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Bluestar Israel Equity Review & Outlook

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Bluestar Israel Equity Review & Outlook ® BlueStar Israel Equity Review & Outlook January/February 2016 The BlueStar Indexes® Monthly Update covers Israeli equities traded worldwide. The BlueStar Israel Global Index® (BIGI® or BLS:IND on Bloomberg) is used as the benchmark for our review as it represents the complete opportunity set of Israeli equities. BIGI® is tracked by the NYSE-listed ISRA Israel ETF and by two TASE-listed ETNs. Israel has one of the world’s most resilient economies, its technology sector is a global innovation leader, and its companies have a global footprint. The Update provides insight into macro forces, the geopolitical environment in which Israel’s economy operates, and the individual company investment opportunities that have contributed to Israeli Global Equities’ impressive long-term performance. “Don’t Try to Catch a Falling Knife” February 5, 2016 Israeli Global Equities, as measured by BIGI®, continued to their recent swoon in January, falling by 7.21%. This marked the end of Israeli markets’ long stretch of outperformance as U.S. and Emerging Markets, fared better, “only” declining 5.07% and 5.03%, respectively. Earnings season for Q4-2015 kicked off in the last week of January with a mixed bag of results, highlighting the difficult operating conditions faced by many companies. The challenges noted by companies included the strong Israeli shekel and slowing demand in key export markets in Asia and Europe. We expect the currency to continue its recent weakness which should aid exporters, but we remain concerned over muted demand growth for Israeli companies which will, in turn, result in very low earnings growth in the first half of 2016. (Commentary continued on following page.) BlueStar Israel Global Index ® Global Equity Benchmark Comparison: Relative Performance Since 2010 January 2016 200 180 Benchmark Period Return 160 BIGI® -7.21% 140 TA-100 MSCI Israel -6.34% 120 S&P 500 BIGI 100 TA-100 -5.00% EIS 80 S&P 500 -5.07% 60 MSCI EAFE -5.52% MSCI EM -5.03% TASE-BlueStar Israel Global Technology Index® Global Technology Stock Index Comparison: Relative Performance Since 2010 January 2016 275 255 Benchmark Period Return 235 215 ® 195 BIGITech -10.79% 175 BIGITech Nasdaq-100 -6.84% 155 135 NQ-100 S&P Global Tech -5.17% 115 95 TA- BlueTech -7.72% Global Tech 75 (IXN) EM Internet & E-commerce -11.82% © 2016 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a 1 recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing. BlueStar Israel Equity Review & Outlook January/February 2016 The natural gas sector was one bright spot in January as Noble Energy, the leader of the consortium developing the largest of Israel’s gas fields reiterated its commitment to the project and said the first gas from the Leviathan field would begin to flow by 2019. The consortium signed a $1.3 billion mutli-year offtake agreement with a domestic private energy company, further solidifying the project’s outlook. The Bank of Israel (BoI) again left interest rates unchanged at 0.10% for February. We do not expect the Bof to begin raising rates until late 2016 at the earliest, and even this may be delayed if the U.S. Federal Reserve pauses its planned series of rate hikes due to a worsening global economy and slowing U.S. economic growth. BlueStar Bottom Line: Despite relatively robust GDP growth, Israeli equities face significant headwinds for the first half of the year, primarily from exogenous factors such as the uncertain prospects for economic growth in the country’s key export markets of the U.S., Europe, and of course China. Uncertainty on this front, combined with our technical analysis and global stock market volatility, makes us cautious to slightly bearish on Israeli Global Equities for at least the first half of the year. Israeli Equity Sector Contribution Top Israeli Equity Gainers and Losers: January 2016 to BIGI® Performance: January 2016 Contribution to Top-performing Israeli Stocks Worst-performing Israeli Stocks GICS BIGI® Return Audiocodes 10.77% Chiasma, Inc. -47.37% Telecom Services -0.02% Mellanox Technologies 7.85% Attunity -43.53% Utilities -0.03% Africa Israel Properties 6.80% Medgenics -40.20% Consumer Staples -0.07% Oil Refineries 6.03% Mobileye -35.83% Consumer Disc. -0.10% Blue Square Real Estate 5.17% Perion Network -32.51% Materials -0.11% Kornit Digital 4.85% Delek US Holdings -30.81% Industrials -0.18% Cellcom Israel 4.62% Stratasys -30.58% Energy -0.61% Nice Systems 4.59% Compugen -26.29% Financials -1.08% Delek Automotive 4.23% Xlmedia -25.90% Health Care -2.10% Ceragon Networks 4.13% Redhill Biopharma -23.76% Info Tech -2.92% Source: BlueStar Global Investors LLC; Currency-Adjusted returns in dollar terms © 2016 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC 2 The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing. Market Trends & Technical Analysis: BIGI® Strong Resistance Area Strong Support Area The December 2015 breach of the orange parallel trend lines connecting the 2009 and 2012/2013 lows was a harbinger of a decisive break of key long-term support levels. BIGI® ended January 2016 at 245, within the next level of support between 240-250, marking a break in a seven-year uptrend. This level now represents an area of support from which the index could move higher over the next several months. This level is the area from which BIGI broke out to the upside to reach two all-time highs in 2014 and early 2015 – a period of strong outperformance of Israeli equities compared to global equities. The trend lines on the shorter-term chart below also suggest that the index has reached an important area of support. If the 240-250 level is breached, though, the index could quickly drop by several percentage points and the next support levels would be around 230 (-6%) and then between 195-215 (-15%). If the index does rally from these levels it will be important to observe if it can break back above and hold the neckline coupled with positive trends in the moving averages. Presently though, we believe that a test of the neckline and the underside of the double parallel trend lines on the longer-term chart will prove to be a major resistance area. Strong Resistance Area Resistance Area Strong Support Area © 2016 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a 3 recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing. Market Trends & Technical Analysis: BIGI® The 200-day moving average is now clearly downward sloping which is generally a bearish signal. In the very short-term however, as the distance between the 50-day and 200-day moving average increases, the index will enter into oversold territory indicating that a relief rally to test the 50-day moving average is becoming more likely. This chart will remain bearish until the 30-day moving average crosses above the 100-day moving average. We need to see the index break above the 30-day moving average to be more convinced that we are about to see a relief rally or trend reversal. 4 Market Trends & Technical Analysis: BIGITech® Strong Resistance Area Support Area As indicated last month, a break of the horizontal red support lines would indicate that the index will drop to the next support level near 160. This break occurred in January, confirming a primary bearish trend. We view the current index level as being within the support area for TA-BIGITech® and this will remain in place until broken. © 2016 BlueStar Global Investors, LLC 5 The opinions expressed in this report are those of BlueStar Global Investors, LLC and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should consult with a financial professional before investing. Market Trends & Technical Analysis: Israeli Shekel vs U.S. Dollar We believe that given trends in interest rates and the BoI’s stated desire to boost exporters’ competitiveness, that the shekel will have a tendency to weaken vs the USD throughout at least the first half of 2016., if the U.S. Federal Reserve continues with its stated plan to gradually raise interest rates over the course of 2016. We therefore the shekel to remain relatively stable around current levels or trend down toward the $0.24 area. 6 Israel: the Go-To Destination for Global Technology Companies In this monthly feature we highlight the attractiveness of the Israeli technology sector by noting significant recent capital markets and M&A activity which demonstrates that Israel is a key destination for global companies seeking to acquire cutting-edge technologies and that the strength of the sector is increasingly encouraging Israeli companies to make acquisitions abroad. • Israeli flavors and specialty natural ingredients company Frutarom Industries Ltd. (TASE: FRUT; LSE: FRUT) is investing $2.6 million in biotech company Algalo Industries Ltd. Frutarom will receive a 50% stake in the company, based at Kibbutz Ein Hamifratz near Haifa, and the investment will be used to build a biotechnology facility that will specialize in cultivation, harvesting and processing algae using advanced methods. Frutarom will have exclusive worldwide marketing rights for Algalo products. • Israeli converged voice solutions provider AudioCodes Ltd. (Nasdaq: AUDC; TASE: AUDC) acquired Dutch company Active Communications Europe for $3 million, and $2 million more depending on attaining certain goals.
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