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Sydney Cbd Retail Market Brief August 2015

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Sydney Cbd Retail Market Brief August 2015 RESEARCH SYDNEY CBD RETAIL MARKET BRIEF AUGUST 2015 International retailers continue to have a major bearing on Key Facts the Sydney CBD retail market, with a clear preference for The vacancy rate in the Sydney CBD retail Core has large super prime space. This has forced other retailers to declined to 3.3%, down from look further afield for suitable options. 4.1% 18 months earlier The growing presence of Retail Overview international retailers has forced existing retailers into secondary locations where House prices continue to have a major For the Sydney CBD, the continued arrival of vacancies previously existed bearing on the NSW retail market as a rise in international retailers, particularly in the form household wealth has supported sustained of ‘fast fashion’ from the likes of Uniqlo and The Sydney CBD retail Core high levels of retail sales growth. Following a Forever 21 has supported tenant demand remains dominated by clothing, relatively weak Christmas trading period, over the past 12 months. With domestic footwear & soft goods retailers (36.9%) retail turnover has improved over the six expansion prospects in Europe and North months of 2015 to record annual growth of America becoming increasingly limited, the Significant capital remains in 6.7% in the 12 months to June 2015. Also overall attractiveness of the Australian the market with retail strata contributing to the recent improvement was market for these retailers is favourable, sales over the first half of 2015 the February and May interest rate cuts and supported by a resilient local economy and totalling $66.1 million weakening petrol prices (despite the recent high discretionary spending. Looking ahead, rise), both of which increased household the continued rollout of apparel/footwear spending capacity. retailers is expected to persist, following in the footsteps of H&M and Zara who Despite some recent stabilisation, the continue to increase their presence across decline of the Australian Dollar is supporting the country. However, for the Sydney CBD, local retailers through a combination of the next two to three years is likely to be increased tourism numbers and less online characterised by the influx of luxury retailers. purchases offshore by consumers. The latter is highlighted by a moderate slowdown in Knight Frank Research has completed its LUKE CRAWFORD online retailing. According to the NAB Online 2015 Sydney CBD Retail Core survey Senior Research Analyst Sales Index, May 2015 online sales showed which highlights vacancy and tenancy annual growth of 9.0%, down from 14.3% in mix trends across the precinct. Follow at @KnightFrankAu September 2014. SYDNEY CBD RETAIL CORE SURVEY Vacancy 18 months ago at 3.5%. However, it is footwear & soft goods weight is far evident that certain precincts have had a greater within CBD Shopping Centres at greater pull in attracting new tenants. The 45.3%. Within other retail formats, the As at July 2015, the vacancy rate in the luxury strip, which primarily runs along dominance is less pronounced, Sydney CBD retail Core has declined to Castlereagh Street and houses the likes particularly Street Frontages where 3.3%, down from 4.1% 18 months of Prada, Gucci and Chanel is extremely clothing, footwear & soft goods retailers earlier. The presence of international tight with no vacant space running from represent only 29.4% of shops. retailers seeking prime retail space has Martin Place to the north and Market been the main catalyst, as it has forced Street to the south. The precinct’s The second most dominant retail type in some retailers to look beyond the Super attractiveness for luxury retailers is the CBD retail Core is food retailing Prime retail Core (see back page for accentuated by Cartier leasing the (17.4%), closely followed by personal definition). This displacement has meant previously vacant space at 74 retailing (14.7%), the bulk of which were that some previous vacancies in Castlereagh Street. The high end retailer watch and jewellery retailers. secondary locations have now been will move from the MLC centre in the absorbed. For example, Uniqlo’s coming months and will occupy circa Over the past 18 months, the growing occupancy of all but a café on level 1 at 1,000m² across three levels at the new popularity of food retailing, particularly in the Mid City Centre has forced 18 flagship store. specialised food, saw its market share retailers to look for alternative premises, increase from 14.1% to 17.4%. This is in while Forever 21 has forced three major Similarly, George Street which line with the solid turnover growth retailers to look elsewhere for a new accommodates a mix of luxury, clothing recorded in takeaway, cafes and premises. and personal retailing (including Burberry restaurant retailing across the state, and Louis Vuitton) has recorded a modest averaging 16.3% per annum over the fall in the vacancy rate to 2.0% (down past two years; compared to 7.7% for TABLE 1 Sydney CBD Retail Core from 2.4%). This reduction was the result total retail turnover in NSW over the Vacancy by retail type (%) of a modest rise in tenant demand, same period. particularly from personal goods retailers Jan-14 Jul-15 (including mobile phones and Currently a number of centres and (%) (%) accessories). arcades are undergoing refurbishment in Arcades/Laneways 4.5 3.2 response to a greater focus on the Despite a considerable increase in ‘experience’ side of retailing. At the same Street Frontages 3.5 3.5 international retailer demand, Shopping time, to accommodate further Centres have experienced a small international retailer expansions into the Shopping Centres 2.9 3.3 increase in their vacancy rate from 2.9% Sydney CBD, a number of centres have Total Retail Vacancy 4.1 3.3 to 3.3%. The bulk of the available space recently completed or are in the process at centres within the CBD retail Core are of refurbishment for such retailers. The Source: Knight Frank Research small and in inferior locations which do recent completions include the Sydney *For definition of CBD Retail Core, see back page not offer the appropriate size or frontage Arcade and The Galleries for Forever 21 for retailers seeking flagship stores. (June 2015) and MUJI (May 2015) The largest reduction in the vacancy rate respectively, while the Glasshouse over the past 18 months was recorded in Tenancy Mix & New Centre is currently undergoing works to Arcades, falling from 4.5% to 3.2%. accommodate H&M and Zara Home. Arcades, which in past years have had Supply difficultly in leasing the top floors, are Beyond this, a number of mixed use now close to full occupancy. This result The retail tenancy mix in the Sydney CBD buildings are undergoing refurbishment/ has been supported by the expansion of retail Core remains dominated by redevelopment and will contain retail existing tenants, while the growing clothing, footwear & soft goods retailers, tenancies. This includes 5 Martin Place, shortage of available leasing options in while the proportion differs somewhat by 20 Martin Place, 333 George Street and the Super Prime retail Core has augured location and retail type. Overall, clothing, 383 George Street. In addition, a number well for other centres and arcades as footwear & soft goods retailing represents of properties are currently upgrading tenants have been forced to look further 36.9% of all retail shops within the CBD their food and beverage offering within afield for suitable options. retail Core, largely in the form of women's their food courts including the MLC clothing (12.0% of total) and other Centre, Australia Square/ Governor Place While churn has occurred, the vacancy clothing retailing (10.7% of total) which and Gateway. rate for Street Frontage shops has incorporates unisex retailers like Zara and remained on par with the level recorded Topshop/Topman. However, clothing, 2 SYDNEY CBD RETAIL AUGUST 2015 RESEARCH FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 with the momentum in the broader retail Sydney CBD Prime Core Retail Sydney CBD Core Retail Rental market flowing through to increased Tenancy Mix Ranges by Type demand for CBD retail strata space. With % of number of shops by type $ per sq.m—Gross fewer assets being brought to the market 100% $15,000 at a time when capital flows are at 90% historical highs, investors are becoming 80% $13,000 more aggressive in their approach to 70% secure assets. In turn, yields have 60% $11,000 tightened, with recent strata sales selling 50% in the 4.0% to 5.0% yield range on 40% $9,000 average. 30% 20% $7,000 During CY2014, CBD retail (strata) sales 10% totalled $90.1 million, 16% of which was 0% $5,000 Street Arcades Shopping located along Pitt Street, 11% on Frontages Centres Castlereagh Street and a further 9% on CLOTHING, FOOTWEAR & SOFT GOODS OTHER $3,000 SERVICES Castlereagh George Pitt Street Martin Place, underpinned by the sale of PERSONAL RETAILING Street Street Mall DEPARTMENT STORES FOOD RETAILING 1/53 Martin Place (Lindt Café) for $8 FITOUT/UNDER DEVELOPMENT VACANT Source: Knight Frank Research million. Assets priced below $4 million Source: Knight Frank Research dominated sales volumes, accounting for In recent months, a number of lease 58% of the total volumes and 81% of Tenant Demand & deals have occurred which will place assets exchanged. Asian investors have further downward pressure on the CBD been the most active players in the Rents retail Core vacancy rate over the next 12 market, with 80% of analysed Sydney months. This includes Microsoft and CBD retail (strata) transactions for The persistent demand from overseas Sephora at Westfield Sydney, Mimco at CY2014 stemming from Hong Kong retailers seeking prime space within the the Mid City Centre and undisclosed investors.
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