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Malaysia Property Market Trend Analysis (Commercial)

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Malaysia Property Market Trend Analysis (Commercial) Property Market Trend Analysis Commercial Savills Malaysia May 2019 GREATER KL Retail Market Overview Retail Supply in Greater KL . Well-supplied market, Cumulative Retail Supply in Greater KL with 64 mil sq ft of KL City KL Suburbs Outer KL Greater KL shopping mall & Future Supply: hypermarket in the +21 mil sf region. 90.00 85 . Basically, both the office 84 78 and retail markets are 80.00 bracing for an additional 69 70.00 20 million sft of supply 64 62 by 2022 (each), but for 61 60.00 57 retail, the current supply 54 base is half that of office; 48 49 50.00 46 hence, the % growth will 42 be twice as high. 39 40 40.00 38 . Of the total retail supply in Greater KL: - Retail Sapce (mil sf) 30.00 Selangor: 57% 20.00 KL Suburb: 25% KL City: 18% 10.00 0.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e Source: Savills Research 3 Future Retail Supply in Greater KL Future Supply in the Greater KL . Strong competition in the coming years with at Selangor KL Suburbs KL City least 20 mil sq ft retail . Empire City Mall space in the pipeline. 10.00 . Pavilion Bukit Jalil . KSL City Mall 9.00 . The Exchange Mall 8.00 . Mitsui Shopping Park Lalaport . Pavilion Damansara Heights 7.00 . IOI City Mall 2 6.00 6.20 5.00 Tropicana Gardens Mall 1.10 4.00 . Mall @ 1.94 Redevelopment of Plaza Rakyat Retail Space(million ft) sq 3.00 3.08 2.00 1.80 2.63 1.00 0.32 1.02 1.25 0.50 0.00 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e Source: Savills Research 4 Average Retail Occupancy Rate Retail Occupancy Rate of Greater KL . Retail occupancy rate 5.0 100.0% remain healthy, recorded 87% as of 2018. 94.4% 4.5 92.5% 95.0% 92.1% 91.4% 92.1% . However, new malls 90.0% 90.7% 90.0% 89.5% 89.0% struggle to reach high 4.0 87.6% 87.8% 90.0% occupancy on opening. This is mainly due to the 3.5 85.0% availability of plenty Occupancy Rate (%) options for retailers to 3.0 80.0% choose, and they are taking this opportunity to 2.5 75.0% assess the suitability to open a new stores. 2.0 70.0% New New Completions (mil sf) 1.5 65.0% 1.0 60.0% 0.5 55.0% 4.0 1.7 0.8 1.8 4.0 2.3 0.8 4.6 2.1 3.6 2.2 2.1 0.0 50.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NewNew Supply completions OccupancyAOR rate Source: Savills Research 5 Prime Retail Rent Index Prime Rental Index (Q4/2005 = 100) . Stable rent level across all prime Prime Rental Index (Q4/2005 = 100) Y-o-Y Change retail segments is 240.0 16% anticipated amidst the challenging retail 227 227 14% environment. 220.0 . The top centres have 12% long enjoyed rental 200.0 growth that was the 10% envy of the rest of the 8% market, underpinned 180.0 by stable economic 6% growth and favorable 160.0 demographics. This is 4% no longer the case. The significant supply 140.0 2% growth over the past decade has led to 0% increasing competition, 120.0 causing malls to -2% compete for the same, limited catchments. 100.0 -4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Savills Research 6 Major mall transactions in Greater KL Year NLA Transaction Price Capital Value Yield Property Purchaser Transacted (sq ft) (RM mil) (RM psf) (%) 2008 Part of Sg Wang Plaza 510,418 595 1,166 CapitaLand Ltd - Citta Mall 424,000 280 670 SEB Asset Management - 2009 Starhill Centre 297,354 629 2,115 Starhill Global REIT - Lot 10 256,811 401 1,561 Starhill Global REIT - 1 Mont’Kiara 410,000 333.0 812 ARA Asia Dragon Limited - Sungei Wang Plaza 450,470 724.0 1,607 CapitaLand Malaysia Mall Trust (CMMT) 7.3% 2010 The Mines 719,563 530.0 737 CMMT 6.4% Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall 1,685,568 2,300.0 1,365 Sunway REIT 6.4% Pavilion KL Mall 1,335,119 3,190.3 2,390 Pavilion REIT 6.7% 2011 CITTA Mall 424,467 245.0 577 ARA Asia Dragon Limited - Mid Valley Megamall 1,718,951 3,440.0 2,001 IGB REIT 5.3% 2012 The Gardens Mall 817,053 1,160.0 1,420 IGB REIT 5.9% 2014 KL Festival City 450,000 349.0 776 Festival Mall Sdn Bhd & AsiaMalls Sdn Bhd - Tropicana City Mall and Office Tower 549,494 540.0 983 CMMT 4.0% 2015 Da Men Mall 420,290 488.0 1,161 Pavilion REIT 6.0% The Intermark Mall 225,014 160.0 711 Pavilion REIT 6.1% Empire Shopping Gallery 350,000 570.0 1,629 Pelaburan Hartanah Bhd (PHB) - 2017 AEON Mahkota Cheras 211,405 87.8 415 Foremost Wealth Management Sdn Bhd - Elite Pavilion Mall 229,609 580.0 2,397 Pavilion REIT - 2018 SS2 Mall 460,000 180.0 391 DK-MY Properties Sdn Bhd - Source: Bursa Malaysia & News Publications 7 Market Outlook for Retail Supply . Diluted market shares, with 20 mil sq ft of retail space scheduled for completion by 2022. Occupancy rate of major malls remains healthy. Having said that, new malls are struggling to reach high occupancy on opening. Retailers are consolidating and reviewing current stores’ performance and be more prudent in terms of store expansion. Anecdotal evidence shows that retailers are keen to expand and are looking out for other store format options. Demand . Retail supply growth far outpaced population growth. More international brands open stores in Malaysia especially F&B, fast fashion, athleisure and beauty segments. Investment . Prime retail rental index holding up, with Suria KLCC & Pavilion KL leading the market. The completion of TRX The Lifestyle Mall and Mitsui Shopping Park Lalaport @ BBCC in the end 2021 will have an impact to the retail market. Market sentiment remains soft and likely to prolong. 8 New Retail Entrants 9 Origins of New-to-market International Retailers in 2017/18 EMEA APAC Fashion Fashion AMERICA Fashion F&B Beauty & Personal Care F&B F&B F&B Beauty & Personal Care Others Source: Savills Research 10 GREATER KL Office Market Overview Total Office Stock in Greater KL is 125 mn sft, making it ASEAN’s largest . GKL is largest office 180.0 Cumulative supply of office space in Greater KL 15.0% market in ASEAN. Future Supply: 12.6% +18 mil sf 150.0 143 . 3.8 million sq. ft of new 139 134 12.0% office space (13 office 131 125 buildings) completed in 120 115 2018, of which 120.0 111 ) ft 105 102 9.0% . 48% in Selangor 98 92 . 38% in KL Suburb, and 87 90.0 82 6.9% . 14% in KL City 73 Y Change (%) 70 5.6% 5.8% - 67 5.6% o 65 6.0% - Y Supply (mil. Sq. 60.0 4.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 3.0% 30.0 FUN FACTS Singapore 80 million sq ft 0.0% Hong Kong 127 million sq ft 0.0 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f Bangkok 97 million sq ft Manila 73 million sq ft KL City KL suburban Outer KL Greater KL Supply Growth Rate Jakarta 67 million sq ft Note: Office space in Cyberjaya is included in Savills Basket since 3Q 2018. Recent Office Completions in Greater KL . Majority of the new offices are located in the suburbs, with only two office buildings in the KL City namely Equatorial Plaza (460k sq ft) and Menara Khuan Choo (85k sq ft). Selected New Grade A Offices Mutiara Petaling Jaya Putrajaya KL City KL Eco City Bangsar Damansara Mid Valley Menara Celcom Menara Perdana Equatorial Plaza Mercu 2 (CANCO) MRCB Nucleus Tower Menara Etiqa Southpoint NLA: 460k sq ft NLA: 540k sq ft NLA: 450k sq ft NLA: 270k sq ft NLA: 238k sq ft NLA: 380k sq ft NLA: 540k sq ft Source: Savills Research 17 Future Office Supply in Greater KL Total Office Expected Major Office Buildings Zone Space completion (>300k sq ft) 2019-2022 year The Exchange 106 @ TRX 2019 Menara Prudential @ TRX 2019 YTL HQ 2019 TCM Tower 2020 Lot 91 KLCC (Sapura) 2020 Merdeka PNB118 2021 KL City 11 mil sq ft Affin Bank HQ @ TRX 2021 HSBC HQ @ TRX 2021 UOB Tower 2 2021 Office @ Oxley Tower 2021 The Stride Strata Office @ BBCC 2021 Pavilion Embassy Corporate Suites 2022 Lot 185, 167, 176 KLCC 2022 Pavilion Damansara Heights 2021/22 KL Suburbs 3 mil sq ft Lot 61 Bangsar by PHB 2022 HCK Tower @ Empire City 2019 The rest of 3 mil sq ft Selangor 1 Powerhouse Bandar Utama 2020 Uptown 8 2020 Kenwingston Business Centre 2020 Cyberjaya 0.3 mil sq ft Glomac Cyberjaya 2 2021 Source: Savills Research 18 Greater KL Office Vacancy Rate . Greater KL office Office Vacancy Rate in Greater KL vacancy rate decreased 40.0% KL City KL suburban Greater KL Selangor by 0.8% Y-o-Y mainly 23% due to the lower average vacancy rate recorded in KL City KL suburban and Selangor (excluding 30.0% Cyberjaya).
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