Krakauer: 2016 Is the Year of Conversations, Experiments, And

March / April 2016 UPDATE

IN THIS ISSUE

INSIDE SFI > Food webs with humans 2 > Tomorrow’s power grid 3 > Modeling ancient peoples 3 Krakauer: 2016 is the year of conversations, > Social science weirdness 3 > A flaw in econ theory? 3 experiments, and partnerships at SFI > Introducing ACtioN 4 > Population regulation 4 > SFI President David Krakauer has launched Will Tracy new SFI VP 5 a number of initiatives intended to put > Disaster-resilient slums 6 the Institute’s intellectual thrusters into > Higher math for food webs 6 hyperdrive and amplify the impact of SFI’s > Farming insects 6 science. > Art & data dramatization 7 His vision comes in three parts: conversa- > New postdoc Kolchinsky 7 tions, experiments, and partnerships: “We’re > Perspectives on pertussis 8 going to have more, and more interesting, > Report to POTUS: Cities 8 conversations with a greater diversity of people. We’re going to try some exciting > Upcoming SFI events 8 new things that invite incredible opportunity…and skirt failure. And we’re going to partner. This is the year of partnerships at the Santa Fe Institute.” RESEARCH NEWS

The new Strategic Partnerships group at SFI, which combines the previous functions of Bluebird’s Advancement and the former Business Network, is responsible for developing and conundrum: Shack maintaining all of the Institute’s high level partnerships. On March 1, Krakauer an- up now or hang nounced the selection of Will Tracy to lead the new unit as VP for Strategic Partnerships. out on mom’s (See article on page 5.) Photo by Minesh Bacrania > more on page 4 couch for a while

For a young male western bluebird, it RESEARCH NEWS “Hard Modularity” by Joerael Elliott might be better to live with one’s parents as a helper for a year before starting a nest of one’s own, according to a recent The in!uence study in Behavioral Ecology. It’s a unique and somewhat counterintui- of modularity tive interplay of evolutionary tradeoffs that makes this kind of cooperative breeding on networks advantageous for species like bluebirds, says Caitlin Stern, an SFI Omidyar Fellow In large systems, from biology to politics, and lead author on the paper. like attracts like. Individuals in social systems connect and form factions based on Female western bluebirds show an age common interests or behaviors, such as a bias, preferring to mate with older males. voting populous that divides by candidate. And bluebirds have high rates of extra-pair A biological model of malarial transmission paternity, or EPP, where a female’s social may divide its constituents into parasites mate may not be the father of all her (mosquitoes) and hosts (humans), with each offspring. This means a young partnered group playing fundamentally different roles. male often shares more genetic material with the younger siblings in his parents’ Understanding groupings, or “modules,” is nest than the young of his own nest. a key problem in network theory. Traditional clustering models assume many modules In addition, behavioral ecologists know will pop up in a large population. But that that helping behavior often results in approach is limited, says Laurent Hébert- longevity. By sharing the workload, each Dufresne, an SFI postdoctoral fellow. Recent individual in a cooperative system has a findings suggest that a small, finite number survival advantage. of tightly knit modules – those whose Young birds who stay at home as helpers components play by the same rules as the Barcelona), Jean-Gabriel Young (Université Hébert-Dufresne. “Do you look for people may increase both their parents’ and their system evolves – emerge in many systems, Laval in Québec), and Pierre-André Noël (UC like you, or different from you?” and this “hard modularity” can influence own lifespans, on average. For long-lived Davis), as well as evolutionary biologist Eric network processes. species like bluebirds, which can survive Libby, an SFI Omidyar Fellow. Scrawling on a whiteboard and on paper, eight years, males may thus increase their To better explore the impact of hard the network theorists thought through a reproductive fitness – the representation modularity on networks, Hébert-Dufresne Modularity is typically regarded as a struc- number of simple strategy games to test the of their alleles in the next generation – organized a five-day working group at SFI tural property of a network, but this group influence of hard modularity: for example, over their lifetimes by delaying breeding in January. His collaborators included three took a different approach. “We studied to win an election, how much effort should and helping instead. physicists, Antoine Allard (University of modularity instead as a strategy,” says > more on page 8 > more on page 7 SFI IN THE NEWS Deploying ideas and tools from complex- Bhattacharya, Cris Moore, D. Eric Smith, New Scientist on February 10 reviewed SFI and that a firm’s mortality rate is indepen- ity science could help economists foresee and Jon Wilkins – in which the research- External Professor John Miller’s new book, dent of its age, how well established it is, market interdependencies that cause ers used a new methodology to reveal that A Crude Look at the Whole. Slate reviewed or what it does. global market instabilities, wrote a group of for many universal concepts, the world’s the book on January 19. Articles in the New York Times’ Stuff We researchers in Science on February 18, in- languages feature a common structure Forbes on February 10 covered a paper by Like column and The Atlantic’s CityLab on cluding SFI External Professor Doyne Farmer of semantic relatedness. The CS Monitor SFI’s Hyejin Youn, Luís Bettencourt, José January 29 featured a study co-authored by and Science Board member Robert May. covered the paper on February 3. Lobo, Deborah Strumsky, and Geoffrey SFI Professor Luís Bettencourt and former Bloomberg on February 11 featured SFI SFI’s essay series with the CS Monitor con- West that examined the diversity, distribu- postdoctoral fellow Marcus Schläpfer that Board of Trustees Chair Emeritus Bill Miller tion, and patterns in the types of compa- finds universal patterns, and limits, in the tinued with “Beehives and voting booths” and his new investing algorithm, influenced nies that arise in cities of different sizes. heights of buildings in major cities. by SFI External Professor John Miller on by complex systems science and a com- February 11; “Why people become ter- puter model developed with SFI External The Wall Street Journal on January 29 ex- PBS Nova on January 13 and Wired on rorists” by SFI Professor Mirta Galesic on Professor John Rundle designed to predict plored the implications of a 2015 paper by January 4 quoted SFI Professor Luís Bet- January 21; and “Engineered societies: Can earthquakes and other natural disasters. Madeleine Daepp, Marcus Hamilton, Geof- tencourt in an article on the range of pos- science help orchestrate social outcomes?” frey West, and Luís Bettencourt revealing sibilities – utopian to dystopian – the urban Nature on February 11 highlighted a recent by SFI Professor Jessica Flack and External that a typical firm lasts about 10 years be- transportation networks of the future study – co-athored by Hyejin Youn, Tanmoy Professor Manfred Laubichler on January 7. fore it gets merged, acquired or liquidated, might realize. Q

Nonlinearities From the editor RESEARCH NEWS Intellectual thrusters to hyperdrive! In March, nine science meetings take How hunter-gatherers preserved their food network place at SFI. The Applied Complexity Network (now known as ACtioN) is A new study of humans on Sanak Island, becomes scarce, its value goes up. In these those populations to extinction, you’re also announcing a host of new membership Alaska and their historical relationships with cases, such as with Bluefin tuna that are a introducing a destabilizing dynamic into the perks (see page 4) and holding a excit- local species suggests that despite being highly prized sushi fish, “increased rarity system.” ing meetings on topics like financial super-generalist predators, the food gather- increases economic value, leading to in- regulation and ecosystem dynamics ing behaviors of the local Aleut people were creased harvesting pressure at just the wrong The paper appeared February 17 in Nature (with a little population genetics for stabilizing for the ecosystem. time,” says Dunne. “You’re not only driving Scientific Reports. Q good measure). The Education office is gearing up for The findings provide insights into how hu- one crazy summer, with a global sus- man roles and behavior impact complex tainability summer school to augment ecological networks and offer new quantita- its already rich lineup of schools and tive tools for studying sustainability. residential programs, new online courses at ComplexityExplorer.org, and new With a team of ecologists and archeolo- short courses. Our community lecture gists, SFI’s Vice President for Science Jennifer series this year moved to The Lensic, an Dunne wanted to understand the niche auditorium of 800+ seats (twice the size humans filled in Sanak’s marine ecosystems of the previous venue) — and we’re still by compiling and analyzing local food web routinely near capacity. data.

The Broken Symmetry Society was “It’s the first highly detailed ecological net- inaugurated in February, with Cormac work data to include humans, which allows McCarthy, James Drake, Joerael Elliott, us to ask questions about how they com- and a half dozen other creative types pare in their roles to other predators,” says in the house; read more about it in the Dunne. “Unlike most ecological studies that article that starts on page 1. ignore humans or consider them as exter- A new art exhibition just went up in nal actors, our analysis includes them as an our main building. It features paintings, integral part of the ecosystem.” a photocopied map and pages from a couple of short stories, and several For roughly 7,000 years, the Sanak Aleuts office doors with stenciled titles like hunted marine mammals and fishes in the “Seldom Little-Seldom” (a real town nearby open water and gathered shellfish in Newfoundland), “Museum of Dark and algae closer to shore. Dunne and her Forces,” and “Library of Babel” — the colleagues put together a precise picture latter a reference to a short story by of the local marine food webs by studying Argentine author Jorge Luis Borges. the bones and shells left behind in middens The unifying theme of the exhibition (trash heaps), oral histories gathered from might be Dietrologia, an Italian word Aleut elders, and ecological data. (some say it’s an Italian worldview) that the surface or official explanation for Then, through analysis of the network struc- something can rarely be the real one. ture of these food webs, they discovered Maybe. that in both the intertidal and nearshore food webs, humans fed on approximately a Hidden behind the deceptively stoic ti- quarter of the species present, far more than tle “History, Networks, and Evolution” other predators in the systems. This varied is one science meeting not covered diet, ranging from primary producers like in this issue. The organizers, Manfred algae to top carnivores like sea lions, puts Vertical axes indicate trophic level. Sphere color indicates type of taxon: green = algae, blue = miscellaneous (e.g., Laubichler and John Padgett, wanted humans in a niche similar to other super- detritus, protozoa, bacteria, biofilms, lichen, seagrass), yellow = invertebrates, orange = fishes, red = mammals, pur- to do some deep thinking about think- ple = birds. Red arrows point to Homo sapiens. Six networks are represented: (a) Sanak intertidal web, (b) Sanak generalist predators like Pacific cod. ing: what is thinking, who (or what) is nearshore web, (c,d) Sanak intertidal and nearshore webs showing resources of Homo sapiens in color, (e,f) Sanak intertidal and nearshore webs showing taxa within two links of Homo sapiens in color. capable of thinking, etc. To get there, And, like other generalists, the Aleuts prey- (Images created with Network3D, available freely by request to [email protected].) they posed thought experiments: “How switched. As a favored prey species became do chemicals think?” “How do ecolo- difficult to find due to population decreases gies think?” “How do cities think?” or unfavorable environmental conditions, We’ll let you know what they come the Aleuts chose alternative food sources. Q up with…in the next issue. In food webs where predators prey-switch, – John German, [email protected] dwindling prey populations can bounce back and extinctions are rare.

“It’s a very stabilizing behavior for the CREDITS system,” says Dunne. Editor: John German Contributors: Jenna Marshall, Katie Mast, In addition, while simple technologies like fish hooks, spears, and kayaks helped the Nathan Collins, Krista Zala, Stephen Ornes, Aleut hunt some of their prey more inten- Rachel Feldman, Devon Jackson, Deb sively than expected for non-human preda- Trevino tors, Dunne’s analysis of the dynamics of Design & production: Michael Vittitow model food webs suggests that as long as The SFI Update is published bimonthly such intensive hunting was limited to a few by the Institute to keep its community prey species, it would cause few extinctions. informed. Please send comments or ques- Modern fisheries can put a very different tions to John German at [email protected]. pressure on food webs, she notes. Advanced Data for ten intertidal (left) and six marine (right) webs in order of increasing species richness. Data shown for Follow SFI online at technology allows for highly intensive trophic species versions of webs, where taxa with the same set of consumers and resources are aggregated into a www.santafe.edu fishing, and in many cases as a resource single node. RESEARCH NEWS SFI RESEARCH BRIEFS Tomorrow’s grid: Keeping the lights on

The big utilities are getting nervous. A technologies are being installed in a rather century ago, the North American power grid uncoordinated way,” says Trancik. “Electric was an unfolding technical marvel rooted in utilities are being forced to adapt, and in a nation’s way of life and delivering a clear this workshop we hope to step back and public good. understand the rate and characteristics of this transformation. We also plan to look at Today, innovation in energy technology, these changes within the context of history regulatory changes, and shifting social values and other sectors of the economy.” are de-centralizing the power supply. As more consumers install rooftop solar and “In some cases, new technologies can enter home batteries, fewer draw from the power disruptively, simply because they are cheap grid. Some states have enacted regulations and popular,” Moore observes. “In other to stop or slow certain disruptive changes. cases, there are signiﬁcant barriers to entry Others have viewed the progress as a prompt based on how we have built our infrastruc- to re-think the utilities’ business models. ture, written our regulations, trained our engineers, and so on. It also depends on so- Parallel worlds branching into the future, with reality selecting one trajectory through the space of possibilities. (Image: Ole Peters & Murray Gell-Mann) “What’s happening with the electric utilities in North America and around the world has a lot in common with what happened to the telecommunications companies at the advent A fundamental ﬂaw in economic theory of cell phones,” observes Seth Blumsack, an Simple gambles extend through all major branches of economic theory. And, according to energy expert who recently spent a sabbati- a new paper by SFI External Professor Ole Peters (London Mathematical Laboratory) and cal at SFI. Murray Gell-Mann, we’ve been wrongly conceptualizing them for some 350 years. The Blumsack (Penn State) is co-organizing an paper, published February 2 in the journal Chaos, presented two approaches for evaluat- April SFI workshop with SFI External Profes- ing gambles – expectation values and time averages. The authors demonstrated through a sor Jessika Trancik (MIT) and SFI Professor simple thought experiment that the time averages approach, which “hasn’t been fully ap- Cris Moore to parse the complex nature of preciated in economics so far,” is superior for evaluating risk. this transition in the electric power industry.

The workshop – The Nature of Techno- ciety’s default assumptions: for instance, why What makes cities unique…and the same logical, Social, and Industrial Innovation and did my home come with a refrigerator but At a basic level, cities share some remarkably similar patterns, according to a new paper in Transition in Power Generation and Delivery not with solar panels? Why will my mortgage the Royal Society’s Interface co-authored by SFI’s Hyejin Youn (Oxford), Luís Bettencourt, and – will bring scientists, historians, technology company help me buy a bigger house, but Geoffrey West. Assessing data from urban areas across the United States that included 20 experts, engineers, and policy experts to SFI not a more energy-efficient one?” million business establishments, the authors could identify trends across cities of different in early April to discuss creative ways to man- sizes and with different dominant industries. They discovered that while the particular variety age the ongoing and potentially disruptive SFI provides a unique opportunity to bring transition. together scholars from disparate areas to of industries and businesses may vary from one place to another, as cities grow, the general begin to explore these complex, interrelated ratio of business establishments and workers also grows at a predictable relative rate. Unlike two previous SFI workshops on the questions. power grid, which focused on engineering power delivery systems, the April workshop “What I’m hoping will come out of this Roots of gender disparity in computer science will explore social and regulatory issues and workshop are ideas for modeling or research SFI External Professor Aaron Clauset (CU Boulder), SFI Omidyar Fellow Daniel Larremore, and the role of innovation in our shifting electric- that capture how these technical and social CU-Boulder PhD candidate Samuel Way recently examined the persistent gender imbal- ity landscape. and regulatory systems can become more ances in university computer science departments, where women hold just 15 percent of all coordinated,” Blumsack says. “I also hope we tenure-track faculty positions. Their paper, published on arXiv.org, suggests that while overt “Energy conversion and storage technologies arrive at a more firm understanding of how gender bias in hiring practices might not be the primary cause of the disparity, more subtle are evolving rapidly, and new low-carbon all those systems impact one another.” Q contributing factors like documented productivity, publication rates, and ability to relocate to take new positions do correlate with gender in computer science faculty hiring networks. RESEARCH NEWS Human vulnerability key to managing climate change Modeling an ancient people Our historic vulnerability to climate change can inform the way we manage climate-induced disasters today and tomorrow, according to newly-published research in PNAS conceived Drawing on the richness of data and The researchers will be at SFI March 28-30 during a series of SFI working groups. Cross-disciplinary teams of archaeologists, historians, to discuss and refine the new model as part questions that arose out of agent-based and geographers examined social and environmental variables that affected historic and simulations of the Artificial Anasazi Project of an SFI working group. prehistoric peoples in the American Southwest and North Atlantic Islands. The researchers that originated at SFI in the mid 1990s, SFI discovered that social factors, like limitations on networks and mobility, were the primary External Professor George Gumerman and The first Artificial Anasazi simulation relied contributors to vulnerability to food shortage following a climate disaster. Q Alan Swedlund (UMass Amherst) have taken on empirical archaeological and paleo- their simulation one step further in a revised environmental/climatological data to chart model they call the Artificial Long House human population, distribution, growth, and Valley model. decline in the Long House Valley region of the Colorado Plateau from 800-1350 AD. It RESEARCH NEWS Developed in collaboration with Lisa Sat- provided a means for combining abundant tenspiel and Amy Warren (both of the multivariate data and testing scenarios with Is social science built on WEIRDness? theoretical models for population growth " There’s something odd about social science: attacks were for decades based entirely on and land abandonment !!" namely that our generalized understanding of studies of men – and women, it turns out, under climatic stress. broad swaths of humanity is based on a star- don’t experience the same heart-attack symp- By building house- tlingly narrow subset of that humanity. Many toms. That led to a big blind spot in clinical holds from realistic social science studies have, in fact, been based knowledge. ! probabilities based on sample groups of wealthy college students The same issues crop up in social science, says on individual-level from industrialized countries. Hruschka, an associate professor at Arizona data, the research- State University, an ASU-SFI fellow, and a for- ers aim to provide Psychologists and anthropologists plan to a more accurate convene at SFI to try to figure out what to do mer SFI Omidyar Fellow. “Working in diverse !$

! $&#!' ! about what’s called, appropriately, the WEIRD settings outside the US or Europe,” he says, " and generalizable “you begin to realize the importance of cul- model for predicting problem. outcomes in this and ture and the local environment in shaping not “The vast majority of scientific theory on " # other archaeological just what people think, but how they think.” If &' populations. human thought and behavior is derived from scientists want to understand the full diversity easily accessible populations in Western, Edu- of humanity, Hruschka says, they need to take Long House Valley (LHV) model plots of environmental stress and population growth in the Long House Valley, suggesting intense migration into the valley at It’s also a model they cated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic, or WEIRDness seriously. times of high environmental stress. hope to share with WEIRD, nations,” says evolutionary anthropol- other researchers. ogist Dan Hruschka, co-organizer of a March The working group, Combating Sample University of Missouri), the Long House “We believe our continued efforts will help working group that tackled WEIRDness. “In WEIRDness in the Social and Behavioral Sci- Valley model, with its disaggregated, to address some of the grand challenges fact, those people are often extreme outliers, ences, took some of the first steps to tackle in archaeology, as outlined in a recent SFI individual-level demographic processes, will which raises questions about the generalizabil- the problem. With funding from the National lead to a better understanding of human- workshop,” says Swedlund, “and that this ity of contemporary theories in the social and Science Foundation’s Developmental and environment interactions and deeper insight individual-level, agent-based modeling ap- behavioral sciences.” Learning Sciences and Cultural Anthropology into population structure in the Anasazi proach will have real world applications in programs, the group outlined the key barriers settlement in today’s northeastern Arizona. addressing questions about human responses The issue isn’t that scientists can’t learn to research in more diverse settings, as well as to environmental stress.” “This second model focuses on individu- anything from looking at one group of some solutions. In future meetings, Hruschka als,” explains Swedlund, “so we’re able to It might even offer the ability to better track people. Darwin, after all, made great strides says, they’ll work on developing recommenda- address complex demographic processes in processes such as disease risk, selection, and by examining just Galapagos finches. On the tions and tools so that others can more easily more dynamic ways.” migration, he adds. Q other hand, the recognized symptoms of heart fight WEIRDness. Q > Krakauer continued from page 1

Meanwhile, the ﬂagship SFI partnership venue, the former Business Network, gets a new name and an amped up mission.

ACtioN, for the Applied Complexity Net- work, offers enhanced membership beneﬁts as well as opportunities for members to engage more deeply in SFI’s science through an offering of premium bespoke programs, ranging from corporate think-fest retreats at the new SFI Studio on the Cowan Campus to short courses custom-curated at an ACtioN member’s request. (See “Introducing ACtioN” below right.)

ACtioN’s focus expands to include foundations, government agencies, think tanks, and nonproﬁts in addition to companies that had been greater than 90 percent of the network’s membership. Photo by Minesh Bacrania

Introducing ACtioN, the Applied Complexity Network

ACtioN, for the Applied Complexity Network, offers enhanced standard membership benefits for companies, foundations, government agencies, think tanks, and nonprofits, as well as opportunities for members to engage more deeply in SFI’s science through an offering of premium, customizable programs. Standard member benefits ACtioN topical meetings: Jointly organized by SFI and member organizations, these meetings take advantage of SFI’s unique convening power to bring complexity thinking to real-world business challenges.

The Vitamin events: Vitamin A, B, and C events, named for the intellectual “nutrition” they provide, give ACtioN members access to discussions on compel- Santa Fe artist James Drake delivers “Drake’s Proposition” during the inaugural meeting of SFI’s Broken ling, timely topics. Symmetry Society. QVitamin A (Advanced) events, occasionally open to ACtioN members where The new ACtioN also aims to accelerate the graduate students and postdocs with expertise permits, provide members with access to technical workshops and extension and application of the Institute’s multidisciplinary backgrounds whose working groups on specific questions in complexity science designed for the SFI scientific insights, says Krakauer. participation results in certificates in research community. complexity from SFI. Q “This is now hands-on engagement and Vitamin B (Business) events are insight-rich discussions that immediately follow, and extend, Vitamin A scientific meetings, designed to expose ACtioN collaboration,” he says. “We’re learning In the conversations category, much is members to the latest complexity insights. from members and members are learning under way. from us, and together, we’re creating QVitamin C (Complexity) events, hosted annually in Santa Fe, are our flagship something new. ACtioN is about applying “One feeling I’ve had is that the Santa Fe ACtioN meetings exclusively for ACtioN members, SFI trustees, and SFI research- complexity insights to real problems. Our Institute has always been about individuals,” ers, each centered on a compelling topic at the intersection of business and members are in a position to take these he says. “Let’s see what happens when we science. ideas the rest of the way.” also start having conversations with creative, smart, productive organizations – spirited Recruiting events: The SFI community gives ACtioN members a unique oppor- Krakauer’s “multiversity” concept, which organizations like the Institute.” tunity to connect with in-demand complexity thinkers in the early stages of their entails partnering with a half dozen or so careers. elite, graduate-degree-granting academic He has had exploratory discussions with institutions, is in the planning stage. NASA, Red Bull, Spaceport America, and ACtioN Complexity Explorer: Curated versions of SFI’s popular massive open Generally, it involves an exchange of top > more on page 5 online course (MOOC), featuring timely content from topical meetings, confer- ences, and interviews on a variety of topics – all exploring how complexity applies to real-world challenges. RESEARCH NEWS Vertex newsletter: Vertex keeps members up to date on the latest ideas and research from SFI, with a view to how those concepts apply to ACtioN organization What regulates what’s living where and how ACtioN members are tackling business challenges. and in what numbers? Complexity Intelligence Reports: Brief summaries of fresh new insights from SFI workshops and working groups throughout the year. The annual Complexity Catalogue aggregates these insights. Nature walks can inspire serenity and, for In harvester ant colonies, for example, the the inquisitive mind, questions. Why are queen doesn’t tell the others what to do. Complex Systems Summer School: Held in Santa Fe, the Complex Systems maples and ferns flourishing here together? Rather, the rate an ant meets others and the Summer School provides students and professionals with a rigorous month- Do they get along somehow? Why are there information they exchange determine long multidisciplinary program of lectures, laboratories, discussion sessions, and no maples on the other riverbank, where it’s whether the ant should keep doing what team projects designed as an introduction to complex behavior in mathematical, mostly alder trees? it’s doing or switch to, say, foraging. physical, living, and social systems. Five tuition-free spots are reserved for ACtioN members on a first-come, first-served basis (with additional spots available at the Such questions lie at the heart of ecology. “No ant really knows how much food they regular corporate rate). Every biological system, whether a cell, an have or need – that’s why it’s so interest- organism, a forest, or a society, can ing,” says Gordon. “They’re not all working ACtioN exclusive member opportunities replicate and does so using resources toward a known or personal goal, yet they ACtioN members can create bespoke programs, at an additional cost, allowing collected from its environment. Population meet the goals of the colony.” them to engage more deeply with the SFI community. regulation – what’s living where and in what numbers – is a principal outcome of This emerging understanding of decentral- Customized ACtioN topical meetings: The same convening power and exper- such interactions. The attempt to under- ized regulation prompted Gordon and tise as the ACtioN topical meetings, but fully customized to an ACtioN organiza- stand it has arguably been the organizing University of Utah mathematical ecologist tion’s challenges. Member companies select topic, location, and invite list. principle of the science of ecology. Frederick Adler to co-organize a working group, Centralized Versus Decentralized The SFI Studio Retreat: Part corporate retreat and part full-time immersion, the “Almost every group in nature has some Control in the Regulation of Populations, SFI Studio Retreat gives small groups a one- to two-week SFI experience at the process involved in regulating its numbers,” this month at SFI. Cowan Campus. Ideal for leadership teams and strategic planning exercises. says Stanford ecologist and SFI Science Board member Deborah Gordon, who During the meeting, researchers who study ACtioN Residential Fellowships: Individual ACtioN members can spend quality specializes in collective behavior in social such topics social insect colonies, cancer, time at the SFI campus participating as part of the research community. insects. Some regulation models are based and the city-states of ancient Greece Corporate Short Courses: Design a complexity curriculum that responds to your on centralized control or decentralized explored how centralized and decentralized organization’s interests and challenges, with a view to real-world applications. Q resource depletion, but scientists are finding control mechanisms interact to regulate that many systems blend the two. physiological, social, and human systems. Q PEOPLE Institute names Will Tracy as Vice President for Strategic Partnerships

SFI has selected Will Tracy as its new Vice tions; it combines the previous functions of Tracy has a longstanding relationship with Tracy comes to SFI from Rensselaer Poly- President for Strategic Partnerships. Tracy Advancement (responsible for relationships SFI. He took part in the Institute’s Complex technic Institute in Troy, New York, where will begin work on May 11 as VP Designate with SFI’s donor community) and the Systems Summer Schools in Beijing from he is the undergraduate program director on a part-time consulting basis and, Applied Complexity Network (known as AC- 2004 to 2008, serving as an associate for the Lally School of Management, beginning July 1, will join SFI full-time tioN, formerly the Business Network) into a director, faculty member, assistant, and assistant professor of strategic manage- as VP. new leadership role responsible for develop- student during that time. ment, and an affiliate faculty member of ing and maintaining all of the Institute’s the Severino Center of Technological The creation high-level partnerships. “SFI is one of my all-time favorite commu- Entrepreneurship. of a Strategic nities,” says Tracy. “I am thrilled to return Partnerships “We are delighted that Will will be joining at this exciting moment in the Institute’s He is also a guest research faculty member group signals a us as the new VPSP,” says SFI President history. David has laid out a bold vision for of the Indian Institute of Technology in shift toward a David Krakauer. “He is uniquely qualified the new Strategic Partnerships group and Kanpur, India; has worked for the World greater number for this position, having a deep familiarity and diversity of with business, education, and complexity ACtioN. Partnerships will play an increas- Bank in Washington, D.C.; and co-founded collaborative science. Furthermore, he is familiar with SFI ingly important role in purposefully an internet advertising startup in the U.S., partnerships through his engagement with our interna- disseminating the insights and break- later establishing that firm’s office in with companies, tional summer schools. With Will occupying throughs that occur at SFI. I look forward Shanghai. He holds a PhD in management universities, this new position, our partnerships and our to working with David and the entire SFI with a certificate in human complex nonprofits, and Applied Complexity Network will increase community to help make this vision a systems from UCLA’s Anderson School other organiza- in reach and relevance.” reality.” of Management. Q

> Krakauer continued from page 4 others. He can’t say what’s in the works, yet, interpret the Institute’s scientific programs. but stay tuned. “It won’t be boring,” he His complexity drawings can be seen here, says. each with a brief description of his approach: https://slate.adobe.com/cp/qQsOj/ Enhancing the conversation includes making more people more aware of the Institute’s SFI Satellites, another experiment, are research and the insights that arise from it. quarterly salon-style dinners in various cities Four new digital email publications are doing featuring SFI supporters and their hand- just that: Vertex (for ACtioN members), picked invitees, typically in a donor’s home Axiom (for SFI trustees), Axis (for the and featuring a stimulating conversation education community), and Matrix (for SFI’s with an Institute scientist. extended research community). In addition, the Institute’s bimonthly print newsletter, SFI’s education programs are experimenting the Update, will continue as Plex and will too, with new executive education offerings add a monthly digital version to the mix; in the works and the Complexity Explorer’s watch for these changes by summer. massive open online courses with enhanced student interaction activities. Experiments abound. Late last year, Krakau- er created the Broken Symmetry Society at “An essential element of SFI has always been SFI, which embraces Santa Fe’s rich culture its ability to rigorously perform experiments by actively engaging with artists, writers, on the fundamental architecture or mechan- poets, musicians, and other creative thinkers ics of knowledge production,” Krakauer with compelling perspectives. says. “Working with the extraordinary network of SFI-affiliated minds, we are now Creative, curious individuals have always exploring experiments at a higher energy looked to the Institute for inspiration and level. And like a very high energy accelerator, intellectual stimulation, and the Broken we hope to discover amazing new elements Symmetry Society formalizes those relation- of complex reality.” Q SFI VP for Science Jennifer Dunne speaks at a recent SFI meeting in Santa Fe exclusively for ACtioN members, SFI ships and adds to the Institute’s eclectic trustees, and SFI researchers – annual events now known as the Vitamin C (Complexity) events. (Image: InSightFoto) culture, Krakauer says. Its first informal evening get together of a half dozen artists in mid February featured a talk by Santa Fe artist James Drake.

“Broken Symmetry Society members, who we’re calling ‘orthogonals’ for their perspectives that come from all angles, can come here and be themselves, and that’s good for the intellectual environment here,” he says. “We’ll see where it takes us.”

Inaugural orthogonal Joerael Elliott, whose background is in grafﬁti and public art, spent the Orthogonal Joerael Elliott winter at SFI creating a series of six drawings that visually

Customized short course curricula that respond to an organization’s interests are among the new exclusive ACtioN member opportunities. (Image: Minesh Bacrania) “Mental Models of Complexity” by Broken Symmetry Society member Joerael Elliott. RESEARCH NEWS

Aerial view of the Kibera slum, Nairobi (Image: Kreuzschnabel, Wikimedia Commons, License: artlibre)

Making slums more disaster-resilient (and better for people) RESEARCH NEWS

Scientists at SFI and Arizona State University includes The Rockefeller Foundation and the “There are social, economic, and spatial (ASU), together with Slum Dwellers Interna- U.S. Agency for International Development). considerations in creating a street network To make sense of a tional (SDI), have been selected to tackle a in a neighborhood,” says SFI Professor Luís human development challenge: How might For many urban slums, the key to resilience Bettencourt, who leads SFI’s Neighbor- mountain of food urban slum communities become more resil- may lie in a development approach called hoods, Slums, and Human Development ient to the effects of climate change? “reblocking,” a process by which slum com- project with José Lobo of ASU’s School of web data, give it a munities physically rearrange themselves to Sustainability. “Unless you bring them all In the coming decades, climate change is create new streets and public spaces that together in a single platform that everyone jolt of math expected to drive more frequent extreme provide accesses to every residence and can use, it is very difficult to coordinate Interest in food webs, the networks of who weather events – such as hurricanes, floods, workplace, facilitating the universal intro- local communities, create good solutions, eats whom in an ecosystem, has exploded and droughts – in many regions. Such disas- duction of modern services and giving and collaborate with local governments. ters hit slum dwellers particularly hard be- each household an address. Technology and design can now help us do in recent years, and it is beginning to bring cause they exacerbate already poor access this much better.” with it a mountain of data – so much data, in to water, health care, emergency response, The SFI-SDI-ASU team is developing an fact, that ecologists can now ask not just how and other essential services. open-source digital reblocking platform that “By providing a map that can be iterated to food webs are structured, but also how those will allow slum residents to re-plan their create a well-serviced neighborhood, we en- structures depend on sample size, physical OpenIDEO’s Amplify Program provides communities with the minimum cost and sure that everyone involved is working from location, climate, or other characteristics of funding and design support for innovative disturbance. The platform allows users to a common reference,” says Christa Brels- the habitat. human development solutions. It selected map buildings, thoroughfares, and services ford, a postdoctoral fellow of the ASU-SFI an SFI-SDI-ASU proposal from hundreds in their communities and propose new lay- Center for Biosocial Complex Systems who In theory, they can answer those questions. of submissions to receive support from outs that most efficiently solve the problem has designed the Open Reblock algorithms The trouble, says SFI Omidyar Fellow Joshua the Global Resilience Partnership (which of universal access. and is helping develop the platform. Q Grochow, is that most scientists don’t really have the right mathematical tools to answer them rigorously, a problem that he, SFI Vice RESEARCH NEWS President for Science Jennifer Dunne, and colleagues are addressing during a March What can we learn from farming insects? working group.

Farming evolved independently in humans behavior and culture over time. to propose a working group of archaeolo- “The datasets of food webs really cry out for at least nine times. The practice was among gists, entomologists, and evolutionary better analysis, to do comparison and interpo- “If you can hit upon an adaptation that’s a the innovations that enabled complex civili- biologists. lation,” Grochow says, to see how food webs’ zations to develop. But we weren’t the ﬁrst really good one, like agriculture, then you’re structures depend on something as simple as species on the block to raise our own food: apparently tremendously successful [as a The group, Convergent Evolution of Agri- latitude or something more complex, such as various leafcutter ants, termites, and beetles species],” he says, pointing out that both culture in Insects and Humans, ﬁrst met in the introduction of parasites. have been cultivating other organisms for humans and leafcutter ants live everywhere August 2014 to discuss the evolution, fun- millions of years. on Earth. damental practices, and social effects of farming. In April the group will reconvene Right now, network science offers only Such analogous behavior piqued the interest A “typical broad-ranging SFI conversation at SFI with empirical data on the above somewhat crude and ad hoc ways to answer of SFI External Professor Peter Peregrine, a over lunch” some years ago uncovered farm- topic and on species’ agricultural practices questions like that, largely because it offers Lawrence University anthropologist who de- ing parallels between humans and various including managing substrates, mutations, mostly simple measures of food web structure velops datasets and tools to analyze human insects, he says, enough to prompt him weeds, and pests. – for example, the number of species each organism eats, how many feeding links away Other compelling topics may each animal is from primary producers, and also be explored. (An intrigu- how many species are omnivores, cannibals, ing social note: human health or herbivores. is known to have declined as agriculture arose – might insects “It turns out that rigorous comparison of have faced similar impacts?) network structure across datasets is a very challenging, non-straightforward, problem,” Not surprisingly, comparing Dunne says. Grochow and Dunne hope to de- impacts of agriculture on or be- velop more sophisticated analysis approaches. tween insect species is markedly tricky. “For humans, we have a One idea is to compare the frequency of dif- record of the way things were ferent sized motifs – smaller structures that before agriculture and how it show up repeatedly within a larger network looks afterward,” Peregrine – across different food webs, though that’s says. “Agriculture in ants is 50 just one possibility; analysis has been done million years old.” Despite the of three-node motifs in food webs, but not paucity of before-and-after larger motif sets. pictures of farming insects, their success (often with mono-crops) By bringing together rich databases from might offer insights into how to ecology and rigorous new thinking from improve our own techniques. computer science, Grochow and Dunne say, they will be better prepared to search for This working group is funded in general patterns in food webs as well as the part by the ASU-SFI Center for underlying mechanisms that drive observed Leafcutter ants and fungus garden. (Image: Alex Wild, alexanderwild.com) Biosocial Complex Systems. Q ecological organization. Q RESEARCH NEWS Art, science, and data representation

“It’s not your standard SFI science meeting,” Dome at the Institute of American Indian Arts says Jennifer Dunne, SFI’s VP for Science, who in Santa Fe. The Digital Dome is an immersive is co-organizing a four-day working group in video projection environment used for audio- March, Ecological Data Dramatization for Art visual storytelling. and Science, with David Stout, Professor of Composition Studies and Coordinator for the The working group’s members will see what Initiative for Advanced Research in Technol- the Digital Dome has to offer by way of ogy and the Arts (iARTA) at the University of aesthetics and creative information technol- North Texas. ogy, particularly how advanced visualization and audio display technologies can foster the Stout and four other new media artists, formulation of new ways of engaging with composers, and artist-programmers will join ecological concepts, data, and dynamics. ecologists Dunne and SFI Omidyar Fellow Andrew Berdahl for an SFI-style explora- Dunne foresees interesting issues arising tion of the intersection of art, science, and around different scales of representation. In technology. the ecological sense, this could mean working with data on individual animals or plants Dunne says the group will investigate oppor- that allow insight into collective behavior of tunities for visualizing and “sonifying” simple populations (migration dynamics of a herd to complex ecological data and dynamical of caribou, for example, one of the species algorithms for a variety of purposes, including generating new art forms and creating new Berdahl is studying), or how populations of ways to visualize empirical and model data different kinds of organisms interact, which streams that are helpful in a scientific context. gets into the complex food web structures and dynamics Dunne studies. Part of the meeting is meant to be pragmatic, focusing on exploring cutting-edge approach- The artists will have their own thoughts es and technologies for both artistic and about what makes a particular type or level scientific goals. But much of the meeting will of representation interesting. entail freewheeling conversation about what art, science, and technology bring to the “Overall, there’s a very creative, playful char- table and how they are similar and different. acter to what we’ll be talking about,” Dunne says. “That’s something at the heart of both The immersive Digital Dome at the Institute of Ameri- On the meeting’s second day, participants art and science: creativity and the creative can Indian Arts in Santa Fe (Image courtesy IAIA) will take a field trip to explore the new Digital process.” Q

PEOPLE SFI RESEARCH BRIEFS Artemy Kolchinsky: How expensive is information processing?

Prior to his grid. Their question: Given such a system, recent appoint- how can we find a compression of it that still ment as a gives us good predictions but is much postdoctoral cheaper to run? fellow at SFI, Artemy Kolchin- Another project investigates connections sky worked with between information processing and EEG and statistical physics. A longstanding notion is functional MRI that to perform a computation, a minimum data, looking at amount of energy is required. “David demon- how highly strated that the amount of entropy dissipated integrated the can depend not only on the function, but The bacterium Pseudomonas brain is on what you expect the inputs to be,” says flourescens streaked to single different scales. Kolchinsky. “There is a certain thermody- colonies and visualized under namic cost to making the wrong predic- white light. He says he has always been fascinated by the tions.” The researchers are working toward (Image: Wikimedia Commons) relationship between complexity and generalizing and extending these results. cognition. “The brain is the archetypal complex system,” says Kolchinsky, who Finally, the two are beginning to work on hopes to use novel mathematical techniques understanding why different social groups Switching states a winning strategy for multicellular life to understand ever-increasing amounts of develop different organizations, whether the Environmental triggers may have tipped the transition from single- to multi-cellular life, ac- brain imaging data. group is a prehistoric tribe or a business firm. cording to an Evolutionary Ecology study by former SFI REU Emma Wolinsky and SFI Omidyar Here again appears the idea that information Fellow Eric Libby. The researchers simulated three evolutionary strategies that could have While at SFI, Kolchinsky is working with SFI processing is a costly resource. Some types of coordinated growth and reproduction across multiple cells of Pseudomonas fluorescens Professor David Wolpert on several projects organizations appear to use this resource to related to optimal use of information and coordinate group activity more efficiently bacteria in a changing environment. The best strategy for multicellularity proved to be an prediction. One is the problem of modeling than others. epigenetic, external sensing scheme wherein a cell’s DNA switches its phenotypic expression and analyzing complicated dynamical in response to cues from the external environment. systems that require large amounts of time Prior to joining SFI, Kolchinsky received a PhD and computational power to simulate. An in informatics (with focuses on complex example would be the propagation of systems and cognitive science) from Indiana How organisms adapt to their own adaptations disturbances and blackouts on an electrical University. Q A new paper by SFI External Professor Juan Pérez-Mercader and colleague Matthew Egbert addresses the puzzle of how organisms regulate and respond to their own adaptations. In Nature Scientific Reports, the researchers published a computational model demonstrating that “interoceptive” mechanisms, which regulate according to cues within the organism, > Bluebird’s conundrum continued from page 1 outperform “exteroceptive” mechanisms that take their cues from the environment alone. The work could influence theories of how early life evolved and “could prove useful in the Behavioral ecologists usually expect to see “An individual’s fitness accumulates over its helping behavior dominantly in monogamous lifespan, and we need to effort to create more robust synthetic life forms.” populations with low EPP, where the helper take that into account is guaranteed a close genetic relationship to when we’re looking Scale independence, at minimum his younger siblings. However, the additional at the evolution Scale independence is a ubiquitous feature of complex systems, from protein networks to factors of age bias and longevity change the of behavior.” Q financial markets. In Physical Review E, SFI Postdoctoral Fellow Laurent Hébert-Dufresne and formula for bluebirds. colleagues identify two dynamical properties that must both be present in order for scale- “If you have this combination of an age independence to evolve in networks. They validated their minimalistic model using data from bias – such that young males are not likely to “diverse spheres of human activities ranging from scientific and artistic productivity to sexual sire offspring in another male’s nest but old relations and online traffic.” males are – and if helpers and their parents have a survival advantage, you can get this evolution of helping behavior even in systems Why and how far hunter-gatherer groups migrate with high rates of EPP,” says Stern. Hunter-gathers around the world often migrate when food resources become scarce. Just how far and how often they move varies widely. A new model developed by several SFI- The behavioral ecology literature is beginning affiliated researchers – Marcus Hamilton, Eric Rupley, Hyejin Youn, Geoffrey West, and Jose to acknowledge the importance of consider- Lobo – explains and predicts the variation in observed residential mobility by understanding ing a species’ full life history when studying behaviors, says Stern. “Our study is a case- the evolved biomechanics of humans and the available energy in their particular ecosystems. in-point for the need to do this,” she says. Female and male bluebirds (Image: David Moldoff) Their study was published February 1 in Complexity Digest. Q RESEARCH NEWS Report to POTUS: Now’s the time to SFI Online promote urban innovation Multimedia content available at www.santafe.edu

The newly-released report to the President Video: Los Alamos’s Karissa Video: Economics Nobel laureate of the United States, Technology and the Sanbonmatsu explores epigenetics Daniel Kahneman discusses with Future of Cities, makes concrete policy and its implications for autism, ad- SFI Board of Trustees Chairman recommendations for promoting innova- diction, depression, Alzheimer’s, and Michael Mauboussin why noncausal, tion and improving lives, drawing from SFI even love. SFI Community Lecture statistical models routinely outper- research and insights about cities and form intuition. SFI Business Network Video: A recent SFI paper finds an urbanization. interview underlying structure uniting human languages, at least for univer- Video: Neurophilosopher Patricia A group of experts, including SFI Professor sal core concepts. Quartz magazine Churchland explores how the Luís Bettencourt, contributed to the report, animated video short latest research into consciousness, which was issued by the President’s memory, and free will can help us re- Council of Advisors on Science and Audio: SFI External Professor Brian examine identity and other enduring Technology (PCAST). Arthur explains the principles and philosophical, ethical, and spiritual history of the SFI-inspired El Farol bar questions. SFI Community Lecture Says Bettencourt: “The main societal problem. Relatively Prime podcast challenges we face today are urban and must be addressed in cities. We tried to provide a map for how the powerful integration of systemic urban science, a number of emerging new technologies, and action by city governments and other RESEARCH NEWS understanding of urban dynamics than stakeholders is now poised to make a big ever before, the time is right to promote difference. I hope PCAST’s proposals for technological innovation in cities. It makes Asking why pertussis is back, SFI style how the federal government can be a a variety of recommendations for the critical enabler of these processes can federal government to engage with cities Pertussis (better known as whooping cough) work together in concert,” he says. Most become a model for future integrated through place-based policy. And it sug- has made a comeback in recent years in the likely, researchers will have to look at many urban policy.” gests ways for individual cities to collect United States, but understanding its reemer- mechanisms and their interactions – a classic and share data to further innovation. gence and global prevalence isn’t a simple complex system challenge, making SFI an The report notes that with Big Data matter. A swath of researchers, diverse even ideal place to hold the workshop, he says. collection and analytics and a better Read the full report at whitehouse.gov. Q by SFI standards, will converge to address pertussis and other reemerging infectious Scarpino and his fellow co-organizers, including diseases at a workshop beginning March 21. Aaron King (University of Michigan), have BOOKS BY SFI AUTHORS “It’s going to be a full house,” says workshop invited mathematicians, public health experts, ecologists, biologists, geneticists, and even A Crude Look at the Whole: The Science of Complex Systems in Busi- organizer and former SFI Omidyar Fellow Sam computer scientists, many of them from ness, Life, and Society (Basic Books, 2016) by SFI External Professor Scarpino. He and his fellow researchers will try to tackle one of the more peculiar aspects outside the U.S., and some who haven’t John H. Miller calls for a revolution in scientific perspective – from the of pertussis: In some parts of the world, the studied pertussis before. Their outside perspec- reductionist, fragmented study of individual parts to a generalized, disease is on the rise, while in others, it’s in tives, Scarpino says, could help everyone come theoretic look at dynamical systems. This “crude look,” a reference to decline. Globally, Scarpino says, “it’s not clear to a better understanding of the disease. a quote from Murray Gell-Mann, may be the only way to understand how one accounts for all this data.” emergent patterns that link beehives to stock markets or cities to heart- For fresh insights, “I think you have to have beats, and otherwise tackle intractably complex problems. Q There are plenty of hypotheses, including the all those people in the room,” Scarpino says. possibility that pertussis evolved in a way that makes the current vaccine ineffective, or The broader purpose of the workshop, perhaps, as Scarpino and fellow former SFI Scarpino says, is to understand how the Omidyar Fellow Ben Althouse recently various facets of infectious disease, from proposed, it’s because the vaccine allows the infection dynamics to the evolution of disease to spread even when people don’t develop symptoms, such as the persistent pathogens, work together and result – or don’t coughing fits most commonly associated with result – in outbreaks. “Pertussis is how we’re the bacteria. trying to focus that question,” Scarpino says.

But, Scarpino says, “We’re not looking for This working group is funded in part by the one mechanism. We’re looking for how they ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems. Q

> Hard modularity continued from page 1 March / April 2016 March / April 2016

I spend on reinforcing the opinion of my whose aggressive approach may steer the friends versus trying to convince strangers or vote toward middle-ground candidates. opponents? Should my strategy differ based (The meeting concluded just before the ﬁrst on the strategies of my opponents? Republican primary.)

Surprising observations emerged. Aggres- Their approach is general enough to be rel- sive strategies with no chance of winning, evant to a range of networks, from parasite for example, affected a game’s outcome transmission to marketing, but there remain by conferring more power to a different, questions Hébert-Dufresne would like to otherwise unsuccessful strategy. Hébert- answer. “How extreme must a strategy be Dufresne compares this observation to the to completely change a game?” he asks.

UPDATE U.S. presidential campaign of Donald Trump, “Or to have no impact at all?” Q

Upcoming community events

SFI Community Lecture, Tuesday, April 12, 7:30 p.m., The Lensic Performing Arts Center (211 W. San Francisco Street) — Emerging Diseases, Deadly Lessons. It has been more than two years since conﬁrmation of the Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreak in West Africa. Now, with the end of the outbreak in sight, we have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to learn from the experience. The global impact of that epidemic, and recent outbreaks of SARS and inﬂuenza, offer critical insights on preventing future such crises. Mathematical biologist Carlos Castillo-Chavez illustrates the crucial role ecological, social, political, and economic factors play in the spread of devastating diseases and their implications for preventing future epidemics. This talk will be presented in both English and Spanish.

Hyde Park Road Carlos Castillo-Chavez is an SFI external professor and a Regents Professor and professor of mathematical biology at Arizona State University. He has co-authored more than 200 scholarly

1399 Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501 505.984.8800 www.santafe.edu publications. He is a member of the Board of Higher Education at the National Academy of Sciences and serves on President Barack Obama’s Committee on the National Medal of Science.

SFI’s 2016 Community Lectures are made possible through the generous underwriting of Thornburg Investment Management, with additional support from The Lensic Performing Arts Center. Lectures are free and open to the public, but seating is limited. To watch a lecture as it happens, visit SFI’s YouTube page; participate in the discussion live on Twitter at @SFIlive.