JOINT RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL LEISURE STUDY – 2018 For North Dorset District Council, West Dorset District Council, and Weymouth & Portland Borough Council March 2018 One Chapel Place, London, W1G 0BG CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 8 2 PLANNING POLICY OVERVIEW 11 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) 11 National Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) 13 Local Planning Policy Context – North Dorset 13 Local Planning Policy Context – West Dorset and Weymouth & Portland 18 Summary 22 3 NATIONAL RETAIL AND TOWN CENTRE TRENDS 23 Retail Trends 23 Special Forms of Trading and Internet Shopping 24 Floorspace ‘Productivity’ Growth 26 Changing Retailer Requirements 27 Vacancy Levels 28 Trends in Retail-Led Investment and Development 29 Independents and Markets 30 Impact of Out-Of-Centre Retailing 32 Summary 32 4 CATCHMENT (STUDY) AREA DEFINITION & SHOPPING PATTERNS 35 Study Area and Zones 35 Household Telephone Interview Survey & Market Share Analysis 36 Convenience Goods – Market Share Analysis 36 Comparison Goods – Market Share Analysis 40 5 TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECKS: METHODOLOGY 44 Engagement of Key Stakeholders 45 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 45 Goad Town Centre Definitions and Floorspace 46 Vacancies 47 Multiple and Independent Retailers 47 Street/Covered Markets 47 Retailer Demands & Requirements 47 Prime Zone A Rents 47 Customer Views and Behaviour 47 Environmental Quality 48 Accessibility 48 Out of Centre Provision 48 New Investment & Potential Development 48 6 BLANDFORD FORUM HEALTH CHECK 49 Context 49 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 49 Vacancies 51 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 52 Markets 52 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 52 Household Survey 52 Environmental Quality 53 Accessibility 54 Out of Centre Provision 55 New Investment & Potential Development 55 Summary 56 2 7 GILLINGHAM HEALTH CHECK 57 Context 57 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 57 Vacancies 59 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 60 Markets 60 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 60 Household Survey 60 Environmental Quality 61 Accessibility 62 Out of Centre Provision 62 New Investment & Potential Development 62 Summary 63 8 SHAFTESBURY HEALTH CHECK 65 Context 65 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 65 Vacancies 67 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 67 Markets 67 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 67 Household Survey 68 Environmental Quality 69 Accessibility 69 Out of Centre Provision 69 New Investment & Potential Development 70 Summary 70 9 STURMINSTER NEWTON HEALTH CHECK 71 Context 71 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 71 Vacancies 73 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 73 Markets 73 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 73 Environmental Quality 74 Accessibility 74 Out of Centre Provision 75 New Investment & Potential Development 75 Summary 75 10 STALBRIDGE HEALTH CHECK 77 Context 77 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 77 Vacancies 78 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 78 Markets 78 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 79 Environmental Quality 79 Accessibility 79 Out of Centre Provision 79 New Investment & Potential Development 80 Summary 80 11 WEYMOUTH HEALTH CHECK 82 Context 82 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 83 3 Vacancies 86 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 86 Markets 86 Retailer Demand & Requirements 86 Prime Zone A Rents 87 Household Survey 87 In-Centre Survey 88 Environmental Quality 89 Accessibility, Dwell Times and Frequency of Visit 90 Out of Centre Provision 91 New Investment & Potential Development 92 Summary 94 12 EASTON (PORTLAND) HEALTHCHECK 95 Context 95 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 95 Vacancies 96 Markets 96 Retailer Demand and Prime Zone A Rents 96 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 97 Environmental Quality 97 Accessibility 97 Summary 97 13 DORCHESTER HEALTH CHECK 99 Context 99 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 99 Vacancies 104 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 104 Markets 104 Retailer Demand & Requirements 105 Prime Zone A Rents 105 Household Survey 105 In-Centre Survey 106 Environmental Quality 107 Accessibility, Dwell Times and Frequency of Visit 108 Out of Centre Provision 110 New Investment & Potential Development 110 Summary 111 14 BRIDPORT HEALTH CHECK 113 Context 113 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 113 Vacancies 115 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 116 Markets 116 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 116 Household Survey 116 Environmental Quality 117 Accessibility 118 Out of Centre Provision 119 New Investment & Potential Development 119 Summary 119 15 SHERBORNE HEALTH CHECK 121 Context 121 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 121 Vacancies 123 4 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 123 Markets 123 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 123 Environmental Quality 123 Accessibility 124 Out of Centre/Town Provision 124 New Investment & Potential Development 125 Summary 125 16 LYME REGIS HEALTH CHECK 126 Context 126 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 126 Vacancies 128 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 129 Markets 129 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 129 Environmental Quality 129 Accessibility 129 Out of Centre Provision 130 New Investment & Potential Development 130 Summary 130 17 BEAMINSTER HEALTH CHECK 132 Context 132 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 132 Vacancies 133 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 133 Markets, Retail Demand and Prime Zone A Rents 133 Environmental Quality 133 Accessibility 134 Out of Centre Provision 134 New Investment & Potential Development 134 Summary 135 18 POUNDBURY HEALTH CHECK 136 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 137 Vacancies 138 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 138 Markets 138 Retailer Demand & Prime Zone A Rents 139 Environmental Quality 139 Accessibility 139 New Investment & Potential Development 140 Summary 140 19 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT 142 The CREATe Model: Key Baseline Assumptions & Forecasts 142 Base Year Population and Projections 143 Base Year Expenditure Per Capita and Forecasts 144 Total Available Expenditure 144 Market Share Analysis (excluding SFT) 145 ‘Inflow’ (Trade Draw) from outside Study Area 145 Total Turnover of Centres and Stores 146 Retail Floorspace Commitments/Allocations 146 CREATe Capacity Forecasts – Approach 148 West Dorset – Capacity Forecasts 148 Weymouth and Portland - Capacity Forecasts 151 North Dorset - Capacity Forecasts 153 5 Summary 156 20 COMMERCIAL LEISURE NEEDS ASSESSMENT 160 Leisure Expenditure Growth 160 Cinema Capacity 162 Eating & Drinking Out 166 Health & Fitness Need 171 Bingo & Gambling Needs 174 Other Commercial Leisure Needs 176 Cultural Activities 177 Hotel Provision 179 Conclusion 181 21 NORTH DORSET - KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS 183 Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment 184 Blandford Forum 186 Gillingham 188 Shaftesbury 192 Sturminster Newton 194 Stalbridge 196 Retail Hierarchy 197 Local Impact Threshold 198 Conclusions 199 22 WEYMOUTH & PORTLAND - KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS 200 Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment 201 Weymouth 203 Easton (Portland) 209 Retail Hierarchy 210 Local Impact Threshold 210 Conclusions 212 23 WEST DORSET - KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS 213 Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment 214 Dorchester 216 Bridport 221 Sherborne 223 Lyme Regis 225 Beaminster 227 Poundbury 229 Retail Hierarchy 230 Local Impact Threshold 230 Conclusions 232 APPENDIX – VOLUME 1 APPENDIX 1: STUDY AREA & ZONES APPENDIX 2: STUDY AREA POPULATION AND PROJECTIONS APPENDIX 3: CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE APPENDIX 4: COMPARISON GOODS EXPENDITURE APPENDIX 5: CONVENIENCE GOODS MARKET SHARES (INCL SFT) APPENDIX 6: COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARES (INCL SFT) 6 APPENDIX 7: NORTH DORSET CENTRES - HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY TABLES APPENDIX 8: WEYMOUTH & PORTLAND CENTRES - HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY TABLES APPENDIX 9: WEST DORSET CENTRES - HEALTH CHECK SUMMARY TABLES APPENDIX 10: CONVENIENCE GOODS TURNOVER, 2017-2036 APPENDIX 11: COMPARISON GOODS TURNOVER, 2017-2036 APPENDIX 12: WEST DORSET CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY APPENDIX 13: WEST DORSET COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY APPENDIX 14: WEYMOUTH & PORTLAND CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY APPENDIX 15: WEYMOUTH & PORTLAND COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY APPENDIX 16: NORTH DORSET CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY APPENDIX 17: NORTH DORSET COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY APPENDIX 18: WEST DORSET – OPPORTUNITY SITES APPENDIX 19: WEYMOUTH & PORTLAND – OPPORTUNITY SITES APPENDIX 20: NORTH DORSET – OPPORTUNITY SITES APPENDIX 21: WEST DORSET - RECOMMENDED BOUNDARIES & FRONTAGES APPENDIX 22: WEYMOUTH & PORTLAND – RECOMMENDED BOUNDARIES & FRONTAGES APPENDIX 23: NORTH DORSET- RECOMMENDED BOUNDARIES & FRONTAGES APPENDIX 24: GLOSSARY APPENDIX – VOLUME 2 APPENDIX 25: NEMS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY RESULTS APPENDIX 26: NEMS IN-CENTRE SURVEY RESULTS 7 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Carter Jonas (‘CJ’) was commissioned by North Dorset District Council, West Dorset District Council and Weymouth & Portland Borough Council (hereafter referred to as the ‘Dorset Councils Partnership’) to produce a ‘Joint Retail and Commercial Leisure Study’ to help inform both plan-making and development management decisions across the three local authority areas. The findings of the study will specifically provide the robust evidence base required to help inform the reviews of the North Dorset Local Plan and the West Dorset, Weymouth and Portland Local Plan. 1.2 The study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance, as well as other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF)