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July 13, 2015 July 13, 2015 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) NCsoft (036570/Buy/TP: W270,000) KOSPI 2,061.52 30.35 1.49 An attractive dividend growth stock for 2H KOSPI 200 249.84 3.01 1.22 KOSDAQ 749.46 18.74 2.56 Sector News & Analysis Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Retail (Overweight) Volume Value KOSPI 421,534 6,184 Results of the downtown Seoul duty-free bid KOSPI 200 117,824 4,316 Healthcare (Overweight) KOSDAQ 531,974 3,542 Healthcare Weekly Briefing Market Cap (Wbn) Value Fixed Income Weekly KOSPI 1,284,751 Demand to rise steadily KOSDAQ 204,132 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,252 1,247 5 Institutional 1,138 1,148 -10 Retail 3,771 3,744 27 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 234 172 62 Institutional 252 200 52 Retail 3,049 3,117 -67 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,038 938 100 KOSDAQ 57 43 14 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 684 147 37 KOSDAQ 820 199 51 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Hotel Shilla 131,000 3,000 420 KODEX LEVERAGE 10,560 200 247 Samsung Electronics 1,266,000 7,000 194 Hanmi Science 123,500 -3,000 189 Shinsegae 207,500 -26,000 188 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Webzen 38,800 350 135 Eugene Corporation 7,230 240 123 SEEGENE 63,500 1,000 98 Com2us 157,100 7,600 96 Daum Communications 134,800 4,300 94 Note: As of July 13, 2015 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. NCsoft (036570 KS) An attractive dividend growth stock for 2H Game 2Q preview: Raising OP estimate to W65.5bn For 2Q, we forecast NCsoft’s revenue and operating profit to come in at W198.1bn and Earnings Preview W65.5bn, respectively, ahead of the consensus (OP of W62.7bn) and higher than our July 13, 2015 original estimate (OP of W53bn). Earnings in 2Q were likely driven by two factors. First is Lineage I revenue, which we estimate increased to W77bn in 2Q from W66bn in 1Q, boosted by a microtransaction (Maintain) Buy th th event (“Dragon’s Treasure Chest”) held from May 10 to June 13 . Another event (“Lumtis & Snapper: Dark Force Awakens”) began on June 24 th and will last u ntil Target Price (12M, W) 270,000 September 2 nd . Share Price (07/10/15, W) 209,500 We believe earnings were also boosted by lower costs, resulting from 1) the removal of the W8bn bonus payout in 1Q and 2) smaller losses from th e pro baseball team with the Expected Return 29% start of the season. New release momentum in 2H OP (15F, Wbn) 310 The biggest earnings momentum this year will likely come from the release of the Guild Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 290 Wars 2 expansion pack, the first Guild Wars series to be unveiled in three years. The th EPS Growth (15F, %) 16.4 company began taking pre-orders on its website on June 17 and plans to officially Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 35.3 launch the game in late 3Q or early 4Q. We expect around 2mn copies to be sold by the P/E (15F, x) 17.2 end of the year at US$50 per copy (revenue of W110bn). The original Guild Wars 2 Market P/E (15F, x) 10.8 (which debuted in 2012) sold 1mn copies in pre-orders, 3mn copies during the first f ive KOSPI 2,031.17 months of its official release, and around 4.7mn copies in total. Market Cap (Wbn) 4,594 A number of mobile titles are set to come out in 2H, including Pangya Mobile , Fashion Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 Street, and other RPG publishing games. But the biggest highlight, in our view, will be Free Float (%) 84.9 mobile RPG games developed based on existing intellectual property, such as Aion Foreign Ownership (%) 40.9 Legions (based on Aions ), which is likely to be launched in 4Q. Beta (12M) 0.32 52-Week Low 123,500 The PC game Master X Master (MXM) is also expected to be released domestically in 4Q. 52-Week High 218,500 The highly anticipated mobile version of Lineage is likely to come out in 1Q16. (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M Retain Buy and TP of W270,000; Assets and earnings to support dividends Absolute 15.4 8.5 28.5 The battle for control between NCsoft’s current management and its largest Relative 16.6 2.9 26.7 shareholder Nexon is still ongoing. At the 2016 annual general meeting in March , the 140 NCsoft KOSPI terms for five of NCsoft’s seven executive board members are set to end. There is a strong chance M&A expectations will resurface in 2H ahead of next year’s meeting. 120 100 Looking forward, we could see calls from Nexon for better shareholder returns (vs. 2014 DPS of W3,430; payout of 30.1%). NCsoft has abundant cash assets, including W800bn 80 in cash, W600bn in real estate, and W400bn in Netmarble shares. With earnings and 60 7.14 11.14 3.15 7.15 new releases likely to gain momentum in 3Q and 4Q, we maintain our Buy rating and target price of W270,000. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 754 757 839 916 1,003 1,240 [Internet/Game/Entertainment] OP (Wbn) 151 205 278 310 358 497 Chang-kwean Kim OP margin (%) 20.0 27.1 33.1 33.8 35.7 40.1 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 156 159 230 268 296 419 [email protected] EPS (W) 7,120 7,245 10,487 12,205 13,508 19,120 ROE (%) 16.8 14.8 18.4 18.3 17.8 21.7 Jeong-yeob Park +822-768-4124 P/E (x) 21.1 34.3 17.4 17.2 15.5 11.0 [email protected] P/B (x) 3.0 4.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Retail (Overweight/Maintain) Results of the downtown Seoul duty-free bid HDC Shilla and Hanwha Galleria Timeworld named winners of duty-free bid For Shinsegae and HDS, focus on core businesses, which should improve in 2H News Comment Competition to emerge for licenses expiring at the end of year July 13, 2015 HDC Shilla and Hanwha Galleria Timeworld win downtown duty-free bid Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. Winners of the downtown Seoul duty-free shop bid were recently announced, with HDC Shilla [Retail] Duty Free, a joint venture between Hotel Shilla and Hyundai Development, and Hanwha Galleria Timeworld, nabbing the much-coveted licenses among large corporations. SM Duty Aiden Lee +822-768-3297 Free won in the SME group, while Jeju Tourism Organization was awarded the duty-free [email protected] license for downtown Jeju. Among the winners, we believe Hanwha Galleria Timeworld is worth noting. The retailer, which recorded revenue of W413.7bn and operating profit of W33.4bn in 2014, is expected to gain another W400-500bn in annual revenue from operating duty-free stores in downtown Seoul. Margins are also likely to be slightly higher than the 6-7% the retailer is currently earning. All in all, we expect the retailer to double its overall revenue and deliver an even faster increase in operating profit. The stock is currently trading at a 2014 P/E of 19.1x. For Shinsegae and HDS, focus on improvements in core businesses The latest results are indeed disappointing for Shinsegae and Hyundai Department Store (HDS), which eagerly sought after the duty-free licenses. In particular, Shinsegae‘s stock, which rallied on related hopes, is bound for a near-term correction. Shinsegae DF’s defeat also means Emart will suffer from wider losses at the duty-free unit of its subsidiary Shinsegae Chosun Hotel. Expectations on 2Q earnings are low for both Shinsegae and HDS, mainly because of the MERS outbreak in June. However, we believe investors should pay attention to both retailers after their 2Q earnings are released.
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