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Futuribles Futuribles L’Anticipation Au Service De L’Action futuribles futuribles L’anticipation au service de l’action Eau, alimentation et climat Le droit d’asile en Europe Science-fiction et prospective PANORAMA DES ŒUVRES D’ANTICIPATION EXPLORATION DE RUPTURES SOCIALES ET EXTENSION DU CHAMP DES POSSIBLES LE RAPPORT HOMME-NATURE AU PRISME DE LA SCIENCE-FICTION JUILLET-AOÛT 2016 - NUMÉRO 413 Principale revue de prospective en langue futuribles française à caractère réellement L’anticipation au service de l’action interdisciplinaire, Futuribles analyse ce qui peut advenir (les futurs possibles) et ce qui peut être fait (les politiques et les REVUE BIMESTRIELLE stratégies) vis-à-vis des grands défis du futur 47, rue de Babylone - 75007 Paris - France . Tél. + 33 (0)1 53 63 37 70 - Fax + 33 (0)1 42 22 65 54 E-mail [email protected] - Site Internet www.futuribles.com Au sommaire des derniers numéros COMITÉ D’ORIENTATION nº 410 Pierre Bonnaure, Dominique Bourg, • Éducation et formation Jean-François Drevet, Jean-Pierre Dupuy, La reproduction des inégalités Hubert Landier, Corinne Lepage, Jacques Lesourne, • L’influence des standards internationaux Harold A. Linstone, Pierre-Jean Lorens, Eleonora Masini, • Robert Rochefort, Joël de Rosnay, Alioune Sall, • Pour une réforme de la formation continue Hedva Sarfati, Jacques Testart, Alvin Toffler • L’éthique « hacker » La bioéconomie COMITÉ DE RÉDACTION • Daech : un scénario du pire Sébastien Abis, Julie Bouchard, Jean-Yves Boulin, • Gilbert Cette, Pierre-Yves Cusset, Julien Damon, Elvire Fabry, Charles du Granrut, Bruno Hérault, nº 411 Marthe de La Taille-Rivero, Céline Laisney, • Éléments pour une prospective géopolitique Alain Michel, Pierre Papon, Alain Parant, La scène internationale dans la tourmente André-Yves Portnoff, Jacques Theys • • États-Unis : quelle politique étrangère demain ? DIRECTEUR DE LA PUBLICATION : François de Jouvenel • Pour une géopolitique de l’éducation • La démocratie contre l’anarchie mondiale RÉDACTEUR EN CHEF : Hugues de Jouvenel • L’Europe et l’Alliance atlantique • Le secteur français de la défense RÉDACTRICE EN CHEF ADJOINTE - SECRÉTAIRE DE RÉDACTION Vers de nouveaux indicateurs Stéphanie Debruyne • de développement RÉDACTION : Cécile Désaunay, Laurie Grzesiak nº 412 ASSISTANTE : Aude Houguenague • Le bien-être selon l’OCDE SECRÉTAIRE GÉNÉRALE : Corinne Roëls • La santé à l’ère du big data Éducation, formation, emploi ABONNEMENTS - DIFFUSION : Hélène Vioujard • • Les atouts de la formation professionnelle CORRECTRICE : Anne De Beer et de l’apprentissage • Les écoles de la deuxième chance ENSEIGNANTS ABONNEMENT PAPIER 1 AN 2 ANS ÉTUDIANTS • Vers l’entreprise polycellulaire ? s s (TVA 2,1 % incluse) (6 n° ) (12 n° ) 1 AN • Le travail dans 20 ans (1995) France et autres pays 115 € 199 € 58 € Les articles de la revue Futuribles sont indexés dans Public Affairs ABONNEMENT WEB (TVA 2,1 % incluse) 1 AN (6 numéros par an + archives depuis 1975, texte intégral) Information Service (PAIS) Bulletin, CAB Abstracts, CSA Political Science and Government: A Guide to Periodical Literature, World 1 à 10 postes 225 € Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Abstracts, Références, Au-delà de 10 postes sur devis Généralis, Delphes, Sociological Abstracts, IBZ (Inter na tionale Bibliographie der Geistes- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Zeitschriften - PACK PAPIER + WEB 1 AN literatur), Scopus. 1 ABONNEMENT PAPIER + 1 ABONNEMENT WEB (TVA 2,1 % incluse, 1 à 10 postes, 6 numéros par an + archives depuis 1975, texte intégral) Toute reproduction ou représentation, intégrale ou partielle, par quel que procédé que ce soit, de la présente publication, faite sans l’autorisation France et autres pays 280 € de l’éditeur est illicite (article L. 122-4 du Code de la propriété intellec- tuelle - CPI) et constitue une contrefaçon. Seules sont auto risées, d’une € (tous pays, port inclus)* LE NUMÉRO : 22 part, les reproductions strictement réservées à l’usage privé du copiste *Les numéros antérieurs au 392 sont à 14 € et non destinées à une utilisation collective, et, d’autre part, les analyses sauf les 343, 354, 365, 376, 383 et 387 qui sont à 19 € et courtes citations justifiées par le caractère scientifique ou d’informa- tion de l’œuvre dans laquelle elles sont incorporées (Code de la propriété Les articles signés expriment l’opinion des auteurs et pas nécessairement intellectuelle, article L. 122-5). L’autorisation de reproduire, dans une autre celle de Futuribles. Tous droits de reproduction, même partielle, publication (livre ou périodique), un article paru dans la présente publi- par quelque procédé que ce soit, réservés pour tous pays. cation doit être obtenue auprès de l’éditeur : Hélène Vioujard, Futuri- bles, 47 rue de Babylone, F-75007 Paris, tél. : 33 (0)1 53 63 37 70, fax : 33 © futuribles Sarl 2016 (0)1 42 22 65 54, e-mail : [email protected]. L’auto ri sation d’ef- fectuer des reproductions par reprographie ou électroniques dans le Actionnaires principaux : Hugues de Jouvenel, Corinne Roëls cadre d’un panorama de presse diffusé sur Intranet doit être obtenue au- Commission paritaire n° 0521 D 80574 - ISSN 0337-307X près du Centre français d’exploi tation du droit de copie (CFC), 20 rue des Bialec S.A., 23 allée des Grands Paquis, CS 70094, 54183 Heillecourt Grands-Augustins, F-75006 Paris, tél. : 33 (0)1 44 07 47 70, fax : 33 (0)1 cedex, France - Dépôt légal n° 87475 - JUILLET 2016 46 34 67 19, e-mail : [email protected]. futuribles NUMÉRO 413 • JUILLET-AOÛT 2016 Science-fiction et prospective 3 Hugues de Jouvenel Sécurité alimentaire et climat au XXIe siècle 5 Eaux bleues, eaux vertes et sols Guillaume Benoit L’invention de l’avenir : prospective et science-fiction 29 Gérard Klein Tester le futur par la science-fiction 53 Extension du domaine des possibles, mondes préfabriqués et lignes de fuite Yannick Rumpala L’environnement au prisme de la science-fiction 73 De la dystopie à la reconstruction du rapport homme-nature dans les sociétés postécologiques Corinne Gendron et René Audet FUTURSD’ANTAN Aux origines du mot « transhumanisme » 85 Olivier Dard et Alexandre Moatti TRIBUNEEUROPÉENNE Désastre en vue pour le droit d’asile 95 Jean-François Drevet ACTUALITÉSPROSPECTIVES 105 Les modèles familiaux en Europe / Recruter des diplômés de doctorat pour innover / Protection sociale et nouvelles formes d’emploi / En l’attente de nouveaux types de biocarburants / Vers la fin de l’écriture manuscrite ? / Origine et avenir de la violence humaine. BIBLIOGRAPHIE 119 P. Rosanvallon, Le Bon Gouvernement / J.-H. Lorenzi et M. Berrebi, Un monde de violences. L’économie mondiale 2016-2030 / C. Le Mouël et alii, Le Système agri- cole et alimentaire de la région Afrique du Nord-Moyen-Orient à l’horizon 2050 / B. Stiegler, La Société automatique. 1. L’avenir du travail / G. Simon (sous la dir. de), Dictionnaire des migrations internationales. Approche géohistorique / J.-M. Daniel et F. Monlouis-Félicité (sous la dir. de), Sociétal 2016. # Numérique et emploi : lost in transition ? / R. Liogier, La Guerre des civilisations n’aura pas lieu. ABSTRACTS 134 Ce numéro comporte un encart d’abonnement jeté sous la couverture. ABONNEMENT - COMMANDE À photocopier et à retourner à Hélène Vioujard - Futuribles 47 rue de Babylone, F-75007 Paris - Tél. + 33 (0)1 53 63 37 70 - Fax + 33 (0)1 42 22 65 54 E-mail : [email protected] - www.futuribles.com Je m’abonne à la version papier de la revue Futuribles (TVA 2,1 % incluse) 1 an / 6 numéros o 115 € 2 ans / 12 numéros o 199 € Enseignants, étudiants, 1 an o 58 € Joindre la photocopie de votre carte d’enseignant ou d’étudiant Je m’abonne à la version Web de la revue Futuribles (6 numéros par an + accès aux archives depuis 1975, texte intégral, TVA 2,1 % incluse) 1 À 10 POSTES AU-DELÀ 1 an o 225 € o sur devis Je m’abonne au pack Papier + Web de la revue Futuribles (revue papier + revue en ligne avec 6 numéros par an et accès aux archives depuis 1975, texte intégral, 1 à 10 postes, TVA 2,1 % incluse) 1 an o 280 € Je commande les numéros suivants de Futuribles o n° 409 - 22 € o n° 410 - 22 € o n° 411 - 22 € o n° 412 - 22 € o autre(s) ....................................…. Tous pays, port inclus dans le prix Voici mes coordonnées Nom - Prénom Société N° de TVA Adresse Code Postal Ville Pays Tél. E-mail* *Indispensable pour l’édition électronique Je règle euros par o Chèque à l’ordre de Futuribles o Visa o Am. Express N° l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l Exp. fin l l l l l Merci de préciser le cryptogramme figurant sur votre carte o Virement CIC Paris Bac, 2 bd Raspail, F-75007 Paris IBAN : FR76-3006-6100-4100-0105-7380-116 • BIC : CMCIFRPP o Sur facture Date : Signature : Loi du 6/1/1978 : droit d’accès et de rectification à Futuribles Tarifs valables pour tous les pays 47 rue de Babylone, F-75007 Paris. Sauf refus de votre part, jusqu’au 31/12/2016 ces informations pourront être utilisées par des tiers. N° TVA : FR 55 340541762 ÉDITORIAL SCIENCE-FICTION ET PROSPECTIVE L’éditorial d’Hugues de Jouvenel La prospective, comme le savent acteurs, dont les pouvoirs sont iné - les lecteurs de Futuribles, entend être gaux et les représentations du sou- un instrument d’aide à la décision et haitable différentes, sinon parfois in - à l’action ; elle nous invite à consi - conciliables, mais tel n’est pas le dérer l’avenir comme territoire à ex - sujet de cet éditorial. plorer mais aussi comme territoire à La question qui en l’occurrence me construire. paraît essentielle est celle de la mé - Dans le premier cas, l’on parlera thode, du bon dosage entre la raison de prospective exploratoire, celle-ci et la fiction. Les « prospectivistes » se fondant sur la représentation que dont nous sommes, peut-être parce nous pouvons nous forger du pré- qu’ils estiment important d’être cré- sent et de ce qu’il recèle comme ten- dibles, s’efforcent de s’appuyer sur des dances lourdes et émergentes pour données, des expertises, des argu- aller explorer le spectre des futurs ments aussi rigoureux que possible.
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