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Changes in Temperature and Rainfall As a Result of Local Climate Change in Pasadena, California

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Changes in Temperature and Rainfall As a Result of Local Climate Change in Pasadena, California hydrology Article Changes in Temperature and Rainfall as a Result of Local Climate Change in Pasadena, California David Eugene Kimbrough ID Water & Power Department, City of Pasadena, 150 S. Robles Ave., Suite 200, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA; [email protected]; Tel.: +1-626-744-7315 Received: 21 March 2018; Accepted: 18 April 2018; Published: 10 May 2018 Abstract: The City of Pasadena is located in southern California, a region which has a Mediterranean climate and where the vast majority of rainfall occurs between October and April, with the period between January and March being the most intense. A significant amount of the local water supply comes from regional rainfall, therefore any changes in precipitation patterns in the area has considerable significance. Hypothesis: Local climate change has been occurring in the Pasadena area over the last 100 years resulting in changes in air temperature and rainfall. Air Temperatures: Between 1886 and 2016, the air temperature in Pasadena, California has increased significantly, from a minimum of 23.8 ◦C in the daytime and 8.1 ◦C at night between 1911 and 1920 to 27.2 ◦C and 13.3 ◦C between 2011 and 2016. The increase in nighttime temperature was uniform throughout the year, however daytime temperatures showed more seasonal variation. There was little change in the daytime temperatures for May through July, but more change the rest of the year. For example, the median daytime temperature for June between 1911 and 1920 was 27.9 ◦C but was 28.7 ◦C between 2011 and 2016, a difference of 0.8 ◦C. In contrast, for October for the same periods, the median daytime temperatures were 25.6 ◦C and 28.9 ◦C, a difference of 3.3 ◦C. Rainfall: There has been a change in local rainfall pattern over the same period. In comparing rainfall between 1883 and 1949 and between 1950 and 2016, there appeared to be less rainfall in the months of October, December, and April while other months seemed to show no change in rainfall. For example, between the two periods mentioned above, the median rainfall in October was 12.4 mm and 8.9 mm, respectively, while for December they were 68.6 mm and 40.4 mm. There was comparatively a smaller change in the median volume of rainfall in April (18.8 mm vs. 17.5 mm). However, between 1883 and 2016, there were 13 with less than 1 mm of rain, 12 of which occurred after 1961. In the same line of logic, no measureable amount of rain occurred for 23 Octobers, 15 of those occurring after 1961. Conclusions: As air temperatures increased over the last 100 years in the Pasadena area, rainfall may have decreased in October, December, and April. Keywords: local climate change; spring drying; rainfall pattern changes 1. Introduction In a recently published study, it has been shown that median air temperatures have increased significantly in the City of Pasadena over the last 100 years [1], which resulted in significant stream flow changes in the Arroyo Seco. The paper argued that these changes in air temperature and stream flow were the result of Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC). It would not be too surprising to speculate that rainfall in the Pasadena area would also be affected by ACC. Some models project changes in rainfall as a result of ACC in the southern California region [2]. This paper examines increasing air temperatures in the Pasadena region, compares them to broader regional changes, and then correlates them with changes in rainfall patterns. Actual local temperature and rainfall data is used and not downscaled global data [3–5]. Hydrology 2018, 5, 25; doi:10.3390/hydrology5020025 www.mdpi.com/journal/hydrology Hydrology 2018, 5, 25 2 of 14 2. Pasadena and Its Environment The City of Pasadena is located in Los Angeles County, at the southern, windward side of the San Gabriel Mountains, which are approximately 1700 m high and 40 km from the Pacific Ocean. Pasadena is located 15 km north-east of downtown Los Angeles and sits atop of the Raymond Basin, an alluvial aquifer in the northwestern corner of the highly urbanized San Gabriel Valley. The area has a Mediterranean climate [6] with the overwhelming majority of rainfall occurring between October and April. Most of Pasadena is approximately 260 m (780 ft) above mean sea level but it ranges from 180 m (540 ft) to 460 m (1380 ft). 3. Study Design 3.1. Hypothesis Southern California has been experiencing ACC and as a result, rainfall patterns have been and continue to be altered in the Pasadena area. The change in climate is shifting air temperatures unevenly which results in daytime and nighttime temperatures deviating at different rates and during different seasons. As a result, any changes in rainfall would not be uniform. 3.2. Study Design A. Organization: There are three parts to this study. The first two parts involves air temperatures in the City of Pasadena for evidence of local climate change. The third part examined changes in rainfall in Pasadena. B. Periods: i. The Study Period covered the 1880s to 2016 depending on the location. ii. The Base Period covered the years 1910–2000 and was used a baseline for changes in temperature. iii. The Control Period covered all years prior to 1950. iv. The Test Period covered 1950 and all subsequent years. v. These Control and Test Periods were selected to divide the rainfall data into two equal halves and the air temperatures into two approximately equal populations. C. Part 1: The average annual surface temperatures differences from the long term mean temperature were determined for each year between the Study Period. Then, the annual average temperature for each was compared to the average temperature of the Base Period. The difference between the annual average temperature of each year and the Base Period was calculated. This was done for the surface temperatures for the entire globe, the Northern Hemisphere, North America, California, and Pasadena. If the average annual temperature difference increased in parallel to changes seen in the broader data sets, there would be evidence for local climate change. D. Part 2: The daytime and nighttime temperatures for Pasadena were analyzed separately. If the daytime or nighttime temperatures increase or decrease significantly between 1885 and 2016, that would be an indication that climate change has been occurring. The record for 1885 was incomplete so it was not used in Part 1, but it would be useful for Part 2 for some months. E. Part 3: The second component involves measuring rainfall in the Pasadena area between 1883 and 2016 to determine if there has been a significant change in rainfall. 3.3. Statistical Procedures A. Normality. The normality of each data set was assessed using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. Air temperatures and rainfall in all study periods were non-normally distributed (p < 0.001); the results were strongly skewed and kurtotic. This means that rather than being distributed in Hydrology 2018, 5, 25 3 of 14 a normal bell-shaped curve with data evenly balanced on both sides of the mean, more data was on one side than the other and the shape of the curve was wider than expected. Almost all of the data in this paper was non-normally distributed. B. Comparisons of Two Groups. When the rainfall and air temperature data were compared pairwise, the Mann–Whitney Rank Sum Test (MWRST) was used. This is the nonparametric equivalent to the Student’s t-test. The U values are calculated and the probability (p) that these represent significant differences was determined. C. Comparisons of More than Two Groups. The air temperature data was grouped based on decade and were compared to the most recent decade, the Kruskal–Wallis One-Way Analysis of Variance on Ranks (KW) was used. If a significant difference was determined to be present, i.e., if the Kruskal–Wallis Statistic (H) is above the critical value, then each group was compared against a control group using Dunn’s Test. Dunn’s Test produces a Studentized Range value, q, which is assessed in the same fashion as the Student’s t-test critical values with probabilities and critical values corresponding to levels of probability, α, of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis. D. Correlations. When temperature data from different locations was compared to determine if they tend to track each other, the Spearman Rank Order Correlation (SPOC) was used. The SPOC is the nonparametric equivalent to the Pearson Product Moment Correlation. The greater the correlation coefficient (R), the more the two sets of data track each other. E. Extreme Values. The rainfall data was also assessed for extremes. The number of driest and wettest months were calculated for each period using the Fisher Exact (FE) Test. The critical value for this study for α was 0.05 for KW, MWRST, SROC, and FE tests [7]. 3.4. Data Acquisition and Assessment A. Air-PWP has extensive written records of atmospheric temperatures in Pasadena dating back to the 1880s, collected mostly by the employees of the City of Pasadena, but the records from 1882 to 1890 were collected by a private resident of Pasadena, Dr. Thomas Rigg. However, there are two significant gaps in the temperature records, one between 1890 and 1893 and the other between 1895 and 1908. The first gap is the time between when Dr. Rigg stopped collecting data and when the City started collecting data. The second gap was caused in part by the loss of paper records stored by the Department of Commerce in San Francisco following the earthquake and fire of 1906.
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