UKRAINE 2019-2020: ШИРОКІ МОЖЛИВОСТІ, BROAD OPPORTUNITIES, СУПЕРЕЧЛИВІ РЕЗУЛЬТАТИ CONTRADICTORY RESULTS (Аналітичні Оцінки) (Assessments)
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УКРАЇНА 2019-2020: UKRAINE 2019-2020: ШИРОКІ МОЖЛИВОСТІ, BROAD OPPORTUNITIES, СУПЕРЕЧЛИВІ РЕЗУЛЬТАТИ CONTRADICTORY RESULTS (аналітичні оцінки) (Assessments) Україна-2019: позитивні зміни та Ukraine in 2019: Positive Changes приводи для занепокоєння and Reasons for Concern Прогнози-2020 Forecasts for 2020 Громадська думка про підсумки 2019р. Public Opinion on the Results of 2019 Київ Kyiv ЗМІСТ CONTENT І. УКРАЇНА-2019: ПОЗИТИВНІ ЗМІНИ І. UKRAINE IN 2019: POSITIVE CHANGES ТА ПРИВОДИ ДЛЯ ЗАНЕПОКОЄННЯ ....3 AND REASONS FOR CONCERN ............134 Безпека і оборона ........................................4 Security and Defence................................135 Зовнішня політика .......................................9 Foreign Policy ..........................................140 Внутрішня і правова політика ......................16 Domestic and Legal Policy .........................147 Економіка ..................................................47 Economy .................................................178 Індекс економічної спроможності Index of Economic Capacity населення . ...............................................71 of Households ..........................................202 Енергетика ................................................72 Energy Sector ..........................................203 Соціальна сфера .......................................75 Social Sector ...........................................206 Гуманітарна політика ..................................82 Humanitarian Policy ..................................213 ІI. ПРОГНОЗИ-2020 ..................................88 ІI. FORECASTS FOR 2020 .......................219 Безпека і оборона ......................................88 Security and Defence................................219 Зовнішня політика .....................................91 Foreign Policy ..........................................222 Внутрішня і правова політика ......................93 Domestic and Legal Policy .........................224 Економіка ................................................104 Economy .................................................235 Енергетика ..............................................115 Energy Sector ..........................................246 Соціальна сфера .....................................116 Social Sector ...........................................247 Гуманітарна політика ................................120 Humanitarian Policy ..................................257 ІII. ГРОМАДСЬКА ДУМКА ІII. PUBLIC OPINION ON ПРО ПІДСУМКИ 2019р. ....................122 THE RESULTS OF 2019 .......................253 ɇɚɞɜɢɞɚɧɧɹɦɩɪɚɰɸɜɚɥɢ Authors: Ⱥɜɬɨɪɢ±ɘəɤɢɦɟɧɤɨ ɤɟɪɿɜɧɢɤɩɪɨɟɤɬɭ ȺȻɢɱɟɧɤɨ Yakymenko Y. (Project Manager), Bychenko A., Bielawski M., ɆȻɿɥɹɜɫɶɤɢɣȼȽɨɥɭɛȼɁɚɦɹɬɿɧȼɅɨɝɚɰɶɤɢɣɄɆɚɪɤɟɜɢɱ Holub V., Zamyatin V., Lohatskiy V., Markevych K., Melnyk O., ɈɆɟɥɶɧɢɤɆɆɿɳɟɧɤɨȼɈɦɟɥɶɱɟɧɤɨɆɉɚɲɤɨɜ Mishchenko M., Omelchenko V., Pashkov M., Pyshchulina O., ɈɉɢɳɭɥɿɧɚɈɊɨɡɭɦɧɢɣȼɋɿɞɟɧɤɨȺɋɬɟɰɶɤɿɜɉɋɬɟɰɸɤ Rozumniy O., Sidenko V., Steskiv A., Stetsyuk P., ɆɋɭɧɝɭɪɨɜɫɶɤɢɣɋɑɟɤɭɧɨɜɚɅɒɚɧɝɿɧɚȼɘɪɱɢɲɢɧ Sunhurovskiy M., Chekunova S., Shangina L., Yurchyshyn V. Ɋɟɞɚɤɬɨɪɢ±ȺɑɟɪɧɨɜɚȽɉɚɲɤɨɜɚȽȻɚɥɚɧɨɜɢɱ Editors: Balanovych H., Chernova A., Pashkova H. Ⱦɢɡɚɣɧɿɜɟɪɫɬɤɚ±ɌɈɜɫɹɧɢɤɈɒɚɩɬɚɥɚ Design and layout: Shaptala O., Ovsyanyk T. UKRAINE 2019-2020: BROAD OPPORTUNITIES, CONTRADICTORY RESULTS UKRAINE IN 2019: POSITIVE CHANGES AND REASONS FOR CONCERN year 2019 was a milestone for Ukraine in terms of maintaining internal political stability The and foreign policy subjectivity. Today, it is safe to say that the Ukrainian society has successfully passed this decisive point, preserving civil unity and willingness to protect national sovereignty. The key achievement of 2019 was the preservation of the European and Euro-Atlantic course by the new government, including continued cooperation with the EU within the Association Agreement, resumption of work of the NATO-Ukraine Commission, further reformation of the Armed Forces in line with Alliance standards and joint military exercises. The dual, presidential and parliamentary, elections served as a peculiar “safety valve of democracy”, which gave vent to frustration and disappointment accumulated in society. Though the electoral “reboot” of power was accompanied by the extensive political turbulence, it put an end to a long-lasting crisis of confidence in key government institutions. Given the permanent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty on the part of Russia, it is particularly important that democratic and legitimate transfer of power has never been questioned either domestically or internationally. The renewed political system of Ukraine is characterised by a concentration of the state power around the President. His initiatives and official decrees go far beyond constitutional powers but are demonstratively accepted “for execution” by a single-party parliamentary majority and the Cabinet. The social legitimacy of the new government is primarily based on the personal popularity of Volodymyr Zelenskyy; there are virtually no other charismatic leaders in the ruling team. The concentration of power around the presidential structure and a rather high level of trust in key government institutions have opened a new window of opportunity for effective reforms in Ukraine. However, the new reformers lack a systematic approach and a thorough analysis of the effects of changes made in “turbo-regime”. Moreover, these opportunities are limited by the objective foreign policy and macroeconomic realities, which can be hardly called favourable for Ukraine. Moreover, they do not always meet public expectations, ignited by electoral rhetoric. In particular, it concerns the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing hostilities in Donbas. The desire to end the bloodshed and reintegrate the occupied territories, declared by the newly elected President, has stumbled across Russia’s unacceptable demands, which, if implemented, may lead to a political collapse in Ukraine. Therefore, the overall dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation during 2019 points at the stabilisation of the long-lasting low-intensity conflict. Unfortunately, there is still no progress in addressing another key problem for Ukraine – the difficult socio-economic situation. Quite the contrary, many socio-economic indicators have deteriorated in the second half of 2019, leading to a decline in households’ wellbeing. The government is still unable to boost economic growth. During the year, there was no inflow of investment, while its share in the GDP structure has notably decreased. Against the backdrop of sinking production output of Ukrainian industry, the country’s trade deficit continues to grow. At the same time, the key components of the new government’s radical-liberal economic paradigm – deregulation, privatisation and protection of private property – do not quite meet the expectations of the majority of Ukrainians who seek easing of tariff pressure and improving of social standards. The same is true for the introduction of a free land market, which is not supported by most citizens. The mismatch between expectations and outcomes already during the year 2020 can lead in the long run to dramatic disappointment of Ukrainians with their recently elected government. 134 UKRAINE IN 2019: POSITIVE CHANGES AND REASONS FOR CONCERN SECURITY AND DEFENCE As of the end of 2019, the overall state of the national security has not changed fundamentally compared to the previous year. This can be viewed as both positive and negative. The state and society have successfully passed the test of presidential and parliamentary elections in the face of Russian military aggression and multiple external and internal challenges to stability and security. However, the lack of real progress in settling the Russia-Ukraine armed conflict remains the greatest threat to the country’s security and more importantly, to millions of citizens living in the occupied territories and in the immediate proximity to the conflict zone. The dramatic reboot of power following the elections produced high public expectations and, at the same time, concerns about the ways and ability of the new authorities to achieve the declared goals. An unbiased analysis, focused primarily on the period of the new government’s activities, seeks not only to give preliminary assessments but to shape a better understanding of future steps and possible scenarios for the developments in the national security sphere. Security environment and the Russia- of talks at the highest level after a three-year hiatus are Ukraine armed conflict certainly encouraging. However, the overall dynamics of the conflict during 2019 points at the stabilisation of Throughout 2019, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has ongoing low-intensity conflict rather than the signs of a been in the spotlight of the country’s social and political 3 settlement process. life and electoral races, also remaining a priority on the international agenda. At that, both overall security Most Ukrainian and foreign experts believe that the environment (its nature and the relevance of challenges main result of the Normandy Four meeting was the fact and threats) and trends remained virtually unchanged that President Zelenskyy did not cross the “red lines” compared to the previous year. “Simple solutions” by (federalisation, elections prior to fulfilment of security President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (stop shooting, start conditions, control over the border) and did not resort a dialogue, and the like) may have contributed to his to