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Environmental Impacts 07-AB-1632 DOCKET 08-IEP-1F DATE RECD. OCT 27 2008 AB 1632 ASSESSMENT OF CALIFORNIA’S OPERATING NUCLEAR PLANTS EPORT R FINAL REPORT ONSULTANT C Prepared For: CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION INAL F Prepared By: MRW & Associates, Inc. October 2008 CEC-100-2008-005-F Prepared By: MRW & Associates, Inc. Steven C. McClary, Heather L. Mehta, Mark E. Fulmer and Laura B. Norin 1814 Franklin Street, Suite 720 Oakland, CA 94612 Prepared For: California Energy Commission Barbara Byron Senior Nuclear Policy Advisor Contract and Project Manager Melissa Jones Executive Director DISCLAIMERS This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. AB 1632 (Chapter 722, Statutes of 2006) authorizes the California Energy Commission to work with other public entities and agencies, including the California Seismic Safety Commission, to gather and analyze information related to the vulnerability of the state's largest baseload power plants to a major disruption due to a seismic event or plant aging. In places where this report contains input from staff of the Seismic Safety Commission, it does not reflect input from the full California Seismic Safety Commission nor have the Commissioners approved the report. While Seismic Safety Commission staff members are licensed professionals familiar with certain aspects of seismic systems, they do not perform engineering, geological or other licensed work. Consequently, their input does not constitute work by licensed professionals on the Seismic Safety Commission or its staff. The Seismic Safety Commission does not assume responsibility for the accuracy, integrity or reliability of any aspect of the contractor's report nor does the Seismic Safety Commission regulate, certify, approve or disapprove of this report. The Consultant Team This report is the product of a collaborative effort by individuals at MRW & Associates, Inc. (MRW), ABS Consulting (ABS), Aspen Environmental Group (Aspen), Ventyx (formerly Global Energy Decisions), and EllerStone D’Paul, Inc. collectively referred to as the “Consultant Team.” Individuals from these companies provided expertise for various aspects of this interdisciplinary report. MRW provided policy and economic expertise as well as overall project management; ABS provided expertise in nuclear plant engineering, geology, and seismology; Aspen contributed environmental and socioeconomic expertise; Ventyx assisted with the resource planning analysis; and EllerStone D’Paul provided research and editorial support. A list of the individuals that contributed to this report is provided below. MRW & Associates, Inc. EllerStone D’Paul, Inc. Steven McClary Richard Steen Heather Mehta Paul Ghuman Mark Fulmer Laura Norin Briana Kobor Andrew Davidson David Howarth ABS Consulting David Johnson Paul Thenhaus Clyde Morton James Liming Ronald McHugh Eric Wang Theodore Barnhard Steven Harris David Hampson Aspen Environmental Group Suzanne Phinney Heather Blair Chris Cooke Emi Kiyan Ventyx Richard Lauckhart Ajit Kulkarni Shawn Mu i Acknowledgements The Consultant Team thanks all those who contributed to the preparation and review of this report or participated in the AB 1632 process. Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee initiated this review of policy and reliability issues associated with the use of California’s operating nuclear plants. The Energy Commission’s Electricity and Natural Gas Committee and 2008 IEPR Committee, led by Commissioners James Boyd, Jeffrey Byron, and Jackalyne Pfannenstiel, spearheaded the project and provided guidance and insight on the project scope and objectives. The Seismic Vulnerability Advisory Team provided valuable feedback on multiple drafts of the report. Their expertise provided the Consultant Team new perspectives on the seismic literature, and their careful reviews sharpened the text and conclusions of the seismic vulnerability assessment. The Seismic Vulnerability Advisory Team was comprised of Richard McCarthy, Bob Anderson, and Fred Turner of the California Seismic Safety Commission; Mark Johnsson of the California Coastal Commission; Michael Reichle, Bill Bryant, and Chris Wills of the California Geological Survey; and Matt Silver and Bob Strand from the California Energy Commission. Several Energy Commission staff members assisted in planning and reviewing the report. Michael Jaske took the lead on the reliability implications of nuclear plant outages. He helped plan and then interpret the production simulation modeling, and he provided helpful feedback on the report text. Karen Griffin provided insightful comments on the replacement power analysis and other policy issues. Eugenia Laychak contributed to the reviews of once-through cooling and the seismic vulnerability assessment. Bob Emmert of the California Independent System Operator and members of the public who participated in the public workshops or submitted written comments provided useful information and added important perspectives. Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison provided extensive information in response to California Energy Commission data requests and also provided comments on the study plan and the draft report. This information was invaluable to the Consultant Team. Finally, many Energy Commission staff, including Suzanne Korosec, Chris Marxen, Joe O’Hagen, Dave Vidaver, Claudia Chandler, and Susanne Garfield-Jones, provided valuable technical and editorial advice. We would also like to thank Susanne Garfield-Jones and her staff, including Bob Aldrich, Nancy Hassman and Carol Greenwood, for helping with the final production of the report and web team support. Donna Parrow provided administrative and logistical support to the project and Jerome Lee helped with managing the audio visual equipment during the workshops. ii Abstract This consultant report was prepared in response to Assembly Bill 1632 (“AB 1632”- Blakeslee, Chapter 722, Statutes of 2006), which directed the California Energy Commission to assess the potential vulnerability of the state’s two operating nuclear power plants to a major disruption due to a seismic event or plant aging; to assess the impacts of such a disruption on system reliability, public safety, and the economy; to assess the costs and impacts from nuclear waste accumulating at these plants; and to evaluate other major issues related to the future role of these plants in the state’s energy portfolio. The report considers the seismic vulnerabilities of the nuclear plant sites, structures, and spent fuel storage facilities and the vulnerability of the plants to age-related degradation. The report also considers the impacts of a major disruption at the plants on the reliability of California’s transmission grid and power supply. Finally, the report considers a number of policy areas related to California’s operating nuclear plants, including the cost, land use, and local economic impacts of nuclear waste accumulation at the plant sites; the economic and environmental tradeoffs among alternative power supply options; and potential implications of renewing the operating licenses of the nuclear plants. Keywords Nuclear energy, nuclear power, California Energy Commission, Diablo Canyon, San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, SONGS, Hosgri Fault, seismic, earthquake, tsunami, operating basis earthquake, safe shutdown earthquake, design basis, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, nuclear waste, nuclear waste storage, nuclear waste disposal, nuclear waste transport, Department of Energy, DOE, spent fuel, safety culture, Independent System Operator, CAISO, production simulation, outage, replacement power, reliability, low- level waste, renewable power, life cycle, once-through cooling, license renewal, relicensing, electricity, dry cask, independent spent fuel storage installation, ISFSI, greenhouse gas emissions, GHG emissions, USGS, US Geological Survey iii iv Contents LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................... X LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................................ XI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 1 STUDY APPROACH .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................................ 2 Seismic Hazards at Diablo Canyon ........................................................................................................................ 5 Seismic Hazards at SONGS ...................................................................................................................................
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