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River Dodder Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan

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River Dodder Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan RIVER DODDER CATCHMENT FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS REPORT OCTOBER 2008 River Dodder Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study Hydrological Analysis Report DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Client Dublin City Council Project Title River Dodder Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management Study Document Title Hydrological Analysis Report Document No. MDW0259Rp0016 No. of DCS TOC Text List of Tables List of Figures This Document Appendices Comprises 1 1 92 1 1 6 Rev. Status Author(s) Reviewed By Approved By Office of Origin Issue Date F01 Approval C. O’Donnell B. Elsaesser B. Elsaesser West Pier 31.10.08 River Dodder Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan Hydrological Analysis Report IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER – HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS Please read below the disclaimer, and limitations associated with this report to avoid incorrect interpretation of the information and data provided. DISCLAIMER Dublin City Council, South Dublin County Council, Dun Laoghaire and Rathdown County Council and The Office of Public Works make no representations, warranties or undertakings about any of the information provided in this report including, without limitation, on its accuracy, completeness, quality or fitness for any particular purpose. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, neither the State, Dublin City Council, South Dublin County Council, Dun Laoghaire and Rathdown County Council nor The Office of Public Works nor any of their members, officers, associates, consultants, employees, affiliates, servants, agents or other representatives shall be liable for loss or damage arising out of, or in connection with, the use of, or the inability to use, the information provided in this report including, but not limited to, indirect or consequential loss or damages, loss of data, income, profit, or opportunity, loss of, or damage to, property and claims of third parties, even if Dublin City Council, South Dublin County Council, Dun Laoghaire and Rathdown County Council and The Office of Public Works has been advised of the possibility of such loss or damages, or such loss or damages were reasonably foreseeable. Dublin City Council, South Dublin County Council, Dun Laoghaire and Rathdown County Council and The Office of Public Works reserves the right to change the content and / or presentation of any of the information provided in this report at their sole discretion, including these notes and disclaimer. This disclaimer, guidance notes and conditions of use shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with, the laws of the Republic of Ireland. If any provision of these disclaimer, guidance notes and conditions of use shall be unlawful, void or for any reason unenforceable, that provision shall be deemed severable and shall not affect the validity and enforceability of the remaining provisions. UNCERTAINTY Although great care and modern, widely-accepted methods have been used in the preparation of this report there is inevitably a range of inherent uncertainties and assumptions made during the estimation of design flows. These can arise due to: • a lack of recorded flood data at the specific location, • short periods of recorded flood flows where they have been recorded, • approximations in the hydrological analysis in representing physical reality, • assumptions in the hydrological analysis. BEST AVAILABLE INFORMATION Hydrological and Hydrometric datasets are constantly changing and subsequently the statistical analysis of these datasets is only correct at the time of assessment. The Hydrological Analysis described in this report used the best available information at the time utilising best practice methodologies but it is acknowledged that new methodologies and/or recently recorded data could have a minor impact on the estimated design flows. However under the requirements of the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), and its transposing legislation (SI 122 of 2010) into Irish law, this report will be reviewed every 6 years and changes to methodologies and/or datasets will be incorporated within a subsequent revised version. MDW0259Rp0016 i Rev F01 River Dodder Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan Hydrological Analysis Report TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 OBJECTIVES OF REPORT .................................................................................................. 1 2 CATCHMENT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................... 3 2.1 RIVER SYSTEM................................................................................................................. 3 2.1.1 Dodder Main Channel ...................................................................................... 3 2.1.2 Tallaght Stream: ............................................................................................... 4 2.1.3 Owendoher:...................................................................................................... 4 2.1.4 Whitechurch:..................................................................................................... 4 2.1.5 Little Dargle: ..................................................................................................... 4 2.1.6 Dundrum Slang: ............................................................................................... 4 2.1.7 Bohernabreena Reservoir System ................................................................... 4 2.2 WATER LEVEL GAUGING STATIONS................................................................................... 5 2.3 LAND USE DATA .............................................................................................................. 9 2.3.1 Current Development Scenario........................................................................ 9 2.3.2 Future Development Scenarios...................................................................... 11 2.3.3 Afforestation ................................................................................................... 12 2.3.4 Deforestation .................................................................................................. 13 2.3.5 Most Likely Future Development Scenario .................................................... 13 3 HYDROLOGICAL DATA ......................................................................................................... 14 3.1 METEOROLOGICAL DATA................................................................................................ 14 3.2 HYDROMETRIC DATA ...................................................................................................... 17 3.3 COASTAL DATA.............................................................................................................. 18 3.3.1 Joint Probability Assessment of Extreme Coastal and Fluvial Events........... 18 3.4 HISTORIC FLOODING DATA ............................................................................................. 20 3.4.1 River Dodder Main Channel........................................................................... 20 3.4.2 Tributaries....................................................................................................... 21 3.5 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS........................................................................................ 23 3.5.1 Effect of Climate Change on Precipitation ..................................................... 23 3.5.2 Effect of Climate Change on Coastal Water Levels....................................... 28 4 METHODOLOGY.....................................................................................................................30 4.1 RATING CURVE ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 31 4.2 RAINFALL RUNOFF MODEL CONSTRUCTION & CALIBRATION............................................. 31 4.2.1 NAM Model..................................................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Urban Model................................................................................................... 34 4.2.3 MIKE Combined Model .................................................................................. 34 4.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 35 4.4 EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS (EVA)................................................................................... 35 4.5 REGIONALISATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS .......................................................... 36 MDW0259Rp0016 ii Rev F01 River Dodder Catchment Flood Risk Management Plan Hydrological Analysis Report 4.6 COASTAL DATA.............................................................................................................. 36 4.7 SUMMARY OF METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................ 37 5 ANALYSIS OF HYDROMETRIC AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA...................................... 39 5.1 RATING CURVE ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 39 5.1.1 Rating Curve Check ....................................................................................... 39 5.1.2 Rating Curve Application...............................................................................
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