Toc Basics Guide Copy

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Theory,of,Change,Basics A,PRIMER,ON,THEORY,OF,CHANGE

Dana,H.,Taplin,,Ph.D. Heléne,Clark,,Ph.D.

March,2012

1 Theory of Change Basics

Introduction August 26, 2011 Volume VII Theory of transparent so that everyone involved knows what change is a is happening and why. To be clear, every outcome in rigorous yet the theory is explicitly defined. All outcomes should participatory be given one or more indicators of success. As process implementation proceeds, organizations collect and whereby analyze data on key indicators as a means of groups and monitoring progress on the theory of change. stakeholders in Indicator data show whether changes are taking a planning place as forecast or not. Using the indicator data process program staff can adjust and revise their change articulate their model as they learn more about what works and long-term goals what does not. and identify the conditions they Rationales in a theory of change explain the believe have to connections between the outcomes and why one unfold for outcome is needed to achieve another. those goals to Assumptions explain the contextual be met. These underpinnings of the theory. Often, rationales and conditions are assumptions are supported by research, strengthening the plausibility of the theory and the modeled as 1 desired likelihood that its stated goals can be achieved . The graphic model in theory of change is accompanied outcomes, arranged graphically in a causal framework. by a written narrative that explains the logic of the framework. A theory of change describes the types of Theory of change can be both a planning and issue- interventions (a single program or coordinated initiative) that bring about the outcomes depicted in framing tool and a monitoring and evaluation tool. the outcomes framework map. Each intervention is In articulating long-term outcomes, preconditions, tied to an outcome in the causal framework, and interventions, ToC forms the basis of visioning revealing the often complex web of activity required papers, strategic and/or annual plans, and goal-setting to bring about change. The framework provides a processes. As an evaluation tool ToC identifies the working model against which to test hypotheses and specific goals of the program and ties those goals to assumptions about what actions will best produce particular interventions. Data can then be collected the outcomes in the model. to evaluate progress toward the stated goals as well as the effectiveness of interventions in producing Adherence to the theory of change method keeps outcomes. the processes of implementation and evaluation

ToC maps out your initiative through stages:

Identifying long-term goals and the assumptions behind them Backwards mapping from the long-term goal by working out the preconditions or requirements necessary to achieve that goal--and explaining why. Voicing your assumptions about what exists in the system without which your theory won’t work, and articulating your rationales for why outcomes are necessary preconditions to other outcomes. Weighing and choosing the most strategic interventions to bring about your desired change. Developing indicators to measure progress on your desired outcomes and assess the performance of your initiative. Quality review should answer three basic questions: Is your theory 1) plausible, 2) “doable” (or feasible), and 3) testable? Writing a narrative to explain the summary logic of your initiative.

2. Long-term framework are preconditions for audience. Perhaps the most Outcome achieving this outcome. important step in the entire ToC process is getting the long-term Often, a group has a vision of An outcome is a state or outcome right. The long-term change that transcends what they condition that does not currently outcome is what you are trying to can achieve through their own exist but must be in place for your achieve. A clear, compelling long- efforts. In that case we put a initiative to work. An outcome term outcome helps keep people dashed line, called an may represent a change in a group focused and motivated. It is for “accountability ceiling,” above the of people, organizations, or places. this that stakeholders are doing all LTO (e.g. stable employment) and Outcomes are the building blocks the hard work. Your entire first have an ultimate goal (e.g. end of of your Theory of Change. The ToC meeting may be spent getting poverty in the community). Your Long-term Outcome (LTO) is the everyone to agree on the long- group will not hold itself goal you want to reach, which is term outcome. the purpose of your program, e.g. accountable for this goal, but it academic achievement for youth, may be important to link your In facilitating ToC-building or employment for a certain efforts to it in the causal sessions, we often start with group. All other outcomes on your framework to communicate your trying to elicit a problem vision to your own staff and statement from the group. The partners as well as to a broader problem statement is the core © 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: [email protected] 3 issue that everybody at the table is statement to derive its positive Make sure that everyone has the trying to address, such as poverty opposite. Since all outcome same definition of the long-term or poorly achieving students or statements should be positive outcome. In the example about neighborhood crime. We have the statements about a condition, the making a neighborhood safe, it is group get very specific about that group can ask what condition will critical that everyone agree on the problem and its boundaries result from the removal of the what “safe” means, and on the (where and for whom) for the problem. A safe neighborhood, for boundaries of the neighborhood. purposes of this initiative. example, is the long-term outcome When the group reaches for a problem statement about consensus about the long-term Once the group has decided on neighborhood violent crime. outcome and how it is defined, the appropriate problem record it. statement, they should use the

3. Causal Pathways and Backwards Mapping A pathway is the sequence in which outcomes must Most initiatives have multiple pathways that lead to occur to reach your long-term goal. Pathways are the long-term outcome. For example, there might be depicted by vertical chains of outcomes connected to a law enforcement pathway, a community involvement one another by arrows, proceeding from early pathway, and a community resources pathway that outcomes at the bottom to longer-term outcomes at together lead to safe neighborhoods via a series of the top. Pathways represent a causal logic; each level preconditions. along the pathway depicts the chain of outcomes that Sometimes in an outcomes framework we represent must come into being for the next outcome up the certain preconditions that belong together in a chain to be achieved. category as a cluster. The clustering shows a group of A key component of the ToC experience is the preconditions that belong together conceptually and process of “backwards mapping,” beginning with your that interact with one another. All together, they long-term outcome and working back toward the function as a joint precondition to outcomes farther earliest changes that need to occur. This is the along on the framework. Rendering them in a cluster opposite of how we usually think about planning, avoids the need to draw arrows from each because it starts with asking “What preconditions precondition to outcomes farther up the hierarchy. must exist for the long-term outcome to be The cluster shows interdependence among the reached?” rather than with “What activities can we be individual preconditions without requiring us to doing to advance our goals?” That comes later in the diagram the internal causal relationships. process.

© 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: [email protected] 5 4. Assumptions and Rationales In ToC, assumptions are conditions or resources difference between them is that assumptions are that your group believes are needed for the success already in place and do not need to be brought of your program, and which you believe already about--in other words, conditions you take for exist and will not be problematic to maintain. granted. It is important to air and discuss the Assumptions and preconditions are both conditions assumptions going in as wrong assumptions can that are necessary for your program’s success. The undermine your theory of change.

Probing for often-implicit theory wouldn’t work, because as another chance to make clear assumptions in a group setting can the lack of transportation would the assumptions your group is reveal the different understandings become a barrier to employment. making about the world for your and beliefs that people bring to theory to be successful. During the process of creating the the effort. Bringing assumptions long-term outcome and drilling Rationales explain the logic behind to the surface and developing a down into precondition pathways, each causal relationship on the consensus on which assumptions participants should articulate as pathway. Many of these will come are true is a critically important many of their assumptions about out naturally in conversation foundation for constructing an the change process as they can so when someone suggests a achievable theory of change. So, that they can be examined and precondition. Try to capture these for example, in a ToC about even tested to determine which as they come out. You may want creating employment in a key assumptions may be hard to to elicit clear rationales when community, a precondition may be support or unrealistic. The there is disagreement among the that suitable, decent-paying jobs facilitator needs to be listening for group about whether something exist. Your initiative will take assumptions and challenging the truly is a precondition. After all action to bring that about. The group to discuss them. You may the preconditions in the group may also be assuming that be able to capture these framework have been identiﬁed, the existing public transportation assumptions as they come out in review the logic with the group to which people need to get to the conversation. You should also do capture any rationales that did not job locations will continue to this when you think the outcomes come out during the pathway operate. That doesn’t need to be framework is complete, as a check development process. a precondition; the transportation on the logic of the pathways and is there. But if it weren’t the

Interventions are the things your program or group space and teachers, choosing a curriculum, screening of stakeholders will undertake to bring about students, etc. outcomes. Sometimes people use the terms Interventions can be located on an outcomes “strategy” or “activity." We use strategy to mean a framework by means of symbols positioned along the coordinated sequence of interventions, using a connectors. The appropriate place to locate an variety of tools and calculated for optimal leverage, intervention symbol is on the connector that leads to bring about the desired outcomes. We use activity from the precondition to the outcome that to describe all the speciﬁc actions that make up an precondition helps to produce. Some interventions intervention. So, for example, an intervention might may contribute to multiple outcomes. In that case, be “literacy classes” and the various activities needed you should locate those interventions in all the to make that happen would be things like identifying appropriate places.

In the TOC process, we After the outcomes framework them in. You may have to concede deliberately ask groups to hold off has been completed the group can that the program or activity does on interventions—i.e., what meet to plot the interventions. If not help advance toward your they’re going to do--until they the program is already operating, long-term outcome. Or, it may have identified what needs to you can start by mapping all the suggest that you have missed an happen (what outcomes need to interventions your program is outcome in developing your be produced). This way, only currently undertaking to the framework. After mapping those interventions that best outcomes they are meant to existing interventions, or if your contribute to the accomplishment contribute to. Don’t force program is new, walk through the of outcomes are included in the interventions that do not readily framework to identify places theory. This also allows the group directly contribute to the where an intervention is to see just where each outcomes on the framework. necessary and decide which intervention fits into the big Existing programs may find a intervention would best picture. home in the theory but if they accomplish this. don’t, it’s best not to shoehorn

Indicators are the measurable evidence of meeting a ✓ How much does your target group need to goal, usually visible signs, (e.g. reading scores, change? In other words, how good is “good attendance) that demonstrate that the outcome has enough”? For example, if students improve reading been fulfilled. Indicators can involve quantitative scores by one grade, is that sufficient? Or how measures or qualitative information. Each indicator many sessions must participants attend of a class needs to have four targets: How many of who or what or workshop to attain the skill being taught? will reach what level by when? Again, the level or quality of necessary change is determined by what you believe is needed to fulfill ✓ How many of your population do you expect will the outcome. change based on your initiative? For example, do you expect 80 percent of students in a school to ✓ By when does the outcome need to be reached at reach your goal? Or do you expect to find jobs for the level and for the number of people you have 100 residents? As with all components of specified? The timeline for reaching any given indicators, the goal for your population should be outcome depends on the timeline for reaching the set by combining your vision for change with a outcomes above and below it on the pathway. So, realistic assessment of your resources. Indicator for example, if residents will not have completed a targets should be based on how many or what literacy class until the end of the year, it is proportion of people or behavior need to change unrealistic to expect to see an increase in literacy for the outcome to be fulfilled. rates any earlier. Likewise, if the long-term outcome is that parents read to their children ✓ Who or what needs to change? For example, are within three years, you can work backwards to we talking about third graders in a particular determine by when they need to have increased school district, or maybe health clinics in the state? literacy and motivation.

Ideally each outcome in the indicator can be assumed to classrooms are a precondition to theory will have multiple serve as a proxy for other improving a school’s reading indicators and the initiative will outcomes on the pathway. scores, the indicators for that have the capacity to collect data might be to have two new Factors to be considered in on them all. In reality, an computers and a new set of class identifying indicators include organization or collaborative will books for 8 of 12 classrooms what data are readily accessible have limited resources for within a year. as well as what types of monitoring and evaluation. information will be most Typically, indicators are While ActKnowledge convincing, both within the group determined at two different recommends that basic and to outside audiences. For times during the TOC indicators be identiﬁed for all each indicator that you develop, construction phase. One is outcomes in the theory, we remember to develop all of its during the construction of the realize that groups may choose targets (i.e. how many, who or precondition pathways. to fully develop and collect data what, what level, by when). Your Sometimes, it can be very helpful on a chosen subset of indicators. indicator should make it to stop and develop an indicator The choice of which indicators extremely clear to everyone for an outcome that the group to put into operation will what you will consider success may be unclear about or there is depend on your means, for a given outcome. For some disagreement about. availability of data, and whether example, if better equipped Developing an indicator spelling the outcome associated with this

© 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: [email protected] 8 out measurable success for the several participants and assign then review. Indicator outcome will force the group to development of indicators as development doesn’t tend to be on the same page about that homework, then come back and lend itself to group meetings. You outcome. review them together as a often need to refer to external group. You might also assign sources to see what others have The other time is after all the development of the indicators to used as indicators for various outcomes have been identiﬁed. the researchers among the outcomes or to ﬁnd out what At this point, you may want to group and have the whole group data are available, etc. divide the outcomes between

7. Quality Review Will these indicators be sufficient to make Quality review should answer three basic questions: corrections in your Is your theory 1) plausible, 2) “doable” (or feasible), course toward the and 3) testable? LTO and to evaluate Plausibility refers to the logic of your pathways. Does success of your it make sense? Are the outcomes in the right order? program? Will they Are preconditions actually preconditions to the be convincing to outcomes you’ve indicated? Are there big gaps in the necessary audiences? logic? Quality review should be an ongoing process during Feasibility refers to how realistic it is that your the construction of your theory. Your group should program and/or initiative can achieve your long-term constantly be referring to the appropriate quality outcome. Do you have the resources to implement review questions. During the construction phase, all the interventions you’ve specified? Do you need you may want to invite outside reviewers, either to bring in additional partners? Do you need to with content-specific expertise or as key power adjust the scope, expectations or timeline of your brokers, to provide feedback on your theory. Finally, theory? there should be a formal quality review going over the entire theory after you have finished all the Testability refers to how well you have crafted your components. indicators. Have you identified solid, measurable indicators that can be evaluated in a timely manner?

8. Narrative The narrative is a summary of your theory that explains the pathways of change, highlights some of your major assumptions, rationales, and interventions, and presents a compelling case as to how and why your initiative expects to make a difference. The narrative may also contain some information that is additional to what is in your theory, such as your overall vision, the history of how your initiative came to be, and some community context. The purpose of the narrative is twofold: (1) to convey the major elements of your theory easily and quickly to others; (2) to better understand how the elements of the theory work as a whole. Narratives should be kept to one or two pages. After you have completed all the elements of your ToC, have someone try to draft an executive summary, in plain English, that describes the highlights of your ToC. Then, have the group review it to see if it does capture key elements and explanations of the theory that are enough to make a compelling case without all the details.