The End of the Suharto

CSS THE END OF THE STRATEGIC BRIEFING PAPERS SUHARTO ERA Volume 1: Part 3: December 1999.

Indonesia Minus East Timor, After the presidential vote there resolved but the military certainly Plus a New President were major street demonstrations seems in no position to play a by her disappointed supporters but dominant role. For one thing, the The election of Abdurrahman her election as vice-president constitutional processes have a Wahid as President of Indonesia on makes it unlikely that there will be momentum of their own. For October 20 and of Megawati a campaign in the streets to have another, it is recognised that too Sukarnoputri as Vice-President a her declared president. great a prominence of the military day later has brought to an end the is likely to cause public era of Suharto politics. Although Abdurrahman Wahid, demonstrations. For a third, the better known by his nickname Gus military leadership is becoming Abdurrahman Wahid beat Dur, is a Muslim cleric, he seems conscious of a need to appear to Megawati Sukarnoputri by 60 votes likely to lead a secular, not an observe human rights. General for the presidency. Megawati’s Islamic, Indonesia. Right-wing Wiranto, the military commander, party, the Indonesian Democratic Muslims regard him as being too withdrew his bid for the vice- Party of Struggle (PDI-P), had won close to non-Muslims. In a strong presidency, which is an indication the biggest proportion of votes (34 speech after his election he pledged that the military eschews an overt per cent) in the House of to continue a commitment to free role in politics. Representatives (DPR) election trade, the pursuit of prosperity, the held on June 7 but she needed allies defence of national honour and While the rest of the world absorbs in the People’s Consultative territorial integrity, and the its lessons from the tragedy of East Assembly (MPR), which chooses promotion of democracy. The DPR Timor, Indonesia absorbs its own, the president. Before the election had been the fairest in which is that it lost part of its presidential election was held, the Indonesia’s history. territory. That loss, rather than the former president, B.J. Habibie, had appalling events in East Timor, been the leading candidate and was The elections of the president and seems to have preoccupied the supported by Golkar, the then vice-president were the most MPR. The Indonesian perspective ruling party. When he failed to momentous actions by the MPR but on East Timor always differed persuade the MPR to back his several other highly significant greatly from that of much of the rest stewardship of the country from the moves were taken. The results of of the world. The Portuguese time that Suharto had resigned on the referendum on East Timor’s colony was seized in 1975 because May 21, 1998, he withdrew his independence were endorsed and Indonesia did not want to tolerate candidacy. the 1978 decree, which an independent, possibly Marxist, incorporated East Timor as country as a near neighbour. It also Megawati’s inability to turn her Indonesia’s 27th province, considered that an independent popular support into votes in the annulled. Ten articles of Indonesia’s East Timor might worsen divisions MPR has been put down to three 1945 Constitution were amended to within Indonesia and might main factors. She seemed not to curtail the powers of the president, encourage fragmentation of the have a comprehensive plan for the chief one being that the Republic of Indonesia. Outsiders Indonesia’s future and tended to president and the vice-president might deplore the subjugation of hark back sentimentally to the days are now limited to two five-year the East Timorese, the brutalities of in which her father, Sukarno, terms. The new Government was the Indonesian military and the Indonesia’s first president, ran the also told that it must confer special assaults on human rights. However, country. She failed to seek support autonomy on the provinces of Aceh Indonesia is a country of 300 ethnic from parties that could be allies. and Irian Jaya and seek to resolve groups, diverse languages, and a She may also have suffered from the problems in the province of considerable number of religions, the fact that she was a woman Maluku. diversity and dissent and, it must because many Muslims in this, the be added, a level of violence that is world’s largest Muslim country, The extent to which the military part of the fabric of the country. considered it in-appropriate that it will play a prominent role in What was different, an Indonesian should be led by a woman. Indonesian politics has not been might ask, about East Timor?

Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand. Tel: 64 4 463 5434 Fax: 64 4 463 5437 Email: [email protected] http://www.vuw.ac.nz/css/ Page 2.

The results of the referendum came have been killed, 200 of them since Muslims in the world. A unified as a humiliation for the notion of May of this year. Brutalities from Indonesia is more likely to be a Indonesia, forged (mainly) out of the military, especially in Aceh, moderate Indonesia. Balkanisation the remnants of the Dutch empire. have made the situation much would inevitably bring much more It was a notable loss of face. Added worse. A nine-year military ethnic and religious intolerance and to that are the old fears of operation has been brought, at least violence. Despite the outbreaks of fragmentation. These fears are not officially, to an end but has left violence over the last two years, idle because calls for referenda bitter feelings in Aceh. In West and the appalling attacks on ethnic elsewhere grew as the plan for a Kalimantan, in Borneo, the issues Chinese, the ideal of Indonesia has referendum in East Timor have also been religious because of been a secular and multi-ethnic developed. The loss of East Timor the presence of migrant traders state. seemed to make the loss of soldiers’ from Madura, the island close to lives in East Timor count for and north of Java, and the The fourth reason lies in nothing. Military pride, and the indigenous Dayak and Malay Indonesia’s international traditional dual social and defence peoples. Some of the most savage connections. Indonesia is by far the roles of the military, made the incidents have occurred in this largest country in the Association stakes over East Timor even higher. region and thousands of people of Southeast Asian Nations have been moved to safer regions. (ASEAN), is a member of the These factors help explain, but On Ambon, one of the Spice Islands Organisation of Petroleum nothing can excuse, the final days in the province of Maluku, the Exporting Countries and a host of of the Indonesian military in East clashes have been largely between other international organisations. Timor. There is incontrovertible Muslims and Christians, though ASEAN is a stabilising influence in evidence that the military created ethnic Chinese have also been the region and gains some of its and supported, and may be badly affected. Secession in these strength from its largest member. A continuing to support, the two regions, however, is not the group of smaller countries would paramilitary groups who burning issue it is in Aceh and Irian detract from that stabilising slaughtered pro-independence East Jaya. influence and increase other threats Timorese. These militia also to stability. devastated the land. Why was that Preventing other regions from done? Vindictiveness seems the breaking away will be one of the The fifth reason lies in protection most likely explanation. Similar most demanding of the tasks faced of the environment. Fires in Borneo patterns are to be observed by the new administration. The have created bad effects in elsewhere. In Aceh, for example, possibility of fragmentation or the Indonesia itself and in its hundreds of schools and other “Balkanisation” of the Indonesian neighbours over the last few years. public buildings have been archipelago cannot be dismissed. It Such fires would be likely to destroyed by mysterious groups in would not be in the interests of the proliferate in a number of smaller way reminiscent of the damage region to see this occur for five countries. wrought in East Timor. reasons. To conclude, most pessimistically, Four other regions in Indonesia The first reason is protection of the tensions over wealth and have been notable for separatist or international waterways. Indonesia poverty, between Muslim and non- other unrest. Aceh, a province in the lies alongside the sea-lanes Muslim, and between indigenous west of the island of Sumatra, and connecting the Indian and Pacific Indonesian and ethnic Chinese in Irian Jaya, which shares a border Oceans. It is alongside or straddles Indonesia might not be confined with Papua New Guinea, have long important shipping straits, within the borders of the been centres of separatist particularly the Malacca and the constituent parts of a Balkanised sentiment. One complaint in Aceh Lombok Straits. Indonesia, but spill over into war is that the area’s resources go involving neighbouring states. mostly to Jakarta’s coffers. Aceh has The second reason is control of the largest offshore gas field in crime. Fragmentation of the The price of an unified Indonesia Southeast Asia and is a centre for country would mean even less in the future, however, is likely to growing aromatic and expensive control over piracy and drug be increased low-intensity conflict Arabica coffee. Irian Jaya is rich in running. Already, many of the and a prominent internal security minerals. These valuable resources increasing number of pirates in the role, with all of its implications, for make it unlikely that Jakarta would region are Indonesian. the military. The challenge is to countenance secession. Civil rights acknowledge the desires for groups estimate that in the nine- A third reason is ethnic and autonomy, and find the year struggle between the military religious stability. Indonesia is the compromises that will meet those and the separatists 2000 Acehnese country with the largest number of desires while ensuring Indonesia’s unity.