Economic Development
Milton Keynes Council
www.milton-keynes.gov.uk/council-business/
Milton Keynes Local Economic Assessment Technical Document – January 2011 Table of Contents
Page
Chapter 1 Introduction ...... - 3 -
Chapter 2 Milton Keynes Economic Functional Area...... - 4 - 2.2 Commuting Patterns ...... - 4 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise ...... - 5 - 3.1 Industrial Structure...... - 5 - 3.1.1 Business Units...... - 5 - 3.1.2 Employment by Sector in Milton Keynes 1998 – 2008...... - 8 - 3.1.3 Sector Profile for MK Industries ...... - 14 - 3.2 Enterprise and Innovation ...... - 17 - 3.2.1 Location Quotient...... - 17 - 3.2.2 Business Registrations ...... - 19 - 3.2.2 Business Deregistration...... - 20 - 3.2.3 Net Business Change ...... - 22 - 3.2.4 Registered Stock at Year End ...... - 23 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance...... - 25 - 4.1 Gross Value Added...... - 25 - 4.2 Knowledge Based Industries ...... - 28 - 4.3 Earnings...... - 28 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities ...... - 32 - 5.1 Milton Keynes Population ...... - 32 - 5.1.1 Population by Ward ...... - 37 - 5.2 The MK Labour Market ...... - 40 - 5.2.1 Working Age Population in MK ...... - 40 - 5.2.2 Self Employment...... - 43 - 5.2.3 Occupational Structure ...... - 45 - 5.3 Job Vacancies in Milton Keynes ...... - 47 - 5.4 Learning and Skills...... - 47 - 5.4.1 Qualifications ...... - 47 -
Table of Contents
Page
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion ...... - 64 - 6.1 Unemployment...... - 64 - 6.1.1 Unemployment by Gender...... - 65 - 6.1.2 Unemployment by Age and Ethnicity MK 2010...... - 68 - 6.1.3 Ward Unemployment ...... - 70 - 6.1.4 Long Term Unemployment ...... - 72 - 6.1.5 Young People not in ‘Education, Employment or Training’ (NEET) ...... - 74 - 6.2 Social Exclusion...... - 76 - 6.2.1 Benefits Trends...... - 76 - 6.3 Crime ...... - 82 - 6.4 Health ...... - 83 -
Chapter 7 Sustainable Economic Growth ...... - 85 - 7.1 Housing...... - 85 - 7.1.1 Existing Households in Housing Need ...... - 86 -
Chapter 8 Economic Competitiveness...... - 90 -
Chapter 9 Future Growth Prospects ...... - 91 - 9.1 GVA ...... - 91 -
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 2 -
Chapter 1 Introduction
The purpose of the Local Economic Assessment Technical Document is to provide supporting evidence to the analysis and discussion contained in the main document.
The format of this document is taken form the Milton Keynes Local Economic Assessment where chapters are consistent and subsections directly corresponding to the stated data in the main document.
Data tables for contained graphs and charts in the Local Economic Assessment can be found in this document.
Please take into consideration that every effort has been made to use the most up to date available data at the time of publishing. However in some cases due to the publication dates of data and their sources, some data sets may differ. When using this document please cross check against any new data that may be available as data is constantly changing.
Any further queries or data requests can be directed to the Economic Development team within Milton Keynes Council.
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 3 -
Chapter 2 Milton Keynes Economic Functional Area
2.2 Commuting Patterns
Table 2.1: Place of work for MK Residents, 2008.
Place of Work Number of Employees Milton Keynes 105,162 Bedfordshire 5,824 Other 5,686 Inner London 3,852 Northhants 3,800 Buckinghamshire 2,320 Source: ONS
Table 2.2: Place of residence for MK workers, 2008.
Place of Residence Number of Workers Milton Keynes 105,162 Northants 15,000 Bedfordshire 13,959 Other 11,096 Buckinghamshire 9421 Luton 3,899 Source: ONS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 4 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
3.1 Industrial Structure
3.1.1 Business Units
Table 3.1: Urban and Rural Business Units, MK, 2008
Milton Keynes Number % Rural 2,084 19 Urban 8,887 81 Source: NOMIS
Table 3.2: Business Units by Sector, MK, 1998/2008
1998 2008 Sector Number % Number % Energy and Water 18 0% 64 0% Agriculture and Fishing 9 0% 5 1% Manufacturing 685 8% 588 5% Transport and Communications 632 5% 948 5% Other services 2,089 9% 2,561 7% Public Administration, Education & Health 410 8% 543 8% Construction 2,881 8% 4,615 9% Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants 650 26% 863 23% Banking, Finance and Insurance 691 36% 784 42% Source: NOMIS
Table 3.3: Percentage Change in Business Units by Sector, MK, 1998/2008
Sector Number % Change
Energy and Water 46 256% Agriculture and Fishing -4 -44% Manufacturing -97 -14% Transport and Communications 316 50% Other services 472 23% Public Administration, Education & Health 133 32% Construction 1,734 60% Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants 213 33% Banking, Finance and Insurance 93 13% Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 5 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Fig 3.1: Percentage Change in Business Units by Sector, MK, 1998/2008
Percentage Change in Business Units by Sector, MK, 1998-2008
65.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% Water Public Health Banking, Energy and Fishing Insurance Hotels and Distribution, Finance and Restaurants Education & Construction Administration, Manufacturing Agriculture and Transport and Other services Communications Source: NOMIS
Table 3.4: Percentage Change in Business Units by Sector, MK, South East & England, 1998/2008
Sector Milton Keynes England South East
Utilities 54% 42% 32%
Manufacturing -14% -16% -14%
Services 39% 21% 24% Source: NOMIS
Fig 3.2: Percentage Change in Business Units by Sector, MK, South East & England, 1998/2008
Percentage Change in Business Units by Sector, MK, South East and England, 1998-2008 60%
50%
40% England 30% Milton Keynes 20%
10% South East
0% Utilities Manufacturing Services -10%
-20%
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 6 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.5: Business Units by Employee Size Band, MK, South East & England 1998
Employee Size Band Milton Keynes South East England 1-10 employees 6,492 80% 275,375 85% 1,509,488 83% 11-49 employees 1,176 15% 37,553 12% 236,335 13% 50-199 employees 310 4% 8,767 3% 53,329 3% 200+ employees 87 1% 2,023 1% 12,745 1% Total 8,065 100.0% 323,718 100% 1,811,897 100% Source: NOMIS
Table 3.6: Business Units by Employee Size Band, MK, South East & England 2008
Employee Size Band Milton Keynes South East England
1-10 employees 9,148 83% 342,420 87% 1,844,371 85%
11-49 employees 1,328 12% 41,198 10% 243,010 11%
50-199 employees 398 4% 9,826 2% 60,096 3%
200+ employees 97 1% 2147 1% 13,828 1%
Total 10,971 100% 395,591 100% 2,161,305 100% Source: NOMIS
Fig 3.3: Business Units by Employee Size band, MK, 1998
Business Units by Employee size band, MK, 1998
1-10 employees
15% 11-49 employees
80% 4% 1% 50-199 employees
200 or more employees
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 7 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Fig 3.4: Business Units by Employee Size band, MK, 2008
Business Units by Employee size band, MK, 2008
1-10 employees
11-49 employees 12% 83% 50-199 employees 4% 1% 200 or more employees
Source: NOMIS
3.1.2 Employment by Sector in Milton Keynes 1998 – 2008
Table 3.7: Employment by Sector, MK, 1998-2008
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sector % % % % % % % % % % % Agriculture & Fishing 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 Energy & Water 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Manufacturing 15.9 13.1 13.4 11.7 11.0 10.4 9.5 9.4 9.3 8.7 7.9 Construction 2.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants 31.0 28.1 29.5 31.9 30.0 31.3 29.2 27.7 27.8 26.0 26.2 Transport & Communications 7.1 7.9 7.1 8.4 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.6 9.3 8.9 9.1 Banking, Finance & Insurance 22.5 25.6 27.8 24.1 25.7 25.5 28.1 30.5 28.6 29.2 30.1 Public admin, Educ & Health 16.4 17.7 14.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 16.5 17.6 17.7 19.3 18.9 Other Services 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 5.2 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.2 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 8 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.8: Employment Levels by Sector, MK 2007 and 2008
Year 2007 2008 Industry No % No % Agriculture and fishing 430 0.3 375 0.3 Energy and water 196 0.1 7 0.0 Manufacturing 12,145 8.7 11,230 7.9 Construction 3,330 2.4 3,425 2.4 Distribution, hotels and restaurants 36,140 26.0 37,312 26.2 Transport and communications 12,425 8.9 12,917 9.1 Banking, finance and insurance, etc 40,490 29.2 42,980 30.1 Public administration, education & health 26,801 19.3 27,013 18.9 Other services 6,900 5.0 7,361 5.2 Total 138,855 100.0 142,620 100.0 Source: NOMIS
Table 3.9: Business Units and Employment levels by Size band, MK, South East and England 2008
Milton Keynes South East England Employee Size Band Units Employees Units Employees Units Employees 1-10 83% 16% 87% 24% 85% 21%
11-49 12% 21% 10% 25% 11% 24%
50-199 4% 26% 2% 24% 3% 24%
200+ 1% 36% 1% 28% 1% 31% Source: NOMIS
Fig 3.5: Business Units and Employment levels by Size band, MK, South East and England 2008
Business Units and Employment by Sizeband, MK, South East and England, 2008
90% 80% 1-10 employees 70% 60% 11-49 employees 50% 50-199 employees 40% 30% 200+ employees 20% 10% 0% Units Employees Units Employees Units Employees
MK South East England
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 9 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.10: Shift in Sectoral Employment, MK, South East and England, 1998/2008
Milton Keynes England South East Year 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 Sector % % % % % % Utilities & Construction 3 3 5 5 5 5 Manufacturing 16 8 17 10 13 8 Services 82 89 77 84 81 86 Source: NOMIS
Table 3.11: Business Units and Employment levels by Sector and Sizeband, MK, 2008
50-199 200 + Sector 1-10 employees 11-49 employees employees Employees % % % % Agriculture and fishing 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 Energy and water 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing 5.3 8.0 12.7 5.6 Construction 7.4 2.7 2.4 0.0 Distribution, hotels and restaurants 30.7 35.7 25.0 19.3 Transport and communications 4.4 4.4 9.5 13.6 Banking, finance and insurance 34.9 22.4 27.6 34.4 Public administration, education & health 8.2 21.2 17.3 23.6 Other services 8.6 5.4 5.1 3.5 Source: NOMIS
Fig 3.6: Business Units and Employment levels by Sector and Size band, MK, 2008
Employment by Size band, MK, 2008
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0
% 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 water health Public fishing hotels and Energy and restaurants Distribution, Construction education & Manufacturing administration, Agriculture and Other services Transport and and insurance communications Banking, finance
1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50-199 employees 200 or more employees
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 10 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.12: Business Units with 1-10 Employees, 2008
Sector MK South East England Agriculture and fishing 0.6 1.1 1.0 Energy and Water 0.1 0.1 0.1 Construction 9.8 11.8 11.2 Transport and Communications 4.8 3.7 4.1 Other services 7.4 8.8 8.7 Manufacturing 4.7 5.3 5.9 Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants 21.3 23.4 26.2 Banking, Finance and Insurance 45.6 40.3 37.0 Public Administration, Education & Health 5.7 5.5 5.8 Source: NOMIS
Fig 3.7: Business Units with 1-10 Employees, 2008
Business Units, 1-10 Employees, MK, South East & England, 2008
50.0 45.0 40.0 MK South East England 35.0 30.0
% 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 water health Public fishing hotels and Energy and Energy restaurants Distribution, Construction education & Manufacturing administration, Agriculture and Agriculture and Transport Other services Other and insurance communications Banking, finance Banking,
Source: NOMIS
Table 3.13: Business Units with 11-49 Employees, 2008
Sector MK South East England
Agriculture and fishing 0.4 0.4 0.4 Energy and Water 0.0 0.2 0.3 Construction 3.0 4.5 4.7 Transport and Communications 4.4 4.4 4.3 Other services 5.9 6.3 6.0 Manufacturing 7.7 7.8 9.3 Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants 36.8 33.5 33.2 Banking, Finance and Insurance 23.0 19.3 18.3 Public Administration, Education & Health 18.8 23.5 23.6 Source: NOMIS LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 11 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Fig 3.8: Business Units with 11-49 Employees, 2008
Business Units, 11-49 employees, MK, South East & England, 2008
40.0 35.0 30.0 MK South East England 25.0
% 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 water health Public fishing hotels and Energy and Energy restaurants Distribution, Construction education & Manufacturing administration, Agriculture and Agriculture and Transport Other services Other and insurance communications Banking, finance Banking,
Source: NOMIS Table 3.14: Business Units with 50-199 Employees, 2008
Sector MK South East England Agriculture and fishing 0.3 0.2 0.2 Energy and Water 0.0 0.5 0.5 Construction 2.8 3.2 3.8 Transport and Communications 8.3 6.6 6.1 Other services 5.3 5.7 5.3 Manufacturing 11.8 8.8 11.2 Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants 25.6 21.0 20.4 Banking, Finance and Insurance 26.4 20.7 18.9 Public Administration, Education & Health 19.6 33.2 33.7 Source: NOMIS
Fig 3.9: Business Units with 50-199 Employees, 2008
Business Units, 50-199 Employees, MK, South East & England, 2008 35.0 30.0 MK South East England 25.0 20.0 % 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 water health Public fishing hotels and Energy and Energy restaurants Distribution, Construction education & Manufacturing administration, Agriculture and Agriculture and Transport Other services Other and insurance communications Banking, finance Banking,
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 12 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.15: Business Units with 200+ Employees, 2008
Sector MK South East England
Agriculture and fishing 0.0 0.1 0.0 Energy and Water 0.0 1.0 0.9 Construction 0.0 2.5 2.9 Transport and Communications 12.4 8.2 8.6 Other services 4.1 3.4 3.3 Manufacturing 8.2 10.2 12.9 Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants 23.7 21.3 18.8 Banking, Finance and Insurance 35.1 24.9 24.6 Public Administration, Education & Health 16.5 28.5 27.8 Source: NOMIS
Fig 3.10: Business Units with 200+ Employees, 2008
Business Units, 200+ Employees, MK, South East & England, 2008
35.0 30.0 MK South East England 25.0 20.0 % 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 water health Public fishing hotels and Energy and Energy restaurants Distribution, Construction education & Manufacturing administration, Agriculture and Agriculture and Transport Other services Other and insurance communications Banking, finance Banking,
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 13 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
3.1.3 Sector Profile for MK Industries
The numbers and percentages of employees working in each sector in Milton Keynes are set out in the tables below.
Table 3.16: Employment Distribution within the Banking, Finance and Insurance Sector, MK, 2008
Data Units Employees Banking and Finance Sector N0 % No % Banking, finance and insurance 4,615 42.1 42,98030.1 Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 118 1.1 4,260 3.0 Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security 16 0.1 116 0.1 Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 72 0.7 1,114 0.8 Real estate activities 614 5.6 2,272 1.6 Renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of 90 0.8 801 0.6 personal and household goods Computer and related activities 1,110 10.1 9,405 6.6 Research and development 11 0.1 39 0.0 Other business activities 2,584 23.6 24,973 17.5 Source: NOMIS
Table 3.17: Employment Distribution within the Distribution Hotel and Restaurants sector, 2008
Data Units Employees Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants Sector Number % Number % Distribution, hotels and restaurants 2,561 23.3 37,312 26.1 Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; retail 334 3.0 4,601 3.2 sale of automotive fuel Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and 564 5.1 9,006 6.3 motorcycles Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of 1,076 9.8 16,937 11.9 personal and household goods Hotels and restaurants 587 5.4 6,768 4.7 Source: NOMIS
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Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.18: Employment Distribution in the Public administration, education and health sector, 2008
Data Units Employees Public Administration, Education & Health Sector number % number % Public administration, education & health 863 7.9 27,013 18.9 Administration of the State and the economic and 30 0.3 2,163 1.5 social policy of the community Provision of services to the community as a whole 22 0.2 2,082 1.5 Compulsory social security activities 1 0.0 46 0.0 Primary education 119 1.1 3,785 2.7 Secondary Education 50 0.5 2,939 2.1 Higher education 17 0.2 4,699 3.3 Adult and other education 90 0.8 446 0.3 Human health activities 225 2.1 6,942 4.9 Veterinary activities 14 0.1 134 0.1 Social work activities 295 2.7 3,775 2.6 Source: NOMIS
Table 3.19: Employment Distribution in the Transport and Communications Sector, 2008
Business Units Employees Transport and Communications Sector Number % Number % Transport and communications 543 4.9 12,917 9.1 Supporting and auxiliary transport activities; activities of travel agencies 115 1.0 4,975 3.5 Land transport; transport via pipelines 239 2.2 4,939 3.5 Post and telecommunications 179 1.6 2,946 2.1 Air transport 7 0.1 49 0.0 Water transport 3 0.0 7 0.0 Source: NOMIS
Table 3.20: Employment Distribution in the Other Services Sector, 2008
Data Units Employees Other Services Sector number % number % Other services 784 7.1 7,361 5.2 Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities 18 0.2 501 0.4 Activities of membership organisations not elsewhere classified 103 0.9 1,468 1.0 Recreational, cultural and sporting activities 290 2.6 3,885 2.7 Other service activities 373 3.4 1,507 1.1 Private households as employers of domestic staff 0 0.0 0 0.0 Undifferentiated goods producing activities of private households for 0 0.0 0 0.0 own use Undifferentiated services producing activities of private households 0 0.0 0 0.0 for own use Extra-territorial organisation and bodies 0 0.0 0 0.0 Source: NOMIS
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Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.21: Employment Distribution in Manufacturing, 2008
Data Units Employees Manufacturing Sector number % number % Manufacturing 588 5.4 11,230 7.9 Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media 118 1.1 748 0.5 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and 101 0.9 1,587 1.1 equipment Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing not elsewhere classified 63 0.6 404 0.3 Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified 48 0.4 1,180 0.8 Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches 34 0.3 985 0.7 and clocks Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 31 0.3 743 0.5 Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus not elsewhere 30 0.3 398 0.3 classified Manufacturing of food and beverages 24 0.2 2,344 1.6 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 18 0.2 336 0.2 Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and 17 0.2 631 0.4 apparatus Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, except 15 0.1 166 0.1 furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 15 0.1 364 0.3 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 13 0.1 122 0.1 Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products 12 0.1 384 0.3 Manufacture of transport equipment 9 0.1 340 0.2 Manufacture of textiles 7 0.1 41 0.0 Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur 7 0.1 75 0.1 Manufacture of office machinery and computers 7 0.1 13 0.0 Manufacture basic metals 6 0.1 200 0.1 Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, 3 0.0 44 0.0 saddlery, harness and footwear Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel 3 0.0 101 0.1 Manufacture of tobacco products 0 0.0 0 0.0 Source: NOMIS
Table 3.22: Employment Distribution in Construction, 2008
Business Units Employees Construction Sector number % number % Construction 948 8.6 3,425 2.4 Building of complete construction or parts thereof; civil engineering 352 3.2 1,893 1.3 Renting of construction or demolition equipment with operator 9 0.1 48 0.0 Site preparation 10 0.1 16 0.0 Building completion 285 2.6 578 0.4 Source: NOMIS
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Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
3.2 Enterprise and Innovation
3.2.1 Location Quotient
A LQ that is less than zero suggests that local employment is less than was expected for a given industry. Therefore, that industry is not even meeting local demand for a given good or service. However in the South East Midlands LEP area each district had a none negative LQ result in each sector.
By definition a LQ that is equal to zero suggests that the local employment is exactly sufficient to meet the local demand for a given good or service. This is the case in for Milton Keynes, Corby, Northampton and Luton in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery sector in 2008 for example.
When the LQ is greater than 1.0 local employment is greater than expected. This is the case in a number of districts with the SEM LEP area in 2008 but most significantly in Milton Keynes in the Information and Communication sector where the LQ, using England as a base, is 2.0. The highest LQ for any sector occurs in Corby at 3.0 in Manufacturing followed by South Northamptonshire in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery at 2.9.
Fig 3.11: Location Quotient by Sector, MK, 2009
Location Quotient by Sector, Milton Keynes 2009
Other service Arts & entertainment Human health and social work Education Public admin and defence; Administrative Professional, scientific and technical Real estate Financial and insurance Communication Accommodation and food Transportation and storage Wholesale and retail trade Construction Water supply Electricity & gas Manufacturing Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and fishing
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Source: NOMIS
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Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 23: Location Quotient SEM LEP area, 2009
Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity & gas supply Water Construction retail and Wholesale trade and Transportation storage and Accommodation food Communication and Financial insurance Real estate and Professional, technical Administrative and Public admin defence; Education and health Human work social Bedford 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.0 Central Bedfordshire 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.0 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.6 Dacorum 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.9 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.70.9 0.6 Luton 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.6 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 Aylesbury Vale 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 Cherwell 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.80.7 0.7 Milton Keynes 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 0.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.61.0 0.7 Corby 0.0 0.1 3.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 1.4 2.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.60.6 0.3 Daventry 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 3.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.4 Kettering 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.4 1.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.50.6 1.6 Northampton 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.7 1.0 South Northamptonshire 0.2 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 Source: NOMIS
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Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
3.2.2 Business Registrations
Table 3.24: Business Registrations by Area, 1994-2007
Milton Keynes Reading Brighton Buckinghamshire Date number % number % number % number % 1994 740 98.7 440 98.9 820 98.8 2,270 99.6 1995 710 99.3 475 102.2 845 98.8 2,170 100.5 1996 720 99.3 480 99.0 950 100.5 2,040 100.2 1997 865 99.4 560 100.9 1,120 100.4 2,240 99.6 1998 855 100.0 510 102.0 1,145 99.6 2,305 100.2 1999 805 98.8 510 100.0 1,010 99.0 2,250 99.6 2000 775 99.4 535 100.0 1,040 100.5 2,230 100.0 2001 780 99.4 455 100.0 955 100.0 2,075 100.2 2002 825 100.0 480 99.0 955 100.0 2,150 100.2 2003 845 99.4 455 98.9 1,120 100.0 2,385 100.2 2004 930 98.9 505 101.0 985 100.5 2,235 99.8 2005 885 100.0 495 99.0 1,040 100.0 2,210 99.3 2006 875 99.4 465 100.0 980 99.5 2,240 99.6 2007 1,130 100.0 625 99.2 1,075 100.0 2,375 99.8 Source: NOMIS
Figure 3.12: Top 5 Business Sector Registration, MK, South & England 1994-2007
Top 5 Sector Registrations, MK, South East & England, 1994-2007
60.0
50.0
40.0 MK South East % 30.0 England 20.0
10.0
0.0 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Real Estate Public administration
Source: NOMIS
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Table 3.25: Business Registrations by Sector, MK, South East & England, 1994-2007
Registrations England South East MK 1994 8.7 6.9 6.7 1997 7.9 6.6 5.7 2000 7.0 6.0 6.4 2004 5.4 4.8 4.3
Manufacturing Manufacturing 2007 4.9 4.2 3.1 1994 9.3 9.8 8.7 1997 10.6 11.7 9.8 2000 9.8 11.0 8.3 2004 12.1 12.6 11.7
Construction 2007 12.3 12.8 10.6 1994 23.3 21.4 18.7 1997 19.5 16.2 15.5 2000 19.3 15.6 16.0 2004 19.1 16.0 15.4 Wholesale Wholesale 2007 16.6 14.8 14.2 1994 27.6 33.8 40.0 1997 36.1 41.9 51.1 2000 37.3 42.3 48.1 2004 38.1 42.7 46.8 Real Estate 2007 44.3 48.0 55.8 1994 11.8 12.3 15.3 1997 8.3 9.3 4.6 2000 8.0 9.5 5.8
Public 2004 6.1 6.4 5.3
administration administration 2007 5.3 5.0 3.1 Source: NOMIS
3.2.2 Business Deregistration
Table 3.26: Business Deregistration by Area, 1994-2007
Milton Keynes Reading Brighton Buckinghamshire Date number % number % number % number % 1994 630 100.0 455 101.1 805 100.6 2,090 99.3 1995 575 99.1 415 98.8 745 100.0 1,935 100.8 1996 500 101.0 425 102.4 725 100.7 1,740 100.3 1997 520 99.0 385 101.3 665 100.0 1,635 100.3 1998 425 98.8 370 100.0 760 99.3 1,610 99.1 1999 610 100.8 435 100.0 815 99.4 1,695 99.4 2000 555 100.9 460 100.0 800 100.6 1,860 99.7 2001 590 98.3 380 100.0 910 98.9 1,840 100.3 2002 640 100.0 435 98.9 780 100.6 1,835 100.0 2003 610 100.0 475 100.0 880 100.0 1,925 99.7 2004 660 98.5 390 101.3 830 100.0 1,880 99.5 2005 665 100.0 460 100.0 765 100.0 1,855 101.1 2006 645 99.2 425 101.2 750 100.0 1,770 100.6 2007 670 99.3 400 100.0 770 100.0 1,800 100.8 Source: NOMIS
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Figure 3.13: Top 5 Business Sector Deregistration, MK, South & England 1994-2007
Top 5 Sector Deregistrations, MK, South East & England, 1994-2007
50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 MK
% 25.0 South East 20.0 England 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Real Estate Public administration
Source: NOMIS
Table 3.27: Business Deregistration by Sector, MK, South East & England, 1994-2007
De-registrations England South East MK 1994 8.8 7.6 9.5 1997 9.1 7.9 6.7 2000 8.7 7.4 8.2 2004 8.2 7.2 7.5
Manufacturing Manufacturing 2007 7.3 6.4 7.4 1994 14.7 16.8 14.3 1997 11.5 12.4 10.5 2000 9.3 10.1 10 2004 10.0 11.0 8.2
Construction 2007 11.1 12.1 9.6 1994 30.1 26.6 27.0 1997 27.5 24.1 22.9 2000 24.3 20.2 19.1 2004 21.7 17.5 14.9 Wholesale Wholesale 2007 20.0 16.7 14.8 1994 17.6 22.3 27.0 1997 22.0 27.8 33.3 2000 30.4 37.3 41.8 2004 33.0 39.4 45.5 Real Estate 2007 35.6 40.8 46.7 1994 10.6 11.3 11.1 1997 8.8 9.6 10.5 2000 7.9 8.8 5.5
Public 2004 7.6 8.4 7.5
administration administration 2007 7.0 7.9 5.2 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 21 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
3.2.3 Net Business Change
Table 3.28: Net Change by Area, 1994-2007
Milton Keynes Reading Brighton Buckinghamshire Date number percent number percent number percent number percent 1994 110 91.7 -15 300.0 15 50.0 180 102.9 1995 135 100.0 60 133.3 100 90.9 235 97.9 1996 220 95.7 55 78.6 225 100.0 300 100.0 1997 345 100.0 175 100.0 455 101.1 605 97.6 1998 430 101.2 140 107.7 385 100.0 695 103.0 1999 195 92.9 75 100.0 195 97.5 555 100.0 2000 220 95.7 75 100.0 240 100.0 370 101.4 2001 190 102.7 75 100.0 45 128.6 235 100.0 2002 185 100.0 45 100.0 175 97.2 315 101.6 2003 235 97.9 -20 133.3 240 100.0 460 102.2 2004 270 100.0 115 100.0 155 103.3 355 101.4 2005 220 100.0 35 87.5 275 100.0 355 91.0 2006 230 100.0 40 88.9 230 97.9 470 95.9 2007 460 101.1 225 97.8 305 100.0 575 96.6 Source: NOMIS
Figure 3.14: Top 5 Business Sector Net Change, MK, South & England 1994-2007
Net Change, MK, South East & England, 2004-2007
80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 MK
% South East 30.0 England 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007
Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Real Estate Public administration
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 22 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Table 3.29: Net Change by Sector, MK, South East & England, 1994-2007
Net Change England South East MK 2004 -7.4 -6.3 -3.7 2005 -4.8 -5.7 0.0 g 2006 -5.3 -6.1 -2.2
Manufacturin 2007 -1.1 -1.6 -3.3 2004 21.2 20.2 20.4 2005 19.6 18.9 9.1 2006 19.6 20.6 8.7
Construction 2007 15.4 14.8 12.1 2004 7.6 9.1 16.7 2005 11.2 14.6 20.5 2006 9.3 10.1 0.0
Wholesale Wholesale 2007 7.9 9.8 13.2 2004 60.6 58.3 50.0 2005 55.7 55.4 59.1 2006 57.6 55.3 65.2
Real Estate 2007 66.2 67.0 69.2 2004 -0.5 -3.0 0.0 2005 0.8 -2.2 2.3 2006 3.1 0.7 2.2 Public 2007 0.9 -2.6 0.0 administration administration Source: NOMIS
3.2.4 Registered Stock at Year End
Table 3.30: Stocks at end of year by Area, 1994-2007
Milton Keynes Reading Brighton Buckinghamshire Date number % number % number % number % 1994 5,165 100.2 3,865 100.1 6,605 100.0 20,140 100.0 1995 5,290 99.9 3,900 99.7 6,710 99.9 20,390 100.0 1996 5,510 99.8 3,975 100.0 6,945 100.1 20,690 100.0 1997 5,860 99.9 4,155 100.1 7,380 99.9 21,300 100.0 1998 6,290 100.0 4,285 100.1 7,775 100.0 21,955 100.0 1999 6,490 99.8 4,350 99.9 7,970 99.9 22,535 100.1 2000 6,735 100.1 4,425 99.9 8,205 99.9 22,890 100.0 2001 6,920 100.0 4,505 100.1 8,250 100.0 23,105 100.0 2002 7,100 99.9 4,550 100.0 8,430 100.1 23,425 100.0 2003 7,340 100.0 4,535 100.0 8,660 99.9 23,880 100.0 2004 7,610 100.0 4,650 100.1 8,810 99.9 24,230 100.0 2005 7,830 100.0 4,690 100.1 9,085 100.0 24,605 100.0 2006 8,055 99.9 4,735 100.0 9,320 100.0 25,115 100.0 2007 8,520 100.1 4,965 100.0 9,625 100.0 25,695 100.0 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 23 -
Chapter 3 Business and Enterprise
Figure 3.15: Top 5 Business Sector Stock at the end of Year MK, South & England 1994-2007
Top 5 Sectors Stocks, MK, South East & England, 1994-2007
45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 MK 25.0
% South East 20.0 8 England 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 1994 1997 2000 2004 2007 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Real Estate Public administration
Source: NOMIS Table 3.31: Stocks at the end of year by Sector, MK, South East & England, 1994-2007
Stocks England South East MK 1994 10.5 9.4 10.3 1997 10.2 9.1 9.8 2000 9.5 8.5 9.4 2004 8.5 7.6 7.7
Manufacturing Manufacturing 2007 7.7 6.9 6.6 1994 11.5 13.0 11.8 1997 10.8 12.1 10.2 2000 10.7 12.1 10 2004 11.4 12.6 10.8
Construction 2007 11.9 12.9 10.7 1994 26.1 23.3 23.6 1997 23.8 20.9 20.8 2000 22.0 19.2 18.8 2004 20.6 17.9 17.8 Wholesale Wholesale 2007 19.8 17.5 17.1 1994 21.8 27.3 30.5 1997 25.9 31.7 36.9 2000 29.3 34.8 40.3 2004 31.3 36.3 41.3
Real Estate 2007 33.3 37.8 43.9 1994 8.3 9.3 9.0 1997 8.2 9.3 7.9 2000 8.1 9.2 7.5
Public 2004 8.0 9.0 7.7
administration administration 2007 7.5 8.3 7 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 24 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance
4.1 Gross Value Added
Figure 4.1: Gross Value Added at Current Base prices, MK, 1995-2007
Gross Value Added at Current Base Prices, MK, 1995-2007 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 £ Billion 4.0 3.5 Milton Keynes 3.0 2.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: ONS
Table 4.1: GVA per Capita
MK England South East 1998 19,054 13,482 13893 1999 20,329 14,140 14706 2000 21,373 14,686 15412 2001 22,694 15,411 16276 2002 24,067 16,223 17103 2003 25,828 17,159 18057 2004 27,106 18,021 18925 2005 27,602 18,589 19475 2006 28,292 19,496 20360 2007 29,120 20,458 21248 Source: ONS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 25 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance
Table 4.2: GVA Growth Rates
Milton Keynes South East England 1999 8.7 6.7 5.3 2000 6.7 5.3 4.3 2001 7.6 6 5.4 2002 7.1 5.4 5.7 2003 8.3 6.1 6.2 2004 5.8 5.3 5.5 2005 3.1 3.7 3.9 2006 4.1 5.2 5.5 2007 4.6 5.3 5.6 2008 3.7 2.8 3.7 Source: ONS
Table 4.3: GVA the Working Age Population
Year MK England South East 1998 29377 22037 22734 1999 31265 23077 24049 2000 32706 23908 25177 2001 34577 24996 26529 2002 36551 26250 27862 2003 39230 27722 29404 2004 41167 29052 30815 2005 41885 29892 31674 2006 43002 31292 33105 2007 44459 32878 34645 Source: ONS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 26 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance
Fig 4.2: Gross Value Added in MK & Neighbouring Local Authorities, 2007
Gross Value Added, MK and Neighbouring LAs, 2007
8 7 6 5 4 3
£ (billion) £ 2 1 0 Luton Corby Bedford Daventry Kettering Kettering Central East South Northampton Bedfordshire ellingborough Mi l t on Keynes Aylesbury Vale W Northamptonshire Northamptonshire
Source: ONS
Table 4.4: Percentage change in GVA 1995-2008 (millions)
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 England 580121 658121 722972 805442 902998 991891 1083289 South East 94125 109613 123170 137641 153811 167995 181435 Milton Keynes 3149 3875 4494 5178 5935 6382 6899 Northamptonshire 6925 8388 9322 10251 11592 12799 14090 Source: ONS
Fig 4.3: Percentage change in GVA 1995-2008
Percentage change in GVA 1995-2008
12.0% England 11.0% South East 10.0% Milton Keynes 9.0% Northamptonshire 8.0%
% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ONS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 27 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance
4.2 Knowledge Based Industries
Figure 4.5: Employees in Knowledge Based Industries by Area, 2007
Area Employees Reading 41600 Milton Keynes 49200 Basingstoke and Deane 28400 Brighton and Hove 37500 Southampton 30200 Aylesbury Vale 18000 Source: NOMIS
Figure 4.6: Business Units and Employees in Knowledge Based Sector by Area, 2007
Unit Workplaces Employees Ratio Reading 3058 41600 01:13.5 Milton Keynes 4701 49200 01:10.5 Brighton and Hove 5674 28400 01:05 Southampton 2546 37500 01:14.7 Aylesbury Vale 3551 30200 01:08.5 Basingstoke and Deane 3363 18000 01:05.4 Source: NOMIS
4.3 Earnings
Figure 4.4: Gross Weekly Earnings by Area, 2004-2009
Gross Weekly Earnings by Area, 2005-2009
600.0
500.0 Luton Northamptonshire 400.0 Bedford
£ 300.0 Milton Keynes
200.0 Buckinghamshire
100.0 Central Bedfordshire
0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 28 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance
Fig 4.5: Median Resident Full Time Earnings Nationally
Gross Weekly Earnings, MK, SE and England, 2005-2009
600.0 Milton Keynes 500.0 South East 400.0 England
£ 300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: NOMIS
Table 4.7: Median Resident Full Time Earnings by Region
Area 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week Buckinghamshire 503 511 527 542 584 598 Medway 436 439 457 473 507 516 Milton Keynes 456 434 456 484 511 521 Reading 489 472 479 513 558 560 Southampton 398 394 398 423 439 442 Surrey 529 564 571 582 616 623 South East 462 469 487 502 525 537 Source: NOMIS
Figure 4.6: Median Resident Full Time Earnings by Area, 2004-2009
Median Resident Full Time Earnings by Region, 2004-2009
700 Southampton 600 Medway 500 Milton Keynes 400 Reading 300 Buckinghamshir 200 e Weekly EarningsWeekly £ Surrey 100
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 29 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance
Table 4.8: Median Resident Part Time Earnings by Region
Area 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week £/ Week Buckinghamshire 153 153 157 163 166 161 Medway 131 122 130 121 126 138 Milton Keynes 135 147 142 154 151 174 Reading 131 146 155 150 143 146 Southampton 122 120 136 144 137 144 Surrey 154 152 162 169 174 175 England 131 133 138 144 147 152 South East 141 140 142 149 150 155 Source: NOMIS
Figure 4.7: Median Resident Part Time Weekly Earnings by Area, 2004-2009
Median Resident Part Time Weekly Earnings, 2004-2009
180
160
140
120 Southampton Medw ay 100 Reading
80 Milton Keynes Buckinghamshire 60 Median Earnings £ Earnings Median Surrey
40
20
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: NOMIS
Figure 4.8: Annual Gross Salaries, Full Time Workers, MK, South East & England, 2005-2009
Annual Gross Salaries, Full Time Workers MK, SE and England 2005-2009 35,000
30,000
25,000 Milton Keynes
20,000 South East £ 15,000 England
10,000
5,000
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: NOMIS LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 30 -
Chapter 4 Economic Performance
Figure 4.9: Annual Gross Salaries, Full Time Workers by area, 2005-2009
Annual Gross Salaries, Full Time Workers, by Area, 2005 - 2009
35,000
30,000 Luton 25,000 Northamptonshire 20,000 Milton Keynes £ 15,000 Bedford Buckinghamshire 10,000 Central Bedfordshire 5,000
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: NOMIS
Table 4.9: Median Work Place Full Time Earnings Milton Keynes by Gender
Gender 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Male 526 518 512 548 556 578 Female 365 364 399 403 420 441 Source: ONS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 31 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
5.1 Milton Keynes Population
Table 5.1: Milton Keynes population 1967 – 2008
Year Urban Rural Milton Keynes Borough 1967 40,000 20,000 60,000 1968 42,000 20,000 62,000 1969 43,500 20,000 63,500 1970 45,000 20,000 65,000 1971 46,500 20,300 66,800 1972 49,000 20,300 69,300 1973 52,000 20,300 72,300 1974 57,000 20,300 77,300 1975 64,000 20,300 84,300 1976 70,500 20,300 90,800 1977 76,000 20,300 96,300 1978 81,000 20,300 101,300 1979 86,000 20,300 106,300 1980 91,000 20,300 111,300 1981 95,800 28,500 124,300 1982 103,800 28,500 132,300 1983 109,500 28,500 138,000 1984 115,500 28,500 144,000 1985 122,500 28,500 151,000 1986 128,400 28,500 156,900 1987 133,000 28,500 161,500 1988 137,300 28,500 165,800 1989 141,800 28,500 170,300 1990 143,250 28,500 171,750 1991 144,700 33,570 178,270 1992 145,800 33,870 179,670 1993 148,570 34,180 182,750 1994 151,420 34,970 186,390 1995 155,050 35,380 190,430 1996 158,590 35,720 194,310 1997 161,730 35,190 196,920 1998 164,260 35,750 200,010 1999 166,980 35,940 202,920 2000 169,370 36,000 205,370 2001 177,500 35,210 212,710 2002 179,540 35,400 214,940 2003 181,410 35,460 216,870 2004 183,230 35,500 218,730 2005 185,780 35,620 221,400 2006 188,840 35,920 224,760 2007 192,250 36,200 228,450 2008 195,687 36,498 232,185 Source: MKi Observatory
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 32 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.2: SEM LEP Population age, 2009
Age Total Aged 16 - 64 % Working Age Central Bedfordshire 252,900 165,200 65.3% Milton Keynes 236,700 159,300 67.3% Northampton 210,500 141,400 67.2% Luton 194,300 127,300 65.5% Aylesbury Vale 173,500 112,300 64.7% Bedford 158,000 102,600 64.9% Dacorum 141,600 91,300 64.5% Cherwell 139,200 90,700 65.2% Kettering 90,100 57,900 64.3% South Northamptonshire 88,500 57,000 64.4% Daventry 78,900 51,100 64.8% Corby 55,200 35,300 63.9% Source: NOMIS Table 5.3: Population projections by Region 2008 - 2033
Year MK South East England Year MK South East England 2009 236,100 8,430,600 51,817,100 2022 277,900 9,320,000 56,822,500 2010 239,500 8,497,500 52,198,200 2023 280,700 9,391,300 57,208,500 2011 242,800 8,564,000 52,577,100 2024 283,500 9,462,100 57,589,700 2012 246,200 8,630,000 52,954,000 2025 286,200 9,531,900 57,965,100 2013 249,500 8,695,900 53,332,000 2026 288,800 9,600,600 58,334,100 2014 252,800 8,762,000 53,709,900 2027 291,200 9,668,100 58,696,200 2015 256,000 8,828,300 54,087,900 2028 293,700 9,734,300 59,051,100 2016 259,200 8,896,000 54,471,600 2029 296,100 9,799,400 59,398,400 2017 262,400 8,964,800 54,860,200 2030 298,500 9,863,100 59,738,300 2018 265,600 9,034,500 55,252,200 2031 300,800 9,925,600 60,070,700 2019 268,800 9,105,100 55,645,900 2032 303,100 9,986,800 60,396,200 2020 271,900 9,176,500 56,039,900 2033 305,300 10,046,700 60,715,200 2021 275,000 9,248,300 56,432,500 Source: MKi Observatory
Fig 5.1: Milton Keynes Population Change 1967 – 2031
MK Population Change, Key Years
350000
300000
250000
200000
Population 150000
100000
50000 1967 1991 2001 2008 2021 2026 Year
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 33 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.4: Growth Rate by Region 2008 - 2033
Growth Rate Milton Keynes South East England Average Growth Rate 2009-2033 29.3% 19.2% 17.2% Annual Average Growth Rate 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% Source: MKi Observatory
Fig 5.2: Milton Keynes population projections 2008 - 2033
Projected Population Growth, MK, 2009-2026
310000 300000 290000 280000 270000 260000
Population 250000 240000 230000 220000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Year
Source: MKi Observatory
Table 5.5: Population Distribution by Age, Milton Keynes 2008
Age Total Aged under 1 year 3,700 Aged 1 - 4 years 13,400 Aged 5 - 9 years 14,800 Aged 10 - 14 years 14,900 Aged 15 - 19 years 15,000 Aged 20 - 24 years 14,600 Aged 25 - 29 years 16,000 Aged 30 - 34 years 17,300 Aged 35 - 39 years 19,500 Aged 40 - 44 years 19,300 Aged 45 - 49 years 17,100 Aged 50 - 54 years 15,300 Aged 55 - 59 years 14,000 Aged 60 - 64 years 11,900 Aged 65 - 69 years 7,800 Aged 70 - 74 years 5,900 Aged 75 - 79 years 4,700 Aged 80 - 84 years 3,500 Aged 85 and over 3,300 Source: MKi Observatory
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 34 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.6: Population Distribution MK, South East & England by Age 2008
Milton Keynes South East England Age number % number % number % Total 232,200 100.0 8,380,100 100.0 51,446,200 100.0 0-14 years 46,800 20.2 1,483,000 17.7 9,033,300 17.6 15-64 years 160,100 68.9 5,494,500 65.6 34,127,800 66.3 65 years 25,300 10.9 1,402,600 16.7 8,285,200 16.1 Source: MKi Observatory
Table 5.3: Population Distribution MK, South East & England by Age 2008
Population by Age Group, MK, South East & England, 2008
England 0-14 years
15-64 years South East 65 years
Milton Keynes
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: MKi Observatory
Table 5.7: Dependency Ratio 2008
Milton Keynes South East England Dependency Ratio 2.2:1 1.9:1 2:1
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 35 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.8: Population projections by Region 2008 - 2033
Year MK South East England Year MK South East England 2009 236,100 8,430,600 51,817,100 2022 277,900 9,320,000 56,822,500 2010 239,500 8,497,500 52,198,200 2023 280,700 9,391,300 57,208,500 2011 242,800 8,564,000 52,577,100 2024 283,500 9,462,100 57,589,700 2012 246,200 8,630,000 52,954,000 2025 286,200 9,531,900 57,965,100 2013 249,500 8,695,900 53,332,000 2026 288,800 9,600,600 58,334,100 2014 252,800 8,762,000 53,709,900 2027 291,200 9,668,100 58,696,200 2015 256,000 8,828,300 54,087,900 2028 293,700 9,734,300 59,051,100 2016 259,200 8,896,000 54,471,600 2029 296,100 9,799,400 59,398,400 2017 262,400 8,964,800 54,860,200 2030 298,500 9,863,100 59,738,300 2018 265,600 9,034,500 55,252,200 2031 300,800 9,925,600 60,070,700 2019 268,800 9,105,100 55,645,900 2032 303,100 9,986,800 60,396,200 2020 271,900 9,176,500 56,039,900 2033 305,300 10,046,700 60,715,200 2021 275,000 9,248,300 56,432,500 Source: MKi Observatory
Table 5.9: Growth Rate by Region 2008 - 2033
Growth Rate Milton Keynes South East England Average Growth Rate 2009-2033 29.3% 19.2% 17.2% Annual Average Growth Rate 1.2% 0.8% 0.7%
Table 5.10: Population Milton Keynes by Ethnicity 2007
Ethnicity Milton Keynes All Groups 228400 White 197600 Mixed 5200 Asian 12300 Black 9100 Chinese or Other 4300 Source: MKi Observatory
Table 5.11: Percentage change in population by ethnicity 2001- 2007
Asian/ Asian Black/ Black Chinese/ % Change White Mixed British British Others Milton Keynes 31% 8% 28% 25% 8% South East Region 9% 14% 34% 25% 18% England 11% 13% 38% 18% 20% Source: MKi Observatory
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 36 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Figure 5.4: Percentage Change in Ethnicity, MK South East and England, 2001-2007
% Change in Population by Ethnicity, MK, South East & England, 2001-2007
40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% Milton Keynes 20.0% South East 15.0% England 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% White Mixed Asian Black Chinese or Other
5.1.1 Population by Ward
Table 5.12: Population by Ward, MK 2018
Year 2008 2010 2014 2018 Ward Number Number Number Number Milton Keynes 232,200 236,550 245,100 264,500 Sherington 4,000 4,000 3,950 3,800 Danesborough 4,000 4,050 4,400 6,800 Hanslope Park 4,200 4,350 5,350 6,150 Middleton 6,600 7,450 11,250 15,350 Newport Pagnell North 7,900 7,900 7,800 7,550 Newport Pagnell South 7,950 8,000 7,900 7,800 Denbigh 8,350 8,450 8,300 8,250 Olney 8,500 8,550 8,500 8,250 Eaton Manor 9,200 9,400 9,750 10,750 Furzton 9,250 9,350 9,200 8,950 Linford North 9,400 9,450 9,300 9,200 Whaddon 9,400 9,450 9,350 9,250 Linford South 9,600 9,700 10,400 11,950 Stantonbury 10,000 10,100 9,950 9900 Woughton 11,600 11,700 11,550 11,250 Bletchley and Fenny Stratford 11,900 12,300 13,500 14,150 Emerson Valley 12,900 13,150 14,000 15,900 Stony Stratford 12,950 13,100 13,500 16,650 Loughton Park 14,050 14,350 15,500 17,950 Bradwell 14,100 14,200 13,850 13,550 Campbell Park 15,200 15,450 15,400 18,600 Wolverton 15,400 16,200 16,450 16,700 Walton Park 15,700 15,900 16,000 15,750
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 37 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.5: MK population by Ward, 2008
Population by Ward, MK, 2008
Walton Park Wolverton Campbell Park Bradwell Loughton Park Stony Stratford Emerson Valley Bletchley and Fenny Woughton Stantonbury Linford South Whaddon Linford North Furzton Eaton Manor Olney Denbigh Newport Pagnell Newport Pagnell North Middleton Hanslope Park Danesborough Sherington
0246810121416 Thousands
Population
Source: MKI Observatory
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 38 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Figure 5.6: Population Projection by Ward, MK, 2010-2018
Population Projections by Ward, MK, 2010-2018
Walton Park Wolverton Campbell Park Bradwell Loughton Park Stony Stratford Emerson Valley Bletchley and Fenny 2018 Woughton Stantonbury 2014 Linford South Whaddon Linford North 2010 Furzton Eaton Manor Olney Denbigh Newport Pagnell Newport Pagnell North Middleton Hanslope Park Danesborough Sherington
0 2 4 6 8 101214161820 Thousands
Population
Source: MKI Observatory
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 39 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
5.2 The MK Labour Market
5.2.1 Working Age Population in MK
Table 5.13: Change in Working Age Population, 1998 – 2008
Date Milton Keynes South East England 1998 131,600 4,820,800 29,868,100 1999 134,400 4,864,500 30,043,800 2000 137,100 4,891,400 30,242,700 2001 139,600 4,922,300 30,486,700 2002 141,500 4,939,700 30,686,000 2003 142,800 4,966,200 30,866,500 2004 144,000 4,990,200 31,083,100 2005 145,900 5,032,400 31,383,500 2006 147,900 5,066,300 31,626,700 2007 149,600 5,095,700 31,791,700 2008 151,100 5,123,500 31,937,600 Source: NOMIS
Table 5.14: Full time Employees by Sector MK 2006-2008
Sector (%) 2006 2007 2008 Agriculture and fishing 0 0 0 Energy and water 0 0 0 Manufacturing 12 11 10 Construction 3 3 3 Distribution, hotels and restaurants 23 23 23 Transport and communications 11 11 11 Banking, finance and insurance 32 32 34 Public administration, education & health 15 16 15 Other services 4 5 5 Source: NOMIS Fig 5.7: Full Time Employees by Sector MK 2006-2008
Full Time Employees by Sector, MK, 2006-2008
Other services Public administration, education & health 2008 Banking, finance and insurance
Transport and communications 2007 Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants Construction 2006 Manufacturing Energy and water Agriculture and fishing
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 %
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 40 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.15: Part Time Employees by Sector MK 2006-2008
Sector (%) 2006 2007 2008 Agriculture and fishing 0 0 0 Energy and water 0 0 0 Manufacturing 3 3 3 Construction 1 1 1 Distribution, hotels and restaurants 41 36 36 Transport and communications 3 3 3 Banking, finance and insurance 20 21 20 Public administration, education & health 25 30 30 Other services 6 6 7 Source: NOMIS Fig 5.8: Part Time Employees by Sector MK 2006-2008
Part Time Employees by Sector, MK. 2006-2008
Other services Public administration, education & health 2008 Banking, finance and insurance Transport and communications 2007 Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants Construction 2006 Manufacturing Energy and water Agriculture and fishing
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 %
Fig 5.9: Full & Part Time Employees by Sector MK 2008
Full & Part Time Employment by Sector, MK, 2008
40 35 Full Time 30 Part Time 25
% 20 15 10 5 0 water health Public fishing Energy and Energy and Hotels Distribution, Restaurants Construction education & Manufacturing Other services Other administration, Transport and Transport Agriculture andAgriculture and insurance communications Banking, finance Banking,
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 41 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.16: Percentage Change in Full Time Employees, MK South East & England, 2001-2008
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Milton Keynes 0% 1% 5% -2% 0% 5% 2% South East 0% -2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% England -1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% Source: NOMIS
Fig 5.10: Percentage Change in Full Time Employees, Mk South East & England, 2001-2008
Percentage Change in Full Time Employees, MK, South East & England, 2001-2008
6% 5% 4% 3% Milton Keynes 2%
% South East 1%
0% England 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -1% -2% -3%
Source: NOMIS
Table 5.17: Percentage Change in Part Time Employees, MK South East & England, 2001-2008
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Milton Keynes 0% -2% -2% 3% -4% 6% 4% South East 2% 1% 1% 1% -9% 2% 1% England 3% 2% 2% 1% -4% 0% 1% Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 42 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.11: Percentage Change in Part Time Employees, Mk South East & England, 2001-2008
Percentage Change in Part Time Employees, MK, South East & England, 2001-2008
8% 6% 4% Milton Keynes 2%
0% South East
% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -2% -4% England -6% -8% -10%
Source: NOMIS
5.2.2 Self Employment
Table 5.18: Self Employment MK, South East and England 2004-2009
Milton Keynes England South East % Number % Number % Number 2004 10.1 12,000 12.8 3,047,000 13.8 562,900 2005 9.7 11,600 13.1 3,151,700 14.1 578,800 2006 10.5 12,400 13.2 3,196,900 13.9 571,100 2007 8.3 10,400 13.3 3,256,500 14.4 599,500 2008 8.7 11,000 13.1 3,220,100 13.8 577,600 2009 8.8 10,600 13.5 3,267,300 14.4 595,300 Source: NOMIS
Table 5.19: Self Employment by Area 2004-2009
Aylesbury Central Kettering Northampton MK Bedford Luton Vale Bedfordshire 2004 12 11 14 10 13 13 12 2005 12 13 15 10 16 14 13 2006 11 8 14 11 13 18 15 2007 9 11 19 8 15 16 11 2008 8 9 18 9 9 14 13 2009 8 11 19 9 12 16 16 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 43 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.12: Self Employment by Area 2004-2009
Self-employment by Area, 2005-2009 20 18 16 14 12 2005
% 10 8 2009 6 4 2 0 Luton Milton Vale Keynes Bedford England Kettering Aylesbury Central South East Bedfordshire Northampton
Table 5.20: Self Employment by Gender MK, South East & England 2004-2009
Milton Keynes England South East Male Female Male Female Male Female 2004 13 6 17 8 19 8 2005 14 5 18 8 19 9 2006 14 6 18 8 18 9 2007 12 4 18 8 19 10 2008 14 3 18 8 18 9 2009 13 4 18 8 18 10 Source: NOMIS
Fig 5.13: Self Employment by Gender MK, South East & England 2004-2009
Self-employment by Gender, MK, South East & England, 2002-2009
20 18 16 2005 14 12
% 10 2007 8 6 4 2009 2 0 Male Female Male Female Male Female
Milton Keynes England South East
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 44 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
5.2.3 Occupational Structure
Table 5.21: Occupational Structure, MK, South East & England 2004
2004 Occupation MK South East England No: % No: % No: % Managers and Senior Officials 17600 16% 460,800 15% 2687200 15% Professional 14200 13% 450,900 15% 2497400 14% Associate Prof & Tech 15600 14% 469,700 16% 2802300 16% Administrative and Secretarial 16700 15% 415,600 14% 2534000 14% Skilled Trades 3700 3% 147,700 5% 831400 5% Personal Service 7400 7% 307,800 10% 1759700 10% Sales and Customer Service 12800 12% 274,300 9% 1681200 9% Process, Plant and Machine 3700 3% 115,500 4% 840200 5% Elementary 16400 15% 348,100 12% 2181600 12% Source: NOMIS
Fig 5.14: Occupational Structure, MK, South East & England 2009-2010
Workplace Occupational Structure, 2009-2010
Elementary
Process, Plant and Machine South East Sales and Customer Service England Personal Service Milton Keynes Skilled Trades Administrative and Secretarial Associate Prof & Tech Professional Managers and Senior
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Table 5.22: Occupational Structure, MK, South East & England 2008
Occupation MK South East England No: % No: % No: % Managers and Senior Officials 24900 18% 508500 16% 2981600 16% Professional 16900 13% 489200 16% 2723700 14% Associate Prof & Tech 20300 15% 521500 17% 3122500 17% Administrative and Secretarial 19200 14% 375400 12% 2386400 13% Skilled Trades 4300 3% 137800 4% 811800 4% Personal Service 11100 8% 312400 10% 1939100 10% Sales and Customer Service 16400 12% 291500 9% 1744500 9% Process, Plant and Machine 5100 4% 127900 4% 915700 5% Elementary 16500 12% 369500 12% 2285400 12% Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 45 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.15: Occupational Structure, MK, South East & England 2009/10
Workplace Occupational Structure, 2009-2010
20% Milton Keynes 18% England 16% 14% South East 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Skilled Trades Service Service Personal and Machine Service Service Process, Plant and Customer Sales and Managers Associate and Senior Elementary Prof & Tech & Tech Prof Secretarial Professional Administrative
Source: NOMIS
Fig 5.16: Occupational Structure, MK, South East & England 2004 & 2008
Workplace Occupational Structure, MK, South East & England, 2004-2010 Managers and Senior Professional 25.0% Associate Prof & Tech 20.0% Administrative and 15.0% Secretarial Skilled Trades 10.0% Personal Service 5.0% Sales and Customer 0.0% Service Milton England South East Milton England South East Process, Plant and Keynes Keynes Machine Elementary Apr 2004-Mar 2005 Apr 2009-Mar 2010
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 46 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
5.3 Job Vacancies in Milton Keynes
Figure 5.17: Job Vacancy by Industry, MK, January 2009 to August 2010
Job Vancancies by Sector, MK 2009-2010 Energy & Water
80.0 Manufacturing 70.0 Construction 60.0
50.0 Distribution
% 40.0 Transport & Communications
30.0 Banking, Finance & Insurance 20.0 Public Admin, Education & 10.0 Health 0.0 Other Services Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Source: NOMIS
5.4 Learning and Skills
5.4.1 Qualifications
Table 5.23: Working Age Percentage Qualifications by Region 2005
Other Area NVQ4+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ NVQ1+ No qualifications qualifications Milton Keynes 26.7 43.0 63.3 81.5 7.3 11.2 Aylesbury Vale 28.7 48.6 73.2 86.5 5.1 8.4 Kettering 21.2 42.7 64.4 81.4 7.3 11.2 Northampton 24.0 40.1 60.1 75.9 6.6 17.5 Bedford 25.1 42.7 59.1 78.1 7.8 14.1 Central Bedfordshire 26.5 46.8 69.6 86.1 5.1 8.8 Luton 20.4 38.9 55.9 71.0 10.8 18.2 Milton Keynes 26.7 43.0 63.3 81.5 7.3 11.2 England 26.3 44.1 62.7 77.3 8.7 14.0 South East 29.4 48.6 67.5 82.5 7.4 10.1 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 47 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.18: Working Age Percentage Qualifications by Region 2005
Qualifications Working Age Population by Area, 2005
100.0 Luton 90.0 80.0 Northampton 70.0 60.0 Bedford
% 50.0 40.0 Kettering 30.0 20.0 Milton Keynes 10.0 Central Bedfordshire 0.0 Aylesbury Vale NVQ4+ NVQ1+ no NVQ3+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ other qualifications qualifications
Fig 5.19: Working Age Percentage Qualifications by Region 2009
Qualifications Working Age Population by Area, 2009 100.0 90.0 Luton 80.0 70.0 Kettering 60.0 Northampton
50.0% Bedford 40.0 30.0 Milton Keynes 20.0 Central Bedfordshire 10.0 Aylesbury Vale 0.0 NVQ4+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ NVQ1+ no other
qualifications qualifications
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 48 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Figure 5.20: Qualifications Working Age Population, MK South East & England, 2008
Qualifications Working Age Population, MK, South East & England, 2008 90.0 80.0 England 70.0 60.0 South East 50.0 Milton Keynes % 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 NVQ4+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ NVQ1+ no other
qualifications qualifications Source: NOMIS
Table 5.24: Working Age Percentage Qualification levels, MK, South East and England, 2009
Other No NVQ4+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ NVQ1+ qualifications qualifications England 29.6 48.9 65.0 79.0 9.0 12.1 South East 32.6 52.6 69.0 83.0 7.8 9.1 Milton Keynes 33.7 50.3 66.6 81.7 9.0 9.3 Source: NOMIS
Key Stage 2
Table 5.25: Average Key Stage 2 Point Score MK, South East & England 2009
English Mathematics Science Key Stage 2 Boy Girl All Boy Girl All Boy Girl All Boy Girl All South 26.7 28.3 27.5 27.7 27.4 27.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.7 28.2 28.0 East Milton 26.4 28.0 27.2 27.6 27.1 27.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 27.5 27.9 27.7 Keynes England 26.5 28.1 27.3 27.7 27.4 27.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 27.6 28.1 27.9 Source: ONS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 49 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.21: Average Key Stage 2 Point Score MK, South East & England 2009
Key Stage 2 Average Point Score, MK, South East and England, 2009 29.5 29.0 28.5 Milton Keynes 28.0 27.5 South East 27.0 England 26.5
Average Point Score Point Average 26.0 25.5 25.0 Boys Girls All Boys Girls All Boys Girls All Boys Girls All
English Mathematics Science Key Stage 2
Table 5.26: Level 4 attainment in Key Stage 2 by Gender MK and South East, 2009
English Mathematics Science % Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total South East 76 86 81 79 78 78 88 89 89 Milton Keynes 75 83 79 79 76 78 88 87 87 Source: ONS
Fig 5.22: Level 4 attainment in Key Stage 2 by Gender MK and South East, 2009
Level 4 attainment in Key Stage 2 by Gender, MK and South East, 2009
90
85
80 Milton Keynes % 75 South East
70
65 Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total
English Mathematics Science
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 50 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.27: Percentage Achievement at Level 4 or above, MK, South East & England, 2008-2009
English Mathematics Science % 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 South East 81.7 80.3 78.4 78.1 88.3 88.3 Milton Keynes 81 79 79 78 89 87 Source: ONS
Fig 5.23: Percentage Achievement at Level 4 or above, MK, South East & England, 2008-2009
Achieved Level 4 or above by subject, MK and South East, 2008-2009
90 88 86 84 82 Milton Keynes % 80 South East 78 76 74 72 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009
English Mathematics Science
Table 5.28: Key Stage 2 Results by Area 2008/2009
% English Mathematics Science Milton Keynes 79 78 87 Luton 77 75 85 Bedford 76 75 84 Central Bedfordshire 82 79 91 Buckinghamshire 85 82 92 Northamptonshire 81 77 89
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Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.24: Key Stage 2 Results by Area 2008/2009
Key Stage 2 Results Level 4 or above by Area, 2008-2009
100 90 Bedford 80 70 Luton 60 Milton Keynes
% 50 40 Northamptonshire 30 Central Bedfordshire 20 Buckinghamshire 10 0 English Mathematics Science
GCSE
Table 5.29: 5+A*-C grades in GCSE, MK and South East 2004-2009
% 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 South East 57.9 59.8 62.0 66.0 70.1 Milton Keynes 51.6 49.9 52.1 62.2 69.5 Source: DCSF
Fig 5.25: 5+A*-C grades in GCSE, MK and South East 2004-2009
5+ A*- C grades in GCSE and equivalent results by end of Key Stage 4, MK and South East, 2004-2009 75.0
70.0
South East 65.0
Milton
% 60.0 Keynes
55.0
50.0
45.0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 52 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.30: GCSE A*-C grades including Maths and English (%) by Gender, MK and South East 2004-2009
% 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 South East 46.5 47.9 49.4 51.7 53.7 Milton Keynes 39.8 38.7 39.6 42.1 48.0 Source: DCSF
Table 5.26: GCSE A*-C grades including Maths and English, MK and South East
5+ A*- C grades including England and Maths in GCSEs, MK and South East, 2004-2010 55.0 53.0 51.0 49.0 South East 47.0 % 45.0 Milton Keynes 43.0 41.0 39.0 37.0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Table 5.31: GCSE Results (%) by Gender, MK and South East 2008/2009
5+ A*-C inc. English & mathematics % 5+A*-C grades GCSEs Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total South East 66.4 74.0 70.1 50.2 57.3 53.7 Milton Keynes 67.9 71.3 69.5 45.1 51.0 48.0 Source: DCSF
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 53 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.27: GCSE A*-C Results (%) by Gender, MK and South East 2008/2009
5+ A*- C grades in GCSE and equivalent results by Gender, MK and South East, 2008/2009
76.0
74.0
72.0 Milton Keynes 70.0
% South East 68.0
66.0
64.0
62.0 Boys Girls
Fig 5.28: GCSE A*-C grades including Maths and English (%) by Gender, MK and South East 2008/2009
5+ A*- C grades including Maths and English in GCSE and equivalent by Gender, MK and South East, 2008/2009
70.0
60.0
50.0 Milton Keynes 40.0 % 30.0 South East
20.0
10.0
0.0 Boys Girls
Table 5.32: Any pass grade at GCSE by Gender 2008/2009
% Boys Girls Total South East 98.7 99.0 98.9 Milton Keynes 99.0 99.4 99.2 Source: DCSF
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 54 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.29: Any pass grade at GCSE by Gender 2008/2009
Any Pass Grade at end of Key Stage 4, MK and South East, 2008/2009
99.6
99.4
99.2 Milton Keynes 99.0 South East % 98.8
98.6
98.4
98.2 Boys Girls Total
Table 5.33: GCSE Grades by Area 2008/2009
5+A*-C grades (%) 5+ A*-C inc. English & mathematics GCSEs (%) Milton Keynes 69.5 48 Northamptonshire 66 48.9 Buckinghamshire 75.5 65.4 Luton 69 46.2 Bedford 67.8 48.1 Central Bedfordshire 66.5 50
Fig 5.30: GCSE Grades by Area 2008/2009
GCSE Results by Area, 2008-2009
80 70 Northamptonshire 60 Central Bedfordshire
50 Bedford
% 40 Luton 30 Milton Keynes 20 Buckinghamshire 10 0 5+A*-C grades 5+ A*-C inc. English & mathematics GCSEs
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 55 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
A Levels
Table 5.34: Percentage of candidates achieving 2 or more passes of A Level equivalent size 2008/9
% Males Females Kent 90.3 92.4 Milton Keynes 97.8 99.6 Portsmouth 94.2 95.4 Reading 97.9 96.1 Slough 89.4 96.6 Southampton 89.1 92.6 Source: DCSF
Fig 5.31: Percentage of candidates achieving 2 or more passes of A Level equivalent size 2008/9
Candidates achieving 2 or more passes of A Level equivalent by Area, 2008/2009
Southampton Males Slough Females Reading Total Portsmouth
Milton Keynes
Kent
82.0 84.0 86.0 88.0 90.0 92.0 94.0 96.0 98.0 100.0 %
Table 5.35: Average Point Score Level 3 Qualifications by Area, 2008/9
Average Point Score Males Females Total Milton Keynes 719 739 730 Buckinghamshire 797 784 790 South East 710 754 733 England 720 756 739 Source: DCSF
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 56 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.32: Average Point Score Level 3 Qualifications by Area, 2008/9
Average Point Score by students achieveing all Level 3 qualifications. 2008/2009 800
780
760 Males 740 Females 720 Total 700 average point score 680
660 Milton Keynes Buckinghamshire South East England
Table 5.36: 2+ Passes in A Levels by Area, 2008/9
% Males Females Total Milton Keynes 98 100 99 Buckinghamshire 97 97 97 South East 94 96 95 England 94 96 95 Source: DCSF
Fig 5.33: 2+ Passes in A Levels by Area, 2008/9
Achieved 2 or more passes at A Levels or equivalent, 2008/2009
100
98
Males 96 Females %
94 Total
92
90 Milton Keynes Buckinghamshire South East England
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 57 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.37: Average point score and achievement of candidates in Level 3 qualifications, 2008/9
Average point score per Percentage of candidates achieving 2 or Area candidate more passes of A Level equivalent size
Northamptonshire 660.8 89.3 Bedford 697.5 94.4 Central Bedfordshire 741.1 95.1 Luton 653.6 95.2 Buckinghamshire 790.1 97.1 Milton Keynes 730 98.8 Source: DCSF
Fig 5.34: Average QCA point score by students achieving all Level 3 qualifications, 2008/9
A-level Average point score per candidate by Area, 2008/2009
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Average Point Score Point Average 0 Luton Bedford Central Bedfordshire Milton Keynes Milton Buckinghamshire
Table 5.35: 2+ passes at a level or equivalent, 2008-2009
% of candidates achieving 2+ passes of A Level equivalent size by Area, 2008-2009
100
99
98
% 97
96
95
94 Bedford Central Luton Buckinghamshire Milton Keynes Bedfordshire
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 58 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.38: Average Point Score 16-18 year olds achieving all Level 3 Qualifications, 2008/2009
Area Males Females Total Kent 689.4 733.7 713 Milton Keynes 719.4 738.5 730 Portsmouth 670.2 719.8 698 Reading 836.7 874.5 854 Slough 685.0 731.9 710 Southampton 624.1 692.7 659 Source: DCSF
Fig 5.36: Average Point Score 16-18 year olds achieving all Level 3 Qualifications, 2008/2009
Average Point Score of 16-18 year old Students Achieving all Level 3 Qualifications by Area, 2008/2009
Southampton
Slough
Reading
Portsmouth
Milton Keynes
Kent
650 670 690 710 730 750 770 790 810 830 850 870 Average Point Score
Qualifications by Ward
Figures are as a percentage of the working age population.
Table 5.39: 10 highest Literacy and Numeracy attainment scores by Ward, MK 2005
Ward Literacy Level 1 Literacy Level 2 Numeracy Level 1 Numeracy Level 2 Danesborough 37.45 55.22 31.4 31.76 Emerson Valley 42.97 52.88 29.48 29.64 Furzton 47.24 46.32 32.62 22.7 Hanslope Park 45.53 49.03 33.69 26.36 Linford North 46.48 47.19 33.07 23.47 Linford South 46.32 46.93 32.62 22.5 Loughton Park 39.65 53 31.51 26.7 Middleton 38.88 55.03 32.22 29.47 Newport Pagnell North 47.41 46.23 32.38 23.05 Newport Pagnell South 46.29 48.18 33.07 25.21 Olney 36.55 57.86 32.97 32.77 Sherington 39.87 54.28 35.94 30.69 Walton Park 34.74 59.59 29.79 31.48 Source: Skills for Life Survey LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 59 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.37: 10 highest Literacy attainment scores by Ward, MK 2005
Highest Literacy Achievement by Ward
70 60 50 40 Literacy Level 1 % 30 Literacy Level 2 20 10 0 Olney Park Valley Furzton Emerson Hanslope Middleton Sherington Newport Newport Walton Park Linford North Linford South Pagnell North Pagnell South Pagnell Loughton Park Danesborough
Fig 5.38: 10 highest Literacy attainment scores by Ward, MK 2005
Highest Numeracy Achievement By Ward 40 35 30 25 Numeracy Level 1 % 20 15 Numeracy Level 2 10 5 0 Olney Park Valley Furzton Emerson Hanslope Middleton Sherington Newport Newport Walton Park Linford North Linford South Pagnell North Pagnell South Pagnell Loughton Park Danesborough
Table 5.40: Lowest Literacy and Numeracy attainment scores by Ward, MK 2005
Ward Literacy Level 1 Literacy Level 2 Numeracy Level 1 Numeracy Level 2 Bradwell 48.9 42.46 30.22 18.54 Campbell Park 47.92 37.98 27.75 14.63 Denbigh 50.47 39.76 27.71 16.46 Eaton Manor 49.77 29.8 21.91 9.31 Stantonbury 48.95 42.69 30.31 18.84 Bletchley and Fenny Stratford 49.29 41.44 28.59 17.64 Stony Stratford 47.65 44.92 31.39 21.12 Whaddon 49.4 42.57 30.06 19.25 Wolverton 48.5 37.9 27.54 14.76 Woughton 44.68 29.5 25.19 6.72
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 60 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.39: Lowest Literacy attainment scores by Ward, MK 2005
Top 10 Unemployment Wards by Literacy Achievement 60
50
40
% 30 Literacy Level 1 Literacy Level 2 20
10
0 Eaton Manor Park Stony Denbigh Bradwell Stratford Campbell Stratford Whaddon Bletchley Wolverton Woughton and Fenny Stantonbury
Fig 5.40: Lowest Numeracy attainment scores by Ward, MK 2005
Top 10 Unemployment Wards by Numeracy Achievement 35 30 25 20 Numeracy Level 1 % 15 Numeracy Level 2 10 5 0 Stony Denbigh Bradwell Stratford Wolverton Stantonbury
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 61 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Table 5.41: Top 5 and Lowest 5 Wards achieving Literacy Level 2 Results, MK, 2005
Ward Literacy Level 2 Result Woughton 29.5 Eaton Manor 29.8 Wolverton 37.9 Campbell Park 37.98 Denbigh 39.76 Emerson Valley 52.88 Middleton 55.03 Danesborough 55.22 Olney 57.86 Walton Park 59.59
Fig 5.41: Top 5 and Lowest 5 Wards achieving Literacy Level 2 Results, MK, 2005
Literacy Level 2 Results by Ward, MK, 2005
70 60 50 40 % 30 20 10 0 Olney Park Valley Denbigh Emerson Campbell Middleton Wolverton Woughton Walton Park Eaton Manor Eaton Danesborough
Table 5.42: Top 5 and Lowest 5 Wards achieving Numeracy Level 2 Results, MK, 2005
Ward Numeracy Level 2 Result Woughton 6.72 Eaton Manor 9.31 Wolverton 14.76 Campbell Park 14.63 Denbigh 16.46 Emerson Valley 29.64 Sherington 30.69 Danesborough 31.76 Walton Park 31.48 Olney 32.77
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 62 -
Chapter 5 People and Communities
Fig 5.42: Top 5 and Lowest 5 Wards achieving Literacy Level 2 Results, MK, 2005
Numeracy Level 2 Results by Ward, MK, 2005 35 30 25 20 % 15 10 5 0 Olney Park Valley Denbigh Emerson Campbell Wolverton Woughton Sherington Walton Park Eaton Manor Eaton Danesborough
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 63 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
6.1 Unemployment
Table 6.1: Unemployment Rates (Claimants) MK, South East & UK, 1992-2010
Date Milton Keynes South East UK May 1992 7.3 6.1 7.7 May 1993 8.0 6.8 8.3 May 1994 6.8 5.9 7.5 May 1995 5.1 4.8 6.5 May 1996 4.1 4.3 6.0 May 1997 2.9 2.9 4.5 May 1998 2.0 2.2 3.8 May 1999 1.8 2.0 3.5 May 2000 1.6 1.6 3.1 May 2001 1.4 1.3 2.7 May 2002 1.7 1.4 2.6 May 2003 1.9 1.6 2.6 May 2004 1.9 1.4 2.3 May 2005 1.9 1.4 2.3 May 2006 2.2 1.7 2.6 May 2007 2.1 1.5 2.3 May 2008 2.2 1.3 2.2 May 2009 4.8 3.0 4.1 May 2010 4.4 2.8 3.9 Source: NOMIS
Table 6.2: Urban and Rural Unemployment, MK, 2004-2010
Date Rural MK Urban MK number rate number rate Dec 04 182 0.8 2,100 1.7 Dec 05 179 0.8 2,330 1.9 Dec 06 201 0.9 2,764 2.2 Dec 07 152 0.7 2,564 2.0 Dec 08 356 1.6 4,117 3.3 Dec 09 556 2.4 6,264 4.9 May 10 483 2.1 6,237 4.9 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 64 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 3: Working Age Unemployment Rate SEM LEP Area, 2005-2010
Apr 2004- Apr 2005- Apr 2006- Apr 2007- Apr 2008- Apr 2009- District / Year Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Bedford 3.4 2.3 5.2 3.9 8.4 5.8 Central Bedfordshire 2.5 4.1 5.8 2.8 4.5 6.1 Dacorum 3.5 1.2 5.3 2.8 5.1 6.9 Luton 6.8 7.5 9.2 8.0 10.6 9.8 Corby 3.6 7.1 7.2 5.6 6.1 6.0 Daventry 4.3 ! ! 6.5 5.8 4.6 Kettering 2.9 2.9 5.6 3.8 8.7 6.5 Northampton 3.1 4.9 3.5 3.9 6.4 9.6 South Northamptonshire 3.2 ! 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.7 Aylesbury Vale 2.9 3.7 2.8 1.7 4.4 6.8 Cherwell 2.2 3.8 2.1 5.7 2.4 4.6 Milton Keynes 5.2 5.6 5.5 3.4 4.8 9.2 Source: NOMIS
6.1.1 Unemployment by Gender
Table 4: Unemployment by Gender, MK, 2004-2010
Date Males Females Dec 1998 75.8 24.2 Dec 1999 73.8 26.2 Dec 2000 75.5 24.5 Dec 2001 72.4 27.6 Dec 2002 74.2 25.8 Dec 2003 73.4 26.6 Dec 2004 73.1 26.9 Dec 2005 71.5 28.5 Dec 2006 72.5 27.5 Dec 2007 71.8 28.2 Dec 2008 74.0 26.0 Dec 2009 72.1 27.9 May 2010 70.1 29.9 Source: NOMIS Figure 1: Unemployment by Gender, MK, 1998-2010
Unemployment Split by Gender, MK, 1998-2010
80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Males
% 40.0 Females 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Dec 1998 Dec 1999 Dec 2000 Dec 2001 Dec 2002 Dec 2003 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 65 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 5: Total Male Unemployment, MK, South East and UK, 1998-2010
Date Milton Keynes South East United Kingdom Dec 1998 75.8 76.8 76.9 Dec 1999 73.8 76.2 76.8 Dec 2000 75.5 76.5 77.1 Dec 2001 72.4 75.0 76.4 Dec 2002 74.2 75.1 75.9 Dec 2003 73.4 74.3 75.2 Dec 2004 73.1 73.5 74.6 Dec 2005 71.5 73.6 74.5 Dec 2006 72.5 72.8 73.8 Dec 2007 71.8 71.9 73.4 Dec 2008 74.0 73.5 75.0 Dec 2009 72.1 72.0 73.3 May 2010 70.1 70.8 72.0 Source: NOMIS
Figure 2: Total Male Unemployment, MK, South East and UK, 1998-2010
Male unemployment as a % of total unemployment, MK, South East, UK, 1998-2010
78.0 77.0 76.0 Milton Keynes 75.0 74.0 South East % 73.0 United 72.0 Kingdom 71.0 70.0 69.0 Dec 1998 Dec 1999 Dec 2000 Dec 2001 Dec 2002 Dec 2003 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 May 2010 May
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 66 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 6: Total Female Unemployment, MK, South East and UK, 1998-2010
Date Milton Keynes South East United Kingdom Dec 1998 24.2 23.1 23.2 Dec 1999 26.2 23.2 23.8 Dec 2000 24.5 22.9 23.5 Dec 2001 27.6 23.6 25.0 Dec 2002 25.8 24.1 24.9 Dec 2003 26.6 24.8 25.7 Dec 2004 26.9 25.4 26.5 Dec 2005 28.5 25.5 26.4 Dec 2006 27.5 26.2 27.2 Dec 2007 28.2 26.6 28.1 Dec 2008 26.0 25.0 26.5 Dec 2009 27.9 26.7 28.0 May 2010 29.9 28.0 29.2 Source: NOMIS
Figure 3: Total Female Unemployment, MK, South East and UK, 1998-2010
Female unemployment as a % of total unemployment, MK, South East, UK, 1998-2010
32.0
30.0 Milton Keynes
28.0 South East % 26.0 United Kingdom 24.0
22.0 Dec 1998 Dec 1999 Dec 2000 Dec 2001 Dec 2002 Dec 2003 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec May 2010 May
Source: NOMIS
Table 7: Unemployment by Ethnicity MK South East & UK, 2005-2010
Asian or Black or Chinese / White Mixed Asian British Black British Ethnic Group Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Dec 2005 71% 29% 67% 33% 72% 28% 68% 33% 57% 43% Dec 2007 72% 28% 70% 30% 71% 29% 73% 25% 67% 33% April 2010 72% 28% 72% 28% 67% 33% 70% 30% 61% 39% Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 67 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
6.1.2 Unemployment by Age and Ethnicity MK 2010
Table 8: Unemployment by Age MK, August 2010
Age Group Total Percentage Under 20 455 7% 20-24 1,060 17% 25-29 860 14% 30-34 715 11% 35-39 775 12% 40-44 725 11% 45-49 660 10% 50-54 505 8% 55-59 430 7% 60 + 130 2% Total 6,320 Source: ONS
Table 9: Total Claims duration in SEM LEP area
District Claiming for over 12 months Claiming for over 6 months number percent number percent Bedford 560 15.3 1,280 35.1 Central Bedfordshire 575 15.1 1,255 32.9 Dacorum 250 11.7 630 29.2 Luton 935 16.9 2,050 37.1 Corby 210 14.3 435 29.4 Daventry 125 11.6 280 26.2 Kettering 370 20.0 600 32.3 Northampton 945 18.3 1,800 34.7 South Northamptonshire 100 13.2 200 26.1 Aylesbury Vale 235 12.2 555 28.8 Cherwell 165 10.8 395 25.9 Milton Keynes 1,265 22.1 2,255 39.5 Source: NOMIS
Table 10: Aged 24 and under claims by duration in SEM LEP area
District Claiming for over 12 months Claiming for over 2 years Bedford 0.4 0.1 Central Bedfordshire 0.8 0.1 Dacorum 0.4 0.0 Luton 0.3 0.1 Corby 1.8 0.0 Daventry 1.1 0.1 Kettering 1.9 0.4 Northampton 2.2 0.2 South Northamptonshire 0.5 0.0 Aylesbury Vale 0.7 0.1 Cherwell 0.5 0.1 Milton Keynes 0.7 0.1 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 68 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 11: Aged 24 and over claims by duration in SEM LEP area
District Claiming for over 12 months Claiming for over 2 years Bedford 14.9 0.8 Central Bedfordshire 14.3 1.3 Dacorum 11.2 0.6 Luton 16.5 0.7 Corby 12.5 3.3 Daventry 10.4 2.3 Kettering 18.1 6.4 Northampton 16.1 4.4 South Northamptonshire 12.6 2.6 Aylesbury Vale 11.6 1.3 Cherwell 10.2 1.6 Milton Keynes 21.5 4.3 Source: NOMIS
Table 12: Unemployment by Ethnicity & Gender, July, 2010
Male Female Total Irish 30 3.1% 20 4.0% 45 3.1% Other White 85 8.7% 55 11.1% 140 9.5% Mixed 125 12.8% 45 9.1% 170 11.5% Indian 70 7.1% 55 11.1% 125 8.5% Pakistani 55 5.6% 30 6.1% 85 5.8% Bangladeshi 55 5.6% 10 2.0% 65 4.4% Other Asian 50 5.1% 30 6.1% 80 5.4% Caribbean 95 9.7% 35 7.1% 130 8.8% African 320 32.7% 150 30.3% 470 31.9% Other Black 45 4.6% 15 3.0% 60 4.1% Chinese or Other 50 5.1% 50 10.1% 105 7.1% Total 980 495 1,475 Source: ONS
Figure 4: Unemployment by Ethnicity & Gender, July, 2010
Job Seekers Claims by Ethnicity, MK, July 2010
35.0%
s 30.0% 25.0% Male 20.0% Female 15.0% Total 10.0% 5.0% Percentage Claimant 0.0% Irish Mixed Indian African Other Pakistani Caribbean Chinese or Other Black Other Asian Other White Bangladeshi
Source: ONS
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Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
6.1.3 Ward Unemployment
Table 13: % Unemployment by Ward, MK 2005-2009
Ward Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Bletchley and Fenny Stratford 2.5 2.5 6.4 Bradwell 2.1 2.8 6.6 Campbell Park 2.9 3.4 7.6 Denbigh 2 2.6 5.4 Eaton Manor 3.8 3.7 7.6 Stantonbury 1.9 2.3 5.6 Stony Stratford 1.5 1.7 4.6 Whaddon 2.2 1.9 4.4 Wolverton 2.3 2.8 6.4 Woughton 3.8 3.4 7.1 Emerson Valley 1.1 0.8 2.7 Danesborough 0.9 0.7 3 Furzton 1.4 1.1 3.1 Hanslope Park 1.1 0.5 2 Linford North 1.5 1.3 3.7 Linford South 1.4 1.4 3.9 Loughton Park 1.1 1.1 3 Middleton 0.7 1.1 4.3 Newport Pagnell North 0.7 0.6 2.9 Newport Pagnell South 0.7 1 2.7 Olney 0.9 0.5 1.9 Sherington 0.7 0.5 2 Walton Park 1.4 1.3 3.1 Source: NOMIS
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Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 14: Long Term % Unemployment by Ward, MK 2006-2008
Ward December 2006 December 2007 December 2008 Bradwell 16.4 15.1 8.6 Campbell Park 18.1 15.1 11.8 Denbigh 17.3 14.0 8.5 Stantonbury 17.6 13.0 10.4 Bletchley and Fenny Stratford 21.6 16.8 9.1 Stony Stratford 15.2 20.3 8.5 Whaddon 23.7 15.3 9.0 Wolverton 12.2 12.0 10.4 Woughton 19.8 18.9 12.2 Eaton Manor 23.1 19.7 11.7 Emerson Valley 5.2 11.9 16.0 Furzton 10.0 11.8 13.8 Danesborough 17.1 14.1 17.2 Walton Park 10.2 15.8 21.9 Hanslope Park 6.1 9.4 17.3 Linford North 11.6 13.9 20.9 Linford South 10.5 14.3 16.8 Loughton Park 8.2 13.4 19.7 Middleton 4.4 13.2 22.3 Newport Pagnell North 7.1 9.9 14.7 Newport Pagnell South 3.5 17.3 26.7 Olney 8.1 11.9 23.5 Sherington 7.0 18.4 20.5 Total 9.6 14.6 19.6 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 71 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 15: Sought Occupation by Ward, MK May 2010
Managers Associate and Administrative Ward Professional and Senior Technical and Secretarial Bletchley and Fenny Stratford 25 10 25 35 Bradwell 20 15 35 60 Campbell Park 20 20 45 70 Danesborough 10 5 5 5 Denbigh 20 10 10 35 Eaton Manor 15 5 10 30 Emerson Valley 35 20 25 50 Furzton 15 10 20 25 Hanslope Park 5 5 5 10 Linford North 15 5 15 20 Linford South 15 10 15 30 Loughton Park 30 20 25 45 Middleton 25 25 30 35 Newport Pagnell North 5 10 10 20 Newport Pagnell South 10 5 10 15 Olney 20 5 5 0 Sherington 10 5 0 5 Stantonbury 20 15 15 40 Stony Stratford 20 10 25 35 Walton Park 20 15 25 55 Whaddon 15 5 10 30 Wolverton 25 15 30 45 Woughton 10 10 15 40 Total 415 255 420 740 Source: NOMIS
6.1.4 Long Term Unemployment
Table 16: % Unemployment claims over 12 months aged 24 and under, 2000-2010
Date MK South East England December 2000 0.4 0.3 0.5 December 2001 0.3 0.2 0.4 December 2002 0.7 0.4 0.6 December 2003 0.6 0.6 0.7 December 2004 0.7 0.9 0.8 December 2005 0.5 0.9 1.0 December 2006 0.7 1.1 1.2 December 2007 0.6 0.7 0.8 December 2008 0.3 0.4 0.5 December 2009 0.4 1.0 1.1 July 2010 0.5 1.7 1.8 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 72 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 17: % Unemployment claims over 12 months aged 25 and over, 2000-2010
Date Number Percent December 2000 12,730 17.8 December 2001 8,620 12.7 December 2002 8,135 11.5 December 2003 9,180 12.4 December 2004 8,680 13.0 December 2005 8,895 11.7 December 2006 11,470 14.7 December 2007 7,785 12.1 December 2008 6,915 6.6 December 2009 16,705 11.0 July 2010 21,125 16.0 Source: NOMIS
Table 18: Unemployment Claimant Rate by Area, 2004 - 2010
Central Aylesbury Milton Bedford Luton Northampton Bedfordshire Vale Keynes Dec 04 1.9 1.1 2.6 0.9 1.5 1.7 Dec 05 2.0 1.2 3.0 0.8 1.7 2.2 Dec 06 2.3 1.2 3.3 0.9 1.9 2.3 Dec 07 1.9 1.0 2.5 0.7 1.7 2.0 Dec 08 2.7 1.8 3.3 1.4 2.8 3.1 Dec 09 3.7 2.8 4.6 1.9 4.3 4.6 July 10 3.6 2.4 4.6 1.7 4.0 4.0 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 73 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
6.1.5 Young People not in ‘Education, Employment or Training’ (NEET)
Table 19: NEET MK, South East and England, 2007-2010
Date England South East Milton Keynes Apr-07 7.8% 6.0% 7.5% May-07 7.6% 5.9% 7.2% Jun-07 7.7% 5.9% 7.9% Jul-07 8.1% 6.2% 7.7% Aug-07 8.6% 6.6% 8.1% Sep-07 9.0% 7.5% 10.4% Oct-07 7.7% 6.3% 9.2% Nov-07 6.7% 5.2% 5.7% Dec-07 6.6% 5.2% 5.6% Jan-08 6.8% 5.4% 6.1% Feb-08 7.0% 5.6% 6.9% Mar-08 7.1% 5.6% 7.1% May-08 7.0% 5.3% 7.2% Jun-08 7.2% 5.6% 7.6% Jul-08 7.7% 5.8% 7.7% Aug-08 8.4% 6.5% 7.9% Sep-08 8.5% 7.6% 8.5% Oct-08 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% Nov-08 6.7% 5.6% 5.9% Dec-08 6.6% 5.7% 5.9% Jan-09 6.7% 5.9% 5.9% Feb-09 7.0% 6.1% 6.7% Mar-09 7.2% 6.2% 7.1% Apr-09 7.3% 6.1% 7.4% May-09 7.3% 6.1% 7.8% Jun-09 7.5% 6.2% 7.9% Jul-09 8.0% 6.6% 8.0% Aug-09 8.7% 7.1% 7.9% Sep-09 8.0% 8.0% 7.8% Oct-09 7.1% 6.5% 7.6% Nov-09 6.5% 6.0% 5.7% Dec-09 6.4% 5.8% 5.9% Jan-10 6.2% 5.6% 5.8% Feb-10 6.4% 5.7% 6.5% Mar-10 6.5% 5.7% 7.0% Source: Connexions
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 74 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 20: NEET MK, 2007-2010
Not known NEET % 16-18s % 16-18s Apr-07 6% 7% May-07 4% 7% Jun-07 4% 8% Jul-07 3% 8% Aug-07 5% 8% Sep-07 39% 10% Oct-07 21% 9% Nov-07 6% 6% Dec-07 4% 6% Jan-08 4% 6% Feb-08 4% 7% Mar-08 5% 7% May-08 4% 7% Jun-08 5% 8% Jul-08 4% 8% Aug-08 4% 8% Sep-08 25% 9% Oct-08 11% 8% Nov-08 4% 4% Dec-08 3% 3% Jan-09 4% 4% Feb-09 4% 4% Mar-09 4% 6% Apr-09 4% 6% May-09 4% 7% Jun-09 4% 8% Jul-09 3% 8% Aug-09 3% 8% Sep-09 29% 8% Oct-09 10% 8% Nov-09 3% 6% Dec-09 3% 6% Jan-10 3% 6% Feb-10 3% 7% Mar-10 3% 7% Source: Connexions
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 75 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
6.2 Social Exclusion
6.2.1 Benefits Trends
Figure 21: Working Age Benefit Claimants, MK, South East & England, 2009
Benefit Claims Type MK South East England Severe Disablement Allowance 0 0 0 Widows Benefit 1 1 1 Carers Allowance 4 6 5 Disability Living Allowance 6 8 6 Incapacity Benefit 11 13 13 Income Support/Pension Credit 17 14 14 Job Seekers Allowance 31 24 25 Source: NOMIS
Figure 5: Lone Parent Claims by Duration, 2005-2009
Lone Parent Claimants by Duration, MK, South East & England, 2005-2009
40% 35% 30% 25% MK 20% South East 15% England 10% 5% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 Under 6 months 6 months to 1 1 year up to 2 2 years up to 5 5 years and year years years over
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 76 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 6: Percentage Child Dependants to Benefit Claims, 2000
Percentage of Child dependents to those claiming Benefits, 2000
England
South East 1+ dependant Milton Keynes children Buckinghamshire
Northampton no child dependants Kettering
Luton
Central Bedfordshire
Bedford
Aylesbury Vale
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Source: NOMIS Figure 7: Percentage Child Dependants to Benefit Claims, 2010
Percentage of Child Dependants to those claiming Benefits, 2010
England
South East
Milton Keynes 1+ dependant Buckinghamshire children Northampton no child Kettering dependants
Luton
Central Bedfordshire
Bedford
Aylesbury Vale
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 77 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 8: Percentage Child Dependants to Benefit Claims, 2000-2010
Percentage of Child Dependants to those Claiming benefits, MK, South East & England, 2000-2010 30%
25%
20% Milton Keynes
15% South East 10% England 5%
0% 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010
1 child 2 children 3 children 4 children 5 or more children
Source: NOMIS
Figure 9 Long Term Incapacity Benefit Claims, Males, 2004-2009
Lont Term Incapacity Benefit Claimants, Males, MK, South East and England, 2004-2009 66%
64% IB Long term MK 62%
60% IB Long term South Eas t 58% IB Long term England
56%
54%
52% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 78 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 10: Long Term Incapacity Benefit Claims, Females, 2004-2009
Long Term Incapacity Benefit Claimants, Females, MK, South East and England, 2004-2009
50% 45% 40% IB Long term MK 35% 30% IB Long term South 25% Eas t 20% IB Long term 15% England 10% 5% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 11: Disability Benefits by Duration, 2005-2009
All Entitled Disability Benefits by Duration, MK, South East & England, 2005-2009
80% 70% 60% 50% MK 40% South East 30% England 20% 10% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 2005 2007 2009 Under 6 6 months up to 1 year and up 2 years and up 5 years and months 1 year to 2 years to 5 years over
Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 79 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 12: All Benefit Claimants by 10 highest Wards, 2004-2009
Claimant Rate by 10 highest unemployment Wards, 2004-2009
35 30
25 20 Nov-04 Nov-07 Rate 15 Nov-09 10 5 0 Eaton Manor Park Stony Denbigh Stratford Bradwell Campbell Whaddon Bletchley Stratford Wolverton Woughton and Fenny Stantonbury
Figure 13: Job Seekers Claims by 10 Highest Wards, 2004-2009
Job Seekers Claimants by 10 highest Unemployment Rate Wards, 2004-2009
9 8 7 6 Nov-04 5 Nov-07
Rate 4 3 Nov-09 2 1 0 Eaton Manor Park Stony Denbigh Stratford Bradwell Campbell Whaddon Bletchley Stratford Wolverton Woughton and Fenny Stantonbury
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 80 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 14: Lone Parents Claims by 10 Highest Wards, 2004-2009
Lone Parent Benefit by top 10 unemployment rate wards, 2004-2009
7 6 5 Nov-04 4 Nov-07
Rate 3 Nov-09 2 1 0 Eaton Manor Park Stony Denbigh Stratford Bradwell Campbell Whaddon Bletchley Stratford Wolverton Woughton and Fenny Stantonbury
Figure 15: Incapacity Benefit Claims by 10 Highest Wards, 2004-2009
Incapacity Benefit by 10 highest unemployment rate wards, 2004-2009
16 14 12 10 Nov-04 8 Nov-07 Rate 6 Nov-09 4 2 0 Eaton Manor Park Stony Denbigh Stratford Bradwell Campbell Whaddon Bletchley Stratford Wolverton Woughton and Fenny Stantonbury
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 81 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 16: Careers Benefits by 10 Highest Wards, 2004-2009
Carers Benefit by 10 highest unemployment rate wards, 2004-2009
2.5
2
1.5 Nov-04 Nov-07
Rate 1 Nov-09 0.5
0 Eaton Manor Park Stony Denbigh Bradwell Stratford Campbell Stratford Whaddon Bletchley Wolverton Woughton and Fenny Stantonbury
6.3 Crime
Figure 22: Crime Type, MK, 2005-2010
Crime Type Apr - Mar 05/06 Apr - Mar 07/08 Apr - Mar 09/10 Violence Against the Person 5373 5954 6022 Theft or Handling Offences 7156 6651 6503 Criminal Damage 5153 4990 3925 Theft from Vehicle 2334 2099 2079 Burglary Non-Dwelling 1623 1236 1293 Fraud or Forgery 1244 1361 1485 Drugs Offences 1291 1234 1326 Theft of Vehicle 846 900 651 Burglary Dwelling 990 1063 1197 Robbery 290 291 350 Sexual Offences 306 289 313 Other Offences 225 204 336 All Crimes 26831 26272 25480 Source: Thames Valley Police 2010
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 82 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Figure 17: Total Crimes, MK, 2003-2010
Total Crimes, MK, 2003-2010 28
27.5
Thousands 27
26.5
Number 26
25.5
25
24.5 Apr - Mar 05/06 Apr - Mar 07/08 Apr - Mar 09/10
6.4 Health
Fig 18: Low Birth Weights, MK, South East & England, 1999-2007
% of Live Births of Low Birth Weights, 1999-2007
9
8.5
8 England South East
% 7.5 Milton Keynes
7
6.5
6 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 83 -
Chapter 6 Economic and Social Exclusion
Table 23: Life Expectancy, 5 year averages, by MK Ward, 1999-2008
Year 1999/2003 2000/2004 2001/2005 2002/2006 2003/2007 2004/2008 Ward Bletchley and Fenny 77.2 77.2 77.8 78.8 79.2 79.8 Stratford Bradwell 80.8 80.1 81 80 79 80.2 Campbell Park 77.9 77.8 78 78.2 79.2 79 Danesborough 80.2 79.3 80.7 80.6 81.1 81.8 Denbigh 77.3 76.8 77.7 78.4 79.4 80.1 Eaton Manor 75.8 76.4 76 75.7 76.7 75.7 Emerson Valley 79.9 79.7 79.3 78.7 78.9 79.9 Furzton 78.1 79.2 78.4 79.1 79.1 81.1 Hanslope Park 80.5 81 80.2 80.9 81.2 82.8 Linford North 81.4 80.5 81 80.7 80.3 79.7 Linford South 80.3 80.6 78.2 77.9 78 76.7 Loughton Park 78.7 78.2 78.8 79.2 79.2 79.8 Middleton 81.6 79.6 81.7 82.2 81.2 86.2 Newport Pagnell North 78 77.8 78.6 78.8 79.7 80.3 Newport Pagnell South 79.8 78.8 80.4 81.2 81.4 82.3 Olney 81.4 81.3 81.1 80.7 80.9 80.2 Sherington 77.5 77.8 77.8 79 80.1 79.8 Stantonbury 80.7 79.9 81.3 81.5 81.8 81.9 Stony Stratford 78.9 79.2 79.1 79.5 80.5 81.1 Walton Park 77.7 78 76.8 77.2 77.7 76.7 Whaddon 76.7 76.5 76.9 77 78.4 78.6 Wolverton 78.9 78.1 78.7 79.2 80.4 80.4 Woughton 72.5 72.6 72.3 73 73.4 74.4 Milton Keynes 78.4 78.3 78.4 78.6 79 79.3 Source: ONS
Figure 19: Coronary Heart Deaths by Gender, 2006-2007
Deaths from Coronary Heart Disease by Gender 2006-2007
140
120
100 Aylesbury Vale Bedford 80 Northampton 60 Luton Milton Keynes 40 Number of Deaths Number Central Bedfordshire 20
0 Men Women
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 84 -
Chapter 7 Sustainable Economic Growth
Table 7.1: Dwellings, Households and Employment Levels, MK 1998 - 2008
Year Dwellings Population Employment Level 1998 83,026 200,010 112,993 1999 84,504 202,920 121,843 2000 85,996 205,370 124,872 2001 87,494 212,710 130,098 2002 88,724 214,940 129,775 2003 89,907 216,870 130,345 2004 91,040 218,730 134,104 2005 92,350 221,400 133,104 2006 94,145 224,760 131,519 2007 95,805 227,800 138,824 2008 98,106 232,200 142,620 Source: MKI Observatory and NOMIS
7.1 Housing
Table 7.2: House Starts and Completions, MK, 1998-2010
Year Completions Starts Net Under Construction Losses 1998 - 1999 1482 1472 10 1061 4 1999 - 2000 1495 1614 -119 1180 3 2000 - 2001 1535 1302 233 946 37 2001 - 2002 1234 1165 69 875 3 2002 - 2003 1188 1310 -122 997 5 2003 - 2004 1193 1115 78 917 60 2004 - 2005 1370 2030 -660 1577 10 2005 - 2006 1808 2448 -640 2213 13 2006 - 2007 1672 2544 -872 3079 12 2007 - 2008 2317 1569 748 2329 16 2008 - 2009 1856 1083 773 1557 15 2009 - 2010 1422 1062 360 1197 9 Source: MKC Annual Monitoring Reports
Fig 7.3: Average Employment and Housing completions, MK, 1998-2008
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Employment Average 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693 2,693
Housing Completions 1,522 1,478 1,492 1,498 1,231 1,183 1,133 1,360 1,795 1,660 2,301 Source: MKi Observatory
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 85 -
Chapter 7 Sustainable Economic Growth
Table 7.1: Average Employment and Housing completions, MK, 1998-2008
Average Employment & Housing Completions, MK 1998 - 2008
2,800 2,600 2,400 Employment 2,200 Average
r 2,000 Housing 1,800 Completions Numbe 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: MKi Observatory
Table 7.4: Milton Keynes 5 Year Housing Land Supply
Source of Land Total Housing Sites with planning permission 7,491 Allocated sites with permission 634 Identified unallocated previously developed (Brownfield) sites 273 Total 8,398
7.1.1 Existing Households in Housing Need
Table 7.5: Dwellings and Population Projections, MK 2009 - 2018
Year Dwellings Population 2009 97,970 236,100 2010 99,690 239,500 2011 101,390 242,800 2012 103,000 246,200 2013 104,570 249,500 2014 106,190 252,800 2015 107,820 256,000 2016 109,430 259,200 2017 111,010 262,400 2018 112,550 285,600 Source: NOMIS and MKC
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 86 -
Chapter 7 Sustainable Economic Growth
Fig 7.2: Dwelling and Population Forecasts 2009-2018
Dwellings and Population Projections MK 2009 to 2018 300,000
250,000
200,000 Dw ellings
Population Number 150,000
100,000
50,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Figure 7.3: Housing Starts and Completions, MK, 1998-2010
Housing Starts and Completions, MK, 1998-2010
1st April 1998 - 1999 1st April 1999 - 2000 1st April 2000 - 2001 1st April 2001 - 2002 Starts 1st April 2002 - 2003 1st April 2003 - 2004 Completions 1st April 2004 - 2005 1st April 2005 - 2006 1st April 2006 - 2007 1st April 2007 - 2008 1st April 2008 - 2009 1st April 2009 - 2010
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Total
Source: MKI Observatory
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 87 -
Chapter 7 Sustainable Economic Growth
Fig 7.4: Net Housing Starts and Completions, MK, 1998-2009
Net Housing Starts and Completions, 1998-2009 1000
800 600 400
200 0
Number -200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -400 - 1998 - 1999 - 2000 - 2001 - 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - 2009 -600
-800 -1000
Table 7.6: Affordable Housing Completions, MK, 1991-2010
Year Affordable Completions Net Completions 1991 - 1992 767 1844 1992 - 1993 737 2018 1993 - 1994 402 1466 1994 - 1995 455 1804 1995 - 1996 621 1880 1996 - 1997 515 1696 1997 - 1998 280 1522 1998 - 1999 256 1478 1999 - 2000 296 1492 2000 - 2001 356 1498 2001 - 2002 97 1231 2002 - 2003 128 1183 2003 - 2004 337 1133 2004 - 2005 446 1360 2005 - 2006 751 1795 2006 - 2007 491 1660 2007 - 2008 706 2301 2008 - 2009 686 1841 2009 - 2010 438 1413 Source: MKC Planning
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 88 -
Chapter 7 Sustainable Economic Growth
Fig 7.5: Affordable Housing Completions, MK, 1991-2010
Net and Affordable Housing Devolpment Completions, MK, 1991-2010 2500 s 2000 Net Completions 1500 Affordable 1000 Completions
500 Number of Completion
0 1991 -1991 1992 -1992 1993 -1993 1994 -1994 1995 -1995 1996 -1996 1997 -1997 1998 -1998 1999 -1999 2000 -2000 2001 -2001 2002 -2002 2003 -2003 2004 -2004 2005 -2005 2006 -2006 2007 -2007 2008 -2008 2009 -2009 2010
Table 7.7: Developed House Types, MK, 1991/2010
1 bed 2 bed 3+ bed 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5+ bed Year flat flat flat house house house house house 91/92 360 131 1 158 559 474 148 15 95/96 71 50 0 47 545 549 444 84 00/01 99 39 0 28 279 487 384 219 05/06 142 490 8 4 193 489 364 118 09/10 179 449 13 25 161 219 279 73
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 89 -
Chapter 8 Economic Competitiveness
Table 1: Percentage Business Units by Sector, MK9 postcode, 2008
1-10 11-49 50-199 200+ Industry employees employees employees employees Agriculture, forestry & fishing 0 0 0 0 Mining, quarrying & utilities 0 0 0 0 Manufacturing 2 0 1 0 Motor trades 0 0 0 0 Education 1 2 1 0 Construction 4 0 1 0 Wholesale 3 2 0 0 Health 4 4 2 0 Transport & storage 1 1 2 6 Property 8 4 2 0 Public admin & other 7 6 13 12 Information & communication 11 6 5 9 Finance & insurance 6 7 11 9 Accommodation & food services 5 17 10 0 Professional, scientific & technical 14 13 15 18 Business administration & support services 14 8 21 27 Retail 21 29 17 18 Source: NOMIS
Table 2: Percentage Employees by Sector, MK9 Postcode, 2008
1-10 11-49 50-199 200 or more Industry employees employees employees employees Agriculture, forestry & fishing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mining, quarrying & utilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing 1 0 1 0 Education 1 2 1 0 Construction 2 0 2 0 Motor trades 0 0 0 0 Property 7 3 2 0 Wholesale 3 2 0 0 Health 5 4 2 0 Transport & storage 1 1 3 13 Information & communication 9 6 6 14 Finance & insurance 6 8 8 11 Public admin & other 8 6 13 9 Accommodation & food services 9 19 7 0 Professional, scientific & technical 10 14 14 21 Business administration & support services 11 9 26 18 Retail 29 26 17 14 Source: NOMIS
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 90 -
Chapter 9 Future Growth Prospects
9.1 GVA
Table 9.1: Projected change in GVA by Sector, MK, SE and UK, 2008-2030
Sector Milton Keynes South East UK % % % Agriculture 14 3 3 Mining & Quarrying -41 -39 -45 Manufacturing 25 25 14 Electricity, Gas & Water 20 4 4 Construction 16 20 19 Distribution & Hotels 58 60 56 Transport & Communications 132 115 92 Finance, Business & Other 114 87 91 Non-Market Services 47 38 38 Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
Table 9.2: Projected change in Total GVA, MK, SE & UK, 2008-2030
Year Milton Keynes South East UK % % % 2010 1.29 1.56 1.40 2011 2.89 2.32 1.87 2012 3.15 2.48 2.04 2013 3.76 2.83 2.34 2014 3.48 2.81 2.31 2015 3.72 3.02 2.47 2016 2.99 2.45 2.23 2017 3.08 2.48 2.27 2018 3.17 2.57 2.34 2019 3.25 2.59 2.32 2020 3.32 2.65 2.33 2021 3.34 2.65 2.34 2022 3.46 2.74 2.50 2023 3.57 2.81 2.60 2024 3.49 2.74 2.41 2025 3.63 2.83 2.47 2026 3.64 2.83 2.48 2027 3.70 2.86 2.46 2028 3.68 2.84 2.55 2029 3.72 2.89 2.57 2030 3.83 2.92 2.55 Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 91 -
Chapter 9 Future Growth Prospects
Table 9.3: Percentage Change in GVA by Sector, MK South East & UK, 2009-2030
Sector MK South East UK Agriculture 21.3% 1.0% 1.0% Mining & Quarrying -28.2% 7.4% 8.0% Manufacturing 35.7% -22.3% -28.5% Electricity, Gas & Water 12.1% 36.6% 27.4% Construction 29.6% 12.1% 13.0% Distribution, Hotels etc 71.0% 37.6% 35.3% Transport & Communications 147.8% 69.4% 63.8% Fin., Bus. & Other Mkt. Services 130.1% 128.3% 103.0% Non-Market Services 44.5% 97.3% 100.1% Source: NOMIS
Fig 9.1: Percentage Change in GVA by Sector, MK South East & UK, 2009-2030
Percentage Change in GVA by Sector, MK, South East & UK, 2009-2030
Non-Market Services
Transport & Communic ations
Construction UK
Manufacturing South East . MK
Agriculture
-50.0% -30.0% -10.0% 10.0% 30.0% 50.0% 70.0% 90.0% 110.0% 130.0% 150.0%
LEA Technical Document – January 2011 - 92 -
Chapter 9 Future Growth Prospects
Table 9.4: Projected Change in Total Jobs, MK South East & UK 2010-2030
Year Milton Keynes South East UK 2011 0.4% -0.1% -0.1% 2012 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 2013 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 2014 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 2015 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 2016 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 2017 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 2018 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 2019 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 2020 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 2021 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 2022 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 2023 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 2024 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 2025 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 2026 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% 2027 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 2028 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 2029 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 2030 2.0% 1.2% 1.1%
Table 9.5: Projected Percentage Change in Productivity, MK, SE and UK, 2010-2030
Year Milton Keynes South East UK 2011 2.5 2.4 2.1 2012 2.3 2.2 2.0 2013 1.9 1.7 2.0 2014 2.2 2.0 2.0 2015 2.4 2.2 2.1 2016 1.7 1.6 1.5 2017 1.7 1.6 1.6 2018 1.9 1.8 1.7 2019 1.9 1.7 1.7 2020 2.0 1.8 1.7 2021 2.0 1.8 1.6 2022 1.9 1.8 1.7 2023 2.0 1.8 1.8 2024 2.0 1.8 1.7 2025 2.0 1.9 1.7 2026 2.0 1.8 1.7 2027 1.9 1.8 1.6 2028 1.8 1.7 1.6 2029 1.9 1.7 1.6 2030 1.8 1.7 1.5 Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
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Milton Keynes Local Economic Assessment Technical Document - January 2011
www.milton-keynes.gov.uk/council-business/
Pam Gosal Corporate Head of Economic Development Milton Keynes Council T 01908 252192 Civic Offices F 01908 252768 1Saxon Gate East E business-survey@milton- Central Milton Keynes keynes.gov.uk MK9 3EJ W www.milton-keynes.gov.uk
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