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The Art of Thinking Clearly (577H) Sources.Indd
THE ART OF THINKING CLEARLY A NOTE ON SOURCES Hundreds of studies have been conducted on the vast majority of cognitive and behav- ioural errors. In a scholarly work, the complete reference section would easily double the pages of this book. I have focused on the most important quotes, technical refer- ences, recommendations for further reading and comments. The knowledge encompassed in this book is based on the research carried out in the fields of cognitive and social psychology over the past three decades. SURVIVORSHIP BIAS Survivorship bias in funds and stock market indices, see: Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber & Christopher R. Blake, ‘Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance’, The Review of Financial Studies, volume 9, number 4, 1996, 1097–1120. Statistically relevant results by coincidence (self-selection), see: John P. A. Ioan- nidis, ‘Why Most Published Research Findings Are False’, PLoS Med 2(8), 2005, e124. SWIMMER’S BODY ILLUSION Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (New York: Random House, 2007), 109–110. ‘Ideally, the comparison should be made between people who went to Harvard and people who were admitted to Harvard but chose instead to go to Podunk State. Unfortunately, this is likely to produce samples too small for statistical analysis.’ Thomas Sowell, Economic Facts and Fallacies (New York: Basic Books, 2008), 106. David Lykken & Auke Tellegen, ‘Happiness Is a Stochastic Phenomenon’, Psycho- logical Science, Vol.7, No. 3, May 1996, 189. In his book Good to Great, Jim Collins cites the CEO of Pitney Bowes, Dave Nassef: ‘I used to be in the Marines, and the Marines get a lot of credit for building people’s values. -
Our Businesses 237 KB
Strategic Report Operating Business Reviews B2B Summary Outlook Our B2B companies operate in five sectors, namely Insurance Risk, Our B2B companies are collectively expected Property Information, Education Technology (EdTech), Energy Information, to deliver low single-digit underlying revenue Events and Exhibitions. growth in FY 2018, although revenues will be adversely affected by the disposals that have taken place in the past year and the planned disposal of EDR. In the Insurance Risk sector, 2016 RMS will continue to expand the client 2017 Pro formaΩ Movement Underlying^ Total B2B £m £m % % base for the RMS(one) software platform and associated applications, laying the Revenue# 976 899 +9% +2% groundwork for revenue acceleration Operating profit* 152 160 (5)% (15)% in FY 2019 and beyond. In the Property Operating margin* 16% 18% Information sector, the European businesses # Revenue from continuing and discontinued operations. are expected to continue to experience * Adjusted operating profit and operating margin; see pages 29 to 31 for details. relatively subdued market conditions and ^ Underlying growth rates give a like-for-like comparison; see page 31 for details. Ω Pro forma FY 2016 figures have been restated to treat Euromoney as a c.67% owned subsidiary during the first three months the remaining US businesses to continue and as a c.49% owned associate during the nine months to September 2016, consistent with the ownership profile during to deliver growth. Following the disposal FY 2017. See reconciliation on page 28. of Hobsons’ Admissions and Solutions businesses, the remaining EdTech business is expected to benefit from increased focus Euromoney of Group corporate costs, were £152 million, and to continue to deliver growth. -
Facsimile Template
27 July 2017 Daily Mail and General Trust plc (‘DMGT’) Third Quarter Trading Update This trading update covers the third quarter of DMGT’s financial year, the three month period to 30 June 2017. Outlook in line with current market expectations~ • Underlying# revenue in the third quarter in line with last year; pro forma* reported revenues up 7%, including 5% benefit from foreign exchange rates • Underlying# revenue decline of 1% from our B2B businesses • dmg media underlying# revenues up 1%, including strong advertising growth • Net debt increased by £16 million to £567 million, in line with our expectations • Appointment of Tim Collier as Chief Financial Officer on 2 May 2017 • Outlook for the Full Year is unchanged Revenue Growth v Q3 (3 months to June 2017) Year to date (9 months to June 2017) Prior Year Pro Forma* Underlying# Pro Forma* Underlying# reported reported Group revenue +7% +0% +6% +0% B2B +13% -1% +11% +0% RMS +9% -4% +17% +0% dmg information +5% -2% +10% +0% dmg events +76% +3% +13% +3% Euromoney N/A N/A +6% N/A dmg media† +0% +1% -2% +1% * Pro forma reported growth rates are calculated after restating Full Year 2016 revenues, to treat Euromoney as a subsidiary during the first quarter and as an associate during the second and third quarters. Business to Business (B2B) • Underlying# revenue decline of 1% in the quarter and in line with last year for the nine months. • Pro forma* reported revenue growth of 13% in the quarter, including 9% benefit from foreign exchange rates, notably the stronger US dollar; 11% growth for the nine months. -
Heuristics and Biases the Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. In
P1: FYX/FYX P2: FYX/UKS QC: FCH/UKS T1: FCH CB419-Gilovich CB419-Gilovich-FM May 30, 2002 12:3 HEURISTICS AND BIASES The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment Edited by THOMAS GILOVICH Cornell University DALE GRIFFIN Stanford University DANIEL KAHNEMAN Princeton University iii P1: FYX/FYX P2: FYX/UKS QC: FCH/UKS T1: FCH CB419-Gilovich CB419-Gilovich-FM May 30, 2002 12:3 published by the press syndicate of the university of cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom cambridge university press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarcon´ 13, 28014, Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org C Cambridge University Press 2002 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2002 Printed in the United States of America Typeface Palatino 9.75/12.5 pt. System LATEX2ε [TB] A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Heuristics and biases : the psychology of intuitive judgment / edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-521-79260-6 – ISBN 0-521-79679-2 (pbk.) 1. Judgment. 2. Reasoning (Psychology) 3. Critical thinking. I. Gilovich, Thomas. II. Griffin, Dale III. Kahneman, Daniel, 1934– BF447 .H48 2002 153.4 – dc21 2001037860 ISBN 0 521 79260 6 hardback ISBN 0 521 79679 2 paperback iv P1: FYX/FYX P2: FYX/UKS QC: FCH/UKS T1: FCH CB419-Gilovich CB419-Gilovich-FM May 30, 2002 12:3 Contents List of Contributors page xi Preface xv Introduction – Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now 1 Thomas Gilovich and Dale Griffin PART ONE. -
The Great Aviation Graveyard: New Aerial Images Show Hundreds of Planes Left to Die Across the American Deserts | Daily Mail Online
7/23/2015 The great aviation graveyard: New aerial images show hundreds of planes left to die across the American deserts | Daily Mail Online Feedback Like 2.8m Follow @MailOnline DailyMail Thursday, Jul 23rd 2015 8AM 68°F 11AM 78°F 5Day Forecast Home U.K. News Sports U.S. Showbiz Australia Femail Health Science Money Video Travel Columnists Latest Headlines Science Pictures Login YOU MIGHT LIKE Sponsored Links by Taboola A Rising Middle Class: Investment Opportunity? Read Our Report. Prudential The 5 Best Credit Cards with No Interest to Help You Get out of Debt Quicker NextAdvisor See What These Everyday Objects Look Like Cut In Half. Awesome PopFotos 12 Enormous Dogs Who Are Actually Just Big Babies Refinery29 Why Living Life Cooped Up In Your Comfort Zone Is Killing You Elite Daily 20 Photos That Will Make You Want Summer Right This Minute Elite Daily The great aviation graveyard: New aerial images show hundreds of planes left to die across the American deserts Aerial imagery taken from the U.S Navy, U.S Air Force and Google Maps show retired airplane 'boneyards' in Arizona, California and New Mexico The planes are stored in the dry conditions of the desert to stop them rusting in the hope that some may fly again whereas others are used for spare parts Large commercial planes including Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Lockheed and Airbus aircraft are all pictured By VICTORIA WOOLLASTON PUBLISHED: 07:08 EST, 6 June 2013 | UPDATED: 15:58 EST, 6 June 2013 105 View comments Eerie photos have emerged of hundreds of retired aircraft parked in rows and set formations in aviation graveyards across America. -
How Should We Think About Americans' Beliefs About Economic Mobility?
Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 13, No. 3, May 2018, pp. 297–304 How should we think about Americans’ beliefs about economic mobility? Shai Davidai∗ Thomas Gilovich† Abstract Recent evidence suggests that Americans’ beliefs about upward mobility are overly optimistic. Davidai & Gilovich (2015a), Kraus & Tan (2015), and Kraus (2015) all found that people overestimate the likelihood that a person might rise up the economic ladder, and underestimate the likelihood that they might fail to do so. However, using a different methodology, Chambers, Swan and Heesacker (2015) reported that Americans’ beliefs about mobility are much more pessimistic. Swan, Chambers, Heesacker and Nero (2017) provide a much-needed summary of these conflicting findings and question the utility of measuring population-level biases in judgments of inequality and mobility. We value their summary but argue that their conclusion is premature. By focusing on measures that best tap how laypeople naturally think about the distribution of income, we believe that researchers can draw meaningful conclusions about the public’s perceptions of economic mobility. When more ecologically representative measures are used, the consistent finding is that Americans overestimate the extent of upward mobility in the United States. To explain the divergent findings in the literature, we provide evidence that the methods used by Chambers et al. (2015) inadvertently primed participants to think about immobility rather than mobility. Finally, using a novel method to examine beliefs about economic -
Fake News and Misinformation Policy Lab Practicum (Spring 2017)
ST ANFORD Fake News & Misinformation Policy Practicum 2017 PRACTICUM RESEARCFacebookH TEAM: Research Team Jacob Finkel, JD ’19, Steven Jiang,Mufan BS ’17, Luo, PhD ‘22 Mufan Luo, PhD ’22, Rebecca Mears, JD/MPP ’19, Danaë Metaxa-Kakavouli, PhD ’20Camille, Peeples, JD ‘18 Camille Peeples, JD ’18, BrendanArjun Sasso, Shenoy,JD ’19, JD ‘19 Arjun Shenoy, JD ’19, Vincent Sheu, JD/MS ’18 , Nicolás Torres-Echeverry, JSM ’17 Google Research Team INSTRUCTOR AND PROJECTDanaë LEAD MetaxaS: -Kakavouli, PhD ‘20 Nicolás Torres-Echeverry, JSM ‘17 SENATOR RUSS FEINGOLD Edwin A. Heafey, Jr., Visiting Professor of Law Luciana Herman, Ph.D. Twitter Research Team Lecturer in Law Program Director, Law and Policy LabJacob Finkel, JD ‘19 Steven Jiang, BS ‘17 Ashwin Aravind, JD ‘18 Teaching Assistant Rebecca Mears, JD/MPP ‘19 Katie Joseff, MA ‘19 Research Assistant Reddit Research Team October POLICY CLIENT: Brendan Sasso, JD ‘19 Hewlett Foundation MadisonVincent Initiative Sheu, JD/MS ’18 2017 1 Acknowledgements This report reflects the research and analysis of an inter-disciplinary law and graduate student team enrolled in the Stanford Law School Fake News and Misinformation Policy Lab Practicum (Spring 2017). Under the guidance of instructor Senator Russ Feingold, the Edwin A. Heafey Visiting Professor of Law, the practicum surveyed the roles of four major online platforms in the spread of fake news beginning with the 2016 U.S. election. Assisting Senator Feingold in the practicum were Policy Lab Program Director and Lecturer Luciana Herman, Ph.D., and Teaching Assistant Ashwin Aravind, J.D. ’18. Brendan Sasso, J.D. ’19, served as the exceptional lead student editor for the report. -
Daily Mail and General Trust Plc
Daily Mail and General Trust plc Thursday 28th January 2016, 08:00 GMT Q1 Trading Update Stephen Daintith, Finance Director Morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the conference call covering our first quarter trading update. I am Stephen Daintith, DMGT’s Finance Director, and I am joined by Adam Webster, Head of Management Information and Investor Relations. So today’s conference call is a chance to pull together the key dynamics behind our trading over the first quarter of our financial year, to the end of December 2015. As usual, there will be an opportunity at the end of the call for you to ask any questions. So, overall trading over the first three months of our financial year has been in line with our expectations. The revenue and profit outlook for the full year, provided as guidance at our Full Year Results in November, remains unchanged. Group revenues for the period were up by 1% on an underlying basis. Reported revenues were up 5%, mainly due to factors influencing our B2B businesses. Overall, our B2B companies generated 2% underlying revenue growth in the quarter. Our reported B2B revenues, which were up 9%, have benefited from the strengthening US dollar, acquisitions and timing of events over the period. More detail on B2B dynamics to follow. In summary for DMG media, underlying revenues were 2% lower in the first quarter, with declines in circulation and print advertising being partly offset by digital advertising growth. Portfolio management activity has continued in the new financial year, with bolt-on acquisitions, primarily for DMGI, totalling around £20m, and further refinements to the consumer media portfolio. -
The Effect of Traffic-Light Labels and Time Pressure on Estimating
THE EFFECT OF TRAFFIC-LIGHT LABELS AND TIME PRESSURE ON ESTIMATING KILOCALORIES AND CARBON FOOTPRINT OF FOOD Luca A. Panzonea, Falko F Sniehottab, Rob Comberc, Fred Lemked a School of Natural and Environmental Science, Newcastle University (UK); email: [email protected] b Institute for Health and Society, Newcastle University (UK); email: [email protected] c RISE Research Institute (Sweden); email: [email protected] d Vlerick Business School, Ghent University (Belgium). [email protected] Abstract Food consumption decisions require consumers to evaluate the characteristics of products. However, the literature has given limited attention to how consumers determine the impact of food on health (e.g., kilocalories) and on the environment (e.g., carbon footprint). In this exercise, 1,511 consumers categorised 43 food products as healthy/unhealthy and good/bad for the environment, and estimated their kilocalories and carbon footprint, which were known to the investigator. The task was performed either with no stimuli (a control group), under time pressure only, with traffic-light labels only, or both. Results show that traffic-light labels: 1) operate through improvements in knowledge, rather than facilitating information processing under pressure; 2) improve the ability to rank products by both kilocalories and carbon footprint, rather than the ability to use the metric; 3) reduce the threshold used to categorise products as unhealthy/bad for the environment, whilst raising the threshold used to classify products as good for the environment (but not healthy). Notably, traffic-light increase accuracy by reducing the response compression of the metric scale. The benefits of labels are particularly evident for carbon footprint. -
Shakespeare, Middleton, Jonson, and the Idea of News
The Media Players: Shakespeare, Middleton, Jonson, and the Idea of News Stephen Wittek Department of English McGill University, Montreal June 2013 A thesis submitted to McGill University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy © Stephen Wittek 2013 ii Abstract I argue that the early modern theatre made a significant contribution to the development of a new, more complex, idea of news that began to take root in the early seventeenth century. Unlike other means of representing current events, theatrical discourse did not present itself as true—it depended for effect on a knowing disengagement from reality, an implicit awareness that Burbage was not really Richard III and the Globe theatre was not really Bosworth Field. Compounding this formal barrier to reality, dramatists of the period typically approached topical concerns from an oblique angle, or from behind the guise of a sophisticated conceit, thus making the connection to news a matter of imaginative interpretation, or play. Paradoxically, however, such techniques did not fence the theatre off from news culture but in fact made it a unique space where formative thinking about the news could flourish, a space where the concept of news could become manifest from an elucidating distance and could accrue value in an emotionally and intellectually resonant register. Chapter One offers a parallel history of theatre and news and then moves to a discussion of how both forms contributed to a shift in early modern publicity. In the three chapters that follow, this historical and theoretical framework is applied to readings of The Winter’s Tale (Shakespeare), A Game at Chess (Middleton), and The Staple of News (Jonson). -
The Spotlight Effect in Social Judgment: an Egocentric Bias in Estimates of the Salience of One's Own Actions and Appearance
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Copyright 2000 by the Ainerican Psychological Association, Inc. 2000, Vol. 78, No. 2, 211-222 0022-3514100/$5.00 DOI: 10.1037//0022-3514.78.2.211 The Spotlight Effect in Social Judgment: An Egocentric Bias in Estimates of the Salience of One's Own Actions and Appearance Thomas Gilovich Victoria Husted Medvec Cornell University Northwestern University Kenneth Savitsky Williams College This research provides evidence that people overestimate the extent to which their actions and appearance are noted by others, a phenomenon dubbed the spotlight effect. In Studies 1 and 2, participants who were asked to don a T-shirt depicting either a flattering or potentially embarrassing image overestimated the number of observers who would be able to recall what was pictured on the shirt. In Study 3, participants in a group discussion overestimated how prominent their positive and negative utterances were to their fellow discussants. Studies 4 and 5 provide evidence supporting an anchoring-and-adjustment interpre- tation of the spotlight effect. In particular, people appear to anchor on their own rich phenomenological experience and then adjust--insufficiently--to take into account the perspective of others. The discussion focuses on the manifestations and implications of the spotlight effect across a host of everyday social phenomena. Most of us stand out in our own minds. Whether in the midst of view as extraordinary and memorable go unnoticed or underap- a personal triumph or an embarrassing mishap, we are usually preciated by others. The same is true of the actions we wish to quite focused on what is happening to us, its significance to our disown because they reflect poorly on our ability or character. -
BMJ in the News Is a Weekly Digest of Journal Stories, Plus Any Other News
BMJ in the News is a weekly digest of journal stories, plus any other news about the company that has appeared in the national and a selection of English-speaking international media. A total of 22 journals were picked up in the media last week (22-28 June) - our highlights include: ● UK health leaders urging the government to prepare for a second wave of covid-19 in The BMJ made global headlines, including BBC News, International Business Times, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Washington Post. ● Experts in The BMJ raising concerns over the UK government’s “game-changing” antibody testing strategy made headlines in Times of India, Sky News, ITV News and BBC Breakfast. ● A study published in the Archives of Disease in Childhood finding that cyberbullying is linked to various types of post traumatic stress for victims and perpetrators was picked up by MailOnline, Forbes and CNN. ● Research published in Gut suggesting that inflammatory bowel disease is linked to more than a doubling in the risk of developing dementia was covered by CNN, Sky News and Newsweek. PRESS RELEASES The BMJ | Archives of Disease in Childhood Gut | Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health Vet Record EXTERNAL PRESS RELEASES BMJ Global Health OTHER COVERAGE The BMJ | Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases BMJ Case Reports | BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health BMJ Open | BMJ Open Gastroenterology BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine | BMJ Sexual & Reproductive Health British Journal of Sports Medicine