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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 30 Aug 2016 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Datalex Market expansion to drive growth Company Events Total Produce Robust H1 performance; upgrading FY 30-Aug Datalex; Q2 2016 results Total Produce; Q2 2016 results forecasts by 2.5% 31-Aug 888 Holdings; Q2 2016 results Grafton Group; Q2 2016 results Cairn Homes Growing confidence in completions trajectory ICG; Q2 2016 results 06-Sep Dalata Hotel Group; H116 Results FBD Holdings MIBI claims for uninsured drivers up 17% ytd Economic View Mortgage approval data for July show 24% growth Banks BOI extends mortgage cashback offer from 2% to 3% Economic Events Ireland 30-Aug ILO Unemployment Rate Aug 2016 02-Sep Industrial Production M/M Jul 2016 United Kingdom 30-Aug BoE Mortgage Approvals Jul 2016 31-Aug GfK Consumer Confidence Aug 2016 United States Europe Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap Datalex Market expansion to drive growth Datalex reported a 22% increase in H1 adj. EBITDA, ahead of our +20% estimate. This was Recommendation: Buy driven by an outperformance on revenues (+17% vs GBY +14%) as platform revenues - Closing Price: €3.45 driven by JetBlue, its recent Chinese go-lives and organic customers - all delivered, to offset Jack Diskin a contract which concluded at the end of 2015. +353-1-641 9193 [email protected] However, it is the new customer wins and business developments announced this morning which are most eye-catching. While FY16 guidance has been trimmed by c.$0.6m to reflect up-front mobilisation costs and scaling investment; the completion of a deal with the Lufthansa Group and further growth in China, both announced this morning, should support an upward revision to our FY18 forecast. Our FY17/18 estimates had already built in expectation of new customer wins, and the signing of another Chinese carrier adds comfort to our FY17e EBITDA. However, the market expansion outlined today suggests the 20-25% multi-year growth trajectory may steepen, and that our FY18 estimate looks light. We await more detail on the Lufthansa contract in the coming weeks to determine the scale of the upgrade. Beyond the direct financial from Lufthansa, we expect Datalex’s enhanced profile to provide opportunities with other legacy carriers. All of this is expected drive a re-rating of the stock, which currently trades at a 20% discount on a PEG multiple to its larger travel retail peers. Home… Page 2 30 Aug. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Total Produce Robust H1 performance; upgrading FY forecasts by 2.5% Total produce reported a strong H1 performance this morning, with adjusted EPS growth of Recommendation: Buy 11.6% which was 6% ahead of our forecast. Growth was driven across all divisions while the Closing Price: €1.56 finance charge was also slightly lower than forecast. Guidance for the FY has been raised to Patrick Higgins the top end of the 10.5-11.5 EPS range. We are likely to increase our current 11.3c by +353-1-641 0403 c.2.5% to 11.5c. [email protected] As expected, the international division grew strongly, with adjusted EBITA of €4.9m, up 96% yoy. While the contribution from recently acquired Progressive Produce was the key driver of this strong growth, the underlying business also traded strongly. The Eurozone division performed strongly in the period with revenue and adjusted EBITA up 4.4% and 8.9% respectively (3% and 7% ahead of forecasts). Key to the strong growth (and outperformance vs forecast) was the contribution of recent acquisitions, with LFL revenues up 2% (mainly volumes), and a slightly better margin performance. In the non-Eurozone division, LFL sales grew 6% driven by increases in both volumes and price. While sterling weakness was a headwind, this was offset by the incremental contributions from acquisitions in the period. Specifically on the recent referendum in the UK, while acknowledging the macro uncertainty that it brings, management does not expect it to have a material impact on the Group. Net debt came in better than forecast at €95.7m (€110m forecast), mainly due to increased trade receivables financing of €10m and good working capital management. With net debt/EBITDA at 1.1x, the Group has plenty of firepower to continue its acquisition focused growth strategy. This morning’s results underpin our positive stance on Total Produce. We continue to see good upside from current levels given: i) its consistent earnings growth track record; ii) significant expansion opportunities in both Europe and the US; and, iii) a robust balance sheet. Home… Page 3 30 Aug. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Cairn Homes Growing confidence in completions trajectory Cairn’s H116 results were ahead of expectations, highlighting strong momentum for H2 Recommendation: Buy completions at its Parkside site. We have raised our 2016 sales from 101 to 107. Cairn is live Closing Price: €1.04 on 5 sites and flags it will be working on a further 5 sites within 12 months. We are retaining Eamonn Hughes our c.350 unit run-rate for 2017 and c.790 for 2018. Cairn also indicated it had growing +353-1-641 9442 confidence of hitting its target 1,200 run rate in 2019 and 20% EBIT target. We have raised [email protected] our FY19f sales by 5% to 1,104. Arguably, the Irish housing market backdrop has improved over the summer as there has been an improvement in mortgage approvals and a number of the banks have been reducing mortgage interest rates, which will aid affordability. At government level, a new National Housing Plan, including an infrastructure fund which may overlap with some of Cairn’s sites, is likely to be supplemented by incentives for developers and first time buyers in the Budget on October 11. The stock has struggled over the summer, 11% off its Q2 highs, in hindsight, a case of sell in May and go away, and come back on St Legers Day. The latter is September 10, perfectly timed ahead of the upcoming Budget, which is likely to be the next key reference point for Cairn. In addition, mounting evidence of a rising completions trajectory will see the stock re-rate, in our view, with 2017 sales estimated at 3.5x 2016 levels and 2.2x growth in 2018. We reiterate our €1.31 PT. Home… FBD Holdings MIBI claims for uninsured drivers up 17% ytd MIBI (the Motor Insurers’ Bureau of Ireland) published figures yesterday that motor Recommendation: Buy insurance claims involving uninsured or untraced drivers jumped 17% in the seven months Closing Price: €7.05 to the end of July. MIBI typically pays out c.€60m a year on claims on uninsured or untraced Eamonn Hughes drivers, with the Bureau warning that the 17% increase is a significant jump that will result +353-1-641 9442 in further premium rises for motorists. [email protected] The data from MIBI highlights another avenue of pressure on insurers, likely to see further rates rises in the coming 6 months and into 2017. Our models have rates up 5.5% in H2 (though hi-single digit in motor) for FBD, with a further 3.3% growth in FY17. This will facilitate the company returning to breakeven in Q416 and profitability in 2017. Home… Page 4 30 Aug. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Economic View Mortgage approval data for July show 24% growth The positive trend in mortgage approvals continued in July, with the latest lending data from Dermot O’Leary +353-1-641 9167 the Banking and Payments Federation showing an increase in both value and volume across [email protected] the board. The total value of mortgages approved grew by 24% yoy in July. While this is slower than the growth achieved in June (+37% yoy), it represents a healthy rate of increase. In the three months to July, the total value of mortgage approvals was up 29% yoy. This was driven by growth in volume approved (+18% yoy) as well as growth in average loan size (+9% yoy). The strongest growth continued to come from Re-mortgaging, which grew in value by 93% yoy in the 3 months to July. Re-mortgaging has grown 388% over the last 2 years thanks to increasing awareness of lower mortgage-rate products available in the marketplace, albeit from a low base. The strongest growth in transactional mortgage values over the 3-month period came from first-time buyers (27% yoy) and mover purchasers (23% yoy) versus 16% yoy growth in investor mortgages. The July data is building on the rebound seen in Q2 as the impact of the macro- prudential rules introduced by the Central Bank in February 2015 dissipates. The strong approvals growth in Q2 and into early Q3 augurs well for a pick-up in lending activity in H2 and possibly the first few months of 2017. Though still early, it probably lends credence to the view that the risk bias to our €5.2bn gross new lending figure +(9% yoy) for the full year is positive. Home… Banks BOI extends mortgage cashback offer from 2% to 3% Bank of Ireland announced yesterday that it is to extend its 2% cashback offer for new Eamonn Hughes +353-1-641 9442 mortgages to 3%.
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