20190506 London IR Roadshow
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Investor Presentation November 2019 Disclaimer BY READING THE PRESENTATION SLIDES YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND AS FOLLOWS: This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of the business of ELLAKTOR S.A. (the “Company”) and its subsidiaries (together with the Company, the “Group”) and does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding the Group. Accordingly, none of the Group nor any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to, and accordingly no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied. None of the foregoing shall have any liability whatsoever for any errors or omissions or any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this information or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which may be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “except,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue,” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology or other forms of projections. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results or the actual performance of the Company and/or the Group may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements or projections. It should be noted that certain financial information relating to the Group, and contained in this document, has not been audited and in some cases is based on management information and estimates and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on them. This presentation is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of, or located in, any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction. Market and competitive position data in these materials has generally been obtained from industry publications and surveys or studies conducted by third-party sources. There are limitations with respect to the availability, accuracy, completeness and comparability of such data. While the Company believes that the industry and market data from external sources is accurate and correct, none of the Company, any of the entities within the Group or any of their respective affiliates, directors, officers, employees, advisors, representatives or any other person have independently verified such data or sought to verify that the information remains accurate as of the date of this presentation and none of the Company, any of the entities within the Group or any of their respective affiliates, directors, officers, employees, advisors, representatives or any other person make any representation as to the accuracy of such information. 2 Business Overview ELLAKTOR’s evolution into a leading diversified infrastructure player 1 Origins of ELLAKTOR 2 Repositioning towards a stable, cash generative toll road concession focused business Establishment of First concession Signed 3 of 5 major Acquired additional 6.5% AKTOR construction project signed concessions awarded in stake in Attiki Odos business Greece (increasing total stake to 65.75%) 1950s 1996 2008 2018 2001 2003 2019 Entry into Entry into Acquired remaining stake Renewable environment in previously listed RES Energy Segment segment business (achieving 100% (‘RES’) ownership) New strategy implemented in July 2018 following a change in ELLAKTOR’s Board of Directors with growth focused on 3 core businesses: Renewables, Phase 3: further diversification into high growth verticals including Concessions and Environment 3 renewables and environment 4 ELLAKTOR at a glance: stable cash flows from critical infrastructure portfolio Visible, predictable, long term cash flows from well invested portfolio of critical infrastructure Core Group Toll road Renewables Environment Construction Real Estate Concessions1 LTM 3Q19 Revenue / EBITDA €66m / €48m / 72.1% €208m / €157m / 75.5% €88m / €12m / 14.1% €(14)m EBITDA €5m EBITDA / margin Operation of concession Environmental services and Construction of infrastructure, Operation of renewable wind projects in Greece from Developer and operator of Activity waste management across 7 public, and private projects farms throughout Greece design through to shopping centres in Greece countries in Europe internationally maintenance • 19 wind parks, 1 small • Pioneered first • 70 years of expertise • Operator of the largest • Market leader in both Key hydro and 1 solar PV concessions in Greece with unique experience Retail Park in Greece Greece and Cyprus – highlights • • Holder of 5 of 7 key toll and know how • Total planned capacity with 26 total project Holds assets in of c.579MW by 2020E roads in Greece • €1.3bn of backlog2 Romania Ownership 100% 100% 94.4% 100% 55.5% Notes: 5 1. Excludes Moreas concession which had €32.5m EBITDA as at LTM September 2019 2. As at 30 September 2019 Sizeable renewables portfolio benefitting from fixed prices under 20+ year PPAs… Sizeable renewables portfolio on attractive fixed tariff agreements 579MW due by 2020E following significant historical capex • 2nd largest wind energy producer in Greece1 following Total Wind capacity with operating permits (MW) Capacity under 2 significant capacity build out over the last decade with limited construction capex remaining 579 • 19 wind farms, 1 small hydro and 1 photovoltaic project in operation 491 with an installed capacity of c. 296MW, with 579MW due to be operational by 2020 year end • 20 year Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with guaranteed offtake from the market operator 289 • remaining 241 18.4 year weighted average portfolio life 208 208 171 171 • Low maintenance assets, generating EBITDA margins in excess 150 138 118 of 70% 85 87 71 77 55 55 32 38 34 29 26 15 22 €93/MWh average fixed tariff across the portfolio 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2 89 98 70 MW Capacity Capex Capex remaining at 3Q19 100% fixed 100% 272 278 Avg. MWh Significant portfolio build-out over the last decade 29 MW Limited expansionary capex remaining Fixed Fixed Fixed ELLAKTOR portfolio ELLAKTOR Feed in tariff Feed in premium Feed in premium Financing secured for the remaining via auction portion Notes: 6 1. Source: Hellenic Wind Energy Association Statistics, July 2019 2. Includes hydro and PV capacity …producing attractive returns and stable cash flow generation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020E Capacity1 (MW) 87 116 139 162 171 190 211 246 282 579 2020 Capacity factor 27.5% 25.6% 27.3% 27.0% 22.9% 26.5% 26.7% 25.3% 26.9% year end year Operating Availability 98.4% 97.9% 97.8% 97.6% 98.2% 98.0% 98.1% 98.2% 98.2% Revenues/MW onwards 227 211 228 227 185 211 214 202 213 (€k)2 EBITDA/MW 156 138 148 136 122 148 148 135 153 (€k)2 Financial OCF/MW (€k)3 FY16 – FY18 average: 114 70 80% 60 70% 60 Margin EBITDA % 50 60% 50 40 45 40 43 50% 30 37 32 32 31 33 28 40% 20 24 21 22 21 10 20 30% 14 16 0 20% Revenue & EBITDA (€m) & EBITDA Revenue 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin Renewable portfolio provides a strong, steady cash flow base – (579MW) x (historical €114k OCF / MW avg.) implies c.€65m p.a. run rate cash flows Notes: 7 1. Weighted average installed capacity 2. Revenue and EBITDA / MW based on weighted average operating capacity 3. OCF/MW defined as Operating cash flow per weighted average installed MW; Operating cash defined as EBITDA – cash taxes – change in working capital – interest expense Evolution of Greek Renewable Energy market legislation Historical Greek RES market legislation RES Special Account Deficit1 • Tariffs historically paid in full from the RES Special Account €178m RES Special Account surplus as of June 2019 • Special Account deficit grew in the years leading up to 2014, primarily due to unsustainable PV tariffs (c. €500/MWh vs €86–120/MWh for Deficit (€m) Wind) Forecast 2019-2020 4,000 • Account now in surplus following successful measures taken to reduce Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 (3) €3.9bn the deficit since 2014, including: 3,500 1 Temporary application of special RES tax 3,000 2 Special RES levy, adjusted every 6 months to support the account (3) €2.7bn 3 Retroactive haircut on tariffs (particularly for PV, minimal for Wind) 2,500 4 Change from FiT to FiP, reducing the portion of the tariff paid by the special account 2,000 (2) €2.1bn 1,500 (3) €1.5bn (2) €1.4bn Feed in Tariff Feed in Premium 1,000 (2) €882m Top 500 RES Special (2) €568m up (1) €191m (1) €62m (1) €32.2m Account Surplus premi (1) €298m 0 Fixed tariff um RES paid in full (1) €42m (1) €191m (1) €138m example: (+70) (+70) from RES special (500) Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 May-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 FiP account account System to marginal Distributor price (1) RES account balance FiT (2) Projected balance had the levy not been introduced (3) Projected balance had the levy not been introduced, and tariffs not been rationalised 8 Notes: 1. Source: DAPEEP S.A. Monthly Report, June 2019 Well invested portfolio of toll road concessions critical to every day life in Greece… Portfolio comprising 5 of Greece’s 7 key toll roads with a staggered lifecycle