Issue 26| January 2018

www.rsis.edu.sg/research/cms/ Issue 26 | January 2018

Trump in Asia: Free Trade Under Threat? Page 2-3

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From Commitment to Compliance: ASEAN Is Free Trade in Human Rights’ Re- gression? Page 4

Stepping Up: How Smaller Economies Trouble in Can Help to Keep Multilateralism Alive Page 4

———————— Asia ? Pursuing Inclusive Trade in the Multilat- eral Trading System Page 5

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Building a Culture of Compliance Through a Stronger Rules- Based ASEAN Page 6

International Security in the Asia-Pacific: Alan Chong Page 6

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Jumpstarting South Asia: Pradumna Rana & Wai-Mun Chia Page 7

Editorial Team

Aédán Mordecai President Donald J. Trump departs China , courtesy of The White House Official Flickr Account, photo by Phidel Vineles Shealah Craighead.

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Issue 26| January 2018 FEATURED COMMENTARY

Trump in Asia: Free Trade Under Threat?

By Aédán Mordecai

President Donald Trump and ASEAN Leaders. Courtesy of the Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead.

‘America First’ has been dominated by the North consistent trade deficits ness of this perspective, the prevailing tagline guid- Korea and South China that America had with especially in the age of ing Trump’s trade policy. Sea situations. Economic many major economies. production networks that As he returns from his re- observers will have been span multiple countries, Coming under particular cent extended tour of Asia, watching his words care- meaning the fluid move- scrutiny were multilateral what is the outlook for US- fully, looking for clues as to ment of components is trade deals. NAFTA was Asia trade? which way his future trade crucial for many industries. labelled the ‘worst trade policy towards Asia might Trump’s mercantilist-like Commentary deal ever made’ and the be headed and whether views on trade ignore the proposed Trans-Pacific PRESIDENT TRUMP’s there is reason to worry. nuances of trade and mu- Partnership (TPP) was visit to Asia on one of his tual benefits, in favour of Trump’s Protectionist constantly ridiculed, with longest foreign tours to an alternative zero-sum Tendencies one of Trump’s first official date, as leader of the game reality. acts in office being the world’s largest economy, The worries regarding formal withdrawal from the No Drastic Moves on went relatively quietly. The trade and potential protec- TPP. Trade? five-country visit which tionism all stem from last began in Japan and ended year’s presidential cam- Understanding Trump’s Since his inauguration and in the Philippines included paign in the United States. perception of trade is key the withdrawal from the some important events Trump rode into the presi- to making sense of his TPP there have not been such as the Asia-Pacific dency thanks in part to a priorities. His administra- any drastic moves regard- Economic Cooperation wave of populist anti- tion has cultivated an im- ing trade, but tension still (APEC) Summit in globalist sentiment, with age of a global system that exists. Peter Navarro, who Danang, Vietnam as well trade deficits continually contains clear winners and was made head of the as the ASEAN Summit in on the agenda. China losers, painting deficits as White House Office of Manila, Philippines. faced the worst accusa- ‘bad’ and surpluses as Trade and Manufacturing tions but the overall narra- ‘good’. Policy, is a notoriously an- Whilst trade issues were tive was that America had ti-China economist when it high on his lists of priori- Many economists would made bad deals in the past comes to trade, and many ties, the tour was arguably disagree with the absolute- and this was proven by the Continued on Page 3 Page 2

Issue 26| January 2018 will be wondering how the two countries ‘was not much influence he has over fair and isn’t open’, sug- the White House’s policies. gesting Japan should man- What is APEC? ufacture more of its cars in The WTO has also been The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is a regional eco- the US, seemingly oblivious targeted by the Trump ad- nomic forum established in 1989. It is consist of 21 member coun- to the fact that the majority ministration by blocking the tries , which all aim to promote balanced, inclusive, sustainable, inno- of Japanese branded cars vative, and secure growth through regional economic integration. It appointment of judges sold in the US are also pro- also helps member countries to facilitate trade through faster customs needed for the organisa- duced there. procedures as well as to have more favourable business climates tion’s much admired Dis- through alignment of regulations across the region. pute Settlement Body as In China he described the well as failing to nominate a current trade relationship as permanent representative very ‘one sided’ but used to the WTO. Trump has this point to attack the pre- consistently been disparag- vious administration’s imposing a tariff on prod- his presidency so far. ing of the multilateral insti- weakness and exonerating ucts from another country, tution, insisting the US los- China of any blame stating, Considering he has created and given Trump’s inability es ‘almost of the lawsuits’, ‘Who can blame a country a narrative that deficits to work successfully with despite the reality being for taking advantage of an- equate to a bad trade rela- Congress and the pro-free entirely different. other country for the benefit tionship, he will be judged trade nature of the Republi- of its citizens?’. by this measure and will Meanwhile, in April a com- can Party, this seems un- come under increasing prehensive review of all Then came the APEC Sum- likely. pressure if the trade num- trade relations was ordered mit in Da Nang, which gave He has other options, how- bers, particularly with many by the White House, coun- a platform for Trump to ever, which can be carried Asian economies, do not try by country and product state he was pursuing ‘fair out unilaterally, through significantly swing the other by product. All the signs trade’, a similar message rarely-used legislation or way. seem to suggest protection- that had been communicat- creative taxes indirectly ist moves will follow, and ed at G20 earlier this year. The tour of Asia seemed to targeting imports. The most will be applied bilaterally, The emphasis on ‘fair trade’ be setting the scene for a likely target in the near fu- bypassing the multilateral as opposed to ‘free trade’ is different approach to trade ture would be steel coming system. pertinent as the US admin- and preemptively justifying from China, as it could be istration tries to change the protectionist measures. The Though the trip to Asia did carried out via executive narrative making room for worry for Asia, and espe- not produce any shocks in orders. This is despite the protectionist based policies cially ASEAN, is if this will terms of trade, as the presi- fact that imports of Chinese in the future. lead to a chain reaction of dent’s tweets aimed at the steel have already been protectionism, or will remain Kim Jong Un regime some- Should Asia Be Worried? significantly reduced, an isolated incident. ■ what overshadowed the thanks to previous anti- If protectionist measures tour, he largely stuck to his dumping measures. are taken by the US, it is script. However, there were important to consider what Predictability has not been Aédán Mordecai is a Senior indications of Trump’s shape they will take and the a hallmark of the Trump Analyst with the Centre for ‘America First’ trade policy. process. Constitutionally, administration so it is diffi- Multilateralism Studies While in Japan, Trump de- Congress has to approve cult to know what exactly (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam clared that trade between the future holds. However it School of International would be overly optimistic Studies (RSIS), Nanyang to think that Trump would Technological University, last the rest of his term Singapore. without making a move on

trade, as it would be hugely popular with his base. George W. Bush set a prec- edent here by putting tariffs up to 30 percent on all steel imports in 2002, to placate the ‘rust belt’ states despite international protests. Play- ing to Trump’s base, partic- ularly during moments of Australian Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull takes a selfie with fellow heavy pressure, is probably Asia Pacific Leaders as part of APEC, Photo courtesy of the US Em- the most predictable trait of bassy Canberra

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Issue 26| January 2018

From Commitment to Compliance: ASEAN’s Human Rights Regression? On 12 October, the Centre regression?’, as part of the Prof Collins explained the Prof Collins’ research fo- for Multilateralism Studies RSIS Seminar Series on Spiral Model and how cused on identifying the (CMS) hosted Professor Multilateralism Studies. ASEAN fits into it. The obstacles that exist in Alan Collins from Prof Collins has published Spiral Model is a theoreti- ASEAN’s pursuit of suc- Swansea University, Unit- extensively on ASEAN cal model in political sci- cessfully becoming com- ed Kingdom as he gave a and the role of civil society ence that attempts to ex- pliant with legal human seminar on ‘From commit- in the region as well as the plain the steps a nation- rights standards. The re- ment to compliance: security community in state goes through to gression of democracy in ASEAN's human rights Southeast Asia. change their norms re- the region has also argua- garding human rights and bly led to a regression in eventually becoming com- the level of human rights pliant with international in the region. According to standards. Prof Collins Prof Collins’ research argues that majority of study, ASEAN’s move- ASEAN nations and ment cannot be described ASEAN as a whole, are as being in a single direc- displaying a commitment tion of improvement. As a to human rights to interna- result, ASEAN nations tional observers and the have many issues to ad- international community as dress in order to one day a whole, but there are comply with international many obstacles for standards. ■ ASEAN to begin actively and effectively complying with international human Prof Alan Collins discussing ASEAN human rights regression at The rights standards. Keypoint, RSIS.

Stepping Up: How Smaller Economies Can Help to Keep Multilateralism Alive

As part of the RSIS Semi- eral rules making pro- nar Series on Multilateral- gress. ism Studies, Mr Evan Rog- Mr Rogerson emphasised erson, gave a seminar on that the current climate for ‘Stepping up: How Smaller multilateral institutions is Economies Can Help to particularly perilous, with Keep Multilateralism Alive’ many movements across on 16 October 2017, de- the Western world moving tailing his thoughts on the away from that system, current situation of the highlighted by the appoint- multilateral trading system ment of Trump as Presi- and suggestions for the dent of the United States continued relevance of the and the decision to leave system. the EU by the British elec- Mr Evan Rogerson is a torate. By referring to his Mr Evan Rogerson explaining the multilateral trading system. former member of the many years working within ise their potential influ- Mr Rogerson emphasised World Trade Organisation the World Trade Organisa- ence, there is still hope. that small economies can- (WTO) secretariat up to tion, Mr Rogerson believes Mr Rogerson points to the not do it alone however. March 2017, holding vari- smaller and medium sized Asia-Pacific region as an They can continue to push ous senior positions over nations are key to keeping example of positive pro- multilateral and plurilateral the span of 20 years. Most the momentum going for gression in this area, with attempts at dialogue and recently he was the Direc- global institutions as larger many of the smaller econ- negotiations, maintaining tor of the Agriculture and powers begin to reject the omies working together to their commitment for when Commodities Division at responsibility that comes keep Transpacific Partner- the bigger powers become the WTO. These many from leading. ship (TPP) alive after the more reliable partners years of experience gives If smaller economies com- US left. once more.■ him a key insight into the bined efficiently to maxim- processes of the multilat-

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Issue 26| January 2018

Pursuing Inclusive Trade in the Multilateral Trading System

Participants of the “11th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC11) for Senior Trade Officials from the Asia-Pacific Region”

“The Preparatory Work- overfishing. Moreover, Professor and Deputy could be addressed if shop for the 11th WTO Rogerson also argued that Head of Centre for Multi- there are more efforts in Ministerial Conference it is WTO’s obligation to lateralism Studies (CMS) reducing trade costs and (MC11) for Senior Trade increase its relevance, at RSIS, explained that increasing transparency. Officials from the Asia Pa- especially on how the mul- global trade is facing chal- MSMEs’ participation in cific Region” was held in tilateral trading system lenges to address the digi- international trade must be Singapore on 5 and 6 Oc- could contribute signifi- tal divide between devel- strengthened, especially tober. The workshop was cantly to creating jobs. oping and developed when considering that organised by the Centre countries. She said that it Underscoring the im- these enterprises play an for Multilateralism Studies is an issue that needs to portance of the multilateral important role in the global (CMS) from the S. Raja- work so most countries trading system, Peter Go- economy. MSMEs repre- ratnam School of Interna- could effectively engage in vindasamy, Director of sent 95 percent of compa- tional Studies (RSIS), Min- digital trade. Dr Pitakdum- International Trade Cluster nies globally and 60 to 70 istry of Trade and Industry rongkit also asserted that at Ministry of Trade and percent of global GDP. (MTI), Singapore Cooper- it is important to further Industry (MTI) in Singa- Interestingly, there are ation Programme, and strengthen the transparen- pore, said that there is no some steps to be under- WTO. cy and rules that govern taken to strengthen alternative to the WTO the trade system. The discussions covered MSMEs’ foothold in inter- because presently it the issues related to the The participation of micro, national trade. For exam- serves as an enabler to multilateral trading system small and medium-sized ple, there is a Work Pro- reduce trade tariffs and with emphasis on how enterprises (MSMEs) in gramme being developed also a stabilising force to trade will become inclusive international trade must be this year for the coming settle trade disputes. He for WTO members. Ac- improved, said Emmanu- Ministerial Conference, also added there is no cording to Evan Rogerson, elle Ganne of Economic which focuses on improv- room to be complacent on Distinguished Visiting Fel- Research and Statistics ing the MSMEs’ trade par- trade issues such as non- low of RSIS and former Division at WTO Secretari- ticipation. Within the pro- tariff barriers and implica- Director of Agriculture and at. She said that MSMEs’ gramme, there are ideas tions of climate change in Commodities Division at participation in the interna- to improve MSMEs’ partic- WTO’s policy measures. WTO, it is essential to re- tional trade is impeded by ipation in e-trading activi- Govindasamy explained inforce the trading system lack of knowledge about ties and their access to that carbon taxes and re- by means of having con- international markets, lim- finance.■ newable energy subsidies crete actions in strength- ited digital connectivity could create complications ening the disciplines on among developing econo- in the multilateral trading fisheries subsidies, includ- mies, and high trade- system. ing the prohibition of cer- related costs (e.g. logistics tain subsidies that could Meanwhile, Dr Kaewkamol and transportation). How- lead to overcapacity and Pitakdumrongkit, Assistant ever, the said hurdles

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Issue 26| January 2018 Building a Culture Compliance towards a Stronger Rules-Based ASEAN

On 1-2 November, the tions, collaborated togeth- the real challenge of a instruments, ASEAN-US “Consultation on a Rules- er to share their views on rules-based ASEAN is Technical Consultant Faith Based ASEAN: Legal In- how to strengthen a rules- how to ensure the compli- Delos Reyes said. Howev- struments and their Imple- based ASEAN. RSIS Ex- ance of the member states er, the challenge still re- mentation” was held at ecutive Deputy Chairman in implementing the legal mains on how to promote Grand Copthorne Water- Ambassador Ong Keng instruments. a culture of compliance front Hotel in Singapore. It Yong explained that a among ASEAN member Interestingly, it is impres- was organised by Centre rules-based approach states. sive to note that ASEAN for Multilateralism Studies must be supported by Secretariat is currently According to Delos Reyes, (CMS) of S. Rajaratnam ASEAN member states working to develop a prac- there is a need for social- School of International because it helps to organ- tical reporting system on ising the rules-based prin- Studies (RSIS), together ise our behaviour and al- the implementation of ciples by means of the with USAID, German Co- lows us for greater coordi- ASEAN instruments. The diffusion of rules that operation, GIZ, and the nation in identifying the proposed reporting system would take place in aca- ASEAN Secretariat. dos and don’ts. Mean- covers the legal instru- demic institutions, judici- while, ASEAN Deputy Several experts, including ments and tasks assigned ary, and civil society. RSIS Secretary-General AKP those from academia and desk officers to monitor Professor and CMS Head Mochtan explained that international organisa- the implementation of the Ralf Emmers further ex- plained that academic in- stitutions must be involved in the diffusion of the prin- ciples and rules, and law- yers should be contribute by helping to interpret the ASEAN rules and norms. Further diversifying the discussion, RSIS Associ- ate Professor Alan Chong recommended setting up an ASEAN Permanent Committee (APC) on AEC rules to monitor the imple- mentation of a rules-based ASEAN Community is a good place to begin the Professor Ralf Emmers, CMS, presenting at the ‘Consultation on a Rules-Based ASEAN: Legal Instru- culture and practice of ments and their Implementation. making and complying with rules.■ International Security in the Asia-Pacific: Alan Chong

On 8 November 2017, The book provides a com- ASEAN Centrality, human RSIS organised a book prehensive discussion security threats, defence launch seminar on about international securi- diplomacy, international “International Security in ty of the Asia-Pacific, security, and security co- the Asia-Pacific: Trans- which ranges approxi- operation. cending ASEAN towards mately from the end of the Topics discussed in the Transitional Polycentrism” global Cold War up to cur- book are policy-relevant at the Institute on Asian rent issues of the twenty- because the idea behind Consumer Insight (ACI), first century. The chapters this edited volume was Nanyang Technological of the book are contributed developed from a two-day University (NTU). The by ‘academic-cum- seminar co-organised by book was edited by Asso- practitioners’ whose ex- the Goh Keng Swee Com- ciate Professor Alan pertise revolve around mand and Staff College in Chong of Centre for Multi- several aspects of security Singapore, with SAF-NTU lateral Studies, RSIS. in the region such as and RSIS.■

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Issue 26| January 2018

Jumpstarting South Asia: Pradumna B. Rana and Wai-Mun Chia

“Jumpstarting South Asia: nomic reforms and makes and services within their Revisiting Economic Re- the case for a two-pronged region. forms and Look East Poli- strategy to jumpstart South cies.”, a book looking at Asian economies. First, The book argues that the how to boost the South South Asian countries proposed strategy will lead Asian economies which should complete the eco- to a win-win situation for all have such great potential . nomic reform process that countries in South Asia they had begun and imple- and East Asia, and will The book discusses that ment the more microeco- also reinvigorate economic economic reforms imple- nomic reforms, namely, the integration within South mented by the South Asian sectoral, and governance Asia, which is one of the countries in the 1980s and and institutional reforms to least integrated regions of 1990s had positive impacts enhance competition and the world. It also identifies on growth, and the region's improve the operation of the unfinished policy re- share of world GDP had markets. Second, they form agenda for each started to increase. But, should implement the sec- South Asian country and Pradumna Rana, Associ- more recently, economic ond round of 'Look East' the components of the ate Professor of RSIS, growth in South Asia has policies or LEP2 to (i) link LEP2 that they should im- and Wai-Mun Chia, Asso- softened somewhat due to themselves to production plement.■ ciate Professor at the a number of reasons. networks in East Asia, their School of Humanities and fastest growing markets, The book also focuses on Social Sciences of NTU, and (ii) develop production the slowing pace of eco- recently authored networks in manufacturing

SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Trump in Asia: Free Trump’s Asia Trip: In- Trump and Southeast Time for ASEAN’s own Trade Under Threat? consistent US Foreign Asia: Portents of Trans- brand product in manu- Aédán Mordecai, Policy? actional Diplomacy facturing? RSIS Commentaries Chia-yi Lee, Su-Hyun Lee, Alan Chong, Phidel Vineles, 29 November 2017 RSIS Commentaries RSIS Commentaries Today Op-Ed 16 November 2017 02 November 2017 11 October 2017 TPP’s Resurrection: Will It Be Finally Ratified? Trump and Southeast ASEAN minus X: Should New Zealand’s Election: Pradumna Rana, Ji Asia: Opportunity to Bol- This Formula Be Extend- Will There Be an Upset? Xianbai, ster US-ASEAN Econom- ed? Evan Rogerson, RSIS Commentaries ic Ties Ralf Emmers, RSIS Commentaries 17 November 2017 Kaewkamol Pitakdumrong- RSIS Commentaries 06 October 2017 kit, 24 October 2017 RSIS Commentaries 08 November 2017

The Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) is a research entity Multilateral Matters is the quarterly publication of the Centre within the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nan- for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), analysing the most recent devel- yang Technological University, Singapore. The CMS team con- opments regarding multilateralism by our team. It covers articles ducts cutting-edge research, teaching/training and networking on on relevant economic and political issues as well as programmes and latest publications from the research centre. The objective of cooperative multilateralism in the Asia Pacific region. The Centre the newsletter is to promote the research being done by our cen- aims to contribute to international academic and public discourses tre, raising awareness of the many events that we hold on a regu- on regional architecture and order in the Asia Pacific. It aspires to lar basis. be an international knowledge hub for multilateral cooperation and regional integration.

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