[Korea] Games January 19, 2021 NCsoft Buy (036570 KS) (Maintain) Watch for earnings/new title momentum and new TP: W1,260,000 businesses in 2021 Upside: 34.3% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Chang-kwean Kim
[email protected] HeeSeok Lim
[email protected] Revenue from existing titles 4Q20 preview: Revenue of W552bn and OP of W187bn remains robust In 1Q21, we believe the combined daily average revenue of Lineage M and Lineage 2M has remained at around W4bn (similar to the 4Q20 level), supported by the continued effects of updates made in July (Lineage M) and November (Lineage 2M). For 4Q20, we expect NCsoft to post revenue of W552bn (+3.3% YoY) and operating profit of W187bn (+32.5% YoY). The consensus is currently looking for revenue of W554.9bn and operating profit of W169.3bn. We believe 4Q20 margins contracted on: 1) company-wide incentive payouts; and 2) bonus payouts to the company’s professional baseball team following its Korean Series win. Launch of new businesses, 1Q20 new releases coming into view, with Lineage 2M beginning pre-registrations in including UNIVERSE, in 1Q21 Taiwan/Japan New releases due in 1Q20 are coming into view, with Lineage 2M beginning pre-registrations simultaneously in Taiwan and Japan on Jan. 8. The domestic rollout of Blade & Soul 2 also looks set to take place in 1Q21, as planned. Trickster M, which we have not reflected in our revenue assumption, has reached over 3mn pre- registrations. The K-pop entertainment platform UNIVERSE also surpassed 3mn pre-registrations on Jan. 14.