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Toc Basics Guide Copy ActKnowledge, 365$Fi'h$Avenue,$6th$Floor New$York,$NY$10016 Telephone$212.817.1906 www.actknowledge.org$$ Theory,of,Change,Basics A,PRIMER,ON,THEORY,OF,CHANGE Dana,H.,Taplin,,Ph.D. Heléne,Clark,,Ph.D. March,2012 1 Theory of Change Basics Introduction August 26, 2011 Volume VII Theory of transparent so that everyone involved knows what change is a is happening and why. To be clear, every outcome in rigorous yet the theory is explicitly defined. All outcomes should participatory be given one or more indicators of success. As process implementation proceeds, organizations collect and whereby analyze data on key indicators as a means of groups and monitoring progress on the theory of change. stakeholders in Indicator data show whether changes are taking a planning place as forecast or not. Using the indicator data process program staff can adjust and revise their change articulate their model as they learn more about what works and long-term goals what does not. and identify the conditions they Rationales in a theory of change explain the believe have to connections between the outcomes and why one unfold for outcome is needed to achieve another. those goals to Assumptions explain the contextual be met. These underpinnings of the theory. Often, rationales and conditions are assumptions are supported by research, strengthening the plausibility of the theory and the modeled as 1 desired likelihood that its stated goals can be achieved . The graphic model in theory of change is accompanied outcomes, arranged graphically in a causal framework. by a written narrative that explains the logic of the framework. A theory of change describes the types of Theory of change can be both a planning and issue- interventions (a single program or coordinated initiative) that bring about the outcomes depicted in framing tool and a monitoring and evaluation tool. the outcomes framework map. Each intervention is In articulating long-term outcomes, preconditions, tied to an outcome in the causal framework, and interventions, ToC forms the basis of visioning revealing the often complex web of activity required papers, strategic and/or annual plans, and goal-setting to bring about change. The framework provides a processes. As an evaluation tool ToC identifies the working model against which to test hypotheses and specific goals of the program and ties those goals to assumptions about what actions will best produce particular interventions. Data can then be collected the outcomes in the model. to evaluate progress toward the stated goals as well as the effectiveness of interventions in producing Adherence to the theory of change method keeps outcomes. the processes of implementation and evaluation © 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: [email protected] 2 ToC maps out your initiative through stages: Identifying long-term goals and the assumptions behind them Backwards mapping from the long-term goal by working out the preconditions or requirements necessary to achieve that goal--and explaining why. Voicing your assumptions about what exists in the system without which your theory won’t work, and articulating your rationales for why outcomes are necessary preconditions to other outcomes. Weighing and choosing the most strategic interventions to bring about your desired change. Developing indicators to measure progress on your desired outcomes and assess the performance of your initiative. Quality review should answer three basic questions: Is your theory 1) plausible, 2) “doable” (or feasible), and 3) testable? Writing a narrative to explain the summary logic of your initiative. 2. Long-term framework are preconditions for audience. Perhaps the most Outcome achieving this outcome. important step in the entire ToC process is getting the long-term Often, a group has a vision of An outcome is a state or outcome right. The long-term change that transcends what they condition that does not currently outcome is what you are trying to can achieve through their own exist but must be in place for your achieve. A clear, compelling long- efforts. In that case we put a initiative to work. An outcome term outcome helps keep people dashed line, called an may represent a change in a group focused and motivated. It is for “accountability ceiling,” above the of people, organizations, or places. this that stakeholders are doing all LTO (e.g. stable employment) and Outcomes are the building blocks the hard work. Your entire first have an ultimate goal (e.g. end of of your Theory of Change. The ToC meeting may be spent getting poverty in the community). Your Long-term Outcome (LTO) is the everyone to agree on the long- group will not hold itself goal you want to reach, which is term outcome. the purpose of your program, e.g. accountable for this goal, but it academic achievement for youth, may be important to link your In facilitating ToC-building or employment for a certain efforts to it in the causal sessions, we often start with group. All other outcomes on your framework to communicate your trying to elicit a problem vision to your own staff and statement from the group. The partners as well as to a broader problem statement is the core © 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: [email protected] 3 issue that everybody at the table is statement to derive its positive Make sure that everyone has the trying to address, such as poverty opposite. Since all outcome same definition of the long-term or poorly achieving students or statements should be positive outcome. In the example about neighborhood crime. We have the statements about a condition, the making a neighborhood safe, it is group get very specific about that group can ask what condition will critical that everyone agree on the problem and its boundaries result from the removal of the what “safe” means, and on the (where and for whom) for the problem. A safe neighborhood, for boundaries of the neighborhood. purposes of this initiative. example, is the long-term outcome When the group reaches for a problem statement about consensus about the long-term Once the group has decided on neighborhood violent crime. outcome and how it is defined, the appropriate problem record it. statement, they should use the 3. Causal Pathways and Backwards Mapping A pathway is the sequence in which outcomes must Most initiatives have multiple pathways that lead to occur to reach your long-term goal. Pathways are the long-term outcome. For example, there might be depicted by vertical chains of outcomes connected to a law enforcement pathway, a community involvement one another by arrows, proceeding from early pathway, and a community resources pathway that outcomes at the bottom to longer-term outcomes at together lead to safe neighborhoods via a series of the top. Pathways represent a causal logic; each level preconditions. along the pathway depicts the chain of outcomes that Sometimes in an outcomes framework we represent must come into being for the next outcome up the certain preconditions that belong together in a chain to be achieved. category as a cluster. The clustering shows a group of A key component of the ToC experience is the preconditions that belong together conceptually and process of “backwards mapping,” beginning with your that interact with one another. All together, they long-term outcome and working back toward the function as a joint precondition to outcomes farther earliest changes that need to occur. This is the along on the framework. Rendering them in a cluster opposite of how we usually think about planning, avoids the need to draw arrows from each because it starts with asking “What preconditions precondition to outcomes farther up the hierarchy. must exist for the long-term outcome to be The cluster shows interdependence among the reached?” rather than with “What activities can we be individual preconditions without requiring us to doing to advance our goals?” That comes later in the diagram the internal causal relationships. process. © 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: [email protected] 4 An Outcomes Framework © 2012-2013. ActKnowledge, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprints by permission only at: [email protected] 5 4. Assumptions and Rationales In ToC, assumptions are conditions or resources difference between them is that assumptions are that your group believes are needed for the success already in place and do not need to be brought of your program, and which you believe already about--in other words, conditions you take for exist and will not be problematic to maintain. granted. It is important to air and discuss the Assumptions and preconditions are both conditions assumptions going in as wrong assumptions can that are necessary for your program’s success. The undermine your theory of change. Probing for often-implicit theory wouldn’t work, because as another chance to make clear assumptions in a group setting can the lack of transportation would the assumptions your group is reveal the different understandings become a barrier to employment. making about the world for your and beliefs that people bring to theory to be successful. During the process of creating the the effort. Bringing assumptions long-term outcome and drilling Rationales explain the logic behind to the surface and developing a down into precondition pathways, each causal relationship on the consensus on which assumptions participants should articulate as pathway. Many of these will come are true is a critically important many of their assumptions about out naturally in conversation foundation for constructing an the change process as they can so when someone suggests a achievable theory of change. So, that they can be examined and precondition. Try to capture these for example, in a ToC about even tested to determine which as they come out.
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