Studio Dragon(253450)
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Studio Dragon (253450) Growth momentum remains intact • Studio Dragon reported 4Q operating profit of KRW4.6b, turning to profit y-y but missing consensus due to: 1) additional production cost to Sweet Home; and 2) the year-end bonus payment. Sales topped consensus. • The firm should produce 30 dramas this year, at least nine of which should be provided to domestic and global OTT platforms. • Its growth momentum should gain ground, supported by its: 1) diversification of sales channels, formats and genres; and 2) collaboration with multinational players. WHAT’S THE STORY? 4Q review: Studio Dragon reported 4Q sales of KRW137.7b (up 41.3% y-y) and operating profit of KRW4.6b (a y-y turn from an operating loss of KRW4b in 4Q19), the former topping and the latter missing consensus. Programing sales contracted y-y as the number of dramas produced was 1.5 less than its average, but distribution sales hit a record based on sales of The Uncanny Counter (that received good feedback), Netflix original Sweet Home, and old title sales. Nonetheless, operating profit was a bit disappointing due to: 1) additional investment during the post-production stage of Sweet Home to improve content quality; and 2) the year-end bonus payment. Global conference adds to bargaining power: The company should produce 30 dramas this year (up three y-y), at least nine of which should be provided to OTT platforms-three, each, to Tving (Korea; including Yumi's Cells), Netflix (US; g Juvenile Judgment and Love Alarm Season II), and iQIYI (China; A Falling Cohabitation). With more and more digital platforms in operation, Studio Dragon should supply more dramas to OTT platforms and diversify genres and formats. Its margin from Sweet Home turned out lower than expected as it spent more during the post- production stage of Sweet Home to improve quality. However, the margin of this drama should not be a benchmark for the dramas it will produce. Rather, thanks to the good reference from global audiences to its quality content, Studio Dragon is likely to enjoy favorable contract terms given its growing bargaining power. (Continued on the next page) 2021. 2. 5 COMPANY UPDATE Studio Dragon Maintaining BUY: The firm's earnings moved up a level last year and we believe its growth story will be endless. With the battle for content heating up among global OTT players, it is diversifying sales channels, content formats (from long- to mid-form content), and genres. Its international renown should pave the way for ASP hikes. The company is in talks with global production firms (eg, Skydance) to make ten dramas for now. The new growth opportunity should enable the firm to gain more global presence. We maintain our KRW124,000 target price (based on16x forward EV/EBITDA). Table 1. Results and forecasts (KRWb) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21E 2Q21E 3Q21E 4Q21E 2019 2020 2021E 2022E Sales 111.8 128.2 131.2 97.4 120.3 161.4 106.3 137.7 125.0 160.3 153.2 149.3 468.7 525.7 587.8 649.4 Programing 44.1 58.1 60.8 45.7 45.2 65.4 45.7 40.7 45.6 53.0 50.1 46.9 208.7 197.0 195.5 204.6 Distribution 56.2 60.3 60.0 42.8 66.9 75.7 50.9 86.3 70.4 90.0 88.9 87.7 219.3 279.7 337.0 386.0 Other 11.5 9.8 10.4 8.9 8.2 20.3 9.7 10.7 9.0 17.3 14.2 14.7 40.6 48.9 55.3 58.9 Gross profit 15.0 15.4 15.3 2.2 16.7 21.8 21.3 15.0 18.7 24.8 26.3 27.0 47.9 74.8 96.9 117.2 SG&A costs 4.0 4.6 4.4 6.2 5.1 4.9 5.3 10.4 5.5 5.6 5.9 11.2 19.2 25.7 28.1 30.3 Operating profit 11.0 10.8 10.9 -4.0 11.6 16.9 16.0 4.6 13.3 19.2 20.4 15.9 28.7 49.1 68.8 86.9 Non-operating profit 2.1 1.1 2.2 -1.1 0.4 0.3 -0.8 -7.5 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 4.3 -7.6 3.4 4.4 Pre-tax profit 13.2 11.9 13.1 -5.1 12.0 17.2 15.2 -2.9 14.4 19.7 21.4 16.6 33.1 41.5 72.1 91.2 Net profit (controlling) 9.2 7.3 11.5 -1.6 8.5 13.4 10.6 -2.8 11.4 15.6 16.9 13.1 26.4 29.7 57.0 72.1 Gross margin 13.4 12.0 11.7 2.2 13.8 13.5 20.0 10.9 15.0 15.5 17.2 18.1 10.2 14.2 16.5 18.0 Operating margin 9.9 8.4 8.3 -4.1 9.7 10.4 15.1 3.3 10.6 12.0 13.3 10.6 6.1 9.3 11.7 13.4 Net margin (controlling) 8.2 5.7 8.8 -1.7 7.1 8.3 10.0 -2.1 9.1 9.7 11.0 8.8 5.6 5.6 9.7 11.1 Chg (% y-y) Sales 40.0 72.6 6.0 -4.2 7.6 25.9 -19.0 41.3 3.9 -0.7 44.2 8.4 23.5 12.2 11.8 10.5 Programing 8.4 70.5 24.4 -16.1 2.5 12.6 -24.9 -10.9 0.8 -18.9 9.7 15.1 17.2 -5.6 -0.7 4.7 Distribution 75.1 109.2 -5.4 13.3 19.1 25.5 -15.2 101.6 5.2 19.0 74.7 1.7 35.3 27.6 20.5 14.5 Other 63.1 -14.1 -9.0 -6.7 -29.2 107.1 -6.4 20.2 10.6 -15.0 46.7 37.7 3.0 20.4 13.1 6.5 Gross profit 9.9 45.1 -38.4 -66.2 11.1 41.7 39.2 585.3 12.5 13.7 23.7 80.2 -13.8 56.2 29.6 20.9 SG&A costs 33.1 40.2 31.0 2.7 28.4 5.8 21.3 67.6 6.9 14.6 11.5 7.4 22.4 34.0 9.5 7.8 Turned Turned Operating profit 3.5 47.3 -49.2 5.5 56.3 46.8 14.2 14.0 27.3 244.4 -28.1 71.1 40.0 26.3 neg pos Turned Turned Remained To turn To turn Turned To turn Non-operating profit 1,160.7 -71.7 290.9 -79.7 -69.4 157.8 50.2 -24.3 30.3 neg neg neg pos pos neg pos Turned Remained To turn Pre-tax profit 22.2 7.6 -40.8 -9.2 44.5 16.2 19.9 14.7 40.8 -27.5 25.4 73.6 26.5 neg neg pos Turned Remained To turn Net profit (controlling) 17.2 -17.4 -33.5 -7.3 82.1 -8.0 33.1 16.5 59.5 -26.3 12.3 92.1 26.5 neg neg pos Gross margin -3.7 -2.3 -8.4 -4.1 0.4 1.5 8.4 8.7 1.1 2.0 -2.8 7.2 -4.4 4.0 2.3 1.6 Operating margin -3.5 -1.4 -9.0 -4.6 -0.2 2.0 6.8 7.5 1.0 1.5 -1.8 7.3 -4.4 3.2 2.4 1.7 Net margin (controlling) -1.6 -6.2 -5.2 -3.4 -1.1 2.6 1.2 -0.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 10.9 -3.8 0.0 4.1 1.4 Source: Company data, Samsung Securities Samsung Securities (Korea) 2 www.samsungpop.com 2021. 2. 5 COMPANY UPDATE Studio Dragon Chart 1. Quarterly sales and operating margin Chart 2. Sales: Domestic and overseas (KRWb) (%) (KRWb) (%) Sales (LHS) Operating margin (RHS) Domestic (LHS) Overseas (LHS) 200 20 100 90 15.1 Overseas portion (RHS) 13.3 12.0 16 80 85 160 10.6 9.9 9.7 10.4 10.6 12 84.0 8.4 8.3 82.8 83.8 83.0 82.8 80 120 60 8 79.6 3.3 78.9 78.5 75 80 4 40 75.9 73.1 74.1 70 -4.1 0 40 20 70.0 (4) 65 0 (8) 0 60 1Q19 1Q19 2Q19 1Q20 3Q19 2Q19 1Q20 3Q19 4Q19 4Q19 2Q20 3Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 4Q20 1Q21E 1Q21E 2Q21E 3Q21E 2Q21E 3Q21E 4Q21E 4Q21E Source: Company data, Samsung Securities Source: Company data, Samsung Securities Chart 3. Quarterly gross margin and SG&A costs-to-sales ratio Chart 4. Annual gross margin and SG&A costs-to-sales ratio (%) 97.8 (%) (%) (%) 100 86.6 88.0 88.3 86.2 86.5 89.1 85.0 15 100 89.8 85.8 15 80.0 84.5 82.8 81.9 83.6 85.4 83.5 82.0 80 12 80 12 7.6 7.5 60 6.4 9 60 9 5.0 4.2 4.4 3.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 40 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.0 3.5 6 40 4.1 4.1 6 20 3 20 3 0 0 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 1Q19 2Q19 1Q20 3Q19 4Q19 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21E 2Q21E 3Q21E 4Q21E Gross margin (LHS) Gross margin (LHS) SG&A cost-to-sales ratio (RHS) SG&A cost-to-sales ratio (RHS) Source: Company data, Samsung Securities Source: Company data, Samsung Securities Samsung Securities (Korea) 3 www.samsungpop.com 2021.