five to 10 years. During Renaissance Dam), it has been found the same month, when the construction these studies have been described by of the GERD was announced officially, experts, including members of the without notifying downstream IPoE, as very old, dating back more countries as stated in international than half a century. Ethiopia relied, agreements on transboundary without any updates, on the technical rivers, even the Ethiopian technical report conducted by the United States committees were surprised to find

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 11 the size of the reservoir had increased to the the cracking or total collapse of the dam. The capacity of 63 billion cubic meters, which current site, moreover, gives Ethiopia the is approximately five times the capacity ability to control the course of the Blue Nile mentioned in the US studies on the dam. from its nearest flow points toward Sudan and Egypt.

As is always the case, the Ethiopian fallacies started at an early stage, since the first announcement of the construction of the dam in 2011 when official Ethiopian media announced that the GERD was located 40 km from the border with Sudan. It was later proven the statement was part of the official policy of misinformation. The real distance between the GERD and the Sudanese border is about a third of the declared distance. Meanwhile, the dam is located 750 km from As negotiations went on, the capacity of the the capital, Addis Ababa, and hundreds of GERD reservoir was increased many times km away from the main population centers in to reach 74 billion cubic meters! And so did Ethiopia, and in the absence of an integrated the targeted energy which rose from 6,000 network to transfer electricity generated from MW to 6,450 MW, and finally to 7,000 MW. The same thing happened when Ethiopia announced the number and specifications of electricity-generating turbines of the GERD, and when the height was announced to increase from 145 meters to 155 meters. Changing the location of GERD The geographical location of the GERD remains an enigma. If the project was meant only to generate electricity, there were many geographical alternatives with better technical specifications to constrict a the dam to the areas of expected consumption. new dam in Ethiopia, as was the case with other dams Ethiopia built. These dams’ The real purpose of building production is exported and is not meant to GERD cover the enormous shortage of electricity The location of the GERD is not the only on the domestic front – which is the line lie. The 2013 IPoE report, in which experts Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed alleges to the from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan as well as international community is the reason behind independent experts participated, pointed building the GERD. out that the GERD is built on an unstable rocky terrain and is subject to the dangers The site of the dam was deliberately chosen of earthquakes and slides, which is a hazard to be literally adjacent to the Sudanese to the structure of the dam. Moreover, the border. It is located less than 15 km from the GERD is built between two high hills, the Sudanese border, for Ethiopia to avoid being height of each is 600 meters. affected by any expected repercussions from

12 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD Despite the fact that scientific evidence supports the choice of the dam’s location for irrigation and agriculture purposes, not to generate electricity, the statements of former Ethiopian foreign minister Berhane Gebre-Christos in 2013 came to deny this fact. He declared that “the Renaissance Dam will only be used to generate electricity, not for irrigation. It is technically impossible to use the dam for any agricultural purposes.” The same statement was repeated later in the New York Times’ coverage of the dam issue during a field visit by former CEO of the project, Simegnew Bekele, whose murder in 2018 was shrouded in mystery.

This official Ethiopian narrative was used to neutralize Egyptian fears. Ethiopia claimed the dam is being constructed to generate energy, which would require passing as much water through its passages to go into the electricity- generating turbines, and therefore it would not It must be taken into consideration that the be in Ethiopia’s interest to hold large quantities average slope of the Blue Nile stream in the of water in the dam’s reservoir for a long time, Ethiopian lands is very steep, reaching 1,786 whereas the announcement of successive meters from the origin of the Blue Nile at Lake reductions in the number of turbines and the Tana to the site of the dam. This would put great volume of energy generated from the dam came pressure on the body of the dam, according to to confirm that the Ethiopian purpose is to hold studies by Asfaw Beyene, Ethiopian professor off water to use it for purposes other than to of mechanical engineering at San Diego State generate electricity. University, who believes that the choice of the site of the Renaissance Dam should be based As such, the Ethiopian discourse on the on the ability to irrigate from the reservoir, due Renaissance Dam reveals a great deal of to the relatively easy access to flat land and the confusion and bad faith that were both clearly lowered soil leveling process from the origin. embodied in changing Ethiopia’s technical information about the size, location, and purpose of the dam, as well as the great contradiction in the statements of Ethiopian officials about the dam from one stage to the other.

There are many contradictions and fallacies regarding the technical aspects of the GERD, while such aspects are supposed to count solely on facts. However, Ethiopia’s political discourse in commenting on the negotiation process and the political objectives of the dam is loaded with double the fallacies, lies and contradictions, which is the subject of the following paper.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 13 Picking a fight

Dr. Ahmad Amal Chief of African Studies Unit at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

ne of the distinguishing traits of the onizing all of Eritrea’s lands. The emperor, Ethiopian discourse on the Grand furthermore, had discriminated against the OEthiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopians – save for the Amhara – on the particularly during the latest stage that began basis of descent and race. in 2019, is the irrational pursuit of a confron- tation with Egypt, to the extent of pushing the military tool into the Ethiopian official dis- course without justification. Such behavior doesn’t help reaching an agreement between the two countries that have been engaged in continuous negotiations for years.

This distinctive feature gives rise to multi- ple questions about the real purpose of this approach, especially with the possibility of distinguishing between two separate “fake” battles that Ethiopia seeks to promote in its media discourse. The first is a large-scale bat- tle between Egypt, that is backed by inter- This happened at a time Egypt was hosting national colonial powers, and Ethiopia, that African liberation movements, providing leads the African liberation struggle. The oth- them with all means of support. Against these er is narrower in scope, taking the shape of historical facts, the Ethiopian government is direct military confrontation between Egypt seeking to market the GERD, on the domestic and Ethiopia. and African fronts, as one form of “battling against the colonialism” that gave Egypt utter The fake battle against “colonial- control over the Nile and deprived Ethiopia ism” and other upstream countries of its water. Throughout the era of African national liber- ation since the end of World War II until the One of the focal points Ethiopian statements early 1960s, Ethiopia had a little role on the repeatedly insist on is the fake allegation that ground in supporting the battle of African Egypt bases its right to Blue Nile water on liberation against colonialism, with the ex- agreements international powers imposed ception of speeches made by Emperor Haile during the colonial era and that should end Selassie. During his reign, Ethiopia was col- with the termination of colonization.

14 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD On 1 October 2019, an Ethiopian For- These Ethiopian allegations con- eign Ministry press release that was tradict established historical facts. published by international media Egypt has never asked Ethiopia to pointed out that Egypt’s proposals to abide by the provisions of the 1929 solve the GERD crisis seek to preserve agreement on the White Nile, nor its water shares based on colonial-era the 1959 agreement signed between accords that give Egypt the right to the governments of Egypt and Su- oppose constructing any projects on dan after the end of colonialism in the River Nile. the two countries. However, Ethiopia Another remains bound before international Ethiopian The same message was repeated in law by the 1902 agreement its inde- fallacy has the letter of the Office of the Speaker pendent government, that was not to do with of the House of Peoples’ Representa- subject to any form of colonialism, tive (the lower chamber of the Ethi- signed. According to Article III of this denying in- opian Federal Parliamentary Assem- accord, emperor Menelik II commit- ternational bly). The letter directed to the Arab ted not to build and not to authorize agree- Parliament a formal protestation the building of any construction on ments that against its decision issued on 31 Oc- the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, and the So- guarantee tober 2019 in solidarity with Egypt bat River that would block the water Egypt’s in protecting its historical rights in from flowing into Sudan and Egypt. Nile water. The letter repeated the right to Ethiopian allegations that Egypt’s Nile water water rights are based on colonial agreements, to which independent African states were not signatory.

Another Ethiopian fallacy has to do with denying international agreements that guarantee Egypt’s right to Nile wa- ter. Ethiopia repeatedly announced its rejection of the principle of historical rights, and its media reiterated that the principle allows Egypt to monopolize the Blue Nile’s annual share.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 15 These principles were stressed 90 years later the time of signing the accords. Nonetheless, in the 1993 agreement signed to lay out a gen- as is the case every time, Ethiopia shirks its eral cooperation framework between Egypt obligations after it yields the returns from and Ethiopia. Article V of the 1993 agreement signing international agreements. states that the two parties are prohibited from practicing any activities related to Nile water Article I of the 1902 agreement gave Ethio- that may harm the interests of the other party. pia additional lands at the expense of Sudan. However, in violation of the provisions of the Ethiopia relies on this agreement to define its agreement, which was signed by Ethiopia, borders with its western neighbor. In dealing the Ethiopian official position, reinforced by with the text of the international agreement, countless media articles, still denies there Ethiopia shows a contradictory behavior, as is a legal obligation for Ethiopia to protect it picks some articles to accept and others Egypt’s water rights. to reject. Surprisingly, it is the Amhara, who are recently in control of the Ethiopian di- Ethiopia’s insistence to deny its previous plomacy, that are leading the attempts to legal obligations, that limit its freedom to renounce the internationally binding agree- deal with Blue Nile water as an internation- ment signed by emperor Menelik II, one of al waterway shared by three states and that the group’s historical symbols. may preserve the minimum of Egypt’s rights to Nile water, is built on the allegation that Likewise, the Ethiopian People’s Revolution- Egypt refers to “colonial” agreements to se- ary Democratic Front that rose to the helm cure its water rights. These allegations are was in dire need to open up to all sources simply unfounded. When Ethiopia signed the of regional and international support after 1902 agreement, during the reign of Menelik, it came to power in 1991. The front needed to it was not colonized, and it willingly signed present itself as a system that seeks to break the accord. Moreover, Ethiopia was not under with the policies of Mengistu Haile Mariam, occupation when its former prime minister who was merely a tool for the implementation Meles Zenawi signed the cooperation proto- of the Soviet project in Africa. It is against this col in Cairo in 1993. background that Zenawi visited Egypt – the regional and international star of which was rising following its successful intervention in the Kuwait Liberation War – to avoid the entrance of his emerging, unstable regime into an uncalculated rivalry with Egypt.

Indeed, Zenawi achieved his main aim of the visit. Cairo maintained balanced relations with Addis Ababa, even following the failed assassination attempt on the life of former Egyptian president Mohamed Hosni Mubarak in the Ethiopian capital in 1995.

Zenawi enjoyed a good relationship with Truth be told, all of Ethiopia’s desperate at- Egypt to avoid any form of confrontation or tempts to renounce its previous international rivalry for the 20 years he spent in power. agreements reflect the troubled vision of the During his rule, Zenawi strengthened the pil- current Ethiopian ruler regarding his coun- lars of his political project, before he seized try’s history. If Ethiopia’s signing of the 1902 the opportunity of the exceptional conditions and 1993 agreements came to represent a Egypt endured in 2011 to initiate animosity, “concession”, it in turn enabled Ethiopia to pose a fait accompli regarding Nile water, and obtain important gains that were necessary announce the beginning of GERD’s construc- for the survival and prosperity of the state at tion without prior consultation or notice.

16 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD The rhetoric of military Despite the fact Ethiopia quickly confrontation with Egypt backtracked on this position, there There is no logical comparison be- were other similar instances that tween the damages Egypt will have saw the Ethiopian government de- to endure upon the completion of liberately walking the same path that the GERD without agreement, and threatens regional stability. the damages Ethiopia will face if the dam’s construction is brought to a After Ethiopia withdrew unan- halt. Egypt will lose its only source nounced from the Washington talks of water, while Ethiopia will lose the at the end of February 2020, a delega- amount one branch generates of lim- tion comprising Ethiopian security ited electricity the majority of which and military leaders visited the GERD is exported. site on 12 March. The delegation was There is headed by Chief of Staff of the Ethi- no logical Despite this blatant contradiction in opian Armed Forces General Adem comparison the two countries’ political stance to- Mohammed, who stated that the between the wards the crisis, in addition to the Ethiopian forces are ready to fend off huge difference in military capabil- any attack on the dam and that they damages ities between them, Egypt has never are working to defend the Ethiopian Egypt will explicitly or implicitly threatened people’s gains, rights, and properties. have to en- the use of the military tool, commit- dure upon ting itself to the negotiating track as a the comple- first choice besides the political and tion of the legal alternatives offered by interna- tional law, which it began to activate GERD with- since it addressed the international out agree- community in September 2019 and ment, and the United Nations Security Council the damag- in May 2020. es Ethiopia will face if In return, the past few months wit- the dam’s nessed Ethiopia’s intention to re- call the military option into the cri- construc- sis. This began on 22 October 2019, tion is when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy brought to Ahmed “warned” during his speech a halt before the Ethiopian parliament that his country may mobilize millions of Ethiopians in case there is a need to With Ethiopia’s continued intransi- go to war over the GERD. It is won- gence during the negotiations and drous these unjustified statements its attempts to delude its domestic were released hours before Ahmed public opinion that there is a foreign went to Sochi to participate in the military threat, the Deputy Chief of first Russian-African summit, which Staff of Ethiopian Armed Forces, Gen- saw a bilateral meeting between eral Birhanu Jula, announced on 12 Ahmed and Egyptian President Ab- June his country will defend itself del-Fattah Al-Sisi. It was then that with all its might and will not negoti- Ahmed backtracked, saying during ate its sovereignty over the GERD. He the meeting that his statements re- claimed Egypt and the world know garding the military option were tak- too well “how [Ethiopians] go to war en out of context by the media. when the time comes.”

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 17 owed to purely political domestic reasons that have nothing to do with Egypt or its position concerning the GERD. The Ethi- opian government’s adoption of a hostile approach can be interpreted as the result of two reasons. The first has to do with Abiy Ahmed’s relationship with the Ethi- opian people, and the second is related to the military establishment.

Concerning the first reason, Abiy Ahmed attempted to spread public panic about the existence of a foreign military threat to In continuation of Ethiopia’s attempts to mobilize public opinion to support him. “militarize” the GERD crisis, Prime Minister This happened at a time Ahmed’s popular- Abiy Ahmed held a surprise meeting on 21 ity was quickly eroding. It was no coinci- June to discuss “the new defense strategy” dence he started talking about an Egyp- with leaders of the Ethiopian Armed Forces. tian military threat to the GERD at a time The meeting was held one day after the Egyp- sweeping protests erupted in the Oromia tian president inspected the combat units in region in October 2019 that rendered tens the western military zone. of Ethiopians dead.

Ethiopia’s escalating speech about a military alternative in spring 2020 came against the background of Ahmed’s attempt to prolong his rule without holding elections by creating unreal justifications that unfitting security conditions allowed him to postpone the gen- eral elections from May to August. That was before he used the coronavirus crisis to delay indefinitely the elections until the pandemic crisis was over, according to the decision of the House of Federation.

The latest military meeting was held in June following the refusal of several opponents, prime among whom are the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Front, of the announcement of extending the President El-Sisi’s inspection tour was the rule of Abiy Ahmed. The opposition said they result of field developments in Libya’s battle will consider the government illegitimate arena. But Abiy Ahmed seized the opportuni- once its tenure ends in October. ty to fake to his people that Egypt’s military preparations were basically directed against The second reason that explains why Abiy Ethiopia. Ahmed adopted a hostile approach is his at- tempt to fix the turmoil within the Ethiopian Ethiopia’s recall of the rhetoric of mil- military institution, and which negatively itary confrontation with Egypt over the affected his relationship with it in the two GERD doesn’t find any justification in years he has spent at the helm. By speaking the Egyptian discourse or approach for about an imminent Egyptian military threat, an entire decade. This consolidates the the prime minister is giving his armed forces reality that Ethiopia’s hostile attitude is a foreign target that may help the military

18 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD institution restore cohesion amid gypt’s position remains com- the repetitive rebellious incidents mitted to reaching a peaceful within the Ethiopian Armed Forces. Esettlement to the GERD crisis through the legal and political means In October 2018, a number of special provided by international law. Egypt units surrounded the headquarters still refuses any Ethiopian attempt to of the prime minister armed with push the crisis towards “militariza- their private weapons. The events of tion”. This comes at a time the irre- June 2019 led to the assassination of sponsible Ethiopian media discourse the chief of staff of the Armed Forc- pushes towards framing the current es in an event that is still shrouded dispute as an ongoing war. in mystery. This escalating tension within the military institutions Ethiopia’s adoption of this nega- Ethiopia’s comes following a process of refor- tive and false media discourse shall escalat- mulating relationships between eth- minimize the chances of reaching a ing speech nic groups which Abiy Ahmed began peaceful settlement for the crisis and about a by excluding the Tigray that held the may allow more room for other effec- largest representation in leading mil- tive alternatives in a fertile environ- military itary posts. Against the background ment and among several supporters alternative of these internal tensions in the in light of the extremely turbulent in spring military institution, Ahmed hopes conditions that Ethiopia suffers on 2020 came the repeated talk about a possible the domestic and regional fronts. against Egyptian threat will contribute to the back- containing the internal problems in the institution and the adjustment ground of of his relationship with it. Ahmed’s attempt to prolong his rule with- out holding elections by creating unreal jus- tifications

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 19 The “national project” delusion

Salah Khalil Researcher at Al-Ahram Center for Social and Historical Studies

hen presenting the Grand Ethiopi- These critical Ethiopian criticisms, regardless an Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis of their popularity, are proof enough of the fal- Wwith Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopi- lacious arguments included in the Ethiopian an media highlights the unity of all ethnic media discourse over GERD which claim that groups and their support for the construction the dam is a “national project” that all Ethio- of the dam. This is a fallacy. Many groups in pians approved its usefulness, its method of Ethiopia oppose the project. execution, and its direct and indirect financial cost, and that may cause animosity with Egypt It is difficult to trace methodically the voices and Sudan. that have been expressing their opposition Denunciation of local communi- since 2011 for three reasons. The first is that many of these voices that live in Ethiopia, not ties in the GERD region abroad, express their opposition in the Amhar- The GERD is located in Benishangul, an Ethi- ic or other Ethiopian languages. The second opian regional state, with Assosa as its capi- is that consecutive Ethiopian governments tal, that was created following the adoption have been keen to exercise utter control over of the 1995 constitution. Formerly known the media through their different tools. The as Region 6, the area faces major challenges third is that only 18 per cent of Ethiopians are to economic development. connected to the Internet, according to World Bank data. Furthermore, the governments of The ethnic groups in Benishangul include Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his prede- the Berta (25.9 per cent), the Gumuz (21.11 per cessor Hailemariam Desalegn have repeatedly cent), the Amhara (21.25 per cent), the Oromo cut off the Internet in the country whenever (13.32 per cent), the Shinasha (7.59 per cent), political tensions arose. and the Maw (1.9 per cent).

It is worth noting this paper primarily traces Muslims and Orthodox Christians comprise the content of the Ethiopian criticism of the 45.4 per cent and 33 per cent, respectively, of GERD, and not the percentage of its support- the region’s population. Some 13.5 per cent ers or opponents. The latter is an impossible are Protestants, and 7.1 per cent believe in mission for a country that couldn’t conduct local African religions. These groups reject a national census for more than 13 years, nor the construction of the GERD in their region credible polls, in light of the deep cultural and because the building process led to the con- linguistic divisions that further reinforce the fiscation of their agricultural lands and their existing sharp political divisions. forced displacement without compensation.

20 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD Their migration resulted in them los- soldiers. The Benishangul People’s ing their only source for livelihood, Liberation Movement announced its which came from agriculture. responsibility for the attack, saying it was resisting what it described as In November 2012, the Benishangul the Ethiopian occupation of the re- People’s Liberation Movement an- gion. The movement, moreover, de- In Novem- nounced its rejection of the Ethiopi- clared its rejection of the building of ber 2012, an government’s efforts to build the the GERD, stating that it will destroy the Ben- Renaissance Dam in its region, saying the region. ishangul the project is draining the region’s var- ious resources from which the locals There is evidence of this mounting People’s don’t benefit. The movement point- criticism in many sources. For exam- Liberation ed out the project will lead to the dis- ple, the Free Benishangul account on Movement placement of nearly 50,000 people Twitter published a number of tweets announced from the communities living around attacking the dam, among which are: its rejection the construction site. of the Ethi- • Contradicting basic logic is how On 9 May 2014 the movement the dam is being built on occupied opian gov- launched an armed attack that re- land. ernment’s sulted in the death of nine Ethiopian efforts to • Let us ask the people of Benis- build the hangul to decide whether they are Renais- Ethiopians or Sudanese, and we sance Dam will see after that. in its region • The Benishangul group demands halting constructing structures built on land that you do not own. Stop the ethnic cleansing of Ben- ishangul.

• The Benishangul People’s Liber- ation Movement denounces the Ethiopian government’s targeting

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 21 of its citizens in Benishangul. In the past negotiation levels as well as the massive cor- century Ethiopia enslaved the people of ruption that overshadows the GERD manage- Benishangul, now it is killing, displacing ment since 2011. and torturing them to build the Renais- sance Dam on their bones, and we demand The English-language account of Ethiopia2day the right to self-determination. published a document accusing Prime Min- ister Abiy Ahmed of appointing his brother- • Criticizing the dam led to the arrest of in-law Alemayehu G. Mariam as head of the Abdul-Salam Chinglna, head of the Benis- Ethiopian Diaspora Trust Fund to support the hangul People’s Liberation Movement, and construction of the GERD. The account men- the head of the Gumuz People’s Democratic tioned that the decision held a discrepancy Movement, Grang Godita, from their homes in that Mariam was a staunch proponent of in Assosa, the capital. the GERD from the very beginning and then he turned to support the building of the dam Following the filling of the dam on 22 June before Abiy Ahmed gave him the task of pro- 2020, as tripartite negotiations between viding financial support for it. Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia were ongoing, a tweet on the same account said “Ethiopia doesn’t have the right to do anything on the occupied lands of Benishangul, and Abiy Ahmed doesn’t have the right to build any- thing until the people of Benishangul have the right to self-determination. Stop ethnic cleansing in the name of your dam.”

Another account, by the name of al khanagy, who supports Benishangul’s right to inde- pendence, tweeted “if Ethiopia rejects the colonial boundaries agreement and those of colonial waters, agreed upon in 1902, it is time [for Ethiopia] to leave the lands of Countless Ethiopian voices oppose the meth- Benishangul.” On the same account was od Ethiopia adopts in its negotiations with also tweeted “we are being kicked out of our Egypt and Sudan, with some of them saying land without compensation. The head of the “resolving the conflict over the Blue Nile wa- movement was arrested and 80 people were ter between Egypt and Ethiopia will not take killed during protests against land confisca- place without encouraging and facilitating in- tion in Benishangul.” vestments between the two countries and the contribution in energy generation in Ethiopia On the account of a female Benishangul activ- to end the current shortage, which will allow ist was written “apologies for not celebrating the filling of the dam very slowly.” the dam, because we are not privileged to live in urban area. We are busy worrying about the Political activist Gebrehiwot Belay explained obliteration of our identities, beliefs, and our that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is using the entire existence during the mass killing exer- “It’s My Dam” campaign to cover up his fail- cised by your government.” ure and achieve his aspirations of becoming Criticizing corruption and the the seventh king of Ethiopia. Belay wondered whether Ahmed’s priority should be the River mismanagement of the GERD file Nile or saving his country from disintegration. Generally, Ethiopians criticized their succes- sive governments, particularly that of Abiy Abraham Asefa wrote that “the main prob- Ahmed, for the mismanagement of the Re- lem is that the prime minister is a child and naissance Dam file at the construction and a prophet at the same time. After 27 dark years

22 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD of looting and corruption during the the present time by the Amhara group GERD construction comes the mess- to regain control of the wealth and ing with the dam file and engaging in power in the country at the expense negotiations sponsored by the US and of other groups, on top of which is the World Bank to create a brouhaha the Oromo. to cover up for the ensuing chaos that would allow putting off elections in- definitely, and to end up in chaos and power-grabbing.”

Political activist Zega Ras-Work point- ed out that “the poorly built dam could bear catastrophic economic, Professor Muse Tegegne tweeted environmental and humanitarian the GERD is that “the GERD project is marred by repercussions. I believe if Egypt and a national corruption and incompetence in the Ethiopia agreed to work together on project that overall disaster,” while Ztseat Save the building of the dam, with the help has won Adna, MD wrote that the majority of of the international community, the the Ethiopians participating with the project will bear positive returns.” the sup- hashtags FillTheDam and It’sMyDam port of all had stood in opposition of the dam In the end, these Ethiopian viewpoints Ethiopians two years ago. Many of them said at assure two key facts that should be fo- is merely a the time the dam’s target is to harm cused upon in this complicated situ- part of the Egypt and bears no benefits for Ethi- ation. The first is that the Ethiopian mislead- opia in a sign of the excessive polit- government’s claim that the GERD is a icization of the GERD on the part of national project that has won the sup- ing media successive Ethiopian governments. port of all Ethiopians is merely a part discourse of the misleading media discourse adopted by Civil society activist Ephrem Made- adopted by the government of Abiy the gov- bo wrote on his account he believes Ahmed since his rise to the helm in ernment that not even 80 per cent of the project April 2018. The second is that there are of Abiy which was planned to be finished five many fair and wise Ethiopian voices Ahmed years ago was completed. The dam is with whom a constructive and sus- nothing because it was being used as a tainable agreement could be sealed on since his milking cow for the Tigray Liberation the joint management of the Blue Nile rise to the Front, he added. water to the benefit of Egypt, Sudan, helm in and Ethiopia and to save the three April 2018 Political researcher Rashid Abdi ex- countries, and the entire region, from plained that the meeting of African a possible conflict that may be trig- leaders on the Renaissance Dam did gered by the irresponsible approach not change anything, as the “pene- of the Ethiopian government. tration” was completely misleading, pointing to the use of the project at

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 23 History and the victim mentality

Ezzat Ibrahim Chief of Media Unit at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies

t is no coincidence the Ethiopian polit- ical and media discourse on the Grand IEthiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is summoning chapters from history, bringing to the fore what it describes as the depriva- tion of the Ethiopian people’s right to Nile water. The ruling political class employs Ethiopians’ history in search of commonal- ities to unify the people’s ranks and make the Renaissance Dam a grand milestone in their history. This gives the political class made up of allied ethnicities a breath of fresh air in a country suffering from polit- ical, economic and social woes, regardless of the rights of others, which the Ethiopians themselves advocate in their speech to the world as they propagate “the fair sharing of water resources” with Nile Basin countries.

In an Opinion article published by Addis Standard, Yeshiwas Degu Belay wrote “In one of the most popular and timeless Ethi- opian songs, ‘Adwa’, Artist Ejigayehu Sheba- baw (Gigi) resonates the 19th Century heroic citizenship and the symbolic, cultural and Historical approaches in Ethio- political importance, not only to Ethiopians pia’s media discourse but also to the black people as a whole, of Africa’s great victory, Adwa. “The victory safeguarded the independence of the state in the midst of European ‘scram- “On 2nd March 1896, Ethiopians had collec- ble for Africa’ and constituted ideologically tively defeated the heavily mechanized Ital- important force for the successive Pan-Afri- ian colonial army at the battle of Adwa, in can struggles in the continent and abroad,” northern Ethiopia.” continued Belay.

24 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD In Ethiopia, it is being said that the village alism remains in the minds of today’s de- of Adwa is a historical landmark that em- cision-makers, the national media, and the bodies popular culture and identity despite general public. Such historical conscious- divisions and historical interpretations. ness is not only to reflect on the current af- When Ethiopia celebrated the 124th an- fairs retrospectively, but also to realize con- niversary of its victory over Italy, the local temporary development endeavors.” propaganda machine linked the histori- cal incident with the country’s ability to Ethiopia has launched campaigns at home complete the construction of the Renais- and abroad to promote the mega national sance Dam and the start of the first filling project since it started building the GERD in in a clear strategy to tie the historical vic- April 2011 on the Blue Nile to generate 6,500 tim mentality with the construction of the MW of electricity. The campaigns targeted dam. Ethiopia’s political elite is promoting stoking patriotism and exaggerating cultur- the GERD as the structure which will bring al and historical experiences that were mile- back Ethiopia’s historical rights after the stones for the advancement of the country. downstream country had “dominated” Nile waters for hundreds of years. “The victory of Adwa must be repeated in our struggle against poverty to create a This was evident in Belay’s article. “It is no prosperous Ethiopia,” said the country’s exaggeration to say that no other develop- president, Sahle-Work Zewde. In order to ment project has been incredibly linked to complete the project, Ethiopia mobilized Ethiopia’s past than the GERD, which is the the public at home and abroad to donate to centerpiece of Ethiopia’s development. The build the GERD and for 10 years it propagat- Adwa Victory is an exemplary event that ed the project and charged its people mor- could be conveyed by the public proverb ally on social media to create the image of [which means] collaboration of spider webs a nation that grabs its rights from the “state can tie the lion. Though divided along mul- dominating” Nile water. tiple political lines, Ethiopians were united, and are still united when it comes to the core Numerous writings indicate that the GERD of national interest, and battered the colos- presents the changing face of Ethiopia, in sal Italian mechanized army that aimed at contradiction to the stereotypes that have controlling the sovereign and its interests. been spread on global media in which Ethi- Culturally so powerful that after more than opia is a poor country that lacks the ability a century the unified stand against coloni- to implement mega projects.

The Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies | 25 Post-Washington shifts Ethiopia figures indicate a hike in GERD The mobilization of Ethiopian public bond sales as soon as the initial filling was opinion at home and abroad picked up announced. momentum following the February talks mediated by Washington. Ethiopia ab- The Ethiopian Diaspora Association en- stained from signing the agreement at the courages Ethiopian expats to participate in last minute, claiming Washington had sid- financing the dam and supporting it dip- ed with Egypt. Voices grew louder as they lomatically through making contacts with spoke of “national sovereignty” and not decision-makers in the countries where succumbing to any pressures, even if they they reside. The association’s Chief Exec- came from friendly major powers. In order utive Director Abraham Seyoum said “the to continue the financial and moral- mo River Nile should not be a political agenda. bilization among Ethiopians domestically It is about benefiting from water resources and abroad, the Ethiopian strategy was to in an equitable and reasonable way.” hold Egyptian and international media re- sponsible for presenting Ethiopia in a way The office of the National Council for the it deems to be different from the reality Coordination of Public Participation on on the ground with regard to the bases on the Construction of the GERD is coordi- which it built the Renaissance Dam. nating efforts with an NGO, Lift Ethiopia, to hold international events to support the The Ethiopian media claims the Egyptian Ethiopian position on the GERD and ad- media is a “propaganda machine for the dress the world. One such event, One Voice state” and the international media which for Our Dam, promoted “the fair use of wa- should be unbiased (such as Bloomberg, the New York Times, the Independent, the Washington Post, and Voice of America) is, according to Ethiopian writers, in one way or another, saying Ethiopia is acting unilaterally when it announced it filled the dam’s reservoir without agreement. According to Ethiopia’s media, the inter- national media is deliberately creating ter sources and fighting poverty.” new facts on the ground and says Ethiopia intentionally skipped the last meeting in Many countries, particularly the US, saw Washington and that it plans to dominate the emergence of associations and organ- River Nile resources. The Ethiopian media izations that promote the Ethiopian posi- claims this kind of journalism “distorts the tion. The presence of these groups, such as facts” and works in the interest of Egypt the Justice for Humanity, increased during and against Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia the first quarter of 2020. Justice -for Hu doesn’t pay attention to other views in this manity launched campaigns in the US and fateful issue for the downstream country. Canada to pressure the Trump adminis- tration to rectify the “US biased position”, Ethiopian diaspora condemn the unfair pressure exercised by In tandem with the media campaigns on the US administration on Ethiopia, pro- social media platforms in support of the mote fair use and mutual benefit, and clar- Ethiopian position, the Ethiopian govern- ify the Ethiopian position on the interna- ment is backing what can be called “part- tional stage. nership with the diaspora”. GERD promo- tional campaigns managed to collect $56 These new civil associations focus on the million, out of the total cost of construct- second generation of Ethiopian diaspora in ing the dam estimated at $4.7 billion, from the US, Canada, and Europe to deliver mes- Ethiopian expats. Development Bank of sages to decision-makers, particularly at

26 | Deconstruction Ethiopia’s media discourse over GERD The Ethio- pian groups employ expatriate youth and direct them on social media plat- forms to address for- eign deci- sion-mak- ers and advocate their ver- sion of the the Congress, that big changes that Ethiopia’s focus on its media dis- story are taking place in Ethiopia and the course serves a number of purpos- Horn of Africa are worthy of sup- es, regardless how correct its ap- port, especially in development proach is and no matter whether it and fighting poverty. The Ethiopi- sticks to the truth or not. Ethiopia’s an groups employ expatriate youth media discourse secures financial and direct them on social media support for the construction of platforms to address foreign de- the GERD through selling bonds to cision-makers and advocate their Ethiopian expats whose econom- version of the story. These associa- ic conditions are better than their tions also focus on countering the peers at home. “fallacies” spread about Ethiopia and its GERD. Hewan Solomon, the This discourse also provides the Justice for Humanity coordinator, moral support for the project ad- said “If they know the real story, vocated as a national cause that friends, allies and citizen of other all the Ethiopians, at home and countries would fight along with abroad, support. Moreover, it al- us for this cause.” lows Ethiopia to apply increasing pressure on foreign policymakers Fifteen Ethiopian diaspora associ- in the US and Europe who are now ations signed a declaration for civ- playing key roles in negotiations. il organizations abroad on 27 June 2020. These organizations have branches in a number of US states, including Chicago, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Arizona, Oregon, south- west Washington, and Los Angeles.

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