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2016 Analysis and Reconstruction of Hurricane Allen, 1980 Catherine L. Stauffer, Michael Kozar and Mark Powell

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Abstract Flight and Wind Analysis Hwind Analysis CFSR Reanalysis CFSR and Hwind Difference

An objective analysis of Hurricane Allen was created to observe the evolution of the wind field throughout the duration of the storm. Observations were imported from The Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which were collected by Hurricane Hunter aircraft, buoys, and METAR. These 48,000 wind observations were sorted and analyzed to create a storm track and evaluate the storm structure and size of the damaging wind fields of Hurricane Allen. The HWind analysis is then compared to national reanalysis models to further understand the impact of the storm. Allen made landfall on the Texas-Mexico border as a category 3 hurricane, but not before it underwent multiple eyewall replacement cycles causing Allen to hit category 5 status on three separate occasions.

Method

 Wind data was imported from the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA where it was converted from table data to the format suitable for the application used for the analyses  At least 48000 data points were analyzed in Earth relative mode to create a track of the hurricane. The track and data points were then put in storm relative mode to create an HWind analysis of the hurricane at the particular moment in time  Once the analysis product was imported into Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) software to create a smooth graphic for further analysis using functions of the program  The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data was imported from NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction into GrADS to be compared to the HWind analyses

Conclusion  These analyses of Hurricane Allen are the first of its kind. Any former work has been focused on the study of radar data or radial wind field passes, but not on creating a picture of the entire wind field. These analyses can aid in further academic study such as the interaction of hurricanes with the ocean and how the ocean affects the cyclone’s intensity.  Hurricane Allen had a significant impact on not only Texas but Mexico, Puerto Rico, and other Caribbean Islands. It was one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in history during its time outside the Yucatan Peninsula, with a total cost in damage of $1.24 billion (1980 USD). Today that is $3.82 billion USD. Until Hurricane Patricia (2015), it was the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic by wind speed with sustained winds up to 190mph.  These can be used to study Gulf based hurricanes as well including the path tropical cyclones may take and what environmental factors can cause changes to the intensity.  This also has insurance and risk management application. These companies can use this analysis to study how a hurricane of this magnitude would affect today’s infrastructure by relating wind speeds to damage to estimate returns and losses. It can calibrate industry models because the HWind analysis is based off of actual data rather than simulations like the national models.

References and Acknowledgements  Ho F.P. and Miller J.F. 1983: Pertinent meteorological data for Hurricane Allen of 1980. NOAA Technical Report NWS 35, 11.  Powell M.D., et al, 1998: The HRD real-time hurricane wind analysis system. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics.  Willoughby H. E., et al, 1982: Concentric eye walls, secondary wind maxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 395—411.  GrADs code modeled and courtesy of Michael Kozar, PhD. CFSR data import code courtesy of Chana Seitz, PhD.