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Railway Sector Assessment for Republic of Kazakhstan

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Railway Sector Assessment for Republic of Kazakhstan Railway Sector Assessment for Republic of Kazakhstan The report summarizes the findings of the railway sector assessment for Republic of Kazakhstan, based on a country visit conducted on 16 to 21 September 2019. The purpose of this assessment is to examine the setting, characteristics, performance and prospects of railways, and identify promising investment opportunities, commercialization and reform actions that could be considered for support through the ADB technical assistance for Railway Sector Development in CAREC countries. About the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program is a partnership of 11 member countries and development partners working together to promote development through cooperation, leading to accelerated economic growth and poverty reduction. It is guided by the overarching vision of “Good Neighbors, Good Partners, and Good Prospects.” CAREC countries include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, the People’s Republic of China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. RAILWAY SECTOR ASSESSMENT FOR REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN MARCH 2021 RAILWAY SECTOR ASSESSMENT FOR REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN MARCH 2021 Note: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. Cover design by Edith Creus. Photo credits on the cover, from left to right: Transloading containers from standard gauge to broad gauge near the border between Kazakhstan and the the People’s Republic or China (photo by TA consultant). Locomotive assembly plant in Astana City (photo by Asian Development Bank). A container block train operating on the railway section between Almaty and Khorgos (photo by TA consultant). Map: The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of ADB, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries, colors, denominations, or information. CONTENTS TABLES AND FIGURES iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v ABBREVIATIONS vi CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS vi 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1 A. Introduction 1 B. The railway network and port facilities 1 C. Institutional responsibilities for railways 4 D. Routes relevant for cross-border freight 5 E. Relevant CAREC corridors 9 2 TRENDS IN RAILWAY TRAFFIC 14 A. Introduction 14 B. Analysis of traffic 14 3 MARKET COMPETITIVENESS 19 A. Introduction 19 B. Market feedback 19 C. Problems affecting rail competitiveness 20 4 RAILWAY OPERATING AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 22 A. Introduction 22 B. Commercial orientation 22 C. Financial performance 23 D. Operational benchmarking 24 5 PROPOSALS FOR INVESTMENT, COMMERCIALIZATION AND REFORM 28 A. Introduction 28 B. Policy setting 28 C. Proposals for support from CAREC Railway Sector Development TA 29 D. Main opportunities for support under CAREC Railway Sector Development TA 31 APPENDIX: CAREC DESIGNATED RAIL CORRIDORS 32 REFERENCES 34 iii TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES 1.1 Rolling Stock, 2012–2017 3 2.1 Trends in Total Freight Transport and Railway Freight Transport, 2007–2017 14 2.2 International and Domestic Railway Freight, 2012–2017 15 2.3 Commodity Composition of Railway Freight Volume, 2016 16 2.4 Freight Volume and Turnover by Main Route and Railway Corridor, 2017 18 3.1 Market Feedback on Rail Competitiveness for Different Traffic Types 19 4.1 Profitability and Borrowings of KTZ Group 23 5.1 More Promising Opportunities for Kazakhstan for Possible Support under CAREC Railway Sector Development TA 31 FIGURES 1.1 Railway Network of Kazakhstan, 2017 2 1.2 Administrative Structure of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy Group 5 1.3 Regional Rail Links and Ports Serving Crossborder and Transit Traffic 6 1.4 Sections of CAREC Corridor 1 Relevant for Kazakhstan 9 1.5 Sections of CAREC Corridor 2 Relevant for Kazakhstan 10 1.6 Sections of CAREC Corridor 3 Relevant for Kazakhstan 11 1.7 Sections of CAREC Corridor 6 Relevant for Kazakhstan 12 2.1 Trends in Container Transit Traffic, 2015–2017 17 2.2 Traffic Volume on CAREC Railway Corridors, 2015 18 4.1 KTZ Operating Margins and Ratios of Debt and Interest to EBITDA 23 4.2 Comparison of Railway Length and Staff Size in Kazakhstan, Other CAREC Member Countries and Other Leading Railway Countries 25 4.3 Comparison of Railway Rolling Stock Fleet in Kazakhstan, Other CAREC Member Countries and Other Leading Railway Countries 25 4.4 Comparison of Annual Railway Freight and Passenger Traffic Levels in Kazakhstan, Other CAREC Member Countries and Other Leading Railway Countries 26 4.5 Comparison of Railway Track and Staff Productivity in Kazakhstan, Other CAREC Member Countries and Other Leading Railway Countries 26 4.6 Comparison of Locomotive and Wagon Productivity in Kazakhstan, Other CAREC Member Countries and Other Leading Railway Countries 27 iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This country railway sector assessment is part of an Asian Development Bank (ADB) technical assistance (TA) project on Railway Sector Development in Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Countries. The project has been assisting CAREC member countries to identify promising opportunities for investment in cross- border railways and develop railway commercialization and reform measures to strengthen railway performance in accordance with the CAREC Railway Strategy approved by CAREC ministers in 2017. Preparation and supervision of the project was led by Jurgen Sluijter, Senior Transport Specialist, and overseen by Dong-Soo Pyo, Director, Transport and Communication Division, Central and West Asia Department. Administrative support was provided by Krisanta Carissa Vila, Associate Project Analyst. Project activities were guided by the members of the CAREC Railway Working Group, CAREC Railway Focal Points and national TA coordinators. The Kazakhstan railway sector assessment was prepared by a team of TA consultants. Country-level consultations and research were carried out by Tyrrell Duncan, Team Leader/Railway Specialist, Udo Sauerbrey, Railway Reform and Restructuring Specialist and Yelena Vassilevskaya, Transport Specialist. Report preparation was led by Tyrrell Duncan. Valuable insights and information were provided by Kazakh Railways, the Ministry for Industry and Infrastructure Development, other government departments, international development partners and representatives of the private sector. Useful comments were provided by ADB staff including Giovanni Capannelli and Guldana Sadykova. v ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank ASCO – Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company BTK – Baku-Tbilisi-Kars CAREC – Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CIS – Commonwealth of Independent States CMO – corridor management organization CRC – China Railway Corporation EBITDA – earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization EBRD – European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EEU – Eurasian Economic Union FSU – former Soviet Union ICT – information and communication technology ITF – International Transport Forum KTZ – Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (Kazakh Railways) MC – Member Country MIID – Ministry for Industry and Infrastructure Development PRC – People’s Republic of China SOE – state-owned enterprise TA – technical assistance TEU – twenty-foot equivalent TITR – Trans-Caspian International Transport Route TRACECA – Transport Corridor Europe–Caucasus–Asia UIC – International Union of Railways CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 1 June 2020) Currency unit – tenge (T) T1.00 = $0.0024 $1.00 = T412.41 vi 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND A. Introduction of railways, and identify promising investment opportunities, and commercialization and reform 1. In 2017, the eleven Member Countries (MCs) actions, that could be considered for support through of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation the TA. This short report summarizes the findings of (CAREC) program approved the CAREC Railway the railway sector assessment for Kazakhstan, based Strategy with a view to expanding the role of railway on a country visit on 16–21 September 2019. transport in the region.1 The strategy aims to accelerate the identification, preparation and financing of feasible railway investment projects and, at the same time, advance the commercialization and reform of railways B. The railway network to improve their performance (ADB 2017). and port facilities 2. In 2018, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved a $2 million regional technical 1. Railway network assistance (TA) project for CAREC Railway Sector Development to assist MCs in implementation of 4. The Republic of Kazakhstan is a vast the CAREC Railway Strategy (ADB 2018).2 The TA landlocked, upper-middle income country with a is intended to accelerate the sound development of population of 18.28 million in 2018 (ADB 2019). the railway sector in CAREC countries by providing With a land area of 2.72 million square kilometers, support for railway transport market research, project it is the ninth largest country in the world by area and identification and preparation, knowledge sharing and the largest landlocked country. Much of the country preparation of practical actions for commercialization consists of Kazakh steppe. The country has borders and reform in MCs. with the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan and 3. During the first part of TA implementation, Uzbekistan. From the northwest to the northeast, the the TA consultants conducted assessments of longest border is shared with the Russian Federation. the railway sector in each MC. The purpose of In the east
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