The beginning of the end of the pandemic era

Peter Daszak

EcoHealth Alliance, New York, USA www.ecohealthalliance.org

Jones et al. 2008 Nature The Frequency of EID Events is Increasing

EID events have increased over time, correcting for increased

surveillance (GLMP,JID F = 86.4, p <0.001, d.f.=57)

~5 new EIDs each year

~3 new Zoonoses each year

Zoonotic EIDs from wildlife (yellow) are increasing exponentially, and significantly, correcting for increased surveillance.

Jones et al. (2008) Nature Where and why will the next pandemic begin?

relative std. influence dev. (%) population 27.99 2.99 mammal 19.84 3.30 diversity change: pop 13.54 1.54 change: pasture 11.71 1.30 urban extent 9.77 1.62 Allen et al. Nature Comm. In press Analysis of viral data for all mammals

2805 unique mammal-virus associations

754 mammal species • 374 genera, 80 families, 15 orders

586 ICTV unique viruses found in mammals • 28 viral families • 382 RNA; 205 DNA viruses • 263 detected in humans (44%); 75 exclusively human. • 188 (71.5%) of human viruses are ‘zoonotic’

Olival et al. 2017, Nature Observed Viral Richness in Mammals

Olival et al. 2017, Nature Predictors of proportion zoonotic per spp.

Olival et al. 2017, Nature Missing Zoonoses - Mammals

Olival et al. 2017, Nature PREDICT-1 2009-2014: ~1000 viruses (800+ novel) in 28 viral families

http://www.healthmap.org/predict/ Coronaviruses – PREDICT-1 bats Feasibility: Extrapolating from PREDICT

Discovery Curves Show the Number of Samples Requiredmber of samples required to discover most of the unknown viruses

• Extrapolating from each of 21 viral families tested in 2 studies, we estimate there are 1.6 million unknown viruses in 24 viral families in mammals and water birds. • Using ICTV data, we expect 650,000 - 840,000 have zoonotic potential. • Folllowing the cost of PREDICT sampling and testing, discovering 85% of these viruses would cost around $1.2 billion, or $120 million per year over a decade The Global Virome Project

GVP Targeting

Mammals and water birds are the target viral reservoirs

Mammalian Habitat ranges Waterfowl breeding hotspots The Global Virome: Site Selection

Target: 68.5% of global mammalian viruses - 70% of potential zoonoses - by sampling 63.5% of global mammalian diversity

Phase 1: 20 SUs, 1227 mammals, $275.4M Phase 2: 30 SUs, 739 mammals, $192.8M Phase 3: 58 SUs, 1013 mammals, $289.6M

Li et al. (2005) Science

94 Human SARS CoV Tor2 85 Human SARS CoV BJ01 Human SARS CoV GZ02 Civet SARS CoV SZ3 80 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4087-1 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4110 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4090 98 92 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4079 Bat SL-CoV Rs_3367 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4105 Bat SL-CoV Rs_SHC014 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4084 64 99 Bat SL-CoV Rs_3267-1 68 Bat SL-CoV Rs_3262-1 Bat SL-CoV Rs_3369 Bat SL-CoV Rf1 97 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4075 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4092 99 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4085 51 Bat SL-CoV Rs_3262-2 Bat SL-CoV Rs_3267-2 Bat SL-CoV HKU3-1 Bat SL-CoV Rm1 Bat SL-CoV Rp3 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4108 Bat SL-CoV Rs672 95 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4081 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4096 86 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4087-2 Bat Sl-CoV Rs_4097 Bat SL-CoV Rs_4080 Ge et al. (2013) Nature

Can we afford pandemic prevention?

Costs of zoonotic spillover events over next 50 years

$600

$400 (Billions)

$200 Annual Cost Cost Annual $0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Total damages over next 50 yrs: $3.5+ trillion 20 year window to act (Pike et al. 2014) How much should we spend? Program costing $1.7 billion reducing # or cost of events by 5%....

$600

Total Savings: $163 billion

$400 (billions) 10-year program $200 Annual Cost Cost Annual $0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

...the ROI is $96+ for each dollar invested.

Economic argument to reduce deforestation and prevent EIDs

~43% by 2150

private optimum ~27% by 2070 ES ~24% by 2050

ES + H socially optimal

Collaborators • 100+ partners in 24 countries • USAID PREDICT Consortium: UC Davis, Metabiota, WCS, Smithsonian • Columbia Univ. (Ian Lipkin, Simon Anthony) • China: Wuhan Inst. Virology, China CDC, Yunnan CDC, Wuhan CDC (Zhengli Shi, George Fu Gao, Linfa Wang, Peng Zhou)