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“#Itsmydam”: an Analysis of Ethiopian and Egyptian Discourses Surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

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“#Itsmydam”: an Analysis of Ethiopian and Egyptian Discourses Surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam “#Itsmydam”: An analysis of Ethiopian and Egyptian discourses surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam ELOISE FREIIN VON GIENANTH Image source: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20190803-egypt-hands-ethiopia-its-vision-of-renaissance-dam/ Eloise von Gienanth August 2020 MSc International Development Studies Student number: 12768766 University of Amsterdam Supervisor: Dr. Tefera Negash Gebregziabher Second reader: Dr. Yves van Leynseele TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 8 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................ 8 1.2 RELEVANCE AND OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................ 9 1.3 MAIN RESEARCH QUESTION AND SUB-QUESTIONS....................................................................... 11 1.4 THESIS STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................... 12 2.1 HEGEMONY AND COUNTER-HEGEMONY ...................................................................................... 13 2.2 HYDRO-POLITICS .......................................................................................................................... 14 2.3 HYDRO-HEGEMONY ..................................................................................................................... 16 2.4 A DAM AT THE EPICENTER OF COUNTER-(HYDRO-)HEGEMONY? ................................................ 20 2.5 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF COUNTER-HYDRO-HEGEMONY ................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 23 3.1 UNITS OF ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 23 3.2 RESEARCH LOCATION................................................................................................................... 24 3.3 DATA COLLECTION METHODS ...................................................................................................... 25 3.3.1 Semi-structured in-depth interviews ..................................................................................... 25 3.3.2 Focus group .......................................................................................................................... 26 3.4 SAMPLING..................................................................................................................................... 26 3.5 DATA ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 27 3.6 RESEARCH ETHICS AND POSITIONALITY ...................................................................................... 28 3.7 QUALITY OF THE RESEARCH ........................................................................................................ 28 Trustworthiness ............................................................................................................................. 29 Authenticity .................................................................................................................................... 30 3.8 OTHER LIMITATIONS TO THE RESEARCH ...................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 4: CONTEXTUALIZING THE NILE DISPUTE ................................................... 32 4.1 A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE NILE ..................................................................................................... 32 2 4.2 LEGAL FRAMEWORKS................................................................................................................... 34 4.3 THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM .............................................................................. 36 CHAPTER 5: THE GERD IN EGYPT ..................................................................................... 38 5.1 COERCIVE COMPLIANCE-PRODUCING MECHANISMS .................................................................... 40 5.2 NORMATIVE COMPLIANCE-PRODUCING MECHANISMS ................................................................ 40 5.3 HEGEMONIC COMPLIANCE-PRODUCING MECHANISMS ................................................................ 41 a) Securitization ........................................................................................................................ 41 b) Knowledge construction ....................................................................................................... 43 c) Sanctioned discourse ............................................................................................................ 43 CHAPTER 6: THE GERD IN ETHIOPIA ................................................................................ 45 6. 1 DECONSTRUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 45 6.2 CONSTRUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 47 6.2.1 Socio-economic development ............................................................................................... 48 6.2.3 International support ............................................................................................................ 51 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................ 52 7.1 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................... 52 7.2 THEORETICAL REFLECTION .......................................................................................................... 55 7.3 SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH ........................................................................................ 56 7.4 RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................... 56 3 Abstract Despite the popularity of the hydro-hegemony framework in transboundary water-conflict analysis, counter-hegemonic strategies in river basin contexts have not yet been sufficiently explored. This study aims to address these gaps by exploring the counter-hegemonic discourses that Ethiopia has employed against Egypt alongside its construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The study thereby makes use of a critical hydro-politics lens under consideration of Gramsci’s work on counter-hegemony. Using content analysis of Ethiopian, Egyptian and international media items and semi-structured interviews with governmental actors and citizens, this study examines how these discourses impact Ethio-Egyptian relations. Results show which narratives Egypt has circulated to maintain its presumed hegemony over the Nile, namely securitization, referring to its ‘historical’ legal rights, and framing Ethiopia as deliberately taking unilateral measures to threaten its water supply. Ethiopia contests these claims and constructs own narratives to gather support for the GERD by framing it as central to the country’s socio-economic development, linking national pride to the Dam and creating positive sum-outcomes for other riparians. Results moreover show that these discourses are informed by each respective countries’ geopolitical interests, such as creating national unity amidst domestic struggles. Both countries further use notions of ‘cooperation’ to pursue their goal of maintaining or gaining power over the waters of the Nile. Lastly, some of the weaknesses of the hydro-hegemony framework are shown. Keywords: Ethiopia, Egypt, hydro-politics, hydro-hegemony, water governance, transboundary water conflict 4 Acknowledgements This year certainly presented challenges to us that went far beyond of what we had anticipated. Fortunately, I have been able to count on numerous people that supported me during this time. First, I want to thank Dr. Tefera Negash Gebregziabher for his continued guidance, understanding and valuable feedback throughout the process of writing this thesis. I can sincerely say that I have learnt a lot from these insights. I would like to thank Dr. Yves van Leynseele for acting as my second reader. Furthermore, I want to sincerely thank all the kind people in Addis Ababa, and especially at Addis Ababa University, without whom this thesis would not have been possible. Both those who directly participated in this study and those who brought me in touch with relevant individuals were of tremendous help during my stay in Addis. I would like to thank my parents, to whom I owe my deepest gratitude for their support during my studies. To Carlo and his family, as well as to Sofia and Chiara: Thank you all, not only for providing me with space during the writing process, but for making me feel at home (and for all the fun self-isolation nights!). 5 List of abbreviations DoP – Declaration of Principles GDP – Gross Domestic Product GERD – Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam HAD – High Aswan Dam IPoE – International Panel of Experts METEC – Metals & Engineering Cooperation of Ethiopia NBI – Nile Basin Initiative SGCC – State Grid of China Electric Power Equipment and Technology
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