The International Library of Sociology HOUSING NEEDS AND PLANNING POLICY Founded by KARL MANNHEIM The International Library of Sociology PUBLIC POLICY, WELFARE AND SOCIAL WORK In 18 Volumes I The Church in Social Work Hall et al II Creative Demobilisation—Part One Gutkind III Creative Demobilisation—Part Two Gutkind IV Higher Civil Servants in Britain Kelsall V Housing Needs and Planning Policy Cullingworth VI Penelope Hall’s Social Services of England and Wales Forder VII The Price of Social Security Williams VIII The Professional Task in Welfare Practice Nokes IX Social Casework Timms X Social Policies for Old Age Shenfield XI Social Security: Beveridge and After George XII Social Services in British Industry Young XIII Social Services of Modern Britain Hall XIV The Sociology of Housing Morris et al XV Voluntary Social Services since 1918 Mess XVI Voluntary Societies and Social Policy Rooff XVII Voluntary Work and the Welfare State Morris XVIII Working with Community Groups Goetschius HOUSING NEEDS AND PLANNING POLICY A Restatement of the Problems of Housing Need and ‘Overspill’ in England and Wales by J.B.CULLINGWORTH First published in 1960 by Routledge and Kegan Paul, Ltd This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2004. © 1960 J.B.Cullingworth All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. The publishers have made every effort to contact authors/copyright holders of the works reprinted in The International Library of Sociology. This has not been possible in every case, however, and we would welcome correspondence from those individuals/companies we have been unable to trace. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0-203-00125-7 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 0-203-17533-6 (Adobe eReader Format) Housing Needs and Planning Policy ISBN 0-415-17717-0 (Print Edition) Public Policy, Welfare and Social Work: 18 Volumes ISBN 0-415-17831-2 (Print Edition) The International Library of Sociology: 274 Volumes ISBN 0-415-17838-X (Print Edition) CONTENTS Preface page ix Introduction xi PART ONE: HOUSING NEEDS I Sources and Definitions 3 II Household Formation, 1931–1951 9 III The 1951 Housing Situation 21 IV Household Formation 1951–1978 39 V The Problem of Replacement 49 VI Conclusion: Housing Needs 1958–1978 56 PART TWO: PLANNING POLICY Introduction 63 VII Post-War Planning Policy 65 VIII London 72 IX Manchester 115 X The Present Impasse 142 XI Overspill—A Re-examination 157 XII Towards a Policy 180 Appendix: Local Authorities in the Greater London Planning Region, the Abercrombie Plan Region, and the ‘Metropolitan Region’ 202 Bibliography 205 Index 213 v TABLES 1 Percentage Changes in Population, Households, and Dwellings, 1931–1951 page 10 2 Persons per Room by Size of Household, England and Wales, 1931 and 1951 11 3 Size Distribution of Households, England and Wales, 1931 and 1951 12 4 Changes in Age Structure, England and Wales, 1931– 1951 14 5 1951 Headship Rates Applied to Three Broad Age Groups of the 1931 Population 15 6 1951 Headship Rates by Age, Sex, and Marital-Condition Applied to the 1931 Population 17 7 Age Distribution and Age-Specific Headship Rates, United States, 1890 and 1950 18 8 Analysis of Household Composition, England and Wales, 1951 27 9 Sharing and Non-Sharing Households by Availability of Certain Household Arrangements, England and Wales, 1951 31 10 Rooms in Relation to Persons by Size of Household Occupation, England and Wales, 1951 35 11 Size Distribution of Dwellings and Households, England and Wales, 1951 36 12 Size Distribution of Households, England and Wales, 1931 and 1951 36 13 Size Distribution of Dwellings, England and Wales, 1931 and 1951 37 14 Number of Households in the 1951 Population of England and Wales on Actual and Hypothetical Headship Rates 40 15 Age, Sex, and Marital-Condition Distribution of the 1951 and 1957 Populations, together with 1951 Headship Rates and Households and the Number of ‘Expected’ Households in 1957 41 vi TABLES 16 Households and Dwellings, 1951 and 1957 page 42 17 Population Projections, England and Wales 43 18 Estimates of the Number of Households in 1978 on Various Hypotheses 45 19 Hypothetical Projections of Households in 1978 46 20 Dwellings Needed in 1978 on Four Hypotheses 47 21 Age of Houses in England and Wales, 1958 50 22 New Houses Built in England and Wales, 1946 to 1958 57 23 Target Population Figures for Local Planning Authority Areas in the London Region (as at 1954) 81 24 Target Population Figures for the Greater London Planning Region (as at 1956) 82 25 Housing Progress in the London New Towns 87 26 London New Towns—Population Proposals 87 27 Expanded Towns for London Overspill 89 28 Population Changes in the Inner and Suburban Rings of the Greater London Planning Region, 1938–1958 93 29 Population Changes in the Green Belt and Outer Country Rings of the Greater London Planning Region, 1938–1958 94 30 Population Changes and Targets in the Greater London Planning Region 96 31 Increase in the Total Working Population in the London Area as a Proportion of the National Increase, 1952–1958 97 32 Additional Office Floor Space in the Central Area of London Allowed by Planning Permissions given mid- 1948 to 31st December 1955 98 33 Estimated Industrial Building and Employment in the London New Towns, 31st December 1959 100 34 Estimated Peak Traffic Entering the Central Area of London, 1949–1958 103 35 Estimated Number of Employees at end-May 1949 and end-May 1957: Analysis by Region 105 36 Population Changes in the Greater London Planning Region and its Surrounding Ring, 1938–1958 107 37 Net Inter-Regional Migration of Employees, 1951–1958 108 38 The Overspill Problem in the Manchester Conurbation 117 39 Proposed Overspill Movement in S.E.Lancashire by 1971 122 vii TABLES–MAPS 40 Reception of Overspill in Lancashire from Manchester and Salford: Position at 31st December 1959 123 41 Expected Overspill and Immigration, North Cheshire, 1951–1970 127 42 Overspill from the Congested Areas of the Manchester Conurbation up to 31st December 1959 134 43 Population Changes in the Manchester Conurbation and its Adjoining Areas, 1951–1958 141 44 Worsley Social Survey: Attitudes Towards Living in Flats 161 MAPS 1 The Four Rings of the Greater London Plan page 73 2 Local Planning Authorities in and around the Greater London Planning Region 79 3 The London New Towns 84 4 The London Expanded Towns 88 5 Regional Employment Changes, 1949–1957 104 6 The Greater London Planning Region and its Surrounding Ring 106 7 The Manchester Conurbation 118 8 Manchester in its Regional Setting 124 viii PREFACE THIS BOOK is essentially a restatement of some of the problems which housing and planning policy will have to meet during the next two decades. It does not pretend to put forward any new facts or theories. Its purpose is simply to bring together information from a wide range of sources and to summarize the scale and character of the problems. It is, unfortunately, impossible to make the book completely up- to-date. At the time of writing (January 1960) the latest detailed population figures available were those for 1958. Much of the evidence presented to the Royal Commission on Local Government in Greater London had not been published. The first report of the Local Government Commission had not appeared. The Local Employment Bill was still passing through Parliament. Even more important, the First Review of the County of London Development Plan was only at the draft stage. The London County Council kindly gave the author access to much of the material which will be included in this Review, but, since some of it was in process of being revised, it was not possible to make all the desirable alterations in the text. The paper by A.G.Powell on ‘The Recent Development of Greater London’ had also not been published but Mr. Powell kindly made a copy available to me in advance of publication. This paper contains a great deal of hitherto unavailable information, and forms the basis of most of the present author’s analysis of employment in the London Region. The number of people to whom I am indebted is very large. I have received much assistance from officials of Government Departments, New Town Development Corporations and Local Authorities all over the country. Of necessity these must remain anonymous, but my gratitude is thereby none the less. My debt to my wife must be recorded: without her aid in correcting and typing innumerable drafts, and in wrestling with a mass of figures, this book could not have been written. I also wish to acknowledge with sincere thanks the financial aid granted to me by the Joseph ix PREFACE Rowntree Memorial Trust. It was their help which enabled this study to be undertaken. Finally, I acknowledge with thanks permission received from the Controller of H.M. Stationery Office and the London County Council for extensive use of official publications; and from the publishers for permission to quote from Lloyd Rodwin, The British New Towns Policy (Copyright 1956 Harvard University Press), L..Grebler, D.M.Blank and L..Winnick, Capital Formation in Residential Real Estate (Copyright 1956, Princeton University Press), D.M.Potter, People of Plenty (Copyright 1954, University of Chicago Press), and L. Winnick, American Housing and Its Use (Copyright 1957, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.).