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Global Scenarios: Background Review for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystems (2005) 8: 133–142 DOI: 10.1007/s10021-004-0074-2 Global Scenarios: Background Review for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Paul D. Raskin Stockholm Environment Institute–Boston/Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02116, USA ABSTRACT The long-range outlook for the world’s ecosystems level of quantitative detail used in these exercises. depends on the course taken by global develop- Taken together, this suite of global scenario studies ment in the coming decades. Current global trends provides a useful platform for the MA by offering and ecological dynamics are consistent with very insight into the complex factors that drive ecosys- different outcomes, defined by alternative tem change, estimating the magnitude of regional assumptions about the technological, economic, pressures on ecosystems, sounding the alert on demographic, geopolitical, and social aspects of critical uncertainties that could undermine development and the ways in which institutions, sustainable development, and understanding the personal and public values, and natural systems importance of institutions and values. But these may be expected to respond to historically novel studies are only a point of departure. The inte- stressors. Recent advances in scenario analysis have gration of changing ecosystem conditions into glo- addressed the dual methodological challenge of bal development scenarios, as both effects and exploring these uncertainties in an organized way causes, is at the cutting edge of scenario analysis. and determining what would be needed to make The paper concludes by identifying directions for the transition to sustainability. This paper reviews this research program and suggesting ways that the global scenario research, setting current efforts in a MA can contribute to this effort. historical context. It focuses on seven recent studies that are comprehensive, regionally disaggregated, Key words: ecosystems; scenarios; sustainability; and narratively rich—and thus of greatest rele- global futures; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; vance to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment global modeling; social visions. (MA). It summarizes their social visions and the INTRODUCTION conditioned by far-flung global influences—patterns of production and consumption, the character of As global systems grow ever more interconnected, economic globalization, cultural distinctions, inter- the fate of the Earth’s ecosystems becomes increas- national governance, geopolitical conflict, migra- ingly coupled to global development patterns. The tion, and global warming. It is essential, therefore, to factors that directly affect ecosystem condi- situate the analysis of the long-range prospects for tions—land change, resource exploitation, pollu- ecosystems in the context of global development. tion, hydrology, and climate change—are A useful point of departure is the suite of recently conducted global scenarios studies that are de- scribed in this paper. Although the treatment of Received 14 May 2003; accepted 17 March 2004; published online 28 February 2005. ecosystems in these exercises has been minimal, *Corresponding author; e-mail: [email protected] they nonetheless suggest new ways of formulating 133 134 P. D. Raskin integrated conceptual frameworks, developing and biophysical factors that are amenable to alternative global visions, and quantifying eco- quantification. nomic, social, technological, and environmental Scenario analysis has its roots in the strategic drivers. This rapidly evolving corpus of work is an planning exercises and war games devised in the important resource that can support the task of early years of the cold war (Kahn and Wiener developing more comprehensive visions of the fu- 1967). But the direct antecedents of contemporary tures and, in particular, help us to elaborate the scenario research are the future studies of implications of ecosystems. the 1970s. This first wave of global scenarios in- The quest for sustainable development has cluded ambitious mathematical simulation models moved the task of making projections about the (Meadows and others 1972; Mesarovic and Pestel future to the center of policy and scientific agendas. 1974; Herrera and others 1976), speculative futur- Animated by the core concern of passing on an ology (Kahn and others 1976), and foresight exer- unimpoverished world to future generations, sus- cises for corporate managers (Wack 1985; Schwartz tainability studies confront a number of challeng- 1991). A new round of studies in the 1990s included ing questions. How might the trajectory of global pure narrative (Burrows and others 1991; Milbrath development evolve over the coming decades? Are 1989), optimistic projections (CPB 1992), pessi- we currently on a sustainable path? What surprises mistic visions (Kaplan 1994), surprising futures and critical uncertainties could deflect the global (Svedin and Aniansson 1987; Toth and others system in novel directions? How might environ- 1989), and the countless model-based climate mental, social, and economic processes interact, change scenarios summarized in the most recent feed back on each other, and amplify change? assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel What actions, policies and value changes can best on Climate Change (IPCC 2001). ensure a sustainable future? The early practitioners of global scenario assess- New methods are needed to address these critical ment paved the way by showing the power—and questions about the future in an organized and limits—of both deterministic modeling and integrated fashion. Predictive modeling is well sui- descriptive analysis. In an attempt to transcend ted to the simulation of well-understood and these limits by blending narrative and quantifica- deterministic systems (Peterson and others 2003). tion, recent studies have been grounded in im- But it is insufficient for the study of the long-range proved global data sets and a fuller understanding future of highly complex socio–ecological systems, of the dynamics of the planetary system, while also which are inherently uncertain, exhibit novel phe- reflecting the potential for surprise and structural nomena, and are subject to human choices that are bifurcation inherent to complex socioecological not yet made. Such systems are capable of branch- systems. The challenge for the Millennium Eco- ing into fundamentally different pathways, all of system Assessment (MA) is to enhance these global which would be consistent with current conditions, scenarios, which have been deficient in ecosystem trends, and driving forces of change. As an alter- analysis, by incorporating the bidirectional effects native to prediction, scenario analysis has emerged that development choices can exert on ecosystems as a key methodology for exploring alternative fu- and that ecosystem change can exert on develop- tures, identifying critical uncertainties, and guiding ment (Cummings and others 2005). action. Scenarios draw from the human imagination as ECENT CENARIO TUDIES well as science to provide an account of the flow of R S S events leading to vision of the future. In essence, Which of this wealth of scenario studies might scenarios are plausible stories about how the future provide useful resources for this effort? We can might unfold from existing patterns, new factors, narrow the candidates considerably by identifying and alternative human choices. The stories can be the needs of global ecosystem assessment and told in the languages of both words and numbers. focusing on these exercises that address them. First, Indeed, the great strength of scenario research lies the multiple drivers of ecosystem change and the in its blending of the richness, texture, and imagi- long chains of causation require that relevant sce- native qualities of narrative with the structure, narios provide integration across social, economic, replicability, and rigor offered by modeling. The and environmental dimensions. Second, scenarios narrative gives voice to the qualitative factors that should include quantification of key variables linked shape development, such as values, behaviors, and to ecosystem conditions. Third, they should span a institutions, while modeling offers empirically long time horizon, at least several decades. Fourth, based insights into the subset of socio-economic they should be global in scope, but offer regional Global Scenarios Review 135 disaggregation, because the analysis of ecosystem duced climate change and their implications for change will be conducted at various spatial scales. energy-related and land-use emissions. Four basic Finally, they should explore multiple futures that scenarios are provided, along with numerous vari- span a broad range of plausible global visions over ants on the basic set. Six modeling groups estimated the coming decades. greenhouse gas emissions for the scenarios, and an These criteria exclude hundreds of economic and open process solicited participation and feedback. demographic projections, sectoral and thematic scenarios, and regional and national scenarios IMAGE (Raskin 2000). We are led to seven major recent scenario studies (Table 1). The scope of the individual models used in the SRES is broader than the limited set of climate- Global Scenario Group relevant outputs in the final SRES report. One of the modeling groups, the Dutch National Institute Convened in 1995 by the Stockholm Environment for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Institute, the Global Scenario Group (GSG) is an has continued to use their IMAGE
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