Issue 26| January 2018 www.rsis.edu.sg/research/cms/ Issue 26 | January 2018 Trump in Asia: Free Trade Under Threat? Page 2-3 ———————— From Commitment to Compliance: ASEAN Is Free Trade in Human Rights’ Re- gression? Page 4 Stepping Up: How Smaller Economies Trouble in Can Help to Keep Multilateralism Alive Page 4 ———————— Asia ? Pursuing Inclusive Trade in the Multilat- eral Trading System Page 5 ———————— Building a Culture of Compliance Through a Stronger Rules- Based ASEAN Page 6 International Security in the Asia-Pacific: Alan Chong Page 6 ———————— Jumpstarting South Asia: Pradumna Rana & Wai-Mun Chia Page 7 Editorial Team Aédán Mordecai President Donald J. Trump departs China , courtesy of The White House Official Flickr Account, photo by Phidel Vineles Shealah Craighead. Page 1 Issue 26| January 2018 FEATURED COMMENTARY Trump in Asia: Free Trade Under Threat? By Aédán Mordecai President Donald Trump and ASEAN Leaders. Courtesy of the Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead. ‘America First’ has been dominated by the North consistent trade deficits ness of this perspective, the prevailing tagline guid- Korea and South China that America had with especially in the age of ing Trump’s trade policy. Sea situations. Economic many major economies. production networks that As he returns from his re- observers will have been span multiple countries, Coming under particular cent extended tour of Asia, watching his words care- meaning the fluid move- scrutiny were multilateral what is the outlook for US- fully, looking for clues as to ment of components is trade deals. NAFTA was Asia trade? which way his future trade crucial for many industries. labelled the ‘worst trade policy towards Asia might Trump’s mercantilist-like Commentary deal ever made’ and the be headed and whether views on trade ignore the proposed Trans-Pacific PRESIDENT TRUMP’s there is reason to worry. nuances of trade and mu- Partnership (TPP) was visit to Asia on one of his tual benefits, in favour of Trump’s Protectionist constantly ridiculed, with longest foreign tours to an alternative zero-sum Tendencies one of Trump’s first official date, as leader of the game reality. acts in office being the world’s largest economy, The worries regarding formal withdrawal from the No Drastic Moves on went relatively quietly. The trade and potential protec- TPP. Trade? five-country visit which tionism all stem from last began in Japan and ended year’s presidential cam- Understanding Trump’s Since his inauguration and in the Philippines included paign in the United States. perception of trade is key the withdrawal from the some important events Trump rode into the presi- to making sense of his TPP there have not been such as the Asia-Pacific dency thanks in part to a priorities. His administra- any drastic moves regard- Economic Cooperation wave of populist anti- tion has cultivated an im- ing trade, but tension still (APEC) Summit in globalist sentiment, with age of a global system that exists. Peter Navarro, who Danang, Vietnam as well trade deficits continually contains clear winners and was made head of the as the ASEAN Summit in on the agenda. China losers, painting deficits as White House Office of Manila, Philippines. faced the worst accusa- ‘bad’ and surpluses as Trade and Manufacturing tions but the overall narra- ‘good’. Policy, is a notoriously an- Whilst trade issues were tive was that America had ti-China economist when it high on his lists of priori- Many economists would made bad deals in the past comes to trade, and many ties, the tour was arguably disagree with the absolute- and this was proven by the Continued on Page 3 Page 2 Issue 26| January 2018 will be wondering how the two countries ‘was not much influence he has over fair and isn’t open’, sug- the White House’s policies. gesting Japan should man- What is APEC? ufacture more of its cars in The WTO has also been The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is a regional eco- the US, seemingly oblivious targeted by the Trump ad- nomic forum established in 1989. It is consist of 21 member coun- to the fact that the majority ministration by blocking the tries , which all aim to promote balanced, inclusive, sustainable, inno- of Japanese branded cars vative, and secure growth through regional economic integration. It appointment of judges sold in the US are also pro- also helps member countries to facilitate trade through faster customs needed for the organisa- duced there. procedures as well as to have more favourable business climates tion’s much admired Dis- through alignment of regulations across the region. pute Settlement Body as In China he described the well as failing to nominate a current trade relationship as permanent representative very ‘one sided’ but used to the WTO. Trump has this point to attack the pre- consistently been disparag- vious administration’s imposing a tariff on prod- his presidency so far. ing of the multilateral insti- weakness and exonerating ucts from another country, tution, insisting the US los- China of any blame stating, Considering he has created and given Trump’s inability es ‘almost of the lawsuits’, ‘Who can blame a country a narrative that deficits to work successfully with despite the reality being for taking advantage of an- equate to a bad trade rela- Congress and the pro-free entirely different. other country for the benefit tionship, he will be judged trade nature of the Republi- of its citizens?’. by this measure and will Meanwhile, in April a com- can Party, this seems un- come under increasing prehensive review of all Then came the APEC Sum- likely. pressure if the trade num- trade relations was ordered mit in Da Nang, which gave He has other options, how- bers, particularly with many by the White House, coun- a platform for Trump to ever, which can be carried Asian economies, do not try by country and product state he was pursuing ‘fair out unilaterally, through significantly swing the other by product. All the signs trade’, a similar message rarely-used legislation or way. seem to suggest protection- that had been communicat- creative taxes indirectly ist moves will follow, and ed at G20 earlier this year. The tour of Asia seemed to targeting imports. The most will be applied bilaterally, The emphasis on ‘fair trade’ be setting the scene for a likely target in the near fu- bypassing the multilateral as opposed to ‘free trade’ is different approach to trade ture would be steel coming system. pertinent as the US admin- and preemptively justifying from China, as it could be istration tries to change the protectionist measures. The Though the trip to Asia did carried out via executive narrative making room for worry for Asia, and espe- not produce any shocks in orders. This is despite the protectionist based policies cially ASEAN, is if this will terms of trade, as the presi- fact that imports of Chinese in the future. lead to a chain reaction of dent’s tweets aimed at the steel have already been protectionism, or will remain Kim Jong Un regime some- Should Asia Be Worried? significantly reduced, an isolated incident. ■ what overshadowed the thanks to previous anti- If protectionist measures tour, he largely stuck to his dumping measures. are taken by the US, it is script. However, there were important to consider what Predictability has not been Aédán Mordecai is a Senior indications of Trump’s shape they will take and the a hallmark of the Trump Analyst with the Centre for ‘America First’ trade policy. process. Constitutionally, administration so it is diffi- Multilateralism Studies While in Japan, Trump de- Congress has to approve cult to know what exactly (CMS) at the S. Rajaratnam clared that trade between the future holds. However it School of International would be overly optimistic Studies (RSIS), Nanyang to think that Trump would Technological University, last the rest of his term Singapore. without making a move on trade, as it would be hugely popular with his base. George W. Bush set a prec- edent here by putting tariffs up to 30 percent on all steel imports in 2002, to placate the ‘rust belt’ states despite international protests. Play- ing to Trump’s base, partic- ularly during moments of Australian Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull takes a selfie with fellow heavy pressure, is probably Asia Pacific Leaders as part of APEC, Photo courtesy of the US Em- the most predictable trait of bassy Canberra Page 3 Issue 26| January 2018 From Commitment to Compliance: ASEAN’s Human Rights Regression? On 12 October, the Centre regression?’, as part of the Prof Collins explained the Prof Collins’ research fo- for Multilateralism Studies RSIS Seminar Series on Spiral Model and how cused on identifying the (CMS) hosted Professor Multilateralism Studies. ASEAN fits into it. The obstacles that exist in Alan Collins from Prof Collins has published Spiral Model is a theoreti- ASEAN’s pursuit of suc- Swansea University, Unit- extensively on ASEAN cal model in political sci- cessfully becoming com- ed Kingdom as he gave a and the role of civil society ence that attempts to ex- pliant with legal human seminar on ‘From commit- in the region as well as the plain the steps a nation- rights standards. The re- ment to compliance: security community in state goes through to gression of democracy in ASEAN's human rights Southeast Asia. change their norms re- the region has also argua- garding human rights and bly led to a regression in eventually becoming com- the level of human rights pliant with international in the region. According to standards. Prof Collins Prof Collins’ research argues that majority of study, ASEAN’s move- ASEAN nations and ment cannot be described ASEAN as a whole, are as being in a single direc- displaying a commitment tion of improvement.