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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment February 2020

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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment February 2020 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment February 2020 Prepared for the City of San Diego by ICF This report was prepared with support from a California Coastal Commission LCP Local Assistance Grant and a Caltrans Adaptation Planning Grant. Executive Summary Sea level rise, wildfires, flooding, extreme heat, and other climate change related hazards pose important Key Findings at a Glance risks to the City of San Diego. In order to begin preparing Many critical City assets and services may be for these risks, the City must first understand how vulnerable to climate change related hazards climate change could affect assets1 and services owned going out into the future. or managed by the City. Climate change also poses risks The most vulnerable asset types include: to privately held land within the City. • Public safety: lifeguard stations; The City therefore completed a Climate Change • Water: water pipes, wastewater pipes, water Vulnerability Assessment, which assessed the pump stations, wastewater pump stations; • Transportation and storm wat er: bridges, vulnerability of City asset types to climate change major arterials, drain pump stations, outfalls; hazards This report details those findings, which are • Open space and environment: conservation summarized in the Key Findings at a Glance box, at right. areas/open space/source water land, community parks; About the Vulnerability Assessment • Additional assets: recreation centers, historical, tribal cultural, and archaeological In its 2015 Climate Action Plan (CAP), the City committed resources. to develop a standalone climate adaptation plan to identify vulnerabilities, take early action, integrate Consequences adaptation into other CAP efforts, capitalize on co- Damage, disruption, or failure of some of these City assets could have major consequences and benefits, and increase local resilience. Completing a impede the ability of the City to continue its vulnerability assessment was the first key step in services and protect public health and safety. developing the climate adaptation plan. Exposure to climate change related hazards could result in consequences such as delays in The vulnerability assessment was completed in two emergency response, impacts to City facilities, phases: damage to historical, tribal cultural, or archaeological resources; or impacts on • Phase 1, the results of which are presented in this protected habitats/species. report, included a high-level vulnerability Based on the number of asset types that are assessment of the City’s selected critical asset types. vulnerable, wildfire is the primary climate-related Phase 1 also assessed the consequences of climate hazard for San Diego, followed by sea level rise. change hazards for each asset type; However, all the hazards investiga ted (wildfire, • Phase 2 involved developing more detailed risk sea level rise, extreme heat events, and changes profiles for selected assets from identified in precipitation) pose potential risks to City assets and services. vulnerable asset types in Phase 1. 1 “Assets” in this context refers to infrastructure, buildings, and other built, natural, and cultural assets owned by the City of San Diego. This vulnerability assessment also considers the exposure of state-owned assets and privately- owned land within the City, such as commercial space, offices, and agricultural land. 1 The Phase 1 assessment focused on four climate change hazards that are especially important for San Diego: • Changes in the frequency and severity of wildfire. Climate change is projected to increase the key drivers of wildfire (high temperatures, dry conditions, and flammable vegetation) in southwestern California, leading to an increase in fire risk. • Sea level rise and related coastal hazards. Sea level in San Diego is expected to rise five to fourteen times faster over the course of this century than it did in the previous century, leading to risks of increased flooding and coastal erosion. • Changes in precipitation, including heavy rain events and drought. Climate models suggest little change in the total amount of annual precipitation over the course of this century but project more variability in rainfall from year to year and more intense transitions between droughts and deluges. • Extreme heat events. By mid-century, heat waves could be occurring in San Diego three to five times more frequently than in the past. For each of these hazards, the City selected specific scenarios to be considered in the vulnerability assessment based on the best available climate science. The selected scenarios and corresponding sources are: • Sea level rise projections for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100 based on the November 2018 update to the California Coastal Commission’s (CCC) Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance and corresponding U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) spatial data; • Best available localized modeling from CoSMoS for coastal erosion in the area, covering shoreline and cliff retreat under a Medium- High Risk Aversion Scenario of sea level rise by 2100 and various options for coastal armoring or retreat;2 • Extreme precipitation scenarios based on the 100-year floodplain and 500-year floodplain Figure 1. FEMA 100- and 500-year floodplains in the City of San Diego. Floodplain data obtained from FEMA. These reflect 2012 FIRMs for all of the City except South Bay, for which the FIRM was last updated in 2016. Map created: 2019. 2 The CCC’s Medium-High Risk Aversion Scenario indicates a 0.5% probability that sea level rise meets or exceeds a certain height. For 2100, this is 7.0 feet in San Diego. The closest CoSMoS increment for this projection is 2 meters (6.6 feet). 2 from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Rate Insurance Maps (FIRMs); • Urban heat island index data from the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA); and • The City of San Diego’s fire hazard and native vegetation zones. The assessment evaluated the vulnerability of critical asset types, which were identified through consultation with City staff based on the following criteria: • If the asset type/resource (or its function) is necessary for continuity of important City operations; • If the asset type/resource (or its function) is a key driver in the City’s economy; • If loss of the asset type/resource would present equity concerns; • If the asset type/resource is critical to safeguarding biological diversity and other environmental priorities. Evaluating vulnerability entailed assessing the exposure of each asset type to each type of climate change hazard, then analyzing the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of each asset type.3 The City combined the scores for these three components to determine a vulnerability score for each type of asset for each hazard. Scores for exposure indicate the likelihood of the asset types experiencing the climate hazard in question, given the best available science for the predicted spatial extent of the hazard and the location of the assets (Table 1). Scores for sensitivity indicate the degree to which a climate hazard might affect an asset type, taking a conservative approach by considering the highest assumed sensitivity within each asset type (Table 2). Scores for adaptive capacity indicate the ability of an asset type to respond to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, and to cope with the consequences (Table 3). Table 1. Rubric for Scoring Exposure of Critical Asset Types to Climate Hazards4 Coastal Erosion Coastal Flooding5 Precipitation Heat Wildfire High Within the zone eroded Within the zone Within the Within the Within the under the “Shoreline inundated by the zone flooded zones with native hold, continued nourish” 0.25 m CoSMoS by the FEMA heat score vegetation CoSMoS beach erosion sea level rise 100-year of UHI6 80 zone or its scenario with 2 m sea scenario (2030) floodplain to 100+ 100-ft buffer 3 Exposure refers to the presence of assets in places that could be affected by climate change hazards (Bedsworth, 2018) citing (IPCC, 2012). Sensitivity refers to the degree to which assets are affected by climate change hazards (California Coastal Commission, 2018). Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of an asset to cope with the consequences of climate change hazards (California Coastal Commission, 2018) citing (Willows, 2003). Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity are widely used indicators of vulnerability. 4 See the Vulnerability Assessment Methodology in the main report for definition of terms in this table. 5 Coastal flooding refers to both daily flooding and the 100-year storm, given the various sea level rise scenarios. 6 The urban heat island (UHI) index is calculated as a temperature differential over time between an urban Census tract and nearby upwind rural reference points. The index is reported in degree-hours per day on a Celsius scale, a measure of heat intensity over time. An increase of one degree Celsius over an eight-hour period would equal eight 3 level rise Medium Within the zone eroded Within the zone Within the Within the Within the under either the “Cliff inundated by the zone flooded zones with 300-ft buffer let it go” cliff erosion or 0.5 to 0.75 m FEMA 500- heat score of native “Shoreline no hold, no CoSMoS sea level year of UHI 40 vegetation nourish” beach erosion rise scenario floodplain to 80 scenarios with 2 m sea (2050) level rise Low N/A (no low score for Within the zone N/A (no low Within the Within the erosion) inundated by the score for zones with fire hazard 1.0 to 2.0 m precipitation) heat score zone outside CoSMoS sea level of UHI 0 to of brush rise scenario 40 management (2100) zone Table 2. Rubric for Scoring Sensitivity of Critical Asset Types to Climate Hazards Score Rationale High If exposed, the asset type becomes damaged beyond repair or destroyed and cannot resume normal function until replaced. Medium If exposed, the asset type is damaged such that repairs are necessary before it can resume full functionality.
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